Overview
Here we are. The 2010 college football season is just hours away. Campuses are buzzing with anticipation and players are surely chomping at the bit to start meaningful games again. It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
I’ve said before that predictions are pointless. I think it’s arrogant for sportswriters to tell people what should happen, and as it turns out it’s even less of a science than was previously believed. A recent study found that sports predictions are actually correct less than 50 percent of the time, meaning that fans could pick the home team in every contest and still beat the average of the so-called experts.
Nevertheless, I know that as a person who writes about a sport I’m expected to make some solid predictions for the future. I’ve decided against a preseason top 25 because such polls have several detrimental effects. The most notable of these are how they do a disservice to “surprise” teams who defy predictions (hello, Oregon State) and how they reward bad teams who begin the season over-ranked (Florida State, for about ten years).
For the same reason I won’t be making a national champion prediction. It’s just too difficult to pick one team out of 120 to win it all and it’s lazy to just pick a favorite like Alabama or Ohio State. Despite my attempts to absorb every bit of information about college football I can, it just isn’t credible for me to make predictions that grandiose.
So I’ve decided to limit myself to picking the conference champions and a Pac-10 preview (the final Pac-10, as a matter of fact), which has been taxing enough in itself. I’ve agonized over how the conference will play out and I’m sure people will disagree with me. I might even change my mind a week from now. But that’s the beauty of this sport.
Before I get to the predictions, though, I have to mention the latest round of conference musical chairs. In short, Nevada and Fresno State have shockingly defected from the WAC to the Mountain West, which combined with Boise State’s exit should effectively gut the WAC, if not destroy it. But BYU has abandoned the Mountain West in favor of an independent schedule starting in 2011. In the end, the WAC will only have six remaining teams and the Mountain West will have a round ten.
I feel for the remaining WAC squads. I really don’t know what they’ll do, because none of them is high-profile enough to merit an invite from another conference. San Jose State, Hawaii, New Mexico State, Utah State and Idaho are in deep trouble. Only Louisiana Tech has a chance as a future conference member (logic would say the Bulldogs join the much-closer Sun Belt).
I dislike the idea of independents in general, but if any school was to suddenly go that route it makes sense that it would be BYU. Reports indicate the Cougars intend to become “Notre Dame West,” which is logical. Both are private schools with religious affiliations. The only difference is that BYU has actually been good lately. So maybe Notre Dame should become “BYU East.”
Conference Champions
ACC: Miami (FL)
I mentioned in a previous post that I saw North Carolina as a possible national title contender, but I’m backing off that prediction. I don’t like what I’ve read about the Tar Heels off-field issues of late, which could be a big distraction. Any of four teams from the Coastal Division could beat the best team from the Atlantic Division.
Big East: Pittsburgh
Not exactly going out on a limb here, but that’s because the Panthers should breeze through the suddenly rather weak Big East. West Virginia will pose a threat, but that’s about it. Pitt still needs a quarterback, though.
Big 10: Ohio State
I don’t buy Iowa and I don’t buy Penn State. The Buckeyes are the best team in this conference and regardless of my feelings about Terrelle Pryor they should continue their dominance in the final year of the 11-team Big 10.
Big 12: Oklahoma
The Sooners rebound from their injury-plagued 2009 season and return to form. I said before that I like Oklahoma as a potential national champion and I’m sticking with it. Texas should take a little step back and I don’t think Nebraska will be as good as advertised.
Conference USA: Houston
Houston all the way. The Cougars melted down in their last two games but have a lot of firepower. How’s this for offense? The team returns their top four rushers and top four receivers, including three 1,000 pass-catchers. There’s also QB Case Keenum, who could challenge the NCAA’s all-time passing record.
Mountain West: TCU
Tough choice over Utah, but the Horned Frogs are almost the same team as the one that went 12-0 in the regular season last year. You can’t pick against them. BYU seems unlikely to put up much of a fight in their last season in the league.
MAC: Temple
The Owls should have won the conference last year and this year I have them winning it out of the West. I do like Northern Illinois in the East, but Temple’s the team to beat.
SEC: Alabama
I’ve heard good things about Georgia as a possible surprise team in the East, but odds are good that Alabama, the league’s most talented squad, will repeat. They’re just way too powerful.
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee
The only conference I know little about. Troy is also a favorite and I have seen them play a few times, but Middle Tennessee is my choice. The Sun Belt has traditionally been the SEC’s whipping boy, but individual teams (like Troy) have proved that they can play with top teams on a game-by-game basis.
MAC: Boise State
It’ll be Boise State by a lot. The poor, dying WAC will get one last BCS bowl berth (its fourth in five years) before its remaining teams get sent to football purgatory. The Broncos face major non-conference tests versus Virginia Tech and Oregon State, but an undefeated WAC season is a foregone conclusion.
Pac-10 preview
I mentioned in my last post the significance of starts lost to injury and turnover margin. However, in the Pac-10, I believe there’s an even more important metric for determining success.
Quick, when was the last time the conference champion had a quarterback who was A) an underclassman and/or B) a first-year starter?
Sorry, Oregon and OSU fans, but this is an ugly reality that no one – not talk radio nor columnists nor TV personalities has addressed. Let’s look at the signal-callers for the previous year’s league champions (with team in parentheses):
2009: (Oregon) Jeremiah Masoli, junior, second-year starter.
2008: (USC) Mark Sanchez, redshirt junior, first-year starter (but saw significant time in 2007 due to injury).
