Darkness Approaches

National Overview

Could this season be any more 2007? The last year of true chaos saw a top-five team lose to an unranked opponent 13 times and the No. 2 team in the nation lose seven times as the BCS crowned its first (and only) multiple-loss champion in 11-2 LSU. It was an insane, wonderful ride (as long as you weren’t an Oregon or Ohio State fan). 2014 is shaping up to be the closest imitation of that wacky season we’ve had since, and I’m excited to see what things will look like when the dust settles.

The biggest reason for the 2007 parallels is parity. There was no truly great team in 2007; even LSU fans would probably say they revere the 2003 BCC championship team or the 2011 squad that lost to Alabama in the Rematch of Death more than the flawed ’07 group. We’re at the point now where we can safely say the same about 2014 – although I’ve been saying it for months – that there simply isn’t a truly elite, dominant team. The standings in the SEC West and Pac-12 South reflect that.

Alabama took down Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa, because MSU was clearly not that good and the Crimson Tide are much better. The Ole Miss loss still looks bad, but ‘Bama is slowly rounding into top form once again. That’s bad news for the rest of the country. The good news is that this Tide squad, even at its best, can’t compare to the juggernaut teams of 2009, 2011 and 2012. There’s still a possibility ‘Bama could get knocked off by another good team.

The shocker of the week was Arizona State losing in wintry conditions in Corvallis. Strangely, even though I predicted ASU would win handily, I had a last-second change of heart about the game that I dismissed as foolish. Ah, to have the benefit of hindsight! It makes sense that the Sun Devils, a warm-weather squad that had played above its ability for a month, would have a comedown game in a contest played on the road, at night, in the cold and swirling wind. Oh well. Oregon is now the Obi-Wan Kenobi of the Pac-12.

Ohio State survived in even worse conditions, winning in a minor snowstorm at Minnesota in a game that really shouldn’t have been as close as it was. The Buckeyes will move up thanks to ASU’s stumble, but are probably still on the outside looking in to the playoff until one more contender falls. OSU has certainly improved since that awful Virginia Tech game, though.

TCU very nearly provided a more terrible collapse than ASU, squeaking by Kansas thanks to a punt return touchdown. Even the close win over the Jayhawks, one of the worst teams in the nation, will probably be enough to hurt the Horned Frogs’ playoff chances. Fortunately for TCU, Baylor was idle, but if the Bears can beat Kansas State it’s only a matter of time before they’ll pass the Horned Frogs.

Wisconsin quite literally trampled Nebraska, as running back Melvin Gordon set a new NCAA Division I record with 408 yards on the ground. Gordon is now impossible to ignore as a Heisman candidate and Wisconsin looks to be the favorite in the Big Ten West. At the very least the Badgers could prove a decent opponent for Ohio State in the championship game. Lord knows the conference needs one.

Georgia also officially eliminated Auburn with a 34-7 trouncing that really wasn’t even as bad as it could have been. The Bulldogs finally got Todd Gurley back, only to see the star running back tear an ACL in the second half. UGA would need a significant amount of help to get into the playoff and losing Gurley is the wrong way to start. Auburn, on the other hand, can only hope to ruin Alabama’s season.

It’s rivalry week! Or at least, rivalry week part one. Since the college football season has been extended so far into November, the original year-ending “rivalry week” has been split across the final two weeks of the season, and in a few cases, the final three. It’s not the worst thing to happen, as it allows for more of these wonderful ancient hatreds to be televised in all their glory. This week, we get North Carolina at Duke (Thursday), Stanford – Cal, USC – UCLA and Syracuse at Pittsburgh. Let us not speak of the SEC, where five teams will host FCS schools in a disgusting and brazen attempt to game the system.

