Fun in Week 1

That was a marvelous opening weekend, no? From the succession of weather delays in the Midwest to the epic TCU-Baylor finish, each hour seemed to bring new surprises. Houston-UCLA also went down to the wire, and Utah State-Auburn was exciting, if not exactly satisfying. You expect to see a lot of offense (and a lot of sloppiness) in teams’ first contests of the new season because of nerves and broken plays, but LSU taught us once again the supreme importance of defense.

I don’t want to rehash a game everyone saw, but there were many telling stats when the Cowboy Classic was finished. Particularly, despite what appeared to be second-half rushing dominance, the Tigers only averaged 3.6 yards a rush – just one-fifth of a yard more than Oregon. That’s surprising before you even get to the passing numbers, where Jarrett Lee was expectedly anemic, completing less than half his passes for fewer than a hundred yards. But the sheer dominance of the Tigers’ defensive front compensated for all of that.

Ever since Super Bowl XLII between the Patriots and Giants there has been a greater public understanding of the importance of defensive line play. The high-profile games Oregon has played in the past few seasons have further proved this point. But this has been fairly common throughout the 2000s during the rise of high-scoring spread offenses. Spread offenses of all varieties emphasize one-on-one matchups, where superior athleticism usually wins out. When an elite defense can match that athleticism, the offense is in trouble, which is a problem all spread teams eventually face. So the LSU win wasn’t exactly shocking.

I do find it interesting that Oregon fell ten spots in the AP Poll. Really? For losing to what is now allegedly the second-best team in the country? I await the result of this week’s Georgia-South Carolina game with great interest, then. The Gamecocks are ranked 12^th, whereas the Bulldogs are unranked thanks to their loss to Boise State.

Astute readers may recall that in 2007, the situations for the two teams were reversed, with Georgia holding the lofty number 11 spot in the AP while South Carolina was unranked. But lo and behold! – one upset later, South Carolina was ranked 17^th and Georgia, disgraced… fell all the way to 23^rd. So if the Bulldogs turn the tables on the Gamecocks this week (which I think might happen because I don’t have a particularly high opinion of South Carolina), where do both teams wind up in next week’s poll? Remember that these are SEC teams. Yet, if I recall, Oregon dropped from third to 13^th just by losing to second-ranked LSU. What kind of precedent does that set? Or rather, what kind of quickly-forgotten-when-it-comes-time-to-rank-SEC-teams precedent does that set? Wait and see.

Top 25

1) Alabama

Bama almost broke a sweat against Kent State. They might do so at Penn State this week, but don’t expect much. The Crimson Tide are probably going to be on cruise control until the conference schedule starts. They’ll need the rest; the SEC West is a gauntlet.

2) Oklahoma

The Sooners’ defense was better than expected against the potentially dangerous Tulsa offense. I don’t expect Oklahoma to have trouble with Florida State, but at least it’s a battle of name programs. I don’t see this going much different than it did last year.

3) LSU

OK, so LSU passed the early test. The defense really is that good. But something has to be done about the offense. Every team isn’t going to gift wrap three fumbles to the Tigers. At some point the lack of a passing threat will kill them.

4) Boise State

Oh, did a football game break out last week in Atlanta? As expected, Boise State swatted Georgia away with little difficulty, building a 21-point lead in the second half before the Bulldogs made it respectable. Next up? No one. Seriously.

5) Stanford

Oh, poor Duke. The Blue Devils are sure to give Stanford a good effort, but this has all the makings of another 68-point outburst like the one we saw at Wake Forest last year. After this game the Cardinal dive right into their Pac-12 slate, so maybe there’s trap potential here. At least, that’s what Duke should tell themselves.

6) Wisconsin

It was only UNLV… but come on, Wisconsin looked great on opening night. Russell Wilson is the perfect spice to add to the Badgers’ traditionally flavorless ground n’ pound approach, mixing in pocket poise and deft play-action ability. This could be a carbon-copy of Stanford… but with a better running game.

7) Texas A&M

Say what you will about their conference fickleness, A&M looks good on the field. The Aggies turned back a decent challenge from SMU with ease. That Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State is starting to look really interesting.

8) Virginia Tech

Tech dropped a bunch of points on Appalachian State, which earns them as much respect as you can get for beating an FCS team. I know the 2010 Auburn similarities are there, I just don’t want to give this inferior team that much credit yet.

9) Oregon

The Ducks get two weeks to lick their wounds before starting Pac-12 play. The positive from the LSU game is that UO knows they can play with anyone if they don’t beat themselves, but to win a third straight conference title they’ll have to figure out what works and what doesn’t.

10) Nebraska

Nebraska faces a couple of respectable opponents in their next two games in Fresno State and Washington. If they dominate both teams, which they are capable of doing, the Cornhuskers could be in for a special year. Even close wins would not bode well for Big 10 success.

