Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Well that was fun

Nothing earth-shattering in the top 25 this week, but the rest of the country sure made up for it. For the second straight week, there was a wild Friday night thriller, and that was before the outrageous shootouts that were Georgia-South Carolina, Mississippi State-Auburn and Notre Dame-Michigan. I mean, how absurd were those games? How much excitement can one weekend possibly supply? This last weekend epitomized what makes college football great.

At the same time, though, all of these crazy finishes left something to be desired. Namely, defense. It wasn’t just the football purists who shed tears for their sport this week. Seriously, can’t anyone even slow down an offense these days? I would hope that the results of the two aforementioned SEC contests would finally put to rest the myth that Southern teams play better defense than anyone, but we know that’s probably never going to happen. But how dense do you have to be to not see it? SEC offenses aren’t exactly known for their productivity. Here’s how many points those four teams gave up in their collective eight games thus far: 35, 45, 37, 42, 38, 34, 41 and 14. Some rock-solid SEC defense there, eh?

Or, rather, is it that elite SEC defenses – just like elite defenses around the nation – are better than the rest of their weaker conference counterparts? Yes, some SEC teams play outstanding defense. LSU and Alabama are probably the two best defensive teams in the country. But to apply their greatness freely to the rest of the conference without looking at the truth of the matter is to aggressively ignore reality.

By the way, my Georgia-South Carolina rankings prediction from last week unfortunately couldn’t come to be because Georgia really is that overrated. However, we got a perfect illustration of what I was referring to when (unranked) Auburn upset 16th-ranked Mississippi State and surprise, surprise! – both teams were ranked the next morning. Because God forbid we admit that MSU isn’t really that good. No, better for the voters to cover themselves by ranking both teams, even though Auburn definitively proved last week that they aren’t that good when they luckily escaped a terrible Utah State squad.

But I rag on the SEC enough (and truly, the SEC West is the best division in the sport). Besides, the “worst defense” award doesn’t go to any of those schools. No, the worst defense of the week – nay, the young season (and possibly of all time) – was on display in Ann Arbor, where Michigan and Notre Dame honored the first night game at the Big House in the most ironic way possible, donning throwback uniforms on the very evening both teams decided to not play any defense. Knute Rockne and Bo Schembechler would have been appalled.

Of course, at the expense of defense, we got to see one of the most exciting college football finishes in recent memory. It was as if both teams’ secondaries just lost their collective minds. Have you ever seen so many wide-open receivers running downfield? It was a monumental combination of errors and incompetence. But it sure made for great viewing.

Top 25

1) Alabama

The Crimson Tide’s defense is superb, but for the first time I’m worried about their offense. The complete lack of a reliable quarterback in Tuscaloosa is going to hurt at some point, just as LSU will discover. The difference is that Nick Saban is a very good coach.

2) Oklahoma

Seems a little unfair that Oklahoma got to take week two off to get ready for FSU, but the Seminoles will just have to deal. I considered moving the Sooners up to the top spot this week because of their vast QB advantage over Bama, but it didn’t feel right given that OU had a bye. If they hammer FSU, though, that might change.

3) LSU

LSU predictably sleepwalked through their first post-Oregon game. Next up: recently wounded Mississippi State, who blew their shot to make an important conference-opening statement. Though even the mediocre Chris Relf presents an upgrade over Tigers QB Jarrett Lee, I expect LSU’s defense to win the day once again.

4) Boise State

How much can you say about the Broncos? Unless there’s a huge upset or someone important gets hurt, there’s almost nothing to write about. BSU will probably continue to win and win big. There is an interesting challenge this Friday against a game Toledo team who took Ohio State to the brink, though.

5) Stanford

That 10-point halftime lead was a bit worrisome, but the Cardinal did put the hammer down in the second half. Andrew Luck throwing a pick-six was a little jarring too. No matter. This week the team starts their conference schedule with a school, Arizona, who they blasted last year.

