Into a bold new October we go

It was another thoroughly enjoyable weekend around the country. There was drama at all three standard game times (9:00, 12:30 and 3:30 PST) and in every conference. If you got up early, you saw the back-and-forth shootout that was North Carolina-Georgia Tech along with the ugly slugfest of Pittsburgh-Notre Dame. Just after noon the best matchups kicked off, including a trio of ranked-versus-ranked games topped by Oklahoma State’s fantastic comeback over Texas A&M.

As the afternoon wore on we saw close finishes at California-Washington and Kansas State-Miami (FL). Those were followed by the  primetime games (Missouri-Oklahoma and LSU-West Virginia), both of which were interesting but never really in doubt. However, the day did end with a pair of shootouts in the desert, as Arizona State toppled USC and Oregon held off a furious charge by Arizona.

Thankfully, this weekend saw the quietest off-field action of the young season. Yes, the SEC has now officially added Texas A&M and says it doesn’t plan to grab another team (because 13 teams really makes sense, right?), but that felt like an inevitability at this point. But that was about it. No scandals broken, no crazy coach interviews, no new teams bolting for other leagues. For once the focus was on football, and rightfully so, because this week was just as good as every other has been in 2011.

The one sour note was the unfortunate result of the Toledo-Syracuse contest, where Syracuse’s erroneously “good” PAT cost Toledo a win in regulation in a game the Rockets lost in overtime. The MAC school was apparently demanding to be awarded the victory this week, as the Big East acknowledged its replay official had made a mistake. However, MAC commissioner Jon Steinbrecher has said that NCAA rules do not allow scores to be changed after games are declared over. I think that’s the right attitude to take. While Toledo should have won, bad calls happen all the time, and sometimes someone gets unfairly punished. Retroactively changing the outcome of games is a bad idea.

Top 25

1) Oklahoma

I think Missouri is a fringe top-25 team. The Tigers will be ranked again at some point this year. OU should thus get credit for a relatively decent win. The Sooners’ problem seems to be consistency. I saw the AP Poll has dropped Oklahoma from the top spot; I don’t understand that. Missouri and West Virginia are equal in my mind.

2) Alabama

I would have jumped LSU past Alabama… but once again, look at who the two teams played this week. Arkansas, while overrated, is certainly better than West Virginia. So I can’t justify dropping Bama any more than Oklahoma. It’s illogical. The Crimson Tide should roll Florida this week without much trouble.

3) LSU

Of the top three teams, LSU has the best win (Oregon) and the best body of work. But… I thought last week that the Tigers were number three. I think it can be argued that West Virginia was in fact the weakest opponent between the three this weekend. Based on that, it makes no sense to move them up like the 28 AP voters who suddenly did. Really? You thought WVU was that good?

4) Boise State

Honestly… I think Boise might be the best team in the country. Their competition isn’t close to the kind the Big Three will face. But looking at the Broncos, I can’t find a weakness. And considering how quarterback-driven college football has become, it doesn’t make sense to go against Kellen Moore, who outclasses the signal-callers at the other three schools.

5) Wisconsin

The Badgers finally get a worthy opponent this week in Nebraska, though exactly how worthy the Cornhuskers are is still in question. With the game in Madison, I expect Wisconsin to deliver a sharp “welcome to the conference” to the Huskers. But could this simply be a preview of the Big 10 title game?

6) Oklahoma State

If OSU plays the way they did in the first half against Texas A&M, they’re barely a top-25 team. If they play the way they did in the second half – when they could have scored another two touchdowns and run away with a win – the Cowboys are a legit BCS title contender. The Weedon-to-Blackmon connection is magic, and with the defense forcing turnovers like it did against the Aggies, OSU is a darkhorse.

7) Stanford

Moving the Cardinal down isn’t indicative of their play (Stanford was off last week). It’s more a sign of how good I think Oklahoma State can be, although it didn’t help that Arizona, Stanford’s best win, got pasted yet again. I do wonder about this team. I don’t think they’re as good as the 2010 version. Then again, neither is Oregon.

8) Oregon

Which team is Oregon? The one that shredded Arizona’s defense and held down its offense en route to a 35-3 lead? Or the one that gave up three unanswered touchdowns on back-to-back-to-back possessions, turning a blowout into a scary situation? The good news for the Ducks was that UO finally got the ground game going. That’s going to be crucial as their young receivers grow.

9) Clemson

Clemson’s victory over FSU was closer than it should have been, but the Tigers are still off and running at 4-0. I’ve been really impressed with this offense so far, though the defense does have some things to improve on. I jumped Clemson all the way into the top 10 because I think they’ve been much better than Virginia Tech so far this year and should beat the Hokies this week.