11) Oklahoma State

I suppose I cheated a little by releasing this after the Cowboys won their second game, but I expected them to knock off Arizona anyway. This team is as explosive as ever on offense, but we’ll need to reserve judgment until the defense faces an elite offense too.

12) Florida State

FSU ground out a solid, if sluggish, win over Louisiana-Monroe. With the rematch against Oklahoma looming on the horizon, the Seminoles have to careful. Not this week against Charleston Southern, but with ACC pride on the line. It would look really bad if the league’s most highly-regarded team got hammered again.

13) Ohio State

No, beating Akron doesn’t mean the Buckeyes are going to be as good as usual. It’s the way OSU won that makes them worthy of moving up. Do you realize how hard it is to hold any team to less than a hundred yards of offense? That’s impressive.

14) Arkansas

I stand by my prediction that even with Knile Davis the Razorbacks wouldn’t have been able to win their division this year. Until they play Alabama, though, we won’t know for sure. Troy and New Mexico shouldn’t pose too much of a threat.

15) South Carolina

Moment of truth, Gamecocks. Are you the team everyone thinks you are, or the team you want to be? A statement against Georgia this week would go a long way toward proving the latter. If you can’t win this game, you don’t deserve to play for a conference title.

16) Mississippi State

If MSU can beat Auburn this week they can be taken seriously. If they beat LSU next week, it’s a whole different story. Let’s start with the easier task. Auburn is an inferior, unranked team. Beat the first group of Tigers, then we’ll talk about if this team has a shot at winning the West.

17) Arizona State

I moved the Sun Devils up because some teams ahead of them looked bad in their wins. Case in point, this week’s opponent Missouri. ASU desperately wants to be back in the top 25 spotlight and respected again. They need to win this game, or their season could unravel quickly.

18) Missouri

The 17-6 win over Miami (OH) wasn’t exactly mind-blowing. Arizona State’s defense is fast, physical, and features probably the nation’s best defensive talent in Vontaze Burfict. The beleaguered Big 12 could use this win, but I’m not about to predict a Tigers victory. They need to be ready for a battle.

19) Michigan State

I wasn’t high on Sparty to begin with, but yikes. I didn’t think MSU would get exposed this early in the year. And yes, holding a 14-6 halftime lead on Youngstown State does qualify as being exposed. The only thing that remains to be seen is whether this is the same bunch of plucky overachievers as last year or just a mid-level squad.

20) Baylor

Everyone saw it, but it bears (sorry) repeating: Did you see what Robert Griffin III did to a TCU defense? Unreal. Now, the defense is going to lose a couple games for Baylor this season, but you’ve got to think Griffin will win a couple by himself too. It was just one game, but it felt as though the Bears had finally broken through.

21) South Florida

I think Notre Dame is a good team, which makes what we saw out of USF last week very impressive. The Bulls shook off a poor defensive yards (yards-wise) and long weather delays to secure a solid win. The schedule isn’t exactly rough from here on out, so keep an eye on these guys.

22) West Virginia

Outside of a home date with LSU, the Mountaineers schedule is favorable. USF now looks like the top contender in the Big East, and the teams don’t play until the end of the season. And you never know about that LSU game… if WVU can force the Tigers’ offense into mistakes, they could make a game of it.

23) Houston

The Cougars are like Boise State, 2009. Or 2010. Or 2011. In any case, the one-game season is over for Houston after the opener against UCLA (at least BSU had the dignity to schedule some hard opponents). Houston shouldn’t play another team with their talent level until at least the Conference USA championship.

24) TCU

All is not lost for TCU, but what happened defensively against Baylor? Considering the Horned Frogs have led the nation in defense three years running. I think they’ll get it figured out. The offense also did a nice job coming back from the big deficit. TCU will be fine.

25) Utah

The opener produced a win, albeit an uninspiring one. Now the Utes get to jump right into Pac-12 play against USC. This should be fun. The Trojans were equally listless against Minnesota last week, so I’m expecting a good game. Can the Utes compete? We finally get to find out.

Pac-12 Thoughts

The Utah-USC opener is the foremost thing on the league’s mind, but the non-conference games this week will probably tell us a lot more about where this season is headed. Arizona State could announce they are for real with a win over Missouri and Oregon State could regain some pride against Wisconsin after falling last week to (gulp) Sacramento State. Arizona has already lost to Oklahoma State (no shame in that), and Washington has a huge trap game against Hawai’i. The conference’s reputation is at stake in many of these games after Oregon’s loss to LSU. It would be helpful if the Pac-12 could look good this week.