6) Wisconsin

I was tempted to move the Badgers to number five for a minute. Then I remembered that unimpressive first-half showing against a bad Oregon State defense and decided it would be prudent to wait another week to make that call. If nothing else, the Beavers showed that anyone can sell out to stop the run and be competitive with Wisconsin.

7) Texas A&M

A&M will likely wake up sometime in the second half this Saturday to put down Idaho. The Aggies’ minds are going to be on next week’s opponent, Oklahoma State. I’m really getting amped for that game, as it will announce which team will be the front-runner to challenge Oklahoma for the Big 12 title.

8) Oregon

Dropping 69 on Nevada demonstrated that, once again, it’s only the best defenses that can keep Oregon down. Do I think the Ducks are anywhere near last season’s level yet? No. But fortunately for them, they’ve got another couple of weeks to work things out. Even the conference opener at Arizona should be easier than expected, because the Wildcats will be in the middle of a horrendous stretch against three straight top-10 foes.

9) Virginia Tech

So did the Hokies beat East Carolina more or less impressively than South Carolina did? Both of the bird-mascot schools trailed the Pirates at some point, though Tech won a slugfest while South Carolina won a shootout. In the end, I dropped VT one rung because I seriously doubt they could match up with Oregon.

10) Oklahoma State

I’m ready to believe, Cowboys. Now don’t do something stupid, like losing to dangerous Tulsa this week en route to that big showdown with Texas A&M. There a lot of potential for fireworks both of the next two games, given the nature of OSU’s defense. The offense just can’t afford to be off.

11) Florida State

I’ve been rather harsh about FSU’s legitimacy. Now they finally get a chance to show what they can do when they host Oklahoma this week. While there’s ACC pride on the line, I really think this is even a bigger game for the FSU program. The Seminoles desperately want to be the team they used to be, and they need this win.

12) Nebraska

The Huskers, like many BCS teams over the past dozen-odd years, took Fresno State too lightly and almost paid for it. Taylor Martinez was exposed yet again as a receiver playing QB, which might eventually be the reason Nebraska fails to win the Big 10. I don’t see how they can hope to beat Wisconsin with him.

13) Arkansas

I’m very fond of Arkansas, but it kind of feels like we’re just waiting until they play a decent team and get crushed to drop them in the rankings. As a sign of respect for the Razorbacks’ potent offense, I won’t move them down until that happens, but I don’t have a lot of faith that they can compete in the SEC West.

14) Ohio State

Some analysts said this week that Toledo is a very good team and the fact that they almost beat the Buckeyes demonstrates their legitimacy rather than Ohio State’s middling quality. I’m not buying it. I’m comfortable with the idea of Toledo being a good team, but there is just no way they should have been able to compete with OSU.

15) South Carolina

I left the Gamecocks right where I had them last week. The win over Georgia was certainly exciting, but Georgia isn’t that good. However, you can’t truthfully say the Bulldogs are a bunch of bums, and the game was on the road, so… South Carolina stays in the same spot. Seems fair to me.

16) Michigan State

I gave Ohio State a lot of credit for completely crushing Akron’s offense in week one, so I have to do the same for the Spartans. Of course, what MSU did defensively was even more impressive. Really? 48 yards and one first down? That’s unheard of. I know it was Florida Atlantic, but still. Next up for Sparty: Notre Dame.

17) Arizona State

Arizona State got to show off for the nation on Friday night, and they gave the most honest team performance I’ve ever seen. The Sun Devils’ abundance of talent and potential were on full display as they built a two-touchdown lead on Missouri. Then everyone got to see their propensity to make foolish mistakes and stupid penalties as they let the Tigers back in the game. This team can win, but they have to play smarter.

18) Baylor

No word yet on whether Baylor can really hang with the big boys in the Big 12 this season (I kind of doubt it, but we’ll see). What is clear through the first two weeks is that people are finally cottoning on to the greatness of Robert Griffin III. Any and all Heisman hype directed at a certain QB in Ann Arbor should be focused on RG3.

