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National Overview

Who could have predicted the nation’s number one team losing would make things more confusing? Unfortunately, it did. The pundits are already trying to figure out exactly how Alabama can climb back into the championship game. The SEC West has been thrown into a complete muddle and the Big 12 schools have suddenly been awarded renewed respect for some reason. The voters seem to have already written off the mid-majors, as TCU has been jumped in the Coaches’ Poll and Utah fell in the AP, despite the fact that both teams won Saturday. Boise State regained its number three ranking, but only because the Crimson Tide went down.

I was honestly surprised to see the voters display as much guts as they did in dropping ‘Bama all the way to eighth. I thought that last year’s results and the notion of “the unbeatable Tide” might buoy Alabama to a higher ranking than they deserved. Instead, there was ‘Bama, sitting below most of the undefeateds, right where they belong. I have no problem with the Tide being higher than LSU, because no sane person who has seen the Tigers play this year would say they’re a top 10 team.

The issues, of course, arise when you try to qualify where other teams should be ranked in relation to Alabama. Why is South Carolina’s 4-1 record less impressive than the Tide’s 5-1 record when the Gamecocks just beat ‘Bama head-to-head? The same applies for Iowa and Arizona, who are both 4-1. The Wildcats beat the Hawkeyes, yet Iowa is ranked higher. Florida still sits at number 22 even though they haven’t beaten anyone of note, while Oregon State is 29^th in the Coaches’ Poll despite playing the toughest schedule in the nation to this point and coming out with the same number of losses as the Gators.

Trying to make sense of the various polls is maddening, but I do appreciate some of the voters’ tendencies. For one, moving a team over another because the first team beat the second is a decent, but imperfect, way to make rankings. In the case of Arizona-Iowa it works, as the two schools have played the same number of games and Arizona beat Iowa. Alabama-South Carolina is a little tougher, because the Tide have played one more game, a tougher schedule, and also already beat a currently ranked team. It was also obvious during last week’s contest that the Gamecocks played a near-perfect game and Alabama played poorly. That wasn’t the case earlier this year in Tucson, when the Wildcats were clearly better than the Hawkeyes.

Of course, that point might be moot if Arizona keeps playing like they did against Oregon State… but more on that later. Other teams that underachieved last week included Miami (FL), Michigan, USC, Northwestern, and Penn State. Les Miles also continued his baffling lucky streak (although that’s par for the course by now). I have no idea what’s wrong with the Hurricanes, but it seems that they, along with PSU, Texas, and Florida, were overrated to start the year.

Top 25

I had a hard time making all my choices this week. I had to go against my usual philosophy by jumping teams from outside the rankings to inside the top 20, and I had to move up teams who played badly and still won. I expound on my selections below.

1) Ohio State

After looking shaky against Illinois, the Buckeyes stepped up and swatted Indiana the way an elite team should. Terrelle Pryor has begun to improve, but anyone who thinks he’s a complete quarterback at this point is fooling him or herself. The OSU defense is solid, but each time I watch this team I’m struck by how average their backs and receivers are. They deserve the top spot for now, though.

2) Oregon

The Ducks almost did enough to drop back behind Boise State in their lethargic performance against WSU. I’m comfortable leaving Oregon here, and fortunately for the Ducks BSU won’t get any credit for beating San Jose State this weekend. This team has to do something about their slow starts or they’ll be in for a nasty upset at some point.

3) Boise State

The Broncos will likely be the top team when the initial BCS standings are released this Sunday, but that’s about it for the good news Boise will receive the rest of the season. Despite their decision to rank the Broncos third in the preseason polls, the voters have clearly already decided to punish the team for their schedule – even BSU hasn’t even played their easiest games yet. Boise needs a few more upsets like the Alabama one to get a sniff at the national title.

4) TCU

TCU has been under the radar for a while now, so you’d be forgiven for thinking the Horned Frogs had suffered a loss and you just missed it. The vibe around this team is weird; although they haven’t been seriously challenged since their opener, they just don’t feel like a great team. We’ll have to wait and see with TCU.

5) Nebraska

Yes, the Cornhuskers looked great against K-State. But it’s clear at this point that the Wildcats are average at best. And I’m sorry, but Nebraska is playing a glorified wide receiver at QB. When he can throw more than seven passes and carry the team that way, I’ll consider bumping these guys past TCU.

6) Utah

Sure, it was only Iowa State, but that blowout was better than the bye Oklahoma got. I doubt very much that the Utes are the nation’s sixth-best team, but why should the Sooners be rewarded for getting a week off? It’s that kind of thinking that makes the polls archaic and frustrating.

