Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The Committee gets it right again

National Overview

It's rare to see a weekend with no surprises, but that's exactly what we got this Championship Week. The conference title games were easy enough to pick that I went a perfect eight-for-eight, including the Bedlam Game, and Temple beating Navy was the only true upset in that group. The predictability continued into Sunday, when the Committee chose the exact four teams everyone expected.

Navy should rebound to beat Army in this week's only contest to send the Midshipmen to another 10-win season under Ken Niumatalolo, who continues to quietly build one of the most impressive coaching resumes in the country. It's fair to wonder when Niumatalolo, like his predecessor Paul Johnson, will get the call from a major-conference school.

College Football Playoff

The Committee's job is never easy, but for the third time in three years the humans have proved superior to their computer predecessors. Alabama was the obvious, easy choice for the top seed. Clemson, despite its general struggles this season, deserved the second spot over Ohio State thanks to the tiebreaker of a conference championship. And Washington, 12-1 Pac-12 winner, was a shoo-in with the blowout win over Colorado.

2016's bracket demonstrates once again why the Playoff should forever be constrained to four teams. An eight-team bracket would have included two-loss teams in Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma and either Wisconsin or USC. None of those teams are remotely worthy of playing a championship this season, including Penn State, which lost to Michigan by 39 points.

There has been, and will continue to be, a great deal of debate about Ohio State's inclusion. When conference championships are the most important factor (as they always have been in college football), including a squad that failed to win its own conference will always be hard to swallow. But the uncomfortable truth is, just as in 2014, it's very clear the Buckeyes are one of the four best teams in the country. The loss to Penn State was halfway between a fluke and a miracle, and OSU is unquestionably a better team. The evidence is all over the 2016 season. If the Playoff really is about matching up the four most deserving, worthy teams, Ohio State has to be the choice.

Pac-12 Report

There's not much to say about Washington's dominant victory over Colorado. The Huskies have been on the upswing longer than the Buffaloes and thus had a sizeable talent edge. Colorado probably needed a great game from its offense and a few breaks to beat UW; neither of those things happened. Washington was able to calm down and breathe after a back-and-forth first half, at which point things unraveled for the Buffs.

Give CU a lot of credit for battling back after the Huskies scored a distressingly easy opening drive touchdown; the Buffaloes tied it up by the end of the first quarter and got the ball back with a chance to take the lead (and put some real pressure on favored UW). But both offenses stalled out after the Huskies regained the lead, and the back-to-back picks to start the second half effectively ended the game.

I'm curious as to why Colorado stuck with injured senior quarterback Sefo Liufao for the majority of the game. After Liufao left the game in the first quarter, Steven Montez performed reasonably well, and the freshman had proved throughout the year he was more than capable when filling in for Liufao. But Liufao returned to the game, despite Montez leading the Buffaloes to their only TD, and threw three killer interceptions. I don't know if Mike MacIntyre was just being loyal to his senior, but it was interesting to see the superior passer in Montez on the bench as the lead grew for UW in the second half.

Heisman Watch

My choice is still Texas RB D'onta Foreman, who went for a superhuman 2,000 yards in 11 games this season for a middling offense and a team that was often behind in the second half. As usual, the voters have nominated a slew of undeserving players instead, choosing to leave Foreman out of the finalists entirely. For some reason Oklahoma WR Dede Westbrook, who has zero chance of winning, was invited. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who had a very disappointing year, made the cut, as did Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, who would go down as the worst winner in Heisman history after his atrocious performance in November.

But the oddest choice is easily Michigan linebacker/safety/returner hybrid Jabrill Peppers, who is clearly in New York because voters decided Michigan, as one of the best teams in the nation this year, had to have a Heisman finalist. Peppers is a good player and did a lot of all-around work for the Wolverines, but this has to feel like a sick joke to Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second last season despite setting a new FBS total all-purpose yardage record. Look at Peppers' year and decide for yourself: 47 solo tackles (72 overall), four sacks, one interception, one forced fumble. He also rushed for 167 yards and had 570 yards on kick and punt returns. Once again: is this a joke?

Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield is the last finalist, and he's again my choice to to win from another frustrating group of candidates (Mayfield was also my fallback option among the finalists last year). I think his struggles in OU's two losses early in the year, which eliminated the Sooners from Playoff contention, should have been enough to drop Mayfield from the running, but now that he's in New York he's once again the best option in a pool of undeserving players.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Another good argument for the four teams in the Playoff is that all four have one or zero losses. These are the only Power Five teams with records of that quality. Penn State can whine all it wants about winning "the nation's best conference" (we'll see about that during the bowl season). It doesn't matter. The Nittany Lions only have to look to their 2-2 start, which included losses to 8-4 Pittsburgh and a 39-point shellacking to Michigan, to see why they weren't seriously considered for the Playoff.

As for Michigan, well, the Wolverines are whining even more than Penn State (that's what you get when you hire Jim Harbaugh), but maybe you shouldn't lose two of your last three games and fail to win even a share of a division title. I was suspicious of UM all year, and that upset at Iowa combined with the collapse against Ohio State merely served to confirm this isn't a top-five squad. It's hard to feel bad for a team that completely controls its own destiny and loses twice at the end of the season.

2016 Stanzi Awards

There were two awards in this abbreviated week, and shockingly, both went to previous winners. That means our field of finalists expands to 14, a truly impressive number that demonstrates how fantastic this year has been.

Week 14 Awards

Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
Opponent: Ohio
Performance: Two INT, won by six

Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: Two INT, won by seven

2016 Stanzi Award Winner

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2

49 players: tied with 1

It was always going to be Deshaun Watson. The Clemson passer really outdid himself in the second half of the season, building an insurmountable lead that even late charges from the likes of Baker Mayfield, Troy Williams and Dallas Davis couldn't top. Congratulations, Deshaun!


That's it for the regular season! I'll be back next week with the start of my bowl previews. It's been another weird, wonderful year of college football, and the marvelous insanity of bowl season promises even more riches to come. Thanks for reading.

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