Rising Tide

National Overview

Week Seven nearly brought complete chaos, but instead merely served to illustrate just how vast the gap is between Alabama and the rest of the nation. Ohio State, recent recipient of a  now-hilariously rose-colored profile on ESPN, struggled for most of four quarters to deal with Wisconsin. Clemson, never the powerhouse it was expected to be this season, got a lucky overtime escape against North Carolina State.

Alabama? Oh, that's right. The Crimson Tide stopped just short of desecrating the graves of Tennessee's ancestors in a not-as-close-as-the-score-looks 49-10 massacre in Knoxville. Bama once again scored on defense and on special teams, bringing its season total of non-offensive touchdowns to 11, and held the supposedly potent Volunteer attack to a pitiful 163 yards. This is what a dynasty looks like.

Elsewhere, Florida knocked off Missouri to take the inside track to the SEC East crown, while Oklahoma, Baylor and West Virginia all stayed undefeated in Big 12 play (sure is amazing how the Big 12's best teams never play each other until November, isn't it?). In a potentially relevant late-season development, mid-majors Boise State and Western Michigan also remained undefeated on the year. But all of that pales in comparison to what happened in the top 10 this week.

Alabama's stunning dominance revealed once again what a farce the polls are. With three top 10 teams - Texas A&M, Washington and Michigan - all idle, that didn't figure to be the case, but thanks to the poor performance of the rest of the alleged elite, we saw teams for who they really are this weekend. Ohio State? Not on Bama's level. Clemson? The Tigers have been begging for someone to put them out of their misery. They're frauds. Louisville? The team that forced five turnovers and still lost to Clemson nearly lost to Duke this week. Frauds as well. Nebraska? Nearly lost to Indiana. Get out of here. By the way, the Tennessee team Alabama just throttled on the road took A&M to two overtimes in College Station.

So it's clear that once again it's just Alabama's world to conquer. But who else will make the Playoff? You might not need to be a major-conference champion this year to get it done (particularly if you lose a close game to a certain Crimson Tide squad and go unbeaten the rest of the way). The setup for such a scenario could begin this week.

We get started Thursday with a pair of potentially impactful games in Miami (FL) - Virginia Tech and BYU - Boise State. Friday, San Diego State tries to stay perfect in the Mountain West against rival San Jose State. The weekend truly begins with an important MAC showdown (Central Michigan at Toledo) and continues with a crucial Big Ten West game in Wisconsin - Iowa.

At noon Saturday, Colorado travels to Stanford with an opportunity to clinch a bowl bid for the first time in a decade. Memphis is also at Navy for a huge AAC contest in the midday slate, along with TCU - West Virginia and the titanic Texas A&M - Alabama showdown.

In the afternoon Arkansas is at Auburn for another SEC West battle, while Ohio State travels to Penn State and Ole Miss is at LSU. Sadly, the Pac-12 slate is pretty quiet, and the nightcap is relegated to a lone game - Washington State at Arizona State. It's a decent week overall, but the meat of the schedule is in the morning and early afternoon.

Playoff Poll

There's zero doubt about who belongs at the top of this list. It's the other three selections that get a little tricky.

First Tier

Alabama
Ohio State
Clemson
Texas A&M

Alabama is running away with the top spot to an absurd degree. I agonized over whether OSU and Clemson should get moved around for their struggles, but ultimately decided the wins outweighed the less-than-stellar performances. A&M stays here, because, as I will explain later, the Aggies might not need to win this game.

Second Tier

Michigan
Washington
Florida

The idle Wolverines and Huskies can't move up, although Michigan certainly had to feel good seeing Ohio State give up more points in the first quarter to Wisconsin than UM allowed in an entire game. As I noted last week, the Gators are now in prime position to take the SEC East and sneak into the Playoff.

Third Tier

Boise State
Western Michigan
Louisville

Louisville wasn't great against Duke, which doesn't bode well for the Cardinals' chances, given that this team needs not one but two Clemson losses to even have a shot at the ACC championship. Boise State and Western Michigan, on the other hand, could garner Playoff invites with unbeaten records, which are entirely within reach.

Pac-12 Report

Well, unlike previous weeks, this wasn't a complete disaster. Banged up and without several key players, Utah nevertheless managed to get a victory at Oregon State in a game that was a double win for the conference. Not only did the Utes stay on track in the South, they allowed the Beavers to look decent in the loss. Promising sign for OSU.

