National
Overview
This is it. The conference championships are
still a week away, but there are several key rivalry games around Thanksgiving
that might decide things a bit early. Or not. The fun started on Thursday in Week
13, when Kansas State added to the intrigue of this wild season by holding off
West Virginia and North Carolina annihilated Duke, clinching the ACC Coastal
for Georgia Tech.
Minnesota introduced a small measure of uncertainty
to the Big Ten West by coming back to beat Nebraska, setting up a
winner-takes-all match with Wisconsin next week in Madison for the right to
take on Ohio State. The Buckeyes briefly looked as if they might lose to woeful
Indiana, but survived and advanced yet again. Florida State did much the same,
squeaking by Boston College on a late field goal.
Arizona moved a step closer toward real
respectability by crushing Utah on the road, while Ole Miss dropped all
pretense of any in a 30-0 loss at Arkansas. The only other ranked team to lose
was USC, which came out curiously flat in the second half and got embarrassed
by UCLA. More on this in the Pac-12 section.
Unfortunately, most of the top 10 was on some kind
of break, so we were denied any real drama. That will change this week. Even
the non-ranked matchups hold intrigue. Thanksgiving Day has LSU – Texas A&M
and TCU – Texas (a massive upset alert for the Horned Frogs). Central Florida –
South Florida is Friday, along with Stanford – UCLA, the Duel in the Desert
(Arizona State – Arizona), Colorado State – Air Force and the Commonwealth Cup
(Virginia – Virginia Tech).
Saturday? The Battle for the Palmetto State (South
Carolina – Clemson). Clean, Old Fashioned Hate (Georgia Tech – Georgia).
Kentucky – Louisville. Michigan – Ohio State. Purdue – Indiana. NC State – UNC.
The Rumble in the Rockies (Utah – Colorado). Notre Dame – USC. The Egg Bowl
(Mississippi State – Ole Miss). Florida – Florida State. The Battle for the
Land Grant Trophy (Michigan State – Penn State). The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s
Axe (Minnesota – Wisconsin). The Sunflower Showdown (Kansas – Kansas State).
Tennessee – Vanderbilt. The Iron Bowl (Auburn – Alabama). The Civil War (Oregon
– Oregon State). The Apple Cup (Washington – Washington State). The Battle for
Nevada (Nevada – UNLV). This is the reason college football is better than the
NFL.
Playoff
Poll
Nothing happened to change the rankings from last
week. If anything, Florida State’s newest near-loss provided even more proof
the Seminoles are right where they should be.
College Football Playoff
1) Oregon vs. 4) Baylor
2) Alabama vs. 3) Florida State
Baylor doesn’t play Kansas State until next week,
but I’m still giving the Bears the benefit of the doubt as a one-loss team. The
top three are unchanged. Once again, Oregon has wins over No. 8, 10 and 25,
with a loss to No. 11; Alabama has a win over No. 4 with a loss to No. 19, FSU
has wins over No. 21 and 22. How exactly is Oregon’s resume not the strongest? Going
by the committee’s own rankings, the Ducks should be first.
Second Tier
TCU
Mississippi State
Ohio State
I swapped the Bulldogs and Buckeyes based on the latter’s
struggles with a terrible Indiana team. Really, OSU? TCU’s fourth-quarter
defense against Baylor might cost the Horned Frogs a title shot, although that
game with Texas this week might do them in anyway.
Third Tier
UCLA
Georgia
This is where things get iffy. Even if both schools
win out it would take a lot of chaos ahead of them to justify a top-four spot.
We’ll see what happens.
Pac-12
Report
The first full conference slate in three weeks
didn’t disappoint. In the early game, Washington State raced out to a 21-7
second-quarter lead before Arizona State brought the full fury of the Fork down
on the Cougars, outscoring WSU 31-0 in the second half until a touchdown with
just 24 seconds left. The Sun Devils can still repeat as South champions, but
will need UCLA to lose this week.
In contrast, Arizona wasted no time putting Utah’s
faint South aspirations to bed, blasting the Utes 42-10 in Salt Lake City. The
Wildcats also still have a shot at the Pac-12 Championship, but like their
rivals will need UCLA to lose to get the opportunity. Poor Utah has improved
by leaps and bounds since entering the league in 2011, but still looks doomed
to suffer another 5-4 conference record.
