Wednesday, September 3, 2014

The Big Ten's last hurrah


National Overview

It was an up-and-down return for college football in Week 1 of the 2014 season. On the one hand, unranked schools such as Oklahoma State and West Virginia proved to be much more than simple tune-ups for the likes of Florida State and Alabama, respectively. Those midday games ended up providing unexpected jolts of excitement. However, that excitement was necessary given that there were only three ranked-vs.-ranked matchups, two of which turned into runaway victories. It was good to have football back, but there have certainly been better opening weekends.

The headline from Saturday was the struggles of FSU and ‘Bama, both heavy favorites, in their neutral-site contests. Seeing the Seminoles have to work to put away the Cowboys, winners of ten games a year ago, wasn’t too shocking. OSU has become a very good team, if one expected to fall off a little this season. West Virginia is a different story. The Mountaineers have been a mess since joining the Big 12 in 2012 and won just four games in 2013. Alabama should have had no trouble putting WVU away. It’s hard to say what was more alarming – the play of new Crimson Tide quarterback Blake Sims, or the inability of the Tide defense to consistently stop the Mountaineers.

Rather than dwell on the negatives, though, let’s look at the most impressive performances. There was no team more impressive in Week 1 than Texas A&M, which went to South Carolina on opening day and completely annihilated the Gamecocks. New QB Kenny Hill was sensational, smashing the school records for passing yards and completions in a single game and nearly making Aggies fans forget Johnny Manziel in the first game without him. A&M was supposed to be an afterthought in the SEC West race. Now things look even more wide open. South Carolina, on the other hand, was supposed to be a prime contender in the East, which now looks like Georgia’s to lose.

Speaking of the Bulldogs, UGA pulled away from Clemson very nicely in the second half. Running back Todd Gurley announced himself as the way-too-early Heisman frontrunner, plowing over, around and through the Tigers’ D en route to four touchdowns. I’m somewhat skeptical of Clemson’s bona fides as a legitimate quality team (the offense lost quite a lot), but it was a feel-good win for a team that deserved one. QB Hutson Mason was a question mark going into the year, but he was more than good enough Saturday.

The most disappointing performance of Week 1 undoubtedly belonged to Wisconsin, which held a 24-7 third-quarter lead over LSU in Houston only to let the Tigers score the final 21 points. RB Melvin Gordon was apparently injured* and only carried the ball four times in the second half, while the switch to mobile QB Tanner McEvoy was an unmitigated disaster (more on this later). LSU had no business winning the game by simply running the ball over and over. The Big Ten desperately needs Michigan State to win at Oregon this week.

*In other injury news, Baylor QB Bryce Petty cracked two vertebrae in the Bears’ 45-0 shutout of SMU on Sunday. This is hugely significant for the Big 12 race and the playoff picture. Baylor could be in trouble if Petty misses any time. UPDATE: Nope, looks like Petty will be back next week. Which is about the dumbest, most irresponsible thing Baylor could do, but why not? It’s not as if Petty could get paralyzed or anything.

There are two huge games this weekend, both in Pac-12 country. First, USC gets its first shot at a “we’re back” announcement at Stanford. Yes, the Trojans did upset the Cardinal last season, but that’s what it was – an upset. SC was down in the standings all year after losing to Washington State in the 2013 conference opener and has a chance to rectify that this year with a big win. For Stanford, it’s a chance to re-confirm its status as a dominant Pac-12 power.

Looming even larger, though, is Michigan State’s visit to Oregon. The Spartans’ imposing defense will face its greatest challenge in head coach Mark Dantonio’s tenure on the road against the Ducks’ blazingly fast attack. It’s not an understatement to say this could be the most important game of the college football season. An Oregon win would effectively end the Big Ten’s playoff chances, as Wisconsin has already lost and Ohio State is playing without QB Braxton Miller. If MSU wins, UO can still make the playoff by running the table (and the Pac-12 has numerous other contenders). As big as this matchup is for the Ducks, it means so much more to the Spartans.

Top 25

I don’t believe in releasing a top 25 before the end of September, but here are a few thoughts about who looked good and who didn’t in Week 1: South Carolina and Clemson should both be unranked after losing by double-digits, regardless of the competition... Texas A&M looked like a top-10 team, although it may be that South Carolina simply isn’t that good... Alabama did not look like a top-five team... the winner of Oregon – Michigan State should be ranked first until another team makes a more compelling case... UCLA doesn't deserve to be in top 15.

Pac-12 Report

Let’s start with Thursday. Utah and Arizona State wiped out overmatched FCS teams. No sense in rehashing that. Washington State, facing Rutgers in Seattle, did not. Coming off their first bowl appearance in a decade, it was fair to question how the Cougars would respond to increased expectations. Unfortunately, the results weren’t good. WSU is still somewhat talent-deficient, but losing to the Scarlet Knights in a shootout to start the third year of the Mike Leach era was highly disappointing. It’s tough to look at the Cougs’ remaining schedule and pick out six wins.

