Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Where coaches talk smack and awards are won in October


What a fun weekend. No dearth of quality games this time, no sir. Some questions were answered and some new ones were asked, such as, “Is Georgia really this bad?” and “How can the Big Ten have zero good teams?” It was an action-packed Saturday with tight finishes and statements made.

First, to the SEC, where the two top-10 matchups took place. Florida showed up big time at home and, as many people thought they might, upset LSU. This wasn’t exactly shocking given how bad the Tigers have looked of late, but it was still clearly an upset. How a team like LSU, with NFL-quality players all over the place, can be this weak offensively I’ll never understand. As I’ve said recently, we now know why Zach Mettenberger didn’t play last season. He’s awful, just like the past several iterations of LSU signal-callers.

For Florida, it caps a surprising start to the season, albeit one that began with sluggish performances in the first two games. The Gators still lack playmakers on offense, yet teams can sometimes win in college football with a strong defense and a reliable running game. That’s where the team’s lone elite (offensive) talent, RB Mike Gillislee, resides. Will it be enough to beat South Carolina? I doubt it. But Florida has improved a great deal.

The other SEC showdown was a slight disappointment. I had entertained the notion that Georgia was overrated – their defense certainly seemed mediocre – but I wasn’t expecting the clobbering South Carolina delivered Saturday night. Obviously, the Bulldogs are not a top-10 team. Obviously, the Gamecocks are a top-five team. That rankles me after my harsh reaction to their near-loss in the opener against Vandy, but they’ve gotten better in every aspect of the game since that night. Quarterback Connor Shaw has looked more comfortable every week and the defense is, of course, scary.

There were still other revelations this past week. Florida State fell victim to the FSU virus, a nasty bug that makes good teams lose to inferior foes. Seminoles, we hardly knew ye. Notre Dame slammed the lid on the explosive offense of Miami (FL), proving yet again that the Irish defense is for real. Ohio State put to rest any doubt that they are the Big Ten’s only decent team by manhandling Nebraska. And, oh yes, West Virginia responded in a huge way against Texas’ strong defense.

The significance of what happened in Austin can’t be overstated. In their first road game of the season and first-ever Big 12 road game, the Mountaineers came up big. They won their way, outscoring the Longhorns and holding UT off long enough to get the win. That’s an important development in this still-young season. The road ahead is far from easy, but the first hurdle has been cleared.

Next up: The Red River Shootout (I’ll call it that ‘til the day I die) and a pair of potential upsets in Louisville – Pitt and Kansas StateIowa State lead the day. Later on, West Virginia hits the road again in another possible shootout with Texas Tech and Oregon State goes to BYU in a game with red-alert upset potential. USC also plays at nemesis Washington and South Carolina and LSU meet in another top-10 battle for both teams. The nightcap is in Shreveport, where top-25 opponents Texas A&M and Louisiana Tech could hit a hundred points combined. Not as good overall as last week, but there’s fun to be had.

Top 25

It’s worth noting that yes, I gave Michigan State a ringing endorsement just before the Spartans escaped near-certain doom against a terrible Indiana team. They’re gone. I was impressed enough with Florida to jump them up, but I left the Gators out of the top five because I’m still not sure. LSU might just be overrated. South Carolina can tell us this week.

1) Alabama

Back after a bye, rested and ready to continue Mizzou’s SEC misery. This could get ugly real quick. The Tigers don’t have nearly the line or the skill players to challenge the Crimson Tide defense and their own D is shoddy at best. Did I mention that they’ll be without QB James Franklin? Complacency is all that keeps this from being a blowout.

2) Oregon

Probably the most complete win of the season as the Ducks knocked another Pac-12 opponent out of the top 25. There’s a lot of speed and not just on the offense, which still seems slightly fuzzy. UO’s back seven (or eight, as scheme dictates) feed on must-throw situations and force a lot of turnovers. That could be key in the second half of the season.

