Mid-October Madness

National Overview

This week marks the one-year anniversary of Making Sense of Saturday! Once again, thanks to everyone who has visited the site in the past year. I hope I can continue to entertain and inform you in the future.

Two big upsets of traditional powers and two big upsets of teams Boise State beat defined this past weekend. Ohio State going down in flames at Wisconsin was surprising, though not totally unexpected. The bigger final score came from Lincoln, where Nebraska was revealed to be pretender.

The fact that the Cornhuskers’ got worked the way they did says a lot, considering their lingering anger from last year’s Big 12 title game and their desire to beat Texas one last time as a conference foe. When I’m wrong in my predictions I’ll face up to them; that’s what makes the Nebraska loss particularly sweet for me. I saw that Nebraska and Taylor Martinez were destined for a fall, so it was fun to get instant vindication on that one.

Boise State was the biggest loser of the weekend despite their 48-0 victory over San Jose State. The BCS computers’ complete lack of respect for anything Boise was broadcast to the world Sunday evening, when the Broncos – initially projected to be first in the BCS standings – saw their computer ranking actually drop because of Oregon State’s loss and the perceived weakness of SJSU.

The BCS rankings were the most important result of the weekend, though people were justifiably surprised at how several teams made out so well compared to others. Oklahoma’s number one ranking was just one of many bizarre ones. Why do the computers like the Big 12 so much? I’ll talk about this later.

Alabama was a winner as well, as the Crimson Tide were shown to still pretty much control their own destiny. A 12-1 SEC Champion Tide squad, with wins over Auburn, LSU and Arkansas, would get tons of love from the computers. There’s obviously a lot of football left to be played, but ‘Bama’s number eight BCS ranking demonstrates that the old adage about college football is true: it’s not necessarily if you lose, but when you lose that counts.

The Pac-10 probably felt a little jilted after receiving so much respect from writers around the country and only seeing three member schools in the BCS. If that continues, it will be a cause for outrage, but remember that the conference was unusually quiet on Saturday. Only three league games were played, and the best game involved what would have been a top-25 team in Oregon State losing.

And finally, let us shed a tear for Air Force and Nevada. The Falcons did already have a loss, but it was still conceivable that they could have run the table in the Mountain West and been America’s favorite underdog of 2010. Nevada couldn’t measure up against a good-but-not-great Hawaii team and can now only shoot as high as the WAC championship, if they’re lucky. Boise State was also horrified to see the Wolf Pack go down, but fans of mid-majors in general ended up disappointed this week.

Top 25

As always, my rankings are extremely flexible and account for week-to-week power shifts. I do not consider the BCS rankings when making my top 25; they are so far removed from reality they are effectively irrelevant to any rational discussion.

1) Oregon

“Number one loses, number two becomes number one.” Terry Bowden, those words were never truer. Ohio State’s loss is Oregon’s gain, as the Ducks take the top spot in the rankings for the first time. The Ducks picked a good time to have a bye, as no one else had a big enough win to leapfrog them.

2) Boise State

The Broncos continue to receive divine providence in the form of BCS heavyweights going down, but there’s still a long way to go. Some commentators have predicted that Boise might need all the other contenders to have two losses to get into the title game; that seems extreme to me, but the current BCS standings certainly don’t give the team any reason to be optimistic.

3) Auburn

I’m not sold on Arkansas or South Carolina as anything more than above-average teams, but Auburn has still done enough to this point to warrant a significant jump. Their defense is just awful, though. The Tigers also haven’t yet played anyone with a defense good enough to determine if Auburn’s offense is actually great. Cam Newton has been otherworldly, but the competition he’s faced has been subpar. I just don’t know if Auburn can continue this streak.

4) TCU

TCU has become the forgotten BCS buster as everyone focuses on the clear number one (Boise State) and the plucky upstart (Utah). The Horned Frogs are a very good team, but their single marquee win over Oregon State has now been reduced to throwaway status. They need to start blowing out the best teams in the Mountain West to have any chance at the national championship.

5) Stanford

Stanford doesn’t play and jumps Utah? No it’s not fair, but there are reasons for it. I believe that the “eye test” sufficiently demonstrates that the Cardinal are better than the Utes. Everyone thought Stanford was a top-10 team before the Oregon game – if Oregon is now number one, why is Stanford getting punished in the polls for losing that game?