Colorado was likewise disappointing in the Rocky Mountain Showdown against rival Colorado State. Yes, the Rams were unveiling Alabama transfer Dee Hart at RB and aren’t terrible overall, but the Buffaloes let a 17-7 third-quarter lead turn into a 31-17 defeat. That’s unacceptable. Arizona did manage to pick up the slack for the Buffs Friday night, blowing out UNLV thanks to an electric debut performance by QB Anu Solomon. ‘Zona looked like a sleeper in the South.

The weekend saw highs and lows for the Pac-12. Oregon and Stanford crushed lower-level opponents, while Cal got a very big revenge win at Northwestern and USC looked dominant against Fresno State. Oregon State eventually picked up a double-digit win versus Portland State, but it took a while for the Beavers to assert themselves (side note: is there any team in the country that struggles more against mobile QB’s than OSU? I say no. I mentioned this after last season's opening loss to FCS power Eastern Washington and it seems more true than ever today).

Washington didn’t get the Chris Petersen era off the greatest start, holding on for a 17-16 win at Hawai’i. The Huskies’ offense was terrible, particularly in the second half, when the Rainbow Warriors shut them out. However, it’s hard to know just how big a problem this is, especially with QB Cyler Miles suspended for the opener. Miles should make a significant difference, although UW had still better be ready against Eastern Washington this week.

It was UCLA that made the conference look the worst, though. On the road for an early kick-off at Virginia, the Bruins pulled out a 28-20 victory in which the defense scored three TD’s – all in a second-quarter flurry – while the offense accomplished nothing. QB Brett Hundley looked awful and the Cavaliers, winners of all of two games in 2013, looked to be at least the Bruins’ equal. There’s some talk that UVA has a good defense, which is somewhat true, but a cop-out. Oregon went into Charlottesville last season and hammered this squad 59-10. The fact that UCLA couldn’t do anything remotely similar is a huge red flag.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Wisconsin's curious decision to stay with McEvoy at QB during the second half against LSU, when the Tigers had clearly realized he couldn’t throw at all, was second-guessed the past few days. Now the bad news has come out: McEvoy didn’t win the job solely because he beat out incumbent Joel Stave. Stave has actually been dealing with some kind of mysterious shoulder issue and can’t go right now. This is a rough situation for the Badgers. Any defense worth anything is going to force McEvoy to prove himself through the air, something he didn’t look remotely capable of against the Tigers.

I think USC might be getting too much credit for running a ton of plays (105!) on a bad Fresno State defense. Even during their 11-win season last year the Bulldogs gave up more than 30 points a game, including the Vegas Bowl loss to this same USC team, when they allowed 45. The Trojans are talented, but I’m not sure they should be favored at Stanford. The Cardinal are still really good and have earned respect they don’t seem to be getting this week.

Louisville was impressive in its first game as an ACC member, downing Miami (FL) comfortably on Labor Day. I marked the Cardinals as an also-ran in the Atlantic, but through the first week of play UL appears to be a stronger pick to challenge Florida State than Clemson. Perhaps the step up in competition won’t be as severe as people thought.

After buying (somewhat) into the Ole Miss hype, I was stunned at the horrendous game the Rebels played with Boise State in Atlanta on Thursday. The 35-13 final score was in no way indicative of the flow of the contest, which saw seven interceptions and several other wounded ducks in one of the worst collective QB performances of the past decade. Ole Miss might have a lot of talent but right now the Rebs are not true SEC contenders.

Speaking of sloppy play, Ohio coaches had to be tearing their hair out during the team’s Week 1 win over Kent State. The Bobcats led 14-7 at the break in a tight MAC battle, then fumbled on four consecutive drives to start the second half. Amazingly, the Golden Flashes didn’t capitalize until the final turnover, tying the game at 14. Ohio then promptly marched down the field for the winning field goal. Go figure. Of course, if we’re talking sloppy play, then we’re talking about just one thing…

2014 Stanzi Awards

We’re back, baby! The nation’s QB’s will once again be fighting tooth and claw to secure the coveted Stanzi Award, given to the man behind center who makes the most boneheaded plays in victory throughout a single season. Can anyone dethrone Michigan’s Devin Gardner, who ran away with the award last year? Tune in and find out!

As a reminder, here are the guidelines players must follow to be eligible:

1) Only QB’s are eligible
2) The QB must have multiple turnovers
3) The game must be close (defined as within two possessions)
4) The QB’s team must win the game

Here are the first winners of weekly Stanzis in 2014:

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State
Opponent: Abilene Christian
Performance: Two INT, led team back from nine-point deficit (bonus points for picking up a Stanzi against an FCS school)

Dane Evans, Tulsa
Opponent: Tulane
Performance: Two INT, led team back to force overtime (won in double-OT)

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
Opponent: UCF
Performance: Two INT, led game-winning field goal drive with 1:13 left

Davis Webb, Texas Tech
Opponent: Central Arkansas
Performance: Two INT, never put FCS team away (normally not a Stanzi, but qualifies considering the competition)

Jameis Winston, Florida State
Opponent: Oklahoma State
Performance: Two INT, nearly lost to unranked opponent


I think that does it for the first week. We’re off and running! Check back in next week pending the results of USC – Stanford and MSU – Oregon, when everything – or nothing – may have changed.

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