Bowl Preview, Week 2

After a rough 1-3 start to my predictions, I scraped out a 7-5 finish in the first week thanks to late-game heroics from Louisiana Tech, which struggled tremendously in defending third- and fourth-string Navy quarterbacks, Old Dominion in the Bahamas Bowl, and Troy. The only real shocker of the first week was Idaho turning into an offensive juggernaut against Colorado State, which appeared to be the clearly superior team heading into the game.

Week Two of bowl season is the main event, with a grand total of 20 games across just six days. The quality of the matchups also tends to increase - although mostly at the end of the week - so away we go! As always, all times are Pacific.

Hawai'i Bowl
Hawai'i (6-7) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)
December 24, 5:00 p.m.

Hawai'i got to sneak into its traditional Christmas Eve home bowl game thanks to the bloated postseason system now offering too many games for teams with winning records to fill. This should have been a very easy pick; the Rainbow Warriors are bad, having lost multiple games in blowout fashion to mediocre-or-worse opponents. However, it remains to be seen whether Blue Raiders quarterback Brent Stockstill will play in this game after breaking his collarbone earlier this season. If he's healthy, this is a no-brainer, as Stockstill is an excellent player (27 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in 2016 on 64 percent passing). If he can't go... I'd still take MTSU. The coaches will prepare backup John Urzua, and I'Tavius Mathers is one of the most underrated running backs in the country.

Watchability: 2. Hawai'i isn't very good.

St. Petersburg Bowl
Miami (OH) (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (5-7)
December 26, 8:00 a.m.

Ugh. This is probably the worst game of the bowl season. Where to begin? Miami started 0-6, with an 0-4 mark in non-league play, before winning six games against all the worst teams in the MAC. The RedHawks have one of the worst offenses in the country (although, to be fair, they also have a pretty strong D). MSU, on the other hand, has a good offense and an atrocious defense. The difference is that the Bulldogs' stats were accrued in the SEC, and MSU also lost several close games that could have seen the team's record swing to 7-5 or even 8-4 with a little more luck. Most importantly, the Bulldogs convinced head coach and program-savior Dan Mullen to stick around for the forseeable future, eliminating any chance of a coach-less emotional collapse in the bowl. MSU, big.

Watchability: 1. Please don't get up for this.

Quick Lane Bowl
Maryland (6-6) vs. Boston College (6-6)
December 26, 11:30 a.m.

A couple of conference-abandoning traitors, eh? I think we know how to deal with these turncoats (at least, after having a hearty laugh at their on-field struggles): ignore their garbage bowl game. These programs deserve both each other and the ignominy of playing in Detroit in December. The Terrapins opened 4-0 against a paper-soft early schedule, then promptly got blown out in five of seven Big Ten games, needing a win over lowly Rutgers to sneak into the postseason. BC somehow pieced together six wins from a mediocre ACC slate but, like Maryland, didn't beat anyone. This is a tough one to call. The Eagles have a quality defense but the second-worst offense in the nation; Maryland is mediocre on both sides. In the end, I'll go with a Big Ten squad over one from the awful ACC.

Watchability: 1. These teams don't deserve your time.

Camping World Independence Bowl
North Carolina State (6-6) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
December 26, 2:00 p.m.

Normally I'd be apprehensive about taking an ACC team over an SEC one, but there are few factors that point me toward NC State in this contest. First, the SEC wasn't quite its usual dominant self in 2016, which devalues what Vandy did. Second, the Commodores didn't really beat anyone, needing wins over a QB-less Ole Miss team and a Tennessee squad in full meltdown mode to get to 6-6. Finally, the Wolfpack were simply a better team this year. NCSU had Clemson and FSU dead to rights and bumbled away a win over ECU in Week Two - classic growing pains from a program on the rise. I like what Dave Doeren is doing in Raleigh, and his team should win this game.

Watchability: 2, because NC State might be kind of good next year.

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Army (7-5) vs. North Texas (5-7)
December 27, 9:00 a.m.

Did you know Army finished fourth in the country in total defense? I didn't. I did know it's been six years since the Black Knights made the postseason, which is pretty good motivation. Another good motivator is revenge, which Army has after losing 35-18 at home to North Texas earlier this season. There's a reason the bowl folks avoid pairing teams that have previously played; it's unfair to the team that won in the regular season, particularly when it's a squad like the Mean Green that lost four of five to end the year and really just needed the 2016 campaign to end. As such, Army is a pick to win this rematch, as UNT's 118th-ranked offense figures to struggle against the Black Knights' elite D.

