Our glorious National Championship is but a few minutes completed, but the vultures won't wait. That's why I'm getting out in front of the issue now, to dismantle the foolish, ignorant and just plain moronic arguments waiting to be spewed out in the ensuing week.
In the next few days, you will read a column (or five) about the College Football Playoff. It will appeal to your emotions, it will attempt to confuse you with false equivalences, and it will ignore decades of physical and historical evidence to promote an argument that is rife with hypotheticals and logical leaps. This is the Expand The Playoff column.
Sure, the article will say, the College Football Playoff is great. It's been an unqualified success in its three years of existence. Why wouldn't you want more of the same thing? Capping the field at four teams is unfair to the players and robs the fans of more great, meaningful matchups at the end of the year.
Sure, the article will say, the current system is better than the old one, when computer algorithms determined a mere two teams to play for a title, but a human committee has biases and inconsistencies in its selections. Rather than let stuffy old coaches and athletic directors pick the Playoff, let the teams settle things on the field - the way it should be.
Sure, the article will say, the bowl system works now, but look at how star players like Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and LSU's Leonard Fournette pulled out of their team's games this year to avoid injury prior to the upcoming NFL draft. If this practice becomes widespread, interest will decline, and the whole system will collapse! Better to expand now to prevent that cataclysmic outcome.
You'll also see try-hard columns on the purity and worthiness of the FCS and lower-division playoffs, along with comparisons to the greatness of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, to prove an expanded Playoff is what FBS football really needs. Oh, if only major-college football could finally have the real champion it deserves every year!
These tired and inaccurate arguments can only exist in a vacuum separate from our own reality. Once the self-satisfied, pearl-clutching authors of these pieces step back from their computers, their respective visions immediately collapse under the truths of the real world.
An eight- or 16-team College Football Playoff might appear to be a less exclusive, fairer method of selecting a national champion. In reality, all it provides is a watered-down field that destroys the integrity of college football's regular season - you know, the very thing that differentiates it from every other American sport, amateur or collegiate. The rest of the supporting arguments are simply hogwash.
The BCS system was flawed, everyone knew that. Picking two teams semi-arbitrarily to play for a championship was always absurd. Four is clearly a better number. So why wouldn't eight (or even 16) teams be a similar improvement? The answer, which goes to the very heart of why Playoff expansion is wrong-headed, is this: THERE ARE NEVER EIGHT DESERVING TEAMS WORTHY OF PLAYING FOR A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. In many years (2016 is not one of them), there are more than four. But leaving out one or two teams that may or may not have merited inclusion is ALWAYS better than taking multiple unworthy teams.
That's the problem with the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Although it's certainly fun to watch low-ranked squads try to knock off one- and two-seeds, it's not quite as fun when UConn goes 9-9 in Big East play and then wins 11 straight postseason contests to win the title. That's your National Champion? The team that finished tied for ninth in its own conference? College football doesn't - and shouldn't - allow for a scenario where an inferior team can get hot at the end of the year and render everything that came before meaningless.
This is, of course, the aforementioned "difference" of college football: that the regular season matters above all else. College football isn't the NFL, where everyone plays a balanced, roughly equal schedule. College football scheduling is highly unequal, and because of its size and scope has always revolved more around regional (conference) bragging rights than national ones. That doesn't mean the contemporary focus on National Championships is wrong; it simply means a balance has to be struck between the game's roots and its future. This isn't an appeal to tradition, it's a seasoned observation and understanding of how the sport functions.
To that end, the 2016 regular season worked exactly as it should have. Did you think there were teams left out of this year's field that deserved to get in? Perhaps Big Ten champion Penn State (who beat Ohio State), two-loss Michigan (who beat PSU), 9-3 USC (who beat Washington), or Big 12 champ Oklahoma? Here are the answers, respectively, as to whether those teams deserved inclusion: No, No, Hell No, and Please Be Serious.
Penn State eliminated itself from Playoff in September, when it lost to a Pittsburgh team that finished 8-5 and got throttled 49-10 by Michigan. Not worthy. Michigan blew it by losing two of its final three, including an offense-less slopfest at Iowa in which the two teams combined for less than 450 yards. Not worthy. USC? The Trojans started 1-3 and lost to Alabama 52-6 in the opener. Not worthy. Oklahoma was out after Week Three, when the Sooners suffered their second double-digit loss of the season. Not worthy.
The same was true in 2015, when Iowa, Stanford, and Ohio State were left out. Iowa played a tremendously weak schedule and lost the Big Ten title game; Stanford lost twice, including a late-season loss to an unranked Oregon squad, Ohio State lost to the only quality opponent (Michigan State) on its schedule. All three were unworthy.
2014 had the closest thing to a true controversy, as Big 12 co-champions Baylor and TCU were left out in favor of Ohio State. Yet the Bears and Horned Frogs both played weak schedules and didn't help their causes by staging a defense-optional 61-58 shootout in their meeting. With the Big 12 lacking a title game to resolve things, neither was worthy.
In fact, there are precious few seasons (hey, 2007) in the history of college football where a legitimate case could be made for anything other than a four-team playoff, and in many years a single Championship game would have sufficed. If a team is arguing that it should be the fourth and final team in the field over another squad, it has already proved to be unworthy of the Playoff. The only teams deserving of consideration are ones that can reasonably make a case they should be number one, not number four. Need proof? Every team selected for the Playoff to this point has had zero or one loss. Anything more has - and should - disqualify you in FBS football.
The idea that a larger Playoff would be more "fair" is simply ludicrous. Fair to who? What is fair about forcing the top seeds (Alabama and Clemson, for example) to play one or two extra games - during which valuable players could be injured - against teams to which they have already proved (in the regular season) to be superior? That's the opposite of "deciding things on the field"; rather, it's giving unworthy teams a second chance the top seeds won't be afforded.
That's not to mention the massive logical fallacy playoff expansion proponents miss: that requiring more games against quality competition virtually ensures a darkhorse or mid-major team will never win the National Championship. A 2016 Colorado or Western Michigan could conceivably win one or even two games in upset fashion over blue-bloods; there's no chance they take three or four consecutive contests against that level of competition, especially considering the kind of attrition to injuries we would see. How fair, indeed. It's stupid, and it glosses over the biggest problem with the FCS playoffs.
Ken Goe at The Oregonian (linked above) has been beating the playoff expansion drum longer than most sportswriters, and while he's hardly the only columnist out there who favors expansion, he's certainly the most radical, calling for a 24-team field a la the FCS - a "real playoff", in his words. Well, if the FCS playoff is so balanced and superior, surely there must be a variety of teams who run the gauntlet - what's that? North Dakota State won five straight titles from 2011-15, and Appalachian State took three straight from 2005-07?
And surely, given that Ken follows the FCS so closely, he's aware of the injury issues that plague that tournament, as the eventual championship participants are often simply the healthiest ones remaining after the nation's top teams go head-to-head for a full month. Promoting a 24-team Playoff would be ignorant and irresponsible otherwise, right?
And finally, there's the idea that the very bowl system is in peril thanks to the injury-concern withdrawals of a couple of star players. Truly, the only reason fans would fail to travel across the country en masse is because their favorite player decided not to risk his professional future in a glorified scrimmage! Of course, the fact is that bowl attendance declining has much more to do with the cost involved compared to staying at home and watching the game in comfort.
And yet despite several years' worth of declining bowl attendance, the number of bowls has mysteriously continued to rise. There were 40 bowls (plus the title game) in 2016, up from 36 the previous season. That's 80 teams, or more than half the country, in the postseason, far more than what's reasonable. Bowls are supposed to be a reward, not a perfunctory event after every mediocre 6-6 season. It would be a good thing for college football if we lost a good 10 bowl games; perhaps it would make the occasion meaningful again.
The College Football Playoff's current four-team format won't always be the right size in every season. Some years - like in 2014 - there will be a decent gripe about leaving out a major-conference champion. Some years - as in 2005, with USC and Texas - there will be two unbeatens and no other deserving teams. And yet a four-team field will be the best option the vast majority of the time, and that's exactly what college football should want.
Consider the general proposal put forth for a 16-team Playoff: automatic bids for each conference champion, plus six wild-cards. That's a reasonable-sounding setup, until you consider some of the Group of Five teams that would receive automatic bids in that scenario. The Sun Belt winner has NEVER finished with fewer than three losses. Playing in the Sun Belt! San Diego State has been on a great run the past two seasons, but the Aztecs had three losses this year in the Mountain West. Same for Western Kentucky in Conference USA, and Temple in the American. It's all well and good when you get a Western Michigan that goes 13-0 out of the MAC; it's a significantly different situation when you're bypassing good major-conference also-rans for awful mid-major champions.
An eight-team field isn't the worst thing in the world, but as I already explained above, it would inevitably include teams that had no business playing for a title. The eight teams would certainly include all the Power Five champions and three wild cards; in that scenario, why would it be "fair" for a non-league winner (like say, 2016 Michigan) to win a Championship over an Ohio State team to which it had already lost? Ohio State's conference championship-less bid this year will be the exception, not the rule; the Buckeyes got the spot for playing a difficult schedule and finishing with only one loss - and a fluke loss at that.
That's the beauty of the four-team Playoff. It allows for a quality bracket of the most elite, deserving teams while preserving the soul of college football: the importance of the regular season. That's the aspect of the game from which the sport draws its passion, its excitement, and yes, its tradition. Expanding the postseason to unworthy teams would only serve to sap major college football of that which makes it unique - that unpredictable, bizarre, and ultimately delightful regular season.
Monday, January 9, 2017
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
Clemson - Alabama, Round 2
24-16 through the 40 bowl games isn't horrible, but my record was certainly marred by a few bizarrely off calls, including Baylor manhandling Boise State, Washington State's Holiday Bowl flop and Houston seemingly lacking motivation against San Diego State. No matter. The National Championship - excuse me, the College Football Playoff National Championship Game presented by AT&T - is here, and there's plenty to discuss. First, though, a couple tidbits about the previous bowls.
The bowl system has never been a perfect indicator of regular-season quality; I included a large disclaimer to that effect in the first of my postseason posts. No one can predict which teams will lose a head coach days before the game, have an off-field scandal, or simply fail to show up. Still, the bowls offer a referendum on the season that preceded it, particularly in confirming or refuting the narrative surrounding the alleged strength or weakness of the Power Five conferences. On that note: wow.
It would appear the Big Ten's newly bestowed status of "Nation's Best Conference" was, erm, a bit inaccurate. The league finished its bowl schedule 3-7, easily the worst of the power conferences, with a win over Western Michigan as the only (relative) feather in its cap. Yikes. Five of the top six teams in the Big Ten lost, including the top three, with the capper Ohio State's 31-0 blanking at the hands of Clemson. So no, the Big Ten did not surpass the SEC in 2016.
The ACC, meanwhile, is rightly proud of its 8-3 record heading into Monday's title game, but let's pump the brakes a little on the celebrating. These results don't mean the league has suddenly become a juggernaut just because it has traditionally been humiliated in the postseason. Look closer at the wins: Boston College, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech all beat nobodies, and the three losses (from Pitt, UNC and Louisville) were all ugly in one way or another. Credit Florida State for that nice game against Michigan and Clemson for that shellacking of Ohio State (notice the conference at whose expense those victories came, by the way?), but this isn't some all-time performance by the ACC.
So that leaves us with just one game in the third year of the Playoff system (which, it feels somewhat unnecessary to note, has been an unqualified success). The "Plus-One" model, even now under fire for not including three- or four-loss teams in an eight-team format, needs no defending. I have no doubt the greed that rules collegiate athletics will one day push the field to eight or even 16 teams, so for now, let's relish the most perfect playoff the sport is ever likely to see.
CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T
Clemson (13-1) vs. Alabama (14-0)
January 9, 5:00 p.m.
We're back, and so are the squads from last year's very exciting title game. This is a strange contest to predict, much more so than it appeared it would be throughout the course of the season. Alabama seemingly has everything going for it: a new, more dynamic presence at quarterback in the form of Jalen Hurts; another terrifying defense, now outfitted with experience against Clemson's offense; a new round of elite young talent at the skill positions AND a brilliant O-line, and 14 games' worth of finding a way to win (and usually dominate) against a strong schedule.
The Crimson Tide opened the year with a monstrous thrashing of a USC team that, while not cohesive at the time, matured into one of the nation's best by the end of the year. After falling into a huge hole (again) at Ole Miss thanks to some impressive work by the SEC's best passer (Chad Kelly), Bama came back for a quality win, then defeated four consecutive ranked opponents (Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU). The Tide won all four of those games by double digits, and only the LSU game (a 10-0 defensive battle) was closer than 19 points.
Alabama closed the year out with blowouts of two more ranked foes (Auburn, Florida), then handily defeated a game but outclassed Washington team in the semifinal. Through 14 contests, the Tide have defeated nine ranked opponents. That's remarkable, and tops even LSU's stunning run in 2011, when the Tigers went 13-0 with eight wins over ranked teams - before losing to Bama in the BCS title game. Make no mistake, if Alabama wins this game, it will go down as the greatest team in college football history.
Why then, am I so concerned about the pick? Clemson's pedigree in 2016 certainly doesn't measure up. The Tigers almost lost at Auburn in the opener, well before their hosts had made a mid-season transformation into a quality team (yet still one that Bama would defeat with ease in November). A wake-up call? Not so, given that Clemson nearly lost to Troy one week later. After a 4-0 start, the Tigers faced off against new media darling Louisville, and appeared posed at halftime to record a huge statement win with a 28-10 lead. Instead, their inconsistent play almost did them in, as four second-half turnovers actually put the team behind before a late goal-line stop saved the day.
It appeared Clemson had finally figured things out, but just two games later the Tigers won at North Carolina State in overtime only because the Wolfpack shanked a short field goal as time expired. After a bye, the team should have been ready for rival Florida State, but ending up winning a tight game largely because of a pair of atrocious phantom penalties. Clemson's luck finally ran out against Pitt, but the Tigers still seemed like a shoo-in for the playoff with an ACC Championship - another contest the team nearly threw away, this time thanks to an inability to stop Virginia Tech's offense.
No player personified his team more in 2016 than Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who entered the year as the Heisman front-runner and ended up as essentially a legacy finalist (the voters embarrassingly saw him finish second) after regressing in almost every category as a passer. Watson's completion percentage, yards per attempt and QB rating all went down in 2016, while his interceptions increased. He rushed for half as many yards as he did in 2015 and displayed some truly strange decision-making, as seen by his three multi-turnover performances in close wins (and another in the loss to Pitt) to win my annual Stanzi award.
To recap: Clemson won just four games against ranked teams to Alabama's nine; unlike the remarkably steady Crimson Tide, the Tigers were wildly inconsistent all year despite holding a massive talent edge over the majority of their competition; Clemson finished with one loss to Bama's zero, and all of this came with the Tigers playing an inferior schedule. This should be an easy call, right? Alabama is going for history as the first team to ever finish 15-0 and could cement its place in the annals of college football with back-to-back championships (and five in eight years). Clemson should stand no chance.
Yet I find myself torn. Clemson, at its peak, was always the biggest threat to Alabama this season. I mentioned as much in my preview of the Fiesta Bowl last week, even as I picked Ohio State to beat the schizophrenic Tigers. Clemson hadn't had a performance like that all year, and it's suddenly made this contest seem much tighter than expected. Can the Tigers' defense put together another brilliant effort and confound Bama's offense, now abruptly under the direction of Steve Sarkisian and not the mercurial, departed Lane Kiffin? I'm sure Nick Saban had his reasons, but it's obviously highly unusual for a team to change play-callers just before playing for a national championship.
Perhaps it's foolish to expect a squad that hasn't strung together two quality performances against good teams all year (or even played two consecutive games against quality opponents) to suddenly do it now. Alabama is the better team on both lines - the most important aspect of the game - features a punishing ground game, and has the best defense in the country. There's no way the Tide would struggle to stop Watson for a second time... right?
