Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Regular Season Wrap-up

National Overview

Another season has come to a close. Another regular season, anyway, and that's what matters in college football. What a season it was. No, we didn't have a top-10 team going down every other week, but parity emerged in the sport like we haven't seen in a long time, perhaps ever. As is always the case in football, there were thrilling wins, dramatic plays and crushing defeats. I was drawn to this season more than any I can remember, though, and that's attributable to the high level of competition we were given across the board. Almost every conference race was tight: only two leagues saw their champion win out by more than a single game. How great is that? The guaranteed weekly drama made 2009 a year to remember. We saw the exit of some of the game's greatest all-time players (and one coach). There were scandals involving player conduct and another coaching carousel. I can't sum up the season with any conciseness, so I'll start with the conference championships that were decided this weekend.

Alabama won the SEC by flattening Florida in the title game. I was dead wrong about how this game would play out, and it's because the person I had absolutely zero faith in - Tide QB Greg McElroy - played out of his mind. No one, including myself, saw him as the difference maker in this game, but give him all the credit. It turns out the alleged "progress" the Gators made on offense in their last two games was due to their playing Florida State and Florida International. The Tide made that victory look stunningly easy.

Fortunately, every other conference championship game (official or not) was an absolute barn-burner. Last week epitomized what I love about college football. First, on Thursday night, we had the all-time greatest Civil War game that ended in a 37-33 Oregon win to send the Ducks to the Rose Bowl. I was very surprised how well Beavers OB Sean Canfield handled the berserk Autzen crowd in this game - in fact, it earned him All-Pac-10 honors. Oregon State looked sharp in the first half, but ultimately couldn't keep up with the high-powered Oregon offense through four quarters. The hidden factor that killed OSU was their inefficiency in pressure situations. All year they were clutch in the red zone and on third down, but in the Civil War Oregon forced them into field goals four times. With touchdowns on those drives, Oregon State is probably in the Rose Bowl instead.

Next there was the unbelievable comeback Saturday morning that kept Cincinnati's undefeated season alive. Down 31-10 in the second quarter, the Bearcats never panicked, and rode that attitude and some Pittsburgh miscues to an incredible 45-44 win. I was very impressed by Pitt in the first half in this game, when the Panthers ground out drive after drive and then killed Cincy on some play-fakes over the top. However, in the second half the team was clearly playing scared that they would blow the big lead. Because of this tentativeness, they did. On the other sideline, the fact that Cincinnati never blinked after going down three scores, on the road, in the snow is remarkable. They snatched the Big East title right out from under Pitt.

Then there were the nightcaps. Oh, the nightcaps. What more could you possibly have asked for from Georgia Tech-Clemson and Texas-Nebraska? In the ACC title game the Yellow Jackets and Tigers went completely wild, scoring back and forth in completely different ways. Clemson, led by C.J. Spiller in the performance of his career, ran the ball with an authority they hadn't shown all season. In contrast, the Ramblin' Wreck stuck to their M.O. - running it down the defense's throat and then throwing at the opportune moment. It was yet another offensive spectacle worthy of a championship game.

At the exact same time, though, Texas and Nebraska were slugging it out in one of the ugliest games all season. The Texas offense couldn't move the ball because of the outstanding Blackshirt defense, while Nebraska couldn't get anything going largely because its offense is one of the worst in country. I said before the game that the Cornhusker's D had a chance to make this game close, and that's exactly what happened. Never underestimate the power of a lights-out defensive unit - there's a reason people say that defense wins championships. If not for an extremely fortuitous end to the game for the Longhorns, Nebraska would have lived this maxim.

It was another banner year for mid-majors, as TCU, BYU, Utah, Boise State, Houston, Central Michigan and East Carolina all threw their hats into the BCS ring. I'm not sure how the powers that be can keep ignoring the success of these non-BCS schools; eventually the fact that a mid-major (or two) is going undefeated every season has to be recognized as a sign that it is time for a playoff. There's nothing to lose from it, as truly unworthy teams would be weeded out early, while the best squads would rise to the top. The problem, of course, is money. The massive payouts to the schools in the BCS bowls and the insane amount of revenue those games bring in speak too loudly for the dissidents' voices to be heard. Yet. Here's hoping that either TCU or Boise State demolishes the other and forces a split national title. That would put the BCS folks in a conundrum, no?

