Sunday, October 18, 2009

Adventures in Officiating

National Overview

As many people probably noticed, there were some extremely questionable penalties called this weekend, most notably in South Bend and Gainesville. Both USC and Arkansas fans have a right to be upset; in one case the team managed to eke out a win despite the officials because they were just better, in the other the team couldn't overcome the terrible position they were put in.

This situation can best be described as the "BCS penalty," which is explained in its entirety here. To paraphrase this well-written article, the BCS penalty is when a top-level team involved in a close game gets a very questionable call go their way. This is more or less exactly what happened this weekend. I will elaborate on the Florida-Arkansas and USC-Notre Dame games later.

The top teams across the country generally avoided big upsets this weekend, with the exception of Ohio State going down at Purdue and Virginia Tech's loss at Georgia Tech. In the SEC, Alabama and Florida won ugly, but they remain the best teams in the league. The Big 10 saw Iowa solidify its place atop the conference, while Cincinnati proved definitively they are the Big East's best team. In other leagues, though, the picture became very muddled.

The Georgia Tech upset of the 4th-ranked Hokies threw the ACC Coastal into disarray. Now Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech all have one conference loss - to each other. Could we be headed for a repeat of the Big 12 South last year? I hope the ACC's tiebreaker rules make more sense than the Big 12's, because this might get crazy. The Hurricanes and Hokies have played tougher schedules, so my vote right now would go to the 'Canes because they don't have a second loss. I still think any of those three teams will smash whoever comes out of the Atlantic, though.

The Big 12 South was probably decided on Saturday with Texas' win over Oklahoma, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Longhorns drop a game somewhere. The Sooners outplayed them for most of the game and looked to have the better quarterback too. Texas has been living on the edge and as Notre Dame proved, eventually that will come back to bite you.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech and Colorado threw two huge wrenches into the Big 12 North race by knocking off Nebraska and Kansas, respectively. Both losses were really bad, as Nebraska got run (or should I say passed?) off their own field by 21 and Kansas lost to, well, Colorado. That's the same Colorado team that got blown out by Toledo earlier this year. Both the Cornhuskers and Jayhawks lost a lot of national respect this week, though their contest will probably decide the divisional title.

Finally, the Pac-10 showed that it might be the deepest conference in the country, as Cal beat UCLA on the road, Arizona survived a wild shootout with Stanford and ASU beat Washington on a miracle last-second pass. The argument the SEC has been making for the past few years - that no team can be taken lightly because everyone is good - can be applied to the Pac-10 this season. Outside of Washington State (which actually has improved some), there are about six or seven teams that are virtually indistinguishable from each other. Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA and Cal are almost exactly as good as one another. There are some differences - I would put UCLA near the bottom of that list, with Cal and Arizona closer to the top - but any of those teams could beat any of the others. Oregon State is slightly ahead of that group, with Oregon and USC at the top of the league, but the Pac-10 really is a mystery right now.

As I said earlier, Iowa appears to be the class of the Big 10. Penn State beat a decent Minnesota team, but there is still really nothing to get excited about with the Nittany Lions. Ohio State was headed for a fall because of the way their offense was performing, but no one saw it coming at Purdue. Something is seriously wrong with the Buckeyes. Their game with Iowa should decide the conference champion, but would anyone be surprised if they lost again before then? I'm still not totally sold on Iowa because of how ugly some of their wins have been, but they have been wins.

Cincinnati showed Thursday night that South Florida didn't even belong on the same field as them. Playing without their quarterback, on the road, the Bearcats still managed a comfortable win. Pittsburgh is the only team left on their schedule I think can challenge Cincy. It's not unrealistic for Cincinnati fans to start thinking about an undefeated season, as their team looks to be the best team in the Big East by far. Even if they go 12-0, though, will they get a shot at the national championship? I have my doubts - voters don't seem to have a lot of love for the conference.