But Watson has Mike Williams at receiver in this game, a luxury he didn't in last year's championship, and the Tigers may be peaking at just the right time. That shutout of the Buckeyes was an eye-opener. If Clemson can slow down the Tide's rushing attack and force Hurts to make more than a small handful of plays, the Tigers have an excellent shot at making Bama play from behind. That's about all a team can ask for against the collection of athletes the Crimson Tide have assembled.
In the end, the pick doesn't change. Alabama has been too good, for too long, to not trust to finish this thing off. Tide defensive tackle Jonathan Allen is the nation's best defensive player, and the efforts of his front line should go a long way toward slowing down the Tiger running game, so integral to all the ball fakes and play-action Clemson runs. With its superiority on the offensive line, Bama should run the ball effectively, shortening the game and keeping its offense on the field for long stretches. That's the outcome that makes sense. But Clemson's performance last week is enough to throw some real doubt into the equation. Did the Tigers wake up just in time? It's going to be fascinating to see how both teams adjust after last season's contest, and should be another competitive game worthy of the National Championship.
The bowl system has never been a perfect indicator of regular-season quality; I included a large disclaimer to that effect in the first of my postseason posts. No one can predict which teams will lose a head coach days before the game, have an off-field scandal, or simply fail to show up. Still, the bowls offer a referendum on the season that preceded it, particularly in confirming or refuting the narrative surrounding the alleged strength or weakness of the Power Five conferences. On that note: wow.
It would appear the Big Ten's newly bestowed status of "Nation's Best Conference" was, erm, a bit inaccurate. The league finished its bowl schedule 3-7, easily the worst of the power conferences, with a win over Western Michigan as the only (relative) feather in its cap. Yikes. Five of the top six teams in the Big Ten lost, including the top three, with the capper Ohio State's 31-0 blanking at the hands of Clemson. So no, the Big Ten did not surpass the SEC in 2016.
The ACC, meanwhile, is rightly proud of its 8-3 record heading into Monday's title game, but let's pump the brakes a little on the celebrating. These results don't mean the league has suddenly become a juggernaut just because it has traditionally been humiliated in the postseason. Look closer at the wins: Boston College, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech all beat nobodies, and the three losses (from Pitt, UNC and Louisville) were all ugly in one way or another. Credit Florida State for that nice game against Michigan and Clemson for that shellacking of Ohio State (notice the conference at whose expense those victories came, by the way?), but this isn't some all-time performance by the ACC.
So that leaves us with just one game in the third year of the Playoff system (which, it feels somewhat unnecessary to note, has been an unqualified success). The "Plus-One" model, even now under fire for not including three- or four-loss teams in an eight-team format, needs no defending. I have no doubt the greed that rules collegiate athletics will one day push the field to eight or even 16 teams, so for now, let's relish the most perfect playoff the sport is ever likely to see.
CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T
Clemson (13-1) vs. Alabama (14-0)
January 9, 5:00 p.m.
We're back, and so are the squads from last year's very exciting title game. This is a strange contest to predict, much more so than it appeared it would be throughout the course of the season. Alabama seemingly has everything going for it: a new, more dynamic presence at quarterback in the form of Jalen Hurts; another terrifying defense, now outfitted with experience against Clemson's offense; a new round of elite young talent at the skill positions AND a brilliant O-line, and 14 games' worth of finding a way to win (and usually dominate) against a strong schedule.
The Crimson Tide opened the year with a monstrous thrashing of a USC team that, while not cohesive at the time, matured into one of the nation's best by the end of the year. After falling into a huge hole (again) at Ole Miss thanks to some impressive work by the SEC's best passer (Chad Kelly), Bama came back for a quality win, then defeated four consecutive ranked opponents (Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU). The Tide won all four of those games by double digits, and only the LSU game (a 10-0 defensive battle) was closer than 19 points.
Alabama closed the year out with blowouts of two more ranked foes (Auburn, Florida), then handily defeated a game but outclassed Washington team in the semifinal. Through 14 contests, the Tide have defeated nine ranked opponents. That's remarkable, and tops even LSU's stunning run in 2011, when the Tigers went 13-0 with eight wins over ranked teams - before losing to Bama in the BCS title game. Make no mistake, if Alabama wins this game, it will go down as the greatest team in college football history.
Why then, am I so concerned about the pick? Clemson's pedigree in 2016 certainly doesn't measure up. The Tigers almost lost at Auburn in the opener, well before their hosts had made a mid-season transformation into a quality team (yet still one that Bama would defeat with ease in November). A wake-up call? Not so, given that Clemson nearly lost to Troy one week later. After a 4-0 start, the Tigers faced off against new media darling Louisville, and appeared posed at halftime to record a huge statement win with a 28-10 lead. Instead, their inconsistent play almost did them in, as four second-half turnovers actually put the team behind before a late goal-line stop saved the day.
It appeared Clemson had finally figured things out, but just two games later the Tigers won at North Carolina State in overtime only because the Wolfpack shanked a short field goal as time expired. After a bye, the team should have been ready for rival Florida State, but ending up winning a tight game largely because of a pair of atrocious phantom penalties. Clemson's luck finally ran out against Pitt, but the Tigers still seemed like a shoo-in for the playoff with an ACC Championship - another contest the team nearly threw away, this time thanks to an inability to stop Virginia Tech's offense.
No player personified his team more in 2016 than Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who entered the year as the Heisman front-runner and ended up as essentially a legacy finalist (the voters embarrassingly saw him finish second) after regressing in almost every category as a passer. Watson's completion percentage, yards per attempt and QB rating all went down in 2016, while his interceptions increased. He rushed for half as many yards as he did in 2015 and displayed some truly strange decision-making, as seen by his three multi-turnover performances in close wins (and another in the loss to Pitt) to win my annual Stanzi award.
To recap: Clemson won just four games against ranked teams to Alabama's nine; unlike the remarkably steady Crimson Tide, the Tigers were wildly inconsistent all year despite holding a massive talent edge over the majority of their competition; Clemson finished with one loss to Bama's zero, and all of this came with the Tigers playing an inferior schedule. This should be an easy call, right? Alabama is going for history as the first team to ever finish 15-0 and could cement its place in the annals of college football with back-to-back championships (and five in eight years). Clemson should stand no chance.
Yet I find myself torn. Clemson, at its peak, was always the biggest threat to Alabama this season. I mentioned as much in my preview of the Fiesta Bowl last week, even as I picked Ohio State to beat the schizophrenic Tigers. Clemson hadn't had a performance like that all year, and it's suddenly made this contest seem much tighter than expected. Can the Tigers' defense put together another brilliant effort and confound Bama's offense, now abruptly under the direction of Steve Sarkisian and not the mercurial, departed Lane Kiffin? I'm sure Nick Saban had his reasons, but it's obviously highly unusual for a team to change play-callers just before playing for a national championship.
Perhaps it's foolish to expect a squad that hasn't strung together two quality performances against good teams all year (or even played two consecutive games against quality opponents) to suddenly do it now. Alabama is the better team on both lines - the most important aspect of the game - features a punishing ground game, and has the best defense in the country. There's no way the Tide would struggle to stop Watson for a second time... right?
But Watson has Mike Williams at receiver in this game, a luxury he didn't in last year's championship, and the Tigers may be peaking at just the right time. That shutout of the Buckeyes was an eye-opener. If Clemson can slow down the Tide's rushing attack and force Hurts to make more than a small handful of plays, the Tigers have an excellent shot at making Bama play from behind. That's about all a team can ask for against the collection of athletes the Crimson Tide have assembled.
In the end, the pick doesn't change. Alabama has been too good, for too long, to not trust to finish this thing off. Tide defensive tackle Jonathan Allen is the nation's best defensive player, and the efforts of his front line should go a long way toward slowing down the Tiger running game, so integral to all the ball fakes and play-action Clemson runs. With its superiority on the offensive line, Bama should run the ball effectively, shortening the game and keeping its offense on the field for long stretches. That's the outcome that makes sense. But Clemson's performance last week is enough to throw some real doubt into the equation. Did the Tigers wake up just in time? It's going to be fascinating to see how both teams adjust after last season's contest, and should be another competitive game worthy of the National Championship.
Saturday, December 31, 2016
Bowl Preview, Week 3
I went 18-14 through the first two weeks, eking out a couple of upsets with Florida State's win over Michigan and Oklahoma State's blowout of Colorado. Now on to the big ones. I wrote most of this preview last week, so while I am a little late posting the picks are still legit.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
LSU (7-4) vs. Louisville (9-3)
December 31, 8:00 a.m.
I agree with the line. LSU should be favored. That might come as a shock to fans who have seen Louisville all over the Sportscenter Top 10, but it's worth remembering that the Cardinals are still only in their third year as a major-conference team (no, the old Big East doesn't count) and are just now seeing their personnel finally look like a Power Five roster. LSU, on the other hand, has been at this a while. The Tigers are unquestionably more talented, even without running back Leonard Fournette. I already don't like how that adds up for Louisville...
...And that's without even taking into consideration how the two teams ended the regular season. The Cards started 9-1 against a tremendously soft ACC slate, then got blown out by Houston and lost a sloppy contest to a bad SEC team in Kentucky. The Tigers? After a rough (2-2) start that saw the program finally cut ties with head coach Les Miles, the team went 5-2, improved significantly on offense, and lost a pair of close games Alabama and Florida, who played in the conference title game. I expect Lamar Jackson to run around and make some plays in this game, but I also expect him to make some mistakes, as is common with Heisman winners. LSU wins.
Watchability: 5. It's always a 5 when Jackson is involved.
Taxslayer Bowl
Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Kentucky (7-5)
December 31, 8:00 a.m.
I'm not sure what to make of this game, other than indignation that it's being played in the third week of bowl season. Georgia Tech and Kentucky both have middling-to-bad offenses and defenses, with Kentucky boasting a marginally better offense and Tech fielding a slightly stronger D. There are no real stars here, although the Wildcats did put two backs (Stanley Williams and Benny Snell, Jr.) over the 1,000-yard mark, which is impressive. The Yellow Jackets have the better resume, featuring wins over Virginia Tech and rival Georgia (Kentucky's only quality win was against rival Louisville). What does it all add up to? More importantly, should anyone care? Probably not, but I'll take Tech.
Watchability: 1. How anyone could watch this game with LSU - Louisville also on is beyond me.
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Washington (12-1) vs. Alabama (13-0)
December 31, 12:00 p.m.
First off, no. Washington does not have zero chance of winning this game. The Huskies are very good, deserve to be here, and can beat mighty Bama if a lot goes their way. The first thing has to be getting QB Jake Browning right; in UW's last four games, he was flat-out bad in at least nine of 16 quarters. Anything less than excellence from the normally very efficient sophomore passer will spell quick doom here. Next, the Huskies can't blink early. This program has come a long way very fast, and these players are simply not used to playing on this stage in the same way the Crimson Tide are. Washington has to stay the course in the first half, meaning not getting too emotional and flaming out, not panicking if Alabama scores first, and not taking itself out of the game with mental errors.
Finally, the Huskies need some luck. It is a fact that Alabama is a more talented team. Forcing an early turnover and getting out in front could be a lifesaver. If UW allows the Tide to sit back in its base defense and dictate terms, the Dawgs will gradually get worn down by the superior talent of their opponent. Chris Petersen is an outstanding strategist, and I don't think he'll be surprised by anything the Lane Kiffin-devised Alabama offense throws at him. Unfortunately, his efforts are more than likely to be futile in the face of the, well, Tide of history. Bama is just too powerful offensively to contain for long, and the Huskies' big weapon against defenses that try to stack the box - WR John Ross - plays right into Nick Saban's greatest strength: pass defense. Alabama should win by double digits.
Watchability: 5. Come on. Bama is going for 15-0.
Playstation Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State (11-1) vs. Clemson (12-1)
December 31, 4:00 p.m.
Regular readers will probably be able to predict who I like in this one. I haven't tried very hard to hide my feelings over the course of the season. To start, though, I offer this caveat: Clemson, at its best, is the better team. When the Tigers get going offensively, they're great fun, and the defense is a lot better than people think. Both teams have been inconsistent in 2016, so there's no reason at all to think good Clemson can't show up to win this game. But there's a difference between the squads, even as it applies to their consistency, and I think that's the best indicator as to who will win.
The Buckeyes opened hot, blowing out Oklahoma in Norman and moving to 6-0 before a flukey blocked field goal cost them the Penn State contest. After a sluggish, hangover win over Northwestern, though, OSU won back-to-back games 62-3 before getting into tight battles in rivalry games with the Michigan schools. In the end, despite some offensive struggles, the Buckeyes emerged as the Big Ten's best team. That's a kind of inconsistency Clemson would have killed for. The Tigers could have lost to Auburn, Troy and Louisville in the first month alone; they went on to need a shanked gimme field goal to beat North Carolina State and some awful officiating to top FSU. On top of that, Deshaun Watson regressed badly as a passer in 2016. This feels like an easy call. Ohio State should win.
Watchability: 5. It is a semifinal, after all.
Outback Bowl
Florida (8-4) vs. Iowa (8-4)
January 2, 10:00 a.m.
Boy, it sure seems silly to have all these extra bowls after New Year's, doesn't it? Especially now that the Playoff games are held a day or two before? Gahhh. Why do I bother? The greed of the bowl system will never be slaked. This is actually a potentially great game, with a couple of defenses that should annihilate the garbage offenses they're facing in what will probably be the lowest-scoring contest of the postseason. It's a tribute to the Gators' defense that they won eight games and the SEC East (bad though it may have been) without fielding a remotely competent offense. Likewise to the Hawkeyes, although it should be noted that both teams gave up a lot of points in the games they actually lost. Normally I'd advise viewers to stay away from toothless offensive slogs like this, but I have a feeling it will end up being pretty entertaining watching these teams butt heads for three-plus hours to no avail. Florida, in a very close, low-scoring affair, is the pick.
Watchability: 4, with the contest potentially setting college football back 40 years.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Western Michigan (13-0) vs. Wisconsin (10-3)
January 2, 10:00 a.m.
I'm sorry, Western Michigan. I want to pick the Broncos. They've been so fun. But reality is about to hit WMU in the face. Wisconsin won 10 games against a very demanding schedule, and each of the Badgers' losses came by one score. The saving grace against a powerful, physically superior team is that Western won't have to worry too much about the passing game. Wisconsin's QB's are both awful. But this squad is excellent on the ground and on defense, featuring a top-10 unit far beyond anything the Broncos have seen this season. WMU has a shot if it gets out to a lead early and makes Wisconsin play catch-up, but any other scenario leads to the Badgers bludgeoning the Broncos with the power run, bleeding clock so that QB Zach Terrell can't find the marvelous Corey Davis on the outside until the game is out of reach.
Watchability: 4, dropping a notch because of the possibility of a blowout.
Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
USC (9-3) vs. Penn State (11-2)
January 2, 2:00 p.m.
I hate picking USC. The Trojans always underachieve with the smallest of expectations, then look great when people stop paying attention. Maybe this is finally the time when the team shows up for a game that means something. Penn State, somewhat like USC, looked overmatched early in the season, but really turned into something by the ed of the year. In fact, these might be the two hottest teams in the country outside of Alabama. I do like SC in this contest, even though the Pac-12 took a downturn in 2016.
For all the talk about how the Big Ten became the nation's best conference this year, I remain skeptical. Let's see how the vaunted Nittany Lions passing attack fares against Adoree' Jackson and the Trojans' secondary. Trace McSorley is a lot more of a chucker than the media seems to want to admit; a 57 percent completion percentage might get it done against run-oriented Big Ten pass defenses, but the Pac-12 asks a little more. It makes complete sense for USC to shut up Penn State's Playoff whining, finish off a fantastic run to end the year, get a ton of preseason love in 2017, and promptly underwhelm us all again. It's the L.A. way.
Watchability: 5. Whoever wins will start next year with massive media hype.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Auburn (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)
January 2, 5:30 p.m.