19) South Florida

I don’t think USF will really be tested until they go on the road for their first two league games against Pittsburgh and defending Big East champ UConn. Certainly Florida A&M and UTEP shouldn’t be too much to handle. The biggest challenge for the Bulls will be to stay healthy until October.

20) West Virginia

After an alarming halftime deficit to Norfolk State the Mountaineers got it going. That’s good, because their competition ramps up sharply in difficulty in both of the next two weeks: first against rival Maryland, then versus LSU. Any chance WVU gets out of September undefeated? Ask again once they play the Terrapins.

21) Houston

How in the world is Texas ranked and not Houston? The Cougars would destroy the Longhorns. BYU nearly beat Texas, and those Cougars are about half as good as Case Keenum’s crew. This is a travesty. Houston’s schedule doesn’t give them a whole lot of chances to impress voters, so people should give them some credit now.

22) TCU

Hmm. I wouldn’t have been shocked if Air Force had upset the shell-shocked Horned Frogs, but TCU clobbered the Falcons. Perhaps they were written off to the bottom half of the top 25 too soon. The Mountain West actually presents some decent obstacles, so we’ll find out if Boise State has a true challenger.

23) USC

I don’t know what to make of SC. They could have easily lost both of their games, yet here they stand at 2-0. The lack of playmakers on the Trojan offense is disturbing given their touted recruiting classes, but it could be that the extreme focus on Roberts Woods (which is understandable) has stunted the growth of other players.

24) Auburn

All right, I’m willing to concede that Auburn can be ranked. Somehow, despite fate’s best efforts, the Tigers just can’t seem to lose. I certainly don’t think they’re ready to take on LSU or Alabama, but having Gus Malzahn in your corner helps a lot. With time, and a continued propensity for lucky breaks, this team could become formidable.

25) Michigan

Big Blue has the same “never say die” attitude as Auburn right now. Though last week’s win was more about Notre Dame blowing it than what Michigan did, you have to give the Wolverines credit for not folding while there was still time on the clock. One problem, though: the new offense hasn’t gelled at all. That’s going to be an issue.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Checking in on all our friends out west… let’s start with the North. Cal did beat Colorado in that weird conference-game-that-wasn’t, but they needed overtime to do so and were outgained by 200 yards, mostly through the air. That bodes very badly for the Bears. Stanford curiously didn’t pull away from Duke until the second half, though it’s possible the Cardinal were holding back for their conference opener against Arizona. Oregon was explosive but struggled to run the ball on Nevada, which is a bad sign. The Ducks’ offensive line clearly needs some work.

Oregon State just got killed at Wisconsin despite a pretty good defensive performance, and now Mike Riley has switched QB’s. I don’t honestly have a clue about why he’s dropping Ryan Katz for Sean Mannion. It would make sense for the Beavers to give up on 2011 and have a “youth movement” if Katz was a senior, but he’s still got a couple dozen games left as an amateur and I don’t see how pulling the plug on him is a positive move. Mannion didn’t play any better against the Badgers. We’ll have to watch this controversy with bemusement – and believe me, it’s already a controversy.

Washington struggled to put away Hawai’i just as they did against Eastern Washington. The Huskies might have some defensive issues, but they won’t see another passing offense like the ones the Warriors and Eagles ran. That’s a positive – as is UDub starting the year 2-0 for the first time since 2007. Washington State is also off to a 2-0 start, which is a much bigger deal given how bad the Cougars have been in recent years.

USC got the first Pac-12 season started with a closer-then-it-should-have-been win over Utah. The Trojans may be the second best team in the South, but they’ve got to find some consistency on both sides of the ball if they want to be taken seriously. Utah looked decent in their first game in a BCS conference, but the Utes had no business being in position to tie the game. They’ll still be a bit player in the Pac-12 race, but losing the opener hurts.

