The long and winding road... begins

The unexpected broke out on Saturday, the result of another day in college football land. LSU played its best game of the year and upset South Carolina. Oklahoma hammered Texas in record-breaking fashion. West Virginia went down in flames in Lubbock. Notre Dame… withstood, shall we say, a tough challenge from Stanford. Oregon State put together its most complete performance on the road at BYU. To cap off the night, Ohio State and Texas A&M survived video-game shootouts

Through it all, there was Alabama, predictably chugging along with another dominant effort against Missouri. It’s telling that I saw the 21-0 first-half lead, shrugged, and changed the channel. Oregon was off but returns this Thursday to face upstart Arizona State, a game that could demonstrate how both teams will fare down the stretch.

Florida was the weekend’s big winner, even though the actual game the Gators played against Vanderbilt was more than a little dicey. The fact that many people suspect Texas A&M might be frauds meant LSU was the only win for Florida to hang its hat on. A Tigers loss to South Carolina would have been very deflating. Now that LSU beat the Gamecocks, though, that win looks really good. The Gators still have to beat Carolina themselves, but obviously the BCS thinks highly of their schedule.

As for the initial BCS rankings, everything that ESPN’s team said was true. It’s surprising that Florida was ahead of Oregon at number two, but it means nothing long-term because Florida would play Alabama in the SEC championship anyway. That is, if they get there – and that’s a big if with both the Gamecocks and Georgia still on the ticket.

The major controversy of the week came from South Bend, where Notre Dame beat Stanford by keeping the Cardinal out of the endzone in overtime. Anyone who isn’t an Irish homer – looking at you, Lou Holtz – saw that Stepfan Taylor did in fact score, but the officials (a Pac-12 crew!) ruled otherwise. It was the wrong call, which is unfortunate for Stanford. However, it’s also worth noting that the Cardinal should have had the game wrapped up in regulation by scoring a touchdown on their final offensive possession. When they settled for three points, they gave the sputtering Notre Dame offense a chance to equalize. The Irish took full advantage.

In other contender news, Oregon State shook off a rugged BYU team to jump to 5-0. When you consider where this program has been the past two years, this is amazing. When you add in the extenuating circumstances – on the road, with a backup quarterback – it becomes almost unbelievable. What was so wrong with the Beavers last year that kept them from playing like this? More on OSU in the Pac-12 section.

This week there are a few early rivalry games along with some quality conference race action: Oregon at ASU in a show-me contest; LSU at Texas A&M; The Big Game (that’s Stanford-Cal for the rubes); South Carolina at Florida; BYU at Notre Dame in the Religious Schools Everyone Else Hates Bowl; Michigan State – Michigan; Alabama and Tennessee; Kansas State – West Virginia, and Florida State at Miami (FL).

Top 25

1) Alabama

The Crimson Tide leaped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead on Mizzou despite monsoon conditions, then cruised the rest of the way. A.J. McCarron appears to be fine and schedule is still fairly easy. Tennessee should be no challenge this week and Mississippi State is a top-15 team only to people who have never watched football before.

2) Oregon

The schedule is weaker than Florida’s, but that’s the case for most teams, including ‘Bama. Analysts agree that Oregon has looked far more impressive through six games than the Gators. Now the real work begins: in the Ducks’ remaining six games they will play at least four, if not five, bowl-bound teams. ASU could be tricky on Thursday night.

3) Florida

The Gators have defied my (and analysts’) expectations to this point. The question is, can they handle prosperity? The next two weeks against South Carolina and Georgia will make or break the season and determine the East champion. Thanks to fortuitous scheduling (what a surprise), Florida plays its next five games at home. Even so, I don’t know if they’re good enough to go 8-0 in-conference.

4) Kansas State

Put simply, K-State was lucky to escape Farmageddon. Not unlike Florida, the Wildcats have only the barest hint of a passing game. Not even their superhuman level of pluck will be able to get them to 12-0 if that can’t improve. At some point, this team will be down and need to throw the ball. They haven’t shown yet that they can do it.

5) Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish defense is, without a doubt, top-notch. The offense is absolutely horrendous. There’s plenty to complain about with the game-ending call that went against Stanford, but the team honestly has to be more concerned with its own scoring. Teams with better offenses than Stanford’s remain on the Irish’s schedule.

6) LSU

From the first six games of the season, you really wouldn’t have thought LSU could play with South Carolina. Nevertheless, the Tigers did what good teams should be able to: win at home against other good teams. I’m still skeptical (to say the least) of the offense, but it probably won’t be as big an issue as people think. Texas A&M and Mississippi State aren’t nearly as talented and Alabama is a wash.

7) Oregon State

Somehow this team managed to plug in a completely green backup quarterback and get a brilliant performance and a road win. Thank the offensive line, which has come light years since the disasters of 2010 and 2011. There are certainly more talented teams than the Beavers on the schedule, but we’ll have to give OSU credit until someone proves they can beat them.

