Take a deep breath. We’re almost there. The BCS Championship
will feature Notre Dame (gulp) and the SEC champion (double gulp). That much is clear. From
there, it’s easy to make predictions but difficult to truly know how everything
will play out. The entire system of bowl invitations hinges on which 10 teams
play in the BCS, so very little is concrete at this point.
What’s most likely is that after the BCS Championship slots
are filled Oregon and Florida will be the first two at-large
picks. Georgia (or Alabama ) will fall behind
those teams in the standings following the SEC Championship, giving both the
Ducks and Gators automatic at-large invitations by virtue of top-four status.
Is this fair? If Georgia
loses, the Bulldogs will have defeated Florida
in the regular season but be eliminated for a better bowl because they beat Florida and played an
extra game. Just another illogical result of the divisional split
superconferences must create. Michigan
State was a victim of the same
phenomenon last season when the Spartans defeated Michigan
but were sent to the Outback Bowl after losing the Big Ten Championship to Wisconsin . Michigan , who played no
one, got a Sugar Bowl berth. In this case I actually think Florida
is better than Georgia
(as opposed to 2011 when MSU was clearly the better team), but that doesn’t
make the selection process any less stupid.
In any case, this fills four of the ten BCS slots.
Additional spots are reserved for the champions of the Pac-12 (Stanford/UCLA),
Big Ten (Nebraska/Wisconsin), Big 12 (probably Kansas
State , but Oklahoma can still weasel its way in) ACC
(Florida/Georgia Tech… eesh) and of course, the Big East (Rutgers/Louisville).
Three of those teams will win their way in through
conference title games in the Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC. The Big 12 champion will
be K-State if the Wildcats beat Texas , or Oklahoma if KSU loses
and the Sooners beat TCU. The Big East also does not have a title game, but
unless an extremely unlikely series of events occurs Thursday’s game between
Rutgers and Louisville
will decide that champion as well.
That adds up to another five BCS teams, with a single
position remaining. In some years the loser of a conference title game would
still have a chance to get an at-large bid, but none of the losing teams this
season will have the ranking to do so. This has opened the door for a surprise
twist: both participants in the MAC Championship, Kent
State and Northern Illinois, are
ranked above Rutgers and Louisville .
As the Big East is still considered a major conference, the BCS-busting rule
applies to the Golden Flashes and Huskies.
Said rule states that the highest-ranked mid-major team who wins its
conference and is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings – ahead of
any major conference champion – will earn an at-large BCS bid. Simply put, it
means Kent State Louisville
were upset last week, neither school is in the top 25. The MAC champion will
move up one or two spots with a win this week, so Kent is probably in with a win. NIU
would need a little boost, but it’s possible. The MAC has never had a BCS team,
so it would be exciting either way.
If that scenario doesn’t come to pass, the biggest
beneficiaries would be Oklahoma (provided the
Sooners don’t win the Big 12) and Clemson, because the SEC can’t get a third
team in and Florida
State
As it’s Conference Championship Week the slate is more than
a little bare. However, I feel (and this will be the only time I’ll ever say
this) that this is a good thing. There are more quality matchups this week than
many of the full-schedule weeks this season. The emotion of what’s at stake
will also provide more drama. Fewer games also means more time to take in one or two matchups instead of flipping across four channels at once.
Unless I’m the only person who does that.
On to the games!
The SEC Championship features number two Alabama and third-ranked Georgia, both at
11-1 and seeking a shot at the national championship. Despite what you may be
lied to about this week, Georgia ’s
defense is in no way comparable to Alabama ’s.
The Bulldogs gave up twice as many points per game as the Crimson Tide and did
so against a paper-thin schedule that included wins over just two teams with
winning records, one of which was fellow scam artist Vanderbilt. Alabama is better
defensively, more balanced offensively and beat four teams with winning records
despite playing in the tougher SEC West. Georgia ’s
no pushover, but Alabama
should win the game.
The Pac-12 title game hosts the second- and third-best teams
in the conference… but that can’t be helped. Stanford already beat UCLA soundly
last week. It’s possible the Bruins were taking it easy to avoid Oregon , but that just
seems unlikely. While UCLA’s offense is more explosive, they don’t really play a
lot of defense, which is exactly the kind of team Stanford excels against. Look
for the Cardinal to do the same thing it did last week: shorten the game with
long possessions, move the ball efficiently and deny UCLA scoring chances.
The MAC title game features two teams on a combined 21-0
tear following early-season losses. Northern Illinois’ loss (18-17 at Iowa ) is better than Kent
State ’s (47-14 at Kentucky ),
but the Golden Flashes have a stronger win (at Rutgers) than the Huskies' best (Toledo ?). Kent State Kent ’s powerful rushing attack
could take over quickly.
