What's in a win?

Considering they all went undefeated, the top four teams in the BCS couldn’t have provided much more entertainment this past weekend. The strengths and weaknesses of Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame were all on display Saturday. It was a fascinating look into how each team got to this point as well as how each one could be defeated.

Notre Dame provided the first drama, coming back from a two-touchdown deficit to break Pittsburgh’s heart. The Fighting Irish needed break after break to stay alive and eventually win the game in triple overtime. But what else is new? This team has lived on the edge all season. There’s a reason the Irish are a solid fourth in the polls.

Kansas State jumped out to a nice lead on Oklahoma State, then weathered the storm the rest of the way after Collin Klein’s injury. His status is the most important topic of the week – few believe K-State can stay undefeated without their senior warrior at the helm – though fortunately it appears Klein might be all right.

Oregon had an early 18-point margin on USC, then had to match the Trojans blow-for-blow as both teams abandoned defense entirely. It was a strange, hard-to-believe night at the Coliseum. That type of effort won’t get the Ducks to the BCS title game, even though the offense was basically perfect from snap one.

Alabama then capped off a dramatic afternoon and evening by throwing together one drive when it counted after getting beat up by LSU all game long. For the first time the Crimson Tide looked vulnerable, but they also showed for the first time that they have the kind of mettle championship teams require.

Any other news seemed somewhat superfluous, though there were other interesting and important games. We know at this point roughly which teams will be involved in the national title game but there is still a lot at stake as far as conference championships are concerned. Saturday saw the heat turned up in the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big East races.

Nebraska’s thrilling win over Michigan State gave the Cornhuskers the margin of error they need to likely wrap up the Legends division. With winnable games against Iowa and Minnesota to end the season and a probable future Michigan loss to Ohio State, Nebraska can now afford to stumble this week against Penn State. If they win, they’ll have all but punched their ticket to Indianapolis.

The Leaders division, however, just got very interesting. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible, the only two teams left are Wisconsin and Indiana, who both control their own destiny. The Badgers still have to play the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions; the Hoosiers get PSU and Purdue. That means if Indiana beats Wisconsin this weekend, they’ll probably only need to beat woeful Purdue to get into the Big Ten Championship.

Cincinnati stayed alive in the Big East with a win over Syracuse, while Rutgers and Louisville continued their runs through the league by remaining unbeaten. The Cardinals and Scarlet Knights don’t play until the end of the season, so this BCS bid could very well come down to the final week of football. Regardless of its quality, it’s undeniable that the Big East race is entertaining.

The Pac-12 also holds a game with a lot of weight this week. A strong win over Arizona State has put Oregon State in position to claim the title of “Biggest Threat to Oregon” – that is, if the Beavers can beat Stanford on Saturday. Both teams have just one conference loss, so this game sets up as a semifinal for the North division championship before they both meet Oregon in the following two weeks. Good stuff.

The Pac-12 South also took an interesting turn this week when UCLA blew out Arizona. Coupled with USC’s loss to Oregon, this win vaulted the Bruins into the division lead with just three games to play. The Battle for Los Angeles has now taken on a ton of meaning for the first time since 2005. More on the Pac-12 later.

Top 25

1) Alabama

It’s amazing that Alabama was able to escape Death Valley with a win. The Tide were solidly outgained by LSU, held the ball for only 21 minutes and converted one third down. For the first time since August, I looked at ‘Bama with less than complete confidence that they’re the nation’s best team. Yet they won, so they should be number one.

2) Kansas State

Don’t let the score fool you. The only drama in the second half against Okie State was the health of Collin Klein. That issue will hang over the rest of Kansas State’s season. At this point the Wildcats have earned the number two spot. They won’t stay there if Oregon keeps winning, but currently this resume is stronger.

3) Oregon

There are two ways to think about the shootout win in L.A.: the Ducks’ defense was exposed against the best offense it has faced, or the best offense it has faced was the only one capable of scoring that way. The truth is likely in between; what is not in question is the offense’s credentials.

4) Notre Dame

At this point I can only chuckle at the absurdity that is Notre Dame’s season. With the lucky bounces, bad calls and crazy finishes, the Irish are 9-0. Somehow they keep winning, so it seems foolish to pick against them. Saturday’s triple-overtime win against Pitt epitomized 2012 for Notre Dame.

5) Florida State

What looked like a barnburner in the preseason against Virginia Tech has turned into a potential laugher. Thursday night’s contest in Blacksburg was supposed to be a showdown of ranked rivals; instead it’s a battle for respectability for the Hokies. If they hang around in this game at all, FSU is dropping.

6) Ohio State

The nation’s only 10-0 team, yet there’s still almost no buzz regarding “What if Ohio State wasn’t on probation?” That speaks volumes about the perceived weakness of the Big Ten. It’s a shame, not because this is a championship team, but because this probation has effectively muted what should be a Heisman campaign for Braxton Miller.

7) Florida

I really don’t like having Florida up this high, but LSU lost and the Gators didn’t. Of course, beating Mizzou 14-7 is arguably more disappointing than a close loss to Alabama, but that’s not the way the computers will see it. In any case, Florida is very lucky to still have an outside shot at the SEC title.