Gaaah. Everyone knows what's going to happen in this game. Oklahoma, the superior team for two-thirds of the year, with the nation's third-best offense, will get spooked early, turn the ball over, and fail to come all the way back against the churning Auburn run game. Tigers' QB Sean White's health is a factor? Who cares! The Sooners just do this, year in and year out. Auburn shouldn't even be in this game with that 8-4 record, but I have no doubt the Tigers will justify their good ol' boy selection in the local bowl by knocking off an OU squad that, playing in the Big 12, appropriately plays exactly zero defense. How insane is it that the Sooners went 9-0 in league play with the nation's 89th-best defense? That's unreal! It also goes a long way toward explaining that 1-2 non-conference record against, you know, good teams. Yikes. For seemingly the millionth time this decade, Oklahoma SHOULD win this game. I'll take Auburn.
Watchability: 5, even if watching the nonexistent Auburn passing game makes me scream.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
LSU (7-4) vs. Louisville (9-3)
December 31, 8:00 a.m.
I agree with the line. LSU should be favored. That might come as a shock to fans who have seen Louisville all over the Sportscenter Top 10, but it's worth remembering that the Cardinals are still only in their third year as a major-conference team (no, the old Big East doesn't count) and are just now seeing their personnel finally look like a Power Five roster. LSU, on the other hand, has been at this a while. The Tigers are unquestionably more talented, even without running back Leonard Fournette. I already don't like how that adds up for Louisville...
...And that's without even taking into consideration how the two teams ended the regular season. The Cards started 9-1 against a tremendously soft ACC slate, then got blown out by Houston and lost a sloppy contest to a bad SEC team in Kentucky. The Tigers? After a rough (2-2) start that saw the program finally cut ties with head coach Les Miles, the team went 5-2, improved significantly on offense, and lost a pair of close games Alabama and Florida, who played in the conference title game. I expect Lamar Jackson to run around and make some plays in this game, but I also expect him to make some mistakes, as is common with Heisman winners. LSU wins.
Watchability: 5. It's always a 5 when Jackson is involved.
Taxslayer Bowl
Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Kentucky (7-5)
December 31, 8:00 a.m.
I'm not sure what to make of this game, other than indignation that it's being played in the third week of bowl season. Georgia Tech and Kentucky both have middling-to-bad offenses and defenses, with Kentucky boasting a marginally better offense and Tech fielding a slightly stronger D. There are no real stars here, although the Wildcats did put two backs (Stanley Williams and Benny Snell, Jr.) over the 1,000-yard mark, which is impressive. The Yellow Jackets have the better resume, featuring wins over Virginia Tech and rival Georgia (Kentucky's only quality win was against rival Louisville). What does it all add up to? More importantly, should anyone care? Probably not, but I'll take Tech.
Watchability: 1. How anyone could watch this game with LSU - Louisville also on is beyond me.
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Washington (12-1) vs. Alabama (13-0)
December 31, 12:00 p.m.
First off, no. Washington does not have zero chance of winning this game. The Huskies are very good, deserve to be here, and can beat mighty Bama if a lot goes their way. The first thing has to be getting QB Jake Browning right; in UW's last four games, he was flat-out bad in at least nine of 16 quarters. Anything less than excellence from the normally very efficient sophomore passer will spell quick doom here. Next, the Huskies can't blink early. This program has come a long way very fast, and these players are simply not used to playing on this stage in the same way the Crimson Tide are. Washington has to stay the course in the first half, meaning not getting too emotional and flaming out, not panicking if Alabama scores first, and not taking itself out of the game with mental errors.
Finally, the Huskies need some luck. It is a fact that Alabama is a more talented team. Forcing an early turnover and getting out in front could be a lifesaver. If UW allows the Tide to sit back in its base defense and dictate terms, the Dawgs will gradually get worn down by the superior talent of their opponent. Chris Petersen is an outstanding strategist, and I don't think he'll be surprised by anything the Lane Kiffin-devised Alabama offense throws at him. Unfortunately, his efforts are more than likely to be futile in the face of the, well, Tide of history. Bama is just too powerful offensively to contain for long, and the Huskies' big weapon against defenses that try to stack the box - WR John Ross - plays right into Nick Saban's greatest strength: pass defense. Alabama should win by double digits.
Watchability: 5. Come on. Bama is going for 15-0.
Playstation Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State (11-1) vs. Clemson (12-1)
December 31, 4:00 p.m.
Regular readers will probably be able to predict who I like in this one. I haven't tried very hard to hide my feelings over the course of the season. To start, though, I offer this caveat: Clemson, at its best, is the better team. When the Tigers get going offensively, they're great fun, and the defense is a lot better than people think. Both teams have been inconsistent in 2016, so there's no reason at all to think good Clemson can't show up to win this game. But there's a difference between the squads, even as it applies to their consistency, and I think that's the best indicator as to who will win.
The Buckeyes opened hot, blowing out Oklahoma in Norman and moving to 6-0 before a flukey blocked field goal cost them the Penn State contest. After a sluggish, hangover win over Northwestern, though, OSU won back-to-back games 62-3 before getting into tight battles in rivalry games with the Michigan schools. In the end, despite some offensive struggles, the Buckeyes emerged as the Big Ten's best team. That's a kind of inconsistency Clemson would have killed for. The Tigers could have lost to Auburn, Troy and Louisville in the first month alone; they went on to need a shanked gimme field goal to beat North Carolina State and some awful officiating to top FSU. On top of that, Deshaun Watson regressed badly as a passer in 2016. This feels like an easy call. Ohio State should win.
Watchability: 5. It is a semifinal, after all.
Outback Bowl
Florida (8-4) vs. Iowa (8-4)
January 2, 10:00 a.m.
Boy, it sure seems silly to have all these extra bowls after New Year's, doesn't it? Especially now that the Playoff games are held a day or two before? Gahhh. Why do I bother? The greed of the bowl system will never be slaked. This is actually a potentially great game, with a couple of defenses that should annihilate the garbage offenses they're facing in what will probably be the lowest-scoring contest of the postseason. It's a tribute to the Gators' defense that they won eight games and the SEC East (bad though it may have been) without fielding a remotely competent offense. Likewise to the Hawkeyes, although it should be noted that both teams gave up a lot of points in the games they actually lost. Normally I'd advise viewers to stay away from toothless offensive slogs like this, but I have a feeling it will end up being pretty entertaining watching these teams butt heads for three-plus hours to no avail. Florida, in a very close, low-scoring affair, is the pick.
Watchability: 4, with the contest potentially setting college football back 40 years.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Western Michigan (13-0) vs. Wisconsin (10-3)
January 2, 10:00 a.m.
I'm sorry, Western Michigan. I want to pick the Broncos. They've been so fun. But reality is about to hit WMU in the face. Wisconsin won 10 games against a very demanding schedule, and each of the Badgers' losses came by one score. The saving grace against a powerful, physically superior team is that Western won't have to worry too much about the passing game. Wisconsin's QB's are both awful. But this squad is excellent on the ground and on defense, featuring a top-10 unit far beyond anything the Broncos have seen this season. WMU has a shot if it gets out to a lead early and makes Wisconsin play catch-up, but any other scenario leads to the Badgers bludgeoning the Broncos with the power run, bleeding clock so that QB Zach Terrell can't find the marvelous Corey Davis on the outside until the game is out of reach.
Watchability: 4, dropping a notch because of the possibility of a blowout.
Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
USC (9-3) vs. Penn State (11-2)
January 2, 2:00 p.m.
I hate picking USC. The Trojans always underachieve with the smallest of expectations, then look great when people stop paying attention. Maybe this is finally the time when the team shows up for a game that means something. Penn State, somewhat like USC, looked overmatched early in the season, but really turned into something by the ed of the year. In fact, these might be the two hottest teams in the country outside of Alabama. I do like SC in this contest, even though the Pac-12 took a downturn in 2016.
For all the talk about how the Big Ten became the nation's best conference this year, I remain skeptical. Let's see how the vaunted Nittany Lions passing attack fares against Adoree' Jackson and the Trojans' secondary. Trace McSorley is a lot more of a chucker than the media seems to want to admit; a 57 percent completion percentage might get it done against run-oriented Big Ten pass defenses, but the Pac-12 asks a little more. It makes complete sense for USC to shut up Penn State's Playoff whining, finish off a fantastic run to end the year, get a ton of preseason love in 2017, and promptly underwhelm us all again. It's the L.A. way.
Watchability: 5. Whoever wins will start next year with massive media hype.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Auburn (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)
January 2, 5:30 p.m.
Gaaah. Everyone knows what's going to happen in this game. Oklahoma, the superior team for two-thirds of the year, with the nation's third-best offense, will get spooked early, turn the ball over, and fail to come all the way back against the churning Auburn run game. Tigers' QB Sean White's health is a factor? Who cares! The Sooners just do this, year in and year out. Auburn shouldn't even be in this game with that 8-4 record, but I have no doubt the Tigers will justify their good ol' boy selection in the local bowl by knocking off an OU squad that, playing in the Big 12, appropriately plays exactly zero defense. How insane is it that the Sooners went 9-0 in league play with the nation's 89th-best defense? That's unreal! It also goes a long way toward explaining that 1-2 non-conference record against, you know, good teams. Yikes. For seemingly the millionth time this decade, Oklahoma SHOULD win this game. I'll take Auburn.
Watchability: 5, even if watching the nonexistent Auburn passing game makes me scream.
Saturday, December 24, 2016
Bowl Preview, Week 2
After a rough 1-3 start to my predictions, I scraped out a 7-5 finish in the first week thanks to late-game heroics from Louisiana Tech, which struggled tremendously in defending third- and fourth-string Navy quarterbacks, Old Dominion in the Bahamas Bowl, and Troy. The only real shocker of the first week was Idaho turning into an offensive juggernaut against Colorado State, which appeared to be the clearly superior team heading into the game.
Week Two of bowl season is the main event, with a grand total of 20 games across just six days. The quality of the matchups also tends to increase - although mostly at the end of the week - so away we go! As always, all times are Pacific.
Hawai'i Bowl
Hawai'i (6-7) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)
December 24, 5:00 p.m.
Hawai'i got to sneak into its traditional Christmas Eve home bowl game thanks to the bloated postseason system now offering too many games for teams with winning records to fill. This should have been a very easy pick; the Rainbow Warriors are bad, having lost multiple games in blowout fashion to mediocre-or-worse opponents. However, it remains to be seen whether Blue Raiders quarterback Brent Stockstill will play in this game after breaking his collarbone earlier this season. If he's healthy, this is a no-brainer, as Stockstill is an excellent player (27 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in 2016 on 64 percent passing). If he can't go... I'd still take MTSU. The coaches will prepare backup John Urzua, and I'Tavius Mathers is one of the most underrated running backs in the country.
Watchability: 2. Hawai'i isn't very good.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Miami (OH) (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (5-7)
December 26, 8:00 a.m.
Ugh. This is probably the worst game of the bowl season. Where to begin? Miami started 0-6, with an 0-4 mark in non-league play, before winning six games against all the worst teams in the MAC. The RedHawks have one of the worst offenses in the country (although, to be fair, they also have a pretty strong D). MSU, on the other hand, has a good offense and an atrocious defense. The difference is that the Bulldogs' stats were accrued in the SEC, and MSU also lost several close games that could have seen the team's record swing to 7-5 or even 8-4 with a little more luck. Most importantly, the Bulldogs convinced head coach and program-savior Dan Mullen to stick around for the forseeable future, eliminating any chance of a coach-less emotional collapse in the bowl. MSU, big.
Watchability: 1. Please don't get up for this.
Quick Lane Bowl
Maryland (6-6) vs. Boston College (6-6)
December 26, 11:30 a.m.
A couple of conference-abandoning traitors, eh? I think we know how to deal with these turncoats (at least, after having a hearty laugh at their on-field struggles): ignore their garbage bowl game. These programs deserve both each other and the ignominy of playing in Detroit in December. The Terrapins opened 4-0 against a paper-soft early schedule, then promptly got blown out in five of seven Big Ten games, needing a win over lowly Rutgers to sneak into the postseason. BC somehow pieced together six wins from a mediocre ACC slate but, like Maryland, didn't beat anyone. This is a tough one to call. The Eagles have a quality defense but the second-worst offense in the nation; Maryland is mediocre on both sides. In the end, I'll go with a Big Ten squad over one from the awful ACC.
Watchability: 1. These teams don't deserve your time.
Camping World Independence Bowl
North Carolina State (6-6) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
December 26, 2:00 p.m.
Normally I'd be apprehensive about taking an ACC team over an SEC one, but there are few factors that point me toward NC State in this contest. First, the SEC wasn't quite its usual dominant self in 2016, which devalues what Vandy did. Second, the Commodores didn't really beat anyone, needing wins over a QB-less Ole Miss team and a Tennessee squad in full meltdown mode to get to 6-6. Finally, the Wolfpack were simply a better team this year. NCSU had Clemson and FSU dead to rights and bumbled away a win over ECU in Week Two - classic growing pains from a program on the rise. I like what Dave Doeren is doing in Raleigh, and his team should win this game.
Watchability: 2, because NC State might be kind of good next year.
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Army (7-5) vs. North Texas (5-7)
December 27, 9:00 a.m.
Did you know Army finished fourth in the country in total defense? I didn't. I did know it's been six years since the Black Knights made the postseason, which is pretty good motivation. Another good motivator is revenge, which Army has after losing 35-18 at home to North Texas earlier this season. There's a reason the bowl folks avoid pairing teams that have previously played; it's unfair to the team that won in the regular season, particularly when it's a squad like the Mean Green that lost four of five to end the year and really just needed the 2016 campaign to end. As such, Army is a pick to win this rematch, as UNT's 118th-ranked offense figures to struggle against the Black Knights' elite D.
Watchability: 1. I'm happy for Army having such a great season, but I don't need to watch them.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
Temple (10-3) vs. Wake Forest (6-6)
December 27, 12:30 p.m.
This is easiest pick to make thus far, as Wake Forest is vastly outmanned against a very good Temple team. Yes, the Owls are replacing head coach Matt Rhule (although his replacement, Florida defensive coordinator Geoff Collins, is an inspired hire for a program built on defense), but that pales in comparison to the baggage the Demon Deacons are dragging in their, well, wake. The "Wakeyleaks" scandal, in which radio broadcaster (and former Deacons player and coach!) Tommy Elrod appears to have leaked game plans and plays to opponents over a two-year period in retaliation for not being retained by the new coaching staff, is a new nadir for college football pettiness (and that's saying something). Wake Forest's 125th-ranked offense, say hello to Temple's third-ranked D. This could be ugly.
Watchability: 1. Temple deserved a better opponent.
National Funding Holiday Bowl
Minnesota (8-4) vs. Washington State (8-4)
December 27, 4:00 p.m.
This got bizarre really fast. Washington State was already a favorite for a reason: the Cougars' offense, led by QB Luke Falk, is flat-out scary. The Wazzu D leaves something to be desired, but against a mediocre passing offense like Minnesota's, that didn't figure to be a huge issue. The Golden Gophers have backed away from a team-wide ultimatum demanding 10 players suspended under suspicion of sexual assault be reinstated immediately or the the team would boycott the game; but yikes. This is a strange, ugly situation, and I don't see how it doesn't hang over the team in the contest. WSU should have won under normal circumstances, and now it's hard to imagine Minnesota putting up much of a fight.
Watchability: 3 for the morbid curiosity factor.
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Boise State (10-2) vs. Baylor (6-6)
December 27, 7:15 p.m.
Yikes. The Broncos are once again very good, missing out on a Mountain West title only by virtue of losing the wrong two games. Baylor went 6-0 against another cupcake schedule, then got exposed, beaten up and humiliated to finish .500 on the year. The Bears are ending another campaign with a backup at the QB position. Boise State is talented and good on both sides of the ball, while Baylor predictably has another tissue-paper defense. This won't be much of a contest.
Watchability: 2, unless you're (understandably) into seeing Baylor get beaten into submission.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Northwestern (6-6)
December 28, 11:00 a.m.
