Showdown Saturday

National Overview

The end of the regular season in college football can rarely be topped by other sports, and it looks as if this year is going to end with as much excitement as usual. There aren’t as many contests this week, but there are a lot of high quality ones. The conference championship games – despite their pathetically transparent goal of revenue generation – are usually at least watchable and at times turn into classics. And we get two more next year in the Big 10 and Pac-12.

Last week was somewhat devoid of real drama, with the obvious exception of Boise State’s dream getting booted away on two horrible missed field goals. The BCS Bowl representatives will be thrilled at not having to invite another mid-major, though the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (if the Broncos end up there) is so beneath BSU that they might as well not even accept the invite.

Auburn’s comeback against Alabama was certainly impressive, though the Crimson Tide did a pretty good job of hurting themselves as well. Auburn, like Oregon, has played several games this season in which it doesn’t seem possible they actually won. Saturday was another example, as the Tigers rallied from yet another huge deficit to stay undefeated. It’s because of wins like this that I’ve had to really put some deep thought into my top 25 this week.

I wasn’t particularly surprised that Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State – regardless of their record, the Cowboys did seem a little bit like a paper tiger. Oklahoma has just always had that kind of power over their rival, and even though they’ve had an up-and-down season I think the Sooners are the better team.

It was kind of nice to see LSU go down, because all the talk about them being a BCS team was infuriating. I can’t stand when an overrated powerhouse team gets things handed to them (a la Ohio State in 2007 and 2008) and it will be good for the SEC to have a different team in the Sugar Bowl, if that is in fact where Arkansas lands.

Top 25

I really wanted to reevaluate all the teams before I made my rankings this week. Now that we’re just a week away from the end of the season, it makes sense to go back and take the whole year into account. How did a team start? How did they finish? How did they play on the road, or against conference opponents? Good questions all. I tried to consider them in making this list.

1) Oregon

The schedule hasn’t been as tough as Auburn’s. But only half of the SEC teams the Tigers played were actually good. The Ducks have also been more dominant, more consistently. That’s why they’re number one – by a hair – right now.

2) Auburn

If all we looked at was W’s and L’s (like the BCS), Auburn would be number one. However, the defensive issues the Tigers have had are much worse than any Oregon has faced. It’s a tight race, but I can’t put them first.

3) TCU

The Horned Frogs got a lot of good fortune this week; not only did Boise go down, but they’ve finished their schedule earlier than the other top teams. All they need is one upset, and we’ll be looking at a national title game that could shame the BCS into destruction.

4) Stanford

Thank God. If the BCS rankings hold – and they should – Stanford will be guaranteed a BCS slot. It doesn’t matter if the Cardinal travel poorly. There is exactly one other team in the country that can argue for the number four spot, and they’re next.

5) Wisconsin

The Badgers have been even more dominant than Stanford, but their weak non-conference schedule and loss to an inferior team drop them below the Cardinal. Not to worry, though, because Bucky is virtually guaranteed to get that Rose Bowl bid.

6) Ohio State

Ohio State hasn’t really beaten a single good team this year. Iowa is their best win, and the Hawkeyes have fallen apart. That being said, there’s not a whole lot of squads that could take the Buckeyes in a one-game scenario.

7) Arkansas

I thought before I might have been too kind to the Razorbacks; as it turned out, I was being too harsh. Arkansas’ resilience paid off this past week, when they knocked off rival LSU and probably snatched themselves a BCS berth. I’ve criticized the SEC at times for not deserving the attention it gets, but this team has earned everything.

8) Boise State

The Broncos only fall to number eight? Yep, sorry. Boise is still an elite team, and it took a second-half collapse and a pair of flukey shanks off the foot of Kyle Brotzman to send them to their first loss. And yes, BSU is a better team than Nevada. That’s not even up for debate.

9) Michigan State

A semi-close win over so-so Penn State confirms what we already knew: MSU is a nice story and a good team, but they would probably get embarrassed by the rest of the teams in the top 10.

