Bowl Preview, Week 1

The bowls are back and I've returned with my usual guide to help viewers through the confusing, maddening mess that is the college football postseason. My disdain for the explosion of bowls in the past decade is no secret, even if I end up watching most of them anyway. Motivation is the x-factor in bowl season; while the regular season remains at least somewhat predictable thanks to players' natural competitiveness, at least a quarter of bowl teams will simply go through the motions. This makes the games exceedingly difficult to predict.

Instead, I offer my annual "Watchability" scale in the breakdown for each matchup, indicating which contests look promising and which should be avoided. All times are Pacific, with this week's post covering all the games through next Friday, December 23.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico (8-4) vs. Texas-San Antonio (6-6)
December 17, 11:00 a.m.

This game kicks off the bowl season once again, and once again it'll be a home game for the Lobos. As far as early bowls go, you could do worse, even if the outcome is fairly easy to predict. UNM was simply a superior team and improved as the year went on, going 6-1 after a 2-3 start, so the only question is whether playing in the program's first-ever bowl game will buoy UTSA far beyond its talent level. I don't see the Roadrunners' average defense handling the nation's best rushing attack with much success. However, the game is still solid viewing, if only for the Lobos' unique triple-stack Pistol offense. Trust me, it's worth seeing.

Watchability: 3. I'm not kidding about the New Mexico offense. It's weird.

Las Vegas Bowl presented by GEICO
Houston (9-3) vs. San Diego State (10-3)
December 17, 12:30 p.m.

Wow. What did we do to earn this gem of a first-Saturday bowl? Houston was the most talented mid-major in the country this year, slapping around Power Five schools in Oklahoma and Louisville to bookend a somewhat disappointing campaign. San Diego State has been on a dominant two-year run in the Mountain West, but doesn't normally play teams with this kind of talent level. The question for the Cougars is motivation. Houston's Super Bowl was the blowout of Louisville, and losing head coach Tom Herman to Texas isn't a good sign, either. SDSU plays a style that could frustrate UH, with a run-heavy, ball-control offense featuring shifty running back Donnel Pumphrey that limits foes' opportunities.

Under normal circumstances, I'd give the edge to the team with a conference title and a head coach. The Aztecs have earned the right to be respected in this game. But the key difference between Houston and similar seemingly-motivation-less teams in the past is senior quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. I don't think he'll let the Cougars get rolled in his final game, which is one of the reasons why this figures to be such a good matchup. It's really tough to make a pick here, but I'll go with a rested Houston squad whose ceiling is higher.

Watchability: 5. These are possibly the two best Group of Five schools in 2016.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Appalachian State (9-3) vs. Toledo (9-3)
December 17, 2: 30 p.m.

Another great matchup on the first day of bowl season? What's going on here? The early bowls are supposed to be hot garbage. These teams are more-or-less inverse versions of each other, with App State boasting the nation's 15th-ranked defense and a relatively average offense while Toledo comes in with a similarly average D but the fourth-best offense in the country. This sets up like a classic battle of strength versus strength. It's so close, the betting line is actually even. I think the contest is a little easier to call. The Rockets' numbers were earned in the MAC, which is significantly stronger than the Sun Belt. Toledo crushed the Mountaineers' co-SBC champ Arkansas State 31-10. Akron was the only common opponent for these two squads, and Toledo won by 31 while App State came away with a seven-point victory. Toledo should win this game.

Watchability: 4. Tune in for Rockets' senior QB Logan Woodside's last game.

AutoNation Cure Bowl
Central Florida (6-6) vs. Arkansas State (7-5)
December 17, 2:30 p.m.

Here's the first real dud. UCF should rightly be lauded for turning a winless 2015 campaign into a .500, postseason-bound season just one year later, but that doesn't mean anyone is obligated to watch the team in a bowl game. This feels like another fairly easy one to pick; as noted above, Arkansas State tied for the conference title in the Sun Belt, but that's not much of an accomplishment. Also note: the 7-5 record. How did the Red Wolves win the SBC, you ask? Well, the 7-1 conference mark was nice, but State went 0-4 in non-league play, including three blowouts AND a home loss to FCS school Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves aren't actually very good. UCF, on the other hand, played some very competitive games in the American, including close losses to Houston and league champ Temple. The Knights are the easy choice.

Watchability: 1. Not much to see here.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss (6-6) vs. Louisiana Lafayette (6-6)
December 17, 6:00 p.m.

That's more like it. This is what I expect from the early, dark days of bowl season: mediocre, disappointing mid-majors in defense-optional slap-fests. Southern Miss was one of the more underwhelming teams in 2016, falling apart after a 4-1 start. Lafayette was a mess for most of the year but notched its two finest achievements in the last two games: an upset of Sun Belt winner Arkansas State and a blowout of rival Louisiana Monroe. USM has an advantage in QB Nick Mullins, which I expect will be the edge that decides the game.

Watchability: 1. Stay away.

Miami Beach Bowl
Central Michigan (6-6) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
December 19, 11:30 a.m.

