End of Summer Thoughts

Overview

Here we are. The 2010 college football season is just hours away. Campuses are buzzing with anticipation and players are surely chomping at the bit to start meaningful games again. It’s the most wonderful time of the year.

I’ve said before that predictions are pointless. I think it’s arrogant for sportswriters to tell people what should happen, and as it turns out it’s even less of a science than was previously believed. A recent study found that sports predictions are actually correct less than 50 percent of the time, meaning that fans could pick the home team in every contest and still beat the average of the so-called experts.

Nevertheless, I know that as a person who writes about a sport I’m expected to make some solid predictions for the future. I’ve decided against a preseason top 25 because such polls have several detrimental effects. The most notable of these are how they do a disservice to “surprise” teams who defy predictions (hello, Oregon State) and how they reward bad teams who begin the season over-ranked (Florida State, for about ten years).

For the same reason I won’t be making a national champion prediction. It’s just too difficult to pick one team out of 120 to win it all and it’s lazy to just pick a favorite like Alabama or Ohio State. Despite my attempts to absorb every bit of information about college football I can, it just isn’t credible for me to make predictions that grandiose.

So I’ve decided to limit myself to picking the conference champions and a Pac-10 preview (the final Pac-10, as a matter of fact), which has been taxing enough in itself. I’ve agonized over how the conference will play out and I’m sure people will disagree with me. I might even change my mind a week from now. But that’s the beauty of this sport.

Before I get to the predictions, though, I have to mention the latest round of conference musical chairs. In short, Nevada and Fresno State have shockingly defected from the WAC to the Mountain West, which combined with Boise State’s exit should effectively gut the WAC, if not destroy it. But BYU has abandoned the Mountain West in favor of an independent schedule starting in 2011. In the end, the WAC will only have six remaining teams and the Mountain West will have a round ten.

I feel for the remaining WAC squads. I really don’t know what they’ll do, because none of them is high-profile enough to merit an invite from another conference. San Jose State, Hawaii, New Mexico State, Utah State and Idaho are in deep trouble. Only Louisiana Tech has a chance as a future conference member (logic would say the Bulldogs join the much-closer Sun Belt).

I dislike the idea of independents in general, but if any school was to suddenly go that route it makes sense that it would be BYU. Reports indicate the Cougars intend to become “Notre Dame West,” which is logical. Both are private schools with religious affiliations. The only difference is that BYU has actually been good lately. So maybe Notre Dame should become “BYU East.”

Conference Champions

ACC: Miami (FL)

I mentioned in a previous post that I saw North Carolina as a possible national title contender, but I’m backing off that prediction. I don’t like what I’ve read about the Tar Heels off-field issues of late, which could be a big distraction. Any of four teams from the Coastal Division could beat the best team from the Atlantic Division.

Big East: Pittsburgh

Not exactly going out on a limb here, but that’s because the Panthers should breeze through the suddenly rather weak Big East. West Virginia will pose a threat, but that’s about it. Pitt still needs a quarterback, though.

Big 10: Ohio State

I don’t buy Iowa and I don’t buy Penn State. The Buckeyes are the best team in this conference and regardless of my feelings about Terrelle Pryor they should continue their dominance in the final year of the 11-team Big 10.

Big 12: Oklahoma

The Sooners rebound from their injury-plagued 2009 season and return to form. I said before that I like Oklahoma as a potential national champion and I’m sticking with it. Texas should take a little step back and I don’t think Nebraska will be as good as advertised.

Conference USA: Houston

Houston all the way. The Cougars melted down in their last two games but have a lot of firepower. How’s this for offense? The team returns their top four rushers and top four receivers, including three 1,000 pass-catchers. There’s also QB Case Keenum, who could challenge the NCAA’s all-time passing record.

Mountain West: TCU

Tough choice over Utah, but the Horned Frogs are almost the same team as the one that went 12-0 in the regular season last year. You can’t pick against them. BYU seems unlikely to put up much of a fight in their last season in the league.

MAC: Temple

The Owls should have won the conference last year and this year I have them winning it out of the West. I do like Northern Illinois in the East, but Temple’s the team to beat.

SEC: Alabama

I’ve heard good things about Georgia as a possible surprise team in the East, but odds are good that Alabama, the league’s most talented squad, will repeat. They’re just way too powerful.

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee

The only conference I know little about. Troy is also a favorite and I have seen them play a few times, but Middle Tennessee is my choice. The Sun Belt has traditionally been the SEC’s whipping boy, but individual teams (like Troy) have proved that they can play with top teams on a game-by-game basis.

MAC: Boise State

It’ll be Boise State by a lot. The poor, dying WAC will get one last BCS bowl berth (its fourth in five years) before its remaining teams get sent to football purgatory. The Broncos face major non-conference tests versus Virginia Tech and Oregon State, but an undefeated WAC season is a foregone conclusion.

Pac-10 preview

I mentioned in my last post the significance of starts lost to injury and turnover margin. However, in the Pac-10, I believe there’s an even more important metric for determining success.

Quick, when was the last time the conference champion had a quarterback who was A) an underclassman and/or B) a first-year starter?

Sorry, Oregon and OSU fans, but this is an ugly reality that no one – not talk radio nor columnists nor TV personalities has addressed. Let’s look at the signal-callers for the previous year’s league champions (with team in parentheses):

2009: (Oregon) Jeremiah Masoli, junior, second-year starter.

2008: (USC) Mark Sanchez, redshirt junior, first-year starter (but saw significant time in 2007 due to injury).

2007: (USC, ASU) John David Booty, redshirt senior, second-year starter; Rudy Carpenter, redshirt junior, first-year starter.

2006: (USC, Cal) John David Booty, redshirt junior, first-year starter; Nate Longshore, redshirt junior, first-year starter.

2005: (USC) Matt Leinart, redshirt senior, third-year starter.

2004: (USC) Matt Leinart, redshirt junior, second-year starter.

2003: (USC) Matt Leinart, redshirt sophomore, first-year starter.

2002: (Washington State, USC) Jason Gesser, redshirt senior, third-year starter; Carson Palmer, senior, fourth-year starter.