This feels like another easy call. Northwestern got a nice upset of Iowa, but that was months ago, and other than that the Wildcats' best claim to fame is a couple of competitive losses to Big Ten royalty. Pitt improved a ton over the course of the year, sneakily turning into one of the better teams in the country, and really turned it on in November. The Panthers won their last three, including handing Clemson its only loss, and averaged an absurd 58 points during that span. I don't see Pitt slowing down in the final game for program stalwarts Nathan Peterman (QB) and James Conner (RB).
Watchability: 3. That feels generous, but the Panthers' offense has been rolling lately.
Russell Athletic Bowl
West Virginia (10-2) vs. Miami (FL) (8-4)
December 28, 2:30 p.m.
I have a feeling this game will serve as a great litmus test for the Big 12. Was WVU all that good, or did the conference's weak defenses buoy an otherwise merely above-average squad? The Hurricanes have a quality defense, and the offense, led by sometimes-great QB Brad Kaaya, is also pretty good. Now, the Mountaineers are more balanced than they've been in recent years offensively, and the defense is also a cut above the sieves WVU usually fields. Still, I agree with the betting line in favoring Miami. The 'Canes suffered three of their four losses by a combined 11 points and throttled Pittsburgh 51-28, the last loss for the Panthers in 2016. I can't trust another big-offense Big 12 team here.
Watchability: 3. These are both nominally good teams, but there's not too much to get excited about.
Foster Farms Bowl
Indiana (6-6) vs. Utah (8-4)
December 28, 5:30 p.m.
Hmmm. Utah is the better team, but I'm hesitant to pick a team that lost three of its last four and is so shaky at the QB position. Troy Williams can be wildly erratic, and the normally stout Utes D fell outside the top 50 nationally this year. The Hoosiers are actually better on that side of the ball. Of course, Indiana has dealt with similar issues in the passing game, as Richard Lagow has given it away nearly as many times as he's scored this year (18 TD's to 16 picks). Utah can be a hard team to trust, but look at Indiana's wins. The Hoosiers haven't beaten a team with more than four wins in 2016. Utah finished poorly, but lost to Oregon and Washington on fluky plays that can be chalked up to bad luck. The Utes should win.
Watchability: 2, but only for Utah RB Joe Williams, whose return from retirement mid-season was one of the best storylines in college football this year.
Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
December 28, 6:00 p.m.
Both schools were beautifully true to their roots in 2016, with the Wildcats once again fielding a defensive, run-first, fundamentally sound team and the Aggies finishing as yet another free-wheeling, offensively explosive, defensively deficient squad. K-State was once again the tortoise, starting slow but going 5-1 down the stretch; A&M again played the hare, starting 6-0 but ending the year in the same place as the Wildcats. So which team triumphs in this showdown of marvelously different styles? I have to go with A&M, playing what is essentially a home game, against a defense ill-equipped to defend its myriad weapons. KSU has to win one way: getting out in front early and playing the keep-away game. If the Wildcats get behind, they're toast.
Watchability: 3. It's a decent matchup, but neither QB brings much to the table.
Birmingham Bowl
South Florida (10-2) vs. South Carolina (6-6)
December 29, 11:00 a.m.
Whoa. South Carolina made a bowl? Thank goodness for that November game against Western Carolina (eyeroll). True, the Gamecocks play in the SEC, but remember, they also play in the far inferior East division, and they only managed to go 3-3 against that competition. This isn't the usual case of a talented SEC team just getting by against powerful foes, then breaking out against an inferior opponent in the postseason. USF is really good offensively, ranking fifth in the nation in rushing, and while Carolina's defense isn't bad, rush D isn't its specialty. The Bulls will control this contest on the ground and win.
Watchability: 2. USF's Quinton Flowers is a talented dual-threat signal-caller.
Belk Bowl
Arkansas (7-5) vs. Virginia Tech (9-4)
December 29, 2:30 p.m.
This is an interesting one. Austin Allen (Arkansas) and Jerod Evans (Tech) have both put up numbers for teams that were a little up and down in 2016. The Razorbacks scored major victories against Ole Miss and Florida, but got rocked by Auburn and LSU. The Hokies hammered North Carolina and knocked off Pitt, but lost to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. So which versions of these teams show up in Charlotte? Va Tech is the favorite, and that seems right, given the big losses Arkansas suffered. And yet... I keep thinking to myself, "The ACC is so bad... and the SEC West is so good..." Why not? I'll call for the Razorbacks' offense to run wild again and give the SEC another irritating result to crow about.
Watchability: 4. These are quality offenses that deserve some love.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Colorado (10-3)
December 29, 6:00 p.m.
This hurts. I've written glowingly of Colorado this year, and the numbers seem to indicate the Buffaloes are the better team. CU has a quality offense (if not an elite one like OSU) and a killer D, including a lockdown pass defense that seemingly matches up perfectly with Okie State's Air Raid principles. The Cowboys' defense is also terrible, which seems to favor the Buffs. However, I have this nagging feeling that CU might have played above its talent level this season, and that the Pac-12 championship was perhaps more indicative of how good this team really is. Colorado absolutely could win this game, but Mason Rudolph is a very good QB, and if Sefo Liufao plays like he did against Washington this thing will be over early.
Watchability: 4, though it gets bumped up to a 5 if CU plays to its maximum potential.
Autozone Liberty Bowl
Georgia (7-5) vs. TCU (6-6)
December 30, 9:00 a.m.
Considering the quality of these programs, this is a pretty mediocre game. Big things were predicted from both squads before the season and nothing really worked out as planned. Georgia's season essentially ended with a 1-4 stretch in the middle of the year, while TCU got upset early by Arkansas and was never able to compete with the better teams on its schedule. The Bulldogs have the only quality win, a November upset of Auburn, but even that comes with the rather large caveat that the Tigers were banged up and played far below their ability. I guess I like UGA here, even though the Horned Frogs' Kenny Hill is the better QB in this contest. Look for Georgia to get a shot in the arm from the announcement that junior RB's Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will both return in 2017.
Watchability: 2, and only because Chubb and Michel are both great.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Stanford (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
December 30, 11:00 a.m.
So let's see: Stanford fell to 4-3 at midseason and was the second-worst offense in college football, but we're to believe the Cardinal suddenly found their way during the five-game winning streak to end the season against Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Cal and Rice? What's that? The average national rank of those defenses is 113th? And only OSU's was inside the top 100? And now RB Christian McCaffrey isn't playing? Sorry, not buying it, Stanford. North Carolina's D isn't great, but it's better than any of those five. For the record, in the one game during that stretch against a marginally competent defense (the Beavers), the Cardinal struggled. Moreover, this isn't a typical great Stanford defense, and even the Cardinal's strength (rush defense) doesn't match up well against the Tar Heels, who have a top-25 passing attack. Mitch Trubisky is a pretty good QB, and I like UNC.
Watchability: 2. I wouldn't wish viewing Stanford's offense on anyone.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nebraska (9-3) vs. Tennessee (8-4)
December 30, 12:30 p.m.
Not exactly one of the classic Big Ten - SEC bowl showdowns of yore. Nebraska was undefeated and highly ranked into late October, until the Cornhuskers were predictably undressed by the good teams on their schedule. With the division title still on the line in the final week, Nebraska lost 40-10 to Iowa. Yeesh. Tennessee, meanwhile, was one of the more disappointing teams in the country, finishing 8-4 after a 5-0 start. The Volunteers couldn't even win the sloppy SEC East. Both Tommy Armstrong, Jr. (Nebraska) and Josh Dobbs (UT) are wildly erratic passers, so there'll probably be some exciting moments, but who wins? It's basically a push, but the loss of leading Huskers receiver Jordan Westerkamp this week in practice puts the Vols over the top.
Watchability: 3, but it's a really tepid 3.
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
South Alabama (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
December 30, 2: 30 p.m.
What on earth is this? I'm 99 percent sure this bowl was created to give Arizona a potential home bowl (in which case, whoops: the Wildcats went 3-9), and the fact that it's being played at the end of the second week is a travesty. South Alabama went .500, with two wins over FCS teams and a 2-6 record in the freaking Sun Belt. In the old, sensible world of college football, the Jaguars would have never sniffed the postseason. Air Force lost three competitive Mountain West games, but beat Navy and Boise State and finished with five straight victories. There's no intrigue here. The Falcons should win easily.
Watchability: 1. This game shouldn't even exist.
Capital One Orange Bowl
Michigan (10-2) vs. Florida State (9-3)
December 30, 5:00 p.m.
Michigan should absolutely win this game. The Wolverines are uber-talented and field the nation's second-best defense, and it's clear FSU is in a bit of a down year. UM was literally one or two plays away from going 12-0 and making the Playoff. The Seminoles struggled a lot defensively and went through some growing pains on offense, as the 0-2 start to ACC play demonstrated. Yet I feel as if FSU has a decent shot in this game. Sure, Michigan's defense is great, but the Harbauffense has been nothing but a slopfest all year. How embarrassing is it that FSU's true freshman QB Deondre Francois is already a significantly better player than Wolverines upperclassman Wilton Speight? To make matters worse, there's Dalvin Cook to contend with - you know, one of the three best backs in the country.
If Florida State can foul up the plodding UM attack early and prevent the Wolverines from getting out to an early lead (thus stopping Harbaugh from playing keep-away with the defense and ground game all night), the 'Noles have to like their chances. Yes, Michigan has been a lockdown pass defense this season, but against the likes of the Big Ten, that's not particularly amazing. Francois is heady far beyond his years, and if a lead allows him to go to work off of play-action stuff to Cook, watch out. Finger-pointing could start in the Michigan secondary. Now, the more likely scenario is that UM makes FSU one-dimensional offensively, runs the ball around 50 times, and slows the pace to a crawl while squeezing the life out of the talented but young Seminoles. But we'll see. I'll take... FSU?
Watchability: 5. It's not the best matchup of the bowl season, but it's very good.
Week Two of bowl season is the main event, with a grand total of 20 games across just six days. The quality of the matchups also tends to increase - although mostly at the end of the week - so away we go! As always, all times are Pacific.
Hawai'i Bowl
Hawai'i (6-7) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)
December 24, 5:00 p.m.
Hawai'i got to sneak into its traditional Christmas Eve home bowl game thanks to the bloated postseason system now offering too many games for teams with winning records to fill. This should have been a very easy pick; the Rainbow Warriors are bad, having lost multiple games in blowout fashion to mediocre-or-worse opponents. However, it remains to be seen whether Blue Raiders quarterback Brent Stockstill will play in this game after breaking his collarbone earlier this season. If he's healthy, this is a no-brainer, as Stockstill is an excellent player (27 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in 2016 on 64 percent passing). If he can't go... I'd still take MTSU. The coaches will prepare backup John Urzua, and I'Tavius Mathers is one of the most underrated running backs in the country.
Watchability: 2. Hawai'i isn't very good.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Miami (OH) (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (5-7)
December 26, 8:00 a.m.
Ugh. This is probably the worst game of the bowl season. Where to begin? Miami started 0-6, with an 0-4 mark in non-league play, before winning six games against all the worst teams in the MAC. The RedHawks have one of the worst offenses in the country (although, to be fair, they also have a pretty strong D). MSU, on the other hand, has a good offense and an atrocious defense. The difference is that the Bulldogs' stats were accrued in the SEC, and MSU also lost several close games that could have seen the team's record swing to 7-5 or even 8-4 with a little more luck. Most importantly, the Bulldogs convinced head coach and program-savior Dan Mullen to stick around for the forseeable future, eliminating any chance of a coach-less emotional collapse in the bowl. MSU, big.
Watchability: 1. Please don't get up for this.
Quick Lane Bowl
Maryland (6-6) vs. Boston College (6-6)
December 26, 11:30 a.m.
A couple of conference-abandoning traitors, eh? I think we know how to deal with these turncoats (at least, after having a hearty laugh at their on-field struggles): ignore their garbage bowl game. These programs deserve both each other and the ignominy of playing in Detroit in December. The Terrapins opened 4-0 against a paper-soft early schedule, then promptly got blown out in five of seven Big Ten games, needing a win over lowly Rutgers to sneak into the postseason. BC somehow pieced together six wins from a mediocre ACC slate but, like Maryland, didn't beat anyone. This is a tough one to call. The Eagles have a quality defense but the second-worst offense in the nation; Maryland is mediocre on both sides. In the end, I'll go with a Big Ten squad over one from the awful ACC.
Watchability: 1. These teams don't deserve your time.
Camping World Independence Bowl
North Carolina State (6-6) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
December 26, 2:00 p.m.
Normally I'd be apprehensive about taking an ACC team over an SEC one, but there are few factors that point me toward NC State in this contest. First, the SEC wasn't quite its usual dominant self in 2016, which devalues what Vandy did. Second, the Commodores didn't really beat anyone, needing wins over a QB-less Ole Miss team and a Tennessee squad in full meltdown mode to get to 6-6. Finally, the Wolfpack were simply a better team this year. NCSU had Clemson and FSU dead to rights and bumbled away a win over ECU in Week Two - classic growing pains from a program on the rise. I like what Dave Doeren is doing in Raleigh, and his team should win this game.
Watchability: 2, because NC State might be kind of good next year.
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Army (7-5) vs. North Texas (5-7)
December 27, 9:00 a.m.
Did you know Army finished fourth in the country in total defense? I didn't. I did know it's been six years since the Black Knights made the postseason, which is pretty good motivation. Another good motivator is revenge, which Army has after losing 35-18 at home to North Texas earlier this season. There's a reason the bowl folks avoid pairing teams that have previously played; it's unfair to the team that won in the regular season, particularly when it's a squad like the Mean Green that lost four of five to end the year and really just needed the 2016 campaign to end. As such, Army is a pick to win this rematch, as UNT's 118th-ranked offense figures to struggle against the Black Knights' elite D.
Watchability: 1. I'm happy for Army having such a great season, but I don't need to watch them.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
Temple (10-3) vs. Wake Forest (6-6)
December 27, 12:30 p.m.
This is easiest pick to make thus far, as Wake Forest is vastly outmanned against a very good Temple team. Yes, the Owls are replacing head coach Matt Rhule (although his replacement, Florida defensive coordinator Geoff Collins, is an inspired hire for a program built on defense), but that pales in comparison to the baggage the Demon Deacons are dragging in their, well, wake. The "Wakeyleaks" scandal, in which radio broadcaster (and former Deacons player and coach!) Tommy Elrod appears to have leaked game plans and plays to opponents over a two-year period in retaliation for not being retained by the new coaching staff, is a new nadir for college football pettiness (and that's saying something). Wake Forest's 125th-ranked offense, say hello to Temple's third-ranked D. This could be ugly.
Watchability: 1. Temple deserved a better opponent.
National Funding Holiday Bowl
Minnesota (8-4) vs. Washington State (8-4)
December 27, 4:00 p.m.
This got bizarre really fast. Washington State was already a favorite for a reason: the Cougars' offense, led by QB Luke Falk, is flat-out scary. The Wazzu D leaves something to be desired, but against a mediocre passing offense like Minnesota's, that didn't figure to be a huge issue. The Golden Gophers have backed away from a team-wide ultimatum demanding 10 players suspended under suspicion of sexual assault be reinstated immediately or the the team would boycott the game; but yikes. This is a strange, ugly situation, and I don't see how it doesn't hang over the team in the contest. WSU should have won under normal circumstances, and now it's hard to imagine Minnesota putting up much of a fight.
Watchability: 3 for the morbid curiosity factor.
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Boise State (10-2) vs. Baylor (6-6)
December 27, 7:15 p.m.
Yikes. The Broncos are once again very good, missing out on a Mountain West title only by virtue of losing the wrong two games. Baylor went 6-0 against another cupcake schedule, then got exposed, beaten up and humiliated to finish .500 on the year. The Bears are ending another campaign with a backup at the QB position. Boise State is talented and good on both sides of the ball, while Baylor predictably has another tissue-paper defense. This won't be much of a contest.
