College > NFL, but not really

We haven’t seen a week like that in a while. Five undefeated teams went down and others had their slight hopes extinguished in painful losses. Most shocking was USC’s defeat at the hands of Arizona, but Oklahoma’s loss at home to Notre Dame – after being favored by double digits – was surprising as well. Strangely, Saturday saw the second straight week an undefeated Big East team lost to a MAC squad.

The biggest shakeup as far as the BCS was concerned, though, was Florida’s loss to Georgia. It essentially removed the Gators from the conference and BCS championship race, barring a major upset for the Bulldogs. This is good news from a football standpoint because Florida looked completely undeserving of a title, but it seems unfair that they’ve been eliminated after one close loss.

Oregon State also went down in a hail of awful passes, igniting a quarterback controversy in Corvallis and showing for the first time this season that the Beavers might possibly regress to a mean somewhere between last year’s 3-9 debacle and this season’s 6-0 start. Most fans probably weren’t expecting a BCS title run anyway, but with Stanford and Oregon looming the loss to Washington was one OSU could little afford.

One of the other OSU’s, Ohio State, remained undefeated with a workmanlike win over Penn State. The Buckeyes are now 9-0 and ineligible for the postseason. Arrogantly taking that Gator Bowl appearance last season seems like a good tradeoff now, doesn’t it? Maybe if OSU hadn’t baited the NCAA like that they would have gotten off easier. But I digress.

The important point to take from Saturday was that the BCS championship discussion has been severely whittled down to a small handful of schools. Five (eligible) undefeateds remain, with Louisville way on the outside looking in. Unless craziness like the 2007 season breaks out, the BCS championship will in all likelihood involve some combination of Alabama, Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame… or LSU.

Ah, LSU. The Tigers, despite featuring an offense that aspires to the pace of the noble tortoise, have crawled back into the chase thanks to wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M. In typically underhanded SEC fashion, they even took a bye before facing Alabama this week. The Crimson Tide have been far more impressive to this point, but you never know what will happen in Baton Rouge. That’s not an easy place to play. With a win, LSU would position itself to be the first one-loss team in title talks.

We’ll know more after this week, when a slate of good matchups makes things even clearer. Oklahoma State is at Kansas State, Arizona State heads to Oregon State and Arizona plays at UCLA. Then there are the two big ‘uns: Oregon at USC and Alabama – LSU. Remaining contender Notre Dame gets Pitt.

Top 25

1) Kansas State

Top of the pops for at least one week, though that will change if Oregon and ‘Bama win. KSU is definitely good, but aside from their past two games they’ve not shown nearly the level of dominance those teams have. With Oklahoma losing to Notre Dame, the Wildcats’ marquee win is also a bit tarnished.

2) Alabama

The Tide don’t get a boost from beating Mississippi State because anyone with a brain knows the Bulldogs are garbage. I would have dropped Alabama if the score had been remotely close. With a win over LSU this team will move back up to number one where it belongs.

3) Oregon

Beating Colorado impresses no one. The good news is the weak part of the schedule is over. Even after a second loss, USC is dangerous; Stanford and Oregon State are no pushovers either. Depending on how good the Ducks really are, they could blow out their final four opponents… or lose to all of them (Cal included).

4) Notre Dame

Give credit to Everett Golson and the Fighting Irish defense. Both played simply superb, mistake-free football to beat Oklahoma. That’s what Notre Dame needs to win games, because they’re not as talented as the rest of the unbeatens. This team is 8-0 but could easily be 5-3.

5) LSU

Just like in 2007, LSU seems to be one of those teams that keep hanging around long after its hopes should have been dead and buried. Nothing we’ve seen this season remotely indicates the Tigers should be able to play with ‘Bama, but wouldn’t it be just like LSU to play one good half of offense and pull out an ugly win?