Poor Colorado could have really used that win over Cal. This week will be the Buffaloes’ best chance all season, against Colorado State. They’d better get this one, because I don’t see a guaranteed win on the rest of their schedule. Arizona got waxed at Oklahoma State, but that’s not too embarrassing. OSU is quite good. Much more concerning was UCLA’s pedestrian 10-point win over San Jose State. Psst. Want to hear a secret? I think there’s a chance the Bruins aren’t very good…

So then we come to Arizona State. The Fork was feared on Friday in Tempe, but man, did the Sun Devils make it hard for themselves. Anyone watching that game could see that Missouri was simply overmatched, but as is their custom, ASU had to try to give it away. At this point, I don’t think you can write it off as immature play – I’ve seen too much of this over the years from Dennis Erickson-coached teams. More on this later.

Heisman* Watch

*As my last post explained, this list excludes Andrew Luck because the actual Heisman race is all but over. This is a “best of the rest.”

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

I’ll keep him here until he falters. Griffin is a rare athlete for a player so gifted as a passer. Unlike Michigan QB Denard Robinson, he’s as good as the hype surrounding him. He just needs to avoid injuries.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Good thing the NCAA cracked down on those crooks from Boise. Handing out three years’ probation and scholarship losses sure beats having to deal with any of the real problems around the country at Ohio State, Auburn, Oregon, or Miami. I mean, have you even seen the rap sheet of “impermissible benefits” Boise dealt out? Come on, NCAA. People sometimes say the NCAA goes after the little programs upsetting the balance of power and covers up for the big-name schools. I don’t normally buy it, but how is this not a perfect example of the NCAA doing just that?

There’s a lot of hype around Michigan’s Denard Robinson again. It’s understandable – he just brought UM back from certain defeat against Notre Dame, and he ran for an NCAA-QB record 1,700 yards last season while also throwing for 2,500. He’s a great athlete. However, he isn’t particularly accurate, a fact his athleticism masks (just 11-for-24 last week). And while his fourth-quarter performance against Notre Dame was extraordinary, you can’t forget the fact that it was partially because of his three interceptions that Michigan was in that position in the first place.

Because of this, I’ve awarded Robinson my first “Stanzi” award. Named for late Iowa QB (he graduated, he’s not dead) Ricky Stanzi, “Stanzi-ing” a game refers to a player (generally a QB) who is responsible for putting his team into a huge hole and then receives the credit for bringing the team back. Stanzi was infamous for tossing multiple picks in a game, then going nuts in the fourth quarter and winning the game. Thus the phrase is born: Robinson “Stanzied it” against the Fighting Irish.

I liken this term to the phrase “Cougin’ it,” which arose after Washington State became famous for their late-game collapses. No season was more indicative of Wazzu’s ability to “Coug it” in winnable games than 2005, when the Cougars lost an astonishing six games in this fashion by a total of 27 points. The phrase has since spread to the general college football lexicon whenever a team “snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.” I think “Stanzied” is just as appropriate.

My last thought is regarding Arizona State Dennis Erickson. I think Erickson is a pretty good coach, though he hasn’t always succeeded in the face of great expectations. But it’s funny that people still can’t see how his coaching style works. What has Arizona State been known for since Erickson took over in 2007? Underachieving, thanks to sloppy, undisciplined play and tons of penalties, particularly personal fouls. What was Oregon State known for when Erickson was in charge? The Beavers featured a high-octane offense, a speedy defense, and… a reputation for unsportsmanlike play. I couldn’t find the data online, but I believe the 11-1 OSU team from 2000 led the nation in penalties. I do remember the 2001 Fiesta Bowl following that season, when the Beavs annihilated Notre Dame 41-9 and racked up 18 penalties for 174 yards.

All of this is before we even get to Erickson’s Miami tenure (the guy has coached a ton of places). I think everyone knows what the Hurricanes were famous for. My point is that this is not an isolated incident or a problem than can just get fixed. People have to realize that this is how Dennis Erickson teams play: fast, out of control and undisciplined. He has never put a premium on getting his players to win the mental game along with the physical one. That’s just the way he coaches. In the end, it’s a shame, because he’s ended up wasting a lot of potential.

So that’s it for week three. We should start getting some real definitive information this week about who’s for real and who’s not and how the conference races are going to shape up. See you next week.

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