And here we sit... at the end of it all

On to the conference championships we go. There wasn’t quite the same level of excitement this Saturday as there was the previous week, when four top-ten teams fell, but we did get some answers about which teams are legitimate heavyweights heading into the postseason.

Clemson? Out. The no-show at North Carolina State was one thing, the blowout against crippled rival South Carolina was another entirely. Unacceptable. Arkansas? Also gone after ending the LSU game on the wrong side of a 41-3 run. The Hogs had no business in the top five.

Houston, though, showed what they were made of in a runaway victory at Tulsa. That was impressive, as was Virginia Tech’s 38-0 humiliation of rival Virginia. Another ACC title looks to be in order for the Hokies.

Eliminated from BCS contention were Notre Dame (hanging on to slim hopes before getting manhandled by Stanford) and probably Michigan. The Wolverines technically still have a shot, but they absolutely don’t deserve one. For some reason ESPN and the school have been touting UM as a possible BCS team for a couple of weeks, which is utterly laughable if you take five seconds to look at their schedule and see that they beat one team in their conference with a winning record.

The new BCS standings also feature a twist in Stanford’s number four ranking. If it holds through next week, this would make the Cardinal an automatic-qualifying team, just like last season. That would be a big blow to Michigan. Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State would also be killer, because the Big 12 would then be assured two spots like the Pac-12.

The BCS bowls are going to be a little strange this season because in all likelihood both of the SEC’s teams will be in the same game. That will alter the traditional matchups (except the Rose Bowl) and could leave room for a team like Michigan, Baylor or Kansas State to sneak in. This weekend will complete the story.

Top 25

1) LSU

Georgia is ranked 14^th and all, so… no one cares. I doubt anyone outside of Athens thinks it’s remotely possible LSU loses this game. After a slow start against Arkansas last week, the Tigers calmly cut their 12^th consecutive opponent down to size. They’ll do the same to the Bulldogs in the SEC championship.

2) Alabama

I’m not happy about it but this is the way it has to go. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this week, I’ll vouch for the Cowboys to leapfrog the Crimson Tide. That’s the only way Alabama doesn’t get their precious rematch. They don’t deserve it, but they’re going to get it anyway because…

3) Oklahoma State

OSU will lose to Oklahoma. I still have the Pokes third here because they should move into the title game with a Bedlam win. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. More on that game in my conference championship discussion. OSU is quite good, but I’m not confident they can take that last step.

4) Oregon

The Ducks disposed of Oregon State in their usual fashion, then got the good fortune of a date with UCLA. I don’t want to jinx it, but let’s be real: a loss in the Pac-12 championship at home to a coach-less, .500 Bruins team would be the most embarrassing failure in school history. There’s a reason Oregon is a 30-point favorite.

5) Stanford

That was a nice win over Notre Dame. The 14-point margin didn’t tell the whole story, as Andrew Luck went off and the Cardinal brutally pounded the Fighting Irish into submission. Now this team has to hope and pray that they can retain that coveted fourth spot in the BCS.

6) Oklahoma

Survived the Iowa State test (hey, OSU couldn’t do it) to set up a Bedlam Game for the ages. This is the first time in several years that I consider the two teams to be on a level playing field and the game is in Stillwater. To make matters worse, OU will be without all-world receiver Ryan Boyles and young running back Dominique Whaley.

7) USC

At this point in the season my rankings start to value recent performance over the full-year resume. That’s good for USC, who looked dreadful early on but found their stride in the last month, culminating in a season-ending stomping of rival UCLA. 50-0? Are you kidding? If Matt Barkley stays… well, he won’t. But if he does…

8) Boise State

Wyoming’s not bad this year (see 7-4 record, third in the Mountain West), but Boise’s 36-14 win over the Cowboys was still somewhat uninspiring. While the Broncos’ defense has been outstanding – other than a couple of deep balls against TCU – the fact remains that Kellen Moore and Co. just haven’t been quite the world-beaters we’re used to seeing.

