There seem to be a few inarguable truths in college
football right now. Alabama will pull in a top-five recruiting class. The Big
12 will continue to play no defense. The ACC will continue to spin its wheels.
And USC… well, USC will come up short of expectations. Outside of the Pete
Carroll era, it’s been that way a long time in L.A.
The Trojans’ fall from grace has been aided by
unfair NCAA sanctions, to be sure, but at a certain point the excuses start to
ring hollow. SC has far more talent in its two-deep than most schools, even in
power conferences. I covered the program’s curious excess of ego a few weeks
ago, but it’s clear with this week’s loss to Washington and subsequent firing
of Steve Sarkisian that the problems run deeper. USC should be able to line up,
run basic plays, and beat at least eight of its opponents each year without
issue. That isn’t happening.
Would it be better, or worse, to be a program like
Georgia? The Bulldogs’ hopes of accomplishing pretty much anything this season were
dealt a crushing blow against Alabama two weeks ago, but turning around and
losing to Tennessee? Unforgivable. UGA has similarly crumbled under some high
expectations in the past several years; the difference is that at least USC was
winning in the interim. Georgia seems to bounce aimlessly between mediocrity
and misery, and it’s not as if the Bulldogs are exactly suffering under the
NCAA’s cruel whip.
Of course, that’s not even mentioning another
schizophrenic traditional power in Oklahoma, which can’t seem to ever decide
whether it wants to enter rebuild mode or attempt yet another (eventually
disappointing) re-envisioning. The Sooners faceplanted again versus Texas, and
while that series has truly been a toss-up for the last decade, it’s pretty
inexcusable given the current state of Longhorn football.
2015 is setting up to be a very odd year indeed,
with a seemingly inevitable transfer of power out on the west coast, a
confusing muddle in the Midwest and whatever is happening in the South. Ohio
State and Michigan State continue to remain unbeaten, but unimpressively so;
Michigan might actually be the best team in the Big Ten. The Pac-12 has been
turned upside-down, with Stanford (which lost in Week One) and Utah the current
favorites to face off the title game. Alabama was done, then the Crimson Tide
were back; Ole Miss was the new SEC leader, then the Rebels were exposed;
Florida looks great, but no one trusts the Gators, Texas A&M is undefeated,
but might be a fraud.
Meanwhile, we continue to be gifted quality matchups
all across the board. This week, it’s another potential Thursday barnburner in
the Pac-12 as UCLA visits Stanford. Undefeated Toledo can move to 6-0 with a
win over Eastern Michigan, West Virginia is at Baylor in a possible shootout,
and ranked Iowa and Northwestern teams square off in Evanston. Ole Miss gets
another test in a rematch of last season’s hard-fought win over Memphis (this
time on the road), while Texas A&M gets a chance to prove its bona fides by
hosting Alabama.
Michigan State has the higher ranking, but Michigan
is favored in the Big House. The two highest-ranked teams meeting are Florida
and LSU (in Baton Rouge), and turmoil-ridden USC travels to rival Notre Dame.
Ohio State will get a sort-of challenge in Penn State, Arizona State is at
Utah, and Washington has its best chance in a decade to defeat rival Oregon in
Seattle.
Playoff Poll
Who knows anymore? Right now, the game is survival.
Undefeated teams get precedence, but a single loss isn’t a death blow for any
team with the way this season has played out.
First Tier
Ohio State
TCU
Michigan State
Utah
It remains extremely difficult to separate the teams
at the top of the pack. Ohio State looked decent last week, though not truly
top-caliber. TCU moves up in light of what Texas did to Oklahoma.
Second Tier
Alabama
Clemson
Baylor
I’m sticking with a
holding pattern in the second group for now. Alabama remains the most dangerous
one-loss squad and neither Baylor nor Clemson has any impressive victories.
Third Tier
Ole Miss
Florida
Florida State
Michigan
Florida gets the tentative
nod, but the loss of quarterback Will Grier could be fatal. Michigan has come
on very impressively and is rightly favored against Michigan State this
weekend.
Pac-12 Report
I more or less covered
my thoughts on Washington – USC in the opening. The situation with Steve
Sarkisian is unfortunate, but rather than focus on the Trojans’ problems, let’s
applaud UW for a gritty win. The Huskies never impressed during Chris Petersen’s
first year, and this performance indicates he has the team on track to
competing regularly for Pac-12 championships. The doomsday scenario the other
Northwest schools envisioned upon Petersen’s hiring may be coming true.
