Pac-12 Preview
The Pac-12 is now unquestionably the nation’s second-deepest
conference behind the SEC. That’s great timing for the Conference of Champions,
which hopes to send at least one team to the inaugural College Football Playoff.
Oregon and Stanford have become the standard-bearers for the West Coast, but
traditional powers USC, UCLA and Washington can take this thing to a whole new
level with a couple more years of quality play. The most helpful thing would be for
someone to unseat the Ducks/Cardinal at the top of the mountain. It looks
better when the same teams aren’t always winning. Still, I’m sure the Pac-12
would happily take a national championship from anyone at this point. It’s been
a decade since USC’s now-vacated Orange Bowl romp over Oklahoma that secured
the 2004 BCS title. This league needs some more hardware.
In customary fashion, I’ve mapped out the season for every
team in the conference. After a distressing amount of research, I selected
clear wins and losses in every team’s schedule to determine a floor and ceiling
for the season.* The rest are left as “swing games,” which I define as any
contest in which the outcome isn’t reasonably easy to predict. There are quite
a lot of them this year. That tends to happen with a league this deep. Predicting
the swing games is tough, but once it’s done you have an overall prediction for
how the season will play out for every team. My results this year surprised me.
I’ll reveal them at the end of this post, but first I’d like to give a detailed
rundown on each squad.
*For the record, in
2013 every team in the conference finished within the range of wins I
predicted.
North Division
California
Floor: 1-11
Ceiling: 4-8
Swing games: at Northwestern, Colorado, at Washington State
The Bears look to avoid a second straight year in the North
cellar and consecutive winless seasons in conference play. I know times have
been tough in Berkeley, but winless? Really? Even Colorado has more Pac-12 wins
the past two years. There’s no excuse for Cal to be this bad. Sadly, the
schedule will probably doom this team again. It won’t help at all to play BYU
and Northwestern out-of-conference, and three of the four cross-divisional
games (USC, UCLA and Arizona) are likely losses. Add in the fact that the Bears
will be underdogs in all five of their North contests and a grim picture starts to
develop.
It’s not as if there’s no talent on this team. Quarterback
Jared Goff was promising during his freshman campaign and he has some nice
receivers in Chris Harper and Bryce Treggs. Brennan Scarlett is a strong
pass-rusher from the end spot and safeties Avery Sebastian (lost in last season’s
opener) and Stefan McClure are good enough to make a difference in this
spread-happy league. But overall Cal is thin at so many positions and lacks
impact players at others. It seems likely the Bears will spend 2014 in much the
same position they did last year – looking up at the rest of the standings.
Oregon
Floor: 7-5
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: Michigan State, at UCLA, Washington, Stanford,
at Oregon State
Perhaps THIS is the year Oregon finally A) has all the
pieces and B) avoids falling on its face late in the season. Some analysts are
predicting a fall back to the pack, saying the Ducks’ run is over. I can’t
share that view of this team. UO’s problems are ones most teams would love to
have. An unproven receiving core? Oregon has actually recruited a handful of
four-star WR’s the past few years. At some point one of them has to pan out.
That terrible 2013 defense? It was actually better than the previous one in
both points and yards allowed per game.
The real question is health. Can QB Marcus Mariota, who
should go down as the best in school history, avoid injury? Can the talented
O-line (already missing tackle Tyler Johnstone) still be one of the best in the
country? Can the defense, particularly the secondary, keep its starters fresh
down the stretch? There’s more than enough here to win a Pac-12 title and earn
a playoff berth. The Ducks just have to prove they can finish a season.
Oregon State
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: at USC, Utah, at Stanford, Washington State,
Arizona State, at Washington, Oregon
The Beavers have a wide swing range. They could miss a bowl
and it wouldn’t shock me at all. After all, this team is replacing a Biletnikoff
winner in Brandin Cooks, a WR who OSU leaned on so heavily it was kind of
humorous at times. The offensive line is still a major question mark and, oh
yeah, OSU can’t run the ball at all. The defense is decidedly average, which
bodes ill in this high-flying conference. When playing teams with superior
athleticism, the Beavs tend to look overwhelmed.
And yet… I could also see this squad winning a lot of these
games. QB Sean Mannion, despite his flaws, is a good player, and Mike Riley
signal-callers often improve dramatically as upperclassmen. The dean of Pac-12
coaches does more with less than just about anyone in the country and has seen
much worse defenses than this. Maybe the Beavers got a little lucky to get to nine
wins in 2012, but I don’t think they're as bad as their six-game losing streak last
season looks. OSU misses UCLA and plays four November home games.
Stanford
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: USC, at Washington, at Notre Dame, at Arizona
State, Oregon State, at Oregon, at UCLA
I’m done doubting Stanford. I’ve learned that lesson the
hard way. However, even as the Cardinal have upset Oregon two years in a row
and won the North (and conference), they’ve never looked particularly good
doing it. Quick question: who had the better defense last season, Stanford or
Oregon? Stanford, by far, right? Well, the Cardinal gave up 19.0 points per
game in 2014. UO allowed 20.5. That’s hardly a vast difference. Stats like this
speak to just how efficient Stanford has been the past few years. Did you know
the Cardinal won the Pac-12 last year outgaining opponents by an average of 42
yards per game? 42! That’s less than one drive!
