What was life like before the ultraconference?

There were some good upsets this weekend despite the void of interesting matchups, but overall I still found last Saturday to be lacking in real drama. Really? Michigan isn’t that good and lost to the first decent team they played? Shocking news. Virginia knocking off Georgia Tech was surprising given how bad the Cavaliers have been recently, though their clock-killing final drive was impressive.

Other than that not much fun was had. The back-to-back kickoff returns for touchdowns in the Oklahoma State-Texas game provided an exciting moment in a contest that largely consisted of Texas staving off the inevitable (although give the Longhorns credit for hanging around). Oklahoma let Kansas do the same for WAY longer than the Jayhawks had any right to, whereas Stanford came out of halftime against Washington State and put the hammer down.

Oregon-Arizona State was a pretty good game for a half, but early in the third quarter it became apparent that the Ducks were going to pull their patented second-half landslide move. Considering that Oregon played without LaMichael James and lost QB Darron Thomas, the final score was pretty impressive. However, ASU showed in that game that they might only be the fourth-best team in the conference, so both Washington and Stanford should prove to be bigger tests for UO.

Coming up this week there aren’t a lot of matchup that blow me away on paper, but the schedule is certainly better than it has been lately. Oklahoma State on the road at Missouri has potential, as does fellow early timeslot game North Carolina-Clemson. After losing to Miami (FL), a team I thought they should beat, the Tar Heels will probably be out to prove themselves against the Tigers. Speaking of Tigers, Auburn plays at LSU, though I’m not optimistic about the visiting team’s chances in that one.

In the evening the schedule really gets going, with the annual USC-Notre Dame game, Texas Tech and Oklahoma (a good test for the Sooners’ defense) and a pair of primetime top-25 matchups. Wisconsin plays at Michigan State (I think the Spartans will get killed, but you never know) and resurgent Washington plays at Stanford in a game that suddenly has huge Pac-12 implications. Stanford seems like the better pick at home… but the Huskies have been pretty good this year. I’m not sure. More on that game later. To the top 25!

Top 25

1) Alabama

Nothing that happened this weekend did anything to change my opinion of the Crimson Tide. They played a bad Ole Miss team and whaled on them. Though the lion’s share of the media attention has been on LSU’s defense, I still think Alabama’s unit is the best in the country. It’ll be fascinating to see the two on the same field in November. I’m not expecting a whole lot of points. At least, not from the offenses.

2) LSU

Tennessee isn’t an impressive win by any standard, but LSU moved up because Oklahoma failed to put Kansas away early. After ‘Bama this is undoubtedly the best defense in the nation. What has been – and continues to be – surprising about the Tigers is their QB play. Jarrett Lee has been consistent and turnover-free, the two things that he could never seem to be in past seasons. Playing with a good running game and elite defense helps, but Lee has still been a pleasant surprise.

3) Oklahoma

It’s hard to fault a team for winning by 30, but Kansas is terrible and OU was only up by 13 early in the fourth quarter before tacking on some meaningless touchdowns. The score was 27-17 at halftime. I can’t reward the Sooners for that kind of effort. It doesn’t make much of a difference because they still control their own destiny, but this team does tend to go flat at times. I know I wouldn’t pick them to beat either LSU or Alabama at this point.

4) Boise State

Boise State chalked up another predictable blowout win against weak competition as they entered Mountain West play. The Broncos’ schedule is just pitiful from here on out, but they did get a nice break when South Carolina lost star running back Marcus Lattimore for the year. This dramatically improves Georgia’s chances to win the SEC East, which Boise will need to garner any late-season respect.

5) Wisconsin

I don’t want to talk about Russell Wilson as a Heisman Candidate because I think he stepped into a remarkably beneficial situation with the Badgers. However, that doesn’t mean that he isn’t quite good, or that Wisconsin’s offense isn’t just as physically intimidating – if not more so – than in 2010. My only reservation is regarding how that line might perform against a great defense. Wisconsin hasn’t played anyone yet who comes close to elite.

6) Oklahoma State

I love the Cowboys’ offense and would like to pull the trigger on jumping them ahead of Wisconsin. But we’ve seen this kind of OSU team in the past, and they generally struggle when they play good defenses or are forced to actually play good defense themselves. This year seems pretty much the same to me. The defense is still average and could easily cost the team a game. The good news is that Oklahoma is the only opponent OSU has who can bring that killer combination of offense and defense.