The ACC Championship is a contrast in offensive
philosophies, on-field success and pretty much everything else. Florida State
defeated the second-best team in the conference (Clemson) to win its division
and, Florida loss notwithstanding, can beat anyone in the country on any given
day. Georgia Tech finished third in the Coastal behind North Carolina and Miami (FL) but was the
top team eligible for the postseason. Coming in at 6-6, the Yellow Jackets
should provide no test at all for the Seminoles.
The Big Ten Championship, the last of the true conference
title games, also must deal with the reality of schools banned from the
postseason. In this case it’s Wisconsin, who like Georgia Tech finished third
in its division (behind Ohio State and Penn State), taking on Legends winner
Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have the superior record (10-2 to 7-5) and won the
head-to-head matchup earlier this year. But look closer at the Badgers and
you’ll be surprised. After being written off following their three-point loss
to Oregon State , Wisconsin Nebraska ,
the Badgers held leads of 14-0, 20-3 and 27-10 before blowing the game. Don’t
be surprised if this is another close one.
The quasi-Big East title game in Piscataway
will be the league’s one last chance to prove to the country that it deserves
major-conference status. It’s unlikely to convince anyone. Rutgers comes into
this game at a disappointing 9-2, having been upset by Kent State Louisville ’s, though. After a 9-0 start and
top-10 ranking, the Cardinals have dropped two straight. The painful fall from
grace has been accentuated by the nagging feeling that a better program might
hire away Charlie Strong. I liked Louisville at
the start of the year, but at this point, especially with QB Teddy Bridgewater
hurt, I have to go with Rutgers .
Top 25
1) Notre Dame
It wasn’t exactly impressive, but it was a win. Does that
sum up Notre Dame’s season, or what? The Fighting Irish navigated a tricky
schedule with aplomb. Yes, seemingly every possible break went their way, but
this team is good, too. Good enough to beat Georgia ? I think so. Alabama ? Hmm…
2) Alabama
If the Crimson Tide knock off Georgia this week as they should,
they will take back the top spot in my rankings. The SEC has won six straight
BCS titles. It’s only logical. Cold, hard truth says ‘Bama wins this week and
goes on to make it seven. If such a matchup comes to be, the nation will have
to choose between two evils.
3) Oregon
The Ducks were back to their dominating selves Saturday with
a fifth straight Civil War win. While 11-1 is nice, it’s painful to miss out on
a fourth consecutive league championship as well. A possible Fiesta Bowl
matchup with Kansas
State
4) Florida
Another one of those teams you watch and ask, “How do they
win?” The Gators can’t throw at all and rely on an endless string of defensive
and special teams plays to avoid defeat. Yet they do it all the time. I guess
putting the best athletes on the defensive side really is the secret to
success.
5) Ohio
State
I had to dock the Buckeyes a little after another lackluster
victory. People can lie to themselves and say Michigan is a top-25 team all
they want; I’ve watched Big Blue many times this year and they haven’t beat
anyone of significance. OSU survived by virtue of being the least flawed team
in a horrendous year for the Big Ten.
6) LSU
Because of the Tigers’ track record in out of conference
games I decided not to punish them for the close win over Arkansas , but it was close. Once again, LSU
faced a highly inferior opponent that should have beaten them despite poor
play-calling and execution. Once again, the Bayou Bengals escaped.
7) Kansas
State
Strange time but a good time for a bye week, I suppose. As
long as KSU beats inferior Texas
at home, they’ll advance to their first BCS bowl since 2003. Collin Klein can
also make one last push for the Heisman he threw away against Baylor. A lot on
the line this week in the Little Apple.
8) South Carolina
Damn you, South
Carolina . This is what I was afraid of. Clemson had
been the better team since September, but as usual the Gamecocks got up for
their biggest rival and showed them what’s what. Unfortunately, this talented
team won’t be rewarded with a BCS bowl because of the SEC’s terrible
scheduling.
9) Texas
A&M
Running up the score on Mizzou to get Johnny Manziel Heisman
votes? For shame, Aggies. In all honesty, A&M has only one good win this
season, but because it was over Alabama
it seems to count for much more in everybody’s minds. I like the Aggies, but
they would probably lose to most of the teams in the top 15.
10) Stanford
Stanford gets a temporary bump for beating a solid UCLA
team, though I may have to drop them down if certain teams win elsewhere in the
top 25. I expect the Cardinal to beat the Bruins again for the Pac-12 title,
though their credentials as the top team in the conference are suspect at best.
11) Georgia
Time for Georgia
to put up. As I said before, the Bulldogs have exactly one good win on their
resume: a shaky eight-pointer over a Florida
team that turned the ball over six times. Play that game ten times and I doubt
UGA wins more than three. Nevertheless, this squad can advance to the BCS
Championship with a win this week.
