Thanksgiving week: Time to feel the hate

First of all, let me say, “I told you so.” No good games last weekend, indeed! When was the last time the second, fourth, fifth and seventh-ranked teams all lost in one weekend? I accept your apology, ESPN and CBS. Now, about that national championship picture…

We’ve reached that unappealing place where there is no other option but to (likely) match up a pair of teams in the BCS title game who are not only from the same conference, but who have already played this season. It’s a nightmarish scenario that makes zero sense from a logical standpoint within the BCS system, but after the potential Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC champions all played themselves out of the picture, there’s nobody left. The Big 10 already reached that point earlier in the year, nobody takes the Big East seriously and Boise State blew their shot.

Really, that’s one of the bigger stories of this season: the Broncos finally would have gotten their shot if only they’d beaten TCU. In terms of what that might have meant for the BCS, this season fell short of greatness. The argument about whether a mid-major making it to the championship would be good or bad for the BCS is interesting. On one hand, it’s possible that BCS-conference teams would be furious at a non-automatic qualifier school getting the nod because of the weak schedule. On the other hand, there’s the thought that Boise State in the title game would vindicate the system, a sort of, “See? We told you, anyone can make it, so it’s fair!”

Personally, I’d have loved seeing BSU beat a traditional powerhouse because I think it would send a shock to the system. Anything that gets us closer to a playoff is good in my mind. It’s also important to note that I would have no qualms about an Alabama-LSU rematch if it came about through a playoff. Many champions in team sports don’t win their division or conference. Look at FCS football, which holds a 20-team playoff (including play-in round) composed of 10 conference champions and 10 at-large schools. There’s a 50 percent chance the eventual champ won’t have even won their own conference, but it doesn’t matter, because they’ll have played their way there. That isn’t the case with the BCS, where luck plays as much a part as on-field success.

Now, it’s possible that Alabama could beat Auburn, Arkansas could beat LSU and the top of the SEC West would be tied with three teams at 7-1. Here’s what I have to say about Arkansas’ chances this weekend: 3, 4, 5. In four (yes, FOUR) road games, that’s the Razorbacks’ margin of victory in three wins this season (they were also blown out at Alabama). The opponents in those games? 5-6 Vanderbilt, 6-5 Texas A&M and 2-9 Ole Miss, respectively. Saturday’s game against LSU? In Baton Rouge. Prepare for a whipping.

Top 25

1) LSU

Seriously, how are we even having this discussion any more? LSU is 11-0, they’ve taken on a difficult schedule (two ranked nonconference foes) and the Tigers have beaten 10 FBS teams with a combined 61-48 record. For comparison, Alabama’s nine wins are 51-48 (padded by 10-1 Arkansas and 9-2 Penn State), while Arkansas’ nine wins are 41-55. The chain of mediocrity and overratedness stops with LSU. This team is really, really good.

2) Alabama

I do respect Alabama’s defense, but I have legitimate questions about the teams the Crimson Tide played to get that gaudy 8.4-points-per-game average. Look at these numbers: of the FBS teams ‘Bama has played, Arkansas (18^th) is the only offense ranked in the top 70; the rest of the opponents are a stunning 71, 87, 89, 92, 97, 100, 101, 114 and 119. Remember, there are only 120 FBS teams.

3) Oklahoma State

Should OSU drop lower? Yes, but several other teams lost. I put Oklahoma State at third for now because there are several things that work in their favor. First, Ames is a hard place to play. Second, the Cowboys lost in double-overtime, which isn’t exactly shameful. And most importantly, there is no way I would pick Arkansas over this team.

4) Arkansas

Arkansas is usually my favorite SEC team, so I take no joy in saying this. But the truth is that the Razorbacks aren’t good. I don’t mean they’re “not elite, just decent,” I mean they’re a seven-win team masquerading as a title contender. Arkansas’ best win was over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks had already lost Stephen Garcia and Marcus Lattimore. After that, the only decent win was over Auburn, who is fortunate to have a winning record.

5) Oregon

The Ducks should have dropped to about ninth or so, but they were the beneficiaries of the Oklahoma and Clemson losses. I would have even moved UO down past Stanford, but then I remembered that, unlike the voters, I’m not a complete moron. Just two weeks ago, the college football world established that A) Standford hadn’t played anyone and B) Oregon was way, way better. Now, because the Ducks are 9-2 to the Cardinal’s clearly far superior 10-1, we’re supposed to forget that? What?

6) Stanford

I think the best way to describe Stanford is to say that they’re good in certain situations. If the opposition doesn’t have a good defense or fast skill players on offense, the Cardinal can roll. Outside of those parameters, though, this is a very beatable team. I love their hard-nosed mentality, their commitment to a complex offensive scheme and their willingness to break people down bit by bit for four quarters. I really don’t love their athletes.