2001: (Oregon) Joey Harrington, redshirt senior, third-year starter.

2000: (Washington, Oregon, Oregon State) Marques Tuiasosopo, senior, third-year starter; Joey Harrington, redshirt junior, second-year starter, Jonathan Smith, redshirt senior, second-year starter.

That's seven seniors and seven juniors, almost all of which had also redshirted. There's a single underclassman, and you may recognize him as one of the greatest college football players of all time in Matt Leinart. That is astounding (though it does fit my belief that veteran QB = wins) and does not bode well for young Darron Thomas and Ryan Katz of the Oregon schools. If a quarterback is starting for the first time, underclassman status is almost a death knell for conference title hopes.

So who are the veterans who fit the profile this season? The two most high-profile quarterbacks are Washington’s Jake Locker (redshirt senior) and Stanford’s Andrew Luck (redshirt sophomore), two teams that have been touted by some commentators as potential darkhorse champions. There’s also Kevin Riley at Cal, a guy who’s been around a while but never put it all together – yet.

Will one of those teams win the Pac-10? It seems unlikely to me. Cal has disappointed for the past three seasons, as it appears defensive coordinators have caught up with former offensive genius Jeff Tedford’s system. Riley does have some weapons, though - like running back Shane Vereen - and the Bears have a lot of talent on the roster. Cal is still dangerous, but I doubt they win it all.

Washington has improved dramatically since the arrival of Steve Sarkisian, but going from 5-7 to conference champs is just such a huge step for a team to make in one season. Locker, while supremely talented, has still yet to become a complete quarterback, and the Huskies defense is way behind their offense. They’ll have to win a lot of shootouts, and there’s no question they’re still only third best in the Northwest.

That leaves Stanford, who ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit (and the magazine’s survey of Pac-10 players) picked to win the league. Of the three, I’d have to say Stanford has the best shot. They’re still too slow defensively and they lost stud running back Toby Gerheart, but Luck is probably good enough to compensate for a lot of that. Not all of it, though. They're scary, but I still don’t think the Cardinal win the Pac-10.

If you count out WSU, ASU and UCLA (which I will, with confidence), that leaves the usual suspects and top teams from last season: Oregon, OSU, USC and Arizona.

Arizona has received the largest range of predictions from analysts, from as low as seventh or eight to as high as first. The Wildcats do return a lot of offense and junior quarterback Nick Foles, who should be even better in his second year at the helm. But there are several defensive starters to be replaced. For me, the issue is the Holiday Bowl. The last time anyone saw Arizona, the team was getting wiped off the map and humiliated by Nebraska, 33-0. I just can’t shake the feeling that this team is not mentally or physically tough enough to win the conference (for more evidence, see the choke job at the end of the Oregon game).

USC is likely the most talented team in the league again, but the whole NCAA sanctions thing is a problem. The Trojans are ineligible for the postseason for at least 2010 and thus the Pac-10 title. Even if they finish first, they won’t be declared champions. Also, Lane Kiffin has yet to prove that any part of his head works properly except for his mouth.

Thus, even though it goes against everything I’ve said, we’re back to Oregon and OSU. As I said, this is maddening stuff. Oregon State returns a ton of starters, including all-stars James and Jacquizz Rodgers and NFL-ready tackle Stephen Paea, whom I think is the best lineman the state has seen since Haloti Ngata. The Beavers also face a brutal early schedule, with road trips to Arlington to face TCU at Cowboys Stadium and in Boise versus dreaded Boise State. However, if OSU manages a decent early record for the first time in years (say, 2-1), they could head into their Pac-10 schedule with a lot of confidence. The Beavers conference dates are favorable; they get Oregon, USC and Cal all at home.

Oregon returns even more starters, including their entire offensive line (a very underrated situation for a team). Running backs Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James are scary fast, and the entire defense (which has about 18 rotation players) has speed to burn as well. The Ducks non-conference schedule is easy despite a potential trap game at Tennessee, but they face their three toughest opponents on the road at OSU, Cal and USC.

Which Oregon team will it be, then? It’s a tough choice, but I’m going with Oregon for a few reasons. First, there’s no denying the Ducks have as much or more talent than any of the (eligible) teams in the league. Second, the Ducks are the defending champs and know how to win big games. Third, Oregon does have a fifth-year senior quarterback on the roster in Nate Costa, so the veteran quarterback rule technically won’t be broken. And given Oregon's recent history, Costa may end up seeing some playing time yet. Finally, there’s just not a compelling enough reason to pick someone else. The Pac-10 seems really tight this year, and every team has a significant question mark somewhere. I’m taking the team that won the league by two games in 2009 to win it again in the Civil War on December 4^th.

My final standings:

1) Oregon

2) OSU

3) Stanford

4) Washington

5) USC

6) Cal

7) Arizona

8) UCLA

9) ASU

10) WSU

Let it begin.

National Preview (mid-summer)

July Musings

Well, what a wild and eventful offseason it’s been. I picked up my copy of Phil Steele’s 2010 magazine a couple of weeks ago, which gave me a lot of things to think about. You know college football is on the horizon when Steele’s publication, which I consider the best in the business, comes out.

Conference expansion is the big issue on everyone’s minds, but plenty of other noteworthy events have taken place recently. There’s been player-related turmoil, scandal and embarrassment. Several household coaching names left the college football scene, including Pete Carrol, Mike Leach, Charlie Weis, Bobby Bowden and (briefly) Urban Meyer. Texas Tech is facing a massive, probably deserved lawsuit from Leach, while USC was slapped with sanctions by the NCAA because of Carrol’s activities.

Still, no school felt the sting of bad publicity more than Oregon, which saw its team members commit stupid mistake after stupid mistake, culminating in the season-long suspension and subsequent dismissal of star quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. Masoli’s rags-to-riches-to-rags story should become a cautionary tale for all future athletic stars who see themselves as above the law and can’t grow up. For their part, the Ducks will forever wonder just how good this year’s squad could have been with Masoli at the helm (sadly, probably national title good).

But the Oregon situation is no longer the foremost issue on the mind of the national audience, even if it did create the most important position battle in the sport this upcoming season. No, the questions now shift to who the legitimate championship contenders are.