3) South Carolina

They came, they saw… oh man. Even with the healthy amount of respect I had for the Gamecocks’ defense, they managed to surprise me. Say what you will about Georgia’s defense, but that offense is high-end and Carolina shut them down. Another big test this week against LSU; win this one and all that’s left to threaten this squad is Florida.

4) West Virginia

I can’t say enough about that Texas win. Very, very impressive. Geno Smith delivered again, the defense made plays when it mattered and the offense just did its thing. If WVU can survive the next couple of weeks, it may be time to realistically start thinking about exorcizing the demons of 2007.

5) Kansas State

The Wildcats led rival Kansas by only a touchdown at halftime Saturday and I wondered if K-State was about to get exposed. Then they went on a rampage in the second half, outscoring KU 35-0 (the only Jayhawks points came on a safety) and looking every bit like the top-five team we’ve come to know. The Big 12’s mega-showdown of the year comes against West Virginia in two weeks.

6) Florida

In a perfect world Florida would have moved up to number five, but I have doubts about LSU. If the Tigers lose again to South Carolina this week, this ranking will be accurate. For now, the Gators should be content with the fact that they’re winning without much of an offense.

7) Notre Dame

It wasn’t the margin against the Hurricanes, it was the single field goal allowed. Miami (FL) had led the entire country in scoring the previous two weeks, so seeing that three on the scoreboard was pretty stunning. The Fighting Irish still have a ton of issues offensively, true. The defense, on the other hand, is magnificent.

8) USC

Lost in the 10-point final margin was the comedy of errors the Trojans made against Utah in the first three minutes Thursday night. After that point SC won going away, 38-14. I don’t think they can hang for a full game with Oregon, but that’s true about a lot of teams. They should still win the South, which is a starting point.

9) LSU

A little bit of a charity grade this week. Would you trust the Tigers’ offense against South Carolina’s D? But if we’re going to say Florida is a top-five squad, then maybe LSU isn’t really so bad. If the Gamecocks come out and blast another top-10 opponent, we’ll know we’ve been duped on this team.

10) Florida State

As with LSU, a slight bump from where the Seminoles probably deserve to be ranked. However, FSU a) lost by one, b) on the road and c) played poorly doing so. There’s also the glaring fact that although Oregon State has had a charmed season thus far, there is NO WAY the Beavers are a top-10 team.

11) Oregon State

This has to be OSU’s ceiling. It’s been nice, but with starting QB Sean Mannion now out, it’s time to think realistically. This game at BYU would have been trouble at full strength. Now we’re talking on the road against that defense with a backup at QB? Not to mention OSU’s historic problems out of conference on the road. It would be a minor shock if the Beavers won this week.

12) Ohio State

The Buckeyes are an interesting case. You look at how the offense functions and it seems as if there’s no way they should put up the points they do. You look at the defense and, quite frankly, get underwhelmed compared to previous seasons. Yet when you look at the schedule, it’s hard to circle a game this team will lose. The Big Ten is down, but this is crazy year.

13) Oklahoma

As I said after the KSU loss, this week is what OU has been waiting for: a chance to put the naysayers in their places and return to Big 12 relevancy. The Sooners got back to business this week against Texas Tech and can continue their drive back to the BCS if they play a complete game against the Longhorns. They have to show up for four quarters, though.

14) Texas

Evenly matched rivals? That’s the best kind of college football game. I wasn’t completely sold on UT, as seen by my number 11 ranking last week, but they’re still a solid young team with a tough defense. That D needs to take the lesson WVU delivered last week to heart if they want to knock off Oklahoma, which they have the ability to do.

15) Georgia

Oh, Georgia. What was it I said in the preseason? Something about how last year’s 10 wins were a mirage, an inflated total against bad teams? Well, Saturday certainly held that to be true. The Bulldogs had no rhythm and no chance against the elite Carolina defense. Fortunately, Florida is the only other team on the schedule with that talent level.

