Rivalry Midway Report

National Overview

Well, it's all come down to this week. Five of the six BCS conferences will decide their champion in the final week of the season, and we're being treated to some killer matchups. The sure-to-be-shootout featuring the explosive offenses of Georgia Tech and Clemson? Check. Alabama-Florida, part deux? Check. The Battle for the Big East? Check. The War for the Roses? Check. Even Texas-Nebraska has a chance (a chance, mind you) to get interesting if the Cornhuskers' defense shows up. Let us give thanks for this post-Thanksgiving bounty.

I'll admit that I preferred rivalry week back before the 21st century. Everyone played their biggest rival (with a few exceptions) on a single week. It was mayhem. Then the BCS and the NCAA's 12-game schedule screwed everything up by dividing the rivalry games over two weeks and tossing in the conference championship games, which are a sham. However, this year I actually like how everything worked out. The good games were split apart fairly evenly and we'll get a chance to see more teams play.

The biggest losers of the weekend were undoubtedly Georgia Tech and Clemson. While the Tigers and Yellow Jackets will still face each other in the ACC title game, their (and their conference's) respective reputations took a massive hit when they went down to middling SEC teams in Georgia and South Carolina. Now, these were rivalry games, and both ACC squads were probably looking ahead to this week's game, but there's still no excuse for this. The Bulldogs and Gamecocks are both 7-5 also-rans in the SEC, and they beat the two best ACC teams. Yikes. If the eventual ACC champ doesn't win their BCS bowl this year, the league is going to face a lot of questions about why it deserves an automatic bid. I'm sticking with the Ramblin' Wreck, but I sure didn't like what I saw out of either team last week.

TCU and Boise State definitely gained from the Georgia Tech loss, as the Yellow Jackets will no longer be considered for an at-large berth if they lose to Clemson. TCU, ranked fourth, has essentially clinched the mid-major BCS bowl bid, though BSU should still be in provided they win their thirteenth game this week. I'll discuss the BCS situation later.

Meanwhile, in the Big 12, Texas needed a near-flawless game from Colt McCoy to escape with a 49-39 win over rival Texas A&M. Although they won, the Longhorns have to be concerned about the sudden disappearance of their defense. Oklahoma also thankfully whacked Oklahoma State out of the BCS picture with an easy 27-0 win. Now we won't have to hear any more nonsense about how the Cowboys could go to a BCS bowl. Thanks, Sooners. The championship game this week will feature Texas against big underdog Nebraska, but crazy things have happened in the Big 12 title game before. The Horns had better be very careful, because Nebraska does have the ability to slow this contest down with their defense. In the end, you have to go with Texas because they're simply better, but it's not exactly a sure thing.

The titanic showdown of the weekend, of course, will be Florida versus Alabama, ranked first and second in the BCS. To the winner goes the BCS championship game invite, to the loser the Sugar Bowl awaits. Although 'Bama is a tough, physical team and Mark Ingram has been excellent this year, I just don't see how this game will be different from last season. Florida has exactly the same defense (it's a very good one) and has the offensive skill players the Tide lack. Last year Alabama couldn't throw the ball effectively, so what makes people believe they will be able to this time around? I think Florida wins again (more on this game later, though).

The Big East faces its dream scenario this week, when Cincinnati and Pittsburgh face off for the conference crown. The matchup did lose some of its luster when the Panthers fell to West Virginia last week, though the winner will still get the BCS bid. Not unlike the ACC, the league has been facing some tough questions about its credibility lately and could use a BCS win this year. I think the best team to represent the Big East would be Cincinnati... but I think Pittsburgh will win this game. Cincy's been hanging a lot of points on people, but the defense hasn't been exactly stellar. Pitt should be motivated after last week's last-second loss and I think they score this minor upset (it is at home, after all).

Then there's the Pac-10, which, for the first time ever will award its title to the winner of the Civil War, regardless of any other game. I will elaborate more on the War for the Roses later, but for now let it suffice to say this will be the biggest football game in the history of the state of Oregon. The Ducks and Beavers will battle it out at Autzen Stadium for the right to go to Pasadena on Thursday night, and these two evenly matched teams have the potential to create a showdown for the ages.

On the polls

I moved up some teams thanks to losses by other squads, but some schools didn't move up as much as they could have because their wins were so close. I also hopped Florida over 'Bama because the Tide should have lost to Auburn. West Virginia makes a reappearance after their upset of Pittsburgh, and I gave Iowa a spot in my rankings once again. Recall that these rankings reflect recent performance, not preseason expectations or hype.