Stanford showed some offensive ability against Cal,
clinching a bowl bid as Pac-12 higher-ups exhaled in relief. It would not have
been a good look had the defending conference champs failed to qualify for the
postseason. The Bears dropped to 5-6 but can still make a bowl with a win this
week. They deserve one, hopefully they’ll get it.
Oregon predictably routed Colorado in the Ducks’ home
finale in a game that was probably more notable for being quarterback Marcus
Mariota’s last appearance at Autzen. The Buffaloes have lost some of the
promising fight they showed in the first half of the season, but that’s
somewhat to be expected after a year full of woulda-shoulda-coulda games. CU is
better than a two-win team, but couldn’t close against several conference foes.
Both of the night matchups proved to be slight duds.
USC and UCLA battled to a draw midway through the second quarter and the contest
appeared headed for a classic finish. Instead, the Bruins stepped up, the
Trojans wilted and UCLA ran away with a three-score victory. If the Bruins can
hold serve against Stanford, they’ll win their third division title in four
years.
Oregon State was within striking distance for three
quarters at Washington, but once again sputtered offensively with the game on
the line. Credit the Huskies for taking control and reaching bowl eligibility
before the Apple Cup, but the Beavers have been disappointing all season. OSU’s
win over Arizona State now means nothing, unless the Civil War turns out a
massive upset.
The Black Friday games are delightful and will
decide the South winner. Arizona State and Arizona will meet in Tucson with
identical 9-2 records with the division title on the line, pending the result
of UCLA – Stanford. This is going to be a good one. ASU has been the better
team much of the season, but the stumble in Corvallis gives me a lot more
reason to pause. Arizona certainly didn’t look great against USC or UCLA, but
the Wildcats have been a more consistent bet of late. The Sun Devils’ losses
are actually worse – the blowout to UCLA was terrible, while their showing at OSU
was awful – which makes me want to lean toward UA at home. However, the health
of QB Anu Solomon is a problem. The freshman left the Utah game in the second
quarter and didn’t return. With him, I think ‘Zona wins. Without, I’ll take
ASU.
Stanford – UCLA should be a simple coronation for
the Bruins as they move toward a rematch with Oregon. I can’t shake the memory
of just how dominant Stanford was last year, though. This isn’t the same
Cardinal team, but is UCLA really that good? The Bruins seem to have turned
things around since the whipping at the hands of the Ducks, but it’s also
possible the schedule just got a lot easier. In the end, Stanford’s utter
ineptitude offensively makes this a no-brainer, but the fact that I even
questioned the outcome is a bad sign for UCLA. I need to see something this
game from the Bruins.
Utah should have little trouble beating Colorado to
finish 8-4, which would be a nice accomplishment in the loaded South this
season. It’s hard not to feel like it could have been even more, which has to
sting a little, but a chance at a nine-win campaign shouldn’t be sneered at in
Salt Lake City. As I said before, CU has improved so much, but the long year of
near-upsets that just never materialized has to have had a demoralizing effect.
Notre Dame is at USC for a matchup I would have said
the Trojans should win… until this week. The no-show in the second half at UCLA
was troubling. Both teams are 7-4 and dealing with the disappointment of
lowered expectations after starting the season strong. Will one side sleepwalk
through this game? It wouldn’t shock me. For the Pac-12’s sake it’d be nice to
see SC be SC again, but we’ll have to wait and find out. I’m worried about the
mental makeup of this squad.
Cal can get back to the postseason with a win over
BYU. At the beginning of the year that would have been outlandish, but the
Cougars haven’t been the same team since losing QB Taysom Hill. Overall BYU is
still quite talented and absolutely has the ability to come into Berkeley and
win. I’m going to go with sentiment, though, and predict the Bears will come
through to get their embattled program into a bowl again.
As with UCLA – Stanford, the Civil War should be
little more than a walkthrough for the Ducks. However, that should have been
the case last year, when the Beavers really had UO dead to rights in Autzen
before giving up a last-second TD. The Ducks aren’t any better as a team this
season and OSU always plays better in Corvallis. However, the Beavs are clearly
a worse team in 2014 and have been wildly inconsistent week-to-week. It’s tough
enough to trust them to make this a game, let alone pick the upset.
The same is true for Washington State, but at least
the Cougars have the excuse of injuries. Crazy things have been known to happen
on the Palouse and it wouldn’t be a total shock to see the Air Raid drop
500-plus through the air on the Huskies. Unfortunately, it’s also all too easy
to imagine UW controlling the clock and forcing multiple turnovers in an ugly
blowout. Washington seemed to get right with the OSU win last week and I expect
they’ll continue that kind of play in the Apple Cup.