Watchability: 1. I'm happy for Army having such a great season, but I don't need to watch them.

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
Temple (10-3) vs. Wake Forest (6-6)
December 27, 12:30 p.m.

This is easiest pick to make thus far, as Wake Forest is vastly outmanned against a very good Temple team. Yes, the Owls are replacing head coach Matt Rhule (although his replacement, Florida defensive coordinator Geoff Collins, is an inspired hire for a program built on defense), but that pales in comparison to the baggage the Demon Deacons are dragging in their, well, wake. The "Wakeyleaks" scandal, in which radio broadcaster (and former Deacons player and coach!) Tommy Elrod appears to have leaked game plans and plays to opponents over a two-year period in retaliation for not being retained by the new coaching staff, is a new nadir for college football pettiness (and that's saying something). Wake Forest's 125th-ranked offense, say hello to Temple's third-ranked D. This could be ugly.

Watchability: 1. Temple deserved a better opponent.

National Funding Holiday Bowl
Minnesota (8-4) vs. Washington State (8-4)
December 27, 4:00 p.m.

This got bizarre really fast. Washington State was already a favorite for a reason: the Cougars' offense, led by QB Luke Falk, is flat-out scary. The Wazzu D leaves something to be desired, but against a mediocre passing offense like Minnesota's, that didn't figure to be a huge issue. The Golden Gophers have backed away from a team-wide ultimatum demanding 10 players suspended under suspicion of sexual assault be reinstated immediately or the the team would boycott the game; but yikes. This is a strange, ugly situation, and I don't see how it doesn't hang over the team in the contest. WSU should have won under normal circumstances, and now it's hard to imagine Minnesota putting up much of a fight.

Watchability: 3 for the morbid curiosity factor.

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Boise State (10-2) vs. Baylor (6-6)
December 27, 7:15 p.m.

Yikes. The Broncos are once again very good, missing out on a Mountain West title only by virtue of losing the wrong two games. Baylor went 6-0 against another cupcake schedule, then got exposed, beaten up and humiliated to finish .500 on the year. The Bears are ending another campaign with a backup at the QB position. Boise State is talented and good on both sides of the ball, while Baylor predictably has another tissue-paper defense. This won't be much of a contest.

Watchability: 2, unless you're (understandably) into seeing Baylor get beaten into submission.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Northwestern (6-6)
December 28, 11:00 a.m.

This feels like another easy call. Northwestern got a nice upset of Iowa, but that was months ago, and other than that the Wildcats' best claim to fame is a couple of competitive losses to Big Ten royalty. Pitt improved a ton over the course of the year, sneakily turning into one of the better teams in the country, and really turned it on in November. The Panthers won their last three, including handing Clemson its only loss, and averaged an absurd 58 points during that span. I don't see Pitt slowing down in the final game for program stalwarts Nathan Peterman (QB) and James Conner (RB).

Watchability: 3. That feels generous, but the Panthers' offense has been rolling lately.

Russell Athletic Bowl
West Virginia (10-2) vs. Miami (FL) (8-4)
December 28, 2:30 p.m.

I have a feeling this game will serve as a great litmus test for the Big 12. Was WVU all that good, or did the conference's weak defenses buoy an otherwise merely above-average squad? The Hurricanes have a quality defense, and the offense, led by sometimes-great QB Brad Kaaya, is also pretty good. Now, the Mountaineers are more balanced than they've been in recent years offensively, and the defense is also a cut above the sieves WVU usually fields. Still, I agree with the betting line in favoring Miami. The 'Canes suffered three of their four losses by a combined 11 points and throttled Pittsburgh 51-28, the last loss for the Panthers in 2016. I can't trust another big-offense Big 12 team here.

Watchability: 3. These are both nominally good teams, but there's not too much to get excited about.

Foster Farms Bowl
Indiana (6-6) vs. Utah (8-4)
December 28, 5:30 p.m.

