I went 18-14 through the first two weeks, eking out a couple of upsets with Florida State's win over Michigan and Oklahoma State's blowout of Colorado. Now on to the big ones. I wrote most of this preview last week, so while I am a little late posting the picks are still legit.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
LSU (7-4) vs. Louisville (9-3)
December 31, 8:00 a.m.
I agree with the line. LSU should be favored. That might come as a shock to fans who have seen Louisville all over the Sportscenter Top 10, but it's worth remembering that the Cardinals are still only in their third year as a major-conference team (no, the old Big East doesn't count) and are just now seeing their personnel finally look like a Power Five roster. LSU, on the other hand, has been at this a while. The Tigers are unquestionably more talented, even without running back Leonard Fournette. I already don't like how that adds up for Louisville...
...And that's without even taking into consideration how the two teams ended the regular season. The Cards started 9-1 against a tremendously soft ACC slate, then got blown out by Houston and lost a sloppy contest to a bad SEC team in Kentucky. The Tigers? After a rough (2-2) start that saw the program finally cut ties with head coach Les Miles, the team went 5-2, improved significantly on offense, and lost a pair of close games Alabama and Florida, who played in the conference title game. I expect Lamar Jackson to run around and make some plays in this game, but I also expect him to make some mistakes, as is common with Heisman winners. LSU wins.
Watchability: 5. It's always a 5 when Jackson is involved.
Taxslayer Bowl
Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Kentucky (7-5)
December 31, 8:00 a.m.
I'm not sure what to make of this game, other than indignation that it's being played in the third week of bowl season. Georgia Tech and Kentucky both have middling-to-bad offenses and defenses, with Kentucky boasting a marginally better offense and Tech fielding a slightly stronger D. There are no real stars here, although the Wildcats did put two backs (Stanley Williams and Benny Snell, Jr.) over the 1,000-yard mark, which is impressive. The Yellow Jackets have the better resume, featuring wins over Virginia Tech and rival Georgia (Kentucky's only quality win was against rival Louisville). What does it all add up to? More importantly, should anyone care? Probably not, but I'll take Tech.
Watchability: 1. How anyone could watch this game with LSU - Louisville also on is beyond me.
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Washington (12-1) vs. Alabama (13-0)
December 31, 12:00 p.m.
First off, no. Washington does not have zero chance of winning this game. The Huskies are very good, deserve to be here, and can beat mighty Bama if a lot goes their way. The first thing has to be getting QB Jake Browning right; in UW's last four games, he was flat-out bad in at least nine of 16 quarters. Anything less than excellence from the normally very efficient sophomore passer will spell quick doom here. Next, the Huskies can't blink early. This program has come a long way very fast, and these players are simply not used to playing on this stage in the same way the Crimson Tide are. Washington has to stay the course in the first half, meaning not getting too emotional and flaming out, not panicking if Alabama scores first, and not taking itself out of the game with mental errors.
Finally, the Huskies need some luck. It is a fact that Alabama is a more talented team. Forcing an early turnover and getting out in front could be a lifesaver. If UW allows the Tide to sit back in its base defense and dictate terms, the Dawgs will gradually get worn down by the superior talent of their opponent. Chris Petersen is an outstanding strategist, and I don't think he'll be surprised by anything the Lane Kiffin-devised Alabama offense throws at him. Unfortunately, his efforts are more than likely to be futile in the face of the, well, Tide of history. Bama is just too powerful offensively to contain for long, and the Huskies' big weapon against defenses that try to stack the box - WR John Ross - plays right into Nick Saban's greatest strength: pass defense. Alabama should win by double digits.
Watchability: 5. Come on. Bama is going for 15-0.
Playstation Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State (11-1) vs. Clemson (12-1)
December 31, 4:00 p.m.
Regular readers will probably be able to predict who I like in this one. I haven't tried very hard to hide my feelings over the course of the season. To start, though, I offer this caveat: Clemson, at its best, is the better team. When the Tigers get going offensively, they're great fun, and the defense is a lot better than people think. Both teams have been inconsistent in 2016, so there's no reason at all to think good Clemson can't show up to win this game. But there's a difference between the squads, even as it applies to their consistency, and I think that's the best indicator as to who will win.