Heisman Watch

Because Andrew Luck is the best player in the country, this is a moot discussion. However, I am nothing if not fair, so I’ve decided to make a new award this year called the “wHo’s the bEst player who ISn’t Andrew Luck-MAN.” In this blog it will be referred too as simply the “Heisman,” with the understanding that Luck is by definition, ineligible. With that said…

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

It’s a short list thus far, but it will expand as the year goes on. Griffin’s performance against TCU will go down in Baylor lore, and it announced him to the nation as a superstar. I look forward to seeing him in 2011; let’s pray he can stay healthy.

Random Thoughts and Observations

You can’t blame the SEC for taking the next step, though you can still blame Texas A&M for forcing their hand. As you should all be aware at this point, the conference has agreed to let A&M in if they just stop their whining. That’s more or less what the SEC said. There’s also this bit about how the Aggies have to make sure nobody in the Big 12 wants to sue them for leaving after every school in the conference signed a decade-long deal to stay together last summer.

This has all set off a wonderfully ridiculous and completely hilarious round of posturing and faux-indignation from Texas A&M and the various parties that would be must hurt by the breakup of the Big 12, including Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor, though in reality we’re really just talking about Baylor. The Bears stand the most (or tied for the most) to lose if they don’t have Oklahoma and Texas to hold them up in a major conference any longer. Rather than take it on the chin and go to the Mountain West, the school has moved in its best interest to try to block Texas A&M from leaving, or at least milking them of some cash if they go.

Both parties have valid arguments. I’m inclined to side with Baylor, but the most amusing thing about this debacle is Texas A&M’s bizarre theory that the school would be better off in the SEC, both “culturally” and “competitively.” How’s that again?

Culturally I can sort of buy, although I don’t see how playing against the SEC West is so different than playing the other Texas schools. Let’s be honest about the “culture” argument – A&M doesn’t like Texas and wants to get away. Part of the Aggies’ secession faction keeps repeating that Texas broke the Big 12’s agreement to hold the conference together by taking unequal revenue (plus the Longhorn Network), thereby dissolving any obligations Texas A&M has to the league. That’s somewhat true, but the problem is that the Aggies STILL signed on for the new Big 12. And as I recall, Texas invited Texas A&M to share in the LHN... and they refused.

However, that’s actually the stronger part of the argument, because the “competition” argument is so ludicrous you have to wonder whether the SEC West schools are behind it all to grab themselves an easier division foe. Texas A&M has one conference title in the Big 12 era, back in 1998. The Aggies have played in just two Big 12 championship games total (1997 was the other). They’ve been passed and dwarfed by the accomplishments of Texas and Oklahoma, they’re 1-9 in their last 10 bowl games, and they’re three games over .500 in the past decade. This ain’t the old Southwest Conference, guys. You’re not a powerhouse anymore.

To end on a lighter note, Oklahoma is now reportedly reconsidering their standing Pac-12’s invite. Curiously, the Sooners are reportedly the only Big 12 school that has not waived their right to sue Texas A&M. Why would that be? Perhaps because they don’t want to look like hypocrites when they announce for a new conference at some point this season?

We’ve been over this before, but Oklahoma joining the Pac-12 and A&M jumping to the SEC would set off another round of conference shakeups. As both leagues have said they would prefer to expand their respective TV and recruiting footprints in moving to 16-team superconferences, I believe things would end up looking like this:

Pac-16

(With renamed divisions, placing the old Pac-8 schools together in the West and the new schools, collectively referred to as the “heathen outsiders,” in the East)

West

Cal

Oregon

Oregon State

Stanford

UCLA

USC

Washington

Washington State

East

Arizona

Arizona State

Colorado

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State (OU’s obvious moving buddy)

Texas (LHN is an issue, but a workable one)

Texas Tech (The “hey, why not?” team)

Utah

SEC

(The division names should hold up fine if the right teams are taken)

West

Alabama

Arkansas

Auburn

LSU

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Missouri (A good fit for the region)

Texas A&M

East

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

Louisville (Rival for WVU, Kentucky)

South Carolina

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

West Virginia (The Big East’s best)

West Virginia and Louiville might seem like odd additions, but there are reasons to choose them. For West Virginia, it’s that the SEC gets what is clearly the best and most consistent Big East team. For Louisville, I like it because there are already established rivalries with West Virginia and Kentucky. However, these schools also fit because of the lack of strings attached to them. For example, Virginia Tech, who would obviously be the best choice among all the east coast schools. But Tech is in a standing package deal with Virginia, who nobody really cares much about. Georgia Tech is a candidate, but the Yellow Jackets are solidly acclimated to the ACC, particularly as a basketball school. Miami and Florida are both power schools, but the SEC already has a team in the state and is looking to expand. The remaining options are fairly unsavory, such as USF (already in Florida, no history), Baylor (absolutely no way) or UCF (see USF).

So that’s where we stand after week one. The season’s just begun and already there’s universal madness. May the best team win.