7) Stanford

Let’s be clear – Stanford is better than Utah. But given the Cardinal’s recent defensive struggles – and their blemished record – they don’t deserve that recognition yet. I was surprised how bad Stanford looked against USC. But Andrew Luck is absolutely the real deal. He’s the best QB in the country.

8) Oklahoma

I was already annoyed with the Sooners’ close wins over inferior teams, so I’m more than happy to move them down until they prove themselves a little more. The thing is, their upcoming schedule doesn’t offer them a lot of chances to do so. OU should be favored in every game from here on out.

9) Auburn

Ooh, that was close. Auburn played terrible in the second half at Kentucky, but managed to pull out a victory. Cam Newton is still putting up unreal stats, but I wonder if he’s getting a bit of a Denard Robinson-type boost against weak competition. In any case, the Tigers play Arkansas and LSU the next two weeks, so I doubt they stay undefeated for much longer.

10) South Carolina

Which is the real South Carolina team, the one that smashed Alabama or the one that lost to Auburn? I’d say they’re about midway between the two. If this is to be their year, though, the Gamecocks will need to take care of business in their division in the coming weeks. Otherwise, it will be just another wasted season for this program.

11) Alabama

Alabama is almost certainly better than number 11, but they just lost. I can’t in good conscience put them ahead of the South Carolina team that clobbered them last week. Later in the season, with more results to work with, that may change. For now, they can stew outside the top 10.

12) Arkansas

Arkansas lost to Alabama, who lost to South Carolina… you get the idea. That isn’t always the most advisable way to rank teams, but for those three it works right now because they all have one loss. But is Arkansas a fraud or for real? The defense looked suspect late against ‘Bama, and the team barely beat an average Texas A&M squad last week. We’ll get a good answer this week versus Auburn.

13) Michigan State

It’s possible that Sparty is just another mid-level Big 10 team who hasn’t faced a quality opponent yet (yes, that includes Wisconsin and Michigan). At the same time, they do have the feel of one of those storybook teams, complete with close finishes and wild headlines (head coach has heart attack, etc.).With no Ohio State on the schedule, Michigan State could be in for a special year.

14) Arizona

Ouch. Just when Wildcat fans thought their team had finally joined the nation’s top teams, they were brought back to earth by one of the Pac-10’s elite. That’s realistically what Oregon State is, so Arizona needn’t despair over the loss. At the same time, though, last week’s game had better serve as a wake-up call if ‘Zona is going to come anywhere near their first Rose Bowl.

15) Iowa

Iowa is still an unproven commodity two weeks into October. The Hawkeyes lost to the best team they played (Arizona) and won’t face another team with their overall talent level for a while. They’re definitely a Big 10 contender, but there’s been no indication to this point as to whether this squad is good, great, or elite.

16) Nevada

I feel, deep down, that Nevada will fall apart somewhere along the line. They’re not talented enough or deep enough to go 12-0 or play in a BCS bowl. But on a single-game basis, the Wolf Pack are very tough to stop, as Cal found out a few weeks ago. If these guys can avoid a bad performance here or there, they should win most of their games.

17) Oregon State

I know I said OSU is one of the Pac-10’s elite. But two things work against the Beavers, at least for now. First, although they played a tough schedule, they did lose twice. Second, while they hung on to beat Arizona, the Wildcats were clearly the team with more momentum at game’s end, which was a direct result of the Beavers’ devastating loss of James Rodgers. I’ll talk more about OSU in the Pac-10 section.

18) Florida State

The Oklahoma game is looking more and more like an aberration – for both schools. FSU has played much better in the last few weeks, and it appears that OU just had a really good day. Saturday’s obliteration of Miami (FL) was way more impressive than Ohio State’s victory over the same team earlier in the season, and for the Seminoles it served as a supplanting of the Hurricanes as the ACC’s top team.

19) LSU

I can give the Tigers a little credit for going to the Swamp and knocking off Florida, but as everyone saw, the Gators have fallen way off. Once again, LSU got the benefit of a questionable play call and sheer dumb luck to win a game – history has shown that teams who win this way are destined to get their comeuppance.

20) Air Force

I continue to have a love affair with the Falcons (it’s got to be that triple option), and they get one final tune-up before their clashes with TCU and Utah to end the month. I think Air Force can realistically go 1-1 in those contests, even though they’re clearly the inferior team talent-wise in both matchups.

21) Wisconsin

It’s the moment of truth for the Badgers. A tissue-soft nonconference slate didn’t exactly prepare them for their Big 10 opener, and they rebounded last week only because they got Minnesota. With the number one team in the country in town, Wisconsin has a chance to make believers out of everyone again – or they might just prove once and for all how overrated they are.