Watchability: 2, unless you're (understandably) into seeing Baylor get beaten into submission.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Northwestern (6-6)
December 28, 11:00 a.m.
This feels like another easy call. Northwestern got a nice upset of Iowa, but that was months ago, and other than that the Wildcats' best claim to fame is a couple of competitive losses to Big Ten royalty. Pitt improved a ton over the course of the year, sneakily turning into one of the better teams in the country, and really turned it on in November. The Panthers won their last three, including handing Clemson its only loss, and averaged an absurd 58 points during that span. I don't see Pitt slowing down in the final game for program stalwarts Nathan Peterman (QB) and James Conner (RB).
Watchability: 3. That feels generous, but the Panthers' offense has been rolling lately.
Russell Athletic Bowl
West Virginia (10-2) vs. Miami (FL) (8-4)
December 28, 2:30 p.m.
I have a feeling this game will serve as a great litmus test for the Big 12. Was WVU all that good, or did the conference's weak defenses buoy an otherwise merely above-average squad? The Hurricanes have a quality defense, and the offense, led by sometimes-great QB Brad Kaaya, is also pretty good. Now, the Mountaineers are more balanced than they've been in recent years offensively, and the defense is also a cut above the sieves WVU usually fields. Still, I agree with the betting line in favoring Miami. The 'Canes suffered three of their four losses by a combined 11 points and throttled Pittsburgh 51-28, the last loss for the Panthers in 2016. I can't trust another big-offense Big 12 team here.
Watchability: 3. These are both nominally good teams, but there's not too much to get excited about.
Foster Farms Bowl
Indiana (6-6) vs. Utah (8-4)
December 28, 5:30 p.m.
Hmmm. Utah is the better team, but I'm hesitant to pick a team that lost three of its last four and is so shaky at the QB position. Troy Williams can be wildly erratic, and the normally stout Utes D fell outside the top 50 nationally this year. The Hoosiers are actually better on that side of the ball. Of course, Indiana has dealt with similar issues in the passing game, as Richard Lagow has given it away nearly as many times as he's scored this year (18 TD's to 16 picks). Utah can be a hard team to trust, but look at Indiana's wins. The Hoosiers haven't beaten a team with more than four wins in 2016. Utah finished poorly, but lost to Oregon and Washington on fluky plays that can be chalked up to bad luck. The Utes should win.
Watchability: 2, but only for Utah RB Joe Williams, whose return from retirement mid-season was one of the best storylines in college football this year.
Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
December 28, 6:00 p.m.
Both schools were beautifully true to their roots in 2016, with the Wildcats once again fielding a defensive, run-first, fundamentally sound team and the Aggies finishing as yet another free-wheeling, offensively explosive, defensively deficient squad. K-State was once again the tortoise, starting slow but going 5-1 down the stretch; A&M again played the hare, starting 6-0 but ending the year in the same place as the Wildcats. So which team triumphs in this showdown of marvelously different styles? I have to go with A&M, playing what is essentially a home game, against a defense ill-equipped to defend its myriad weapons. KSU has to win one way: getting out in front early and playing the keep-away game. If the Wildcats get behind, they're toast.
Watchability: 3. It's a decent matchup, but neither QB brings much to the table.
Birmingham Bowl
South Florida (10-2) vs. South Carolina (6-6)
December 29, 11:00 a.m.
Whoa. South Carolina made a bowl? Thank goodness for that November game against Western Carolina (eyeroll). True, the Gamecocks play in the SEC, but remember, they also play in the far inferior East division, and they only managed to go 3-3 against that competition. This isn't the usual case of a talented SEC team just getting by against powerful foes, then breaking out against an inferior opponent in the postseason. USF is really good offensively, ranking fifth in the nation in rushing, and while Carolina's defense isn't bad, rush D isn't its specialty. The Bulls will control this contest on the ground and win.
Watchability: 2. USF's Quinton Flowers is a talented dual-threat signal-caller.
Belk Bowl
Arkansas (7-5) vs. Virginia Tech (9-4)
December 29, 2:30 p.m.
This is an interesting one. Austin Allen (Arkansas) and Jerod Evans (Tech) have both put up numbers for teams that were a little up and down in 2016. The Razorbacks scored major victories against Ole Miss and Florida, but got rocked by Auburn and LSU. The Hokies hammered North Carolina and knocked off Pitt, but lost to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. So which versions of these teams show up in Charlotte? Va Tech is the favorite, and that seems right, given the big losses Arkansas suffered. And yet... I keep thinking to myself, "The ACC is so bad... and the SEC West is so good..." Why not? I'll call for the Razorbacks' offense to run wild again and give the SEC another irritating result to crow about.
Watchability: 4. These are quality offenses that deserve some love.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Colorado (10-3)
December 29, 6:00 p.m.
This hurts. I've written glowingly of Colorado this year, and the numbers seem to indicate the Buffaloes are the better team. CU has a quality offense (if not an elite one like OSU) and a killer D, including a lockdown pass defense that seemingly matches up perfectly with Okie State's Air Raid principles. The Cowboys' defense is also terrible, which seems to favor the Buffs. However, I have this nagging feeling that CU might have played above its talent level this season, and that the Pac-12 championship was perhaps more indicative of how good this team really is. Colorado absolutely could win this game, but Mason Rudolph is a very good QB, and if Sefo Liufao plays like he did against Washington this thing will be over early.
Watchability: 4, though it gets bumped up to a 5 if CU plays to its maximum potential.
Autozone Liberty Bowl
Georgia (7-5) vs. TCU (6-6)
December 30, 9:00 a.m.
Considering the quality of these programs, this is a pretty mediocre game. Big things were predicted from both squads before the season and nothing really worked out as planned. Georgia's season essentially ended with a 1-4 stretch in the middle of the year, while TCU got upset early by Arkansas and was never able to compete with the better teams on its schedule. The Bulldogs have the only quality win, a November upset of Auburn, but even that comes with the rather large caveat that the Tigers were banged up and played far below their ability. I guess I like UGA here, even though the Horned Frogs' Kenny Hill is the better QB in this contest. Look for Georgia to get a shot in the arm from the announcement that junior RB's Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will both return in 2017.
Watchability: 2, and only because Chubb and Michel are both great.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Stanford (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
December 30, 11:00 a.m.
So let's see: Stanford fell to 4-3 at midseason and was the second-worst offense in college football, but we're to believe the Cardinal suddenly found their way during the five-game winning streak to end the season against Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Cal and Rice? What's that? The average national rank of those defenses is 113th? And only OSU's was inside the top 100? And now RB Christian McCaffrey isn't playing? Sorry, not buying it, Stanford. North Carolina's D isn't great, but it's better than any of those five. For the record, in the one game during that stretch against a marginally competent defense (the Beavers), the Cardinal struggled. Moreover, this isn't a typical great Stanford defense, and even the Cardinal's strength (rush defense) doesn't match up well against the Tar Heels, who have a top-25 passing attack. Mitch Trubisky is a pretty good QB, and I like UNC.
Watchability: 2. I wouldn't wish viewing Stanford's offense on anyone.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nebraska (9-3) vs. Tennessee (8-4)
December 30, 12:30 p.m.
Not exactly one of the classic Big Ten - SEC bowl showdowns of yore. Nebraska was undefeated and highly ranked into late October, until the Cornhuskers were predictably undressed by the good teams on their schedule. With the division title still on the line in the final week, Nebraska lost 40-10 to Iowa. Yeesh. Tennessee, meanwhile, was one of the more disappointing teams in the country, finishing 8-4 after a 5-0 start. The Volunteers couldn't even win the sloppy SEC East. Both Tommy Armstrong, Jr. (Nebraska) and Josh Dobbs (UT) are wildly erratic passers, so there'll probably be some exciting moments, but who wins? It's basically a push, but the loss of leading Huskers receiver Jordan Westerkamp this week in practice puts the Vols over the top.
Watchability: 3, but it's a really tepid 3.
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
South Alabama (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
December 30, 2: 30 p.m.
What on earth is this? I'm 99 percent sure this bowl was created to give Arizona a potential home bowl (in which case, whoops: the Wildcats went 3-9), and the fact that it's being played at the end of the second week is a travesty. South Alabama went .500, with two wins over FCS teams and a 2-6 record in the freaking Sun Belt. In the old, sensible world of college football, the Jaguars would have never sniffed the postseason. Air Force lost three competitive Mountain West games, but beat Navy and Boise State and finished with five straight victories. There's no intrigue here. The Falcons should win easily.
Watchability: 1. This game shouldn't even exist.
Capital One Orange Bowl
Michigan (10-2) vs. Florida State (9-3)
December 30, 5:00 p.m.
Michigan should absolutely win this game. The Wolverines are uber-talented and field the nation's second-best defense, and it's clear FSU is in a bit of a down year. UM was literally one or two plays away from going 12-0 and making the Playoff. The Seminoles struggled a lot defensively and went through some growing pains on offense, as the 0-2 start to ACC play demonstrated. Yet I feel as if FSU has a decent shot in this game. Sure, Michigan's defense is great, but the Harbauffense has been nothing but a slopfest all year. How embarrassing is it that FSU's true freshman QB Deondre Francois is already a significantly better player than Wolverines upperclassman Wilton Speight? To make matters worse, there's Dalvin Cook to contend with - you know, one of the three best backs in the country.
If Florida State can foul up the plodding UM attack early and prevent the Wolverines from getting out to an early lead (thus stopping Harbaugh from playing keep-away with the defense and ground game all night), the 'Noles have to like their chances. Yes, Michigan has been a lockdown pass defense this season, but against the likes of the Big Ten, that's not particularly amazing. Francois is heady far beyond his years, and if a lead allows him to go to work off of play-action stuff to Cook, watch out. Finger-pointing could start in the Michigan secondary. Now, the more likely scenario is that UM makes FSU one-dimensional offensively, runs the ball around 50 times, and slows the pace to a crawl while squeezing the life out of the talented but young Seminoles. But we'll see. I'll take... FSU?
Watchability: 5. It's not the best matchup of the bowl season, but it's very good.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Bowl Preview, Week 1
The bowls are back and I've returned with my usual guide to help viewers through the confusing, maddening mess that is the college football postseason. My disdain for the explosion of bowls in the past decade is no secret, even if I end up watching most of them anyway. Motivation is the x-factor in bowl season; while the regular season remains at least somewhat predictable thanks to players' natural competitiveness, at least a quarter of bowl teams will simply go through the motions. This makes the games exceedingly difficult to predict.
Instead, I offer my annual "Watchability" scale in the breakdown for each matchup, indicating which contests look promising and which should be avoided. All times are Pacific, with this week's post covering all the games through next Friday, December 23.
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico (8-4) vs. Texas-San Antonio (6-6)
December 17, 11:00 a.m.
This game kicks off the bowl season once again, and once again it'll be a home game for the Lobos. As far as early bowls go, you could do worse, even if the outcome is fairly easy to predict. UNM was simply a superior team and improved as the year went on, going 6-1 after a 2-3 start, so the only question is whether playing in the program's first-ever bowl game will buoy UTSA far beyond its talent level. I don't see the Roadrunners' average defense handling the nation's best rushing attack with much success. However, the game is still solid viewing, if only for the Lobos' unique triple-stack Pistol offense. Trust me, it's worth seeing.
Watchability: 3. I'm not kidding about the New Mexico offense. It's weird.
Las Vegas Bowl presented by GEICO
Houston (9-3) vs. San Diego State (10-3)
December 17, 12:30 p.m.
Wow. What did we do to earn this gem of a first-Saturday bowl? Houston was the most talented mid-major in the country this year, slapping around Power Five schools in Oklahoma and Louisville to bookend a somewhat disappointing campaign. San Diego State has been on a dominant two-year run in the Mountain West, but doesn't normally play teams with this kind of talent level. The question for the Cougars is motivation. Houston's Super Bowl was the blowout of Louisville, and losing head coach Tom Herman to Texas isn't a good sign, either. SDSU plays a style that could frustrate UH, with a run-heavy, ball-control offense featuring shifty running back Donnel Pumphrey that limits foes' opportunities.
Under normal circumstances, I'd give the edge to the team with a conference title and a head coach. The Aztecs have earned the right to be respected in this game. But the key difference between Houston and similar seemingly-motivation-less teams in the past is senior quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. I don't think he'll let the Cougars get rolled in his final game, which is one of the reasons why this figures to be such a good matchup. It's really tough to make a pick here, but I'll go with a rested Houston squad whose ceiling is higher.
Watchability: 5. These are possibly the two best Group of Five schools in 2016.
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Appalachian State (9-3) vs. Toledo (9-3)
December 17, 2: 30 p.m.
Another great matchup on the first day of bowl season? What's going on here? The early bowls are supposed to be hot garbage. These teams are more-or-less inverse versions of each other, with App State boasting the nation's 15th-ranked defense and a relatively average offense while Toledo comes in with a similarly average D but the fourth-best offense in the country. This sets up like a classic battle of strength versus strength. It's so close, the betting line is actually even. I think the contest is a little easier to call. The Rockets' numbers were earned in the MAC, which is significantly stronger than the Sun Belt. Toledo crushed the Mountaineers' co-SBC champ Arkansas State 31-10. Akron was the only common opponent for these two squads, and Toledo won by 31 while App State came away with a seven-point victory. Toledo should win this game.
Watchability: 4. Tune in for Rockets' senior QB Logan Woodside's last game.
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Central Florida (6-6) vs. Arkansas State (7-5)
December 17, 2:30 p.m.
Here's the first real dud. UCF should rightly be lauded for turning a winless 2015 campaign into a .500, postseason-bound season just one year later, but that doesn't mean anyone is obligated to watch the team in a bowl game. This feels like another fairly easy one to pick; as noted above, Arkansas State tied for the conference title in the Sun Belt, but that's not much of an accomplishment. Also note: the 7-5 record. How did the Red Wolves win the SBC, you ask? Well, the 7-1 conference mark was nice, but State went 0-4 in non-league play, including three blowouts AND a home loss to FCS school Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves aren't actually very good. UCF, on the other hand, played some very competitive games in the American, including close losses to Houston and league champ Temple. The Knights are the easy choice.
Watchability: 1. Not much to see here.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss (6-6) vs. Louisiana Lafayette (6-6)
December 17, 6:00 p.m.
That's more like it. This is what I expect from the early, dark days of bowl season: mediocre, disappointing mid-majors in defense-optional slap-fests. Southern Miss was one of the more underwhelming teams in 2016, falling apart after a 4-1 start. Lafayette was a mess for most of the year but notched its two finest achievements in the last two games: an upset of Sun Belt winner Arkansas State and a blowout of rival Louisiana Monroe. USM has an advantage in QB Nick Mullins, which I expect will be the edge that decides the game.
Watchability: 1. Stay away.
Miami Beach Bowl
Central Michigan (6-6) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
December 19, 11:30 a.m.
This is an easy bowl to pick, but it's still worth watching for the swan song of passers Cooper Rush and Dane Evans, two of the best mid-major QB's in the nation over the past four years. Both have amassed more than 11,000 yards through the air and 75 passing touchdowns in their illustrious careers. It'll be fun to see them go head-to-head in their final game, even though Tulsa is the heavy favorite for a reason. The Golden Hurricane have the sixth-best offense in the country and very nearly went 11-1, losing to Houston and Navy by a combined nine points. The Chippewas likely don't have enough firepower to keep up, but with a QB like Rush they'll have a shot.
Watchability: 3. Very good quarterbacking is hard to find in college football. Appreciate this.
Boca Raton Bowl
Memphis (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky (10-3)
December 20, 4:00 p.m.
The Boca Raton Bowl features one of those classic bowl puzzles. WKU was unquestionably the better team this year, finishing with a better offense and defense and winning a conference title. But Memphis is a good team in its own right, and can counter excellent Hilltoppers QB Mike White with a high-quality passer of its own in Riley Ferguson. More to the point, WKU just lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue, while the Tigers don't have to deal with that kind of transition. Given that both offenses are likely to explode, this looks to be a back-and-forth contest. Despite the stats favoring the Hilltoppers, I think Memphis is the smarter pick.