1) Texas

Texas nearly slipped out of the top spot. I don't care if it was a rivalry, that Texas A&M game was way too close. McCoy and the offense have been hot of late, but the defense has some real question marks. And why can't the line protect McCoy better? For all the success, this team still has work to do before it's ready for a national championship. Nebraska will be a good test.

2) Florida

As I said, Florida nearly moved ahead of Texas. But you have to remember that the Gators' win was over Florida State. The previous week's win was over Florida International. Those teams have two things in common: their names and the fact that they're both bad. FSU has dropped off so much they actually fired Bobby Bowden. That tells you how much of a challenge the Seminoles were.

3) Alabama

The Tide were outgained and outplayed at Auburn but pulled out the win. The various nagging questions and problems that have been trailing Alabama all year have really intensified in the last few weeks. Aside from the victory over LSU last month, what has this team really done this season? Virginia Tech is good but not amazing, and the Tide's overall level of play has declined as the year has progressed.

4) TCU

I wanted to put TCU over Alabama but I just couldn't do it. You have to remember, Auburn may be bad, but New Mexico is far worse. The Horned Frogs shouldn't get rewarded for blowing out a 1-11 team. TCU has still been very dominant this season, though, and will receive a much-deserved BCS bid.

5) Cincinnati

When last we saw Cincinnati, they were scoring at will (but failing to stop) a terrible Illinois team. I feel like the Bearcats haven't really been challenged for a while, which could play into a slow start against Pitt this week. Can the defense turn it back on in time to clinch the Big East for the second straight year? It'll be a nasty battle, and the game is on the road.

6) Boise State

The last real obstacle to the Broncos' BCS hopes fell when Georgia Tech lost on Saturday. There's still the matter of those pesky Big Ten teams, but BSU is more deserving. After their not-too-surprising stampede of Nevada, I don't see how this team can get left out if they win this week. The extra win (Boise State plays thirteen games) should help their BCS rating too.

7) Oregon

Oregon got their bye at the right time, but now faces probably the toughest opponent of the season (yes, that includes Boise State and USC). The Ducks' defense has been surprisingly poor recently and they can't hope to simply outscore Oregon State. Who wins the 113th Civil War? It's close. It's very, very close. I think Oregon’s ability to contain the Rodgers brothers will dictate how this game will unfold. If they can at least slow them down, Sean Canfield will be forced to make plays on third-and-long, which is not his – or any quarterback’s – forte.

8) Ohio State

Ohio State has finished the regular season, so their ranking will be in limbo until after the Rose Bowl. The Big Ten champs went 10-2 and their best win was against either Iowa or Penn State... but you still have to give them credit for winning the conference again. It's going to be very interesting to see how the Buckeye coaching staff gets the team ready for the bowl game.

9) Oregon State

The Beavers have nearly completed their annual late-season push. All that remains is the Civil War against Oregon. It's tough to imagine Mike Riley not getting his players ready after last year's debacle. The deck is stacked against OSU, but they've proved in the past that they can handle difficult situations. Defensively, you can throw last year’s game out, because that was a once-in-a-lifetime exhibition by Oregon. Stopping the running game is crucial, though. OSU can’t afford to let this game turn into a shootout. The good news is that the Beavers are first in the conference in run defense.

10) Virginia Tech

Tech has had some fortune rising up the rankings while other teams have fallen. Their game against rival Virginia last week encapsulated their season. For a half, the Hokies played even with an inferior opponent, then flexed their muscles en route to a solid win. It's hard to figure this team out, but it's safe to say that they're not really elite.

11) BYU

The Cougars pulled out a wild one over rival Utah, bringing them to a 10-2 record and a probable repeat berth in the Vegas Bowl. While this team has finished just short the last two years in the Mountain West, they're still the model of consistency for any mid-major not named Boise State. Their bowl matchup with whichever Pac-10 team they draw should be very entertaining.

12) Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets took a hard fall on Saturday, going down to rival Georgia. I'm not entirely shocked by the outcome, but I'm definitely disappointed. The ACC looks really bad now, and it'll take a BCS win to regain any shreds of credibility. For its sake, and the Ramblin' Wreck's, I hope Georgia Tech beats Clemson this week.

13) USC

Another ranking due to attrition. The Trojans looked toothless against UCLA last week, which is perhaps the most disturbing thing about the way their season has gone. A Holiday Bowl berth is still within reach if USC beats Arizona, but the motivation and killer instinct this squad once showed have disappeared.