6) Utah

Utah keeps sliding up in my poll without making a statement against a big-time opponent. But if you’re consistent – which I believe I am – I can’t move Oklahoma ahead of Utah after the Sooners blew out the same Iowa State team that Utah did. That makes no sense. The Utes get Air Force and TCU back-to-back, so the next couple of weeks should provide all the evidence we need to determine if this team is good.

7) Oklahoma

I don’t know what to make of this Sooners team. They’ve won big against a bad team (ISU) and a pretty good one (Florida State), then struggled in every other contest. I certainly think they’re better than Missouri and will win this weekend, but that’s not exactly a glowing endorsement. Unless they can consistently play with the fire they showed against FSU this team is going to get upset.

8) Alabama

What is wrong with the “Bama offense? Specifically, it’s the line and running backs, but don’t forget to apportion the appropriate amount of disgust for the passing game either. Simply put, this team hasn’t looked like itself in a while. Their schedule allows them the luxury of coasting for a couple weeks, but eventually these issues need to get worked out if the Tide want to return to the SEC title game, let alone the national championship.

9) Michigan State

MSU struggled a bit versus Illinois, but it’s fair to say the strain of playing back-to-back ranked teams hurt them a little in the first half. The next two games will essentially decide Sparty’s future: on the road against a sneaky-good Northwestern squad and at Iowa, State must win. A 9-0 start at that point could have this team smelling roses – or possibly, even more.

10) Arizona

Hmm. The Wildcats put down Washington State with little trouble but had to watch quarterback Nick Foles go down with a “knee sprain.” Dennis Dixon, anyone? If Foles really is able to return in a few weeks ‘Zona might still have a shot at the Pac-10 championship, but their schedule is nasty enough that they shouldn’t go unbeaten even with Foles. Games at Stanford and Oregon will be rough, and the Wildcats still have to play a rejuvenated USC and rival Arizona State at home.

11) Iowa

Everything sets up beautifully for the Hawkeyes to win the Big 10 title again. Main contenders Wisconsin, MSU and Ohio State all have to come to Iowa City, which means Iowa can afford a misstep in one of their remaining road games if they just take care of business at home. This is probably the most complete Big 10 team offensively and defensively, and they’ll be a very tough out the rest of the way.

12) Wisconsin

The big win over Ohio State revived the Badgers’ conference title dreams. Now they have to match that performance every week. I still think Wisconsin will be done in again by their inability to throw the ball. They’re just not a good passing team. We’ve seen in recent years that one-dimensional teams can’t rise to elite status because good defenses will shut them down.

13) Ohio State

These guys seem to be the constant underachievers. Blessed year in and year out with nearly unparalleled talent, a gloriously easy schedule and tons of media attention, the Buckeyes can’t get out of their own way. Every year they lose a conference game they shouldn’t, and Jim Tressel’s absurdly conservative philosophy ends up costing them about a game a year as well. With the players they have, OSU should be better.

14) Arkansas

Well, all those preseason fears about the defense have been verified. Again. There’s no doubt Arkansas has a great offense, but their “D” just keeps giving up big play after big play. The fact that the Razorbacks probably have the best backup QB in the country is going to be little consolation for their fans, who watched another winnable game disappear thanks to defensive ineptitude.

15) Florida State

That Boston College win was way too close. The ACC isn’t good enough for FSU to sleepwalk through and expect to get respect. The ‘Noles can really only realistically shoot for the Orange Bowl, but that’s still no reason to get complacent. What surprises me is how well Jimbo Fisher is doing in his first season as head coach. Was Bobby Bowden really holding this team back that much?

16) Nebraska

I hate to say “I told you so…” Well, actually I don’t. Like I said last week, you get a feel for running QB’s after watching enough of them. My gut told me that Taylor Martinez couldn’t throw a pass to save his life, and the Texas game proved that quite nicely. Against good defenses, the Cornhuskers are going to have to significantly adjust their strategy if they hope to contend for the final Big 12 title.

17) LSU

Oh, LSU, LSU. Now that we know the Florida win isn’t worth anything, how can we take this team’s championship hopes seriously? The Tigers are too inept offensively to be a threat to any serious contenders. That’s why this week’s Auburn game is so intriguing. LSU’s bad offense and great defense match up perfectly against Auburn’s terrible “D” and explosive offense. Can they actually win the battle of the Tigers? Tune in and find out.

18) Oklahoma State

What impresses you most about the Cowboys? Their blowout of Washington State? Their three-point win over Texas A&M? Their 17-point win over Texas Tech? You can see what I’m getting at here. Okie State’s schedule gets a lot tougher in upcoming weeks, and I have a distinct feeling that they won’t stay undefeated much longer.