The Buckeyes opened hot, blowing out Oklahoma in Norman and moving to 6-0 before a flukey blocked field goal cost them the Penn State contest. After a sluggish, hangover win over Northwestern, though, OSU won back-to-back games 62-3 before getting into tight battles in rivalry games with the Michigan schools. In the end, despite some offensive struggles, the Buckeyes emerged as the Big Ten's best team. That's a kind of inconsistency Clemson would have killed for. The Tigers could have lost to Auburn, Troy and Louisville in the first month alone; they went on to need a shanked gimme field goal to beat North Carolina State and some awful officiating to top FSU. On top of that, Deshaun Watson regressed badly as a passer in 2016. This feels like an easy call. Ohio State should win.
Watchability: 5. It is a semifinal, after all.
Outback Bowl
Florida (8-4) vs. Iowa (8-4)
January 2, 10:00 a.m.
Boy, it sure seems silly to have all these extra bowls after New Year's, doesn't it? Especially now that the Playoff games are held a day or two before? Gahhh. Why do I bother? The greed of the bowl system will never be slaked. This is actually a potentially great game, with a couple of defenses that should annihilate the garbage offenses they're facing in what will probably be the lowest-scoring contest of the postseason. It's a tribute to the Gators' defense that they won eight games and the SEC East (bad though it may have been) without fielding a remotely competent offense. Likewise to the Hawkeyes, although it should be noted that both teams gave up a lot of points in the games they actually lost. Normally I'd advise viewers to stay away from toothless offensive slogs like this, but I have a feeling it will end up being pretty entertaining watching these teams butt heads for three-plus hours to no avail. Florida, in a very close, low-scoring affair, is the pick.
Watchability: 4, with the contest potentially setting college football back 40 years.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Western Michigan (13-0) vs. Wisconsin (10-3)
January 2, 10:00 a.m.
I'm sorry, Western Michigan. I want to pick the Broncos. They've been so fun. But reality is about to hit WMU in the face. Wisconsin won 10 games against a very demanding schedule, and each of the Badgers' losses came by one score. The saving grace against a powerful, physically superior team is that Western won't have to worry too much about the passing game. Wisconsin's QB's are both awful. But this squad is excellent on the ground and on defense, featuring a top-10 unit far beyond anything the Broncos have seen this season. WMU has a shot if it gets out to a lead early and makes Wisconsin play catch-up, but any other scenario leads to the Badgers bludgeoning the Broncos with the power run, bleeding clock so that QB Zach Terrell can't find the marvelous Corey Davis on the outside until the game is out of reach.
Watchability: 4, dropping a notch because of the possibility of a blowout.
Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
USC (9-3) vs. Penn State (11-2)
January 2, 2:00 p.m.
I hate picking USC. The Trojans always underachieve with the smallest of expectations, then look great when people stop paying attention. Maybe this is finally the time when the team shows up for a game that means something. Penn State, somewhat like USC, looked overmatched early in the season, but really turned into something by the ed of the year. In fact, these might be the two hottest teams in the country outside of Alabama. I do like SC in this contest, even though the Pac-12 took a downturn in 2016.
For all the talk about how the Big Ten became the nation's best conference this year, I remain skeptical. Let's see how the vaunted Nittany Lions passing attack fares against Adoree' Jackson and the Trojans' secondary. Trace McSorley is a lot more of a chucker than the media seems to want to admit; a 57 percent completion percentage might get it done against run-oriented Big Ten pass defenses, but the Pac-12 asks a little more. It makes complete sense for USC to shut up Penn State's Playoff whining, finish off a fantastic run to end the year, get a ton of preseason love in 2017, and promptly underwhelm us all again. It's the L.A. way.
Watchability: 5. Whoever wins will start next year with massive media hype.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Auburn (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)
January 2, 5:30 p.m.
Gaaah. Everyone knows what's going to happen in this game. Oklahoma, the superior team for two-thirds of the year, with the nation's third-best offense, will get spooked early, turn the ball over, and fail to come all the way back against the churning Auburn run game. Tigers' QB Sean White's health is a factor? Who cares! The Sooners just do this, year in and year out. Auburn shouldn't even be in this game with that 8-4 record, but I have no doubt the Tigers will justify their good ol' boy selection in the local bowl by knocking off an OU squad that, playing in the Big 12, appropriately plays exactly zero defense. How insane is it that the Sooners went 9-0 in league play with the nation's 89th-best defense? That's unreal! It also goes a long way toward explaining that 1-2 non-conference record against, you know, good teams. Yikes. For seemingly the millionth time this decade, Oklahoma SHOULD win this game. I'll take Auburn.
Watchability: 5, even if watching the nonexistent Auburn passing game makes me scream.
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