On the polls

My regular season-ending rankings take into account the entire season, with an emphasis on recent performance. Some schools have been finished for a week or two and I'll try not to penalize them, but the truth is that teams that play -and win - deserve to be recognized.

1) Alabama

Wow. Just like that, 'Bama solidified themselves as the unquestioned number one team in football. The Tide didn't just beat Florida, they toyed with them. Powerful running and defense got this team to the SEC title game, great passing got them to Pasadena. I'll write more in my bowl preview, but right now I don't anticipate this team having any trouble with Texas.

2) TCU

As seen by my ranking, I think TCU should be in the title game. If the voters were honest with themselves, they'd have docked Texas for "winning" last week. The most consistent, dominant football team in the state this year resided in Fort Worth, not Austin. The Horned Frogs beat near-ACC champion Clemson on the road and did the same to BYU. Throw in the fact that the Big 12 was way down this season, and TCU deserves to be playing for the national title.

3) Texas

Whoo, that was lucky. Texas avoided one of the biggest sports gaffes of all time by a millimeter, and now moves on to play Alabama in Pasadena. However, any objective observer could tell you that the Horns looked nothing like an elite team Saturday, or for most of the season, for that matter. All of this team's big wins came against teams that were later exposed as frauds. Right now, it looks like Texas is going to get their doors blown off by the surging Tide.

4) Cincinnati

Another recipient of some seemingly divine intervention, Cincinnati finished the season 12-0 and got rewarded with... a date with the defending champs. Because they finished third in the BCS, the Bearcats would have been in the national championship if only Texas had lost. Instead they'll have to deal with an angry Florida team without Brian Kelly, who is leaving for Notre Dame. That's not a recipe for success.

5) Boise State

I'm not rewarding BSU for blowing out New Mexico State. Florida deserved to drop behind the Broncos after their loss, considering Boise State is undefeated. That being said, I don't know how many teams I'd actually pick this team to beat right now. The problem is that it's been so long since they've been tested no one really knows how good they are. Good enough to beat TCU? Probably. Good enough to beat Alabama? I doubt it.

6) Florida

The Alabama loss was pretty stunning, not only in the final score but in the way the Gators just got dominated. However, they only have one loss, so it only seems fair to rank them ahead of the two-loss teams. The offensive problems Florida had starting around midseason lingered, and ultimately proved to be their undoing in the SEC championship. I would still bet on a rebound to end the season, though.

7) Oregon

I would have moved Oregon ahead of Florida, but the Ducks beat Oregon State close, not in a blowout. The Rose Bowl matchup with Ohio State already appears to be one of the best bowls, so we'll see if this team can finish what they started and show the nation what they're all about. It's been a pretty impressive journey to this point.

8) Ohio State

You got some time off, Buckeyes. Hope you enjoyed it, because now you get to stop the hottest offense in the country. Long layoffs until the bowl season have hurt Ohio State in the past; can they turn things around this season. In pregame comparisons, the first round goes to Oregon, who beat the two teams OSU lost to.

9) Georgia Tech

It certainly wasn't easy, but the Ramblin' Wreck earned their way into an Orange Bowl bid. I couldn't be happier, and neither should the Yellow Jackets when they realize that they're playing Iowa. Let's see - Big Ten defense tries to stop unconventional, motion-heavy misdirection offense. How has that turned out the last few years?

10) Virginia Tech

I have to admit, I'm a bit baffled myself as to how the Hokies are ranked this high, in my rankings or in the polls. I suppose they haven't lost... then again, they haven't played anyone either. Shame on you for being such an enigma, Va. Tech! For that you remain in the tenth spot. Show me something in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

11) BYU

BYU has been pretty hot all season except for the meltdowns against TCU and Florida State. I've been pretty impressed by the Cougars thus far, but I don't think they know what they're getting into against Oregon State in the Vegas Bowl. They needed overtime to beat Utah, which is one warning sign. Another is the fact that BYU hasn't played a bad game for a while and is set up for a fall.

12) LSU

LSU hasn't beat a single good team this year. They've proved over the course of twelve games that they were vastly overrated. So why the high ranking? Well, there was a reason for all that preseason hype - LSU is one of the most talented teams in America. This usually comes out in bowl games, when they get time to prepare for their opponent. Odds are good that the Tigers go out with a bang again this year.

