This is Halloween

National Overview

That didn’t last long. So it turned out Oklahoma really was overrated, though Missouri was apparently better than I thought. Unless, of course, Oklahoma was so overrated that Missouri beating them is no big deal… which would make Missouri overrated as well. Huh? This is why we need a playoff, people.

I hate to pile on the Big 12, but common sense would dictate that the “overrated” theory is correct. Oklahoma’s BCS strength of schedule was built on “quality wins” over Air Force, Texas, and Cincinnati. All three teams lost Saturday; Air Force and Cincinnati by greater margins than their respective losses to the Sooners, Texas by only seven but to a terrible Iowa State squad.

In happy news, we finally saw LSU go down, so that charade is over. A lot of commentators talked about the so-called “eye test” this week, saying that the respect awarded the Tigers by the BCS was because the computers don’t account for margin of victory. LSU’s series of close wins in bumbling fashion was regarded just as highly by the computers as TCU’s string of dominant blowouts. The computers still like the Tigers way more than they should, but at least the loss to Auburn (should) make the human voters influence LSU’s ranking for the worse.

Oregon predictably shredded UCLA, though the 47-point win was still a bit eye-opening because of the ease with which the Ducks tossed the Bruins aside. Oregon’s strength of schedule is lagging behind the other contenders’ because of the lack of a margin-of-victory component. Still, the Pac-10 schedule gets anything but simpler for the Ducks in the weeks ahead, so they’ll have some chances to prove themselves (of course, so will the rest of the conference when they play UO).

The Big 10 saw a pair of close games that will probably end up having a big impact on the league’s title race. I really thought Iowa would flex their muscle and knock Wisconsin out of the Big 10 chase. Seeing the Badgers come back for that stirring win was pretty impressive, and it announced Bucky’s return as a contender.

Michigan State’s magical run continued with another close win, but I can’t help but feel that the Spartans’ good fortune might be about to run out. Another road game against a good opponent this week is going to be a real strain for MSU. Iowa will be mad after they left one get away against Wisconsin, and there’s no telling how much Michigan State will have left in the tank after their comeback victory over Northwestern. If the Spartans win, though… there’s almost nothing left to stop them from going 12-0.

If ever there was a year that a non-automatic-qualifying team could make it to the BCS championship, it would be this year. Boise State, TCU and Utah have to have been rubbing their hands with glee at the upsets of the past several weeks. We’re now perilously close to the ultimate Armageddon scenario (in the minds of the BCS computers, that is). Oregon, Auburn, MSU and Missouri all have legitimate tests in the next month and could conceivably lose. If they do, I don’t think there’s a good argument to keep the mid-majors out of the national championship. All three teams have proved over the last decade that they can play with anyone and beaten top BCS-conference foes. If the debate comes down to an undefeated power conference team and an undefeated BSU/TCU/Utah, the little guys will get left out. But if there’s only one undefeated team from the Big Six leagues…

Top 25

The BCS rankings continue to confound, so I’ll have to clear things up. Is Oregon the best team in the country? Maybe, maybe not, but I can say with certainty that they’re not eighth, where the computers have them. Auburn’s win over LSU helps their computer numbers, but I thought the Bayou Bengals were mediocre anyway. I can’t reward Auburn for beating an over-ranked team, which is why they’re not number two. I just rank ‘em how I see ‘em. It’s my version of that eye test everyone’s talking about.

1) Oregon

UCLA is not good. Oregon is. Ripping apart a bad team doesn’t lose you points unless you do it on a week-to-week basis. If someone has a win that makes them worthy of moving to number one ahead of the Ducks, I’ll do it. Until then, Oregon has the top spot. But they’d better beware of USC this weekend.

2) Boise State

Idle, which by my reasoning makes them vulnerable, right? Indeed. But I know and you know that LSU was not a top 10 team, regardless of whatever some computer wants to tell us. Boise State has earned their current ranking. The question of whether they can continue to be worthy of it remains to be seen.

