Let the rivalry games begin

National Overview

It’ll be a short post this week. With the holidays and impending school work, I don’t have very much time right now. Soon I’ll be able to devote more time to the blog, but for now I hope you accept my meager offering. Fortunately, nothing happened last week, so there’s not a lot to write about anyway.

To recap: Boise State was the only contender to play and waxed Fresno State. Nebraska went down, though I didn’t get that game, so I can’t comment on the alleged blown calls that have the Husker faithful so fired up. USC was curiously hammered by Oregon State a week after the Beavers lost to Washington State, and Ohio State somehow managed to remain in the Big 10 title hunt.

Top 25

One quirk in my rankings is the omission of North Carolina State. NCSU beat Florida State and both teams have the same record. However, the Seminoles are in my top 25 over the Wolfpack. Why? Because they’re a better team. FSU was driving and would have scored on their last possession in that game when they fumbled. The result of that contest by itself doesn’t mean that the Seminoles aren’t the superior team. Florida State has played a tougher schedule, and I’ve seen enough of both teams to say that FSU is stronger. In this case, I’m breaking my own rule about head-to-head results.

1) Oregon

Didn’t play, but neither did Auburn or TCU. Boise still hasn’t done enough to pass the BCS favorites, so the Ducks are number one.

2) Auburn

Pretty much the same as Oregon. They don’t deserve to move up or down. Let’s move on.

3) Boise State

51-0 is pretty impressive, even though Fresno State hasn’t risen above “good” since 2005. Of course, the game (at least, the WAC game) the Broncos have been waiting all year for comes this week. Nevada is solid, but they were bludgeoned last year in Boise. Can the Wolf Pack get revenge this season? I doubt it.

4) TCU

A second loss by Utah would have been a virtual death knell on TCU’s title hopes. Luckily for the Horned Frogs, the Utes survived, so the Mountain West champs still have a shot, albeit a small one, at going to Glendale.

5) Stanford

A week after giving Oregon all they could handle, Cal got devastated by the Cardinal. It’s probably a good thing for the Ducks that they got Stanford earlier in the year, because this team is on the warpath right now. I’ll say it again: if an 11-1 Stanford squad is denied a BCS bid, it’ll be absolutely outrageous.

6) Wisconsin

Although Michigan isn’t good, Wisconsin is the best team in the Big 10 right now. My only problem is with the conference tiebreaking system. The Badgers would probably beat Michigan State if the teams played again, but sorry – they don’t get that chance. Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to win the Big 10 title due to their BCS ranking when they lost to MSU on the field.

7) Ohio State

Like I said, these guys aren’t dead yet. People across the country rolled their eyes in disbelief as the Buckeyes pulled out another miraculous win to stay alive, but it’s never a good idea to count OSU out. They don’t have a very good chance at winning the Big10 title, but they’re now in good shape to make a BCS game.

8) Oklahoma State

After their continued offensive dominance, I feel compelled to give Oklahoma State a little more love. They still have to beat Oklahoma this week to convince me. However, this is starting to feel like a magical season for the Cowboys, and it would no longer shock me if they won the Big 12 South.

9) LSU

Another lucky win, and no, there’s no praise for Les Miles this week. Ole Miss is not a good team. Period. A top-15 team – let alone a top-5 team – shouldn’t have any trouble with a 4-7 squad. To put it bluntly, anyone who sincerely thinks LSU passes the eye test as a great team is a fool or a homer.

10) Alabama

I moved Alabama up, but I’m not rewarding them for their shameful scheduling of first-year program Georgia State in the 11^th game. Really, that’s just disgusting. Instead, I’ve moved the Crimson Tide up because I fully expect them to give Auburn everything the Tigers can handle – if not beat them outright – on Friday.

11) Arkansas

Arkansas is in limbo as the odd good team out in the SEC West. I feel bad for the Razorbacks. This could have been their year if the division was down; instead, it’s as good as it’s ever been. However, to their credit, this team seems to have swallowed their disappointment and is still competing.

12) Michigan State

Somehow the Spartans still only have one loss. Can you imagine what would have happened this year if the Big 10’s quirky scheduling had caused MSU to miss Iowa as well as Ohio State? Yikes. We may have had the least deserving conference champion of all time.

13) Virginia Tech

I had to laugh when I saw the Miami (FL)-Tech game. It was the same old story for the Hokies – let the Hurricanes think they have a chance, then pound them into submission. Tech is headed to the ACC title game (again), and it appears that they’re going to actually win the conference after that disastrous start.

14) Missouri

Everything I’ve ever heard about Ames, Iowa suggests that it’s a very difficult place to play, so I won’t penalize the Tigers for their close win over the Austen Arnaud-less Cyclones. But this week kind of drove home my point that while Mizzou is good, they’re not great.