13) Penn State

Speaking of LSU, how about the Tigers' opponent in the Citrus Bowl? Penn State had a remarkably similar season in 2009, coming in with huge expectations and falling far short of their goals. The Nittany Lions desperately need this game to validate themselves to the country.

14) Oregon State

The Beavers came up short again in the Civil War, but there's no reason for them to hang their heads. The only embarrassing thing is the Pac-10's bowl tie-ins, which sent the second-best team in the conference to the fifth-best bowl. Oregon State can clinch their fourth straight nine-win season with a victory over BYU, an impressive achievement.

15) Miami (FL)

The end of the Hurricanes' season had to feel a little empty after their hot start, but 9-3 is totally respectable given Miami's schedule and the questions the team had at the beginning of the year. 'Canes fans don't want to hear it, but it's the future that's important for the team and the program. It's probably safe to say that Miami is back.

16) Arizona

They hit a mid-season bump in the road, but 'Zona came out smelling like roses. Well, almost like roses. A second-place finish in the nation's deepest league is something to be very proud of considering where the Wildcats were when Mike Stoops took over. Arizona has the potential to be a player in the Pac-10 for years to come.

17) Stanford

People expected a turnaround under Jim Harbaugh, but nobody saw this season's 8-4 mark coming. Stanford beat Oregon and USC and nearly made the Holiday Bowl. If the Cardinal can keep Harbaugh around, they just might be able to regularly compete despite their disadvantages in recruiting. It's rare that a coach can instill an attitude in a team so quickly.

18) North Carolina

The season ended on a sour note with a loss to North Carolina State, but I think the Tar Heels have followed a path not unlike Stanford's. Butch Davis has reinvigorated the North Carolina program exactly like Harbaugh. With the rise of the Tar Heels and Hurricanes, the ACC should be back on the road to respectability.

19) Pittsburgh

Oh, Pittsburgh. The Panthers made my prediction of a Cincinnati upset look brilliant for about 25 minutes last week, building up a 21-point lead before blowing it at the end. It was a heartbreaking defeat, but Pitt is still a very good team and should be the preseason Big East favorite next year with the return of RB Dion Lewis.

20) USC

USC's stunning fall from grace is inexplicable. With the coaching staff and unbelievable amount of talent the Trojans have amassed, there's simply no excuse for 8-4. Ever. It's fair to wonder if the team will even show up for their Emerald Bowl matchup with Boston College.

21) Nebraska

The Cornhuskers did lose (barely) to Texas, but they've become a top-25 team because of their defense. It's amazing to see a offensive powerhouse get completely shut down like Texas was against Nebraska. Now if Bo Pelini could only get his offense to pull their weight, the Huskers could complete their return to national prominence.

22) West Virginia

Rather like Arizona, West Virginia overcame their mid-season slump to finish second in their conference. Even though they'll be playing Florida State in the Gator Bowl, there's reason to keep watching this team. They've been the model of consistency in a conference that has lacked it in recent years. Noel Devine could also be playing his last game for the Mountaineers.

23) Iowa

A top-10 team in ranking, perhaps, but not in reality. Iowa doesn't deserve a BCS berth; regardless of whether they win, they didn't earn the right to be there in the first place. However, now that they've been given the opportunity, they could do the Big 10 a big favor by beating Georgia Tech.

24) Clemson

I just couldn't move the Tigers down after their great effort in the ACC title game. Most opponents would have folded from the clinic C.J. Spiller put on, but Georgia Tech just kept coming. In the end, Clemson came within minutes of going to the Orange Bowl in Dabo Swinney's first season, so I think they'll be fine for the future.

25) Central Michigan

I've been enamored with QB Dan LeFevour's game for a while, but it was a total team effort that won the Chippewas a MAC championship this season, their third in four years. Going 10-2, including a victory at Michigan State, is a pretty nice year for a mid-major. No, they can't measure up to TCU or Boise State, but that's why they're not in a BCS bowl.

Random Thoughts and Observations

If anyone ever laughed at the idea of special teams being important, they didn't have to look any further than last weekend's games for proof. Three different conference championships were decided by kickers. Houston would have been down by just three late in their game against ECU, but the Cougars missed two extra points and had another blocked. ECU escaped with a six-point win. Pittsburgh's missed extra point directly lost them the Big East title, and Texas only won the Big 12 thanks to a kickoff out-of-bounds (that set the Longhorns up at the 40) and a long clutch field goal as time expired.