3) Auburn

The Tigers could have put up another touchdown to pad their stats versus LSU, so credit them for showing restraint and class. But lost amid the HUGE TOP TEN SEC SHOWDOWN hype was the fact that LSU could have won this game. If Onterio McCalebb doesn’t rip off an unlikely 70-yard run in the fourth quarter, LSU’s crazy endgame luck could have prevailed again. And LSU, I believe I have established, is not a great team.

4) TCU

Big win over Air Force this week. If Auburn had played, say, Vanderbilt, I would have moved the Horned Frogs up to number three. You have to have sympathy for TCU as they get passed by every flash-in-the-pan hot BCS conference team. It’s unfortunately all too easy to imagine the stuffy poll voters as they fill out their ballots: “Oh sure, I can’t move (team X) past Boise, but TCU? Ha ha, of course I can.”

5) Stanford

The Cardinal’s lack of respect in every possible measure is baffling. What did Stanford do to make the voters so angry? Let’s review: they rise to number nine following a dominant first four games. Then they lose to Oregon by 21 on the road, a team the coaches think is so good they awarded the Ducks 50 of a possible 59 first-place votes this week. But Stanford is only 14^th, right behind LSU. Are you kidding me?!

6) Utah

Though Air Force went down hard to TCU last week, they’ll still provide a nice test for the Utes in their final game before facing the Horned Frogs. This game should demonstrate if Utah is for real; win big, and their undefeated start is validated. A loss, or even a close win, would be cause for a drop in the rankings.

7) Michigan State

The Spartans came very close to falling from the ranks of the unbeaten, but survived against Northwestern. This game provided ammunition for all the cynics who saw MSU as a cute little team that would eventually get exposed. It’s worth noting that Northwestern is actually a pretty good team, but this was also the Spartans’ first game outside their own state and they didn’t exactly acquit themselves well.

8) Missouri

I’m willing to move the Tigers up a lot after their win over Oklahoma; they earned it. But I’ll say it again – that was the first good team Mizzou has played all year. The last two teams to beat the number one team had very different results in their next game. Is Missouri closer to South Carolina (lost to Kentucky) or Wisconsin (beat Iowa)?

9) Alabama

No, I won’t move the Crimson Tide up just because they won. Ole Miss is maybe an average team, and that’s probably being kind. The Tide have plenty of opportunities ahead of them to take control of the SEC anyway, so they can impress me later on. Until they play LSU and Auburn, though, they don’t deserve any additional respect.

10) Arizona

The Nick Foles situation makes ranking the Wildcats a trickier proposition than before, but Matt Scott deflected any quarterback questions with his efficient, impressive play Saturday night. I really thought Washington would give ‘Zona a bigger challenge. Instead, they were completely outclassed. Arizona should handle UCLA easily this week and rest Foles. They’ll need him the following game at Stanford.

11) Wisconsin

So the Ohio State win wasn’t just a fluke. But it’s hard to say what else we know for sure about Wisconsin right now. They’ve played three good teams and beaten two of them, though they also struggled against some lesser competition. The main problem now for the Badgers is that they have to rely on a Michigan State loss to win the Big 10 title, and would need a second if they want to go the Rose Bowl.

12) Ohio State

49-0 over Purdue doesn’t really do anything for me, and Terrelle Pryor’s accuracy is quickly becoming laughable. However, the Buckeyes have been in this position in previous seasons and have always seemingly escaped out of nowhere with at least a share of the conference crown. I don’t think OSU is a top-10 ten, but they’re definitely not bad. Big 10 rivals would be foolish to prematurely celebrate their demise.

13) Arkansas

I’m banking a lot on the idea that Alabama is still an elite team. If not, Arkansas has nothing to go on, because their defense got shredded by Auburn and the Tide. I love the Razorback offense, which features the best QB and receiving core in the SEC, but the rest of the team is entirely average.

14) Nebraska

We’ll see what Nebraska can do to rebound after their Texas loss. Yes, the Cornhuskers actually already won last week at Oklahoma State, but the Cowboys don’t have anything resembling a defense. Missouri showed significant improvement defensively against Oklahoma, so this will be a legitimate test. It’s also a showdown that will probably determine the division winner.