10) Virginia Tech

What a remarkable turnaround. I don’t know if there’s ever been anything in NCAA history like the Hokies 0-2-to-10-2 surge. Left for dead after losses to Boise and James Madison, Tech roared back to sweep the ACC and is now a win away from the Orange Bowl. A tip of the hat seems in order.

11) Oklahoma

I got a little disenchanted with the way Oklahoma was playing back when the Sooners lost by two touchdowns in College Station. As it turned out, that loss wasn’t too bad. And a 10-win season, with another Big 12 title in the cards, is nothing to sneer at.

12) Nebraska

The Cornhuskers looked unstoppable for a while this season, but even with Taylor Martinez they’ve proved that they have some issues. When he’s hurt, things get ugly fast. I think they’ll get brought down to earth by Oklahoma this week.

13) Oklahoma State

Oh, the poor Cowboys. They were so close. To lose to Oklahoma again, and in agonizing fashion, epitomizes the nature of those schools’ rivalry. By all rights it should have been OSU’s year, but once again they’re looking up at the Sooners.

14) Nevada

Well, well, well. Look who just joined the big boy’s table. They needed a couple of breaks and then some to get past Boise, but the Wolf Pack really broke through by (likely) winning the WAC. It’s exciting to think of what the future holds for this school.

15) Missouri

The Tigers do have an impressive upset of Oklahoma to their name, but aside from last week’s beatdown of Kansas they haven’t been very good for the last month or so. The good news: with Nebraska leaving, Missouri will be the clear king of the North next season. The bad news: with Nebraska (and Colorado) leaving, there’s no more North division to be won.

16) South Carolina

The Gamecocks are the underdog for a reason against Auburn, but they’ve certainly got a chance to knock off the Tigers. They would have done so in the teams’ first meeting if they hadn’t turned the ball over so many times. We’ll have to see what Steve Spurrier can come up with this week.

17) LSU

I shouldn’t be so happy that LSU lost. It’s not exactly objective as a commentator. But it’s just got to put smile on your face when an incompetent moron and his bumbling, lucky team get what they deserve. LSU could still beat a lot of squads with the pure talent on their roster, but they’re not a good team by any definition of that word.

18) Alabama

Ooh. That had to sting. I mean, you guys had the Iron Bowl wrapped up! 24-0? Are you kidding me? Yeeesh. I’ve been saying all year that ‘Bama just hasn’t looked right, and Saturday’s collapse confirmed that.

19) Florida State

No surprises in last week’s streak-snapping blowout of Florida. After a couple of bad losses the Seminoles have turned it up the past few weeks. Can they upset Virginia Tech like they did in 2005? I tend to doubt it, but that’s the same thing I said back then.

20) Texas A&M

Winners of their last six, the Aggies have closed this season stronger than they’ve done in years. With the Big 12 about to get smaller, can A&M start to contend again? It’d be fun to see this program have a bit of a revival.

21) Utah

Utah is a top 25 team, but I don’t really know how good they are. After getting exposed by Notre Dame and TCU, the Utes barely beat San Diego State and BYU. The end of the year hasn’t exactly gone the way this team had hoped.

22) Northern Illinois

The Huskies are locked in a tight game with Miami (OH) in the MAC championship game as I write this, so they could get knocked out with a loss. But to this point NIU’s 10-2 record is worthy of a top-25 ranking.

23) Arizona

Even after four straight losses, I still have to rank the Wildcats because they could beat several teams on this list. I said about a month ago that Arizona had a rough schedule ahead, and they just got victimized by it. Stanford, USC, Oregon and Arizona State is a pretty hard slate.

24) West Virginia

What’s this? A Big East team in the top 25? Well, this team has done enough to get in with an 8-3 record and a possible conference title (if UConn loses). The league has been bad this year, but the Mountaineers represent its best.