7) Oklahoma

Who knew that losing Broyles and Whaley would actually have a greater impact on the defense? I was all set to pick OU in the Bedlam game after Oklahoma State went down Friday night (another fantastic mid-week thriller, by the way) and then the Sooners went and dropped one to Baylor. Now, I love me some RG3, but the Bears have no business beating Oklahoma. Ever.

8) Boise State

It’s going to be interesting to see what the program does after Kellen Moore leaves. Certainly it will be far more interesting than the next two weeks, when the Broncos face Wyoming and New Mexico. I don’t see a second massive upset this season for BSU, so we’ll probably be looking at an 11-1 non-conference champion Boise squad stuck in some awful bowl while a couple of 7-5 AQ teams play on New Year’s Day. Isn’t the BCS grand?

9) USC

In the fourth quarter against Oregon, the Trojans looked like the same cowed former conquerors they’d been for two years. For the first two and a half quarters, they looked like the team that won or shared every Pac-10 title from 2002 to 2008. While it’s premature to declare them “back” – especially with continuing scholarship reductions – there’s no doubt that last week’s win was the best pick-me-up SC could have asked for.

10) Virginia Tech

You may have noticed that I didn’t move VT at all despite four losses ahead of them. That’s because I have very little faith in this team. The win over Georgia Tech was nice, but until they beat Clemson in a rematch I still can’t consider a team out of a league this average to be anything more than decent.

11) Houston

Give the Cougars credit for tossing 37 on SMU; the Mustangs’ defense is pretty good this season. Still, Houston isn’t going to move up unless they do something really impressive. Blowing out Tulsa would win me over some more, but that will be a tall order against an offense that’s every bit as potent as Houston’s own.

12) Michigan State

I can’t really work out the Big 10 this year. Every time it seems as if we know a team’s identity, they surprise us (in both good and bad ways). While the record isn’t as good, I think this season’s MSU team is probably better at this point than last year’s squad. The Spartans have taken advantage of Michigan’s down period to build up their roster nicely and it’s paying off.

13) Kansas State

K-State is another team who really deserved to move down after a lackluster win over Texas. The Wildcats are 2011’s scrappy team. We get one every year; a team who’s not really great but hangs around and wins games they shouldn’t. Staring at a 10-2 finish, KSU should be proud of what they’ve done this year. Only losing to the Oklahoma schools is impressive.

14) Georgia

Oh, Georgia. You’ve beaten just two teams with winning records (and barely that, at 7-4 and 6-5), lost to the two best teams you played, and missed all three of the West’s good teams. Honestly, I’m not even sure the Bulldogs will beat rival Georgia Tech on Saturday. The game is in Atlanta and the option has caused trouble for this team in the past.

15) Wisconsin

The Badgers were very fortunate to beat Illinois. However, they got it done and now face Penn State for the right to play Michigan State again. Earlier in the season I would have considered it laughable that PSU would even have a chance in this game, but the way Wisconsin has played the past month it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Consistency has been such an issue for this team of late.

16) TCU

Nothing changed my opinion of TCU from last week to this week, but seeing fading South Carolina barely put away Florida on Saturday convinced me that the Horned Frogs could beat the Gamecocks. It’s funny how, after a tumultuous start to the season and questions about their future home, TCU has found both a prestigious conference to play in and several young players to build around. Questions answered.

17) Clemson

I know Clemson thought they had nothing to play for… but then came Saturday night. What a horrible feeling this team must have had, knowing that they could have been an inch from the BCS championship had they just come out motivated against North Carolina State. The Wolfpack played well, but I’ll never believe the Tigers just didn’t care about the outcome.

18) South Carolina

As the somewhat close victory over The Citadel showed, South Carolina is just worn down. Toothless offensively without their two best players and beat up from a season’s worth of games, the Gamecocks were mercifully knocked out of the East race when Georgia beat Kentucky. Playing Clemson isn’t exactly the kind of season-ending matchup this team needed, but it’s better than having to face LSU.

19) Michigan

Wow, where did that come from? Michigan’s track record this year never indicated that the Wolverines would be capable of a beatdown like the one they delivered to Nebraska. Though they played a coward’s schedule (eight home, four away, copyright SEC), the fact is Big Blue is one Ohio State victory from a potential BCS at-large bid. I’d be stunned if this team got one, but you can’t discount the draw of Michigan.

20) Baylor

Welcome back, Baylor! Early in the season the Bears flashed potential, but after multiple losses and a couple of shaky wins the last two weeks I’d written them off. Lesson learned: don’t bet against RG3. Baylor did need some luck to knock off Oklahoma (did you SEE this play?!), but the way the Sooners have played this year you can’t just say this was a fluke.

21) Nebraska

Just when you thought Nebraska had things figured out… hard to pinpoint the most disappointing part of that four-touchdown shellacking the Cornhuskers got from Michigan, but high on the list would be the defense. I thought Bo Pelini coached this team? You expect hot-and-cold play from Taylor Martinez, not the Blackshirts. Nebraska has to face the reality that they’ve lost two of three and could have gone down to Penn State as well.