Heisman
Watch
There’s no sense in messing around.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Mariota is the national leader in several passing
categories this season and currently holds the highest TD-to-interception ratio
of any player in NCAA history. He’s the best QB in the country and helms the
offense of a team that appears headed for the inaugural playoff. Sounds like a
Heisman winner to me.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
In many seasons Gordon’s 2,000-plus rushing yards
would be enough to make him the leader. In this Big Ten, with this competition,
he might have to settle for second place. It’s also possible the preponderance
of Wisconsin running backs putting up huge yards could cause voter fatigue.
Random
Thoughts and Observations
Poor Melvin Gordon. After sitting out the fourth
quarter last week with the new FBS rushing record in hand, the Wisconsin back
had to watch as Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine broke the mark just six days later.
The true freshman bowling ball (Perine is listed at a generous 5-11 and 243
pounds) went for 427 on his second play of the fourth, leaving Gordon with
“only” a potential FBS season rushing record to strive for. Oh, well.
The two-man Heisman race has a very interesting
subplot going on as we enter the final weeks of the season. Melvin Gordon has a
real chance to break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record if he plays in
the Big Ten Championship. That mark has always been viewed as untouchable, so
it seems Gordon should be a shoo-in for the Heisman if he gets there. But Marcus
Mariota of Oregon has been so impressive, as well as the national leader most
of the season. Should Gordon pass him on the strength of his 408-yard
performance against Nebraska?
The knock on Mariota is that Oregon’s system makes
all QB’s look good. That is unquestionably true. From Dennis Dixon to Jeremiah
Masoli to Darron Thomas, the up-tempo spread has worked wonders for the Ducks’
signal callers. Yet Mariota is unquestionably the most talented player Oregon
has had at the position; and more importantly, what is Wisconsin’s offense, if
not a RB-friendly system?
As this Rolling Stone article points out, Badgers
backs have been putting up huge numbers for a long time, thanks to a tradition
of developing massive, homegrown offensive linemen that pave the way for easy
yards. Just as few UO passers have made much of an impact at the next level,
few Wisconsin runners have accomplished much in the NFL. Look at the list of
Badgers RB’s in the past 15 years. Ron Dayne. Michael Bennett. Anthony Davis.
P.J. Hill. John Clay. Montee Ball. James White. I watched every one of those
guys. They all put up great college numbers and did little in the pros.
The fairest way to look at it seems to be to
acknowledge that both teams run offenses that maximize their players’
abilities; they simply choose to emphasize different positions. With that in
mind, Mariota’s efficiency and Gordon’s productivity come from a similar place.
Both players have had excellent seasons and will likely be in New York for the
ceremony, but only one can win. Because QB is an inherently more valuable
position than RB, the edge still goes to Mariota.
Stanzi
Watch
I’m not really certain how it’s possible, but Old
Dominion gave us two Stanzi winners this week in a three-point win over
Louisiana Tech. Taylor Heinicke threw two picks along with his two TD’s, while
apparent backup Jordan Glover contributed two picks in two attempts. Unfortunately
there’s no detailed box score for the game, but as it stands Heinicke and
Glover each earn a Stanzi. There was also a delightful Double Stanzi in the FIU
– North Texas game, where the Panthers Alex McGough tossed three picks to the
two of the Mean Green’s Andrew McNulty. UNT won 17-14. And look who’s back!
Toledo’s Logan Woodside, who moved into a tie for the lead with his fourth
Stanzi of the year. Here are this week’s winners and the finalists.
Logan Woodside, Toledo
Opponent: Bowling Green
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
J.T. Barrett, Ohio State
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, won by 15
Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion
Opponent: Louisiana Tech
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Jordan Glover, Old Dominion
Opponent: Louisiana Tech
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan
Opponent: Central Michigan
Performance: Two INT, won by 12
Andrew McNulty, North Texas
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
Opponent: Iowa State
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three
Jameis Winston, Florida State: 4
Logan Woodside, Toledo: 4
Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3
Justin Holman, UCF: 2
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 2
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2
Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 2
Anu Solomon, Arizona: 2
Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2
Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 2
Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2
Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2
Cooper Rush, CMU: 2
C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2
J.T. Barrett, Ohio State: 2
I never would have imagined we’d have 16 finalists.
What a season it’s been! From the mountains, to the valleys, this game was made
for you and me.
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