7) Stanford

In the first half against Wazzu Stanford looked pretty overrated. Then the second half began and Andrew Luck set out to remind everyone why the Cardinal are in the top 10. That was a good showing. At the same time, though, this week seemed to reinforce what I – and now some national commentators – have recognized: Stanford just isn’t that good. The offense can be great at times, but it’s nowhere near as explosive as it needs to be for the Cardinal to cover their defensive deficiencies.

8) Oregon

Oregon has played two opponents better than anyone Stanford has faced, but because the Cardinal are undefeated I won’t disrespect them by moving the Ducks ahead. That second half against the Sun Devils was pretty nice, though. The issue now seems to be health – with LaMichael James and Darron Thomas in the lineup, I think Oregon can easily beat both Washington and Stanford. The backups played well Saturday, but without their starters the Ducks won’t win the North.

9) Clemson

Wow. That was the “Clemson” game everyone was waiting for. That game when a highly touted Tigers team flops against a middling opponent and loses, dragging the season into ruin. But this time, somehow, Clemson managed to come back. Getting into a shootout with Maryland isn’t something to be particularly proud of, but the bottom line is that the Tigers are still undefeated. Now they have to avoid doing the same thing again.

10) Arkansas

After getting through a rough stretch the Razorbacks got a much-needed bye. Now they begin preparing for LSU. It sounds crazy, given that Arkansas doesn’t play the Tigers until the regular-season finale, but there’s truly not another team left on the schedule that should be able to beat this team. Ole Miss? Vandy? South Carolina, sans Lattimore? Don’t make me laugh. Barring a massive setback, the Hogs will be 10-1 when they face LSU.

11) Texas A&M

A&M is a lot better than the voters seem to think. This is where people need to look past the record (which at 4-2 isn’t even that bad) to focus on who the Aggies have played and how they lost. If not for a couple of very close losses this team would be in the top five. Last Saturday’s big win over Baylor proved that A&M isn’t going to just go away. They’ve got a couple weeks to get ready for Oklahoma, who they beat last year. There’s no reason they can’t do it again.

12) West Virginia

The Mountaineers had a week off and reaped the benefits of having teams ahead of them lose. Now comes the hard part – oh, wait. This is the Big East. There is no hard part. As long as WVU takes care of business, I don’t see any reason why they don’t win out. They’ve got the best offense and QB in the conference, and in this league that’s literally all you need.

13) Nebraska

Nebraska had the same good bye-week fortune West Virginia did. This week the Cornhuskers get Minnesota, so chalk that one up in the win column. From there, the schedule gets a little tricky. Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State and Michigan isn’t exactly a murderer’s row, but it’s not a stretch when you want to be playing less than your best ball, either. I’m guessing the division title will come down to that Michigan State game.

14) Michigan State

So it turns out Michigan wasn’t any good. Again. Sparty put the Wolverines in their place for the fourth straight season (ouch) and in the process alerted the rest of the Big 10 to watch out. The next two games against Wisconsin and Nebraska will probably decide the season for MSU, so it’s a good thing they built some confidence this week. Question is, will they be feeling so happy after they face the Badgers?

15) Kansas State

This is, in all likelihood, far too high for this team. The record is sterling at 6-0, but have you seen the wins? 10-7 over Eastern Kentucky. 28-24 over Miami (FL). 36-35 over Baylor. What I’m saying is that the Wildcats are lucky to be unbeaten. This is the Michigan State of 2011 – decent and plucky, but with little real talent. At some point, one of the Big 12’s elite is going to drop 50 on them.

16) Houston

The Cougars were lucky to have the week off, because without teams ahead of them losing I wouldn’t have been able to move them up in good conscience. Houston now faces a Boise State-esque conundrum: how can we prove that we’re good against the competition we play? The answer is to throw it. Don’t stop until Case Keenum holds every last NCAA passing record. Come on, Cougars, don’t let me down.