There's not a whole lot to say about the SEC this week (other than the obvious, which I will address later). Alabama predictably beat South Carolina, although their offense definitely underperformed. Florida got the win against a highly inferior Arkansas team, and everything else is pretty much irrelevant. The Tide and Gators are on a collision course for the SEC title game. If the teams played right now, though, I'm confident 'Bama would win by three touchdowns.

In non-BCS land, Boise State hung on for an extremely unimpressive win over an inept Tulsa squad, TCU clobbered a mediocre Colorado State team and Utah beat UNLV. BYU also delivered a win versus San Diego State, but only by ten. TCU seems to be the best of this group right now, and the pollsters obviously have started to notice. Notre Dame put up a surprisingly good fight against USC, but their loss should remove them from any major-bowl discussion.

On the polls

There wasn't anything too egregious in the big two polls this week. Alabama deservedly hopped Florida for the top spot, while Oklahoma was again rewarded for their tough schedule and TCU got some love. Here is my top 25. Remember, in the interest of fairness, I reevaluate each team every week.

1) Alabama

The Tide beat a top 25 team, even if that team had absolutely no offense. Alabama's own offensive struggles were a bit concerning, but this is still the best team in the country.

2) Texas

I really didn't want to move Texas up. Oklahoma outplayed the Horns and completely shut down their offense for most of the game. In the end, though, they did beat a ranked opponent in a goofy, sloppy game.

3) USC

USC gets the benefit of the doubt once again, as that near-collapse against Notre Dame would have been devastating. The Trojans look more susceptible to mental lapses than at any other point during the Carroll era. They should have easily won this week, but let the Irish hang around. Still, they would beat almost anyone in a one-game scenario.

4) Cincinnati

The Bearcats strength of schedule is weak, it's true. They haven't and won't play any truly elite teams. But consider this chain of victories: USF-Florida State-BYU. South Florida beat Florida State by double digits on the road, who beat BYU in the same fashion. If you believe the Cougars are good, as I do, then Cincy has to be in the top 5.

5) Florida

Massive problems in the pass game are nothing new. But not on the ground. The Gators were stopped dead by the SEC's worst defense for three quarters until some questionable calls turned the game around. They're not the best team in their conference, let alone the nation, and I'm treating the Arkansas game as a virtual loss.

6) Miami (FL)

The Virginia Tech loss doesn't look quite as good now, but I'm still a believer. With all things now equal in the ACC Coastal, the 'Canes have a great shot at winning the entire league. USF is the only team left on their schedule that can come close to hanging with them and that's a non-conference game.

7) Iowa

Somehow, someway, this team wins. Their quarterback is inconsistent and their defense plays hot and cold too, but all that matters is the zero in the loss column. I moved them past Boise State because Wisconsin is tougher than Tulsa.

8) Boise State

The Broncos needed to make a statement against the best team left on their schedule and they failed to deliver. The Tulsa win was on the road, which is about the only thing BSU has to offer the pollsters right now.

9) Oregon

The Ducks got the benefit of a timely bye week: teams ahead of them lost and they got to nurse their wounds. I don't usually like moving teams up without a reason, but I think the national media has underrated Oregon.

10) LSU

The Tigers were in the same situation as Oregon. They've played some ugly ball over the first month-ish of the season, but maybe they'll get on track with a bye week and time to focus. They have more talent than almost everyone on their schedule, so it's hard to imagine them not winning most of their games.

11) Georgia Tech

I hoped, I wished, I dared to dream. My beloved Yellow Jackets came through in a big way this weekend, knocking off Virginia Tech and thrusting themselves into ACC title talk. I didn't think this team could be a major player because of their awful defense, but they got the win over the Hokies regardless. Their prospects are still questionable because of that D (they could just as easily lose a game they shouldn't), but as long as the offense is functioning they have a chance.

12) TCU

OK, it was Colorado State, but the Horned Frogs delivered a shellacking this weekend. TCU has BCS-conference talent in a good league. This ranking is pending the big game against BYU next week. I think TCU is better and they have a blueprint from Florida State on how to beat the Cougars.