14) LSU

LSU doesn't really deserve to be ranked this high either, as the Tigers would have lost to Arkansas if not for some fortuitous breaks and questionable timekeeping. Nonetheless, the Bayou Bengals won, and will continue their march toward semi-greatness. The SEC has such great bowl tie-ins that even a mediocre team like LSU will be playing on New Year's Day.

15) Pittsburgh

Pitt got caught looking ahead to Cincy, there's no doubt about it. While West Virginia is a decent team, the Panthers are better. Problem is, they didn't play like it. Fortunately, Pittsburgh will get a chance to redeem themselves against the Bearcats this week. After the loss, I expect the home team to come out fired up, so I'll stick with my instinct of a looming Panthers upset.

16) Penn State

Penn State, like Ohio State, has already finished their regular season. Now they wait and pray that the BCS folks pick them instead of several other qualified teams. They don't deserve it, but don't be surprised to see this team in the Fiesta Bowl as an at-large school.

17) Miami (FL)

At least the ACC can handle the Big East! The 'Canes whipped South Florida 31-10 last weekend, proving where the balance of power in the Sunshine State lies. It's been a season of ifs and buts for Miami, which could have clinched the division if not for one loss (to either Clemson or North Carolina). The declining play of Jacory Harris is worrisome, but I still think this team is stacked for the future.

18) California

It's been impressive to watch the turnaround in Berkeley, where Cal can clinch no less than a tie for second place in the conference with a win versus Washington this week. Who would have thought that after the beatings administered by Oregon and USC? Jeff Tedford deserves credit for holding his team together.

19) Houston

After the obligatory blowout of Rice, the Cougars can finally start looking forward to the Conference USA title game against defending champion East Carolina. Teams with great offenses have been the only ones that can keep up with Houston, and I'm not sure that applies to ECU. In both of their losses this year, the Cougars have scored at least 30 points.

20) Stanford

After that thrilling win over Notre Dame last week, the question isn't any longer whether Toby Gerhart will get an invite to the Heisman Ceremony, it's whether he'll win it outright. At this point, the Cardinal have a decent idea of where they'll go in the postseason, so the win over the Irish was immaterial. It was still fun to watch, though.

21) Arizona

A week after blowing a shot at the Rose Bowl, the Wildcats almost collapsed again. Rival Arizona State should never have been in position to win that game, but as it was only a lucky muffed punt kept the Cats in range of the Holiday Bowl. 'Zona had better shape up in the next few days, because a certain former seven-time Pac-10 champion is waiting in L.A.

22) North Carolina

Well, I sure didn't see that loss to North Carolina State coming, but I guess that's why they play rivalry games. The Tar Heels have still have a successful season, but next year they might want to play all their games before patting themselves on the back. Like conference foe Miami, though, I think this team's future is bright.

23) West Virginia

West Virginia, where have you been all year? The last two games have been inspiring, and if the Mountaineers had just pulled out a win in that tight game with Cincinnati they'd be playing for the Big East championship this week against Rutgers. Alas, it wasn't meant to be. Rumor is that WVU might be headed to the Gator Bowl, regardless of the result of their last contest, because it would pit them against former coach Bobby Bowden in his last game at Florida State.

24) Clemson

Georgia Tech losing to Georgia was one thing, but this was ridiculous. South Carolina - a team that had shown zero offense all year - had no business running all over the Tigers. I'll keep Clemson ranked for now, but there's really no explanation for how the hottest team in the country came out so flat against their biggest rival.

25) Iowa

With all the losses around the country, at some point Iowa had to jump back into the top 25. No, I still don't think they're very good, but 10-2 with wins over Penn State and Arizona is tough to argue against. They had better not get a BCS invite, though.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The first and most important item of this week is the possible insanity that could erupt in the BCS. While you'll mostly hear that the national championship game will be played between Texas and the winner of Florida/Alabama, the truth is that a number of different scenarios could work out. One thing to assume here is that Boise State and Cincinnati both win their final game. Here's the first wild card:

What if Texas loses to Nebraska?

With the loss, the Longhorns would not only miss out on the national championship, they'd also grab an at-large BCS bid after the Cornhuskers won the Big 12. This is the nightmare for Boise State, Penn State and Iowa, who are all hoping for that invite.