Hmmm. Utah is the better team, but I'm hesitant to pick a team that lost three of its last four and is so shaky at the QB position. Troy Williams can be wildly erratic, and the normally stout Utes D fell outside the top 50 nationally this year. The Hoosiers are actually better on that side of the ball. Of course, Indiana has dealt with similar issues in the passing game, as Richard Lagow has given it away nearly as many times as he's scored this year (18 TD's to 16 picks). Utah can be a hard team to trust, but look at Indiana's wins. The Hoosiers haven't beaten a team with more than four wins in 2016. Utah finished poorly, but lost to Oregon and Washington on fluky plays that can be chalked up to bad luck. The Utes should win.

Watchability: 2, but only for Utah RB Joe Williams, whose return from retirement mid-season was one of the best storylines in college football this year.

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
December 28, 6:00 p.m.

Both schools were beautifully true to their roots in 2016, with the Wildcats once again fielding a defensive, run-first, fundamentally sound team and the Aggies finishing as yet another free-wheeling, offensively explosive, defensively deficient squad. K-State was once again the tortoise, starting slow but going 5-1 down the stretch; A&M again played the hare, starting 6-0 but ending the year in the same place as the Wildcats. So which team triumphs in this showdown of marvelously different styles? I have to go with A&M, playing what is essentially a home game, against a defense ill-equipped to defend its myriad weapons. KSU has to win one way: getting out in front early and playing the keep-away game. If the Wildcats get behind, they're toast.

Watchability: 3. It's a decent matchup, but neither QB brings much to the table.

Birmingham Bowl
South Florida (10-2) vs. South Carolina (6-6)
December 29, 11:00 a.m.

Whoa. South Carolina made a bowl? Thank goodness for that November game against Western Carolina (eyeroll). True, the Gamecocks play in the SEC, but remember, they also play in the far inferior East division, and they only managed to go 3-3 against that competition. This isn't the usual case of a talented SEC team just getting by against powerful foes, then breaking out against an inferior opponent in the postseason. USF is really good offensively, ranking fifth in the nation in rushing, and while Carolina's defense isn't bad, rush D isn't its specialty. The Bulls will control this contest on the ground and win.

Watchability: 2. USF's Quinton Flowers is a talented dual-threat signal-caller.

Belk Bowl
Arkansas (7-5) vs. Virginia Tech (9-4)
December 29, 2:30 p.m.

This is an interesting one. Austin Allen (Arkansas) and Jerod Evans (Tech) have both put up numbers for teams that were a little up and down in 2016. The Razorbacks scored major victories against Ole Miss and Florida, but got rocked by Auburn and LSU. The Hokies hammered North Carolina and knocked off Pitt, but lost to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. So which versions of these teams show up in Charlotte? Va Tech is the favorite, and that seems right, given the big losses Arkansas suffered. And yet... I keep thinking to myself, "The ACC is so bad... and the SEC West is so good..." Why not? I'll call for the Razorbacks' offense to run wild again and give the SEC another irritating result to crow about.

Watchability: 4. These are quality offenses that deserve some love.

Valero Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Colorado (10-3)
December 29, 6:00 p.m.

This hurts. I've written glowingly of Colorado this year, and the numbers seem to indicate the Buffaloes are the better team. CU has a quality offense (if not an elite one like OSU) and a killer D, including a lockdown pass defense that seemingly matches up perfectly with Okie State's Air Raid principles. The Cowboys' defense is also terrible, which seems to favor the Buffs. However, I have this nagging feeling that CU might have played above its talent level this season, and that the Pac-12 championship was perhaps more indicative of how good this team really is. Colorado absolutely could win this game, but Mason Rudolph is a very good QB, and if Sefo Liufao plays like he did against Washington this thing will be over early.

Watchability: 4, though it gets bumped up to a 5 if CU plays to its maximum potential.

Autozone Liberty Bowl
Georgia (7-5) vs. TCU (6-6)
December 30, 9:00 a.m.

Considering the quality of these programs, this is a pretty mediocre game. Big things were predicted from both squads before the season and nothing really worked out as planned. Georgia's season essentially ended with a 1-4 stretch in the middle of the year, while TCU got upset early by Arkansas and was never able to compete with the better teams on its schedule. The Bulldogs have the only quality win, a November upset of Auburn, but even that comes with the rather large caveat that the Tigers were banged up and played far below their ability. I guess I like UGA here, even though the Horned Frogs' Kenny Hill is the better QB in this contest. Look for Georgia to get a shot in the arm from the announcement that junior RB's Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will both return in 2017.