Playoff Poll

This is the toughest decision yet. Alabama, Oregon and Florida State are the top three. But in what order? Does FSU’s unblemished record hold the most weight? The Crimson Tide’s superior conference? Oregon’s superior wins? Here’s how I see this:

If Florida State was third last week behind Oregon, did the Seminoles do enough against Miami (FL) while UO was idle to jump the Ducks? The answer is an emphatic “no.” If anything, FSU’s umpteenth great escape showed why voters (and the committee) have soured on the Seminoles. But should Oregon be rewarded for not playing? That’s the kind of faulty logic that tainted the polls for decades. Alabama notched a great win against a very good, if clearly inferior, Mississippi State team. Is that one good win enough to boost the Tide three spots?

College Football Playoff

1) Oregon vs. 4) Baylor

2) Alabama vs. 3) Florida State

Using this week’s committee rankings to compare schedules is the most logical way to break things down. The ranking a team has when it loses has no relevance; many, many teams are vastly overrated and get exposed. This is how the resumes of the top three compare:

Oregon has wins over No. 11 Michigan State (home), No. 9 UCLA (away) and No. 17 Utah (away), none by fewer than 12 points, with a loss to No. 15 Arizona (home)

Alabama has a single win over a top 25 team: No. 4 Mississippi State (home), with a loss to No. 8 Ole Miss (away)

Florida State has wins over No. 22 Clemson (home) and No. 24 Louisville (away) and no losses (though it’s worth noting neither the Tigers or Cardinals are ranked in either traditional poll)

Which overall body of work is the strongest? It’s rather easy to tell. Baylor slips into my top four because of TCU’s struggles with Kansas (ugh) and the expectation that the Bears will win the Big 12.

Second Tier

TCU

Ohio State

Mississippi State

TCU is in trouble if it can’t impress people more in the next two games. Ohio State shouldn’t really have a shot because the Big Ten is terrible, but there’s definitely some building sentiment for the Buckeyes. Mississippi State certainly isn’t out of it, but the Cinderella magic seemed to dry up against a much better Alabama squad.

Third Tier

Nobody.

There isn’t anyone else remotely deserving of being included in the playoff conversation right now. A couple teams could make a case with a strong closing kick, but I doubt anyone other than the teams listed about will be taking part.

Pac-12 Report

Thank goodness for Arizona and Utah. The Pac-12 took a giant hit when Arizona State flopped at Oregon State. It would have been catastrophic had three ranked teams gone down. Instead, thanks to clutch late-game play from the Wildcats and Utes, five conference members sit in the AP top 25 this week. I already covered the ASU – OSU game earlier, but suffice it to say that was the other shoe dropping for the Sun Devils. ASU had miraculously covered all its deficiencies for three-quarters of the season and finally had that killer misstep. The win could save the Beavers’ season, provided they can get one more at Washington this week to become bowl-eligible.

Cal at USC Thursday night was an odd one. The Trojans dominated the first half, but never really seemed to be knocking out the Bears. Sure, there were a whole lot of passing yards, but everyone throws it on Cal. SC never got the ground game going, and it showed in the final margin. Cal isn’t terrible enough anymore to be beaten by three-quarters of a good game. It was an expected loss, but the signs still seem to point to the Bears getting that all-important sixth win in one of the last two games. More on this in a moment.

Washington, Washington. So close. The Huskies are 6-5 with the two games left and are possibly the most average team I’ve ever seen. The offense has been below-average, the defense above-average, and the team overall has no players anywhere that scare anybody. Another seven-win season, anyone? Yeesh. At least Sark is gone. Arizona, on the other hand, continues to improve under RichRod and is now 8-2 (albeit with two tough games left). The South is still up for grabs, people.

Utah – Stanford was a matchup to tell your grandchildren about – if you want them to have nightmares. The game featured no scoring for the final 36 minutes and less than 550 yards of combined offense despite going into double-overtime and having a single turnover. Dear lord. Thankfully for the Pac-12, Utah survived, setting up a nice elimination showdown with Arizona this week. As for the Cardinal, well, it’s not looking too good.