17) Arizona State

For about 20 minutes of game time against Oregon, Arizona State looked great. The offense was tossing the ball all over the place, the defense was stuffing the run… and then the Ducks decided to remind the Sun Devils why they’ve won the past two conference titles. The loss was disheartening, but not damaging, as it’s still almost guaranteed ASU wins the South. They will need to make some changes if they face Oregon again, though.

18) Washington

Yet another team who got a well-timed bye. I hope the Huskies used it well, because the get to go to Stanford this week. I know that UW still hasn’t beaten anyone of note, but I do think they’re improved. The question is, how much? Just a normal improvement after last year’s promising campaign, or a real jump? Stanford will provide the answer. It’s entirely possible that Washington is about to get a huge reality check. The extra week couldn’t have hurt, though.

19) Notre Dame

I’m taking a leap on this because I haven’t seen Notre Dame play in two weeks. But the truth is that the Fighting Irish should be 7-0, not 5-2, and they’ve put up some nice offensive numbers recently. With the USC defense a question mark and the offense inconsistent, I feel fairly confident that Notre Dame will beat the Trojans this week. I hope the BCS bowl talk doesn’t start, because they don’t deserve it. But this is a pretty good team.

20) Virginia Tech

Tech should be able to rest this week given that they’re playing Boston College. The schedule the rest of the way includes teams that could all possibly present problems for the Hokies but probably won’t be too difficult to handle. Georgia Tech is the exception, but I don’t love the Ramblin’ Wreck as much as I did after their loss to Virginia. I think Virginia Tech has a solid shot to get to 10 wins, if not 11.

21) Georgia Tech

The loss to Virginia was disappointing, but even more troublesome was the play of QB Tevin Washington. It’s not easy to run the option and Tech has had their share of QB problems in the past, but two of eight passing with two picks? Ugh. Fortunately, most teams won’t be able to defend the Yellow Jackets as well as the Cavaliers did, but that game still raises questions about how the Ramblin’ Wreck will do the rest of the season.

22) Auburn

Auburn’s back again! At least, until they drop out after losing this week, right? It’s likely, because they’re playing at LSU. I’ve finally seen QB Barrett Trotter prove that he’s not that good (it took longer than expected), but what does a loss to LSU really mean? Nearly every team in the country would do the same. I’m looking for Auburn to show something this week that would give me a reason to keep them ranked with a loss.

23) South Carolina

I dropped the Gamecocks because it’s very likely they’re about to fall apart. In consecutive weeks South Carolina has lost their starting QB (dismissed) and starting RB (knee injury). I have no idea how they can hold it together and still win the East. If Steve Spurrier still has any of his old coaching acumen – which he honestly hasn’t shown a lot of in Columbia – he might be able to cobble together a division title. But I really doubt it.

24) Illinois

I expected to see Illinois drop a game a few weeks ago, then when the Illini got to 6-0 I felt good about them. Serves me right for trusting such an unproven team, I suppose. It all goes back to Arizona State, because I wouldn’t have had nearly the amount of respect I did for Illinois if ASU had just taken care of business. I finally moved the Sun Devils ahead of the Illini because, let’s face it, Oregon is a way better loss than Ohio State. And Illinois is going to lose again, unlike ASU.

25) Baylor

I had to drop Baylor for losing, but I also don’t think it’s fair to punish them too harshly for losing to a good Texas A&M team. The Bears are still a quality team; the problem is just – as I feared – that they don’t have the same kind of across-the-board talent as the other teams in the Big 12. The remainder of the schedule isn’t easy, though I still see Baylor picking up seven or eight wins. In this year’s Big 12, that’s an accomplishment.

Pac-12 Thoughts

ASU is the only Pac-12 school not playing this week and now we’re getting into the meat of the conference schedule. UCLA and Arizona kick things off on Thursday night in a game that’s actually more meaningful than it appears at first glance. Did you know UCLA is only one game behind division leader ASU in the South? With a win, the Bruins would move up to a tie for first with the idle Sun Devils. For Arizona, it’s a chance to start the post-Stoops era off right at home.

Oregon and Colorado play the only weekend league game before primetime (12:30 PST), which should be a walk in the park for the Ducks. The poor Buffaloes have now lost their best player (RB Rodney Stewart) for significant time and their leading tackler (LB Douglas Rippy) for the season. The only intrigue for this game is whether Oregon will sit their entire first-string backfield with the hope of getting healthy.