Defending champ Alabama? Certainly. The Tide return three outstanding offensive weapons in quarterback Greg McElroy, receiver Julio Jones and last year’s Heisman winner Mark Ingram at running back. The offensive line is powerful and the special teams are solid, which should make up for the losses the Tide suffered on defense. They won’t be as dominant on that side of the ball but the offense should be more explosive.

Ohio State is a contender, even though I’m not at all sold on Terrelle Pryor yet. The rest of the team is stacked with elite playmakers, particularly on defense, where the Buckeyes look to once again be among the nation’s best. Defensive end Cameron Heyward and cornerback Chimdi Chekwa should lead another lockdown unit for the Scarlet and Gray.

Oklahoma will rebound after a tough year with injuries in 2009 and be a player again. I don’t think OU will win the title, but they’ve definitely got the offensive power to come close with guys like receiver Ryan Broyles and running back DeMarco Murray. The question is whether the young players who had to step up last season, like QB Landry Jones, have learned enough to be great this year.

Tim Tebow’s departure should open up the Florida offense more to suit new quarterback John Brantley. It might be a bit soon to proclaim the Gators championship material, but the fact remains that this team has gone 13-1 in three of the past four years. They’re just very, very good. Along with one of the most hyped recruiting classes in NCAA history, this Florida team will be completely capable of winning the national championship.

So that’s the usual suspects. But everyone will have those teams down as potential championship winners. What’s difficult is finding which of those under-the-radar schools will come out of nowhere and thrust themselves into the race. There’s always a couple every year; some even go on to win it all, such as Oklahoma in 2000 or Ohio State in 2002. While both schools are traditionally powerful, neither was expected to challenge for the title.

Virginia Tech is going to receive a lot of preseason hype, but I just don’t see it. The Hokies will be packing their usual strong defense and running game – both hallmarks of a championship-caliber team – but too much of their potential is based on quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Everyone envisions Taylor as the second coming of Michael Vick, but he’s not a real quarterback yet. Taylor is even less a passer than Terrelle Pryor, and that’s saying something.

Like VT, USC will get a lot of respect based on their name, but they’re just not what they were a few years ago. While Oregon’s off-field issues will certainly open the door for the Trojans to take the Pac-10 again, they aren’t good enough to go undefeated, which is what it will take to make the title game out of that conference. Reasons? First, USC’s overall talent level is down from what it was; second, Lane Kiffin isn’t half the coach Pete Carroll is.

However, I do like a pair of teams out of the ACC, which is a surprise in itself given how weak that league has been of late. I’ve ragged on the conference as much as anyone, but now I can really get behind a couple of squads (and no, it’s not Georgia Tech, who will probably come back to earth a little after their great 2009 run).

I like Miami (FL) a lot based on their personnel. Jacory Harris is a great quarterback, they’ve got some big, speedy, traditional Hurricane wideouts and the defense should be more than adequate. The caveat is their schedule, which is Fresno State-like in its ambitiousness. The Canes travel to both Ohio State and Pittsburgh before October, then face a decent South Florida team at season’s end. In between, they get Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech in conference play. If they win all or nearly all of those games, they’ll be worthy of championship consideration, but that’s quite a feat. Of course, they also have to play my other surprise team, North Carolina.

Butch Davis is a very good college coach, as he proved at Miami. In just a few short years he’s made North Carolina relevant again, building the Tar Heels into a team that looks suspiciously similar to his powerful end-of-the-decade Hurricane squads. UNC was better than their 8-5 record last year indicated and they return all but three starters, including nine players from what was already the ACC’s best defense. Their offense held them back at times last season, but I firmly believe the maxim that “senior quarterback = wins” in college football. With T.J. Yates back behind center and a running game that can only improve, North Carolina is my biggest surprise pick for 2010.

From the non-BCS conferences, it’ll be a couple of traditional powers making their case to be included in the championship talk. TCU is pretty much the exact same team they were last year and their only tough game is their opener against Oregon State, which traditionally gets off to bad starts. They have a great chance to have an undefeated regular season again.

Boise State is in a similar situation, as they’re just much too powerful for any of their league opponents. The Broncos schedule is once again laughably weak, but it’s not really their fault that the WAC is so bad. BSUhas a chance to make their biggest statement in years by getting Oregon State (home) and Virginia Tech (neutral site) to face them this season. In their last year in the WAC, you can’t say they’re not trying. If they beat Tech and OSU they’ll go undefeated, too.

Pac-10 thoughts

It wasn’t just Oregon who saw off-field issues this year. Oregon State had a couple of embarrassing incidents as well (including one for which potential starting quarterback Peter Lalich was given the boot), UCLA recently had three incoming recruits arrested and USC received a two-year bowl ban and scholarship reductions from the NCAA. All in all, not a strong offseason for the Conference of Champions.

You might have noticed that I also didn’t include a single Pac-10 team as a contender for the national championship. None of them deserve it, at least right now. Oregon blew maybe its best chance ever, USC is on a bit of a downswing and Oregon State will be breaking in a new quarterback. As exciting as it is to see the Oregon schools in the same breath as Southern Cal, the truth is that the Pac-10 is full of very good but not great teams this year. Oregon, OSU and USC are likely the top three in some order with Stanford, Cal, Arizona and Washington making up the middle. Arizona State and UCLA are a step below those teams and everyone is miles ahead of Washington State. But teams one through seven all have potential to be the league champ and it’s hard to predict which one will come through. Since 2006, when the league changed to a nine-game conference schedule, there has never been an undefeated team in Pac-10 play (USC and Cal went 7-2 in 2006, USC and Arizona State went 7-2 in 2007, USC went 8-1 in 2008 and Oregon went 8-1 last year). A one-loss conference champion is almost certain, and a two-loss team could clearly still have a shot.

So how to pick a winner? One of the most important aspects of a successful college football team is experience. As I’ve said, a multiple-year starting quarterback is almost always a must, but experience at other positions – particularly along the offensive lines – can never hurt. Even without Masoli, Oregon returns a lot of starters. The Ducks are second in the conference at seventeen and also return both kickers. Washington returns eighteen starters and both kickers, while Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State all return fifteen starters plus their specialists. These numbers generally indicate that a team will perform at least as well as they did the year before. However, returning starters don’t tell the whole story.