Speaking of doomsday,
how about Oregon? The Ducks blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead and lost
in double overtime to a Washington State team that really deserved to beat
them by more. UO is now 3-3, firmly out of the playoff picture, and most likely out of
the conference race. It’s tough to imagine this team challenging for the North, outside
of an undefeated run to close out the year.
Arizona clobbered
Oregon State, making quick work of the Beavers' hopes for an upset. Despite a
couple of rough losses, ‘Zona might be very good; we’ll have to wait and see.
ASU disposed of Colorado in similar fashion and improved to 2-1 in conference
play with the result. The Sun Devils might be rounding back into form just at
the right time.
Finally, there was the
oddity that was Cal – Utah. There’s something off about these teams – Utah’s win
over Oregon certainly holds no weight now, and it’s not as if Cal has faced a
murderer’s row – that doesn’t make me want to believe. It’s obviously easier to
believe in the Utes after they won, but the thoroughly unconvincing victory
definitely leaves us wanting. Is this really a top-five team?
This week, we get
started with Thursday night’s UCLA – Stanford showdown. I get to cheat on this
game because I’m late posting. Although I would have picked Stanford anyway, given how I’ve learned to never trust the Bruins, I didn’t see last night’s
thrashing coming. Once again, UCLA melted in the spotlight, giving us a second
L.A. school to shake our heads and roll our eyes at this season. The Cardinal
currently look like the favorites not only in the North, but possibly the entire
conference.
Oregon State is at
Washington State for a game that the Beavers essentially must have to consider
this season any kind of a success. OSU is in real danger of going winless in
conference play, and facing a team on a emotional high after a double-overtime
road win might be the best chance the Beavs get. WSU is the better squad by far
and at home, but the Cougars have not handled success well in the Mike Leach era.
Would anyone be shocked
if USC came out and won at Notre Dame following the dismissal of Sarkisian? The
Trojans have drastically underachieved so far this year and were considered to
be the stronger team in the preseason. The last time SC fired a head coach
midseason, it won its next game. Granted, Notre Dame is pretty good. But so are
the Trojans. At 1-2 in conference play, USC could really use this boost.
Arizona should keep
Colorado winless in the Pac-12, as QB Anu Solomon seems healthy and ready to
return the Wildcats to contender status. I like this ‘Zona squad. They got
rolled by Stanford two weeks ago, but the blowout to UCLA was a fluke, exacerbated
by Solomon’s injury and multiple turnovers. The Buffaloes have improved… but
still not enough.
Utah gets another interesting
home test from ASU, which has looked great the past two weeks after sleepwalking
through September. I won’t predict a loss for the Utes, but they’d better be
careful. A performance like the one we saw against Cal won’t get it done this
week. The Sun Devils hammered UCLA, smoked Colorado and finally look like the
team everyone expected. It’s a matchup of the top two teams in the South and it
should be a good one.
Finally, there’s Oregon
at Washington, in a game with more far-reaching implications than the country might think. Oregon’s roster is more talented, but that hasn’t meant very much
for the Ducks in the past several weeks. The basic question is QB play: can UO
find someone, anyone, who can lead the offense and make basic throws
consistently? Be it Vernon Adams returning from injury, Taylor Alie providing a
spark, or even (gulp) Jeff Lockie finding some heretofore-unseen ability, Oregon
needs a guy who can take a modicum of pressure off the running game.
If the Ducks can’t do
that, the Huskies can and will fully commit to bottling up Royce Freeman and
Taj Griffin without consequence. The UW offense is pretty tepid, but the weak Oregon
secondary should provide just the antidote for the Huskies’ passing woes. This
game won’t be high-scoring, and Oregon should still have the ability to
continue the streak, but with the way the team has looked of late, it’s not a
pick I can make with confidence.
The bigger issue in the
balance is whether this is another tipping point game for Pac-12. Washington’s
upset of USC last week seemed to be a little foreshadowing moment, and Oregon’s collapse against
WSU strengthened the idea. If the Ducks lose this game, they’ll be under .500
after September for the first time since 2004 and probably fail to make bowl
game (not coincidentally, 2004 was the last time UO missed the postseason).
With a win, Washington could move into a tie for second in the division with a
showdown against Stanford looming, conceivably putting UW on a path to an
out-of-nowhere appearance in the Pac-12 title game… in a rebuilding year. The stakes
are exceptionally high in this contest, and it’s not a stretch to say the
future of the Pac-12 could be altered by the outcome.