9) Virginia Tech

The 38-0 pantsing of rival Virginia was the best performance of the year by the Hokies. I’ve been reluctant to believe in this team all season, but I’m starting to feel very good about their chances in the ACC championship. A BCS bowl win is perhaps asking too much, though this week will be a good indication of where VT will finish.

10) Arkansas

There’s no plausible reason for Arkansas to stay near the top five of the polls. Supporters will cry that both the Razorbacks’ losses came to the two best teams, the correct rebuttal to which is, “Yes, and they were blown out in both games.” This team has “good” losses. What they don’t have is good wins. If they’d played Georgia they would have lost to the Bulldogs too.

11) Houston

I like Houston, but I can only honestly rank them ahead of teams who don’t have the ability to stop them. You need a good offense-defense combo to beat the Cougars; enough offense to keep up and enough defense to keep them off the field. I think every team in my top 10 could do that.

12) Michigan State

Big game for the Spartans, who haven’t been to the Rose Bowl in more than 20 years. MSU has been on a pretty nice roll in November, stifling opponents with solid defense and putting up touchdowns at steady pace. I have my doubts about this team beating Wisconsin a second time, so we’ll see who’s made better adjustments come Saturday night.

13) Wisconsin

Wisconsin has been both very hot and very cold this year. At times they’ve looked like champions, such as when hammered Nebraska in October and blasted Penn State last week. They’ve also looked frighteningly pedestrian at times, though, losing to 6-6 Ohio State and needing some horrendous officiating to survive Illinois. The former team will win the Big 10 title game easily, while the latter will bow out quietly.

14) Georgia

You can give UGA some credit for beating Georgia Tech, but as I said last week, the Yellow Jackets are so erratic you never know what you’ll get from them. Now it’s on to the conference championship, where the Bulldogs will run into the LSU buzzsaw. Quarterback Aaron Murray is pretty good, but he’ll need to be better than good for Georgia to have a chance this Saturday.

15) Kansas State

Considering that Kansas State lacks the kind of talent of teams above them on this list, the fact that the Wildcats are going for their tenth win against Iowa State this week is amazing. I still don’t think K-State is more than an above-average team who caught some breaks and I don’t like their chances in their bowl, but you can really appreciate the fight this team has shown this year.

16) South Carolina

Back-to-back 10-win seasons aren’t too shabby considering the mayhem this program has had to put up with this year. Young Connor Shaw looked like the answer at QB against Clemson. Marcus Lattimore will be back next season as well, so the Gamecocks, who just weeks ago looked lost, now seem to have a solid foundation in place for 2012.

17) Baylor

The Bears can’t play a lick of defense, but boy are they fun to watch. Robert Griffin is reportedly feeling no concussion symptoms before the Texas game, which will pit perhaps the nation’s most exciting player against the Big 12’s best (statistically, anyway) defense. If Baylor can get this thing into a shootout, they should be home free.

18) TCU

The season-ending matchup with 2-9 UNLV is kind of a downer, but I’m sure TCU isn’t upset at having already locked up the MWC. With their position as mid-major royalty firmly established, the Horned Frogs will now look to the future and the (finally) welcoming arms of the Big 12. If they build off of the second half of 2011 they could be contenders in their new league right from the start.

19) Michigan

Good job on finally beating Ohio State. But you have to realize that in order to do so, you needed to face the worst Buckeyes team in over a decade… and you still only squeaked out a six-point win. The good news is that Brady Hoke seems to be the right guy to lead Michigan back into the national spotlight.

20) Nebraska

The 20-7 win over Iowa didn’t exactly blow anyone away, but it did keep alive the Cornhuskers’ hopes for a third straight 10-win season. The great bowl tie-ins of the Big 10 will also ensure that Nebraska gets good exposure this postseason. I’m sure it hurts that this team didn’t make the title game their first year in the conference, but overall it was still a successful campaign.

21) Northern Illinois

Now riding a seven-game winning streak, the Huskies return to the MAC title game. Last year NIU dropped the ball here as favorites. Can they rebound from that frustrating episode? The opponent is another 9-3 team in Ohio, who is quite capable of pulling the upset. This is a hard one to figure, as is the Huskies continued absence from the polls.