19) Virginia Tech

Tech has ripped off five straight double-digit wins after their disastrous start. Yes, the Hokies are back. To make matters worse for the rest of the ACC, their once-daunting schedule doesn’t seem nearly as intimidating as it did before the season. Another division title and a return to the Orange Bowl is very likely for this squad.

20) South Carolina

Ugh. Blowing a double-digit lead to Kentucky to fall to .500 in the SEC? Come on, Gamecocks. Despite their epic gag job in Lexington, South Carolina is still atop the East Division and absolutely should make their first-ever trip to the conference championship game. They’ve just got to avoid inconsistent play like last Saturday.

21) Missouri

I feel the same way about these guys that I do about Oklahoma State. They haven’t played anyone. Their best win is still over a mediocre Texas A&M team. It’s baffling that the computers have the Tigers ranked so high, something that I’ll talk about later. They’ll get a great chance to prove that they’re any good this week against Oklahoma.

22) West Virginia

The Mountaineers deserve to be back in the rankings after a couple solid wins, but the fact that they’re the class of the Big East is completely embarrassing. I still love Noel Devine, though, and Geno Smith has proved himself to be a solid point man for this offense. As long as WVU stays focused, another BCS bowl should be waiting for them at the end of this year.

23) Oregon State

At 3-3 it looks pretty ridiculous to still have the Beavers ranked. Here’s why they deserve it: they’ve played the nation’s toughest schedule; the Washington loss came after QB Ryan Katz played the worst game of his life and they only lost by one in double overtime; OSU is always a strong second-half team, no one in the Pac-10 wants to play them. That’s reason enough for me.

24) USC

The Trojans looked remarkably good in their thrashing of Cal this week. It remains to be seen USC is back or if that was just because Cal is horrible, but keep in mind that the Trojans get a bye before facing Oregon next weekend. With an upset against the Ducks, the Trojans could announce that they’re not ready to concede the conference to Oregon.

25) Texas

Back in the rankings after their impressive shutdown of Nebraska, the Longhorns need to play better on offense to maintain this status. It will take a long time for that UCLA loss to stop hurting them, but if they can get through their mostly-manageable schedule they can accomplish that.

Pac-10 Thoughts

Cal has officially taken over the “Jekyll and Hyde” mantle from UCLA. A week after dismantling the Bruins by four touchdowns, the Bears looked about as horrible as a team can, falling behind 45-0 at USC. Nobody can be sure what Cal team is going to show up week to week, which has become an ugly trend under head coach Jeff Tedford. Most of their problems appear to come on the road, where they’ve lost all three games by an average of more than 18 points.

Washington probably saved their season with the Oregon State win this week. At 3-3, they still need to win half their remaining games to reach bowl eligibility, which would have been nearly impossible without the OSU win. With only two home games left, one of which is against Stanford, UW will likely have to beat at least one ranked opponent on the road to get to six wins. The problem? Those teams are Oregon and Arizona.

Just when you thought Oregon State had begun their annual post-September upswing, the Beavers went ahead and bumbled away a winnable game against the Huskies. Of course, OSU usually loses a Pac-10 game they shouldn’t, but this one was still surprising because of how good they looked the week before. However, the Beavs now get the perfect remedy to any team’s ills – Cal! At home! Off a bye week! You can pencil that “W” in now.

Heisman Watch

It’s so hard to predict how the Heisman race will turn out, and I’m on the record as saying that the award is, in general, a sham. The best player in the country is almost never a running back or QB, but that’s what almost all of the Heisman winners have been. Linemen and defensive players are total afterthoughts, but do just as much work as the glory positions. The low-profile guys get shafted every year.

With that being said… I am subject to the same biases as everyone else, thus I grade Heisman contenders in the same way most voters do. Skill position players dominate the board. My first Heisman list looks like this:

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Newton’s been truly remarkable so far. He’s become the player we all thought Denard Robinson was. However, he hasn’t played a single above-average defense to date… with LSU in town this week, we’ll have to watch closely to see what he does. Taylor Martinez was completely exposed against Texas; will Newton share the same fate?

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

His deadly speed and vision have made him the leading rusher in the country, but James’ underrated toughness and durability have also been key to his success. If the Ducks keep rolling as they have been, his stock will continue to rise.