15) Arizona

Good time for a bye week for the ‘Cats. They got to move up in the rankings and they’ll need the extra prep time to beat the Ducks. I’m not sure why everyone is writing this game off so early – Arizona is ABSOLUTELY capable of beating the Ducks.

16) Nebraska

Once again, the Cornhuskers failed to prove that they can move the ball without Taylor Martinez. As I’ve said several times, this team is flawed. Texas A&M has improved a lot, but they’re not better than Nebraska. A 9-6 final is embarrassing.

17) Nevada

Well, here you are, Nevada. You wanted the attention and the national respect. Now go out and earn it against Boise State. It’ll be interesting to see what changes the Wolf Pack have made since last year’s debacle.

18) Oklahoma

At least there’s still one thing the Sooners can do with consistency: put Baylor in their place. Oklahoma jumped out to a big lead early on the Bears and never let up. The Bedlam game is starting to look like a very good matchup indeed.

19) South Carolina

No, South Carolina, beating Troy doesn’t impress anybody. But which is the more important contest to this team: the de facto state championship game with Clemson or the SEC championship with Auburn? Never underestimate the intensity of those Southern rivalries. If the Gamecocks come out and take came of business, we’ll know they’re ready for another shot at the Tigers.

20) USC

This is largely a symbolic ranking, because if Matt Barkley is out for a while I have zero confidence in the perpetually-overrated Mitch Mustain. But the Trojans are better than they played against Oregon State, and should bounce back considering their final opponents.

21) Iowa

Man, when is Iowa finally going to win one of those games with Ohio State? Seems like the same story every year, and every year the Hawkeyes come up a little bit short. Enjoy a lower-tier bowl, guys.

22) Florida State

FSU is the best team in the Atlantic, but unless they get some help they won’t play Virginia Tech for the ACC title. That’s what happens when you turn the ball over in key situations of big games. It’s unfortunate, because Jimbo Fisher has done a nice job in his inaugural coaching season.

23) Utah

Utah jumps back into my rankings after a wild win over San Diego State, though no one is fooled by this team any more. The Utes are now praying that TCU gets to a BCS bowl, lest they get relegated to a completely irrelevant bowl.

24) Texas A&M

I’m prepared to rank the Aggies after the second-half improvements they’ve made this season. Benching Jerrod Johnson was a gutsy move, but it paid off and improved the team in the long run. Are we witnessing the return of A&M?

25) Northern Illinois

Time to celebrate! A mid-major that I ranked didn’t promptly lose the next week! The Huskies’ chances at going undefeated in MAC play look favorable, thanks to their next opponent (Eastern Michigan) owning a 2-9 record this year.

Pac-10 thoughts

Oregon State, what is wrong with you? You guys are killing the Pac-10. You lose to the bad teams and beat all the good ones. The result is that the national media sees a team with a mediocre record and assumes they’re not very good, when in fact no one in the conference wants to play them. Can you imagine what it would look like if the Beavers put a whole season together some time? They could go undefeated! I’m not exaggerating here.

Oregon-Arizona this week figures to be a solid matchup. We’ll be lucky to get a game half as entertaining as last year’s double-OT barnburner, but these are two good teams with a pretty nasty recent history. The last two seasons UO and ‘Zona have combined to score 99 and 86, respectively. The Wildcats don’t fear Autzen, as they were one of the last Pac-10 teams to beat the Ducks at home.

The weather could have a big impact on this game. The forecast right now looks to be about 40 and raining. People assume the Arizona players will be at a disadvantage in these kind of conditions, although I’m not sure that’s true – no one wants to play in that kind of weather.

It was good to see Jake Locker win his final home game for Washington, even if you believe he was overhyped during his time behind center. The homegrown hero who twice slayed USC, he managed to dazzle us with his potential without ever really blowing us away with his production. You have to feel for Locker, who couldn’t live up to otherworldly expectations on a bad team he was expected to carry. It would be a great story if he got to go out in style in a bowl.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Oh man. Did you see this run against Cal? Are you kidding me? There have been niftier, faster, and more explosive plays by Heisman candidates this season. But none have had the sheer force of will behind them that Luck’s run did. He tore apart the rival Bears with his arm and feet. That’s why he’s number one.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Based purely on on-field performance, he’s the winner. But there’s enough doubt in my mind about his eligibility – not to mention his past transgressions – that I just don’t feel good about making him my winner. If this mess is cleared up before the ceremony, then I’ll reconsider.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Moore’s right there with Newton and Luck, but he hasn’t had a “Heisman moment” yet. And no, week one against Virginia Tech doesn’t count. Fortunately, he’ll get a chance this week versus Nevada.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

Now a bit of a longshot, in my opinion. James didn’t dominate in either of the Ducks’ last two games, so he needs a big performance against Arizona. Of course, it would help if the whole Oregon offense played a little better, too.

There should be plenty to write about this weekend as the rivalry games begin, so I hope to be able to write more in my next post. Enjoy the delicious food and spate of games.