15) Virginia Tech

The Hokies have a lot of momentum, even though no one was impressed by the blowout of lowly Duke. The ACC is weak enough that Tech might roll right through it undefeated, and fortunately for them the only team that could give them trouble is Florida State, who they won’t see until the title game.

16) Oklahoma

It’s disgusting that Oklahoma is still in the BCS top 10. The Sooners have looked shaky all year and when they finally found someone who could stand up to them, they lost. Their chances to go undefeated through the rest of their conference slate are less than great, and they’ll still have to face Nebraska or Missouri again if they get to the title game.

17) Florida State

FSU got a breather from, you know, their rough ACC schedule last week to prepare for North Carolina State. This is actually a pretty important contest because the Wolfpack are the only team with a realistic chance to challenge the ‘Noles in the Atlantic Division, but I think FSU should win.

18) South Carolina

This is a fairly enigmatic team right now. If you take away their win against Alabama, when they played basically a perfect game, they haven’t looked that good. The Gamecocks sandwiched the ‘Bama upset with losses to Auburn and Kentucky, and in both games they blew a fourth-quarter lead. They have to start winning with style against the rest of the weak SEC East if they want to impress anyone.

19) USC

The Trojans hammered Cal and got an extra week to prepare for the Oregon attack. Extra time in that regard has proved very important for teams in the past (all three teams that beat Oregon in 2009 had at least two weeks to prepare). This game will finally answer some questions about both the Trojans and Ducks; namely, whether Oregon is truly elite and whether SC is on their way back up or circling the drain.

20) Iowa

Iowa’s 2009 magic obviously isn’t around any more, and the Hawkeyes are suffering for it. That said, I think they’re the best team in the Big 10 and can absolutely knock off Michigan State this weekend. The problem, surprisingly enough, hasn’t been last season’s hero/goat, Ricky Stanzi. Rather, it’s been a defense unable to get crucial stops – most unlike traditional Iowa football. We’ll see if they can get back on track against the Spartans.

21) Mississippi State

I’m annoyed that I have to include the Bulldogs in my top 25. Their big win over Florida is nothing to be proud of, and they haven’t beaten anyone else of note. Unfortunately, pickings are slim at this point, and the fact that these guys have played eight games already (two months without a bye) makes them deserving of a little credit.

22) Oklahoma State

Nebraska isn’t an elite team, so ranking the Cowboys any higher than here is an absolute joke. I shouldn’t have to remind people that OSU has beaten no one decent. However, their offense is outstanding enough to make up for their lousy ‘D,’ and against most teams that’s all they’ll need. They don’t have a prayer at winning their division, but I can see eight or nine wins.

23) Oregon State

I made the same argument last year about the Beavers: everyone knows they’ll rattle off several wins in the last half of the season, beat a superior team, and be in the mix for the Pac-10 championship. I might as well reserve them a spot in the rankings now and look smart when they do what they always do. This year’s squad hasn’t looked as good as 2008 or 2009’s, but don’t kid yourself – Oregon State is always dangerous.

24) LSU

Everyone outside of Baton Rouge was overjoyed to see the Tigers go down. Sadly, I doubt this is the last we’ll see or hear of LSU this season. The computers love them so much, any kind of respectable record – 9-3, 10-2, etc. – will be rewarded extremely unjustly. They could still bumble their way into a BCS bowl if we’re not careful.

25) Miami (FL)

I hate that I had to move Miami back into the top 25, but as I said with Mississippi State, there’s not a whole lot left to choose from. The Hurricanes’ losses are to good teams, and they shouldn’t fall again before facing nemesis Virginia Tech in mid-November. As unlikely as it sounds given the way they’ve looked, Miami could still sneak into the ACC title game.

Pac-10 Thoughts

There wasn’t a whole lot to draw from last week’s games, as both Oregon State and USC were off and Oregon and Cal posted massive blowouts. I was surprised to see Arizona State take such a beating, but it’s clear now that the Sun Devils are essentially an average team. Cal’s home/away performance differential is now completely insane. The Bears have gone 4-0 at home by an average score of 47-9 and gone 0-3 on the road by an average score of 27-14. That’s just crazy.