Watchability: 4. There's going to be scoring.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-5)
December 21, 6:00 p.m.
Wyoming was a great underdog to root for this year, but the Cowboys are in over their heads here. After a 7-2 start that included a magical upset of Boise State, Wyoming got shredded by UNLV and New Mexico and (predictably) lost a rematch with San Diego State in the Mountain West title game. BYU played a rough independent schedule and lost four games by a combined eights points, with three of those losses coming against Power Five teams (and the fourth to Boise State). The Cougars are flat-out more talented than the plucky Cowboys and should prove it in this game. The lack of QB Taysom Hill definitely gives me reason to pause, but I'm still taking BYU.
Watchability: 2. Both teams are decent, but there's no real hook here.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Idaho (8-4) vs. Colorado State (7-5)
December 22, 4:00 p.m.
In what could be Idaho's final bowl game before dropping down to the FCS level after the 2017 season, the Vandals get to stay in-state to face a regional foe in CSU. I want to root for Idaho in this game, but the Rams are a smarter pick. Both teams have decent defenses, but CSU's offense is a lot stronger, which figures to put a strain on the talent-strapped Vandals. Idaho's record was also made in the Sun Belt, and it's always a good idea to pick against the nation's weakest conference whenever possible. Colorado State plays in Boise every other year; this won't be much of a home field advantage for the Vandals.
Watchability: 1. Unless you're into the sweet nostalgia of Idaho in the FBS.
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs. Old Dominion (9-3)
December 23, 10:00 a.m.
Who are the lucky teams that drew the Bahamas Bowl this year, you ask? Why, merely a school making its first postseason appearance in 29 years (EMU) and another making its first ever (ODU). What a delightful pairing, and a couple of teams worthy of getting a little island vacation. Eastern was the perennial doormat of the MAC West, but a 5-2 start in 2016 all but guaranteed the Eagles would get to a bowl for the first time since 1987. Old Dominion, meanwhile, joined the FBS in just 2014, so this is a pretty sweet landing spot for a first bowl. The Monarchs are favored for good reason; they went 7-1 in the Conference USA and won their last five, while EMU weathered a lot of injuries to finish with seven wins. ODU is the pick.
Watchability: 2, because of the history involved, but otherwise this game offers little.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs. Navy (9-4)
December 23, 1: 30 p.m.
Both schools enter the bowl on a bit of a down note after otherwise successful seasons. Tech won seven straight after a 1-3 start, but ended the regular season with a big loss to Southern Miss and followed it up with a shootout loss to Western Kentucky (a team the Bulldogs had already beaten) in the Conference USA Championship. Navy fought off tough challenges from Memphis, Tulsa and Houston to win the American's West division, only to get thrashed by Temple in the title game and fall again last week to rival Army. I would have taken the Midshipmen a few weeks ago, but QB injuries make Navy a significantly tougher sell now. LTU is the better pick, given the state of the opposition's quarterbacking.
Watchability: 3. These are still a pair of very impressive offenses.
Dollar General Bowl
Ohio (8-5) vs. Troy (9-3)
December 23, 5:00 p.m.
As far as first-week mid-major bowl clashes go, this one's pretty promising. Ohio and Troy boast the nation's 31st- and 32nd-ranked defenses, so unlike most Group of Five teams, they're actually competent defensively. The advantage comes on the other side of the ball, where the Trojans have a sizeable edge on offense. I like Ohio's run-heavy attack, which very nearly upset Western Michigan in the MAC title game, but Troy has a lot more to offer offensively and is more balanced. The Trojans have also simply been better this season; this team nearly won at Clemson, for goodness' sake. The Sun Belt is a tough league to trust, but Troy deserves to be favored here.
Watchability: 3. We're dealing with mid-majors, but a couple that are actually decent.
That's it for the opening week of bowl season, but Week Two is where things really heat up. There are 20 games next week after this week's opening dozen, and the competition also tends to get a lot better in the more prestigious bowls. See you then.
Instead, I offer my annual "Watchability" scale in the breakdown for each matchup, indicating which contests look promising and which should be avoided. All times are Pacific, with this week's post covering all the games through next Friday, December 23.
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico (8-4) vs. Texas-San Antonio (6-6)
December 17, 11:00 a.m.
This game kicks off the bowl season once again, and once again it'll be a home game for the Lobos. As far as early bowls go, you could do worse, even if the outcome is fairly easy to predict. UNM was simply a superior team and improved as the year went on, going 6-1 after a 2-3 start, so the only question is whether playing in the program's first-ever bowl game will buoy UTSA far beyond its talent level. I don't see the Roadrunners' average defense handling the nation's best rushing attack with much success. However, the game is still solid viewing, if only for the Lobos' unique triple-stack Pistol offense. Trust me, it's worth seeing.
Watchability: 3. I'm not kidding about the New Mexico offense. It's weird.
Las Vegas Bowl presented by GEICO
Houston (9-3) vs. San Diego State (10-3)
December 17, 12:30 p.m.
Wow. What did we do to earn this gem of a first-Saturday bowl? Houston was the most talented mid-major in the country this year, slapping around Power Five schools in Oklahoma and Louisville to bookend a somewhat disappointing campaign. San Diego State has been on a dominant two-year run in the Mountain West, but doesn't normally play teams with this kind of talent level. The question for the Cougars is motivation. Houston's Super Bowl was the blowout of Louisville, and losing head coach Tom Herman to Texas isn't a good sign, either. SDSU plays a style that could frustrate UH, with a run-heavy, ball-control offense featuring shifty running back Donnel Pumphrey that limits foes' opportunities.
Under normal circumstances, I'd give the edge to the team with a conference title and a head coach. The Aztecs have earned the right to be respected in this game. But the key difference between Houston and similar seemingly-motivation-less teams in the past is senior quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. I don't think he'll let the Cougars get rolled in his final game, which is one of the reasons why this figures to be such a good matchup. It's really tough to make a pick here, but I'll go with a rested Houston squad whose ceiling is higher.
Watchability: 5. These are possibly the two best Group of Five schools in 2016.
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Appalachian State (9-3) vs. Toledo (9-3)
December 17, 2: 30 p.m.
Another great matchup on the first day of bowl season? What's going on here? The early bowls are supposed to be hot garbage. These teams are more-or-less inverse versions of each other, with App State boasting the nation's 15th-ranked defense and a relatively average offense while Toledo comes in with a similarly average D but the fourth-best offense in the country. This sets up like a classic battle of strength versus strength. It's so close, the betting line is actually even. I think the contest is a little easier to call. The Rockets' numbers were earned in the MAC, which is significantly stronger than the Sun Belt. Toledo crushed the Mountaineers' co-SBC champ Arkansas State 31-10. Akron was the only common opponent for these two squads, and Toledo won by 31 while App State came away with a seven-point victory. Toledo should win this game.
Watchability: 4. Tune in for Rockets' senior QB Logan Woodside's last game.
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Central Florida (6-6) vs. Arkansas State (7-5)
December 17, 2:30 p.m.
Here's the first real dud. UCF should rightly be lauded for turning a winless 2015 campaign into a .500, postseason-bound season just one year later, but that doesn't mean anyone is obligated to watch the team in a bowl game. This feels like another fairly easy one to pick; as noted above, Arkansas State tied for the conference title in the Sun Belt, but that's not much of an accomplishment. Also note: the 7-5 record. How did the Red Wolves win the SBC, you ask? Well, the 7-1 conference mark was nice, but State went 0-4 in non-league play, including three blowouts AND a home loss to FCS school Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves aren't actually very good. UCF, on the other hand, played some very competitive games in the American, including close losses to Houston and league champ Temple. The Knights are the easy choice.
Watchability: 1. Not much to see here.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss (6-6) vs. Louisiana Lafayette (6-6)
December 17, 6:00 p.m.
That's more like it. This is what I expect from the early, dark days of bowl season: mediocre, disappointing mid-majors in defense-optional slap-fests. Southern Miss was one of the more underwhelming teams in 2016, falling apart after a 4-1 start. Lafayette was a mess for most of the year but notched its two finest achievements in the last two games: an upset of Sun Belt winner Arkansas State and a blowout of rival Louisiana Monroe. USM has an advantage in QB Nick Mullins, which I expect will be the edge that decides the game.
Watchability: 1. Stay away.
Miami Beach Bowl
Central Michigan (6-6) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
December 19, 11:30 a.m.
This is an easy bowl to pick, but it's still worth watching for the swan song of passers Cooper Rush and Dane Evans, two of the best mid-major QB's in the nation over the past four years. Both have amassed more than 11,000 yards through the air and 75 passing touchdowns in their illustrious careers. It'll be fun to see them go head-to-head in their final game, even though Tulsa is the heavy favorite for a reason. The Golden Hurricane have the sixth-best offense in the country and very nearly went 11-1, losing to Houston and Navy by a combined nine points. The Chippewas likely don't have enough firepower to keep up, but with a QB like Rush they'll have a shot.
Watchability: 3. Very good quarterbacking is hard to find in college football. Appreciate this.
Boca Raton Bowl
Memphis (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky (10-3)
December 20, 4:00 p.m.
The Boca Raton Bowl features one of those classic bowl puzzles. WKU was unquestionably the better team this year, finishing with a better offense and defense and winning a conference title. But Memphis is a good team in its own right, and can counter excellent Hilltoppers QB Mike White with a high-quality passer of its own in Riley Ferguson. More to the point, WKU just lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue, while the Tigers don't have to deal with that kind of transition. Given that both offenses are likely to explode, this looks to be a back-and-forth contest. Despite the stats favoring the Hilltoppers, I think Memphis is the smarter pick.
Watchability: 4. There's going to be scoring.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-5)
December 21, 6:00 p.m.
Wyoming was a great underdog to root for this year, but the Cowboys are in over their heads here. After a 7-2 start that included a magical upset of Boise State, Wyoming got shredded by UNLV and New Mexico and (predictably) lost a rematch with San Diego State in the Mountain West title game. BYU played a rough independent schedule and lost four games by a combined eights points, with three of those losses coming against Power Five teams (and the fourth to Boise State). The Cougars are flat-out more talented than the plucky Cowboys and should prove it in this game. The lack of QB Taysom Hill definitely gives me reason to pause, but I'm still taking BYU.
Watchability: 2. Both teams are decent, but there's no real hook here.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Idaho (8-4) vs. Colorado State (7-5)
December 22, 4:00 p.m.
In what could be Idaho's final bowl game before dropping down to the FCS level after the 2017 season, the Vandals get to stay in-state to face a regional foe in CSU. I want to root for Idaho in this game, but the Rams are a smarter pick. Both teams have decent defenses, but CSU's offense is a lot stronger, which figures to put a strain on the talent-strapped Vandals. Idaho's record was also made in the Sun Belt, and it's always a good idea to pick against the nation's weakest conference whenever possible. Colorado State plays in Boise every other year; this won't be much of a home field advantage for the Vandals.
Watchability: 1. Unless you're into the sweet nostalgia of Idaho in the FBS.
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs. Old Dominion (9-3)
December 23, 10:00 a.m.
Who are the lucky teams that drew the Bahamas Bowl this year, you ask? Why, merely a school making its first postseason appearance in 29 years (EMU) and another making its first ever (ODU). What a delightful pairing, and a couple of teams worthy of getting a little island vacation. Eastern was the perennial doormat of the MAC West, but a 5-2 start in 2016 all but guaranteed the Eagles would get to a bowl for the first time since 1987. Old Dominion, meanwhile, joined the FBS in just 2014, so this is a pretty sweet landing spot for a first bowl. The Monarchs are favored for good reason; they went 7-1 in the Conference USA and won their last five, while EMU weathered a lot of injuries to finish with seven wins. ODU is the pick.
Watchability: 2, because of the history involved, but otherwise this game offers little.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs. Navy (9-4)
December 23, 1: 30 p.m.
Both schools enter the bowl on a bit of a down note after otherwise successful seasons. Tech won seven straight after a 1-3 start, but ended the regular season with a big loss to Southern Miss and followed it up with a shootout loss to Western Kentucky (a team the Bulldogs had already beaten) in the Conference USA Championship. Navy fought off tough challenges from Memphis, Tulsa and Houston to win the American's West division, only to get thrashed by Temple in the title game and fall again last week to rival Army. I would have taken the Midshipmen a few weeks ago, but QB injuries make Navy a significantly tougher sell now. LTU is the better pick, given the state of the opposition's quarterbacking.
Watchability: 3. These are still a pair of very impressive offenses.
Dollar General Bowl
Ohio (8-5) vs. Troy (9-3)
December 23, 5:00 p.m.
As far as first-week mid-major bowl clashes go, this one's pretty promising. Ohio and Troy boast the nation's 31st- and 32nd-ranked defenses, so unlike most Group of Five teams, they're actually competent defensively. The advantage comes on the other side of the ball, where the Trojans have a sizeable edge on offense. I like Ohio's run-heavy attack, which very nearly upset Western Michigan in the MAC title game, but Troy has a lot more to offer offensively and is more balanced. The Trojans have also simply been better this season; this team nearly won at Clemson, for goodness' sake. The Sun Belt is a tough league to trust, but Troy deserves to be favored here.
Watchability: 3. We're dealing with mid-majors, but a couple that are actually decent.
That's it for the opening week of bowl season, but Week Two is where things really heat up. There are 20 games next week after this week's opening dozen, and the competition also tends to get a lot better in the more prestigious bowls. See you then.
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
The Committee gets it right again
National Overview
It's rare to see a weekend with no surprises, but that's exactly what we got this Championship Week. The conference title games were easy enough to pick that I went a perfect eight-for-eight, including the Bedlam Game, and Temple beating Navy was the only true upset in that group. The predictability continued into Sunday, when the Committee chose the exact four teams everyone expected.
Navy should rebound to beat Army in this week's only contest to send the Midshipmen to another 10-win season under Ken Niumatalolo, who continues to quietly build one of the most impressive coaching resumes in the country. It's fair to wonder when Niumatalolo, like his predecessor Paul Johnson, will get the call from a major-conference school.
College Football Playoff
The Committee's job is never easy, but for the third time in three years the humans have proved superior to their computer predecessors. Alabama was the obvious, easy choice for the top seed. Clemson, despite its general struggles this season, deserved the second spot over Ohio State thanks to the tiebreaker of a conference championship. And Washington, 12-1 Pac-12 winner, was a shoo-in with the blowout win over Colorado.
2016's bracket demonstrates once again why the Playoff should forever be constrained to four teams. An eight-team bracket would have included two-loss teams in Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma and either Wisconsin or USC. None of those teams are remotely worthy of playing a championship this season, including Penn State, which lost to Michigan by 39 points.
There has been, and will continue to be, a great deal of debate about Ohio State's inclusion. When conference championships are the most important factor (as they always have been in college football), including a squad that failed to win its own conference will always be hard to swallow. But the uncomfortable truth is, just as in 2014, it's very clear the Buckeyes are one of the four best teams in the country. The loss to Penn State was halfway between a fluke and a miracle, and OSU is unquestionably a better team. The evidence is all over the 2016 season. If the Playoff really is about matching up the four most deserving, worthy teams, Ohio State has to be the choice.
Pac-12 Report
There's not much to say about Washington's dominant victory over Colorado. The Huskies have been on the upswing longer than the Buffaloes and thus had a sizeable talent edge. Colorado probably needed a great game from its offense and a few breaks to beat UW; neither of those things happened. Washington was able to calm down and breathe after a back-and-forth first half, at which point things unraveled for the Buffs.
Give CU a lot of credit for battling back after the Huskies scored a distressingly easy opening drive touchdown; the Buffaloes tied it up by the end of the first quarter and got the ball back with a chance to take the lead (and put some real pressure on favored UW). But both offenses stalled out after the Huskies regained the lead, and the back-to-back picks to start the second half effectively ended the game.