Now, all this seems to be pointing to a “beware underestimating
the Cardinal” warning. I’m not. Stanford will be very good again, but there are
some significant losses this time that actually will cause this team to drop
off slightly. Losing four of five starters on the O-line hurts, regardless of how
many blue-chip recruits this program has signed. LB’s Trent Murphy and Shane
Skov, DE’s Ben Gardner and Henry Anderson and S Ed Reynolds were all some of the
best to ever play here and will be missed as well. Despite a roster rich with
talent, I have to think this is the year Stanford regresses a little.
Washington
Floor: 6-6
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: Stanford, at Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, at
Arizona, Oregon State
UW graded out very highly in my season predictions, as you’ll
soon see. Unfortunately, that still didn’t include a breakthrough to the top
two of the division. The good news for now, though: the Huskies return seven
starters on each side to a team that won nine games; QB Cyler Miles may
eventually end up as an upgrade to the departed Keith Price; new head man Chris
Petersen is absolutely an upgrade over Steve Sarkisian, and the O-line could be
the best in the conference. The schedule also includes a 13th game/gimme win over Hawai’i.
Now, the bad news: UW plays in a very competitive
division. I still think Oregon and Stanford are better and the Huskies also get
UCLA from the South. Petersen is unquestionably the more proven coach, but
there’s always a little wonkiness as a team switches staffs. Ultimately, having
roughly a repeat of 2013’s 9-3 campaign – with a little extra Hawai’i flavor thrown
in – should be viewed as a success. Petersen is going to make this team great,
though.
Washington State
Floor: 3-9
Ceiling: 8-4
Swing games: at Utah, Cal, Arizona, USC, at Oregon State
The Cougars are in a difficult position. They’ve clearly
improved, as seen by their strong showings last year against Auburn, USC and
Arizona and subsequent bowl bid, the program’s first in 13 years. However, even
more so than rival Washington, WSU is feeling the pressure to perform in a
division that is continuously improving. Wazzu could be as good or better this
year – QB Connor Halliday and virtually all the receivers return from a passing
attack that put up nearly 5,000 yards, while the D should be somewhat improved –
but might not win as many games.
There are simply too many better teams in this conference to
expect great things out of the Cougs. WSU is the clear number five team in its
division and plays Arizona, Arizona State, USC and Utah from the South. There’s
not a guaranteed win anywhere in there. While it would be surprising to see this
squad drop them all, I don’t like the odds of returning to the postseason. The
Cougs defied my predictions last year by getting to six wins. I hope they can do so again.
South Division
Arizona
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling: 11-1
Swing games: USC, at Washington State, at UCLA, Washington,
at Utah, Arizona State
Arizona has been getting some buzz of late as a sleeper in
the South. Even though the Wildcats will miss RB Ka’Deem Carey, I understand
the hype. Four starting offensive linemen return along with a talented
receiving corps. The defense won’t be incredible but should be able to get the
job done for the most part. ‘Zona also played the L.A. teams very tough last
year, losing to USC by a touchdown and UCLA by five.
This squad knows how get up for good opponents.
I don’t foresee a division title. Too much would have to go
right and the Wildcats do draw Oregon and Washington from the North (they also
travel to Wazzu in a scary trap game the week before facing UCLA). But head
coach Rich Rodriguez has proved the doubters wrong with back-to-back eight-win
seasons. It’s completely within reason to expect he can do so again. Arizona
falls into the “not quite a contender, but dangerous” category.
Arizona State
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: UCLA, at, USC, Stanford, at Washington, Notre
Dame, at Oregon State, at Arizona
I had thought ASU, defending South Division champions, would
be in for another solid year in 2014. After all, the Sun Devils (still one of
the best mascots in the country) return perhaps the conference’s second-best QB
in Taylor Kelly (more on that later), leading WR Jaelen Strong and dual-purpose
RB D.J. Foster. ASU struggled against Stanford in two games last year –nothing to
be ashamed of – and blew pretty much everyone else out of the water.
Then I looked closer. This team has to replace nine
defensive starters, six of whom earned some kind of all-conference honor. That
list is headed by two-time Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Will Sutton, who
was a monster at DT. Now nearly all those guys must be replaced. I find it
difficult to believe the Sun Devils can pull it off. Additionally, the skill
position losses are worse than it seems at first glance. Foster is terrific,
but there’s a reason the departed Marion Grice started at RB over him, and
aside from Strong ASU has lost of lot of receiving experience. Another 10-win
season seems unlikely.