Speaking of Stanford… I’ve been wondering if/when Cal could get that sixth win. Could it come against Stanford? I would have dismissed the notion as absurd as recently as two weeks ago, but now I’m less sure. The Cardinal have been awful offensively and the once-stout defense now looks more like above-average. It’s not as if Cal can’t move the ball on pretty much anybody. What’s more, both teams sit at 5-5, the game will determine which finishes higher in the North AND it’s in Berkeley. There’s a lot pointing toward a Bears win. I would think (hope?) Stanford’s D would ultimately save the day, but I’m certainly not sure about it.

Another thing I’m not sure about: the quality (or lack thereof) of Oregon State and Washington. The Beavers are in Seattle this week for a titanic struggle between teams with identical 2-5 conference records. It’s another late game and the weather in the Pacific Northwest promises to be appropriately cold and wet. Do the Beavs have another win in them? They’ll probably need it heading into the Civil War. The Huskies can also claim a bowl spot with a win in either of their last two games, but UW’s finale is the considerably easier Apple Cup. As bad as OSU has been at times this season, I think they get the win this week thanks to a much-needed confidence boost at the expense of ASU.

The Sun Devils host Washington State in a contest that should be no big deal, but then again, that’s what everyone thought last week. The circumstances are different here, though. ASU is much better at home and won’t have to battle the elements and a late start like in Corvallis. I fully expect the Sun Devils to run the Cougars’ defense ragged and get more than enough stops for a comfortable win.

Colorado – Oregon is the biggest mismatch of the day, pitting possibly the conference’s worst team against its standard-bearer. We know the drill here. UO runs up a ridiculous score, pulls its starters in the third quarter and coasts from there. At least, that’s what should happen. The Pac-12 has gotten a little crazy this year. Anything less than total dominance would be a surprise, though.

A pair of big South matchups headline the weekend. First up is Arizona at Utah, a game both teams must have to stay alive in the division race. The Wildcats have the better offense, the Utes the superior D. I like what Utah has done this year a lot and Rice-Eccles is a tough place to play… but I think ‘Zona is just the better team. It could go either way. I’ll take UA in a relatively close one because of the ‘Cats’ ability to consistently generate offense.

The delightful primetime matchup is USC at UCLA in a rivalry that’s finally started to heat up again after a decade-plus of mediocrity. As with the Arizona – Utah tilt, the loser is out of the South race. I’ve been down on the Bruins all year, but they seem to be rounding into form late in the season. SC has looked fantastic at times and awful at others. What to make of this game? UCLA is at home, but neither the Rose Bowl nor the Coliseum really provide that much of an advantage. I’m taking the team with the better quarterback… USC’s Cody Kessler.

Heisman Watch

Let’s be real. Dak Prescott is out. Ameer Abdullah, out. This is a two-man race.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Mariota is still the front-runner, leading the nation in several passing categories. The award is his to lose.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

Gordon made this interesting by setting a new FBS record for single-game rushing yards, but he still needs to make up ground after going under the radar most of the season.

Stanzi Watch

Two more players joined the finalists, but it was an otherwise uneventful week. There are only a few games remaining. Can anyone catch Jameis Winston? Here are this week’s winners and the short list.

Blake Frohnapfel, Massachussetts

Opponent: Ball State

Performance: Two INT, won by 14

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan

Opponent: Miami (OH)

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

Trevor Simian, Northwestern

Opponent: Notre Dame

Performance: Two INT, won in OT

Cody Thomas, Oklahoma

Opponent: Texas Tech

Performance: Three INT, won by 12

Anu Solomon, Arizona

Opponent: Washington

Performance: Two INT, won by one

Grant Hedrick, Boise State

Opponent: San Diego State

Performance: Two INT, won by nine

Sean Mannion, Oregon State

Opponent: Arizona State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by eight

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 4

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 3

Justin Holman, UCF: 2

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 2

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 2

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 2

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2

Cooper Rush, CMU: 2

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2

The rivalries are upon us! Let the games begin!