National Overview
Well, scratch Louisville. My thoughts at the end of last week's blog turned out to be surprisingly prescient, as the Cardinals went down in embarrassing fashion at Houston on Thursday night. All of Louisville's weaknesses - lack of elite talent, an unsophisticated offense, and a schedule loaded with cream puffs - came back to haunt Lamar Jackson and Company when the Cards went up against an opponent with equal (or probably greater) talent across the board.
But a landscape-shifting upset this was not; as I said last week, Louisville was already extremely unlikely to make the Playoff. Clemson took care of business by trouncing Wake Forest on Saturday, ensuring the Tigers will play in the ACC Championship. Without that feather in the otherwise unremarkable cap that is Louisville's resume, the Cardinals would have been hard-pressed to provide convincing evidence to the Playoff committee for their inclusion. The loss to Houston merely confirms the inevitable.
Alabama did what Bama does every year against its annual FCS foe: barely show up. The Crimson Tide have a habit of sleepwalking through their November Iron Bowl tune-up, and this year was no exception. What, then, were Michigan and Ohio State's excuses this week? The rivals needed second-half stands to hold off bad conference opponents, teams they had to beat to ensure this week's clash would mean something. Yet more evidence that neither is ready to face Bama.
In forehead-slappingly irritating news, Oklahoma got out to a huge lead and held off West Virginia, indicating that the Sooners are probably going to run the table in the Big 12 and cause a lot of consternation in the Playoff debate in two weeks (although Oklahoma State will have something to say about that). Are we really going to do this again? The Sooners lost twice in September. They should be out. And yet I have a sinking feeling they might sneak in to the final four.
The Pac-12 picture will finally become clear this week, as Utah's home loss to Oregon simplified matters. The Utes can only play spoiler at Colorado, with a Buffaloes loss sending USC to the title game. The Apple Cup will decide the North, with a potential Washington State - Colorado rematch looming.
The MACtion gets us started with a bang Tuesday night, as both Ohio and Miami (OH) play at 4 p.m. Pacific with the East on the line. If the Bobcats beat Akron, Ohio takes the division. An Ohio loss coupled with a Miami (OH) win over Ball State would hand the Redhawks the title. Both contenders are at home. Let the mid-major lunacy begin!
Thanksgiving Day brings an unholy new-age division rivalry with LSU visiting Texas A&M. Remember when this day was reserved for the Lone Star Showdown between A&M and Texas? Conference realignment has had some frustrating consequences.
That being said, it is rivalry week, despite the fragmentation to some classic series that border on crimes against the sport. North Carolina - North Carolina State is the Friday wake-up call, followed by that all-important Apple Cup at 12:30 p.m. At 2 p.m. there's an awesome MAC showdown between Toledo and undefeated Western Michigan that will decide the West crown, and finally the glorious hatred of Arizona State - Arizona in the Territorial Cup at 6 p.m.
Saturday is the treasure trove. At 9 a.m.: Georgia Tech at Georgia, Kentucky at Louisville, Kansas -Kansas State, and third-ranked Michigan at second-ranked Ohio State. But that's far from all of it. We also get Purdue - Indiana, Illinois - Northwestern, Central Florida at South Florida, Virginia at Virginia Tech, and Syracuse at Pittsburgh, all to start us off in the morning!
The midday slate brings more goodies: The Egg Bowl (Mississippi State - Ole Miss) and the Iron Bowl (Auburn - Alabama), Notre Dame at USC, Michigan State at Penn State, Minnesota at Wisconsin, Nevada at UNLV, and North Texas at UTEP. Nebraska at Iowa, while not a rivalry, could also have huge Big Ten West implications.
As we approach prime time, the Rumble in the Rockies pits Utah against Colorado, while South Carolina meets Clemson, Tennessee travels to Vanderbilt, and Florida and Florida State square off in Tallahassee. It's an utterly delightful day jam-packed with the best the wonky 2016 season has to offer.
Playoff Poll
In keeping with last week's rankings, I will again designate a special tier for the nation's best team.
God-King Tier
Alabama
Simply the best team in the country in every way.
First Tier
Ohio State
Clemson
Washington
J.T. Barrett has had some struggles this year, but I still feel far better about OSU's quarterback situation than Michigan's. John O'Korn and Wilton Speight are mediocre-at-best passers, and the Buckeyes should be able to exploit that. Now, if OSU doesn't win the division (which is likely), things will get interesting. Clemson wrapped up the Atlantic with ease and should win the ACC Championship, while Washington - despite some damaging injuries - is still the Pac-12 favorite.