This is an easy bowl to pick, but it's still worth watching for the swan song of passers Cooper Rush and Dane Evans, two of the best mid-major QB's in the nation over the past four years. Both have amassed more than 11,000 yards through the air and 75 passing touchdowns in their illustrious careers. It'll be fun to see them go head-to-head in their final game, even though Tulsa is the heavy favorite for a reason. The Golden Hurricane have the sixth-best offense in the country and very nearly went 11-1, losing to Houston and Navy by a combined nine points. The Chippewas likely don't have enough firepower to keep up, but with a QB like Rush they'll have a shot.

Watchability: 3. Very good quarterbacking is hard to find in college football. Appreciate this.

Boca Raton Bowl
Memphis (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky (10-3)
December 20, 4:00 p.m.

The Boca Raton Bowl features one of those classic bowl puzzles. WKU was unquestionably the better team this year, finishing with a better offense and defense and winning a conference title. But Memphis is a good team in its own right, and can counter excellent Hilltoppers QB Mike White with a high-quality passer of its own in Riley Ferguson. More to the point, WKU just lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue, while the Tigers don't have to deal with that kind of transition. Given that both offenses are likely to explode, this looks to be a back-and-forth contest. Despite the stats favoring the Hilltoppers, I think Memphis is the smarter pick.

Watchability: 4. There's going to be scoring.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-5)
December 21, 6:00 p.m.

Wyoming was a great underdog to root for this year, but the Cowboys are in over their heads here. After a 7-2 start that included a magical upset of Boise State, Wyoming got shredded by UNLV and New Mexico and (predictably) lost a rematch with San Diego State in the Mountain West title game. BYU played a rough independent schedule and lost four games by a combined eights points, with three of those losses coming against Power Five teams (and the fourth to Boise State). The Cougars are flat-out more talented than the plucky Cowboys and should prove it in this game. The lack of QB Taysom Hill definitely gives me reason to pause, but I'm still taking BYU.

Watchability: 2. Both teams are decent, but there's no real hook here.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Idaho (8-4) vs. Colorado State (7-5)
December 22, 4:00 p.m.

In what could be Idaho's final bowl game before dropping down to the FCS level after the 2017 season, the Vandals get to stay in-state to face a regional foe in CSU. I want to root for Idaho in this game, but the Rams are a smarter pick. Both teams have decent defenses, but CSU's offense is a lot stronger, which figures to put a strain on the talent-strapped Vandals. Idaho's record was also made in the Sun Belt, and it's always a good idea to pick against the nation's weakest conference whenever possible. Colorado State plays in Boise every other year; this won't be much of a home field advantage for the Vandals.

Watchability: 1. Unless you're into the sweet nostalgia of Idaho in the FBS.

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs. Old Dominion (9-3)
December 23, 10:00 a.m.

Who are the lucky teams that drew the Bahamas Bowl this year, you ask? Why, merely a school making its first postseason appearance in 29 years (EMU) and another making its first ever (ODU). What a delightful pairing, and a couple of teams worthy of getting a little island vacation. Eastern was the perennial doormat of the MAC West, but a 5-2 start in 2016 all but guaranteed the Eagles would get to a bowl for the first time since 1987. Old Dominion, meanwhile, joined the FBS in just 2014, so this is a pretty sweet landing spot for a first bowl. The Monarchs are favored for good reason; they went 7-1 in the Conference USA and won their last five, while EMU weathered a lot of injuries to finish with seven wins. ODU is the pick.

Watchability: 2, because of the history involved, but otherwise this game offers little.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs. Navy (9-4)
December 23, 1: 30 p.m.

Both schools enter the bowl on a bit of a down note after otherwise successful seasons. Tech won seven straight after a 1-3 start, but ended the regular season with a big loss to Southern Miss and followed it up with a shootout loss to Western Kentucky (a team the Bulldogs had already beaten) in the Conference USA Championship. Navy fought off tough challenges from Memphis, Tulsa and Houston to win the American's West division, only to get thrashed by Temple in the title game and fall again last week to rival Army. I would have taken the Midshipmen a few weeks ago, but QB injuries make Navy a significantly tougher sell now. LTU is the better pick, given the state of the opposition's quarterbacking.

Watchability: 3. These are still a pair of very impressive offenses.

Dollar General Bowl
Ohio (8-5) vs. Troy (9-3)
December 23, 5:00 p.m.

As far as first-week mid-major bowl clashes go, this one's pretty promising. Ohio and Troy boast the nation's 31st- and 32nd-ranked defenses, so unlike most Group of Five teams, they're actually competent defensively. The advantage comes on the other side of the ball, where the Trojans have a sizeable edge on offense. I like Ohio's run-heavy attack, which very nearly upset Western Michigan in the MAC title game, but Troy has a lot more to offer offensively and is more balanced. The Trojans have also simply been better this season; this team nearly won at Clemson, for goodness' sake. The Sun Belt is a tough league to trust, but Troy deserves to be favored here.

Watchability: 3. We're dealing with mid-majors, but a couple that are actually decent.

That's it for the opening week of bowl season, but Week Two is where things really heat up. There are 20 games next week after this week's opening dozen, and the competition also tends to get a lot better in the more prestigious bowls. See you then.