22) Oklahoma State

They’ve really played absolutely no one, but down here in the rankings the choices start to get a little meager. The Cowboys have managed to stay undefeated, though they’re probably in for a shootout this week versus Texas Tech. At some point, though, you have to expect this team to get pushed around by someone, whether it’s Nebraska in a couple of weeks or rival Oklahoma at season’s end.

23) Virginia Tech

How things change. Two weeks into the 2010 season Tech was a joke. Now the Hokies have rebounded, reasserted themselves as kings of the Coastal division, and gotten heaps of praise for sticking together through such a rough patch. If they don’t start readings their press clippings, Tech could make the kind of run they were predicted to make through the weak ACC.

24) North Carolina State

Despite their loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago I still have faith that the Wolfpack can be players in the conference race. It’ll take the best of Russell Wilson (and more than likely an upset of Florida State) but there’s no doubt in my mind that this team can pull it off. The end of the year is going to be crucial, as NCSU gets five consecutive conference opponents without a bye in sight.

25) Florida

I’m going to give the Gators one last chance. Unlike the situation with Texas – a school with similar talent and a disappointing record – we know that Florida is well-coached. Urban Meyer has made some of the most curious decision of his career this year, so it will be most interesting to see if he can adjust to not always fielding a team of all-stars.

Pac-10 Thoughts

The single biggest play of the Pac-10 season so far occurred in the Arizona-OSU game, when Wildcats’ safety Adam Hall contributed to Beaver receiver Rodgers’ blown knee. I don’t think it was a dirty play at all – Hall appeared to be attempting to break up the pass – but that’s not even very important anyway. What is important is where Oregon State goes from here.

OSU has made a habit of adapting unusually well to adversity in the past, but this is a somewhat different scenario. I specifically mentioned before the season that the Beavers had had mind-blowingly good luck with injuries in 2009, and that this kind of fortune tends to even out the next season. Well, there you go. Despite assurances within the program that the rest of the receivers will step up, there’s just no getting around the fact that Rodgers is the best receiver in the Pac-10 and one of the best in the nation. He is a perfect fit for the Beavers’ offense, and no one player (or combination of players) will scare defenses the way he did.

Had OSU not lost Rodgers, I would be prepared to put them first on the list of contenders to dethrone Oregon. Now, it’s a lot harder to make that call. The Beavers should still be a major player, and 6-3 or 7-2 in conference play sounds about right. But at some point, not having an elite playmaker at that position will cost the team. It’s a shame, though Rodgers will likely receive a redshirt year for medical hardship.

Oregon also suffered a scary injury in a less-than-inspiring win over Washington State. Fortunately, Kenjon Barner seems to be all right after the massive headshot that left him with a concussion, but it’s hard to say what his role will be the rest of the year. You never know how long it will take for a player to rebound mentally and physically. More on concussions later.

I was also surprised to see Cal handle UCLA so easily, although by now we should probably be used to the Bruins’ Jekyll-and-Hyde routine. Let’s see – loss to average Kansas State, shutout by Stanford, upset top-25 Houston and top-10 Texas, then a near-loss to a bad WSU team before the debacle at Cal. UCLA is going to have to up their game in the second half of the year – check out the murderer’s row they face: three straight ranked opponents, including at Oregon; back-to-back road games against Washington and ASU, then rival USC.

Stanford was also sluggish, and it appears the Cardinal defense was a little overhyped. I still consider them the biggest threat to beat out the Ducks (if they get some help from other teams), but they can’t win every game in a shootout. Remember what OSU’s Jacquizz Rodgers did to them last year? It wasn’t pretty. Having the best quarterback in the country on your side is a nice ace in the hole, but they can’t rely on Andrew Luck to beat everyone.

After watching ASU fight hard and lose to both Oregon schools and then take out their frustrations on Washington, it was clear to me that the Sun Devils are at least a player in the Pac-10 race. They don’t have a shot to win it, but they’ll make every team they play uncomfortable and probably get an upset or two (I’m looking at you, Arizona). ASU is much improved.

You know who else is improved? Oh yes. It’s Wazzu. The conference’s punching bag the past few seasons has gotten off the mat. I watched both of their last two games, and while they were clearly outclassed versus Oregon, they could have beaten UCLA. I almost called for it this summer, but didn’t have the guts; now I will: WSU will win a Pac-10 game this season. Jeff Tuel is a solid QB, they’ve got a nice running back in James Montgomery, and most importantly, the team is starting to believe. Just look at the way the Cougars are talking in the media. They no longer fear any of their opponents.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Kenjon Barner’s incident got me thinking about how head injuries are treated in football. One of my favorite writers, Gregg Easterbrook of ESPN.com, has written extensively in his columns about the horrible attitude that’s been taken toward head trauma in the sport of football. I completely agree and feel obliged to offer my thoughts on the subject.