6) Florida State

Not totally convinced, but four teams ahead of the Seminoles lost. To be fair, FSU would be undefeated right now if not for one of their trademark mental lapses in the second half against NCSU. There are a lot of teams I’d pick the ‘Noles to beat on a neutral field. Some of them are undefeated.

7) Ohio State

It’s time to accept the fact that OSU is probably going to go 12-0. Too bad for the Buckeyes, though perhaps it’s a saving grace that they’re not eligible to get throttled in the postseason by some SEC, Pac-12 or Big 12 squad. The Big Ten is just atrocious, so the record doesn’t say much.

8) Florida

Huh. I dislike when teams win without any offensive ability, but I kind of thought the Gators were in the clear once they got past South Carolina and LSU. The defense did its part against Georgia, but for once sense prevailed in the SEC and a team’s complete QB ineptitude actually hurt it.

9) Clemson

Too high for these Tigers, but there will be room in the next few weeks to move them around depending on other results. Some of the teams I have below Clemson would probably beat them. However, those teams have much uglier losses. Right now this team should be rewarded for having just one close defeat.

10) South Carolina

Carolina moved back up because Georgia looked better on Saturday. Still, there’s no denying that the Gamecocks have looked terrible lately. Losing Marcus Lattimore again is devastating and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team lose again. Beating Tennessee by three is a joke.

11) Oklahoma State

I keep sayin’ it and no one believes! How is Oklahoma State unranked in the media poll? The Cowboys are 5-2, with losses only to other ranked teams. I don’t expect them to go in and beat K-State this week, but they’re a good team. This poll situation is bizarre beyond all reason.

12) Louisville

Well… the Cincinnati game was illuminating, and not in a good way. The Big East is clearly as bad as ever and the Cardinals were fortunate to pull out a win. They may yet go undefeated, but they’ll certainly never get enough respect to move higher than the Orange or Sugar Bowl.

13) Georgia

The Bulldogs just got their biggest win of the season and I still have them outside the top 10. That’s because I have eyes. Georgia has played one decent – decent! – game this season. It just happened to come against a highly ranked Florida team. Unless UGA can follow this up with something impressive, my feelings on them won’t change.

14) Oregon State

Oof. I had just started to believe, Beavers! To be fair, OSU is clearly a better team than Washington. The Beavs picked a bad time to start the wrong QB and it cost them. ASU now looks a little dicey this week. This team could still play in the Rose Bowl, so they can’t let up.

15) USC

Went back and worth on where SC deserved to be. The Trojans have played some very uninspiring football this year. Nevertheless, they remain supremely talented and could very well ruin Oregon’s season this week by taking down the Ducks at home. It completely depends on them.

16) Oklahoma

Just wow, Oklahoma. It’s really hard to get down on a program that has been elite as consistently as OU, but YOU SHOULD BE BETTER THAN THIS! How the Sooners let an offense half a century behind the times (in ability, not scheme – Brian Kelly called a great game) beat them is beyond me. Who knows where OU will finish this year.

17) Texas Tech

I was high on the Red Raiders. Then, just like with West Virginia, Kansas State happened. The first half saw T-Tech blow opportunities. The second half saw them blown off the field. It would appear that this team is part of an ever-growing collection of above-average, but not great, Big 12 teams.

18) Texas A&M

You get style points but not substance points for blowing out woeful Auburn. A&M rebounded sharply from the LSU disappointment and now they get reeling Mississippi State. I doubt MSU can handle Johnny Football or outscore A&M. All signs point to a big win for the Aggies, but I’ve been wrong before. Once.

19) West Virginia

WVU got a week off to cope with the back-to-back hammerings they were dealt. How will they respond? Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU are still on the schedule. It may eventually look ludicrous that we could have considered the ‘Eers a contender. I’d be surprised if they fell that far, though.

20) Arizona

RichRod notched his first big win, Matt Scott outdueled Matt Barkley and the ‘Cats moved to just one game back in the South. If only Arizona had beat OSU and Stanford! This team still might play for the Pac-12 title. All they need to control their destiny is for Oregon to beat USC. By the way, I believe I called that Ka’Deem Carey was really good.