Second Tier
Michigan
Wisconsin
The good news for the Wolverines is their path to the Playoff is far simpler; winning out would add a Power Five title to their name, with a final four spot imminent. The bad news is that Ohio State will probably win this week. Wisconsin's two close losses (to OSU and UM) are now essentially viewed as honorable battle wounds, and the Badgers would likely make the Playoff with a division and then conference championship.
Third Tier
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Penn State
Western Michigan
This tier represents the long-shots, in descending order of likelihood to make the Playoff. The Sooners are the biggest name and have the best chance, with a potential nine-game winning streak and undefeated Big 12 resume to their name. Oklahoma State is in an odd situation given that official-aided loss to Central Michigan, but with an upset in the Bedlam Game the Cowboys would have a very strong case for inclusion.
Colorado could finish 11-2 with a conference title and two competitive losses (to Michigan and USC), but I still think the chances are pretty slim. It'll be hard for the committee to not use CU's recent history (of being terrible) against the Buffs. At Penn State, the Nittany Lions could actually win the Big Ten crown (unlikely though that may be), but the team also has the worst loss of any potential Playoff squad with that 49-10 stomping at the hands of Michigan. It's hard to see the committee taking PSU. And of course, there's Western Michigan: unappreciated, undervalued, underrated.
Pac-12 Report
Well, it came too late to save the season - or possibly Mark Helfrich's job - but Oregon got the title-race-changing upset of the season by knocking Utah out of South contention. I'm not shocked the Utes lost, as the team had been performing unevenly all year, but it is a surprise to see it come at the hands of the Ducks, who have been so very bad in 2016.
No matter. With Colorado's strong finish against Washington State (along with Washington and USC's wins), we have a simplified path to the championship game. Washington or WSU will win the North on Friday in the Apple Cup. If Colorado beats Utah, the Buffaloes win the South; if the Utes win, USC will play the North champ.
But first, the other games. I adore the Arizona - Arizona State rivalry, which supplanted Oregon - Washington several years ago as the nastiest in the Pac-12. Arizona needs a win at home to prevent a winless conference season, while ASU, despite being the better team, has been racked with injuries. I'm going with the Sun Devils in Tucson, because ASU can still score, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats make it a game or even win.
Notre Dame - USC is our national intersectional rivalry, and this year it's pretty easy to pick. The Fighting Irish have been a mess all season, while SC has come on very strong and looks to end the 2016 campaign with eight straight wins. The Trojans should win without issue.
The other, far more ridiculous, non-league game being played is Stanford hosting Rice. I'm not sure why the Cardinal have started this tradition in recent years of playing teams that aren't Cal in rivalry week, but here's another example. Rice is awful and Stanford will win easily. Why is this game being played in November and not September?
Oregon and Oregon State meet in Corvallis this year for the Civil War sporting identical 2-6 conference records. The Ducks are unquestionably the more talented team, but up until last week I would have picked the Beavers in a heartbeat. UO has simply looked like a team going through the motions to play out the end of the season - until the upset of Utah. Now I'm more inclined to favor the Ducks... but I still can't do it. OSU has waited years for an opportunity to get revenge in this rivalry, and Oregon has been far too erratic to trust. It's a toss-up, but I lean Oregon State.
UCLA is at Cal for a quasi-rivalry game to end the year, with both sitting at 4-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference. I thought both teams put up a nice fight last week against superior rival squads (USC and Stanford, respectively). The Bruins have the luxury of going up against the nation's second-worst defense in this contest, but they'll be doing it with a backup QB in Mike Fafaul whose play has been unpredictable. Cal has a more talented offense but there's no denying the role the Bears' defense has played in their current four-game losing streak. It's another toss-up; I favor Cal in a loss that will get Jim Mora fired at UCLA.
Finally, there's the two games that will decide the teams in the conference championship. The Apple Cup hasn't had these kind of stakes in years, unless you count the infamous 2008 game between 0-11 Washington and 1-11 WSU (The Cougars won 16-13 in double overtime). The rivals enter this contest under very different circumstances: both sit at 7-1 in Pac-12 play, with only Wazzu's two head-scratching losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State to start the season preventing this from being a top-10 showdown. With all due respect to Colorado, the Washington schools are probably the two best teams in the conference.
The Huskies looked nigh-untouchable in the league until two weeks ago, winning every game but one by double digits. Then came the nightmare against USC and the injuries to the defense. This week, former starting defensive back Darren Gardenhire curiously announced his departure from the program. I had Washington State upsetting UW before the season began, but started leaning more and more toward Washington as the year progressed. Now, the picture is much less clear. Luke Falk and the WSU offense are really good, even with the loss of star receiver River Cracraft. The Cougs have even showed an increased ability to run the ball this year. There's real doubt as to whether Washington's front, so good for most of the year, can get consistent pressure AND cover Wazzu's skill players.