Utah and Cal play in this week’s version of the Desperation Bowl. Both teams are 3-3 but 0-3 in conference play and badly need a win. Utah’s road win last week over Pittsburgh was a major gut-check for the Utes, so getting their first Pac-12 victory this week could really build some momentum for them. Cal is a disaster right now, looking completely unfit for league play. With an 0-4 conference start, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear about a hot seat under Jeff Tedford.

The USC-Notre Dame rivalry is always a nice game to watch, but it has held little national relevance in the past few seasons. This year I think the Irish are a better team, so it would help boost the Pac-12’s sagging reputation if the Trojans could get a win in South Bend. SC did look very good against Cal last week, which is a good sign, though it’s also possible that the Bears are just terrible.

The best game of the week by far is Washington at Stanford, where the young but talented Huskies will really get a chance to prove how far they’ve come. When I look at Washington’s wins the team doesn’t look very impressive. It could be that the reason UW has looked so good on offense has been a lack of good competition. But Stanford’s schedule has been even weaker. I would categorize four of the six teams the Cardinal have beaten as bad-to-terrible. The only marginally respectable wins are Arizona and Washington State.

Washington’s defense has been pretty bad at times this year, so you’d think Stanford could take advantage of that. But Stanford has also been listless offensively at times. See: 16 points in the first half against Arizona. 17 at halftime against UCLA. 10 against WSU. By comparison, Oregon had 35 at halftime against the Wildcats. I’m not saying that the Huskies have a shot because they’re better than everyone thinks – near the bottom of the top 25 is about right. They have a shot because Stanford isn’t as good as everyone thinks. I’m still picking Stanford at home because I see the Cardinal as a deeper team, but UW should make this a good game.

The nightcap is Oregon State and Wazzu in Seattle, a game that I actually really wish was televised. This series has gotten interesting with the two teams apparently headed in opposite directions (although the Cougars’ last two games would tell you otherwise). Oregon State is still smarting from giving WSU their only Pac-12 win last season and is frustrated at coming up short last week against BYU. The Cougs are really angry after playing awful second halves against Stanford and UCLA and probably have a lot of confidence against the Beavers, having beaten them last year. Both teams are 1-2 in conference play and want to keep ahead of Cal in the North division cellar.

Heisman* Watch

*Luck

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

The Bears lost, but Griffin has already tied his own school record for touchdown passes in a season through just six games. Unreal. His efficiency has dipped ever-so-slightly, but come on. He’s still completing 14 of every 18 passes and has thrown a mere two interceptions against 22 touchdowns.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Anything less than a stellar effort would have led me to drop Moore from the list temporarily. So naturally, he went 26-for-30 with four TD’s and no picks. His efficiency is creeping closer to Griffin’s, though the difficulty of their opponents is rapidly traveling in the opposite direction.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The initial BCS rankings came out on Sunday and were thoroughly boring. There was little to differentiate the computers from the polls except for the computers giving a little extra love to Oklahoma State. Yes, Texas was ranked and probably shouldn’t be, while Arkansas over Oregon was a little surprising, but those things weren’t exactly scandalous. As many analysts have explained by now, several of the top teams play each other, so it’s impossible for there to be more than a few undefeateds. Yawn.

I was delighted to see that Texas gave Texas A&M the coldest of shoulders regarding their annual (and very long-running) rivalry series when the Aggies tried to set up a yearly nonconference showdown with the Longhorns. After whining, complaining and even trying to evoke popular sympathy through a “patriotic defense,” it was astounding that Texas A&M had the gall to ask Texas for a continuous series.

If you don’t know, Texas replied that it wasn’t possible because their nonleague schedules were filled until 2018, which is of course a filthy lie. Schools do love to schedule nonconference games years in advance, but the truth is that future matchups are ever-changing. Conference realignment, teams chickening out of hard games (looking at you, SEC) and even the prospect of a better payoff can affect a school’s schedule. Just look at the last two season-opening Cowboys Classics: Oregon-LSU and Oregon State-TCU weren’t settled until less than a year before those games were actually played. If teams want to play each other, they can find a way. Texas doesn’t want – or need – you, A&M. Now enjoy the SEC.