In Tucson, USC actually came through for the first time in recent memory and did exactly what the conference needed it to do: thoroughly dominate a lesser opponent. The Wildcats, now sitting at 0-4 in league play and 2-5 overall, were already out of the Pac-12 race. Better that they provide a blowout win for a conference team than a killer upset. Don't sleep on the Trojans. I had them winning the South with a 7-2 record, and a strong late-season push could still see that happen.

Stanford defeated Notre Dame in perhaps the most Stanford-like fashion imaginable, scoring a pick-six, a safety resulting from a bad shotgun snap, and a fumble recovery in the end zone to win despite getting outgained and committing three turnovers to the Irish's two. The Cardinal still have time to engage one of their signature late-season turnarounds, though with their current Pac-12 record they'll mercifully be shut out of the conference title game.

Washington State got an important, though slightly scary, win over UCLA to keep an unblemished conference record. I maintain the Cougars are on a collision course with rival Washington for an historic Apple Cup showdown that will decide the North, but there's obviously still a month left before we get to that point. UCLA, on the other hand, has stumbled into a tailspin, albeit one accelerated by injuries (quarterback Josh Rosen did not play in Pullman).

The final space in the weekly recap has to go to Colorado, which dominated Arizona State in a manner unexpected even for those of us now firmly on the Buffaloes bandwagon. To put it simply, CU was awesome on Saturday. I expected the Buffs to win, but not like that. Colorado held ASU to 3-of-18 third down conversions, racked up a 580-199 yardage edge (including 315-50 on the ground) and held the ball for seven minutes longer than the Sun Devils. We seem to have entered a strange new era of the Pac-12 in which the Buffaloes are a power.

Next week, we start Friday night in Berkeley, where Oregon has one last chance to save its 2016 campaign from complete infamy. The Ducks and Golden Bears are two of three Pac-12 teams ranked in the bottom 10 in the nation in total defense (UO is 127th; Cal is 121st, Arizona State is 123rd. For the record, the closest other major conference team is Texas Tech at 117th, and Arizona ranks 114th. That's four of the five worst Power Five defenses in the Pac-12). Needless to say, expect a shootout between Oregon and Cal, as the contest not only features awful defenses but the 10th (Bears) and 20th (Ducks) ranked offenses in the country. The loser will fall into North cellar.

The weekend slate opens with Colorado at Stanford. The Buffs will almost assuredly play in the postseason, but I'm sure they'd prefer to get that all-important sixth win out of the way on the first try. Stanford is in shambles after getting thrashed by the Washington schools, and the Cardinal probably shouldn't have beaten Notre Dame, but who knows what will happen back home on the Farm? This team remains talented and formidable, even if CU should eventually pull out a win.

Injury-riddled Utah and UCLA teams meet in Pasadena in the midday slate as well. Utah had better show up for this game; the Bruins have been very disappointing but are still good enough to win outright, especially if QB Josh Rosen is able to go again. UCLA's secondary, the strength of its defense, matches up very well with erratic Utes passer Troy Williams. Utah will once again have to lean on its defense and rushing attack.

Oregon State has been better than expected the past two weeks, notching a sweet upset of Cal and playing Utah very close. But those games were in the friendly confines of Reser Stadium, and it'll be a different story in Seattle when the Beavers take on a powerful Washington team coming off a bye. The Huskies' defense will likely eat the middling OSU offense alive; I fully expect another big UW win.

The late game features Washington State at Arizona State. The Cougars had to hold off UCLA in the fourth, while ASU got boat raced by Colorado. As mentioned previously, the Sun Devils have one of the nation's worst defenses, which does not bode well against Luke Falk & Co. ASU could turn this into a shootout, but I'd still favor the Cougs in that scenario. Wazzu should win.

Heisman Watch

It feels a bit odd to move a player up who didn't play, but with the struggles of the other top guys on this list there really was no other choice. I said last week J.T. Barrett was my leader by a slim margin, and his up-and-down performance meant he had to drop.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington

Browning was off last week but is still statistically the best passer in the country. He has a chance to do some major damage this week against Oregon State and should catapult himself into the Heisman front-runners.

J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State.

Barrett struggled early against Wisconsin but did come through in the second half and overtime to keep OSU undefeated. I'm against lauding a guy for bringing his team back from a self-created hole, but this game was largely a wash for Barrett.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama

Once again: freshman, unlikely, etc. Still, Hurts rebounded from a not-his-fault strip-sack to lead a bludgeoning of Tennessee on the road, and his steadiness on third downs in particular was impressive in a hostile environment. With the way Bama is playing, someone from the Tide will need to be in New York.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Jackson completed just 50 percent of his passes against Duke and needed a late roughing-the-kicker penalty to avoid a loss to the Blue Devils. He's electric, but unless the Cardinals win the ACC he'll probably have to settle for an invite to the ceremony.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson's dreadful pick-six against NCSU turned the game around and should have cost Clemson the game, but the Tigers got lucky so Watson stays on this list. His performances continue to hobble his candidacy.

