Halloween Weekend Preview

Fright Night

Question: what happened to all the good games? Two full months into the season, we have only two contests slated to match up top 25 teams. There are several potential close games, but conference play is in full swing. How is nearly the entire top 25 playing unranked opponents? This is frustrating.

One answer is the trend of "superconferences" such as the Big 12, SEC and ACC. All these leagues added schools in the past 15-20 years to create 12-team conferences with two divisions. College football conferences generally have 10-20 percent good teams, 50-60 percent mediocre teams and 20-30 percent bad teams. By raising the number of participants to 12, these leagues watered down the competition: two patsies per league, as in the Pac-10 (Washington State and UCLA), becomes four in the SEC (Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee). The increasing willingness of voters to give mid-major schools credit could also explain why there are fewer ranked-vs-ranked games.

Of course, this means that the two primetime Halloween games are all the more visible and significant. Texas and Oklahoma State square off in Stillwater in a game that could decide the division (and thus conference) champion, while USC at Oregon figures to be the game of the year in the Pac 10.

I feel as though the Texas-OSU game comes down to whether the Cowboys realize that Colt McCoy only passes to Jordan Shipley, under five yards, or both. Shipley has caught nearly twice as many balls as any other Texas receiver this year. Missouri last week failed to recognize this and gave him at least five yards to operate on almost every play. The result was over 100 yards and two scores for Shipley. Texas' running game is spotty, so most of their offense funnels through McCoy and Shipley. Shut those two down and make someone else beat you, Pokes.

Offensively, the Cowboys are balanced and will get some help with the return of running back Kendall Hunter this week. Even without Dez Bryant, the passing attack has been solid for OSU, so I don't see Texas shutting them down. The score was 28-23 last year when these teams played and this game has the potential to be just as close. The Cowboys certainly have the ability to beat the Horns. They have to attack them from the opening kickoff to do it, though.

The Oregon-USC game hinges on a number of variables. I've really had a tough time with this one. The play of Matt Barkley is the first question. Will he be the rare underclassman who can handle Autzen Stadium, a la Kellen Moore? Or will he fall by the wayside like so many others have done? Barkley has a ton of confidence, but it remains to be seen whether this will boost him or kill him. The weather is another important factor. I think Oregon needs a rain-free night for their spread-option to work successfully. The Ducks will try to duplicate Oregon State's gameplan from last week, which involved putting receivers and backs in space and heavy passing to the tight end. It seems as if USC should have no problem containing jitterbug LaMichael James, but the same could be said for OSU's Jacquizz Rodgers, and he has shredded them last two years. James is faster than Rodgers, by the way.

The Oregon defense has been playing exceptionally well for about a month. Can it contain the Trojans' explosive offense? Barkley will be without his favorite target, tight end Anthony McCoy. The first fifteen minutes will be crucial for both teams - USC can't afford to get down big and Oregon can't afford to let the Trojans silence the crowd.

My final thought on this game is the eerie similarity between this contest and the teams' 2007 meeting in Eugene. In that game, USC came in with a young quarterback (Mark Sanchez). The Trojans had already lost an embarrassing game to a bad conference opponent (Stanford). And Oregon came in on a roll, with all the media asking "Can the Ducks upset USC?" Can they? I just don't know. 2009 Oregon is better defensively but weaker offensively. USC is down a little from their usual dominant, intimidating selves. Tomorrow's game should be incredibly entertaining, and I will try to give the best analysis I can over the weekend.

Quick Notes

As I write this post, West Virginia is in the process of losing to South Florida - the same team that just went 0-2 versus Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Some conferences talk about "teams beating each other" as a sign of strength (looking at you, SEC). However, I'm not sure you can make that argument with the Big East. The fact that the teams only play seven league games really dilutes their schedules, ensuring that all of them play at least one lower-division opponent. The best out-of-conference win the Big East has this year is Cincy over Oregon State. OK, but Arizona beat OSU too. Unless the nation sees more, they will remain unconvinced of the conference's legitimacy.

I hope I'm not misinterpreting the situation, but from what I understand, the NCAA's full-year suspension of Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant is patently unfair. Basically, Bryant met with former NFL star Deion Sanders (which is perfectly legal) and went to his house. While he was there, he sat in on a meeting in which Sanders and another individual discussed something that had nothing to do with football. When asked by the NCAA about the meeting, Bryant panicked and said he had never met Sanders. So his biggest crime was lying to the NCAA, for which he will never play college football again (Bryant is expected to enter the NFL Draft next spring). The NCAA claimed that it was not trying to "make an example" out of Bryant, but what other explanation is there? He was punished because he lied to the almighty NCAA, a discretion the antiquated and pompous organization can never forgive.

Close your eyes, because the Big 12 North is about to get ever uglier. Kansas State, the division leader du jour, looks incredibly overmatched against Oklahoma this week, and second-place Iowa State (Iowa State?) faces Texas A&M, who KO'd Texas Tech last weekend. Kansas and Nebraska, meanwhile, face Texas Tech and Baylor, respectively. We could be headed for a ridiculously complex division race in which no team finishes better than 4-4 in conference play. Ugh. A division of mediocrity indeed.

Virginia Tech's midweek loss to North Carolina wasn't exactly shocking. I know I picked them as favorites to win out after last weekend, but I reconsidered when I saw the product the Hokies had on the field in the first half. VT simply doesn't look like they have improved at all since the start of the season and they deserved to lose to UNC. This doesn't have any relevance on the ACC race any longer (because Georgia Tech is going to run away with the title!) but it could have a huge impact on the BCS standings. The more the Hokies lose, the worse Alabama's record looks, which could undercut the SEC's efforts to get two teams in BCS bowls. So quite frankly, if you're a fan of real college football and not the bluster and arrogance of the SEC, root for VT to lose from here on out. Simple.

Central Michigan plays Boston College this week in a game that is more important than it might appear at first glance. Chippewas quarterback Dan LeFevour has a chance to really impress voters if he can lead his team to an upset and I hope he does. LeFevour has been the Tim Tebow of the Midwest for the last three years, just without the media fawning. He already showed off his skills in a 29-27 upset of Michigan State in September when CMU scored the final nine points in the last minute. He has had a great career and deservers Heisman consideration.