25) Mississippi State

MSU’s not much of a top 25 team, but as I’ve said many times this year, there aren’t a whole lot of worthy squads out there. This season has seen some lean pickings for my rankings. To their credit, the Bulldogs are 8-4.

Pac-10 Thoughts

Well, here we are. Although the Pac-10’s bowl prospects have been dampened by middling play and brutal non-conference scheduling, Oregon can give the conference its ultimate prize by beating Oregon State this weekend and sending Stanford to a BCS game. The Pac-10 hasn’t had two BCS bids since 2002, when Washington State went to the Rose Bowl as the conference champion (sounds crazy, eh?) and USC went to the Orange Bowl. The extra revenue and exposure would be huge for the league.

In other news, ASU’s upset of Arizona somehow didn’t earn them a bowl waiver from the NCAA, so the Pac-10’s last hope for eligible bowl teams lies with OSU and Washington. It would be great for the Huskies to get back to the postseason after so many years of woe, and I think they’ll be able to pull it off this week in the Apple Cup.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

If there was still any doubt, Luck’s game against Oregon State last week confirmed that he’s the best player in the game. It would take a monster game by another player this week to take it away from him.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

This is largely a symbolic ranking, because Newton has been good enough to win the Heisman on the field but has absolutely fallen short off of it. There’s no argument against that.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

Even with his outstanding stats this season, James hasn’t been at his best for a while. He hasn’t been dominant since the USC game, and he’s fallen back far enough that he should be a finalist only.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The NCAA’s decision on Cam Newton not only makes no sense when compared to the Reggie Bush case, it sets a horrible precedent. Commentators have noted how dangerous it is to allow the “plausible deniability” defense, and I completely agree. Why didn’t that so-called “defense” work for Bush, who never admitted any wrongdoing? The progression of logic in this case is absurd:

1) NCAA concludes Newton’s father Cecil did in fact shop his son around for money with a shady agent character.

2) Under NCAA rules, any family member who solicits gifts in exchange for a player’s services renders that player ineligible due to the NCAA’s amateurism standards.

3) NCAA says it cannot conclude that Cam Newton knew about his father’s actions, so he is not ineligible. What?

Even if the younger Newton had no inkling about his father’s actions – which is laughable considering how widely it’s been reported that their relationship is “very close” (Cam even let Cecil choose his college for him) – IT DOESN’T MATTER! If a family member solicits rewards for play, the player is supposed to be ineligible. PERIOD.

It’s been suggested that the NCAA might be taking a “maximum profit” approach, allowing Auburn to play for the national championship against Oregon rather than letting TCU, with their smaller following, into the biggest game. This would provide the most potential ad revenue for the NCAA. Then, a few years from now, the NCAA could go back, “find new evidence,” and vacate Auburn’s season, essentially milking the cash cow as long as possible until the Tigers aren’t quite as good a few years down the road. If it sounds familiar, it’s because it’s exactly what happened to USC. Why do you think the NCAA drags its feet for so long on these eligibility cases?

Finally, I’ve heard more debates recently about whether TCU deserves to play for the title if Oregon or Auburn loses. The announcers in the MAC championship tonight said the Horned Frogs don’t have the resume to deserve to get there. This is predicated on the faulty logic that the power conferences are really significantly stronger than the others. I don’t know how you can make that argument any more.

While the BCS conferences are certainly deeper and don’t have as many bad teams at the bottom of the standings, the tops of all the leagues have grown much closer in the past five years. TCU and yes, Boise State can beat anyone in the country. At this point their competition is irrelevant, because their rosters are as talented as anyone’s. If Oregon or Auburn go down this week, I will be praying that TCU gets into the national championship. You’ve got to think about the bigger picture, and the Horned Frogs upsetting the comfortable imbalance college football has settled into would be huge for the long-term fortunes of the sport. The BCS has to end, and this is the best way we can speed up the process.