8) LSU

Oh my. LSU was seconds away from rewriting its destiny, from switching the narrative to redemption from disappointment. It wasn’t meant to be. The Tigers are without question a top ten team, but they’ll continue to be held back by their awful quarterbacking until Les Miles figures out the forward pass is legal.

9) Clemson

Undervalued nationally, even if they haven’t beaten anyone of merit. Clemson will get a chance to prove itself against South Carolina at the end of the year. I expect them to lose, but at this point the Tigers have done more to deserve a ranking. Style points matter when your schedule isn’t impressive.

10) South Carolina

Why are half the teams in the SEC ending conference play in early November? That’s right, they play a pansy 8-game schedule. The Gamecocks should have no trouble with Arkansas this week, even if they have zero motivation now that the East is lost. They follow that up with Wofford and Clemson in the finale.

11) Louisville

The Big East is bad, but Louisville has, to its credit, picked up its play lately. The Cardinals are now rolling towards a season-ending showdown with Rutgers that will decide the league title. I’m confident they’ll get there undefeated; I’m less confident they’ll win that game on the road.

12) Georgia

Another sluggish first half, another victory. All that stands between the Bulldogs and a date with Alabama in Atlanta is an atrocious Auburn team. Should be no big deal. Now, ‘Bama would be favored in the SEC Championship, but UGA could give the Tide a scare if they play a full game. It still hasn’t happened this year.

13) Oregon State

Big test for the Beavers at Stanford. I’m of the mind that Oregon State has been the much better team this season, but I guess we’ll find out. OSU has the defense to handle the Cardinal and the playmakers to attack Stanford; the difference might be in the trenches. This will be a great game of similarly-styled teams.

14) Texas A&M

As expected, the Aggies put away MSU with zero trouble. Now comes the big one – the last test for Alabama in the SEC, in Tuscaloosa to boot. Johnny Manziel has lifted this team this season, but failed to produce against top-line competition. Does he have one massive upset in him?

15) Oklahoma

Idle at a strange time. Each of the Sooners’ last four opponents is inferior on paper. So were Notre Dame and Kansas State. The classic problem for OU has reared its ugly head this season, but a 10-2 Oklahoma squad would be enticing for BCS officials. The Sooners just have to take care of business and get there.

16) USC

I wish I didn’t have USC so high, but I know I’d take the Trojans over everyone else that deserves to be ranked. There’s no shame in giving up yards and points to Oregon. What’s embarrassing is how the defense – certainly not without talent – has been eviscerated in the past two games.

17) UCLA

The Bruins have been a pleasant surprise and the Trojans have been a disappointment. I still can’t put UCLA over their cross-town rivals because I have a feeling USC will win their showdown and take the South. I’m just not quite as sure about it as I was a few weeks ago. UCLA is set up very nicely for the future, though.

18) Texas

After that lucky Kansas win I was sure Texas wasn’t top-25 material. Then the Longhorns took it to Texas Tech this week and changed some perceptions. I’m still skeptical about this team, but they have the potential to get nine or ten wins out of this season if things break right.

19) Stanford

Stanford is definitely not bad. The Cardinal are also definitely not great. That USC game is looking more and more like an outlier. The late-year QB switch is intriguing; I’m sure some Stanford fans would say it was warranted weeks ago. We’ll have to wait and see, because Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA is an unforgiving slate.

20) Nebraska

Nebraska, the Big Ten wishes it could quit you. The Cornhuskers have proved to be vastly better than the rest of their divisional competition, yet will still need to sweat out the final few weeks of the season to reach the Big Ten title game. Right now I’d guess this team is Rose Bowl-bound, but even that might not be saying much.

21) Texas Tech

A couple of weeks ago the Red Raiders had a realistic shot at the Big 12 title. Now they’re playing for scraps in this ultra-competitive league. That’s unfortunate, as Tommy Tuberville has done a nice job with this program. Tech can still rebound and reach one of the Big 12’s nice bowls, so they can’t afford to let down.

22) Oklahoma State

West Virginia this week? Oh ho. There might be some points scored in this one. The Mountaineers have fallen off the map following their hot start, but OSU still has a lot to play for. Texas Tech and Oklahoma remain on the schedule. The Cowboys can build for a strong 2013 with a good finish now.

23) Louisiana Tech

The close loss to Texas A&M looks decent now and even though the Bulldogs play in the WAC they’re probably deserving of a ranking. I wouldn’t take them against most of the other squads in the top 25, but unless they’re facing a great defense you can be sure they’ll score.

24) TCU

I’ve been very impressed with how well TCU has responded in the wake of the Casey Pachall departure. A season-ending slate of K-State, Texas and Oklahoma doesn’t bode well for the Horned Frogs’ long-term chances in the rankings, though there’s no doubt that TCU can play with all those teams.

25) Kent State

The Golden Flashes make their debut in my rankings after an upset of Rutgers two weeks ago and another methodical MAC win in their last game. Time will tell which team in this league is the best – Toledo, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green also have an argument – but there’s no doubt Kent State has the best win of the contenders.