21) Boise State

Looked some more at their schedule and had to drop the Broncos. There are just too many good teams that deserve to be ranked above them. The bizarreness that is the BCS could make this pedestrian squad a major-bowl team. I hope it doesn’t come to that, even if BSU is owed one by the system.

22) Stanford

That stinky seven-point win over WSU didn’t do much to inspire confidence. ‘Furd keeps winning, but they can’t blame this mess on the refs. Of the remaining games that aren’t Colorado (this week), how many more wins are the Cardinal picking up? Oregon, OSU and UCLA? That’s a rugged road.

23) Nebraska

I expected the Cornhuskers to come through and they did. Most of the heavy lifting is over, though getting a win over Michigan State this week would go a long way. Given that Michigan will likely lose again to Ohio State the Huskers have some wiggle room, but they could make things easier on themselves by just winning out.

24) UCLA

Close win over ASU, but it was on the road. The Bruins have taken some nice steps this season and remain in control of their conference fate. A fantastic South division showdown with Arizona looms large this week. UCLA is at home and could inject some real excitement into the Jim Mora era with a win.

25) Toledo

The Rockets haven’t beat anyone, but I retain a soft spot for mid-majors, especially ones who beat AQ schools. The only loss was the opener at Arizona, which looks pretty good right now. The top of the MAC is shaping up to be solid this year and Toledo looks to be at the top.

Pac-12 Report

The conference didn’t do itself any favors this week, with Arizona ending USC’s fleeting title hopes and Washington ending Oregon State’s undefeated season. UW is now the nation’s leading candidate for schizophrenic team of the year, though their pattern is actually pretty simple: play great defense at home, fail to show up on the road. Regardless, it was a huge win for a team badly needing one. The Huskies hadn’t won since their massive upset of Stanford a month ago.

I was this close to writing Washington off after that humiliating blowout in the desert dropped them to 3-4. Now it appears the team will likely make another bowl, needing only two more wins from a schedule of bottom-feeders composed of Cal, Utah, Colorado and WSU. Three of the four are on the road… but 8-4 is within reach.

To be sure, USC and OSU’s stumbles were painful for the Pac-12, but it was Stanford who almost made the week an utter disaster by losing to Wazzu. The Cardinal needed a defensive touchdown to escape the Cougars at home. They get a reprieve this week with Colorado, then host Oregon State before road games at Oregon and UCLA to end the season. 0-3 is a possibility.

Obviously there’s a lot of disappointment in Corvallis this week. The Beavers beat themselves against an inferior opponent, which is almost unheard of in the Mike Riley era and hadn’t happened yet this season. Well, the Beavs had better pick themselves up and get ready for Arizona State, because the Sun Devils can absolutely beat them as well if OSU can’t fix the offense.

Riley has already made the QB switch back to Cody Vaz, which became painfully obvious was the right choice about halfway though last week’s game in Seattle. What’s done is done, though. OSU has to recognize the Rose Bowl is still within reach if they win out, even if they don’t beat Oregon. They have to start by winning this week.

The South division is now in complete disarray following Arizona’s big win over USC, with three teams now in control of their own fate. The Wildcats aren’t far behind; if Oregon knocks off the Trojans this week ‘Zona will play in the Pac-12 championship by winning out. Of course, they’ll have to get by UCLA first, whom they visit this week in another giant divisional showdown.

The Bruins are coming off their biggest league win to date, outlasting ASU in a desert classic. This team has really looked good under Jim Mora, but I do wonder if they may have just caught some breaks/some teams at the right time. None of the Bruins' final four games are gimmes, even Wazzu, so this Arizona game is critical.

