Thursday, October 8, 2015

Dawg Days

Oh, Georgia. My sweet summer child. Somehow, we all knew it would end like this. Well, perhaps not quite like this. A 38-10 annihilation at home probably wasn’t on the minds of even the most pessimistic of Bulldogs fans. And so begins yet another round of, “If not now, when?” with UGA.

Mark Richt’s tenure has endured this turmoil seemingly in perpetuity. By all reasonable standards, Richt is a very good coach, with a strong record in what has been the nation’s toughest conference over the past decade. Amidst the savagery of the SEC, he’s won two league titles, taken another team to the brink of one and had at least one squad undone by injuries.

Yet there’s undeniably an air of unfulfilled promise in Athens. During the past 20 seasons, Tennessee and Florida have won national championships out of Georgia’s own division, while LSU, Alabama and Auburn have combined for another six. Georgia has been as good or better than three of those five programs during that time, but never able to win the big one. It felt as if 2015 might finally be the time… now, it seems UGA will need to win the East to ensure Richt keeps his job.

Week Five came through with a load of quality action, starting with Cincinnati’s nice win over Miami (FL) on Thursday evening. TCU finally looked like a contender in a napalming of Texas. Ohio State and Michigan State continued to struggle against inferior competition. New darling Ole Miss learned what it means to be the hunted, getting roundly exposed by a surprising Florida squad. Notre Dame and UCLA got more of the same, falling to Clemson and Arizona State, respectively.

In a development worth keeping an eye on, Navy dominated rival Air Force to improve to 4-0. The Midshipmen, solid as usual while playing their first-ever season in a conference, might have what it takes to run the table in the AAC. If they get by Notre Dame this week – absolutely not out of the realm of possibility – they could be looking at an undefeated year.

Poor Tennessee was all but eliminated from the SEC race with a third consecutive heartbreaking loss, this time at the hands of Arkansas. The Volunteers should have made the East a three-team chase, but are probably already stuck playing spoiler after what easily could have been a 5-0 start.

Northwestern came through in a big show-me moment, blanking Minnesota 27-0. At 5-0, the Wildcats look as if they’re ready to fulfill the hype they got a couple seasons too early. Meanwhile, surprising Iowa has also moved to 5-0 after a big road win at Wisconsin, setting up the Hawkeyes and Wildcats for a very interesting division clash the next two months.

With conference play fully underway, Week Six looks to deliver even more excitement, along with a few potential knockout blows to would-be contenders. USC needs to demonstrate its lofty preseason ranking wasn’t all hype when it hosts Washington on Thursday night. Newly ranked Iowa figures to get a challenge from quietly 4-1 Illinois, while Oklahoma and Texas meet in the often-unpredictable Red River Shootout in Dallas.

Baylor travels to Kansas in a contest that might see the Bears put up the most points anyone will score this season. That game could get really ugly. Penn State and Indiana, both 4-1, will square off in Happy Valley. Clemson has a scary hangover game with Georgia Tech’s option, while Georgia meets Tennessee in a desperation match for the SEC East rivals.

In the midday slate, there’s a big one in the Big Ten: Northwestern at Michigan, with the 5-0 Wildcats taking on the 4-1 Wolverines. I wouldn’t be shocked to see UM pull that game out. Florida is at Missouri in a potential letdown game for the Gators and in the nightcap, surprisingly undefeated Cal and Utah teams get set for a showdown in Salt Lake City. This week is going to be fun.

Playoff Poll

It’s gotten very difficult to separate the teams at the top of the list, as presumptive favorites Michigan State, Ohio State and TCU have struggled tremendously to this point. Alabama, Ole Miss and USC have already lost. Most schools have yet to play an opponent of their own caliber.

First Tier

Ohio State
Michigan State
TCU
Utah

The Spartans and Horned Frogs return, proving that sometimes it is just survival that matters. Utah maintains its position for now, facing a big test against Cal’s passing attack this week.

Second Tier

Alabama
Clemson
Baylor

The Bears and Tigers move up thanks to losses above them. Neither has been that impressive, but at least Clemson has played a couple teams with a pulse.