10) Virginia Tech

In most years, the idea of an explosive offense getting the better of VT would be ludicrous. Ever since Stanford torched Tech in last season’s Orange Bowl, though, it’s been a possibility. The Hokies have played solid defensively in 2011, but they’ve yet to face an offense half as powerful and diverse as Clemson’s. VT needs this win at home to prove that they’re still the ACC’s top dogs.

11) Texas A&M

I didn’t drop A&M too far because of the closeness of their loss. But ouch. Somehow the Aggies turned what would have been a program-boosting win over Oklahoma State into a gut-wrenching loss. If the team was hoping to make a statement in their final Big 12 season, they sent the worst message possible to the SEC: we’re soft. That was one of the worst collapses in recent memory.

12) Nebraska

Well, here you are, Nebraska. You wanted to play in a bigger, better conference. You wanted out of the Big 12, a league you never loved. You wanted to turn your nose up at your former rivals by joining the Big 10. Here’s your reward: a night game on the road against powerhouse Wisconsin. Enjoy.

13) South Carolina

What’s up with South Carolina? In the 21-3 win over hapless Vanderbilt, QB Stephen Garcia threw four picks and stud running back Marcus Lattimore was held to less than 100 yards while the offense scored just twice. If the Gamecocks keep playing like this, they’ll have no shot at a conference title.

14) Baylor

I know I’ve talked about Robert Griffin III a lot, but this is getting ridiculous. Through three games, he’s completed 85 percent of his passes. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns against just 12 incompletions. I still think of Baylor as a young, up-and-coming team that can’t beat the best Big 12 squads, but Griffin’s play is so impossibly efficient that the Bears could be dangerous.

15) South Florida

USF hasn’t exactly had to work very hard since their season-opening upset of Notre Dame. As with Boise State, though, that might not be because of the schedule. I believe the Bulls are pretty good, though we’ll see just how good once they enter Big East play. If the team is worthy of a top-15 ranking, they should dominate in this conference.

16) Georgia Tech

Ever though the teams I had ranked above Tech last week won, I still had to move the Yellow Jackets up. Shrugging off a quality challenge from North Carolina (as well as a significant matchup problem on the line), Tech kept its offense churning and burning. They should have beaten the Tar Heels by a wider margin and have emerged as a real contender in the ACC.

17) TCU

It’s hard to know what to make of TCU. On the one hand, you have a team who was tied with Portland State at 3-3 with two minutes to play before halftime. Then you have a team who scored three times in just more than a minute and went on 52-3 run through the next two-plus quarters. TCU is talented but needs to learn how to play more consistently.

18) Houston

Last week saw another highly overmatched opponent go down. No surprise, but in general my warm feeling about Houston before the season has started to cool. The Cougars’ offense should be able to play with anyone, but that doesn’t make them BCS-worthy. It seems that Houston is always in danger of laying a multi-turnover egg and going down.

19) Arizona State

That was the ASU team we should have seen against Illinois. Tough, physical and able to respond to adversity. Where previous Sun Devil teams would have left the door open for a late USC comeback, the 2011 version slammed it shut. At the least, ASU should perform great at home this year. Now it’s a matter of finding some consistency on the road.

20) Ohio State

Colorado wasn’t much of a challenge, obviously. The fact that Miami lost just a week after beating the Buckeyes stings, but the Hurricanes probably had an emotional letdown. I’m still fairly confident in this defense, which can cause major issues for the – let’s face it – somewhat impotent Big 10 attacks. Gotta get that passing game going, though.

21) Michigan

It’s been another September to remember for Michigan fans. Unfortunately, as the Wolverines have shown in the past few years, it’s not all about September. We’ll see if Big blue can continue this run once they jump into conference play. I have a feeling that the mismatched parts of the offense aren’t going to look very good when they face a decent defense.

22) Florida State

I think this is probably too low for the Seminoles. They’re 2-2, but they lost close games to a pair of very good teams. I mean, do you think FSU couldn’t beat Michigan? Ohio State? I’d bet on the ‘Noles in those games. The health of E.J. Manuel is going to be critical, though. FSU won’t hold up over the course of a season with a freshman at QB.

23) Texas

All right, Texas. If I’m going to rank you, get out there and win some games. Starting with that team who notched their first-ever win over you last year: Iowa State. And really, the Longhorns had better get this one, because the next two games – against the Oklahoma schools – could leave them battered and bruised.

24) Arkansas

Arkansas showed a little more fight early on against Bama than I expected before getting steamrolled. There’s definitely some SEC-caliber talent on this team, but I just don’t see them performing very well given their schedule. Apart from the rigors of the SEC West, the Razorbacks still have to take on Texas A&M. I guess it will be a preview of next season, eh?