The ASU – OSU and Arizona – UCLA games are both important, but everyone knows which conference game the national eye falls on this week. It’s finally here! And USC completely failed to take care of business! Unfortunately, the Oregon – USC matchup was tarnished before September was out, but I held out hope that a one-loss Trojan squad could represent the “redemption” storyline in this game. Alas, even that wasn’t meant to be, as SC fell last week at Arizona. Now it’s all about whether Oregon’s season will be ruined.

USC has essentially looked exactly the same as I predicted before the season: highly talented on offense and extremely flawed overall. The Trojans can score on anyone and have the potential to play with any team, but they’re poorly coached, sloppy, penalty-prone, poorly coached, inconsistent, and poorly coached. Also, they’re poorly coached. Remember that.

SC has a lot of talent but doesn’t look anything like a complete team.  This is because, as I said in August, they’re just not that good. I was baffled by the predictions that had them going undefeated, because they played all of about four good games in 2011. The hot finish to the season fooled everyone, though, and the message was, “USC is back!” No, they’re not. And the 6-2 record proves that.

However, that does not mean the Trojans are incapable of beating Oregon this week. On the contrary, Duck fans should be very worried. USC is a better team than Arizona and beat themselves, so they’ll probably be much sharper against the team they were clearly looking ahead to this week. If the Trojans’ offense plays the way it did last year at Autzen, it will mean trouble. If UO’s numbers really are inflated by its weak schedule, it will mean trouble. If freshman QB Marcus Mariota struggles in his toughest road test to date, it will mean trouble. Oregon has everything to lose and SC has everything to gain in this contest.

I have watched both teams extensively this year. Oregon has, without a doubt, been the better team. Even if they lose, they’re probably the better team. But the better team doesn’t always win, particularly in college football. Oregon should be very, very wary of the Trojans, who are fighting for their postseason (conference championship) lives.

Heisman Watch

Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

With Geno Smith M.I.A., this has suddenly become a one-man field. Look, I like Manti Te’o and Jarvis Jones, who both made great defensive plays last week to seal wins for their respective teams. But really? THIS is the year we’re going to give the Heisman to a defensive player? When Ndamukong Suh, the most dominant defensive player of at least the past decade, got beat out by freaking Mark Ingram? Let’s use our brains here.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I cursed Kent State for their upset of Rutgers last week. The Golden Flashes were a team I had my eye on and a big reason why I was skeptical of Ohio’s chances of going unbeaten. The Bobcats lost anyway, but I was looking forward to calling that upset and looking smart down the road. Now I'll just look like a bandwagon type.

Speaking of Kent State, the Golden Flashes are now the national leaders in turnover margin. If ever the importance of turnover margin was in doubt, this should erase that thought: the top six teams in the country in that category – Kent State, Louisiana Tech, Alabama, Kansas State, Ohio and Mississippi State (the leaders until last week) – have a combined four losses.

Notre Dame does have reason to be worried about its ranking. Despite even 8-0 records for Oregon, Alabama, KSU and the Irish, voters have taken notice of the many close escapes. Against FBS schools with winning records, Oregon averages 47 points per game, Kansas State averages 40 and Alabama averages 36. Notre Dame averages 25. So there’s correlation between on-field results and polling position.

And in the interception derby, only Louisiana Tech and Alabama have yet to throw a pick this season. Who will be the last team standing? It would be very impressive if Alabama could navigate the SEC without an interception, particularly with LSU on deck.

Steve Spurrier this week brought up the age-old notion that a great college team (in this case Alabama) could beat the NFL's worst team. It's not surprising; every time a program has a few really great years in a row someone drags this argument out. The same thing happened to USC in the mid-2000's. The problem is that it's absurd. Just as almost everyone on a Division-1 college football team was a high school star, nearly everybody on an NFL roster was a very good collegiate player. The idea that a team of 18-to-22-year-olds could actually compete - or even defeat - a roster of professional players whose job it is to train for and play football is ludicrous. The best team in the country would be flattened by any NFL team. End of story.