Watchability: 2, and only because Chubb and Michel are both great.

Hyundai Sun Bowl
Stanford (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
December 30, 11:00 a.m.

So let's see: Stanford fell to 4-3 at midseason and was the second-worst offense in college football, but we're to believe the Cardinal suddenly found their way during the five-game winning streak to end the season against Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Cal and Rice? What's that? The average national rank of those defenses is 113th? And only OSU's was inside the top 100? And now RB Christian McCaffrey isn't playing? Sorry, not buying it, Stanford. North Carolina's D isn't great, but it's better than any of those five. For the record, in the one game during that stretch against a marginally competent defense (the Beavers), the Cardinal struggled. Moreover, this isn't a typical great Stanford defense, and even the Cardinal's strength (rush defense) doesn't match up well against the Tar Heels, who have a top-25 passing attack. Mitch Trubisky is a pretty good QB, and I like UNC.

Watchability: 2. I wouldn't wish viewing Stanford's offense on anyone.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nebraska (9-3) vs. Tennessee (8-4)
December 30, 12:30 p.m.

Not exactly one of the classic Big Ten - SEC bowl showdowns of yore. Nebraska was undefeated and highly ranked into late October, until the Cornhuskers were predictably undressed by the good teams on their schedule. With the division title still on the line in the final week, Nebraska lost 40-10 to Iowa. Yeesh. Tennessee, meanwhile, was one of the more disappointing teams in the country, finishing 8-4 after a 5-0 start. The Volunteers couldn't even win the sloppy SEC East. Both Tommy Armstrong, Jr. (Nebraska) and Josh Dobbs (UT) are wildly erratic passers, so there'll probably be some exciting moments, but who wins? It's basically a push, but the loss of leading Huskers receiver Jordan Westerkamp this week in practice puts the Vols over the top.

Watchability: 3, but it's a really tepid 3.

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
South Alabama (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
December 30, 2: 30 p.m.

What on earth is this? I'm 99 percent sure this bowl was created to give Arizona a potential home bowl (in which case, whoops: the Wildcats went 3-9), and the fact that it's being played at the end of the second week is a travesty. South Alabama went .500, with two wins over FCS teams and a 2-6 record in the freaking Sun Belt. In the old, sensible world of college football, the Jaguars would have never sniffed the postseason. Air Force lost three competitive Mountain West games, but beat Navy and Boise State and finished with five straight victories. There's no intrigue here. The Falcons should win easily.

Watchability: 1. This game shouldn't even exist.

Capital One Orange Bowl
Michigan (10-2) vs. Florida State (9-3)
December 30, 5:00 p.m.

Michigan should absolutely win this game. The Wolverines are uber-talented and field the nation's second-best defense, and it's clear FSU is in a bit of a down year. UM was literally one or two plays away from going 12-0 and making the Playoff. The Seminoles struggled a lot defensively and went through some growing pains on offense, as the 0-2 start to ACC play demonstrated. Yet I feel as if FSU has a decent shot in this game. Sure, Michigan's defense is great, but the Harbauffense has been nothing but a slopfest all year. How embarrassing is it that FSU's true freshman QB Deondre Francois is already a significantly better player than Wolverines upperclassman Wilton Speight? To make matters worse, there's Dalvin Cook to contend with - you know, one of the three best backs in the country.

If Florida State can foul up the plodding UM attack early and prevent the Wolverines from getting out to an early lead (thus stopping Harbaugh from playing keep-away with the defense and ground game all night), the 'Noles have to like their chances. Yes, Michigan has been a lockdown pass defense this season, but against the likes of the Big Ten, that's not particularly amazing. Francois is heady far beyond his years, and if a lead allows him to go to work off of play-action stuff to Cook, watch out. Finger-pointing could start in the Michigan secondary. Now, the more likely scenario is that UM makes FSU one-dimensional offensively, runs the ball around 50 times, and slows the pace to a crawl while squeezing the life out of the talented but young Seminoles. But we'll see. I'll take... FSU?

Watchability: 5. It's not the best matchup of the bowl season, but it's very good.