It’s excruciating going more than a week without college football, but fortunately the sport’s “second season” generally packs a ton of excitement into the succeeding weeks. True, there are far too many mediocre teams in bowls, but look at the bright side – maybe we’ll see some close matchups! I know I’m ready for a clean slate after last year’s disastrous pick-a-thon, so I’ll have another go at choosing the winners this time around.
One thing I learned – painfully – during the 2009 bowls was that regular season performance often has little to do with postseason success. I know, it seems as if I should have known that a long time ago with all the football I watch, but last year was the first time it was really drilled into my head. I shan’t forget that lesson.
Bowls are hard to predict because they mean something different to every team. On one hand, you have schools like Baylor, who are delighted to even get to a bowl game. On the other, you have teams like Alabama, who stumbled their way to an underachieving record and probably believe they should be playing in a better game. Motivation, which is rarely lacking in college football’s regular season, is often no where to be found in bowls.
Look at Oregon State in last year’s Vegas Bowl: four points from beating Oregon and playing in the Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champs, the Beavers tumbled all the way to the conference’s fifth bowl slot after losing the Civil War and got matched up with BYU. Were the Beavers better than the Cougars? Their regular season play said yes, but the beating the lethargic squad took in Vegas said otherwise.
It’s also sometimes the case that a disrespected team will rise to the occasion and play only for pride. Was Utah really a better team than Alabama in 2008? I doubt it. But the Utes, furious at the nation’s ho-hum response to their undefeated year, smacked the Crimson Tide in the mouth in the Sugar Bowl.
Coaching changes, player/academic scandals, and injuries can all also play a part in determining if a team shows up ready to play or to just take a vacation. There are innumerable contributing factors in bowls. So don’t be surprised if my picks are wrong again. I’m not here to win you bets, I’m just giving the most reasoned analysis I can based on what I’ve seen this year.
I won’t comment on the bowl names this year, because everyone already knows how ridiculous they are. I will divide the games up in the same way I did last year, by ranking them in terms of how watchable they should be to the average fan. Here we go (All times Pacific):
The Don’t Bothers
New Mexico Bowl
BYU vs. UTEP
Dec. 18, 11:00 a.m.
BYU disappointed this season and there’s nothing special about UTEP. It’s a matchup of fun acronyms but mediocre, 6-6 teams. Both the Cougars and Miners lost to all the decent teams on their respective schedules. BYU was better down the stretch, rebounding from a 1-4 start to earn bowl eligibility, so I’ll take the Cougars.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Ohio vs. Troy
Dec. 18, 6:00 p.m.
Neither of these teams are awful, but there’s just nothing intriguing about this game. I saw Ohio play once, when they upset Temple in the middle of their seven-game win streak that should have won them the MAC East. Instead, the Bobcats dropped their final game to Kent State and had to watch as Miami (OH) – a team they beat – won the conference title. The Trojans have the superior offense, particularly passing the ball, so I’m picking Troy.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Louisville
Dec. 21, 5:00 p.m.
While I applaud Louisville for getting to bowl eligibility, the fact is that the Cardinals went 6-6 despite playing in the Big East. Southern Miss’ defense isn’t great, but they put up points in bunches and only got shut down once all season. The Golden Eagles will win.
Little Caesars Bowl
Florida International vs. Toledo
Dec. 26, 5:30 p.m.
Hooray! FIU made it to their first bowl game and won their first-ever FBS conference title! Now back to reality, where the Panthers face a pretty solid Rockets team that only lost one game in MAC play. Unless FIU is extremely fired up for this game, I don’t see Toledo losing.
Military Bowl
East Carolina vs. Maryland
Dec. 29, 11:30 a.m.
Maryland was a very mediocre team from the very mediocre ACC. ECU has a great offense but took a step down after winning back-to-back Conference USA titles. The x-factor here is the Terrapins’ coaching situation; offense coordinator James Franklin has already left to become the new coach at Vanderbilt, while head coach Ralph Friedgen is reportedly being forced into retirement. That kind of thing before a bowl never bodes well so ECU is the pick.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Kansas State vs. Syracuse
Dec. 30, 12:20 p.m.