Heisman Watch
It’s time to start
talking about college football’s highest honor. Not unlike the Playoff race,
there are a lot of decent candidates, but few exceptional ones. Except, of
course, for LSU’s Leonard Fournette, who would win in a landslide if voting
were held today. Here’s who I’m considering.
Leonard Fournette, RB,
LSU
Fournette is the
runaway favorite for a reason. He has most of the “wow” plays this season, he’s
already nearly eclipsed his rushing total from 2014 and is on track to break
Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record if LSU plays in the SEC
championship game.
Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU
Boykin wouldn’t be here
if not for his stellar performance in Big 12 play, when he’s twice rescued the
Horned Frogs from near-certain defeat. He won’t put up numbers like Marcus Mariota
did last year – it’s possible no one ever will – but he might do enough to beat
out Fournette based on team performance.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB,
Ohio State
The Buckeye’s QB
situation has been a tire fire for most of the season, so credit Elliott for
keeping the offense afloat. He’s a tremendously talented back, but might have
the bad luck to be playing in the same season as an all-timer (much like Boykin
did last year). And for as bad as OSU’s QB’s have been at times, they’re still
light-years ahead of whoever LSU is throwing on the field.
Random Thoughts and
Observations
2007 is considered the
template for the truly bizarre season. In that year, fifth-ranked Michigan fell
at home to then-FCS member Appalachian State on opening day, which acted as a portent for the madness to come. In all, 13 unranked teams upset top-five
opponents during the regular season, along with the second-ranked team going
down a total of seven times AND both the No. 1 and No. 2 teams losing on the
same day – twice.
That doesn’t include
LSU losing twice as the top-ranked team, then still getting to play in (and
win) the National Championship; the incredible Missouri – Kansas showdown
between top-five (!) rivals; Hawai’i’s unbeaten run, Dennis Dixon’s injury that
cost Oregon a Heisman and a shot at the BCS title; Pat White’s injury that did
the same for West Virginia; Navy beating Notre Dame for the first time in 46
years, and a grand total of 59 ranked teams losing to lower-ranked or unranked
opponents.
It was the
most insane and unpredictable season in recent memory, and probably the
strangest season of all time. 2015 can’t live up to that standard, but we’ve
seen craziness this year the likes of which we haven’t seen since that wild
2007 campaign. The Pac-12 alone is a mess, and the SEC isn’t far behind. With
those two leagues – still the two best in the country – in disarray, it seems likely
that the second half of this season will play out in ways no one expects.
2015 Stanzi Awards
It was another quiet
week for the Stanzis, but Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph announced his
intention to take home the trophy with a brilliant three-pick performance
versus West Virginia. Heisman hopeful Trevone Boykin also got on the board,
while former Florida great Jeff Driskel made a surprise appearance.
Week Six Awards
Trevone Boykin, TCU
Opponent: Kansas State
Performance: Two INT,
won by seven
Travis Wilson, Utah
Opponent: Cal
Performance: Two INT,
won by six
Jake Coker, Alabama
Opponent: Arkansas
Performance: Two INT,
won by 13
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma
State
Opponent: West Virginia
Performance: Three INT,
won by seven (OT)
Jeff Driskel, Louisiana
Tech
Opponent: UTSA
Performance: Two INT,
won by three
2015 Standings
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3
Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2
Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2
Travis Wilson, Utah: 1
Hayden Moore, Cincinnati: 1
Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1
Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt: 1
Josh Rosen, UCLA: 1
Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1
Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1
Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 1
Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech: 1
P.J. Walker, Temple: 1
Matt Johns, Virginia: 1
Matt Linehan, Idaho: 1
Chris Laviano, Rutgers: 1
Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 1
Baker Mayfield,
Oklahoma: 1
Chase Litton, Marshall:
1
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 1
Cody Clements, South Alabama: 1
Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest: 1
Jake Coker, Alabama: 1
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 1
Max Wittek: Hawai’i: 1
Maty Mauk: Missouri: 1
Michael Birdsong, Marshall: 1
Tanner Mangum, BYU: 1
Thomas Sirk, Duke: 1
Philip Ely, Toledo: 1
We’ve reached peak Stanzi season, when conference
play is in full swing and QB’s just can’t help themselves from throwing killer
pick after killer pick. What a time to be alive.
No comments:
Post a Comment