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Big, fairly mobile, poised, and accurate, Luck is easily the most NFL-ready player in this year’s class. He threw a couple bad balls at Oregon, but that’s about it as far as his shortcomings. He’s the perfect leader for Stanford’s style of play, and a high Pac-10 finish should secure him at least an invite to the Heisman ceremony.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Moore has been exceptional the last few seasons, but his success is now actually hurting him, as he never needs to be on the field in the fourth quarter. He’s a very good player, but his competition (or lack thereof) will hurt him along with his team. Still, not many teams would repeat the mistake of not recruiting him.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Like a cool autumn breeze, the new BCS rankings wash over us every season, blessing us with their clarity and insight. Unfortunately, that breeze is composed mainly of bizarrely complex math, regionally-biased writers, and senile old coaches who never watch a game. I think there's some dead puppies and broken dreams worked into the formula too. Year after year, the BCS never fails to disappoint the nation, rarely producing a consensus national title game (it's only happened three times in 12 years: Miami (FL) - Ohio State in 2002, USC - Texas in 2005 and Texas - Alabama in 2009). Working right a quarter of the time! That's the BCS way!

Nearly every year someone gets left out. In 1998, one-loss Florida State edged out fellow one-loss teams Ohio State, Kansas State and Arizona despite having the loss to the worst team. In 1999 it was Nebraska getting the shaft (while the Cornhuskers had a loss, undefeated Virginia Tech played a much easier schedule). 2000 saw Miami (FL) left out in favor of FSU, even though the teams had the same record and the Hurricanes beat the Seminoles in the regular season.

In 2001 it was Oregon, who missed the championship game for a Nebraska team who hadn't even won their own division. 2003 was the infamous USC debacle, when the Trojans were number one in both polls but third in the BCS and had to settle for a split title. In 2004 we had a complete, as Fantastic Mr. Fox would say, clustercuss, with five undefeated teams (USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah and Boise State).

In 2006 Boise State was the nation's only undefeated team but watched as Florida hammered Ohio State for the national title. 2007 was a crazy year in which Hawaii went unbeaten but no one thought they were worthy of playing for the championship, so one-loss Ohio State and two-loss LSU beat out two-loss USC in the BCS. Finally, there was 2008, when Oklahoma won the Big 12 South over Texas despite losing to the Longhorns and possessing the same record.

The incompetence of this system is mind-boggling, yet BCS supporters still stubbornly insist that the "controversy is good for the sport." This assertion has been ripped apart by intelligent analysts from coast to coast, so I have no need to even address it. I'll just examine the current rankings to see what's gotten messed up this time.

First, there's Oklahoma. I have no problem with Oregon not being number one, given the Ducks current schedule weakness. But why Oklahoma? Moreover, why does the BCS continue to have such a love affair with the Big 12? I cannot fathom how the Sooners' wins over Utah State, Air Force, Cincinnati and Iowa State make them deserving of the top computer ranking. But Missouri is also ranked way too high. Here are the six computer rankings for the Tigers: 2, 5, 5, 6, 9, unranked. Their schedule is one of the weakest in the country! This makes no sense!

How about LSU? Anyone who has watched them play would agree that the Tigers have major issues. But not so in the virtual world, where all that matters is wins and losses! LSU is second overall in the computer rankings, and first in two of them. They don't have a single decent offensive player!

There are other issues. TCU is fifth in the computer rankings, ahead of number seven Boise State. But Boise has actually played a harder schedule to this point. Stanford is ranked ahead of Oregon in one computer, even though the Cardinal lost to the Ducks by three touchdowns. Ken Massey must love Big 12 teams, as his formula has five of them in the top 15, including Texas and Kansas State ahead of Alabama.

In the interest of fairness, though, it is worth noting that the computers got one thing right - Arizona is ranked above Iowa.

As I write this post, the Pac-10 is concluding its press conference to announce how the new Pac-12 divisions will be split. The rumored North-South split has become a reality, with Cal and Stanford in the North and newcomers Utah and Colorado in the South. This model makes much less sense than the one I linked to a couple weeks ago and completely screws over the Northwest schools, but at least there will be equal revenue sharing.

What’s so baffling about the North-South split is how much was given to Colorado and Utah. It’s rumored that the Buffaloes demanded to be in the same division as the L.A. schools. What?! Why was Colorado allowed to make demands? They’re the newcomers. They should be grateful to even be in the new league, not deciding how to divide up teams who have played each other for decades!

But no matter. We all know the whole idea was to generate more revenue with a conference championship game, and that’s what we’ll get. It’s too bad it came at the expense of long-standing rivalries that had defined the conference.

Next week: the SEC race becomes clearer, the Pac-10 gets crazier, and Les Miles does something inexplicably stupid.