13) Virginia Tech

I still think VT is really good, but you have to knock them for their loss this week. Their offense is shaky, but the Hokie's hallmark has always been defense. That's why the game against Georgia Tech was so surprising. Now we'll see if these guys can bounce back and still compete for an ACC title.

14) BYU

The San Diego State win was less than spectacular, but it's possible BYU was looking ahead to TCU next week. The winner of that game gets a big leg up in the Mountain West race. Let's revisit this team in a week's time.

15) Houston

Houston has looked good the last two games and the UTEP loss is looking more and more like a fluke. There's no reason to believe they can't run the table the rest of the way and set themselves up for a Conference USA title. With a little luck, they could play their way into a BCS bowl.

16) Oklahoma State

I'm ready to give the Cowboys some credit after the win over Missouri. The Tigers aren't great, but they're decent, and the more Houston wins the better the Pokes look. If they can stay healthy, I wonder if they can upset Texas.

17) Penn State

The Nittany Lions get to move up by virtue of the losses ahead of them. Shutting out Minnesota is a little something to hang your hat on, but PSU needs to beat Michigan and Ohio State to have even a shred of credibility.

18) Utah

They won handily over an inferior UNLV team, but the Utes probably won't be challenged for several weeks. All they need to do right now is lurk in the weeds while other teams fall. If they take care of business, we could be looking at some highly ranked showdowns against TCU and BYU.

19) Pittsburgh

I liked what I saw against Rutgers, even though the win was only by seven points. When the running game is going, this team is hard to beat. They'll definitely be tested over the last half of the season, but right now I think this is the best challenger to Cincinnati in the Big East. There could be a great showdown with the Bearcats in the last week if the Panthers keep winning.

20) Texas Tech

Where did that come from? Texas Tech, never known for their defense under Mike Leach, crushed Nebraska in Lincoln last week. All of a sudden this Tech team is looking formidable and their losses - to Texas and Houston - are quite respectable.

21) Ohio State

Wow, did I call that one or what? I said the defense would break down eventually - I just didn't know "eventually" meant "next week." Ohio State was absolutely horrid on offense for three quarters and their defense paid for it. You can't go three-and-out all the time and expect to stop anyone. Your defenders will just get tired. I don't know how to project this team anymore.

22) Oklahoma

I know, they're 3-3. But I just can't believe Oklahoma is going to fold up and die this season. They looked way better than Texas on Saturday, particularly on defense. Oklahoma is better than Kansas, Texas Tech and in all likelihood Oklahoma State. The losses have come by a combined five points to teams ranked 3rd, 8th and 16th.

23) Arizona

If not for a bizarre fluke interception in Seattle, the Wildcats would be 5-1 with the only loss at Iowa. As it stands now, they're tied for second in the conference and have been remarkably resilient in close games. This might be the third-best team in the Pac-10. Remember, they did beat Oregon State on the road.

24) Michigan

I don't give them much credit for annihilating Delaware State, but they did win and deserve to move up because of other teams' losses. I'm interested to see how they do versus Penn State this weekend. With a win, the Wolverines are a Big 10 player; with a loss, they could be in for a (completely ridiculous and undeserved) quarterback controversy.

25) Nebraska

Ugh. A week after I sang the praises of their defense, the Blackshirts got rocked by Texas Tech. At least I was spot-on about the offense, which did absolutely nothing again. This time the Huskers paid for it. I still think they're the best team in their division, but that might not be saying much anymore.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I know you've been patiently waiting for my take on this weekend's officiating, so without further ado I shall reward you. Let's just say I was disgusted.

In the USC-Notre Dame game, two very soft personal fouls were called on the Trojans for roughing the passer, including one that extended the Irish's final drive that almost tied the game. Then, after a Notre Dame pass fell incomplete with no time left, the officials reviewed the play and added a second back onto the clock! During the majority of football games, the clock runs an extra second or two on incomplete passes, runs that go out of bounds and field goals, because it's almost impossible to tell exactly when the play should be ruled over. However, in this instance the officials saw fit not only to review the play in question, but also differentiated between one and zero seconds on the game clock. Remember, there are no tenths of a second in football as there are in basketball, so the officials' task becomes even harder. The idea that they could determine definitively - what video review is based on - that there should be one second left is laughable.