Two other very important stats to predict a team’s success are starts lost to injury and turnovers, and both depend to some degree on luck. If a team is lucky, losing very few players to injury and getting a big edge in turnovers, they usually have a good season and will trail off the next year when their luck evens out. For example, last year’s champ Alabama was +19 in turnovers, Rose Bowl winner Ohio State was +17 and undefeated Boise State was +21.

No Pac-10 school reached that kind of extreme, with most schools flirting with about a .500 mark. Unsurprisingly, WSU “led” the league with -7 turnovers, while conference champ Oregon surprisingly had only +2 turnovers. The best rating went to UCLA at +6, followed by Oregon State and Cal at +5 and +4, respectively. Such a small edge shouldn’t mean those teams lose any more than one additional game next year, so the injury factor becomes relevant in predicting how the league will finish next year.

Oregon State had the fewest starts lost to injury in the nation in 2009 with just two (out of a possible 264). The next closest Pac-10 team was UCLA with 14, while the rest of the conference averaged around 20. This is where Washington State fans will shake their heads in dismay: the Cougars had an astonishing 67 starts lost to injury, which led the nation by a wide margin. For reference, the most starts lost in 2008 was Utah’s 51. If you think injuries don’t matter, just look at the tales of the two teams at the top and bottom of that list. WSU went 1-11, with their only win against lowly SMU, and was outgained by a ridiculous 260 yards per game. OSU went 8-5 and just missed the Rose Bowl, finishing second in the conference at +78 yards a game. It's a bad idea to read too much into statistics, but these things do matter.

I’ll come back at the end of the summer and make my official picks for each conference, but I need to think about the teams for a while longer before I do. For now, I’ll give you my thoughts on the future of college football.

Conference expansion

College football has maintained a certain status quo since the Big 12 was formed in 1994, the ACC’s raiding of the Big East notwithstanding. That all came crashing down this spring when news broke that the Big 10 was looking to expand to twelve teams. Of course, everyone’s initial reaction was that Notre Dame, a natural fit, would be the new team. However, the league opted for the next best fit in Nebraska, which has long played an ugly, gritty brand of football like that seen in the Midwest. I have no problem with the Cornhuskers joining the Big 10; it makes sense from a competition standpoint. I do dislike the reason the addition was really made, which is obviously money. The ever-greedy Big 10, already the richest conference TV revenue-wise, wanted the extra cash that would come from having a conference championship game, which the NCAA only allows for conferences that have at least twelve members.

But such is life. The rich get richer. The truly earth-shattering news just a few days later was the revelation that the Pac-10 was looking to expand – not to twelve teams, as people expected, but to an unheard-of sixteen. Even more shocking was the list of schools the league was looking to add – Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and mighty Texas. The potential ramifications for college football were enormous.

As everyone knows by now, the deal fell through at the last minute when Texas backed out. But it’s sobering to think of what the Pac-16 would have meant for college football. Analysts saw sixteen-team conferences as the leagues of the future, envisioning five such superconferences that would run everything in the sport. In that scenario, all mid-major schools would have been cut out of the BCS money entirely, permanently shifting the NCAA landscape to a black-and-white split between haves and have-nots. We likely would have seen something like this:

Pac-16:

Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

(Current) Big 10:

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Mountain West:

Air Force, Baylor, Boise State, BYU, Colorado State, Fresno State, Houston, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, SMU, TCU, UNLV, Utah, Wyoming

SEC:

Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Miami (FL), Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

ACC:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, Wake Forest


I chose the teams based on the original plans of the Pac-10 and Big 10, assuming:

1) It’s likely that the SEC would have made the next move, snagging some of the top East Coast schools in West Virginia, Miami (FL) – a school the conference has long coveted – and Virginia and Virginia Tech, which were rumored to be a package deal.

2) The ACC would have had to move to counter the new SEC’s size and snapped up the majority of the Big East, which is already down to eight schools after the ACC stole its top three teams in 2003.

3) With just twelve teams the Big 10 would have had to expand once again, and probably would have added regional schools in Notre Dame, Iowa State (a natural rival for Iowa) and Nebraska rivals Kansas and Kansas State.

4) The Mountain West, scrambling to keep up, would have retained Utah and added Boise State as planned. For its final six members, it would make sense to take the best teams left, which I saw as Nevada and Fresno State from the WAC, Missouri and Baylor from the splintered Big 12 and Houston and SMU from Conference USA (both teams have a history of success in a BCS-level conference).

If all of that makes your head spin, don’t worry. It demonstrates the potential madness we would have seen had the Pac-16 been formed. In that structure there would be 80 BCS teams, as opposed to the 65 now. However, this system would be anything but inclusive. Right now there’s at least a chance, however minimal, that a smaller team like Utah or Boise State can play their way into a BCS game (and potentially even the national championship). In the superconference era, it would be impossible. The remainder of the mid-majors not invited to the big leagues (largely teams from the MAC, WAC, Sun Belt and Conference USA) would never again have a sniff at the BCS money. And that’s not even accounting for independents Army and Navy, which have traditionally fielded solid teams and are important to the game historically.

I have always been against conference expansion. I believe that with a few exceptions, the conferences as they are work well, ensuring relative fairness and quality of competition. Sure, Notre Dame should probably be in the Big 10 and the East Coast conferences are a little jumbled, but the six BCS conferences and five mid-major conferences that currently exist make sense. The problem isn’t which teams reside where, it’s the BCS itself. But that seems to be a fruitless argument, as we’re stuck with the non-playoff system for several more years.