2007: (USC, ASU) John David Booty, redshirt senior, second-year starter; Rudy Carpenter, redshirt junior, first-year starter.
2006: (USC, Cal) John David Booty, redshirt junior, first-year starter; Nate Longshore, redshirt junior, first-year starter.
2005: (USC) Matt Leinart, redshirt senior, third-year starter.
2004: (USC) Matt Leinart, redshirt junior, second-year starter.
2003: (USC) Matt Leinart, redshirt sophomore, first-year starter.
2002: (Washington State, USC) Jason Gesser, redshirt senior, third-year starter; Carson Palmer, senior, fourth-year starter.
2001: (Oregon) Joey Harrington, redshirt senior, third-year starter.
2000: (Washington, Oregon, Oregon State) Marques Tuiasosopo, senior, third-year starter; Joey Harrington, redshirt junior, second-year starter, Jonathan Smith, redshirt senior, second-year starter.
That's seven seniors and seven juniors, almost all of which had also redshirted. There's a single underclassman, and you may recognize him as one of the greatest college football players of all time in Matt Leinart. That is astounding (though it does fit my belief that veteran QB = wins) and does not bode well for young Darron Thomas and Ryan Katz of the Oregon schools. If a quarterback is starting for the first time, underclassman status is almost a death knell for conference title hopes.
So who are the veterans who fit the profile this season? The two most high-profile quarterbacks are Washington’s Jake Locker (redshirt senior) and Stanford’s Andrew Luck (redshirt sophomore), two teams that have been touted by some commentators as potential darkhorse champions. There’s also Kevin Riley at Cal, a guy who’s been around a while but never put it all together – yet.
Will one of those teams win the Pac-10? It seems unlikely to me. Cal has disappointed for the past three seasons, as it appears defensive coordinators have caught up with former offensive genius Jeff Tedford’s system. Riley does have some weapons, though - like running back Shane Vereen - and the Bears have a lot of talent on the roster. Cal is still dangerous, but I doubt they win it all.
Washington has improved dramatically since the arrival of Steve Sarkisian, but going from 5-7 to conference champs is just such a huge step for a team to make in one season. Locker, while supremely talented, has still yet to become a complete quarterback, and the Huskies defense is way behind their offense. They’ll have to win a lot of shootouts, and there’s no question they’re still only third best in the Northwest.
That leaves Stanford, who ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit (and the magazine’s survey of Pac-10 players) picked to win the league. Of the three, I’d have to say Stanford has the best shot. They’re still too slow defensively and they lost stud running back Toby Gerheart, but Luck is probably good enough to compensate for a lot of that. Not all of it, though. They're scary, but I still don’t think the Cardinal win the Pac-10.
If you count out WSU, ASU and UCLA (which I will, with confidence), that leaves the usual suspects and top teams from last season: Oregon, OSU, USC and Arizona.
Arizona has received the largest range of predictions from analysts, from as low as seventh or eight to as high as first. The Wildcats do return a lot of offense and junior quarterback Nick Foles, who should be even better in his second year at the helm. But there are several defensive starters to be replaced. For me, the issue is the Holiday Bowl. The last time anyone saw Arizona, the team was getting wiped off the map and humiliated by Nebraska, 33-0. I just can’t shake the feeling that this team is not mentally or physically tough enough to win the conference (for more evidence, see the choke job at the end of the Oregon game).
USC is likely the most talented team in the league again, but the whole NCAA sanctions thing is a problem. The Trojans are ineligible for the postseason for at least 2010 and thus the Pac-10 title. Even if they finish first, they won’t be declared champions. Also, Lane Kiffin has yet to prove that any part of his head works properly except for his mouth.
Thus, even though it goes against everything I’ve said, we’re back to Oregon and OSU. As I said, this is maddening stuff. Oregon State returns a ton of starters, including all-stars James and Jacquizz Rodgers and NFL-ready tackle Stephen Paea, whom I think is the best lineman the state has seen since Haloti Ngata. The Beavers also face a brutal early schedule, with road trips to Arlington to face TCU at Cowboys Stadium and in Boise versus dreaded Boise State. However, if OSU manages a decent early record for the first time in years (say, 2-1), they could head into their Pac-10 schedule with a lot of confidence. The Beavers conference dates are favorable; they get Oregon, USC and Cal all at home.
Oregon returns even more starters, including their entire offensive line (a very underrated situation for a team). Running backs Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James are scary fast, and the entire defense (which has about 18 rotation players) has speed to burn as well. The Ducks non-conference schedule is easy despite a potential trap game at Tennessee, but they face their three toughest opponents on the road at OSU, Cal and USC.
Which Oregon team will it be, then? It’s a tough choice, but I’m going with Oregon for a few reasons. First, there’s no denying the Ducks have as much or more talent than any of the (eligible) teams in the league. Second, the Ducks are the defending champs and know how to win big games. Third, Oregon does have a fifth-year senior quarterback on the roster in Nate Costa, so the veteran quarterback rule technically won’t be broken. And given Oregon's recent history, Costa may end up seeing some playing time yet. Finally, there’s just not a compelling enough reason to pick someone else. The Pac-10 seems really tight this year, and every team has a significant question mark somewhere. I’m taking the team that won the league by two games in 2009 to win it again in the Civil War on December 4th.
My final standings:
1) Oregon
2) OSU
3) Stanford
4) Washington
5) USC
6) Cal
7) Arizona
8) UCLA
9) ASU
10) WSU
Let it begin.
can alabama really be that good without Ingram?
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