Concussions have historically been treated very poorly in all sports, but especially in the tough-guy culture of the football world, where players are laughingly told to “shake off” the effects of “getting their bell rung.”

Shake it off? We’re talking possible brain damage here. If you want to know why so many old NFL players are suddenly dropping dead at age 50, look no further. The league has long taken a dismissive attitude toward head trauma in its sport, which trickles down to every level. Last year, Florida’s Tim Tebow returned to play just two weeks after sustaining this massive blow, despite most experts outside the sport opining that such an injury required no less than a month without contact for full recovery.

If the NFL won’t take the lead on this issue, then it has to be college staffs. That’s why I was so happy to see Mike Riley’s reaction after OSU’s Rodgers suffered a blow to the head (this one was dirty, by the way) against Boise State: he simply had the trainers take Rodgers’ helmet away from him. The message was clear: I value my player’s safety over winning. If coaches don’t take the lead like this, nothing in the sport will change.

In lighter news, I hate to give the impression that I’m “hating” on running QB’s. But there’s a legitimate reason for it. After so many years of watching this sport, you can start to tell when a signal-caller is really a playmaker – a la Vince Young, Pat White, and Dennis Dixon – or if he’s just a product of his system and team.

I’m leaving Denard Robinson out of this discussion for now, though his performance against Michigan State indicated that he’s got a lot of room for growth. His stats were clearly inflated by playing bad competition, but I think it’s fair to wait and see before judging Robinson too harshly. The same cannot be said of a few other players.

I’ve mentioned several times that I don’t see Terrelle Pryor as a complete QB. Why? Well, he can’t consistently mix accurate passes with his terrifying scrambling ability. Yes, he can get on a hot streak, but what Pryor does most consistently, game-to-game, is over- and under-throw receivers, despite fantastic pass protection. Pryor is almost never touched, yet his statistics are no more impressive than those of Oregon’s Darron Thomas. Now, I like Thomas, but he’s got a long way to go before he’s a complete player too.

Tyrod Taylor is another example, though readers will remember that I regularly save my most scathing criticism of the Tech QB. If you read my “Pryor analysis” (that’s a terrible joke, though unintentional), you’ll find that much of it also applies to Taylor. He runs around a lot and makes some plays, but he also hurts his team by trying to do too much himself and doesn’t read defenses as well as a senior QB should.

But despair no more, Taylor fans! I’ve found a new target of ridicule in the so-called “mobile QB” category. It’s Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez, he of the comically low seven passes attempted last week against Kansas State!

Now, every football fan knows that there are times when you simply don’t need to pass the ball. However, as an informed fan, you should know immediately that something is fishy when the alleged “star QB” of a team attempts just seven passes in a game. Not completes – attempts.

Compare this figure to Michigan’s Robinson. Even in his most dominant rushing efforts, he still threw the ball 15-20 times a game for a respectable completion percentage. In Oregon’s win over WSU, the Ducks passed the ball 30 times. 30! And they weren’t running up the score.

Against K-State, I saw Martinez do the same thing on almost every play: read-option fake, keep for big yards. The Nebraska players blocked well, it’s true. But Martinez was uncovered on almost every play, as each Cornhuskers found a man to block one-on-one to spring their QB into the secondary. What’s impressive about running past engaged defenders? The Wildcats never adjusted, which means play-action passes would have been deadly. The fact that Nebraska never even attempted this strategy is most damning evidence I can provide. It indicates that no one on the ‘Husker staff has any confidence that Martinez can make a defense pay with his arm. When he finally comes up against a defense that defends the run well (which could be a while the Big 12 North), he’s toast.

Short notes: a recent ESPN study concluded that shotgun-based offenses (Spread, Pistol, Run and Shoot) now comprise over 40 percent of FBS offenses. Tell me again that the shotgun is a gimmick… Maybe teams should stop giving Oregon’s Cliff Harris the ball – in 19 touches this season, Harris has recorded three punt return touchdowns and four interceptions, one for a score… As of this writing, former agent Josh Luchs had just revealed paying dozens of players while they were in school. This behavior goes on at (probably) every program, yet every time it’s revealed commentators act shocked. Maybe they should walk onto a college campus again - have you seen the cars these “amateur” athletes drive?…The Big East got back into the rankings this week after two humiliating weeks with no teams when West Virginia appeared at number 25. Let’s hope for the league’s sake the Mountaineers can hold off South Florida on Thursday night, or this could be the worst BCS conference we’ve ever seen…Congratulations to Terrance Cain of Utah, who last week became the last starting QB without an interception thrown this season... My initial Heisman rankings will come out next week.