Third Tier

Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Florida State

The Sooners have gone under the radar but should be 6-0 after this week. Ole Miss took one on the chin, but still has the all-important ‘Bama win to its credit. I don’t trust Florida yet.

Pac-12 Report

Well, well. Welcome back, Arizona State. The Sun Devils crushed UCLA in Pasadena, showing that perhaps all that offseason hype had some substance behind it. In the process, ASU saved its season and might have given the South a whole new look. I was never sold on UCLA, but the Sun Devils were desperate.

Stanford is the clear North favorite after dominating Arizona, though Cal could still play a major role. The Golden Bears moved to 5-0 after escaping Washington State, though the Cougars could have easily won the game. Cal will have improve its pass defense to truly contend. Oregon beat Colorado in the final game of the weekend after a weather delay; the Ducks have some serious issues at quarterback to fix but still have the talent to potentially win the division.

This week figures to be more interesting, starting with the Thursday night Washington – USC tilt. The Trojans haven’t lived up to expectations yet and need to beat the Huskies impressively, which I think they will.

Oregon State is at Arizona for an interesting contest. The Wildcats are a better team, but are coming off a rough two weeks and have to deal with QB Anu Solomon’s health issues. The Beavers just got a bye. ‘Zona should still win, but OSU could make a game of it.

Oregon is favored by 17 at home against Washington State, which seems far too high given the Ducks’ awful secondary and Wazzu’s propensity to air it out. UO is a better team, but hasn’t looked like it to this point, which makes this a scary matchup.

Colorado and ASU are both 3-2, though the Buffaloes do appear to still be a year away from competing in the South. ASU was a huge disappointment until last week’s UCLA upset, so perhaps the Sun Devils have gotten things back on track. Or perhaps it was a fluke and CU will triumph in Tempe.

Finally, there’s Cal at Utah, a matchup that ought to tell us a lot about both teams. I tend to think the Bears are in a little over their heads here; the hot start could have easily included losses to WSU and Texas, and the defense has looked as porous as usual. However, it’s also quite possible the Utes got a perfect storm against Oregon – they certainly didn’t look dominant over the first few games – and are more of a top-15 squad than a top-5 outfit. Utah should win this game, but we’ll have to see how the defense fares.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I don’t want to hear how Clemson “turned a corner” versus Notre Dame. But for a failed two-point conversion, this would have been the Clemsoniest Clemsoning of them all. The Tigers were at home, up three scores in the second half, against a team with a freshman QB and a host of other injuries. The Fighting Irish had four turnovers and a massive yardage edge. How exactly was this an impressive win? Clemson is good enough to win the ACC and maybe even go undefeated, but there’s no chance this team is title-worthy.

2015 Stanzi Awards

It was a quiet week for the prestigious Stanzi, with a mere four QB’s taking home weekly awards. Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph moved into the multiple winner category, while two more SEC passers announced their intentions to be crowned the worst QB in the land.

Week Five Awards

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
Opponent: Kansas State
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by two

Philip Ely, Toledo
Opponent: Ball State
Performance: Two INT, won by 14

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt
Opponent: Middle Tennessee
Performance: Two INT, won by four

Patrick Towles, Kentucky
Opponent: Eastern Kentucky
Performance: Two INT, won by seven

2015 Standings

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2
Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 2
Hayden Moore, Cincinnati: 1
Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt: 1
Josh Rosen, UCLA: 1
Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1
Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1
Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 1
P.J. Walker, Temple: 1
Matt Johns, Virginia: 1
Matt Linehan, Idaho: 1
Chris Laviano, Rutgers: 1
Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 1
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 1
Chase Litton, Marshall: 1
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 1
Cody Clements, South Alabama: 1
Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest: 1
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 1
Max Wittek: Hawai’i: 1
Maty Mauk: Missouri: 1
Michael Birdsong, Marshall: 1
Tanner Mangum, BYU: 1
Thomas Sirk, Duke: 1
Philip Ely, Toledo: 1


It’s been a lovely, wild season so far. Who knows what the next week will bring? Can one of the Big Ten’s titans be toppled? What about the Big 12’s? It’s going to be a fascinating October.

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