I'm curious as to why Colorado stuck with injured senior quarterback Sefo Liufao for the majority of the game. After Liufao left the game in the first quarter, Steven Montez performed reasonably well, and the freshman had proved throughout the year he was more than capable when filling in for Liufao. But Liufao returned to the game, despite Montez leading the Buffaloes to their only TD, and threw three killer interceptions. I don't know if Mike MacIntyre was just being loyal to his senior, but it was interesting to see the superior passer in Montez on the bench as the lead grew for UW in the second half.
Heisman Watch
My choice is still Texas RB D'onta Foreman, who went for a superhuman 2,000 yards in 11 games this season for a middling offense and a team that was often behind in the second half. As usual, the voters have nominated a slew of undeserving players instead, choosing to leave Foreman out of the finalists entirely. For some reason Oklahoma WR Dede Westbrook, who has zero chance of winning, was invited. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who had a very disappointing year, made the cut, as did Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, who would go down as the worst winner in Heisman history after his atrocious performance in November.
But the oddest choice is easily Michigan linebacker/safety/returner hybrid Jabrill Peppers, who is clearly in New York because voters decided Michigan, as one of the best teams in the nation this year, had to have a Heisman finalist. Peppers is a good player and did a lot of all-around work for the Wolverines, but this has to feel like a sick joke to Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second last season despite setting a new FBS total all-purpose yardage record. Look at Peppers' year and decide for yourself: 47 solo tackles (72 overall), four sacks, one interception, one forced fumble. He also rushed for 167 yards and had 570 yards on kick and punt returns. Once again: is this a joke?
Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield is the last finalist, and he's again my choice to to win from another frustrating group of candidates (Mayfield was also my fallback option among the finalists last year). I think his struggles in OU's two losses early in the year, which eliminated the Sooners from Playoff contention, should have been enough to drop Mayfield from the running, but now that he's in New York he's once again the best option in a pool of undeserving players.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Another good argument for the four teams in the Playoff is that all four have one or zero losses. These are the only Power Five teams with records of that quality. Penn State can whine all it wants about winning "the nation's best conference" (we'll see about that during the bowl season). It doesn't matter. The Nittany Lions only have to look to their 2-2 start, which included losses to 8-4 Pittsburgh and a 39-point shellacking to Michigan, to see why they weren't seriously considered for the Playoff.
As for Michigan, well, the Wolverines are whining even more than Penn State (that's what you get when you hire Jim Harbaugh), but maybe you shouldn't lose two of your last three games and fail to win even a share of a division title. I was suspicious of UM all year, and that upset at Iowa combined with the collapse against Ohio State merely served to confirm this isn't a top-five squad. It's hard to feel bad for a team that completely controls its own destiny and loses twice at the end of the season.
2016 Stanzi Awards
There were two awards in this abbreviated week, and shockingly, both went to previous winners. That means our field of finalists expands to 14, a truly impressive number that demonstrates how fantastic this year has been.
Week 14 Awards
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
Opponent: Ohio
Performance: Two INT, won by six
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
2016 Stanzi Award Winner
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
49 players: tied with 1
It was always going to be Deshaun Watson. The Clemson passer really outdid himself in the second half of the season, building an insurmountable lead that even late charges from the likes of Baker Mayfield, Troy Williams and Dallas Davis couldn't top. Congratulations, Deshaun!
That's it for the regular season! I'll be back next week with the start of my bowl previews. It's been another weird, wonderful year of college football, and the marvelous insanity of bowl season promises even more riches to come. Thanks for reading.
It's rare to see a weekend with no surprises, but that's exactly what we got this Championship Week. The conference title games were easy enough to pick that I went a perfect eight-for-eight, including the Bedlam Game, and Temple beating Navy was the only true upset in that group. The predictability continued into Sunday, when the Committee chose the exact four teams everyone expected.
Navy should rebound to beat Army in this week's only contest to send the Midshipmen to another 10-win season under Ken Niumatalolo, who continues to quietly build one of the most impressive coaching resumes in the country. It's fair to wonder when Niumatalolo, like his predecessor Paul Johnson, will get the call from a major-conference school.
College Football Playoff
The Committee's job is never easy, but for the third time in three years the humans have proved superior to their computer predecessors. Alabama was the obvious, easy choice for the top seed. Clemson, despite its general struggles this season, deserved the second spot over Ohio State thanks to the tiebreaker of a conference championship. And Washington, 12-1 Pac-12 winner, was a shoo-in with the blowout win over Colorado.
2016's bracket demonstrates once again why the Playoff should forever be constrained to four teams. An eight-team bracket would have included two-loss teams in Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma and either Wisconsin or USC. None of those teams are remotely worthy of playing a championship this season, including Penn State, which lost to Michigan by 39 points.
There has been, and will continue to be, a great deal of debate about Ohio State's inclusion. When conference championships are the most important factor (as they always have been in college football), including a squad that failed to win its own conference will always be hard to swallow. But the uncomfortable truth is, just as in 2014, it's very clear the Buckeyes are one of the four best teams in the country. The loss to Penn State was halfway between a fluke and a miracle, and OSU is unquestionably a better team. The evidence is all over the 2016 season. If the Playoff really is about matching up the four most deserving, worthy teams, Ohio State has to be the choice.
Pac-12 Report
There's not much to say about Washington's dominant victory over Colorado. The Huskies have been on the upswing longer than the Buffaloes and thus had a sizeable talent edge. Colorado probably needed a great game from its offense and a few breaks to beat UW; neither of those things happened. Washington was able to calm down and breathe after a back-and-forth first half, at which point things unraveled for the Buffs.
Give CU a lot of credit for battling back after the Huskies scored a distressingly easy opening drive touchdown; the Buffaloes tied it up by the end of the first quarter and got the ball back with a chance to take the lead (and put some real pressure on favored UW). But both offenses stalled out after the Huskies regained the lead, and the back-to-back picks to start the second half effectively ended the game.
I'm curious as to why Colorado stuck with injured senior quarterback Sefo Liufao for the majority of the game. After Liufao left the game in the first quarter, Steven Montez performed reasonably well, and the freshman had proved throughout the year he was more than capable when filling in for Liufao. But Liufao returned to the game, despite Montez leading the Buffaloes to their only TD, and threw three killer interceptions. I don't know if Mike MacIntyre was just being loyal to his senior, but it was interesting to see the superior passer in Montez on the bench as the lead grew for UW in the second half.
Heisman Watch
My choice is still Texas RB D'onta Foreman, who went for a superhuman 2,000 yards in 11 games this season for a middling offense and a team that was often behind in the second half. As usual, the voters have nominated a slew of undeserving players instead, choosing to leave Foreman out of the finalists entirely. For some reason Oklahoma WR Dede Westbrook, who has zero chance of winning, was invited. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who had a very disappointing year, made the cut, as did Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, who would go down as the worst winner in Heisman history after his atrocious performance in November.
But the oddest choice is easily Michigan linebacker/safety/returner hybrid Jabrill Peppers, who is clearly in New York because voters decided Michigan, as one of the best teams in the nation this year, had to have a Heisman finalist. Peppers is a good player and did a lot of all-around work for the Wolverines, but this has to feel like a sick joke to Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second last season despite setting a new FBS total all-purpose yardage record. Look at Peppers' year and decide for yourself: 47 solo tackles (72 overall), four sacks, one interception, one forced fumble. He also rushed for 167 yards and had 570 yards on kick and punt returns. Once again: is this a joke?
Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield is the last finalist, and he's again my choice to to win from another frustrating group of candidates (Mayfield was also my fallback option among the finalists last year). I think his struggles in OU's two losses early in the year, which eliminated the Sooners from Playoff contention, should have been enough to drop Mayfield from the running, but now that he's in New York he's once again the best option in a pool of undeserving players.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Another good argument for the four teams in the Playoff is that all four have one or zero losses. These are the only Power Five teams with records of that quality. Penn State can whine all it wants about winning "the nation's best conference" (we'll see about that during the bowl season). It doesn't matter. The Nittany Lions only have to look to their 2-2 start, which included losses to 8-4 Pittsburgh and a 39-point shellacking to Michigan, to see why they weren't seriously considered for the Playoff.
As for Michigan, well, the Wolverines are whining even more than Penn State (that's what you get when you hire Jim Harbaugh), but maybe you shouldn't lose two of your last three games and fail to win even a share of a division title. I was suspicious of UM all year, and that upset at Iowa combined with the collapse against Ohio State merely served to confirm this isn't a top-five squad. It's hard to feel bad for a team that completely controls its own destiny and loses twice at the end of the season.
2016 Stanzi Awards
There were two awards in this abbreviated week, and shockingly, both went to previous winners. That means our field of finalists expands to 14, a truly impressive number that demonstrates how fantastic this year has been.
Week 14 Awards
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
Opponent: Ohio
Performance: Two INT, won by six
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
2016 Stanzi Award Winner
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
49 players: tied with 1
It was always going to be Deshaun Watson. The Clemson passer really outdid himself in the second half of the season, building an insurmountable lead that even late charges from the likes of Baker Mayfield, Troy Williams and Dallas Davis couldn't top. Congratulations, Deshaun!
That's it for the regular season! I'll be back next week with the start of my bowl previews. It's been another weird, wonderful year of college football, and the marvelous insanity of bowl season promises even more riches to come. Thanks for reading.
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Last Thoughts
National Overview
Rivalry Week provided even more delights than anticipated, turning the long Thanksgiving holiday into a celebration of the best college football has to offer. There was some quality #MACtion in the mid-week, an Apple Cup coronation for Washington, Air Force taking out Boise State for the third straight year and Western Michigan finishing 12-0, all before Saturday!
The excitement continued into the weekend, with a thrilling finish at The Shoe, a nail-biter in Boulder, a huge upset from Kentucky and a plethora of photo-finishes in heated rivalry games. When the dust cleared, we had our division winners, though they didn't arrive without some blood, sweat and tears (and whining. Thanks, Jim Harbaugh).
Friday night marks the first time this season a team can truly lock up a spot in the Playoff, when Washington and Colorado meet in the Pac-12 Championship. If the Huskies win, they're in*. Colorado can still conceivably make the final four, but it would take a lot falling the right way for the Buffaloes. CU can dream, but it's unlikely.
*Provided there are no shenanigans from the Committee
Earlier in the evening, Ohio and Western Michigan will play for the MAC title. Fortunately, just as in the Pac-12, this will be a matchup of teams that didn't play in the regular season. WMU is the heavy favorite for a reason - the Broncos are aiming for 13-0, after all - and should win, but the pressure as the undefeated mid-major looking ahead to major-bowl glory has tripped up several teams in the past.
We kick off Saturday with two official conference championship games, along with another contest that will decide a league title. First, there's the delightful American Championship, pitting a pair of nine-win teams in Temple and Navy in Annapolis. The Midshipmen could complete a marvelous 11-2 campaign with wins here and against rival Army next week, while the Owls are looking to rebound from a loss in the title game last year. Navy is the slight favorite, and though I love this team, I have to pick against it. Temple has the third-best defense in the country behind Alabama and Michigan and should do enough to slow the option to secure the win.
Next, there's Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game. This should be a barnburner after Tech took the first meeting earlier in the year in a 55-52 shootout. Expect more of the same, as both the Bulldogs and Hilltoppers rank in the top 15 nationally in offense. Quarterbacks Mike White (WKU) and Ryan Higgins (LTU) will both top 4,000 yards passing by season's end, and both squads also boast 1,000-yard receivers and running backs. Ultimately, I like Western, playing at home, with a superior defense (a respectable 28th nationally), to prevail.
The Bedlam Game is in Norman this year, with Oklahoma rightly favored to rip off nine straight wins after that 1-2 nonconference performance. Oklahoma State is pretty good, and an upset of the Sooners - along with some Committee sympathy regarding that officiating fiasco in the Central Michigan game - could potentially put the Cowboys in the Playoff. The more likely scenario is OU simply winning out. Oklahoma won't make the CFP without a lot of help, though.
The midday slate should see another squad punch a ticket to the final four, when Alabama meets Florida in the SEC Championship for the second consecutive year. The Gators have a very good defense, but Bama's is better, and this matchup lost a lot of luster with UF's blowout loss to Florida State last week. Florida doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide, who should check another box on the "2016 National Championship Run" to-do list.
It would have been laughable before this season began to suggest the Mountain West title game would be held in Laramie, but that's where the league finds itself after Wyoming knocked off Boise State and San Diego State in the regular season to grab the tiebreaker over the Aztecs. The conference had a terrible day last Saturday, as all three of the aforementioned squads (the best teams in the MWC) lost, including blowouts for SDSU and Wyoming. Even though it's on the road, I like San Diego State to rebound from the loss to the Cowboys a few weeks back and claim back-to-back titles.
Prime time brings the final two games, and possibly the other two Playoff bids, into the spotlight. The ACC Championship should be a mere coronation as Clemson takes on a highly flawed Virginia Tech team. The Big Ten title game is another story. Wisconsin won the weaker division, but played the two best teams in the East, so the schedule difference is moot. The Badgers were clearly the best squad over the first half of the season. Penn State was the better team over the second half, but it remains to be seen how much of that was because of a weak schedule. Wisconsin has the superior defense; PSU, the superior offense. I think the Nittany Lions are more likely to win.
The question is, what does that mean for the Playoff?
Playoff Poll
Things have gotten very interesting.
First Tier
Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Ohio State
Here's the problem with the Big Ten getting two teams in: Ohio State would be bypassing a Power Five champion to do so. Alabama and Clemson are locks with wins this week; Washington is only slightly less so. If OSU is getting in, it should be at the expense of its own conference winner. Anything else would be an outrage.
Second Tier
Penn State
Wisconsin
If the Nittany Lions win, they'll have a better argument for jumping the Buckeyes thanks to their head-to-head triumph. If the Badgers win, their argument is weaker, given that they lost to OSU. Both teams would benefit significantly from a Colorado win Friday.
Third Tier
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Western Michigan
The Sooners need help. As in, Alabama, Clemson and Washington all losing kind of help. Okie State needs even more. Colorado would have an argument with a win, but only a slim one (that loss to USC was killer). As for WMU, well, we can always dream.
Pac-12 Report
As expected, USC and Stanford won their non-league contests. I predicted Cal would beat UCLA, resulting in a needed coaching change in L.A., but even I didn't expect the 36-10 thrashing the Bears laid on the Bruins. Arizona running all over ASU was also a bit unexpected, but Oregon State knocking off Oregon wasn't.
Fortunately, the two best teams won, so we were at least gifted with a legitimate conference title game. Washington hadn't looked that good against a quality opponent in some time, so good on the Huskies for showing up in a big way just in time for the Committee to take note. Colorado suffered some very noticeable big-game jitters, dropping passes all over the place, fumbling and allowing special-teams breakdowns. In the end, however, the Buffs got a deserved victory to complete the comeback story of the year in college football.
It's worth stating once again what a remarkable turnaround this has been. Colorado won five games (five!) in its first five SEASONS in the Pac-12. Just last year, the Buffaloes went 1-8 in conference play. This season saw CU go a magical 8-1 and vanquish a decades' worth of demons en route to the South title. It's been amazing to watch, and if it doesn't earn Mike MacIntyre national Coach of the Year honors the award means nothing.
I feel it's necessary to reiterate these things because the charmed ride probably comes to an end Friday in Santa Clara. Make no mistake: Colorado is good enough to beat Washington. The secret to the Buffs' success has been their lockdown defense, which was the best in the conference this season, beating out even Washington's (despite coming against a tougher schedule). CU's offense is no joke, either. But after a meltdown against USC and a shaky start with ASU, UW has come roaring back to life.
The Huskies again look like the unquestioned best team in the Pac-12, and after a pair of close, emotionally-charged games at home the past two weeks, Colorado is ripe for a first-quarter reality check. That may not have cost them against a bad offensive team in Utah, but it will against Washington. The Huskies are balanced and explosive offensively, and their superior talent level on the lines will make this game an uphill battle for the Buffs. I can envision scenarios that end in Colorado wins (and what a story that would be!), but the more likely outcome is that Washington will be the Pac-12 champion.