College football in New York has a pretty sordid history, and this game doesn’t look to change that much. K-State is decent but faltered late in the season, while ‘Cuse was improved from last year but is still just average. This is just an ugly matchup of so-so teams. I’ll go with the Wildcats because I like RB Daniel Thomas.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Dec. 30, 3:40 p.m.
A team racked by scandal and underachievement (UNC) faces off against a why-are-we-even-in-a-bowl Tennessee squad. North Carolina should have absolutely no trouble in this one, but this entire year has been such a disappointment for the Tar Heels it’s tough to know what to expect out of them.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Georgia vs. Central Florida
Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.
Georgia was one of the biggest flops in the country in 2010. I like UCF, but their 10-3 record is a little misleading. I expect a hard-fought game now that the Bulldogs have finally gotten a little momentum, but I’m still going to go with the Knights.
Outback Bowl
Florida vs. Penn State
Jan. 1, 10:00 a.m.
There’s a couple of proud names here and very little substance. Neither team deserves to be in the postseason, let alone playing on New Year’s Day. Will the Gators respond now the Urban Meyer has retired (again), or will the team be flat and undisciplined heading into an offseason of change? That will decide this game. Plus I don’t think Penn State is very good at all. Florida wins.
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Middle Tennessee vs. Miami (OH)
Jan. 6, 5:00 p.m.
Bad enough that these two teams made it into a bowl. The fact that they’re playing on January 6th is the ultimate slap in the face to college football fans. Really? We wait nine days after the Rose Bowl for the title game, and this is what we get? Miami finished the season on a tear and won the MAC title. The Redhawks should have no trouble with the Blue Raiders.
BBVA Compass Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky
Jan. 8, 9:00 a.m.
Pittsburgh was another one of the biggest disappointments this season along with Georgia and North Carolina. Once considered a title contender, the Panthers fell off the map completely with an atrocious 7-5 year. Kentucky managed to win two conference games, but thanks to the beloved SEC practice of scheduling four nonconference patsies the Wildcats got to a bowl. Common sense says to take Pitt, but I just can’t trust anyone from the Big East. I say Kentucky wins it.
The Eh, Maybes
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Dec. 18, 2:30 p.m.
I’ll admit that I have a soft spot for both these schools, hence my decision to move them up from the “unwatchable” category. But to be fair, NIU has had a nice year with 10 wins, and three of Fresno’s four losses are to Nevada, Hawaii and Boise State. Besides, the Bulldogs are usually worth watching in any game. I’ll take Fresno State.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. Tulsa
Dec. 24, 5:00 p.m.
Expect points. Lots of ‘em. Both teams love to air it out, and neither has the defense to stop the other. This nice little pre-holiday offering should serve as prime entertainment, and hey, it’s in Hawaii. You get to imagine you’re soaking in 70-plus degree weather for a couple of hours. I was impressed with the Warriors this year, and they were the only team to beat Nevada. Hawaii should win.
Champs Sports Bowl
West Virginia vs. North Carolina State
Dec. 28, 3:30 p.m.
This should be a better game than it is, but the Wolfpack will undoubtedly have a letdown after blowing a shot at their first-ever ACC championship appearance and the Mountaineers haven’t been as sharp as usual this year. NCSU QB Russell Wilson is worth seeing, though. Because of him, I’ll go with the Wolfpack.
Insight Bowl
Missouri vs. Iowa
Dec. 28, 7:00 p.m.
Both of these squads started with a lot of expectations and came up well short. While the names of the teams would seemingly indicate that a good game is likely, there’s really not a lot to get excited about here. What do you want to see most – a pair of overrated QB’s, a couple of above-average-but-not-special defenses, or couple of good-guy coaches who can’t win the big game? You see my point. Mizzou wins.
Texas Bowl
Illinois vs. Baylor
Dec.29, 3:00 p.m.
The reason this game is moderately viewable is mostly due to Baylor playing in their first bowl game since 1994, though Bears QB Robert Griffin is also a treat. Illinois was terrible for most of the season and didn’t really beat anyone worthwhile. Baylor faltered against the top teams they played, but I think they’re much better and will win.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. SMU
Dec. 30, 9:00 a.m.