22) Florida State

If not for a one-point, last-second loss to Virginia, FSU would also have a seven-game win streak heading into the postseason. The Seminoles’ late-September slide also cost them a division title, but the team has clearly improved over the course of the year. They seem to be just a step or two away from really announcing their return to national prominence.

23) Clemson

On the other side of the ACC coin we have Clemson. The 8-0 start, complete with a couple of magical comebacks, seemed to kill the “Clemson” tag this program has carried for too long. And then came the end of October. The Tigers went 1-3 after their dazzling start, with the lone win coming on a field goal as time expired. Now here comes an angry Virginia Tech squad eager to avenge their only loss of the season. Uh-oh.

24) West Virginia

Even if West Virginia doesn’t win the Big East they’re still the best team in the league (again). I’m sure the conference scheduled this Thursday’s contest with South Florida in the hope that the two teams would be playing for the title. Unfortunately, USF suffered a stunning fall from grace, going 1-5 in Big East play. WVU can still win the championship, but the Mountaineers require help that they shouldn’t have needed.

25) Texas

The Longhorns got a gutty win over rival A&M, so I’ll play along and toss them the final spot. It appears that UT has settled on a QB of the future (surprise! His name is McCoy) and they have a nice defense too. To me, the question of whether Mack Brown is any good is still the bigger problem hovering over this program. Time (and the last two games of this season) will tell.

Pac-12 Thoughts

We got exactly what we expected out of the Civil War, and more or less what we expected from the Apple Cup. Everywhere else was a bit of a crapshoot, as Utah blew a gigantic opportunity to win the South by losing to Colorado, Arizona State continued their downward spiral against Cal and UCLA was essentially wiped off the face of the earth by USC.

The real drama was gone midday Friday, when Utah’s loss automatically sent the Bruins north to either Eugene or Palo Alto. Oregon then took care of business, setting up perhaps the worst conference championship game since the idea was conceived: 10-2, 8-1 Oregon versus 6-6, 5-4 UCLA. The Bruins have been blown out of every game this year against a halfway decent squad and next Friday doesn’t look to change anything. UCLA seems to see the writing on the wall as well, as they’ve already fired Rick Neuheisel. Gulp. So much for a festive championship atmosphere.

The frustrating thing isn’t how the Bruins wormed their way into this game, it’s how ASU and Utah blew their chances to make it. The Sun Devils were clearly the best team in the South through October and they simply suffered an epic collapse. Utah started league play off terribly but rebounded and put themselves in position to go, only to drop the ball at the finish line. Very disappointing for the first season of the new conference.

I'll cover the coaching changes next week when everything is confirmed.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

He’s been the clear leader throughout the season and I didn’t want to waste time stating the obvious. The Notre Dame game demonstrated once again why he is so good: 20-30, four touchdowns, nearly perfect under duress.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Scored three TD’s in the first half against Texas Tech before leaving with concussion symptoms. I’m not sure if he’s considered NFL-worthy yet, but he’s easily one of the best players at his position in the college game.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Delivered in a big way against a good Tulsa team. Obviously he has the outrageous numbers, but there is something different about Keenum than other spread “system” QB’s in the past.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In this post I’ve decided to use this space to talk about the conference championship games. Normally I don’t go over matchups in detail or make predictions, but with so few games to focus on I can do that this week. In chronological order:

MAC: 

Ohio and Northern Illinois are both pretty good teams. The MAC isn’t given much credit for producing solid mid-major squads, but the conference has pulled off some nice upsets in the past (one that immediately comes to mind is Central Michigan’s fantastic win over Michigan State in 2009). NIU is the sexy pick in this game, coming in averaging just fewer than 40 points per contest, 11^th in the country. The Huskies are also eighth in the country in rushing. However, Ohio’s defense is significantly better: the Bobcats give up just 22 points a game to NIU’s 32. Their offense is also more balanced than that of the Huskies. Throw in the fact that the MAC championship has a crazy history, and this matchup becomes a serious question mark. In the end, I’ll take NIU, but I won’t be surprised if Ohio makes it close or wins

Pac-12: 

This looks like a terrible game. This isn’t because Oregon is just that good; on the contrary, the Ducks have proved to be eminently stoppable when they’re out of rhythm this season. The problem is that UCLA is just that bad. At 6-6 the Bruins are already the worst team to ever play in a conference championship game, but they could have easily lost two or three other games as well. While there’s always a danger that UO could come out flat and let UCLA hang around, I just can’t predict anything but an Oregon win.