USC's situation pales in comparison to the atrocity committed against Arkansas, though. The Razorbacks got absolutely hosed in the fourth quarter against Florida, epitomizing the so-called BCS penalty. There were several instances where Florida was favored, but I'll limit my discussion to the worst three.

On Florida's game-tying drive, an Arkansas defensive back looked back toward the ball as it was thrown to the end zone. There was minimal contact on the play and the pass was underthrown, making it nearly uncatchable. However, the Razorbacks were flagged for interference.

On the very next play, Florida threw a swing screen that went for a few yards to the far sideline. Afterwards, Arkansas was flagged for unnecessary roughness. The crime? As he followed the play, a defensive tackle noticed one of Florida's offensive linemen peeling off to deliver a blindside hit on him. He turned and shoved the Florida player to the ground. The play was not over and the hit was not hard at all, or even close to dirty. Thanks to these back-to-back 15-yard penalties, the Gators scored on the next play.

Finally, as Florida drove on what would be the game-winning drive, there was no call when a Florida receiver jumped through an Arkansas defensive back trying to catch the ball in the end zone. Offensive pass interference could easily have been the call.

All three plays can be found in sequence here, here and here. If you turn the volume up you can even hear the announcers saying how bad the penalties were.

I don't hate Florida. The Gators have great talent and Urban Meyer is an excellent coach. I do hate bad officiating. These are some of the worst calls I have ever seen, particularly the personal foul for unnecessary roughness. It makes me sick to think of how hard Arkansas played all game just to have the game taken out of their hands by a shady officiating crew. This was the same crew, by the way, that turned the Georgia-LSU game a few weeks ago into a circus by needlessly penalizing every player that moved in the fourth quarter. The SEC has to look into this.

With that unpleasant subject out of the play, I can mention some other things I saw this weekend:

Non-BCS schools have earned respect from the voters. Remember a few years back when a mid-major would have to go undefeated (or nearly undefeated) just to get ranked? Utah and Boise State's BCS bowl wins have clearly had an effect, as BYU and Utah are both ranked despite early losses. This is good for college football, as it might level the playing field just a little.

South Carolina is benefitting from its SEC status. The Gamecocks might deserve to be ranked later in the season when they win a few more games, but right now there is no justification for them to be in the top 25. They lost to the two best teams they played, including a highly overrated Georgia squad. Their big win was over an Ole Miss team that has now been exposed as the biggest fraud in the country. In fact, directly after that game, an ESPN commentator said that by virtue of their win South Carolina was "one of the 15 best teams in the country." What?! Both teams were overrated - their best combined win was by two points over 3-3 Kentucky. Please spare us the SEC prejudice, voters.

College Football Final had some interesting perspectives on why Boise State's strength of schedule is so poor. The Broncos play in the nation's second-worst conference, but it was noted that the school has had trouble getting big-name schools to play them because they might actually lose. The highly intelligent counterargument to this was that "teams like Florida and USC and Texas aren't scared to play Boise State. If you called any of those coaches, they'd say they have no problem playing BSU."

This is a completely misinformed argument. The truth is that no school wants any part of Boise State - it was a major coup for them to get even Oregon to agree to a home-and-home. Every school would love to play BSU on a single-game basis at home, like Georgia bravely did in 2005. Absolutely no one will agree to a fair home-and-home situation for fear of losing. By definition, this means that those schools are afraid to schedule Boise State. And if Texas pulled out of a game with Hawai'i in 2007, as they did, do you really think they want any part of the Broncos?

College Football Final also failed once again to do its duty as a balanced program. During the show, an analyst had a conversation with Texas coach Mack Brown in which the two discussed playing within the BCS system. Brown said his players had to be focused on "the games, not the system," which the analyst agreed had hurt the Longhorns last year. (In 2008, Oklahoma passed Texas in the BCS standings to win the Big 12 South in a tiebreaker despite the Horns victory over the Sooners head-to-head.) Both analyst and coach said the system was unfair.