Heisman Watch
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
Barring an incredible performance this week, the Heisman should be Foreman's. It's amazing to think Derrick Henry could win the award last year with inferior numbers running behind Alabama's line, while Foreman might not even make the ceremony despite carrying the inept Longhorns with a nation-leading 2,028 yards in just 11 games.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Back to his usual efficient, defense-shredding ways, Browing made the Apple Cup a laugher in the first quarter thanks to three quick touchdown passes. He's now just the third QB in Pac-12 history with at least 40 TD's in a season, and another nice performance against Colorado's stout D should earn him a trip to New York.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
He threw two early picks against Auburn as Bama got off to a slow start, then guided the Crimson Tide to a comfortable 30-12 win over their rival. Hurts has performed at a level far beyond his years this season, but even so, a game like he had last week should have dropped him in the rankings. It would have, if not for...
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
It's a testament to Jackson's prolific numbers that he even remains on the list. No Heisman winner has ever had a two-game stretch to end the season as bad as the one Jackson just had, capped by a four-turnover disaster in the second half to lose to Kentucky at home. This guy is going to win the Heisman? Get out of here.
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
With a masterful 19-for-25, three-TD effort in WMU's thrashing of Toledo, Terrell finishes the regular season with 30 TD passes to just one interception. It's inconceivable that the most important player in Broncos history would miss out on the ceremony, but I doubt he'll receive enough late-ballot votes to get there.
Random Thoughts and Observations
How's that nine-game schedule treating you, Big Ten? In the very first year since moving up to an adult schedule, the conference suffered controversy and agony as the third- and fourth-best teams in the league ended up playing for the title. This is what can happen when you ask your schools to actually play the majority of their peers. Who knows what happens if Ohio State doesn't have to travel to West division winner Wisconsin a week before losing at Penn State, or how Michigan fares without that late-season slugest at cross-division foe Iowa? In previous years, such matchups might have been avoided.
The Big 12 has felt the pain of a nine-game conference slate in recent years. In a bit of delicious irony, the league that claimed it didn't need another conference game because of its title contest immediately rebranded with the slogan "ONE TRUE CHAMPION" upon dropping to 10 members - then promptly awarded TCU and Baylor a co-championship in 2014 and missed the initial Playoff entirely. It turns out that, yes, forcing the entire league to play an additional game within the conference makes things more difficult on the national level.
Of course, the Pac-12 is well familiar with this, having adopted the nine-game schedule in 2006, long before the other Power conferences ever dreamed of it. It's been devastating to the league's national championship hopes; in 2006 (USC), 2008 (USC), 2011 (Oregon), 2012 (Oregon), and 2015 (Stanford), the Pac-12 champ suffered a conference loss that kept it out of the BCS Championship or Playoff. The effect has been so detrimental there have been calls for the Pac-12 to return to an eight-game schedule, but with the Big 12 - and more importantly, the Big Ten - now on board, it seems much more likely this is a route all conferences will ultimately be forced to choose.
It's certainly the way the ACC is going to have to go. The SEC has long maintained its internal quality excuses it from such lesser-conference trivialities, but if the other four Power conferences band together the SEC will eventually have no choice. That's means it's up to the ACC to get with the program, and as I said, it simply has to happen soon. Clemson's run will end this year, and there are no future guaranteed Playoff entrants from the ACC. With nearly half a conference of dead weight/basketball schools, it's already the weakest of the Power Five on a year-by-year basis, and an eight-game schedule is going to cost the league a final four spot in the very near future. The smart, proactive move would be to go to nine games at the earliest possible date (probably 2018). But we'll see if it takes missing out on the Playoff first.
2016 Stanzi Awards
What a send-off! After the quietest week of the season, Week 13 came through with three individual awards and a trio of Double Stanzis, including two that landed their heroes squarely on the short list for the ultimate trophy. There's only one more week, but enough finalists are still playing that there's some intrigue left. Can someone come from behind and steal this thing from Deshaun Watson?
Week 13 Awards
Dane Evans, Tulsa
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh
Opponent: Syracuse
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 15
David Washington, Old Dominion
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: One INT (for TD), two FUM, won by 14
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Sefo Liufao, Colorado
Opponent: Utah
Performance: Two FUM, won by five
Troy Williams, Utah
Opponent: Colorado
Performance: Two INT, lost by five
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Purdue
Performance: Three INT, won by two
David Blough, Purdue
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, lost by two
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Matt Linehan, Idaho
Opponent: South Alabama
Performance: Three INT, wony by seven
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: Idaho
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
51 players: tied with 1
Rivalry Week provided even more delights than anticipated, turning the long Thanksgiving holiday into a celebration of the best college football has to offer. There was some quality #MACtion in the mid-week, an Apple Cup coronation for Washington, Air Force taking out Boise State for the third straight year and Western Michigan finishing 12-0, all before Saturday!
The excitement continued into the weekend, with a thrilling finish at The Shoe, a nail-biter in Boulder, a huge upset from Kentucky and a plethora of photo-finishes in heated rivalry games. When the dust cleared, we had our division winners, though they didn't arrive without some blood, sweat and tears (and whining. Thanks, Jim Harbaugh).
Friday night marks the first time this season a team can truly lock up a spot in the Playoff, when Washington and Colorado meet in the Pac-12 Championship. If the Huskies win, they're in*. Colorado can still conceivably make the final four, but it would take a lot falling the right way for the Buffaloes. CU can dream, but it's unlikely.
*Provided there are no shenanigans from the Committee
Earlier in the evening, Ohio and Western Michigan will play for the MAC title. Fortunately, just as in the Pac-12, this will be a matchup of teams that didn't play in the regular season. WMU is the heavy favorite for a reason - the Broncos are aiming for 13-0, after all - and should win, but the pressure as the undefeated mid-major looking ahead to major-bowl glory has tripped up several teams in the past.
We kick off Saturday with two official conference championship games, along with another contest that will decide a league title. First, there's the delightful American Championship, pitting a pair of nine-win teams in Temple and Navy in Annapolis. The Midshipmen could complete a marvelous 11-2 campaign with wins here and against rival Army next week, while the Owls are looking to rebound from a loss in the title game last year. Navy is the slight favorite, and though I love this team, I have to pick against it. Temple has the third-best defense in the country behind Alabama and Michigan and should do enough to slow the option to secure the win.
Next, there's Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game. This should be a barnburner after Tech took the first meeting earlier in the year in a 55-52 shootout. Expect more of the same, as both the Bulldogs and Hilltoppers rank in the top 15 nationally in offense. Quarterbacks Mike White (WKU) and Ryan Higgins (LTU) will both top 4,000 yards passing by season's end, and both squads also boast 1,000-yard receivers and running backs. Ultimately, I like Western, playing at home, with a superior defense (a respectable 28th nationally), to prevail.
The Bedlam Game is in Norman this year, with Oklahoma rightly favored to rip off nine straight wins after that 1-2 nonconference performance. Oklahoma State is pretty good, and an upset of the Sooners - along with some Committee sympathy regarding that officiating fiasco in the Central Michigan game - could potentially put the Cowboys in the Playoff. The more likely scenario is OU simply winning out. Oklahoma won't make the CFP without a lot of help, though.
The midday slate should see another squad punch a ticket to the final four, when Alabama meets Florida in the SEC Championship for the second consecutive year. The Gators have a very good defense, but Bama's is better, and this matchup lost a lot of luster with UF's blowout loss to Florida State last week. Florida doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide, who should check another box on the "2016 National Championship Run" to-do list.
It would have been laughable before this season began to suggest the Mountain West title game would be held in Laramie, but that's where the league finds itself after Wyoming knocked off Boise State and San Diego State in the regular season to grab the tiebreaker over the Aztecs. The conference had a terrible day last Saturday, as all three of the aforementioned squads (the best teams in the MWC) lost, including blowouts for SDSU and Wyoming. Even though it's on the road, I like San Diego State to rebound from the loss to the Cowboys a few weeks back and claim back-to-back titles.
Prime time brings the final two games, and possibly the other two Playoff bids, into the spotlight. The ACC Championship should be a mere coronation as Clemson takes on a highly flawed Virginia Tech team. The Big Ten title game is another story. Wisconsin won the weaker division, but played the two best teams in the East, so the schedule difference is moot. The Badgers were clearly the best squad over the first half of the season. Penn State was the better team over the second half, but it remains to be seen how much of that was because of a weak schedule. Wisconsin has the superior defense; PSU, the superior offense. I think the Nittany Lions are more likely to win.
The question is, what does that mean for the Playoff?
Playoff Poll
Things have gotten very interesting.
First Tier
Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Ohio State
Here's the problem with the Big Ten getting two teams in: Ohio State would be bypassing a Power Five champion to do so. Alabama and Clemson are locks with wins this week; Washington is only slightly less so. If OSU is getting in, it should be at the expense of its own conference winner. Anything else would be an outrage.
Second Tier
Penn State
Wisconsin
If the Nittany Lions win, they'll have a better argument for jumping the Buckeyes thanks to their head-to-head triumph. If the Badgers win, their argument is weaker, given that they lost to OSU. Both teams would benefit significantly from a Colorado win Friday.
Third Tier
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Western Michigan
The Sooners need help. As in, Alabama, Clemson and Washington all losing kind of help. Okie State needs even more. Colorado would have an argument with a win, but only a slim one (that loss to USC was killer). As for WMU, well, we can always dream.
Pac-12 Report
As expected, USC and Stanford won their non-league contests. I predicted Cal would beat UCLA, resulting in a needed coaching change in L.A., but even I didn't expect the 36-10 thrashing the Bears laid on the Bruins. Arizona running all over ASU was also a bit unexpected, but Oregon State knocking off Oregon wasn't.
Fortunately, the two best teams won, so we were at least gifted with a legitimate conference title game. Washington hadn't looked that good against a quality opponent in some time, so good on the Huskies for showing up in a big way just in time for the Committee to take note. Colorado suffered some very noticeable big-game jitters, dropping passes all over the place, fumbling and allowing special-teams breakdowns. In the end, however, the Buffs got a deserved victory to complete the comeback story of the year in college football.
It's worth stating once again what a remarkable turnaround this has been. Colorado won five games (five!) in its first five SEASONS in the Pac-12. Just last year, the Buffaloes went 1-8 in conference play. This season saw CU go a magical 8-1 and vanquish a decades' worth of demons en route to the South title. It's been amazing to watch, and if it doesn't earn Mike MacIntyre national Coach of the Year honors the award means nothing.
I feel it's necessary to reiterate these things because the charmed ride probably comes to an end Friday in Santa Clara. Make no mistake: Colorado is good enough to beat Washington. The secret to the Buffs' success has been their lockdown defense, which was the best in the conference this season, beating out even Washington's (despite coming against a tougher schedule). CU's offense is no joke, either. But after a meltdown against USC and a shaky start with ASU, UW has come roaring back to life.
The Huskies again look like the unquestioned best team in the Pac-12, and after a pair of close, emotionally-charged games at home the past two weeks, Colorado is ripe for a first-quarter reality check. That may not have cost them against a bad offensive team in Utah, but it will against Washington. The Huskies are balanced and explosive offensively, and their superior talent level on the lines will make this game an uphill battle for the Buffs. I can envision scenarios that end in Colorado wins (and what a story that would be!), but the more likely outcome is that Washington will be the Pac-12 champion.
Heisman Watch
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
Barring an incredible performance this week, the Heisman should be Foreman's. It's amazing to think Derrick Henry could win the award last year with inferior numbers running behind Alabama's line, while Foreman might not even make the ceremony despite carrying the inept Longhorns with a nation-leading 2,028 yards in just 11 games.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Back to his usual efficient, defense-shredding ways, Browing made the Apple Cup a laugher in the first quarter thanks to three quick touchdown passes. He's now just the third QB in Pac-12 history with at least 40 TD's in a season, and another nice performance against Colorado's stout D should earn him a trip to New York.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
He threw two early picks against Auburn as Bama got off to a slow start, then guided the Crimson Tide to a comfortable 30-12 win over their rival. Hurts has performed at a level far beyond his years this season, but even so, a game like he had last week should have dropped him in the rankings. It would have, if not for...
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
It's a testament to Jackson's prolific numbers that he even remains on the list. No Heisman winner has ever had a two-game stretch to end the season as bad as the one Jackson just had, capped by a four-turnover disaster in the second half to lose to Kentucky at home. This guy is going to win the Heisman? Get out of here.
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
With a masterful 19-for-25, three-TD effort in WMU's thrashing of Toledo, Terrell finishes the regular season with 30 TD passes to just one interception. It's inconceivable that the most important player in Broncos history would miss out on the ceremony, but I doubt he'll receive enough late-ballot votes to get there.
Random Thoughts and Observations
How's that nine-game schedule treating you, Big Ten? In the very first year since moving up to an adult schedule, the conference suffered controversy and agony as the third- and fourth-best teams in the league ended up playing for the title. This is what can happen when you ask your schools to actually play the majority of their peers. Who knows what happens if Ohio State doesn't have to travel to West division winner Wisconsin a week before losing at Penn State, or how Michigan fares without that late-season slugest at cross-division foe Iowa? In previous years, such matchups might have been avoided.
The Big 12 has felt the pain of a nine-game conference slate in recent years. In a bit of delicious irony, the league that claimed it didn't need another conference game because of its title contest immediately rebranded with the slogan "ONE TRUE CHAMPION" upon dropping to 10 members - then promptly awarded TCU and Baylor a co-championship in 2014 and missed the initial Playoff entirely. It turns out that, yes, forcing the entire league to play an additional game within the conference makes things more difficult on the national level.
Of course, the Pac-12 is well familiar with this, having adopted the nine-game schedule in 2006, long before the other Power conferences ever dreamed of it. It's been devastating to the league's national championship hopes; in 2006 (USC), 2008 (USC), 2011 (Oregon), 2012 (Oregon), and 2015 (Stanford), the Pac-12 champ suffered a conference loss that kept it out of the BCS Championship or Playoff. The effect has been so detrimental there have been calls for the Pac-12 to return to an eight-game schedule, but with the Big 12 - and more importantly, the Big Ten - now on board, it seems much more likely this is a route all conferences will ultimately be forced to choose.
It's certainly the way the ACC is going to have to go. The SEC has long maintained its internal quality excuses it from such lesser-conference trivialities, but if the other four Power conferences band together the SEC will eventually have no choice. That's means it's up to the ACC to get with the program, and as I said, it simply has to happen soon. Clemson's run will end this year, and there are no future guaranteed Playoff entrants from the ACC. With nearly half a conference of dead weight/basketball schools, it's already the weakest of the Power Five on a year-by-year basis, and an eight-game schedule is going to cost the league a final four spot in the very near future. The smart, proactive move would be to go to nine games at the earliest possible date (probably 2018). But we'll see if it takes missing out on the Playoff first.
2016 Stanzi Awards
What a send-off! After the quietest week of the season, Week 13 came through with three individual awards and a trio of Double Stanzis, including two that landed their heroes squarely on the short list for the ultimate trophy. There's only one more week, but enough finalists are still playing that there's some intrigue left. Can someone come from behind and steal this thing from Deshaun Watson?
Week 13 Awards
Dane Evans, Tulsa
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh
Opponent: Syracuse
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 15
David Washington, Old Dominion
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: One INT (for TD), two FUM, won by 14
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Sefo Liufao, Colorado
Opponent: Utah
Performance: Two FUM, won by five
Troy Williams, Utah
Opponent: Colorado
Performance: Two INT, lost by five
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Purdue
Performance: Three INT, won by two
David Blough, Purdue
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, lost by two
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Matt Linehan, Idaho
Opponent: South Alabama
Performance: Three INT, wony by seven
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: Idaho
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
51 players: tied with 1
Look at that! 12 multiple-award finalists, 51 other one-off efforts, and a down-to-the-wire race that won't be settled until the conference championships end. This has been a season for the ages, one that will go down in Stanzi lore.
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