The BCS has been the cause of the near-Armageddon we’ve seen in the past several years. The horribly weak non-conference scheduling from BCS schools in the past few years is a direct result of teams trying to succeed by playing the BCS’s rules rather than beating good opponents on the field as they should. With better records, conferences can send two teams to BCS bowls, which pay out about $15 million. Conference championship games are pathetic money grabs, nothing more. With more TV revenue a league can leverage its influence into a private network a la the Big 10 and further increase the money each school receives. The reason Texas turned down the Pac-10’s offer at the eleventh hour had nothing to do with conference loyalty; it was because the Pac-10 requires its members to share TV revenue equally and the Big 12 allows Texas to take more than their share. Because Texas acted as if it wanted to leave, though, it managed to milk an even sweeter deal out of the Big 12. Clearly, in this day and age, money is more important to college football than ever before. The full extent of the greed of the sport was on full display this offseason.

As to how the Pac-10’s addition actually shook out, I have mixed feelings. The Pac-10 never needed expansion. It had the best organization of any conference: an even number of members, no phony championship game, five sets of natural in-state rivals. Everything was settled on the field in round-robin fashion – nine games, with each team playing everyone else. However, if the league had to expand, Colorado and Utah were always the most natural additions, particularly geographically. I’ll admit that I like the idea of seeing Ralphie (Colorado’s mascot) charging around Pac-10 fields and Utah adjusting to playing with top competition full-time.

At the same time, though, I’ll miss the old format. People have already started questioning how the conference will split into two divisions. North-South? East-West? The Northwest schools would be furious at being denied their annual trips to the fertile recruiting grounds of southern California, but travel would be split bizarrely if, say, Cal and UCLA played in different divisions. There are also reports that Colorado believes it was promised a spot in the South with UCLA and USC, but the league has denied such rumors. It’s all worked out to be a little bit exciting and a little bit messy, so as fans we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

The 2010 season is fast approaching. I hope you share my excitement and choose to join me again on my blog journey throughout the year. America’s greatest sport will soon return! Let the new season be every bit as glorious as the last.

Post-draft thoughts

Welcome back

It's been a long while since I dropped some football knowledge on the people. I assume that, like me, everyone has been in a depressed stupor since the end of the football year in February. Fear not, citizens! For I have just the antidote: extremely premature draft reactions and college talking points. Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of speculation!

NFL Draft thoughts

The circus that is the pro draft achieved this year what was previously deemed impossible: make the entire event even more ridiculous. You'd think that two days of hyper-intense drafting, trading and rumor-mongering couldn't be topped for sheer insanity. You'd think that, but you'd be wrong. For some reason this year the NFL decided to move only the first round to Thursday afternoon, royally screwing over its entire West Coast constituency in the process. But there was good news - after rounds two and three on Friday, viewers got to see rounds four through seven in their entirety on the weekend! This was one of the most aggravating decisions out of the league in recent memory.

However, I'm invested in the draft more to see how teams weigh talent, potential and character in their draft decisions. For years, the Raiders valued raw talent (read: speed) more than anything else, and they paid the price.

During the 2010 draft, though, something strange happened: the Raiders made great picks. Six of the team's nine draftees were defenders, and two of the three offensive players were linemen. But it wasn't just the spirit of the picks that made the Raiders stand out, it was the individuals they got: nasty interior defenders in LB Rolando McClain and DT Lamarr Houston and a trio of defensive backs that will shore up one of the few weak points of an outstanding defense. The Raiders took a lot of quality college guys, not "potential" players.

I don't want to review the draft for every team, but here are a couple other teams that stood out because of the great college talent they acquired:

Detroit - can you believe it? The woeful Lions had a great draft, starting with the no-brainer selection of DT Ndamukong Suh, the best player in college last season. Then they picked up the supremely talented RB Jahvid Best and a solid CB in Amari Spievey. Those selections alone make the Lions winners... at least until Spetember.

San Fransisco - no doubt about it, the Niners are on their way up. After a disappointing 2009 season in which they should have made the playoffs, San Fran stocked up on can't-miss guys who should help them get over the hump. Highlights include a pair of powerful linemen in OT Anthony Davis and OG Michael Iupati, a very productive college LB in Navorro Bowman and bruising RB Anthony Dixon. Oh yeah, they also snatched up S Taylor Mays, a frighteningly athletic player who could excel under Mike Singletary's guidance. I think the Niners had the best draft this year.

But enough of the NFL. My realm of expertise is the college game, so it is there we shall go.

Spring Report

To say that it's been a weird few months would be a bit of an understatement. From academic and athletic scandals to the bizarre and insulting talk of "superconferences," the road to signing day has never been more twisted. I can't wait until summer begins and we can start to concentrate on the game for real.

First, there's the issue of "superconferences." New Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott has said the league is open to expansion. That's the first problem. The Pac-10 is structured perfectly right now, better than any other conference. It has geographical dominance over its neighbors (the WAC and Mountain West), features five sets of natural rivals separated (mostly) by state lines and draws heavily from the deep talent pool in California. Each team plays every other team, eliminating the need for a sham "conference title" game. There is such little upside to adding two teams (to form a pair of six-team divisions) that I can't fathom how Scott could support this. Every new member option has serious drawbacks. Boise State? Not strong enough academically. BYU? The religion aspect sours the deal. Fresno State? Academics, mediocre recent history. Colorado? Far away, has no in-conference rival. There's always Utah, it's true. But who would you pair them with?

Then there's the Big 10, which has expressed interest in a twelfth team - in particular, Notre Dame - to even out its current awkward eleven-team setup. This makes the most sense of any conference expansion, but for the simple problem that Notre Dame already has a conference. The Fighting Irish play all their other sports in the Big East, so how do you remedy this? Make them join the Big East for football, too? Then that league would have nine teams. Football isn't the only consideration for Notre Dame, even though it's obviously the biggest money-maker. The school would fit in the Big 10 football-wise but no where else.

The final problem is the specter of even larger conferences in the near future. Some commentators have said all the BCS schools should join together in a small number (I've heard four) of what could only be termed "super-superconferences." Quite frankly, if you support this idea you support the death of college football as we know it. In this scenario, the large conferences could permanently keep out all the smaller schools from any important bowls or championship considerations. The rich would only get richer, and eventually the remaining 50 or 60 teams at the FBS level would be forced to move down to lower-division football. It's a horrible future that I sincerely hope is never realized.