This week’s matchups are far more interesting. Oregon has to face perhaps their toughest test yet at USC, Oregon State gets a chance to rebound against Cal, and Stanford will try for revenge after last year’s last-second loss to Washington. Arizona-UCLA should be ugly, but there’s another game involving an Arizona school that has potential. Washington State is playing a reeling ASU team with a great shot at their first Pac-10 win since 2008. Can the Cougars end their appalling 14-game conference losing streak?

The Oregon-USC contest has gotten a lot of press, for good reason. It’s been touted as an official changing-of-the-guard moment for the conference (as if last season’s 47-20 beat down at Autzen wasn’t enough).However, I just don’t think this is accurate. USC is absolutely capable of beating Oregon, but if they do, it’s not the end of the world for the Ducks, who can still play for the Pac-10 championship. Likewise, if Oregon continues their dominant play and beats SC, I don’t see how this game would signify the end of their dynasty. To me, that moment came in the USC-Stanford game last year, when the Cardinal hammered the Trojans (in the Coliseum, no less). USC can and probably will rise again from their sanctions and be a very good team. But that special USC magic was officially lost when Stanford dropped 50 on them.

Heisman Watch

No changes in my rankings this week… no one did enough to move up or down, and no outsiders played well enough to add themselves to the list.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

I’ll say this about Newton: he is absolutely not a QB. He’s a brilliant runner and athlete, but let’s please stop the charade of calling him a “running QB.” He’s a running back, plain and simple. With that said, though, he’s still been the best player in the country through the first two months of the season.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

James was actually a little underwhelming against UCLA, though it’s a good sign if 123 yards and two TD’s is considered disappointing. He didn’t hurt himself, but wasn’t special enough to move up. It will be interesting to see how he plays against USC; the 2009 Trojan game was James’ launching pad, when he ran for nearly 200 yards and three scores.

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck hasn’t failed to throw fewer than two TD’s in any game this season. His consistency is just as impressive as his physical tools, and he’s as mechanically sound as any QB in the country. When he gets into a rhythm he’s completely unstoppable, and he’s also in the advantageous position of having a defense that can’t always be counted on, forcing him to play full games.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

The numbers (1,800 yards, 18 TD’s and two INT’s) are eye-popping even before you consider that Moore hasn’t played in most fourth quarters. If Boise State wanted to, they could let him throw for 400 yards and five scores a game, but at this point that’s not necessary to garner respect. When you play at as high a level as Moore has for as long as he has, there’s not much more to say.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In my rant against the BCS last week, I forgot to mention that the system screw-ups I was talking about were only the only involving the top two rankings and thus the national championship game. There have been plenty of other terrible computer decisions involving teams that just wanted to make it to a BCS bowl.

As far as I can recall, the biggest issues in the non-championship BCS rankings have come from the fact that the system is ridiculously unequal. The deference paid to the major conferences is bad enough in itself, but does anyone actually know what Notre Dame’s tie-in to the system is?

Any team hoping to secure an at-large BCS bid (meaning they did not win their conference championship) must be ranked in the top four of the BCS standings to earn a subsequent automatic bid. Notre Dame, on the other hand, needs to only be ranked in the top eight. This is known as the “Notre Dame rule” and applies only to the Fighting Irish. Why? Because Notre Dame in the BCS equals more viewers and more revenue. Because of this, the school has played in three BCS bowls it did not deserve to and got annihilated each time: 41-9 to Oregon State in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl, 34-20 to Ohio State in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, and 41-14 to LSU in the 2007 Sugar Bowl.

At the end of the 2005 season Oregon was fifth in the BCS standings, while Notre Dame was sixth. Oregon had one loss, to top-ranked USC, while Notre Dame had lost to USC as well as Michigan. Common sense would dictate that the Ducks deserved a BCS invite over the Irish, but because of the “Notre Dame rule” they were passed up.