Let’s face it, although it’s nice that all the service academies got to bowls, Army is not very good. SMU is decent, but the real reason to watch this game is the Mustangs’ offense. If you want to see the real Run and Shoot, only Hawaii runs it as effectively, and head coach June Jones (formerly at Hawaii) is as big an innovator as exists in college football. It’s just a cool philosophy to see. I’ll take SMU.
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Nebraska vs. Washington
Dec. 30, 7:00 p.m.
Man. The Holiday Bowl wound up with their nightmare matchup in this one, getting two squads that had already faced each other in the regular season. Even worse, the Cornhuskers blew out the Huskies in the first meeting. What’s changed? Not much. I expect UW QB Jake Locker to play better than his career-worst 4-20 performance back in September, but it would still take an inspired performance for Washington to win this game.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
South Florida vs. Clemson
Dec. 31, 9:00 a.m.
In years past this would have been a very intriguing contest. Unfortunately, neither of these teams played particularly inspiring ball in 2010. It’s hard to care a lot about this game, but there is the X-factor that is USF’s tendency to play to the level of their competition. Seven of the Bulls’ last eight games were decided by eight points or fewer. So there’s a chance this will be a close game. However, when in doubt, go against the Big East. I like Clemson.
TicketCity Bowl
Northwestern vs. Texas Tech
Jan. 1, 9:00 a.m.
If only Wildcats QB Dan Persa wasn’t out. This game would be eminently more watchable. You still get to see a couple of good spread teams go at it, but it’s just not quite the same. There’s still potential for a shootout, though, so that’s a plus. As some defenses in the past have had success slowing the Red Raiders in their bowl games, I’m going with Northwestern.
Progressive Gator Bowl
Mississippi State vs. Michigan
Jan. 1, 10:30 a.m.
Of course, the Bulldogs and Wolverines have no business playing on New Year’s, but that’s par for the course nowadays, it seems. MSU was good all year, but got hammered by every great team they played (except, curiously, Auburn). Michigan’s magnificent offense was hamstrung by their atrocious defense, though I still think Denard Robinson makes enough plays in this game to take it.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Nevada vs. Boston College
Jan. 9, 6:00 p.m.
Nevada deserved better. Alas, they’ll have to settle for a date with another nondescript squad from the equally nondescript ACC. There should be no way the Eagles beat the Wolf Pack, but you never know. Perhaps the time off will give their defense some insight into how to slow down the vaunted Pistol.
The Fanhood Testers
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Navy vs. San Diego State
Dec. 23, 5:00 p.m.
You get the always-enjoyable triple-option from Navy and the great team no one’s talking about in SDSU. The Aztecs’ largest loss was by five courtesy of TCU, and SDSU gave the Horned Frogs all they could handle. I like Navy a lot, but the best team they beat was probably Notre Dame. I think San Diego State comes through in this game, unless Midshipmen QB Ricky Dobbs goes off.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Air Force vs. Georgia Tech
Dec. 27, 2:00 p.m.
Do my eyes deceive me? Not one, but two option offenses in the same game? Football purists, unite! This is a great old-school matchup featuring the two best rushing offenses in the country. Tech fell apart after winning the ACC last year and stumbled at the end of this season, losing four of their last five. Air Force, on the other hand, only lost to good teams: Oklahoma, San Diego State, TCU and Utah. And they only got blown out once, by TCU. I’ll go with the Falcons.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Arizona
Dec. 29, 6:15 p.m.
Oklahoma State was by far the more consistent and explosive team this season, but Arizona is capable of hanging with the Cowboys if the Wildcats can get back to playing like they did early in the year. ‘Zona was less than the sum of their parts much of the year and should have had a better record. OSU ripped off huge offensive totals but their defense is horrible. They’ll win, but in a shootout.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Miami (FL)
Dec. 31, 11:00 a.m.
I’ll admit that this contest is made more watchable by the fact that it’s Notre Dame-Miami. It’s just the Sun Bowl, but come on. These are two of the most storied programs of all time, fighting on their way back up. Neither will ever be what they were, but that’s really irrelevant. I like Notre Dame because the Hurricanes’ coaching change will likely be on their minds.