That question would be less important if the Huskies' offense was still humming, but UW stalled out against USC and was sloppy early last week versus ASU. Jake Browning has thrown two picks in each of the past two games after just three in the previous nine contests. For Washington to win, he has to rebound, and the Huskies have to be able to get some stops defensively so this game doesn't turn into a shootout. That's where Mike Leach thrives, and you'd better believe the WSU coach will have his guys ready after a hard-fought loss to Colorado. However, Chris Petersen is an excellent coach as well, and I ultimately trust him to find a way to get this one last win. With much hesitation, I give UW the slightest of edges over Wazzu.
The Utah - Colorado matchup seems more clear-cut. While Utah is undoubtedly a talented team, the Utes have been playing with fire for a while. Close wins over Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA - all teams in the bottom half of the conference - demonstrated what kind of squad this really is, with losses to Cal and Oregon (other bad teams!) to really drive the point home. Utah managed just 23 and 28 points against the Bears and Ducks, respectively, despite those opposing defenses ranking 127th and 126th in the country. To put it simply, Utah is a mediocre offensive team.
Colorado, meanwhile, is a very good defensive team, leading the Pac-12 and ranking 14th in the nation. The Buffaloes are better on both sides of the ball than the Utes, playing at home, with a chance to win the Pac-12 championship. There's precedent for an upset here - Colorado beat Utah on the road in the final week of the 2011 season to keep the Utes from a South title - but that was the first year of the expanded conference in a very different Pac-12. CU should win Saturday to advance to the title game.
Heisman Watch
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
This race has gotten really strange. Texas lost to Kansas for the first time in 78 years, but it certainly wasn't because of Foreman, who bulldozed for 250 yards and two scores on a superhuman 51 carries. He's the nation's leading rusher in both yards and yards per game... and oh yeah, he's done it despite playing in just 10 games.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
The precocious Hurts is quietly going to pass for more than 2,000 yards while rushing for more than 1,000, and his completion percentage is significantly better than Lamar Jackson's despite playing in an offense that places far less emphasis on bubble screens and pitch passes. He represents the terrifying potential of an extended Alabama dynasty.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson is probably still going to win the award, but he really shouldn't. I can't recall a Heisman winner who has ever had a game as bad as Jackson did against Houston, when he completed just 20 of 43 passes, was sacked 11 times, fumbled of his own volition in the red zone to kill a scoring drive and took one of the worst safeties in recent memory in a 26-point rout. It wasn't all on him, but how can a guy have a game like that and win the Heisman?
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
27 passing touchdowns, six rushing scores, one interception, one fumble, third in the nation in pasing efficiency, just 12 sacks taken. No, the competition hasn't been as tough, but WMU has beaten two Big Ten teams, and a victory over 9-2 Toledo this Friday would absolutely qualify as a quality win. Send this guy to the ceremony. He deserves it, far more than J.T. Barrett or Baker Mayfield.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
A recent penchant for throwing interceptions aside, Browning has had a marvelous year. He's already set the UW single-season passing TD record with at least two games to play (and with as many as four remaining, he could set the bar so high it might never be topped). Despite the picks the last two weeks, he's still fourth in the country in passing efficiency. 2016 might not be his year, but he's going to be a favorite next season.
Random Thoughts and Observations
I've defended Charlie Strong on multiple occasions, but this past week sealed his fate at Texas, and not without reason. The situation he inherited at Texas wasn't ideal, and obviously there's a ton of pressure to succeed in Austin. Anyone who denies the role race played in the opposition to Strong has his or her head in the sand. It's not as if the man is a fraud; Strong has proven to be a good coach in the past, and will probably do so again in a slightly more comfortable scenario.
But the simple fact of the matter is there's no place at Texas for a head coach who loses to Kansas. This wasn't even one of the few good Jayhawks squads of the last decade. It was one of the worst teams in the country, and the loss 24-21 overtime loss came after UT took a 21-10 lead in the fourth quarter. Kansas hadn't beaten UT since 1938. Strong knows he's gone, and unfortunately, it's his own doing. He just didn't improve the team fast enough.
2016 Stanzi Awards
It was the quietest week of the season for the Stanzis, with just two weekly awards. We had no Double Stanzis for the first time in quite a while, and neither of this week's winners had won previously.
Week 12 Awards
John Urzua, Middle Tennessee
Opponent: Charlotte
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech
Opponent: Notre Dame
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
49 players: tied with 1
There's still time to catch up, but Deshaun Watson's lead is pretty daunting at this point. Rivalry week should produce some real craziness, so we'll see what the picture looks like when the dust clears.
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