Random Thoughts and Observations

There was widespread outcry after the initial Playoff committee declined to include a conference champion mandate in its criteria, but this season might prove that decision was sound. While it's understandably difficult to reconcile the idea that a non-major-conference champion can win the national title within college football's conference-dependent environment, it's probably good to not punish great teams for playing in strong leagues. If (perhaps, when) the Playoff expands to eight teams, the concept will become inevitable.

It's relevant in 2016 because the collapse of the Big 12 and Pac-12 portends a Playoff field without a two-loss Big 12 winner (Oklahoma) or a one-loss Pac-12 winner (Washington or Utah). The Pac-12 even has a nightmare scenario in which Washington State wins the title after opening the year with losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State. If that occurs, and the Broncos are unbeaten (absolutely in play), Boise State would have to get the nod over the Cougars.

But what about Texas A&M? The Aggies could beat Alabama this week and render the question moot; I believe a team needs a strong passing offense to beat the Tide this year, and A&M checks that box. However, a much more likely scenario has Bama winning in Tuscaloosa, while the Aggies go on to finish 11-1. Would such an A&M team be worthy of Playoff consideration? Consider a disaster ACC finish that sees a multiple-loss North Carolina team upset Clemson, knocking the conference out of contention, along with Washington State winning the Pac-12. It would be hard to keep Texas A&M out if the team manages a close loss this weekend.

In other news, Michigan has moved to third following Clemson's near upset, which is reasonable by poll standards. But the reason I continue to keep the Wolverines out of my first tier is simple: I still don't think they've played anyone. UM has the nation's top-ranked defense, but look at the offenses those numbers have come against: Hawai'i, UCF, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Colorado. There's exactly one top-50 attack in there (Colorado), and lo and behold, the Buffaloes put up 28 on Michigan before an injury to QB Sefo Liufao cost CU the game. The Wolverines are good, but I'm not at all convinced this is a top-five team.

2016 Stanzi Awards

I didn't think anything could top last week's masterpiece, when six players earned individual awards and three more more games produced Double Stanzis. It turns out I spoke far, far too soon. Week Seven gave us the greatest collection of performances in Stanzi history, with three individual awards and an astonishing seven Double Stanzis. Let's recap this gloriousness!

Week Seven Awards

Riley Neal, Ball State
Opponent: Buffalo
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 10

Quinton Flowers, South Florida
Opponent: Connecticut
Performance: Two INT, won by 15

Phillip Walker, Temple
Opponent: Central Florida
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by one

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Taysom Hill, BYU
Opponent: Mississippi State
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven in OT

Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State
Opponent: BYU
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven in OT

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, won by five

Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Nebraska
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), lost by five

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Deondre Francois, Florida State
Opponent: Wake Forest
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11

John Wolford, Wake Forest
Opponent: Florida State
Performance: Two INT, lost by 11

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan
Opponent: Northern Illinois
Performance: Two INT, won by six in triple OT

Anthony Maddie, Northern Illinois
Opponent: Central Michigan
Performance: Two INT, lost by six in double OT

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Alex McGough, Florida International
Opponent: Charlotte
Performance: Two INT, won by one

Hasaan Klugh, Charlotte
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by one

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Ryan Burns, Stanford
Opponent: Notre Dame
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Opponent: Stanford
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), lost by seven

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Luke Falk, Washington State
Opponent: UCLA
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by six

Mike Fafaul, UCLA
Opponent: Washington State
Performance: Two INT, lost by six

2016 Standings

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
Kenny Hill, TCU: 1
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Sam Darnold, USC: 1
Troy Williams, Utah: 1
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 1
Phillip Walker, Temple: 1
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan: 1
Darrell Gerretson, Oregon State: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1
Taysom Hill, BYU: 1
Ryan Burns, Stanford: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Luke Falk, Washington State: 1
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
Deondre Francois, Florida State: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
David Blough, Purdue: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Quinton Flowers, South Florida: 1


Two more multiple-week winners have joined the fray, both from mid-majors, in Riley Neal of Ball State and Alex McGough of Florida International! We now have five players tied for the season lead! This is shaping up to be the finest season in Stanzi history.