However, it’s unfair to say that all of the BCS controversy is because of Notre Dame. How about just one year before the Ducks-Irish debate, when Texas inexplicably leapfrogged Cal in the final week of the Coaches’ poll, securing them the coveted number four BCS spot? If you don’t remember, this is what happened:

With one week left in the regular season, Cal was ranked fourth in both polls and the BCS. Just ahead of Texas. The Bears had lost just once, to number one USC. Texas had one loss as well, to second-ranked Oklahoma. Cal had led Texas in the rankings every single week since the inaugural BCS standings that year and would have finished the season in the same position had it not been for a scheduling quirk.

The Bears were supposed to play Southern Miss (an average Conference-USA team) back in September, but the contest had been moved to the last week of the season because of a hurricane warning during the week the game was originally scheduled. No matter, Cal thought. We’ll just beat the Golden Eagles and be on our way to a BCS bowl.

But during the week, Texas coach Mack Brown conducted a shameless public campaign to convince voters that Texas should be number four, based on nothing but the obvious fact that he wanted his team to get the money and exposure of a BCS game. When Cal only beat USM by 10, the voters complied with Brown’s wishes, sending Texas to the Rose Bowl. (This is why it was so hard for me to have sympathy for Texas in 2008 when they got screwed by the BCS.)

There was also the Illinois situation in 2007, when the Rose Bowl selected a horribly unworthy Illini team just for the sake of having a Big 10 team. That year also saw Kansas go to the Orange Bowl over the Missouri team that beat them. In 2009 we had five undefeated teams, but only Texas and Alabama got a shot at the title, because, you know, everyone just knew Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU weren’t as good. (Note: I actually agreed. But that doesn’t make it fair.)

Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon was just suspended a game for his recent DUI charge. Everything I’ve read says that Blackmon is a good guy and has taken responsibility for his poor decision. But I wish someone would explain something to me.

Georgia’s A.J. Green missed the first four games of this season after being suspended by the NCAA for selling his 2009 Independence Bowl jersey (reportedly for a few hundred dollars). OK, fine. If the NCAA wants to continue to perpetuate the myth that college athletes are “amateurs,” then Green did indeed break the rules. I think this kind of thing is shady anyway, so a suspension is warranted. But how is Green’s infraction four times worse than Blackmon’s?

Understand, the NCAA suspended Green, while Blackmon has only been suspended by his coach thus far. He might receive additional games off. But if the NCAA lets Blackmon’s punishment stand, what kind of message is it sending? I’m thinking it’s something along the lines of:

“It’s not acceptable for student-athletes to drive drunk – but much worse to for them to sell their own property to make a few bucks while bringing in millions of dollars in revenue for their school.”

By the way, if you want to buy a replica A.J. Green jersey (#8), you’re welcome to do so for $59.95 or $74.95 at this site, courtesy of the University of Georgia, haven of “amateur” athletics!

Short notes: If you want a sign that the game of college football is changing, look no further than the individual rushing yards per game leaders. Just 21 players are currently averaging more than 100 yards a game on the ground, including three QB’s. On the flip side, there are 61 QB’s averaging at least 200 yards passing a game… The Pistol has become the offensive set du jour, much like the Wildcat a few years ago. Commentators have become quick to note when a team has success with the Pistol but ignore it when it fails. The Pistol is almost identical to the standard zone-read, yet people act as if it is some brilliant new invention. Hello – Nevada’s been running it for years, you just didn’t pay attention. It’s just another formation, with the same amount of strengths and weaknesses as any other… I love hearing analysts say they’re giving Boise State “respect” and ranking them outside the top three – in what world is that respect? No, Boise (or TCU) couldn’t go undefeated in a Pac-10/SEC/Big 12/Big 10 schedule, but they can beat any team in a one-game shot, which is all they’re asking for. Either give the little guys actual respect in the form of a top-two ranking or stop lying to yourself… If USC wins this week, would it be the first positive thing Lane Kiffin has accomplished in his entire career? I certainly can’t think of anything else. Debate amongst yourselves, until we meet again.