16) Clemson

Another decent win, though these high-scoring games have to leave Tigers fans a little worried. Where’s the defense? The offense isn’t always going to score 40 points. Clemson should know that better than most teams after the way they played in the second half of last season.

17 Stanford

Rest assured, if I’d had room to drop Stanford, I would have. The Cardinal’s been very bad at different things in the past two weeks. Against Arizona it was defense, as the Wildcats romped to 48 points (and still somehow managed to give the game away). Stanford is 4-1 but that record isn’t fooling anybody.

18) Texas A&M

I’m skeptical of this squad’s wins, but if Florida really is a great team that three-point loss in the opener is pretty good. As far as mid-majors go, LTU is a great test this week. The Bulldogs let it fly on offense, so we’ll get a chance to see if the Aggie defense is SEC-caliber.

19) Boise State

Good win over Southern Miss with an explosive Fresno team on the way. Boise should win this game – I feel the Broncos’ athletes are still a bit much for the Bulldogs to handle – but if this turns into a shootout you never know. In general I’ve found BSU to be a little less than crisp this year, which is understandable given all the player turnover.

20) Louisville

I really hope for the Big East’s sake that Louisville used the week off to figure some things out. The Cardinals opened the season with 10 very good quarters and have followed that with 10 very average ones. The conference race starts now and Pitt has proven to be a dangerous (if wildly inconsistent) foe.

21) Oklahoma State

Just 2-2 and sitting on a bye, but I had them in my poll last week and I see no reason why they should drop out. The two losses (at Arizona and Texas) are both respectable and the schedule is about as breezy as the Big 12 allows, which should put less pressure on the team in the back half of the season. This ain’t over for the Cowboys by a long shot.

22) Rutgers

I will include the Scarlet Knights this week, even though I feel the same way about them as I do Cincinnati and Mississippi State. All three teams are 5-0 and none has played a single above-average opponent. The difference right now is that Rutgers is giving up only 10 points a game.

23) Arizona State

ASU is, in all likelihood, going to beat Colorado this week. That means the Sun Devils will be ranked when they host Oregon next Thursday. Do they have a shot? Hard to say. ASU has been so much better at home that anything is possible. For now they need to focus on the Buffs, though. Just ask Washington State.

24) Louisiana Tech

LTU and Ohio are the last two mid-majors left standing, as far as BCS chances go. I went with the Bulldogs over the Bobcats because the former have been a bit more impressive to this point. This week Tech hosts Texas A&M in a chance to get a program-defining win. The Aggies must be new to this SEC thing – you’re not supposed to go on the road to play out of conference. For shame!

25) Iowa State

A win over a then-ranked TCU team and a 4-1 record. It’s enough for now. A loss to KSU this week would drop the Cyclones right back out of the polls, but they’ve got a few things going for them. The game is in Ames, a notoriously windy and difficult place for visitors. ISU is a scrappy bunch and the defense is surprisingly stout, giving up fewer than 16 points per game. We’ll see if they’re for real.

Pac-12 Report

First, let’s get the craziest story out of the way. What has Cal been doing all season and what was with the Bears Saturday night? That was the Cal team I envisioned in my (sadly over-optimistic) preseason predictions. An efficient offense that takes advantage of its playmakers, a defense capable of locking teams down and a quality home-field advantage – why can’t this team play like that all the time? Cal has become one of the nation’s biggest enigmas, though you have to hope that a game with Wazzu this week will be the perfect thing to build confidence. Of course, it could also serve as a devastating step back that gets the Cougars back on track. We’ll have to watch to find out.

UCLA faces a crossroads of its own. Though a 4-2 start still has to be considered a positive, the 1-2 conference record bodes ill for the future. All of the next four games are winnable, but the last two (USC and Stanford) are probably out of this team’s reach. That makes getting a win against Utah this week critical. The next game is ASU, with the loser likely eliminated from the South race. I’m looking forward to that matchup.