8) South Carolina

To be honest, I wouldn’t take Oregon State over Carolina head-to-head. Too bad; the Gamecocks just lost. This squad’s ranking is in limbo until next week after the Florida game. It’s possible Georgia was just really overrated, in which case we’ll need to reevaluate this whole SEC thing.

9) Oklahoma

Where has that OU team been? Texas’ defense had struggled relative to its talent level, yes, but that could be explained by the fact that the Longhorns had previously played Okie State and West Virginia. Not so much after what Oklahoma did. The Sooners gained 677 yards and didn’t allow a point to UT’s offense until there was less than five minutes to play. Now we need to see OU build from this.

10) USC

An ugly, ugly win in Seattle for the Trojans. Just like in the Stanford game, SC was shut out in the second half and put up only two offensive touchdowns. This simply can’t continue for the Trojans to have any hope at all for a Pac-12 title. This team has one more contest (at Arizona) before the showdown with Oregon. They’d better use it well.

11) Florida State

If the Seminoles keep their focus, a 12-win season is more than doable. That’s the thing, though: focus. Teams like Duke, Maryland and Boston College this past week have no business playing with FSU. Neither did North Carolina State. It wouldn’t even shock me if the ‘Noles beat Florida in the finale, but they’ll have to show up and act like they want it.

12) Ohio State

Well, that was a little bizarre. Give the Buckeyes credit for scoring half a hundred, but really? Indiana? OSU twice had an 18-point fourth-quarter lead on the Hoosiers, yet needed to recover an onsides kick in the final seconds to escape. I’d say this team is headed for a fall, but the Big Ten schedule is, fortunately, rather forgiving.

13) Georgia

You don’t fool me, Georgia. Taking a bye right after getting punched in the mouth so everyone forgets about you won’t work. Ostensibly the Bulldogs were preparing for Kentucky this week, but it seems more likely they had their next foe (Florida) on their minds. Good thing, because with the defense the Gators have been playing, next week could feel like South Carolina all over again.

14) Clemson

The close win over Auburn now looks really, really bad. Still, it’s hard to imagine few (if any) of the remaining teams on the schedule posing much of a threat for the Tigers. I’m curious about the defense, considering the points this team has allowed in its last three games. The offense remains the flashy sports car of the ACC.

15) Texas Tech

Yes, Texas Tech has always been able to score, but come on. What in the world happened Saturday in Lubbock? The Red Raiders have only the one loss to Oklahoma right now and beat Iowa State much more convincingly than KSU did. In the deep Big 12, Tech suddenly appears to be a team capable of making some noise.

16) West Virginia

After watching WVU a few times, it was obvious the defense was going to get the Mountaineers killed at some point. I just think most people didn’t see it happening against Texas Tech, or in that fashion. The perfect storm of horribleness in Lubbock flattened the ‘Eers title dreams. That doesn’t mean they can’t knock off K-State next week.

17) Louisville

Not a bad win, not a great win over Pitt this week. The final score was misleading, but I still have doubts about how good these Big East teams are. Louisville’s best win is over North Carolina. We might not really know until bowl season, because the Cardinals could run the table without facing a real top-25 team.

18) Texas A&M

The offensive numbers are impressive, to be sure. But it’s still unclear how much we know about this squad. The FBS foes they’ve played who are not Florida average a rating of 85^th in the country in scoring defense. Against Florida, the Aggies put up 17. That doesn’t bode well with LSU coming to town.

19) Boise State

Boise’s competition to this point hasn’t been as bad as major-conference snobs would have you believe, so the 5-1 record is a decent achievement. The good news is that while the Broncos have had trouble scoring, the schedule gets a lot easier in the second half of the season. Four of the next five opponents have one win each.

20) Stanford

Not really a drop, seeing as the Cardinal didn’t really lose. That said, they’ll lose a game for real this week if they don’t get over the Notre Dame call and get ready for Cal. That would have sounded ludicrous a few weeks ago, but the Bears are on an upswing and at home. With both Oregon schools lurking in November, Stanford can’t afford a slip-up.

21) Arizona State

The schedule has been weak. But at 5-1 (even with the loss coming at the hands of Mizzou), ASU should be ranked. And to be honest, even taking the opponents into consideration, the Sun Devils have passed the eye test far more than Cincinnati or Ohio (though I am a supporter of the Bobcats).

22) Mississippi State

I’ll toss them a ranking, but in no way is this the nation’s number twelve team. The best win was against Tennessee last week and the Bulldogs only won by 10 points! Fortunately for the SEC, MSU scheduled brilliantly and plays another patsy this week before facing three straight ranked teams. This ride’s going to be over real soon.

23) Oklahoma State

According to the BCS, Okie State’s next six opponents are ranked. That’s a bit of a leap, considering that the list includes Iowa State and TCU. Even with injury concerns, I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to see the Cowboys winning the next two games – both at home – before playing Kansas State.