22) Tulsa

I said months ago that Tulsa was going to be good. Here we are at the end of the season, and the Golden Hurricane have ripped off seven straight. They’re undefeated in league play and host 11-0 Houston this week with the West title on the line. I have to say, I think Tulsa gets it done. They’ve played a tougher schedule than the Cougars and should be ready.

23) Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets have become the quintessential “good bad team.” In their last five games, the Ramblin’ Wreck lost close to Virginia (enjoying a renaissance under Mike London), lost to Miami (FL), upset then-undefeated Clemson, lost to Virginia Tech and narrowly beat Duke. In short, eh? I wouldn’t be surprised if Tech upsets Georgia this week, nor would I be surprised if they got blown out. It’s been that kind of a year.

24) Northern Illinois

Another close escape for NIU, who have turned shootout victories into an art this season. Though the MAC isn’t exactly tough competition, the Huskies have done everything in their power this season to get ranked. As I mentioned last week, the offense is extraordinary, and I’m very interested to see who this team draws in their bowl.

25) Notre Dame

Even with the win over Boston College I nearly dropped Notre Dame from my poll. BC is really bad and should have been an easy out for the Irish, who have won eight games but played it close with the better teams on their schedule. ND does have the weapons to give Stanford some trouble this week, but I’d still be surprised if they pulled off an upset this big.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Oh, Arizona State. What in the world is wrong with you? You had the South in hand a month ago and now you need major help to get in. The Sun Devils are on the opposite track of Utah, who after losing their first four Pac-12 games has won four straight. Key in those wins was a victory over current division leader UCLA (USC being ineligible). That means there are three teams who can still win the South going into the regular season’s final week. From a competitive standpoint, this is exactly what the conference wanted. From a realistic standpoint, with the best team ineligible, it’s a nightmare.

As Utah, ASU and UCLA have all played each other, we’re left with a very interesting mess. Utah beat (blew out, actually) UCLA, UCLA squeaked by ASU, and ASU crushed Utah. Right now the Utes and Sun Devils are both 4-4, while the Bruins are 5-3. However, UCLA also has by far the toughest opponent this Saturday in a road game at USC. Arizona State plays Cal and Utah plays Colorado, both at home, both on Friday. The following is what needs to happen for each team to clinch the South:

Utah: beat Colorado, ASU and UCLA both lose.

ASU: beat Cal, UCLA loses, Utah result irrelevant (Sun Devils hold tiebreaker).

UCLA: beat USC and clinch automatically, lose to USC and Utah and ASU both lose.

Although UCLA’s route is the most clear-cut, it’s the most difficult. I find it hard to believe this UCLA squad can beat USC, which means the Bruins will be 5-4 in conference play come Saturday. It seems safe to assume Utah will beat Colorado, which would move the Utes to 5-4 as well and eliminate UCLA. That means it all comes down to ASU, who would win the division with a win or hand it to Utah with a loss. I don’t know which Sun Devils team will show up Friday, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Thankfully, the North is much simpler. If Oregon wins the Civil War the Ducks win the North. If they lose, Stanford wins it (either North winner will host the championship). Though Oregon State showed some great character in beating back Washington last week, I’d be pretty shocked if the Beavers won this game. That means the inaugural conference title game will probably be Utah/ASU at Oregon. A month ago I would have said the Sun Devils had the South in the bag, but now I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on that Cal game. It would be pretty amazing if Utah came back from the dead (an 0-4 conference start) to win the division.

Heisman Watch

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Griffin is back to lead the non-Andrew Luck category. All he did last week was pass for a school-record 479 yards and four TD’s and lead the Bears in rushing with 72 yards on the ground.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Let us be thankful for rivalries, which continue this week after the nice appetizer we got last Saturday (once again, I believe it was me who predicted that there would be some great games on tap). In terms of pure hatred, though, this week’s slate far surpasses its predecessor. There will be entire generations’ worth of pent-up rage released, starting on Thanksgiving, when Texas and Texas A&M play what will be their final game in the foreseeable future. That one’s gonna be delightful. But it only gets better from there.

The Battle for the Golden Boot (Arkansas-LSU). The Backyard Brawl (West Virginia-Pitt). Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate (Georgia-Georgia Tech). The Iron Bowl (Alabama-Auburn). The Commonwealth Cup (Virginia-Virginia Tech). The Civil War (Oregon-Oregon State). The Border War (Missouri-Kansas). The Egg Bowl (Ole Miss- Mississippi State). The Apple Cup (Washington-Washington State). The Battle for L.A. (UCLA-USC).

That’s before you get to all the rivalries without official names, some of which rank among college football’s most heated, such as Ohio State-Michigan, Florida-Florida State, Clemson-South Carolina, Colorado State-Air Force and Boston College-Miami (FL). And hey, the renewed Colorado-Utah series starts up again this week with a new name: Rumble in the Rockies. What more could you possibly ask for? This, my friends, will be a weekend to remember.