The game of the past week was, no contest, Arizona at Stanford. I’m still at a loss to understand how the Wildcats gave up a 14-point fourth-quarter lead when they rolled up 600 yards and 48 points. Unfortunately, that can happen when you allow Josh Nunes to have a career game. No disrespect to the Cardinal QB, but I thought what this game really proved was that Stanford isn’t that good. They’ll get a chance to prove me wrong in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, ‘Zona has to be distraught. At .500 and 0-3 in conference, the ‘Cats are one or two plays away from being 5-1 and ranked in the top 15. This is certainly not a bad team, though the defense definitely needs to play better if they hope to make the postseason. There’s only one guaranteed victory (Colorado) in the final six games.

Oregon was excellent in the league’s only matchup of ranked teams, though the result was about what I expected after what LSU did to Washington. The Ducks have been the Pac-12’s clear number one team through the first half of the year. However, the remaining six games are much tougher.

The Huskies are just lacking players on offense. The defense has improved, but not enough to cover the void. The bad news is that the schedule from here on out isn’t easy. The good news is that even if UW falls to USC at home this week – a trip that has been truly horrifying for the Trojans of late – they’ll still be ahead of my preseason prediction of a 2-4 start.

SC had an awful first few minutes in Salt Lake City Thursday, then gradually ground the Utes into submission. I’m not ready to pronounce this squad a true rival for Oregon, but the Trojans can certainly build to that point in the next couple of weeks, provided they erase some bad memories against Washington on Saturday.

The big stories this week, though, will come from teams playing nonconference foes. Oregon State is visiting BYU and Stanford will face Notre Dame on the road. To be honest, I’d be surprised if either Pac-12 school won. BYU was going to be dicey even if OSU was healthy, and QB Sean Mannion is out. Now Cody Vaz is facing the nation’s number one rushing defense, on the road. This just seems like a recipe for disaster. The best-case scenario outside of a win is to keep everyone healthy.

Stanford’s D will keep them in the game against the anemic Irish offense, but I really don’t see Nunes having a good game against the host’s powerful defense. Look for this game to be slow and low-scoring. Even though this is a game in which the Cardinal have the edge offensively, I don’t think it will be enough. This week could hurt the conference’s national reputation.

On the positive side, Arizona State should beat Colorado Thursday to jump into the rankings, which will make next Thursday’s showdown with Oregon very exciting. Who knows, if Stanford or OSU can eke out a road win we may end up looking at this weekend very differently.

Heisman Watch

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

All Geno all the time. Mr. Smith tossed another four TD’s against Texas without a pick, has completed more than 80 percent of his passes while INCREASING his yards per attempt (unheard of) and faces no real challengers at this point. This award has been won on less production than that in a full season. It’s going to take a collapse for him to fail to win it now.

Random Thoughts and Observations

SPURRIER! The HBC was up to his old (and hilarious) tricks last week when he uncorked this gem about moving the South Carolina-Georgia game from its traditional week two placement: “I sort of always liked playing them that second game because you could always count on them having two or three key players suspended.” As Jon Stewart might say, “Yo-ho!” Georgia had no response, because the Bulldogs DID have four players suspended in week two. Tip o’ the hat to you, Spurrier.

Notre Dame’s special uniforms finally saw the light of day (or night, as fate would have it) in Chicago against Miami (FL) this week. Yes, they were just as hideous as we expected. I won’t link to them, because I’m not a sadist. Whichever designer thought a washed-out, backwards leprechaun and a 60-40 blue/gold split on the helmets needs to fired. Immediately.

The NCAA announced today that their sanctions on Boise State would be upheld, trashing the institution’s credibility even further. It’s comforting to know that with more pressing issues at dozens of schools around the country, college football’s governing body could take the time to punish a mid-major for winning too many games and upsetting the sport’s good ol’ boy power structure tiny violations.

Next week marks the sort-of kind-of midpoint of the season, as pretty much everyone will have played six games by then. In other words, it’s hump week. Time to gather momentum and start careening to the finish line.

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