Conference USA: 

Do my eyes deceive me? Two ranked teams in the C-USA final? This is something for the league to be really proud of. Houston has made their mark on offense, but their defense has been solid throughout the season. Last week’s shutdown of the high-powered Tulsa attack was very impressive. Southern Miss has been known for defense, but in the last three games before last Saturday’s Memphis win the Golden Eagles had given up about 30 points each time out. I hope I don’t regret finally siding with them, but how can the Cougars not have won you over at this point? They get to host the title game, it’ll be Case Keenum’s last game at home… this just seems like too much in Houston’s favor.

SEC: 

There’s not a whole lot more I can say. Georgia is a nice team who has strung together a good streak against average competition. LSU has faced some of the best teams in the country and, with a few exceptions, dominated them all. Worst of all for the Tigers’ opponents, their offense finally seems to have come around to the point that it can be counted as an asset and not a liability. When you have a defense this special, that’s all you need. Every bit of evidence we’ve seen thus far indicates that LSU will win and make a statement doing so.

Big 12: 

It’s not actually a championship game, but because the Bedlam Game will be the de facto championship it only makes sense to preview it. I like Oklahoma State’s offense more than I ever have, which is really saying something if you’ve followed OSU. Oklahoma could have boasted similar numbers if the Sooners hadn’t lost some of their key playmakers. There have been some good shootouts in this game in the past, mainly because both offenses have been way ahead of the defenses. I’m sure we’ll see a good deal of scoring again this year, but I have questions about how each team matches up with the other defensively. OU’s defense is better, there’s no doubt about that. The Cowboys have improved on that side of the ball, but they can still be had at times. If OSU was ever to break through and win this game to take the conference title, this would be the year they would do it. But I’ve seen this story too many times: great OSU offense, lots of hype, K.O.-ed against Oklahoma. The history of this series – severely one-sided in favor of the Sooners – is too great for me to ignore. Even in Stillwater, I’ll take OU.

ACC: 

I thought last week I was going to be on the cutting edge with this pick, but after watching Clemson get blown out by South Carolina I think everyone is thinking the same thing: the Tigers don’t stand a chance. I don’t know what went wrong midway through the same for Clemson, but it’s been a shocking turnaround. Since clobbering Virginia Tech the first time around (in Blacksburg, no less), the team has just looked lost. The Hokies, on the other hand, seemed to accept that they had been soundly beaten and regrouped. They turned back every opponent they faced from then on (remember, this is the ACC, so take that with a grain of salt) and finished the year 11-1. It’s hard to imagine Clemson suddenly summoning the spirit that powered them so impressively in the first month of the year and winning this game. I’ll go with the more consistent team in Tech.

Big 10: 

The inaugural league title game in the Midwest will likely be the only conference championship with a lot of drama. Obviously, when these teams first played they were about as close as two squads could possibly be. Michigan State got the miracle win on the last play and Wisconsin was left to wonder what might have been. Now we appropriately get a rematch of the most – and ONLY – BCS-worthy teams in the Big 10. MSU has had another great year with what are, in my mind, lesser players than those of a power school like Wisconsin. The Badgers are only a couple of Hail Mary passes from being in the BCS championship, but they’re also fortunate to have even made it to 10 wins. A lot rides on Spartans QB Kirk Cousins. I think Michigan State’s running game is very overrated, so he’ll need to make plays. In reality, though, the game will be decided by which Wisconsin team shows up. At their best, the Badgers are simply better. The problem is that we haven’t seen that version of Wisconsin all that consistently this season. I’m going to be optimistic and say that “good” Wisconsin wins on Saturday.