12) Oklahoma
On the one hand, Oklahoma
State Oklahoma
State
13) Florida
State
Speaking of underachieving… where do I begin? FSU had the
lead and the momentum. They could have finally knocked Florida out of the title chase. Then the
Seminoles apparently remembered, “Hey, we’re Florida State
14) Clemson
In case you thought the ‘Noles were the only ACC team with
the ability to repeatedly embarrass the conference, Clemson stepped in to put
your mind at ease. The Tigers, much like FSU, were facing an opponent they
could have put away but instead let hang around and win the second half. It’s
not hard to see coming. This is what SEC teams do.
15) Nebraska
The Cornhuskers certainly didn’t do much to impress in their
13-7 victory over impotent Iowa , but they
locked up the division just the same and will face Wisconsin in a rematch for the conference
title. I’ve got a feeling the Badgers might win this game, which would be a
real black eye for the Big Ten.
16) Kent
State
Once upon a time, Friday’s showdown with Ohio was supposed to decide which red-hot
squad would represent the East in the MAC Championship. The Bobcats fell apart
down the stretch, but the Golden Flashes certainly held up their end of the
bargain. At 11-1, KSU rolls into Detroit
with a BCS berth on the line against reigning heavyweight NIU. No pressure,
guys.
17) Northern Illinois
I can’t explain my fascination with the MAC, other than to
say it’s overtaken the Big East as the most exciting conference race annually
in college football. The Huskies exemplify what makes this league great: explosive
offense, opportunistic D and dramatic victories. It would be a shame if Northern Illinois won this game but got shut out of the
BCS.
18) UCLA
UCLA could have lost much worse to Stanford in game one, but
strangely the Bruins were also just a few plays from being back in it in the
fourth quarter. The team had nothing on the line last week, so let’s hope that
the double-digit loss was a result of looking ahead to the game that matters
and not an omen.
19) Oklahoma
State
It was hard to punish the Cowboys too much for losing by
three to a (probable) ten-win OU squad. I still like Oklahoma
State in most of the potential bowl
matchups, even if the past few seasons have shown the Big 12 plays zero defense
aside from Kansas
State
20) Oregon
State
The Beavers played by far their worst game of the season
against Oregon ,
though they were outmatched anyway. The slim hopes for a BCS bowl are gone, but
the fact remains that OSU is in position to grab its best postseason
destination in the Mike Riley era (Holiday or Alamo ).
Not bad after 3-9 last year.
21) Utah
State
The Aggies finished off the Grand Ole WAC in style at 6-0.
Now comes the unfortunate reality: the bowl situation for this league is
barren. USU will be headed to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl for the second
straight year, hoping this time to get a win out of the trip to Boise .
22) Texas
TCU isn’t bad, but Texas
was allegedly one of the best “sneaky-good” teams in the country. Had any of
the prognosticators actually seen this team play? The talent is there for the
most part, but the Longhorns remain one of the worst-coached teams in all of
football. They were fortunate to even have a shot at the end of this game.
23) Penn
State
I never thought I’d say this after the first two weeks of
the season, but Penn
State
24) San Jose
State
I’ve hesitated on pulling the trigger with this team… the
Spartans looked good, but it was possible that was a product of the
schedule. However, it’s time to give this team some credit. The only losses are
to Utah State
and Stanford (by three!), and SJSU defeated three of the better mid-majors in San Diego State
25) Northwestern
The Wildcats’ 9-3 mark will sting, because all three of the
Big Ten losses should have been wins. With a little more fourth-quarter
fortitude, Northwestern would have been favored against Wisconsin this week in the conference
championship. Still, nine wins is nothing to be ashamed of for the academic
powerhouse of the league.
Pac-12 Report
The conference didn’t produce a whole lot of shockers last
week. USC lost to Notre Dame. That was expected. Oregon
State lost to Oregon . That was expected (though perhaps
not the score). UCLA lost to Stanford. That was expected. The rest of the
league produced a couple of upsets, but the fact that they happened wasn’t
nearly as surprising as how they happened.
Let’s get the big one out of the way first: Wazzu beating Washington . The Cougars
were the biggest underdog to win and they did so after trailing by 18 in the
second half. I honestly have no idea how the Huskies blew this one (I mean that
literally; I turned the TV off at that point and only later found out WSU won).
This was huge for both teams’ attitudes, but mattered little in terms of the
bowl picture.
The more significant upset was Arizona
State over Arizona . This was one of the craziest games
I’ve seen in a while, with massive momentum swings and scoring runs. At
various points in the contest it seemed both the Sun Devils and Wildcats
would pull away, but neither could do so until the final minutes. Highly
entertaining. And of course, the win vaulted ASU over ‘Zona in the conference
standings.