That's enough doom and gloom for one post, though. Spring games have been popping up all over the country and that familiar hopeful magic is in the air once again. It's that feeling every team gets around this time - that this year could be "our year" - and it spreads infectiously to their respective universities and fanbases. From what little I've seen of the televised games, it appears that everyone is still in the "working out the kinks stage," though there's no doubt Alabama will be the unquestioned number one team when the first polls are released.

I'm curious to see what Michigan does this year. The Wolverines made strides last season but fell apart. If they don't win seven or eight games this time around I can't see how Rich Rodriguez keeps his job. Les Miles at LSU is another question mark - he lucked into a title in 2007 using Nick Saban's players and has yet to prove that he's any kind of a quality coach. With a bad year he could be gone.

Then there's a guy on the other side of the equation in UNC's Butch Davis. He's built North Carolina into a formidable force and the Tarheels have nine returning defensive starters. They could break through to the BCS this year.

There's also always the question of which mid-major will break into the BCS. Last year we had the unprecedented two in Boise State and TCU - could the Broncos do it yet again? The potential in certainly there; the usual Charmin-soft schedule, combined with the fact that people now recognize that BSU is really good should translate into lots of poll votes. If only the Broncos could convince those pesky BCS computers! You know what would solve that problem... a playoff. But that would be crazy. Right, NCAA?

The Oregon "situation"

If it were any other school, I wouldn't bother. But as a lifelong fan and current student of the University of Oregon, it would be remiss of me to let the events of the last few months go unaddressed.

Oregon, as everyone ought to know by now, saw some of its darkest and most embarrassing days as a football program following the end of the 2009 season. Players were cited for drunk driving, fighting, harassment and theft. Speculation whirled among members of the press that Oregon players thought they were above the law. When WR Jamere Holland was dismissed after an expletive-laden rant against head coach Chip Kelly's suspension of LB Kiki Alonso, a local columnist opined that Kelly had lost control of the team.

The situation in Eugene was very, very ugly. Kelly had to take a stand on personal conduct to save his team's image. Without going into detail on each player and punishment, I can say that generally his decisions were sound. But that's not main issue any longer.

During and after the period in which the handful of players were cited for their various transgressions, a point of view emerged. It began, most likely, on the internet, where Oregon fans could discuss and compare their team with fans from across the country. This point of view stated that Duck fans should "keep things in perspective" and remember that most programs go through rough patches. Citing Florida's recent arrest record, Miami's infamous lawless years and rival Oregon State's similar situation a few years ago, the position tried to explain that Oregon really wasn't so bad; that things would improve in time. "The Oregonian" even ran an article comparing Oregon to the other schools.

This misses the point entirely.

The circumstances surrounding the other schools' troubled periods are irrelevant. I am not an Oregon fan because I enjoy comparing my team to others; I am an Oregon fan because I care first and only about supporting my team. The fact that Florida has had a much worse track record than Oregon means nothing. Bringing it up only serves to illustrate what Oregon does not want to become. Like all fans, I want to believe my team is special. That my team is superior. Comparing yourself to the worst examples possible achieves nothing. I hold Oregon to a higher standard, which is what makes this period so frustrating to accept. As I have said, I believe Kelly has the team on the right track. But the recent activity out of the problem has been unacceptable. Period. There's no way around that.

Season Finale

National Overview

I apologize for not getting this out sooner. The distraction of the NFL playoffs, combined with all the comings and goings of coaches in the college game, necessitated that I wait before finishing my final post of the year. And what a year it was... as long as we're talking about the regular season.

Unfortunately, the 2009 college football season was doomed to the same fate as the NFL's Arizona-Green Bay Wild Card matchup: thrilling throughout regulation, only to end with a resounding thud. This year's bowls were among the worst, if not the worst, I can ever recall. Thank goodness for Idaho and Bowling Green - without the Humanitarian Bowl, fans may have lost hope completely. There were an appalling number of bad games in succession, and the only good contests were the ones involving mediocre teams (see Idaho-Bowling Green or Minnesota-Iowa State). Then, to top off this distasteful bowl sundae, fans were rewarded with a rotten maraschino in the national championship game after Colt McCoy was injured. Not good.

The clear winner of the whole affair was the Big 10, which responded to three years of mediocrity and bowl beatdowns by unleashing a bit of revenge on its opponents. Ohio State finally got off the schnied with their win over Oregon, Penn State shut up LSU, Iowa handled Georgia Tech and Wisconsin physically overpowered Miami (FL). It was exactly what the conference desperately needed - big wins by the league's best teams.

On the other hand, the Pac-10 was the obvious loser. After looking so powerful for much of the season, the West Coast's best went just 2-5, and only Stanford's loss was by any means permissible (due to the loss of their quarterback). Arizona's performance in particular was pitiful, almost certainly the worst of any team in postseason play. The conference will likely be damaged considerably by this exhibition when the polls come out next year.

The most disappointing thing, though - outside of the Texas-Alabama flop - was the Fiesta Bowl. Both Boise State and TCU had a chance (TCU especially) to make a case for a split national championship if they blew out their opponent. Instead, the teams proved that they were each other's best competition all year, and in doing so doomed themselves to second-tier status. This will only give critics of mid-majors more ammunition in arguing for their exclusion from BCS contention.

Final Rankings

I ranked the teams at season's end based on their full season of work, but placed emphasis on the second half of the year and their bowl performance. My final poll is as follows:

1) Alabama

Undisputed, perhaps, though we'll really never know if the Tide deserved to win it all because of how the championship game unfolded. Do they still beat the Longhorns if Colt McCoy plays? Unfortunately for Texas, that question will never be answered. However, Alabama did play well enough this season to be crowed number one.

2) Boise State

Although their dominant offense got exposed a little against TCU, the Broncos defense was clearly for real. After such an extended period of dominance, you have to give BSU their due. That's why I gave them the nod at second.

3) Florida

The Gators responded well to their SEC-title game humiliation by pounding overrated Cincy into the turf. Their only loss came to the top team in the country and they certainly earned this spot with the way they finished. However, that doesn't give them an argument over an undefeated Boise State team.

4) TCU

Despite their Fiesta Bowl meltdown, the Horned Frogs still had a very good season and probably could have beaten anyone in the country. After the victories they posted over BCS and non-BCS powers alike, I'm inclined to give TCU the benefit of the doubt in the rankings.