Next, the SEC champion's opponent in the national title game would be either TCU, Cincinnati or Boise State. All three teams (if they finish undefeated), would have an equal argument for inclusion. However, none of those teams is a sexy (read: revenue-bringing) pick for the BCS championship, so it's possible, if unlikely, that another situation could arise, triggered by...

Alabama beating Florida

If the Gators, who are currently a comfortable number one in the BCS, were to lose, they could drop only to number two if Texas lost as well. Then Florida and Alabama would have a rematch in the national championship game. This is the doomsday scenario for college football.

In such a situation, undefeateds Boise State, TCU and Cincinnati would be furious they were passed over by a one-loss team. This is nothing new, in fact, it's what the BCS seems to thrive on. However, the consequences of an all-SEC rematch could be much more dire.

Last month, it was rumored - rumored, mind you - that Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney might threaten to secede from the BCS if Florida and Alabama played each other in the national championship game. I know at first this seems preposterous, given that the Big 10 has benefitted from the BCS more than any other conference.

However, Delaney would have a good argument: in 2006, top-ranked Ohio State beat second-ranked Michigan 42-39 in the season finale for both schools. When voters heard that the BCS might rematch the two in the national championship game, they immediately began ranking Michigan lower in their polls in order to lower the Wolverines' computer ranking. The rub? They were egged on by the SEC and Florida coach Urban Meyer, who openly campaigned for his one-loss team to jump Michigan and play the Buckeyes. The strategy worked, and the rest is history. Given how this situation worked out before, it would be outrageous for the loser of the SEC title game to backdoor their way into the BCS championship. So root for Texas this week, and pray that no SEC shenanigans go down under the table.

Speaking of the SEC championship (or as ESPN would call it, Tim Tebow's Showdown Of The Greatest Teams In The Country Featuring Tim Tebow, The Best Player Of All Time, Presented By Tim Tebow), I alluded before that I don't really see any intrigue with this game. And I don't. Last year the experts predicted a close, low-scoring game because of the powerful defenses of the two teams. The final score was 31-20 Florida, because the teams had accumulated their great defensive stats playing against some of the most anemic offenses in America in the SEC. Alabama couldn't throw when they had to, which cost them. This year, the teams are virtually the same, except instead of a fifth-year senior quarterback Alabama is trotting out a junior who had never started a game before this year. I'm looking for a similar result from last season: more points than everyone expects, with the Gators wearing down the Tide thanks to a semblance of a balanced offense.

As long as I'm on the subject of the SEC, I might as well add that had it not been for LSU's miraculous win over Arkansas on Saturday the league would only have two teams - division champs Alabama and Florida - over .500 in league play. LSU is 5-3, everyone else is 4-4 or worse. That's not parity, that's mediocrity.

Readers know that I have a love affair with Georgia Tech's flexbone offense. It's innovative, it's unconventional and it's very hard to stop given a week's time to prepare. However, as I noted earlier in the year, it can be stopped if the opponent spends a lot of time getting ready (and disciplined) to defend it, like when LSU held the Yellow Jackets to three points in their bowl game last year. I figured at least one team would do the same to Tech this season and it turned out to be Georgia. This isn't surprising at all; last year the Ramblin' Wreck dropped 45 points on the Bulldogs, which clearly rankled their rivals. Georgia obviously spent a good part of this season (and probably the offseason) with revenge on their minds, because they came into last week's game playing as well on defense as LSU did. Now if only Georgia hadn't spent so much time thinking about the Yellow Jackets, maybe they would have gone better than 7-5.

BYU quarterback Max Hall caught some flack this week for his post-game comments on rival Utah, when he said he "Hate[d] everything about them... their program, their fans." Hall also remarked that he thought the Utes were "classless" and that he didn't respect them. His comments stemmed from BYU's blowout loss last season in Salt Lake City, when his family reportedly had beer poured on them.

Some commentators have said that Hall's words were in themselves classless, but I'm completely all right with what he said. The best explanation I can offer for my reaction is that this is college football. You're supposed to hate your rival. Hall would have already held animosity toward Utah before his family was mistreated by their fans, and that incident would have taken his feelings to another level. I don't want to make some kind of social statement, but in the very politically correct society we live in it's nice to hear someone speak his mind. College sports are about emotion and college football is the most emotional sport there is. Hall isn't a bad person. He just hates Utah. What's so wrong about that?

In era-ending news, Bobby Bowden was forced out of his head coaching job at Florida State this week. Bowden is a legend, ranking second all-time in FBS wins after his 34 years at the school. During one incredible stretch, the Seminoles finished fourth or higher in the polls every year for fourteen straight seasons. It is truly a sad day for college football.