The problem with this? In 2004, Cal was ranked 4th and Texas 5th with one week left in the season. The teams' losses had come to #1 USC and #2 Oklahoma, respectively. However, Brown publicly pleaded with voters to move the Texas past the Bears on their ballots because he thought his team was better. Lo and behold, the voters obliged, awarding Texas an automatic BCS bowl berth because of their #4 ranking. Cal was robbed of their first Rose Bowl in decades and several million dollars by being relegated to the Holiday Bowl.

Texas has probably benefitted from the BCS system more in one instance than any other team. They have absolutely nothing to whine about. I think the saying that best applies to this situation is "what goes around comes around." It's not hard to guess whether the analyst called Brown out on this as he should have.

The final thought I have is on a trend that has been growing steadily over the past few seasons. Most enjoyably, it involves Georgia Tech! I promised last week to expand on my love of the Yellow Jacket's offense, and here it is.

Georgia Tech runs a triple-option offense much like Florida's or Oregon's, but they do it out of the archaic flexbone formation rather than the sexier and more futuristic shotgun spread. The difference is that the flexbone places the quarterback under center, with three running backs around him: one on the left, one on the right and a fullback directly behind. The staple of the offense is the triple-option, in which one of the running backs goes in motion and the quarterback can choose to hand the ball up the middle to the fullback, keep it, or pitch it to the running back.

The offense - simple in nature, but extremely difficult to execute and defend - relies on quick decisions from the quarterback and misdirection to confuse the defense. Sound familiar? That's because it's the same principle that guides the read-option so many teams now run out of the shotgun. The advantages of running the flexbone are varied: the runners are closer to the line and can thus gain yardage faster; the defense has to worry about guarding every player on every play, and the pass is almost never utilized and therefore deadly when it is called upon.

I love the flexbone because it brings something new to the table, just like the more-publicized but less-successful Wildcat. Teams and coaches arrogantly believe they can stop this old-fashioned system, which is why it has stampeded over almost everyone Georgia Tech has played the last few seasons. When coach Paul Johnson was at Navy his teams regularly led the nation in rushing and this trend has continued at his new job.

My favorite part of this story is how wrong many prominent analysts were about it when Tech announced the Johnson hiring. Exactly as they did when Urban Meyer brought his spread-option to Florida, writers and television personalities said the offense would fail in a major conference because "the defensive players are so much better." Guess what? When you play in a major conference, you have great players on offense too. In both cases the predictors turned out to be completely wrong because they failed to realize how fundamentally sound the systems are. Both emphasize either running or passing to set up the other, which is what football has been about since the forward pass was legalized. Many people now say the spread offense is taking over college football, a claim I refute. The misdirection offense is taking over college football, as coaches have realized you don't always have to be bigger or faster - you just have to be smarter. Smart teams will begin incorporating the flexbone into their offenses to win.

So that, in very long-winded fashion, is why I love Georgia Tech.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

Eric Norwood, LB, South Carolina

They lost to Alabama, but the Gamecocks' D kept them in the game far longer than they deserved. Norwood is the reason why. When a linebacker is this good, he makes life easier for linemen in defending the run and the secondary by pressuring the quarterback. His 14.5 tackles for a loss this season says it all.

Ndamukong Suh, DL, Nebraska

The Huskers' defensive meltdown against Texas Tech all but eliminates his chances to actually win the award, but Suh should still be receiving consideration, all things equal. If offensive players can have a bad game and still be in the race Suh deserves to be recognized too.

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

I hesitate nominating running backs, because I think they get too much credit for what their lines accomplish. But what Ingram has done so far this season cannot be denied. He went for 256 against South Carolina's stout defense and has rushed for almost 1,000 yards already.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

I didn't want to put a quarterback on here for the same reason as running backs, but like Ingram what Keenum has accomplished has been incredible. He's first in the country in passing yards and touchdowns and in the top ten in efficiency. There's no way Houston beats Oklahoma State and Texas Tech without him.

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