5) Texas

Horns fans will forever remember the missed opportunity that was the 2010 title game. Heck, if Garrett Gilbert could throw multiple picks and keep Texas in the game, what could McCoy have done? The second championship in four years just wasn't meant to be, though.

6) Ohio State

A very impressive showing against the Ducks, and suddenly Ohio State is worthy of national praise again. I'm not convinced at all that Terrelle Pryor is, or ever will be a great quarterback, but he can definitely draw confidence from his Rose Bowl performance. OSU will likely enter next season in the top three.

7) BYU

No, Oregon State didn't want to be there, but that's no excuse. The Cougars whipped the Beavers pretty badly in the Vegas Bowl and very well could have been playing Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl if not for the mid-season nightmare loss to TCU. They beat Oklahoma at (nearly) full strength and knocked off Utah too. That's a solid year.

8) Virginia Tech

Tech finally flexed a little against overmatched Tennessee, proving they were just shy of elite yet again. They lost a close game to Georgia Tech, but otherwise would have been in the Orange Bowl for the third straight year. The Hokies' success next season will likely depend on the maturation of Tyrod Taylor once more.

9) Oregon

The Ducks finished their season on a very disappointing note, but still won the Pac-10 for the first time in nearly a decade. They return all but three starters next season and should be primed for another run. The question is, will they get any respect after the way the Pac-10 played this postseason?

10) Penn State

I really don't see Penn State as an elite team and their victory over similarly overrated LSU doesn't legitimize them. It's true that I have the Nittany Lions ahead of the Iowa team that beat them early on; that's because PSU would win if the game was played again.

11) Cincinnati

Good, but clearly not good enough to join any championship discussion. I was expecting a blowout after the Brian Kelly desertion from an amped-up, embarrassed Florida team, but that Sugar Bowl was ridiculous. The Big East, after seemingly working its way back to respectability, will once again go into the offseason facing questions about its BCS status.

12) Iowa

Let's make one thing clear: the defense was for real. The offense, on the other hand, was just really ugly. Iowa won way too many lucky, close games to be considered a top-10 team, regardless of how well they played in the Orange Bowl. It doesn't help the Hawkeyes' cause that it is apparently a simple chore to shut down Georgia Tech in a bowl game.

13) Nebraska

If Iowa's defense was stout, then Nebraska's was an iron wall. The Cornhuskers absolutely annihilated Arizona in the Holiday Bowl, holding the high-flying Wildcats to 109 yards and zero points in a 33-point humiliation. Was the defense great because of the coaching or because of Ndamukong Suh, though? If it was the latter, expect Nebraska to come back down to earth next season.

14) Georgia Tech

Those great regular seasons the Yellow Jackets keep having aren't going to mean anything if they can't come up with some postseason success. The flexbone seems to have replaced the spread as the funky offense that can't be stopped in the regular season but is rendered ineffective when teams have time to learn how to defend it.

15) Wisconsin

After a mostly mediocre string of regular seasons, the Badgers came up big in their win over Miami (FL). Turns out the power game can still work in college football, huh? For Wisconsin to have continued success, though, they've got to finally find a quarterback that can throw a forward pass.

16) Pittsburgh

It would have been easy for the Panthers to fold up after their heartbreaking loss to Cincinnati at the end of the season. I'm impressed in how they battled to beat North Carolina, and the team is stacked for the foreseeable future. Look out for Pitt next season.

17) Utah

After falling into an early hole versus Cal, the Utes continued the Pac-10's misery against the Mountain West. The conference is on the verge of deserving an automatic BCS berth; with more performances like that one, it could potentially happen as soon as 2011. Utah's regular season was underwhelming after their perfect 2008, but they have the talent to rebound next year if they play like they did in the Poinsettia Bowl.

18) Miami (FL)

In 2009, there was good Miami and bad Miami, and bad Miami showed up for the Champs Sports Bowl. I have no doubt that a clicking 'Canes squad could have blown out Wisconsin, but they did very little to prove it against the Badgers. After watching this team fold mentally, I'm starting to wonder if they have the mettle to realize their potential next season.

19) USC

An ugly season concluded with a cathartic win over Boston College in the Emerald Bowl, but 2009 results are the least of the Trojans' worries now. New coach Lane Kiffin has planet-sized shoes to fill and nothing he has done in his short career to this point suggests that he's at all ready for job. Toss in the possibility of NCAA sanctions, and you've got a USC fan's worst nightmare.

20) Clemson

It wasn't exactly pretty, but Clemson did come out with a win over Kentucky to finish the season strong. Of course, the post-C.J. Spiller era won't be easy to transition to, but Clemson should be in better shape than it was under former coach Tommy Bowden.

21) Central Michigan

12-2 isn't bad at all. Although CMU would have been clobbered by some of the better top 25 teams, they definitely could have surprised some others. Their gutsy win at Michigan State demonstrated that the Chippewas could play with a lot of teams this year.

22) LSU

I wasn't impressed with the Tigers all year, and my lack of faith was rewarded when they petered out against Penn State. Although they had a lot of talent, it's just not easy to win when you have bad quarterback play, as LSU found out. Like Wisconsin, the Tigers need to find a good signal-caller in the future.

23) Texas Tech

The Mike Leach drama aside, Texas Tech did a great job of focusing and finishing strong in what could be their last good season for a long time. That's no exaggeration, as I'll discuss later. But nine wins isn't bad considering how much the team lost last year.

24) Navy

Another successful year for the Midshipmen, who continued their use of the flexbone to great effect. The bowl beatdown of Missouri was outstanding, and Ken Niumatalolo is the perfect coach for this team. I hope they can keep him there longer than they did Paul Johnson.

25) Oregon State

The Beavers were saved the humiliation of being the worst Pac-10 team of the bowl season thanks to Arizona, but there was nothing good about the shellacking they received courtesy of BYU. For a team that has conference championship aspirations, that was a step in the wrong direction.