Chick-fil-A Bowl
South Carolina vs. Florida State
Dec. 31, 4:30 p.m.
A couple of really solid squads. The Gamecocks might have gotten a little overrated thanks to their somewhat miraculous win over Alabama, and it’ll be interesting to see if they can dominate a supposedly inferior ACC team. I think FSU is better, but I’m only taking them if ‘Noles QB Christian Ponder plays.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Connecticut vs. Oklahoma
Jan. 1, 5:30 p.m.
Could this be the worst BCS bowl ever? Worse than Utah-Pitt 2005? Worse than… well, that’s the worst one I can remember. There’s a chance. UConn, bless their plucky little hearts, is totally outclassed against this level of competition. This is a team that Michigan handled with ease, people. It would take a total meltdown from the Sooners for the Huskies to have a shot.
AT&T Cotton Bowl
LSU vs. Texas A&M
Jan. 7, 5:00 p.m.
It’s not quite at the level of a BCS bowl, but the Cotton Bowl has always had a nice flavor to it. This year, we once again get to see a fine matchup of power teams that should give us a good game. LSU’ luck ran out against rival Arkansas late in the year, while A&M ripped off six straight wins and is one of the nation’s hottest teams. I’ll go with the Aggies.
The Must-Sees
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas
Utah vs. Boise State
Dec. 22, 5:00 p.m.
This one is big. Utah needs to be able to shut up the doubters (like me) who said they rode a weak schedule to a high ranking. Boise wants to prove that the Nevada game was a total fluke. Someone’s going home unhappy. Who will it be? I think Utah will play well, but the Broncos should impose their will.
Capital One Bowl
Alabama vs. Michigan State
Jan. 1, 10:00 a.m.
Finally! A non-BCS matchup of two good BCS-conference power teams. The Spartans had a magical year, but it’s fair to wonder if they just caught Wisconsin at the right time. They weren’t really battle-tested and got hammered by Iowa. Alabama, on the other hand, was challenged early and often and struggled with injuries and inconsistency. With a month-ish off, I think they’ll handle MSU.
Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs. TCU
Jan. 1, 2:00 p.m.
Ooh, this is a good one. The nation’s best scoring defense versus arguably the nation’s top offense. Who will prevail in this battle of the titans? Although I’ve been supportive of TCU all year, I’m not sure that they can win this game. The Badgers have just been impossibly good the last several games. If they lose their rhythm in the time off, maybe the Horned Frogs have a shot at containing them.
Discover Orange Bowl
Stanford vs. Virginia Tech
Jan. 3, 5:30 p.m.
This is a matchup of another pair of red-hot teams. Stanford was only beaten by Oregon, while Tech reeled off 11 straight in their drive for the ACC championship. These squads both have blue-collar, pro-style mentalities, so it’ll be great fun to watch them try to pound the ball at each other. I think the Cardinal have the edge on the offensive line and at QB, so I’m going with Stanford.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Ohio State vs. Arkansas
Jan. 4, 5:30 p.m.
Ohio State gets another chance against the SEC, eh? The Buckeyes’ struggles against teams from the South have been well-documented, so all the pressure is on Jim Tressel’s guys. Arkansas is just happy to be there. OSU has been so bad in these games it’s hard to know what to expect of them. Will Arkansas be able to scheme in the next weeks to stop the Buckeye offense? I think Razorbacks QB Ryan Mallet is the best player in this game, which is why I’m taking Arkansas.
Tostitos BCS National Championship Game
Oregon vs. Auburn
Jan. 10, 5:30 p.m.
Yes, it’s not a dream, Duck fans. As this game approaches I’ll analyze it a bit more, but for now I’ll just recap what we all already know. Both teams have fantastic offenses and defenses that have at least one weakness. Both teams love to play fast and spread the ball around. Both teams have some elite playmakers on both sides. In short, it’s a classic championship-style bout. Whoever doesn’t turn the ball over and plays smart will probably win. I’ll cover the game more in the coming weeks.
My Pac-10 season review is also coming in the next few days.
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