Pac-12 Report

Only one game this week is significant to the conference standings, but it’s a big one: Oregon State, ranked eleventh, travels to Palo Alto to meet fourteenth-ranked Stanford. As I said previously, this is essentially a semifinal elimination game for the North division, because these schools meet Oregon in the next two weeks. However, it’s undeniable that OSU has more on the line.

If Stanford wins, the Cardinal will still likely take a third loss the next week at Oregon, to say nothing of the now-dicey finale at UCLA. The Cardinal’s string of two straight BCS bowls is realistically over, unless they run the table and win the conference outright. Oregon State, on the other hand, could reach the Rose Bowl even at 10-2 by losing only to Oregon and Washington if the Ducks make the BCS Championship game.

This is a great matchup of similar teams. Stanford leads the country in rush defense; OSU is fifth. The Cardinal like to pound the ball and hit you with play-action; the Beavers (philosophically, not necessarily in practice this year) do the same. Stanford’s front seven is physically superior, while Oregon State’s perimeter weapons have the edge on offense. In theory, this could be one for the ages.

In reality, I don’t think it will be that close. Outside of a great second half against USC, Stanford has struggled versus every quality team it faced this year and a couple of the not-so-quality ones. The Cardinal defensive front can stop the run but hasn’t faced any elite rushing offenses. Oregon State, except for a lull against Utah and Washington, has been consistent and relatively balanced throughout the year.

I expect the Beavs’ terrific receiving tandem of Brandin Cooks and Marcus Wheaton – no, they’re not as good as USC’s guys, stop it – to nevertheless scorch the Cardinal’s average secondary, allowing a decent amount of production from the OSU run game. Oregon State’s tough defense will hedge on the spectacularly one-dimensional Stanford offense and force the Cardinal into difficult passing situations that they won’t convert.

Elsewhere in the conference, Oregon and USC face potential pitfalls at California and hosting Arizona State, respectively. Both the Ducks and Trojans should win, though. USC is no doubt reeling with disappointment over the Oregon loss, but there’s not a lot to say when you give up school records in yards and points. UO, to its credit, was flawless offensively, which allowed wiggle room for the atrocious defensive performance.

If either team loses this week it will be as a hangover effect from that colossal shootout. ASU is decent but clearly not a true contender, as the Sun Devils have lost their past three games. Cal is still a mess, and although they always play the Ducks well at home that trend should end this season.

The other contests include Arizona, the darling of the Pac-12 South just a week ago, hosting Colorado in an adjust-your-expectations game to get to bowl eligibility, while South division leader UCLA goes to Wazzu in a dangerous contest that the Bruins should win to retain control of their own fate. Right now it’s looking like UCLA-USC will decide the South, though the Bruins still have a tough extra game against Stanford.

The final matchup is 4-5 Utah at 5-4 Washington, a very intriguing game. It’s hard to figure what the best-case scenario is for the conference here. Getting the Huskies to bowl eligibility would be nice, but they also play WSU in their finale and should be assured of a postseason appearance anyway. Utah has yet to play Colorado, so a win here might put both the Utes and Huskies into bowls.  Fans of the Pac-12 should root for this outcome.

Heisman Watch

This is a tough segment because I believe the best college football player in the country is Marqise Lee. But Lee doesn’t have a prayer of winning this season because of his team’s record. If he continues putting up massive numbers I might have a change of heart.

Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

Did you see what happened when Klein came out against Oklahoma State? This award is still his to lose, even if there are actually some good challengers (finally). If you look at where this team would be without him, there’s no doubt that he’s the most indispensable player in the nation.

Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State

Everything said about Klein can be repeated for Miller, though his level of competition is lower and he’s playing without any kind of media pressure. I shudder to think of the record this Buckeyes team would have with any other QB. From the moment he stepped onto the field as a freshman he’s been the anti-Terrell Pryor.

Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon

As with backfield mate LaMichael James a few years ago, Barner deserves to be a finalist but probably shouldn’t win. The system, etc., complaints are true, though there’s no doubt that he’s a very talented back. He would just have to do something extraordinary – over 2,000 yards extraordinary – to win.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Oh, Lane Kiffin. First it was that rascally behavior at Tennessee, then the jersey-swapping trick against Colorado, now a ball-deflating semi-scandal against Oregon. Is there nothing you won’t do? This guy should have his own sitcom. Deflating game balls is an ancient football tactic, one that probably has old-timers chuckling to themselves in their rockers, but utilizing it in 2012 is shameless, even for Kiffin.

Adidas’ football uniforms are the embarrassment of the college landscape, but the company outdid itself with Mississippi State’s horrendous whitewashed home jerseys last weekend. What reasoning went into a) not wearing colors at home, b) designing a new logo for the helmet instead of the classic M-State and c) subsequently coloring everything white-on-white so none of the design was visible? I hope the players and fans thought they looked cool while getting beat on their home field by 30.

I got lucky in my rankings because Toledo played on Tuesday night and lost, otherwise the Rockets would have been in the top 25. Instead I gave the spot to Kent State; the Golden Flashes are one of a handful of streaking MAC teams who have just one or two losses. This is quickly becoming the nation’s best and tightest conference race, though unfortunately very few people are watching.