The final matchup was Utah
and Colorado ,
which had an interesting ending and even more interesting aftermath. First off,
Utah needed a
kickoff return for a touchdown to beat the Buffaloes. That’s a bad sign for the
Utes. Then, the next day, word came down that CU had fired Jon Embree. I don’t
know if it would have made a difference had the Buffs won, but in any case this
seems like a rash and reactionary move.
Since I already made out my analysis for the Pac-12
Championship, let’s go over the bowl situation. Oregon will likely get a BCS
at-large bid to the Fiesta Bowl; Stanford or UCLA will go to the Rose, Washington
will probably go to the Vegas, USC to the Sun, and Arizona and ASU are headed
to the New Mexico and Kraft Fight Hunger bowls, respectively.
The one variable still to be decided is who goes to the Rose
Bowl. If Stanford wins, Oregon State should beat out UCLA for the Alamo bid,
dropping the Bruins to the Holiday . If UCLA
wins, Stanford will get the Alamo berth and OSU will fall to the Holiday . The rest of the order should stay the same, so Oregon State
Heisman Watch
Marqise Lee, WR, USC
A subpar game against Notre Dame, but he was playing with a
first-time starter. How much could you expect? Heisman voters dislike guys on
teams that don’t have at least eight or nine wins, but there’s only so much one
man can do. Lee is the best player in the country and it really isn’t close.
Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State
Dude’s good. Really good. Are voters really going to punish
him for going 12-0 when the program, not Miller, is on probation? I get
not voting for OSU in the AP; it’s fair. Shutting out Miller isn’t. He won’t
win the thing anyway, so get this kid to New
York .
Collin Klein, QB, Kansas
State
With a big game against Texas , Klein could majorly redeem himself
and provide ammunition for those voters who still think being an upperclassman
makes you more worthy for the award. Oh yeah, he could also send K-State to
just its second BCS bowl ever. Don’t let me down, Optimus.
Matt Barkley, QB, USC
A shameless joke at his expense. I hope it will not be the
last.
Some people may wonder why I’ve omitted Johhny Manziel and
Manti Te’o from the list. Both are fine football players, it’s true. Here’s why
neither is deserving of the Heisman:
Te’o is merely the latest in a long line of “best player on
the best team” candidates who have no business being in the Heisman
conversation. He’s a great linebacker, but he’s not even the best player at his
position – that would be Georgia ’s
Jarvis Jones – and Notre Dame’s profile has inflated his worth. The average fan
can’t comprehend how the Irish can be number one without a Heisman candidate,
so Te’o, as the best player on an already outstanding defense, has become that
guy by default.
As for Manziel, he has put up ridiculous numbers. But
there’s a lot of hidden truths in those statistics. For as great as Johnny
Football played against Alabama , he was just
as ineffective in Texas A&M’s losses to LSU and Florida . He’s also significantly padded his
numbers against bad teams, which was never more evident than in the fourth
quarter of Saturday’s blowout over Missouri .
I have a real problem with that. And here’s the kicker: it’s questionable
whether Manziel is even better than Oregon ’s
Marcus Mariota. No one is calling for Mariota to win the Heisman.
Random Thoughts and Observations
In another stupid conference championship game development,
Stanford must defeat UCLA twice in seven days to win the Pac-12. Had UCLA
played all freshman last week, it wouldn’t have mattered as long as the Bruins
win this Friday. What’s worse, such a strategy would have actually gotten them
an easier matchup (Stanford versus Oregon ).
And we’re still perpetuating the myth that the college football’s regular
season is sacred?
Since realignment season has begun again there have been
more developments. Louisville is now joining the ACC to replace Maryland;
Tulane and East Carolina will move from the Conference USA to the Big East; BYU
is reportedly mulling a return to the Mountain West after just two years as an
independent, and Boise State and San Diego State are supposedly trying to back
out of their upcoming allegiance to the Big East. Did you know the ACC and Big
Ten will soon have 14 members, while Conference USA will lose six members in the
next two years but replace them with six more bottom-feeders? Banging… head…
on… desk.
Some people have questioned why I support certain schools.
The answer is that my allegiances have evolved through a convoluted web that
includes, but is not limited to: appreciation of playing styles, love for one
transcendent player, supporting mid-majors or traditional underdogs, playing
with a team in NCAA Football, or some combination of all of these things. In
the interest of full disclosure, here is a list of all the teams I root for:
The Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech!
All the service academies, but particularly Army
These are all the teams I support and you should, too. I don’t think
I’ve forgotten anyone, but I’ll look over the list again next week. Until then,
Guns Up.
No comments:
Post a Comment