24-16 through the 40 bowl games isn't horrible, but my record was certainly marred by a few bizarrely off calls, including Baylor manhandling Boise State, Washington State's Holiday Bowl flop and Houston seemingly lacking motivation against San Diego State. No matter. The National Championship - excuse me, the College Football Playoff National Championship Game presented by AT&T - is here, and there's plenty to discuss. First, though, a couple tidbits about the previous bowls.
The bowl system has never been a perfect indicator of regular-season quality; I included a large disclaimer to that effect in the first of my postseason posts. No one can predict which teams will lose a head coach days before the game, have an off-field scandal, or simply fail to show up. Still, the bowls offer a referendum on the season that preceded it, particularly in confirming or refuting the narrative surrounding the alleged strength or weakness of the Power Five conferences. On that note: wow.
It would appear the Big Ten's newly bestowed status of "Nation's Best Conference" was, erm, a bit inaccurate. The league finished its bowl schedule 3-7, easily the worst of the power conferences, with a win over Western Michigan as the only (relative) feather in its cap. Yikes. Five of the top six teams in the Big Ten lost, including the top three, with the capper Ohio State's 31-0 blanking at the hands of Clemson. So no, the Big Ten did not surpass the SEC in 2016.
The ACC, meanwhile, is rightly proud of its 8-3 record heading into Monday's title game, but let's pump the brakes a little on the celebrating. These results don't mean the league has suddenly become a juggernaut just because it has traditionally been humiliated in the postseason. Look closer at the wins: Boston College, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech all beat nobodies, and the three losses (from Pitt, UNC and Louisville) were all ugly in one way or another. Credit Florida State for that nice game against Michigan and Clemson for that shellacking of Ohio State (notice the conference at whose expense those victories came, by the way?), but this isn't some all-time performance by the ACC.
So that leaves us with just one game in the third year of the Playoff system (which, it feels somewhat unnecessary to note, has been an unqualified success). The "Plus-One" model, even now under fire for not including three- or four-loss teams in an eight-team format, needs no defending. I have no doubt the greed that rules collegiate athletics will one day push the field to eight or even 16 teams, so for now, let's relish the most perfect playoff the sport is ever likely to see.
CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T
Clemson (13-1) vs. Alabama (14-0)
January 9, 5:00 p.m.
We're back, and so are the squads from last year's very exciting title game. This is a strange contest to predict, much more so than it appeared it would be throughout the course of the season. Alabama seemingly has everything going for it: a new, more dynamic presence at quarterback in the form of Jalen Hurts; another terrifying defense, now outfitted with experience against Clemson's offense; a new round of elite young talent at the skill positions AND a brilliant O-line, and 14 games' worth of finding a way to win (and usually dominate) against a strong schedule.
The Crimson Tide opened the year with a monstrous thrashing of a USC team that, while not cohesive at the time, matured into one of the nation's best by the end of the year. After falling into a huge hole (again) at Ole Miss thanks to some impressive work by the SEC's best passer (Chad Kelly), Bama came back for a quality win, then defeated four consecutive ranked opponents (Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU). The Tide won all four of those games by double digits, and only the LSU game (a 10-0 defensive battle) was closer than 19 points.
Alabama closed the year out with blowouts of two more ranked foes (Auburn, Florida), then handily defeated a game but outclassed Washington team in the semifinal. Through 14 contests, the Tide have defeated nine ranked opponents. That's remarkable, and tops even LSU's stunning run in 2011, when the Tigers went 13-0 with eight wins over ranked teams - before losing to Bama in the BCS title game. Make no mistake, if Alabama wins this game, it will go down as the greatest team in college football history.
Why then, am I so concerned about the pick? Clemson's pedigree in 2016 certainly doesn't measure up. The Tigers almost lost at Auburn in the opener, well before their hosts had made a mid-season transformation into a quality team (yet still one that Bama would defeat with ease in November). A wake-up call? Not so, given that Clemson nearly lost to Troy one week later. After a 4-0 start, the Tigers faced off against new media darling Louisville, and appeared posed at halftime to record a huge statement win with a 28-10 lead. Instead, their inconsistent play almost did them in, as four second-half turnovers actually put the team behind before a late goal-line stop saved the day.
It appeared Clemson had finally figured things out, but just two games later the Tigers won at North Carolina State in overtime only because the Wolfpack shanked a short field goal as time expired. After a bye, the team should have been ready for rival Florida State, but ending up winning a tight game largely because of a pair of atrocious phantom penalties. Clemson's luck finally ran out against Pitt, but the Tigers still seemed like a shoo-in for the playoff with an ACC Championship - another contest the team nearly threw away, this time thanks to an inability to stop Virginia Tech's offense.
No player personified his team more in 2016 than Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who entered the year as the Heisman front-runner and ended up as essentially a legacy finalist (the voters embarrassingly saw him finish second) after regressing in almost every category as a passer. Watson's completion percentage, yards per attempt and QB rating all went down in 2016, while his interceptions increased. He rushed for half as many yards as he did in 2015 and displayed some truly strange decision-making, as seen by his three multi-turnover performances in close wins (and another in the loss to Pitt) to win my annual Stanzi award.
To recap: Clemson won just four games against ranked teams to Alabama's nine; unlike the remarkably steady Crimson Tide, the Tigers were wildly inconsistent all year despite holding a massive talent edge over the majority of their competition; Clemson finished with one loss to Bama's zero, and all of this came with the Tigers playing an inferior schedule. This should be an easy call, right? Alabama is going for history as the first team to ever finish 15-0 and could cement its place in the annals of college football with back-to-back championships (and five in eight years). Clemson should stand no chance.
Yet I find myself torn. Clemson, at its peak, was always the biggest threat to Alabama this season. I mentioned as much in my preview of the Fiesta Bowl last week, even as I picked Ohio State to beat the schizophrenic Tigers. Clemson hadn't had a performance like that all year, and it's suddenly made this contest seem much tighter than expected. Can the Tigers' defense put together another brilliant effort and confound Bama's offense, now abruptly under the direction of Steve Sarkisian and not the mercurial, departed Lane Kiffin? I'm sure Nick Saban had his reasons, but it's obviously highly unusual for a team to change play-callers just before playing for a national championship.
Perhaps it's foolish to expect a squad that hasn't strung together two quality performances against good teams all year (or even played two consecutive games against quality opponents) to suddenly do it now. Alabama is the better team on both lines - the most important aspect of the game - features a punishing ground game, and has the best defense in the country. There's no way the Tide would struggle to stop Watson for a second time... right?
But Watson has Mike Williams at receiver in this game, a luxury he didn't in last year's championship, and the Tigers may be peaking at just the right time. That shutout of the Buckeyes was an eye-opener. If Clemson can slow down the Tide's rushing attack and force Hurts to make more than a small handful of plays, the Tigers have an excellent shot at making Bama play from behind. That's about all a team can ask for against the collection of athletes the Crimson Tide have assembled.
In the end, the pick doesn't change. Alabama has been too good, for too long, to not trust to finish this thing off. Tide defensive tackle Jonathan Allen is the nation's best defensive player, and the efforts of his front line should go a long way toward slowing down the Tiger running game, so integral to all the ball fakes and play-action Clemson runs. With its superiority on the offensive line, Bama should run the ball effectively, shortening the game and keeping its offense on the field for long stretches. That's the outcome that makes sense. But Clemson's performance last week is enough to throw some real doubt into the equation. Did the Tigers wake up just in time? It's going to be fascinating to see how both teams adjust after last season's contest, and should be another competitive game worthy of the National Championship.
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