25) Florida

With all the losses sustained by ranked teams, I’m willing to bring the Gators into my top 25. But their consensus number 12 poll ranking is astonishing. Is anybody watching this team? Their four wins are against teams with a combined record of 4-9 who have a single win over a BCS-conference school (the Big East's Cincinnati)! The next two games are Alabama and LSU, who I expect will put an end to this charade.

Pac-12 Thoughts

The North race has been Oregon and Stanford all along. But Saturday’s Washington-Cal game showed that it’s possible neither the Ducks nor the Cardinal will make it through the conference unscathed. The November 12^th showdown in Palo Alto should decide the division, but Oregon plays Washington the week before (in Seattle) and Stanford faces Cal the next week. From what I saw of the Bears and Huskies this weekend, they’re both ready to give a fierce challenge to the Pac-12’s top teams.

Arizona’s unfortunate schedule combined with ASU finally getting the job done against USC seemed to signal that it’s the Sun Devils’ year in the South. Starting out 0-2 in conference play really puts the Wildcats in a hole, making this week’s USC game a must-win. Utah is still out there too, but based on the Utes’ performance in their conference opener I’m not confident they’re up to the task of beating either Arizona school.

USC has obviously started a bit of a downhill slide, which is to be expected given the NCAA penalties. Can UCLA take advantage? Rick Neuheisel’s job depends on it, for good reason. If the Bruins can’t overtake their L.A. rivals in this season, when are they ever going to do it? Looking at UCLA’s schedule, I think six wins is doable. Beating WSU and Colorado at home is imperative, then if the Bruins can just beat SC and sneak out one more win, they’ll be in a bowl. But based on this season’s early returns, they’ll have to improve to make it there.

I think WSU still has a shot at a bowl as well, but a lot rides on this week’s date with Colorado. Win, and the Cougs could ride the momentum to a road victory against UCLA (whom they nearly beat last year) the following week. From there, at 4-1, WSU would need only a win over Oregon State (whom they did beat last year) in Seattle and one upset to reach the postseason. At some point QB Jeff Tuel should return as well, which would improve the Cougars’ chances down the stretch.

As far as teams counted out of bowl contention right now, I see only two for sure: Colorado and Oregon State. Colorado has a brutal schedule and isn’t very good anyway. The Beavers… well, I don’t know what’s wrong with OSU. The UCLA loss hurt.

In previous years, you could count on the Beavs to get up when they had to and beat the teams necessary to avoid letting the season spiral out of control. From 2006 onward, the OSU would rebound after tough starts, upset a couple of quality opponents, and finish the year strong. Ever since the midway point of last year, though (actually, right about the UCLA game), something has been off. The talent level of the team, never a strength, has been decimated by injuries. But OSU managed to work around that in the past. It’s anyone’s guess as to why this team has looked so bad.

Heisman* Watch

*You know how this goes.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

The competition has yet to be a roadblock, I’ll say that. But how can you not be awed by the accuracy of this guy? Given his next two opponents (K-State, Iowa State), it’s entirely possible that Griffin could continue throwing the rock at an 80 percent or better rate. That would be extraordinary.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

If you want to talk about efficiency, you can’t forget Moore. He’s up there at nearly 80 percent passing too and has a nice 12-2 TD-to-INT ratio thus far. Let’s see how he fares this week against Nevada, who gave up six TD passes to Oregon’s Darron Thomas. This could be fun to watch.

Random Thoughts and Observations

There are a couple of mid-major teams currently flying below the radar who are actually pretty good and might make a splash later in the season. Both have faced nonconference gauntlets early but both also fared well in their losses. I’m referring to Tulsa and Toledo, two teams that could very well win their respective leagues after difficult starts.

Both teams lost three times in September. Tulsa played on the road against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. The Golden Hurricane gave up a lot of points, but averaged 22 points a game themselves. Faced with their less-rigorous Conference USA slate, Tulsa could make some noise and eventually gain a national ranking. The offense – long what the Golden Hurricane have been known for – is definitely there. Additionally, Tulsa gets two of their three hardest remaining opponents (Houston and SMU) at home.

Toledo dropped games at Ohio State and Syracuse and at home versus Boise State. Although Ohio State isn’t what we thought they were, the Rockets played all of their games closer than Tulsa did. Toledo had a first down on the Buckeyes’ 15 trailing by just five at the end of the game and failed to score. As I noted earlier, the team was cheated out of a win in the Carrier Dome (a really loud stadium) this past weekend. And though the Rockets lost by 25 to Boise, the score of that game wasn’t indicative of how close it really was. Toledo had multiple turnovers in the red zone and dropped a wide-open touchdown in the second half. The MAC is easier than the Conference USA, so look out for the Rockets.