Colorado
Floor: 2-10
Ceiling: 5-7
Swing games: Colorado State (Denver), at Cal, Utah
One day. I believe one day Colorado will not be the worst
team in the South. It has to happen one day, given the history, resources,
location and pride of this program. But it is not this day. The Buffaloes made
great strides last season, upping their win total from one to four and
increasing their scoring average by more than a TD per game. The next step is
to make it back to a bowl, but that’s still too much to ask from this team in
the second year of the Mike MacIntyre era. Even by going 3-0 in nonleague play
and beating the Pac-12 bottom-feeders, the Buffs would still need to pull off a major
upset to get to six wins.
Still, there are positive signs. Sefo Liufau took over at QB
midway through the season and showed off some potential. The loss of WR Paul
Richardson hurts, but Nelson Spruce is a capable big-play guy in his own right.
Three starters return to both the D-line and secondary, though the defense’s
best player is probably LB Addison Gillam. There isn’t enough to seriously
challenge for a postseason berth, but this team is on the way up.
UCLA
Floor: 6-6
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: at Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona, at
Washington, USC, Stanford
I’ve held my tongue on UCLA to this point, but it’s time to
be honest: I’m not buying it. I feel so, so many similarities between the hype
this team is getting and the way people talked up USC in the 2012 preseason.
All we heard that summer was how talented the Trojans were and how USC would
win the national championship. The Trojans started the season ranked first.
They ended it 7-6 and unranked. Now, UCLA will not lose six games. This team is
talented enough to avoid that kind of meltdown and is coached by Jim Mora
instead of Lane Kiffin. However, there are a lot of parallels that do work,
starting with the QB’s. Brett Hundley has not yet proved he is the elite passer
the media is claiming. The RB situation is less than impressive. The WR’s are
decent, but certainly less talented than USC’s.
Defensively, yes, the secondary is fantastic. The front
seven is overrated. For as great as the Bruins supposedly were in 2013, they
gave up nearly 400 yards a game. Now they have to replace LB’s Anthony Barr and
Jordan Zumwalt and they’re going to be better, elite possibly? Myles Jack is an
amazing LB/RB/possible demigod, but he’s just one guy. I don’t think UCLA can
beat Oregon twice – which they will need to do to win the conference – and make
the playoff. Competing for the Pac-12 title is the highest this team can rise.
USC
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: at Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, at
Arizona, at Washington State, at UCLA, Notre Dame
I was stunned when I finished my swing game predictions and
had USC winning 10 games. With all the hype UCLA has gotten, it’s been easy to
forget about the Bruins. For some reason I think the Trojans have noticed this.
Despite losing a couple of talented defensive starters in LB Devon Kennard and S
Dion Bailey, USC has a chance to be really, really good. If the team can stay
healthier, it’s even possible it can top last season’s record. And this team
won 10 games last year!
I expect WR Nelson Agholor and RB Javorius Allen to go off,
helping the offense improve while the defense slips a little. Despite the five
league road games, the schedule is favorable at times: after playing in Pullman
on November 1, the Trojans don’t leave L.A. again. The biggest question I have
is whether new head coach Steve Sarkisian can make this team better in any way.
He didn’t really prove he could in Seattle. Time will tell if he’s better
suited for the Hollywood scene.
Utah
Floor: 1-11
Ceiling: 7-5
Swing games: Fresno State, at Michigan, Washington State, at
Oregon State, Arizona, at Colorado
Utah is in a peculiar position entering 2014. The Utes have
been as average as a team can possibly be since joining the Pac-12 three
seasons ago (18-19 overall). There’s been NFL talent in Salt Lake City, just
not quite enough of it. The Utes have also struggled with injuries, especially
at QB. Yet when it comes down to it, the bottom line is that Utah hasn’t been
able to measure up to the competition in a major conference. The grass isn’t
always greener.
The Utes have talented – if erratic – QB Travis Wilson back
and an elite WR in Dres Anderson. The O-line, as usual, is pretty good. The
same is true for the defensive front. There aren’t any true “panic” spots on
this team. It just doesn’t feel as if Utah is ready to make some great leap.
Playing non-conference games against Fresno State and Michigan doesn’t help,
nor does the fact that the Pac-12 slate again features Oregon and
Stanford. It seems almost a certainty that this squad will struggle to reach a bowl.
The results of my preseason prediction exercise are below.
Some of the swing contests were extremely difficult to figure out and it’s
important to remember that teams are rarely as great or terrible as they
appear. It’s more likely the bottom of the conference will feature three- and
four-win teams than one- or two-win teams. It’s simply too hard to predict
where those bad teams will pull that one upset. Still, here are my predictions
for the 2014 Pac-12 standings.
North
Oregon: 12-0 overall, 9-0 Pac-12
Stanford: 8-4, 6-3
Washington: 10-3, 6-3
Oregon State: 7-5, 4-5
Washington State: 5-7, 2-7
California: 2-10, 1-8
South
UCLA: 11-1, 8-1
USC: 10-2, 7-2
Arizona: 8-4, 5-4
Arizona State: 6-6, 4-5
Utah: 3-9, 2-7
Colorado: 3-9, 0-9
Pac-12 Championship game: Oregon over UCLA
The season starts in less than 24 hours.
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