I usually wouldn't say anything, but I thought a specific part of the SEC championship game was too important to be ignored. Specifically, it was Tim Tebow crying at the end, when it became clear that Alabama was going to win. I can certainly understand the sentiment, and every sports commentator that talked about it did too, saying that Tebow was a "warrior" and a "gamer." I found this very interesting, because I distinctly remember Gonzaga basketball player Adam Morrison getting chided - and even openly mocked - by sportswriters for crying when his team lost to UCLA in the NCAA tournament a few years back. So apparently it's acceptable to laugh at a guy for crying if he's a goofy-looking player from a lower-level school, but not if he's the media's golden boy at a national powerhouse.

A few commentators have opined that the Boise State-TCU pairing will produce a "great" game. I'm with the majority in believing it's a total joke. The only good result from letting mid-majors into the BCS is seeing them prove themselves against big schools that are supposed to be superior to them. Pitting two of them against each other just plays into the BCS's evil, money-grubbing hands. It allows skeptics to say "TCU/Boise State only beat TCU/Boise State, so they're really not very good." It allows the sham of a non-playoff system to continue. And most sinister of all, it ensures that only one of the teams will finish undefeated. Which brings me to my next point.

If five teams finished the regular season undefeated, what would be the best strategy to minimize controversy? First, you could match the "top" two teams in the "championship game" and call the winner the national champ. But that wouldn't prevent a split championship, like in 2003 when LSU won the BCS but USC won the AP title. To prevent that, you could put the two mid-majors in the same game, doing maximum damage to their credibility. To finish things off, you could match the defending champs against the other undefeated squad whose coach was on verge of leaving, almost guaranteeing a loss. I'm not saying there's a BCS conspiracy. I'm just saying.

I also had to get in a final word on the Civil War, which was one of the best games I've ever seen and undoubtedly the best game ever in the Oregon-Oregon State series. It's rare that such a game lives up to the massive hype preceding it, which is what made the contest so special. Atmospheres like the one last Thursday are what make college football the sport it is. Fans of both schools can look forward to many more battles for Pac-10 supremacy between the rising Oregon teams.

Heisman Presentation

I thought it would take a huge performance from a player to change my mind on the Heisman standings. Well, how about three? One guy played himself out of legitimate Heisman consideration (or he should have) while everyone else came up with monster games. This made it much harder to choose a winner than I was anticipating, but in the end there was only one choice.

Runners-up

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller's ACC title game performance was divine. I don't care if it was against Georgia Tech's middling defense, 233 yards and four touchdowns is ridiculous. Spiller was the only player in the country to score a touchdown in every game this season and he set the NCAA's all-time record for kickoff return touchdowns. The only reason I have him fourth is because he was a little inconsistent.

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

The show Ingram put on against Florida - 100 yards and three touchdowns on the ground and nearly 100 yards through the air - was impressive. He's the best player on the nation's number one team, which is often a formula that adds up to "Heisman." However, like Spiller, Ingram was inconsistent this year, so he really shouldn't win the award.

Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford

Lead the nation in rushing and rushing touchdowns. He also did so against tougher competition than Spiller and Ingram (look it up) and faced every defense in his conference, which they did not. He's a bull of a back and the primary reason Stanford was so successful. In normal years, he would have won the Heisman.

My Heisman Winner

Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

I went away from Suh late in the season because I figured Nebraska's poor record would keep him from the ultimate prize. Then the Cornhuskers nearly jumped into a BCS game by knocking out Texas. There's one reason: Suh. There's no other way a team with an offense as bad as Nebraska's could win more than three or four games. He made everyone around him better, as seen by the career-best numbers some of his defensive mates put up. He also led the team in tackles with 82 (a ridiculous achievement for a defensive lineman), and posted twelve sacks, blocked three kicks and snagged an interception. To cap it all off, Suh recorded twelve tackles and four and a half sacks of alleged Heisman candidate Colt McCoy in the Big 12 title game. If the Heisman trophy is to go to the most outstanding player in the country, it should go to Suh.

Thus ends my final regular season blog. I'll post a bowl preview next week, then a season wrap-up after everything has been decided.

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