There were some more realignment rumblings this week, though nothing concrete has materialized… except for the big one. BYU-to the Big 12 continues to be a hot topic, which would be funny after the Cougars made such a big deal about going independent but isn’t a bad fit football-wise. Temple is rumored to be a candidate for the Big East (crawling back to Temple, eh boys? The Owls don’t look so bad now that you’ve lost half your conference, hmm?). Missouri, whom everyone in the Big 12 must just loathe at this point, has yet again pledged undying love to the SEC, if only the SEC will have them. This is after the Tigers previously begged to be let into the Big 10, so I think everyone takes Mizzou only half-seriously nowadays. Still, the SEC will eventually get at least 14 teams, and Missouri is probably the best option out there.

The “big one” I was referring to was the amazing and not-at-all ridiculous merger between the Mountain West and Conference USA. I absolutely love this move because it’s just so off-the-charts crazy. Hey, ACC! You thought you’d steal the spotlight by jumping to 14 teams? Try 22! That’s where the proposed superconference would sit once the MWC increases to 10 schools next season. Although I’m not sure “superconference” is even the right term for this, because we’ve been using it to refer to 16-team leagues. This is a good deal more, so… ultraconference? Until someone comes up with something better, that’s what I’m sticking with. What will be even more interesting is what the 22-team behemoth will be named. I’ll have to think on that.

I had fun giving a little history lesson last week, so I thought I’d have another go at it. This week’s lesson came about because of my own curiosity and the continuing national unease over how well superconferences will function if we get to that point. To preface, however:

Last year when the Pac-10 nearly became the Pac-16, there were questions about how a league of such size would work. The 8-team split was easy: the old Pac-8 on one side, the Arizona schools and former Big 12 teams on the other. However, to ensure schedule balance, many people thought the conference could create four four-team “pods.” Teams would play each team in their own pod and two of the four teams from the other three pods on a rotating basis. This was logical because it would mean no school would go more than two years without playing every other team in the league.

Well, there’s a reason the “pod” system was popular: it had been used before. I always knew the Mountain West was a very young league that had formed out of the dissatisfied members of the older WAC, but I was fuzzy on the details. I looked it up, and here’s what happened

In the nineties, with the Southwest conference crumbling and other schools looking to move up to D-1A (now FBS) status, the WAC ballooned to 16 members – the first superconference. The members of this league were, to put it lightly, a bit scattered. Geographically, the WAC ranged from Hawai’i in the West to Texas and Oklahoma in the East. The conference arranged its schools into four-team quadrants or pods within larger divisions, with the division winners facing each other in the conference championship game.

To rotate opponents, however, the WAC made two of the pods “locked” with the other two free. Hawai’i, San Jose State, San Diego State and Fresno State (Pod I) would always play in the Pacific division. Tulsa, TCU, SMU and Rice (Pod IV) would always play in the Mountain division. The two other quadrants – UNLV, Air Force, Colorado State and Wyoming (Pod II) and BYU, Utah, New Mexico and UTEP (Pod III) – would switch divisions every two years.

The system was complicated, but rather ingenious. Back when playing only seven conference games was normal, these quadrants did a good job of ensuring that no school would go too long without playing most of the others. Since the Pac-10 took the step of moving to nine conference games in 2006, though, such a system would be less effective. It’s also hard to evaluate the WAC because the pods only lasted three years before half of the conference took off to form the Mountain West. Travel costs, understandably, were part of the problem. But in general I think the WAC’s solution to a superconference was admirable.

So who should conferences of the future emulate? The ACC will soon play with 14 teams, which has also been done before (the MAC had 14 members from 2002-2005, and will again starting next season). 14 teams isn’t too hard to figure out: two divisions, six divisional games, and either two or three cross-division games, depending on whether the league wants to man up. 16 is a whole lot harder. The old rotating WAC model would work as long as the conference played nine league games, because teams would once again only go as long as two years without playing each team. But the proposed Pac-16’s system made sense, too.

In the end, I’d prefer to stay with the traditional smaller conferences. But as the MountConf Westerence USA ultraconference has proved, we’re way past that point now. 22-team leagues for everyone! Why stop there? Let’s go to 30! Full steam ahead, I say! See you next week.