Offseason News and Thoughts

Wow, did a lot of crazy stuff happen in the college football universe the last few weeks or what? With Signing Day just ahead it appears half of the teams in the country have gone insane, firing a coach, seeing a player arrested, or watching as their dynasty comes crumbling down around them (looking at you, USC).

Notre Dame and Brian Kelly got the ball rolling before the season even ended, as the Fighting Irish snagged the former Cincy coach with the classic lure of prestige and lots (and lots and lots and lots) of money. You can't blame Kelly for wanting to take the so-called "dream job," but you can blame him for walking out on his players before the biggest game in their program's history. And you thought Nick Saban was a weasel. Yeesh.

Speaking of Saban, no, he didn't jump schools again (but don't hold your breath, it's early), but he did manage to prove once and for all just how classless he is by running up the score on a toothless Texas team devastated by the loss of their quarterback. Saban is a brilliant recruiter and a very good coach, but the truth is that he'll always only be loved by his current employer, because he leaves a trail of misery whenever he switches jobs (which has proven to be often).

Then there was the bizarre Urban Meyer saga, when the Florida coach mysteriously announced that he was retiring for his health and then reversed course one day later after a spirited practice session apparently convinced him that football success is more important that success at staying alive. The game of college football is better with Meyer on the sideline, there's no doubt about that. But why would he want to put his life on the line for something as trivial (in the grand scheme of things) as football? Coach, it's okay to take a few years off for your health. You'll always be welcomed back to Florida with open arms. It's a lot tougher to run your body into the ground and then spend your golden years in a wheelchair. Meyer shouldn't have let the emotion of his players change his mind. He said himself that he needed to reevaluate his priorities; putting football before his health is a mistake.

The biggest coaching shakeup was at USC, though, where Pete Carroll turned tail and ran to the NFL (to Seattle, of all places). If the writing wasn't on the wall with the way the team performed this season, then it's certainly plastered on there in ten-foot neon letters now: the dynasty is over. Everyone knew the Trojans remarkable dominance would eventually come to an end, but no one thought it would come so abruptly and so meekly. USC fielded its least talented team in nearly a decade in 2009 and didn't offer much hope for the future. With the NCAA breathing down the administration's neck as well, it's clear that the glory days have ended.

Of course, USC then went out and made the worst hiring of the year in Lane Kiffin, a decision that still has people scratching their heads. Kiffin has proved nothing as a coach at any level, getting fired in less than two years with the Raiders and than piling up a 7-6 record at Tennessee this season. With his rants, verbal sparring matches with other coaches and outright lies about opposing programs, what makes him a good fit for any school? When Kiffin was fired by Al Davis, everyone assumed it was just another "Crazy Al" moment. Now Kiffin has done the unthinkable: actually making Davis look sane. It's unbelievable that USC would want him. Some people have suggested Kiffin is being hired as a fall guy to take the blame when the NCAA imposes sanctions on the program for the blatant rule violations of the past several years. I hope that's not the case because it's not a good way to run a program, but it wouldn't be any less than Kiffin deserves.

In the aftermath of the Kiffin desertion, Tennessee had to cope with the shock of searching for their second new coach of the last year. Although I thought pushing former coach Phil Fulmer out was a good idea at the time, I had to smile when I heard the school had offered Fulmer the job back. How does that taste, boosters? Fulmer, of course, embarrassed the school even further when he turned them down. Showing up the people who unceremoniously ran him out had to make him feel good. Of course, Tennessee then made the second-most boneheaded coaching decision of the year by panicking and hiring Louisiana Tech's Derek Dooley. Really? A 17-20 record in three seasons in the worst conference in America and that's the reward? What's the deal with fast-tracking mediocre coaches to stardom? Dooley is the son of the great Georgia coach Vince Dooley, so I guess UT was trying to get lucky with a guy who has football pedigree. But right now it just looks like a foolish hire.

Despite all these wild goings-on, though, the most shocking story in the sport revolved around now-former Texas Tech coach Mike Leach and his alleged mistreatment of a player. This nasty situation is on the verge of becoming even uglier now that Leach has been cleared to go ahead with his defamation lawsuit against the school. The university has accepted the story that Leach abused Red Raiders receiver Adam James - son of ESPN analyst and former SMU running back Craig James - by forcing him to spend time in an "electrical closet" and a "shed" when James exhibited a lazy attitude about practice after sustaining a concussion. However, Leach has argued rather convincingly that the areas he placed James in were nothing like the dungeons the player made them out to be.

Further complicating the situation was the story's initial coverage by ESPN, which was nothing short of grade-F journalism. The network reported James' side of the story constantly while never commenting on Leach's rebuttal. ESPN even went to far as to run a quote from another player attacking Leach, but failed to mention the large number of former and current players and assistants who stood by the coach's story. This kind of coverage could easily have influenced public opinion on Leach, which is of course what his lawsuit is all about. All in all, it was the kind of sordid tale that reflects very poorly on the sport and culture of college football.

I don't know all of the facts in the spat - no one does. But I do find it suspicious that James and his father lobbied Leach for more playing time and then asked to transfer to another school (which was refused) before launching this attack on the coach. From video released of the locations James was placed in, I can't say that I see what the problem is. Both are spacious and certainly not the "shed" and "closet" originally reported by the media. Add in the fact that so many people came to Leach's defense, and I feel very uncomfortable with the whole affair. Regardless of who is telling the truth here, though, it has to be said that Texas Tech's run as a player in the Big 12 is over. Leach put the Red Raiders on the map, and they'll be unable to compete with the powerhouses in their division now that such an important figurehead has left the program.

Final Reflections

While it was a disappointing bowl season, it was still another magical year for college football. The emergence of true parity for perhaps the very first time in the sport has electrified an already fascinating game. The traditional powerhouses have almost completely been eradicated and there's no doubt that the old status quo has been eliminated. Mid-majors are upsetting top-tier teams on a weekly basis, recruiting has never been more even and minority coaches are even making a little headway. It's a great time to be a college football fan. 2009 was an appropriately outstanding season, and I can't wait to see what 2010 has in store for us. I'll be back with periodic updates throughout the offseason, then I'll kick into gear once summer starts. Many thanks to all those who read my blog and/or talked to me about it. I hope to entertain and inform you again next year.