24) Rutgers

My gut tells me Rutgers is probably better than Louisville. The Scarlet Knights certainly aren’t bad; they’re third in the country in scoring defense, after all. But the schedule is really weak – Rutgers’ three Big East wins came against teams with one combined league win themselves. The Knights are 6-0 but remain untested.

25) Ohio

The Penn State win is looking decent now, but since the beginning of the season the Bobcats have won four FBS games by a total of 19 points. They’re living on the edge, a place that can be dangerous in the very parity-heavy MAC. Ohio is one of only two 7-0 teams, though.

Pac-12 Report

I really thought I had Mike Riley figured out. My point of view that he was a good coach never wavered. In 2010 and 2011 I assumed the Beavers would eventually turn things around like they always did, long after they had given me reason to do so. I got burned both times, part of the reason why I was so down on OSU to begin this season. Reasonably, how could a 3-9 team get not only to bowl eligibility but into conference championship contention in less than one year?

Riley has always done more with less than just about any coach in the country, but he’s not a miracle worker. Seeing Oregon State come back to earth the past two seasons seemed to indicate he might need to change his philosophy a bit to keep up with the surging Oregons and Stanfords of the football world. What’s so impressive is that Riley rebounded his way, staying true to his own style and putting the Beavers back where they were at the end of the last decade.

Before the BYU game, I would have likely said the Beavers’ schedule allowed for a 10-win season if everything went right, which it has so far. After they dispatched a pretty good Cougars team, it’s a lot harder to figure. OSU misses USC this year (although considering how badly the Trojans have played in Corvallis, that may be a bad thing). Utah this week is a gimme. Nicholls State is too… provided the Beavers don’t play in the Pac-12 championship game.

The road isn’t easy. Even at .500, Washington is no cakewalk in Seattle. Playing at Stanford later on is also tough, though to this point OSU has really been the better team. The home games are Utah, ASU, Cal and Oregon. We still don’t know about the Sun Devils and Cal is a mystery. Both could turn out to be big challenges or laughers. The Ducks are the only team I would take straight up against the Beavers right now. And the Civil War is in Corvallis. I really don’t know where this team will finish.

That’s actually the case with a few Pac-12 teams. 3-3 teams Arizona and Washington face off in a huge battle Saturday with a ton on the line. Both schools need a confidence-boosting win and a good start to the second half of the season. Even though there’s a lot of time left, bowl eligibility is realistically on the line in this game. Having to win three of five to end the season is much more difficult getting two wins, especially if you’re already 3-4.

The other question mark is Cal, who fought back to 3-4 after a horrendous start to the year. The North race seemed to be down to Oregon, OSU and Stanford, but the Bears can still play a role (and win it, but that’s unlikely) because they have yet to play all three of those teams. That makes Utah and UW must-wins – and forces Cal to beat at least one ranked team to reach the postseason.

The fates of WSU, Colorado and Utah have basically been decided – none will be bowling this year. The South still potentially has three contenders, but another loss would all but eliminate UCLA. That means it’s down to Arizona State and USC. We’ll know just how close the race will be Thursday after the Oregon game. With the Trojans looking shaky, a Sun Devils win against the Ducks might make them the favorite.

Of the five conference games this week, there are two probable blowouts (Colorado – USC and Utah – OSU) and three possible tight games (Oregon – ASU, Stanford – Cal and Washington – Arizona). UCLA and WSU are off, so next week will be the first time this season all 12 league members will play each other on the same day. Speaking of the 12 in Pac-12, it would really be nice if Utah and Colorado stopped being more than dead weight.

Heisman Watch

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

WVU melted down in Lubbock and Smith threw more incompletions than he had all season. He still hasn’t thrown a pick, though, and Saturday’s loss was about so much more than him. The gap might have narrowed, but the fact that there isn’t even a consensus second or third player on the list tells you all you need to know.

Random Thoughts and Observations

When I heard that current Arkansas State coach Gus Malzahn was being hired away from the offensive coordinator position at Auburn last year, my initial thought was, “Gene Chizik: fired in five years.” He’s not getting that long. His record at Auburn was already sketchy at best when you remove the games involving top-10 picks Cam Newton and Nick Fairley. Saturday’s three-touchdown loss to Ole Miss dropped the Tigers to 1-5 and removed all doubt as to who’s the worst team in the SEC West. At Iowa State Chizik was 5-19 in two seasons; nothing in his career suggests he has any business continuing to coach at this level. But Lane Kiffin keeps getting work.

Before the season I opined that if Notre Dame was to go 12-0 with the daunting schedule they faced, the Irish should be in the BCS title game. That’s a position that was echoed by many analysts. However, with the way the season has played out, it’s hard to make that argument any longer. Oklahoma and USC, the two marquee opponents, have both been underwhelming, and Kansas State took some of the wind out of ND’s blowout of Miami (FL) by doing the same thing weeks earlier. That’s not to say the Irish couldn’t get to championship at 12-0, but they no longer have a leg up on the other potential undefeated teams they once did. Not playing a 13^th game may also hurt them.