However, it is also important to realize that this change had to be made. Bowden is 80 years old. He could no longer run an offense or a defense or even game plan for an opponent (at least, successfully). The truth is that Florida State is now a shell of what they once were, and it's because Bowden stayed too long. He deserved a better send-off than this, but unfortunately it's a decision that had to be made if the school wanted to be competitive again.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

I'm back to narrowing down my list again after last week eliminated some guys and made it clear that others should be given more credit. Unless there's a monster performance by a fringe player this week, my list is unlikely to change again, but you never know.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller would have been out after his awful game against South Carolina, but the guy was sick, for goodness sake. He still felt well enough to run back his NCAA-record seventh kickoff for a touchdown. Has he filled the void left by Jahvid Best's injury? Yes. That's quite an accomplishment.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Video-game numbers, and he might get some votes if Houston wins the Conference USA, but there's just not quite enough there to give him the Heisman. He played just as well against Oklahoma State as Colt McCoy did, though. Give the man his due - he won't get it next year when the Cougars return to obscurity.

Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford

He punctuated his amazing year with 200 yards and three TD's (along with one passing) against Notre Dame. If Gerhart isn't in New York there ought to be a Congressional investigation. He's gone for 1,700 yards and 26 touchdowns in the nation's toughest conference. Pac-10 teams are going to rejoice when he leaves, more proof that he's Heisman material.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

As good as Gerhart was, McCoy was just as impressive against Texas A&M. No, he hasn't played a very hard schedule, but he's carried the team the whole season. He's ultra-efficient despite playing with a spotty running game and only an above-average line. I would be shocked to see anyone but McCoy win the Heisman if Texas makes the national championship game.

The Civil War

It's finally here. More than 100 years of games between the top two football teams in the state of Oregon, and there's never been a game of this magnitude. Oregon sits at 7-1 in conference play, Oregon State just one step behind at 6-2. The winner, for the first time ever, will be assured the Pac-10 championship and a berth in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. On the eve of the Civil War, the hype has reached a fever pitch.

The Civil War has a place among a very select group of rivalries, the kind only college football can muster. The game is Oregon's Super Bowl - no professional football team calls Oregon its home. There are exactly two schools in the state that field FBS football teams, a rarity in today's ever-expanding football world. It is the biggest sporting event of the year, every year.

It's difficult to describe the Oregon-Oregon State rivalry to someone not originally from the state. The feelings it evokes can be learned, but to a native Oregonian the emotions are almost always stronger. It is very much a "Civil" War; while many rivalries across the nation feature teams and fan bases that rankle each other all year, Oregon and Oregon State fans live in peaceful coexistence most of the time.

But the battle for state supremacy is not the only reason the game is so ingrained in Oregon culture. The contest is highly personal as well: many families seem to have at least one member that went to each school. It truly is a brother-against-brother affair. People are deeply passionate about their favored school, in large part because of how bad the two teams have been historically. Both were lovable underdogs for decades, popping up every ten years or so with a good season and then disappearing again for long stretches.

But those days are over. In the late 1980s Oregon began a long climb to respectability that culminated with their first Pac-10 championship - and Rose Bowl - in nearly 40 years. Oregon State followed suit, and by the turn of the millennium the teams were competing against each other for the conference title. After a few years of uncertainty and doubt, the Ducks and Beavers have roared back onto the national scene in the past few seasons. It is precisely this reason why the Civil War has come to mean so much more than it ever has. For all the years of losing, of frustration, of sad acceptance, Oregonians feel they have paid their dues. They feel they deserve a conference title, a Rose Bowl, a national championship.

Now the teams must face each other for the chance to represent the Pac-10 (and really, the entire West Coast) in the Rose Bowl, The Granddaddy of them All. It's been a wild and marvelous 114 years to this point (the first game was played in 1894). To the winner goes everything. Oregon and Oregon State are evenly matched to such an absurd degree that it would be insulting to predict a winner. This is a game where one play could decide it all. I don't know what's going to happen, no expert (despite what they tell you) knows what's going to happen and the players and coaches don't know what's going to happen. All I know is that the nation's eyes will be focused, for this one night, this one moment, on Eugene, where two of the country's finest football teams will play for the right to call the state and the conference their own. It couldn't happen to two more deserving schools, and the state of Oregon should be proud to call these Ducks and Beavers their own.

May the best team prevail. The roses await.