We finally got the upsets everyone knew were coming. They
just didn’t come from where we expected. LSU versus Florida? No problem. Oregon
at Washington? No chance. Instead, a week ahead of a big showdown with UCLA, Stanford stumbled at Utah, while Georgia finally succumbed to its injury woes
against Missouri. The rest of the top teams managed to win, though some in very
dicey situations. Clemson was nearly caught looking ahead to Florida State by
Boston College, while Texas A&M needed a whole lot of Ole Miss incompetence
to escape Oxford.
While we were robbed of an eventual undefeated Oregon –
Stanford pairing late in the year, we still get a classic dual this week in FSU
at Clemson, which should be absolutely fantastic. The last two games between
the Atlantic Division rivals have been barnburners and this one figures to be
no exception. Playmakers abound on both sides, but the biggest matchup to watch
is the one between the two quarterbacks. Jameis Winston and Tajh Boyd are
dual-threat studs, future high draft picks and current Heisman short-listers.
Death Valley will be rocking with the 8:00 p.m. (local) kick-off. This could be
the game of the year.
Oregon notched the most impressive win of the weekend, on
the road in a raucous Husky Stadium. Against the best squad Washington has
fielded since the 2000 Rose Bowl year, UO never trailed and controlled the game
nearly from start to finish. The Ducks had an answer for everything the Huskies
did on both sides of the ball, racking up a 631-376 yardage edge despite playing
without star RB De’Anthony Thomas. UW has clearly improved, but they’re still
not in Oregon’s league.
The nation’s top team, Alabama, had another easy week with
Kentucky. The rest of the SEC was more interesting, as LSU outclassed Florida,
Texas A&M outlasted Ole Miss and Mizzou out-injured Georgia. Poor UGA. The
Bulldogs are very good but have simply had no luck at all in 2013 and it caught
up to them this week. You knew eventually the team would break down, but it was
surprising to see it happen at home against the Tigers. Missouri is decent but
hardly great and it’s hard to shake the feeling that with just a few of its
crippled warriors back Georgia would have won the game.
Of course, Mizzou can hardly celebrate themselves after
losing QB James Franklin for the season. In the ultimate twist of cruel fate,
the Tigers finally got the validating SEC win they’d been seeking but saw their
leader go down in the same game. I’ve moved the team into my rankings, but
without Franklin it’s hard to imagine they’ll keep winning (next two opponents:
Florida and South Carolina). The SEC East is wide open and it still might come
down to whether Georgia can hold off the injury bug for a few more key
contests.
The other big upset of the weekend was Utah’s win over Stanford.
The Utes had been knocking on the door for a couple of weeks and were finally
rewarded Saturday. However, even though Stanford is the more talented team,
it’s hard to gauge how big of an upset this really is. The Cardinal looked
pedestrian in several games this season and should have lost last week to
Washington. In a Pac-12 North that features potentially five bowl teams, ‘Furd
is in a tough spot after dropping this game (which, it’s worth noting, they
still could have won despite being outplayed). Utah may prove to be a player in
the South Division yet.
Among the other noteworthy games, USC was impressive in
holding off Arizona’s late rally to win their first game post-Kiffin. As many
commentators have noted, the Trojans just looked to be having FUN again as they
demonstrated an ability to move the ball and play some solid defense
(until the fourth quarter). This still isn’t a great team, but it’s one that,
like Texas, may prove to be more tricky at the end of the season. Speaking of
the Longhorns…
Texas is 3-0 in the Big 12. All those predictions of a Big
12 Championship could actually turn out to be completely accurate, which is
crazy considering where this team was a few games ago. I didn’t include the Red
River Rivalry in my earlier recapping because the Big 12 is less relevant on
the national scene right now, but UT blowing out Oklahoma was absolutely
stunning. I wasn’t under the impression that OU was some kind of powerhouse,
but I certainly thought they’d have enough to handle a defense-less squad like
the Longhorns. Instead, Texas did what every opponent of Oklahoma’s SHOULD do
this year: force the Sooners to the air, where Blake Bell is barely competent. Nicely
done, Mack. That’ll stave off the firing talk for another, oh, three games.
The rankings took another shakeup this week as Clemson’s
second poor showing in a win this year cost them. The two most dominant teams
have been Oregon and Florida State, but neither could quite unseat the two-time
champs. Louisville’s middling win over Rutgers significantly hurt the
Cardinals, while Wisconsin moved back into the rankings (to stay, if you look
at the schedule) and the Baylor/Mizzou combo finally made it on the board. For
now.
Top 25
1) Alabama
It’s telling that despite a 6-0 start that includes wins
over Virginia Tech and Texas A&M (now the best two wins of any of the top
teams) Alabama is still being questioned. It’s easy to get caught up in the
flash of Oregon’s big win at Washington and Florida State’s annihilation of
Maryland, but ‘Bama has still only allowed 11 points a game and won five of six
games by at least 25. True, the schedule has been lacking since the trip to
College Station and the offense has been a little less than stellar. This team
still gets the benefit of the doubt until someone unseats them.
2) Oregon
The Ducks’ scorched the previously stingy Husky D and,
outside of a 194-yard third quarter, completely shut down the new and improved
UW offense. With Stanford’s loss, it appears the Pac-12 is truly Oregon’s to
lose, but beware: in both of the past two seasons UO stumbled down the stretch
– at home, no less – when it seemed a perfect conference record was in hand.
The league has continued to rise to the Ducks’ level, so even with the
potential Heisman winner leading the way this will not be an easy road. The
second half of the schedule is a lot tougher.
3) FSU
Clemson’s little stumble against Boston College was
worrisome (although considering how close the Eagles played FSU, perhaps BC is
just good), which is why I’m currently predicting a Seminoles win in Clemson
this week. Additionally, outside of the tremendous win over Georgia, Florida
State has been the better team this year. My respect for Jameis Winston cannot
be overstated – he should be no lower than second in any Heisman poll – and the
‘Noles are hitting opponents hard with an impressively balanced attack. They
also got a week off to prepare for the Tigers.
4) Clemson
Clemson beat Georgia at full strength, a feat that may not
get the respect it deserves if the Bulldogs’ injuries cause them to slide out
of the SEC race. However, it’s also true that since opening week this team has
not always looked great. Saturday’s close shave marked the second time Clemson
nearly fell to a vastly inferior team. Even if the Tigers were looking ahead, it
raises concerns about their focus. You don’t see that kind of slip-up from
Oregon or Alabama. The heavyweight showdown this week will answer a lot of
questions, though if Clemson wins they should be back at number one.
5) LSU
I had LSU eighth last week and after another quality
win I’m prepared to move them in front of an undefeated Ohio State team that
hasn’t played anyone as good as the best two (maybe three) teams on the
Tigers' schedule. At the very least, dominating Florida is more impressive than
close wins over Northwestern and Wisconsin. The offense continues to churn out
yards and points, which makes up for the fact that the defense hasn’t been up
to its usual standard. With just two threatening games left on the schedule
(‘Bama and A&M), LSU is still in position to snag a spot in the SEC
Championship.
6) Ohio State
After taking out the only two difficult teams on their
schedule, the Buckeyes sat back this week to assess their handiwork. It wasn’t
pretty, as Wisconsin destroyed the Northwestern team OSU had just barely
beaten. The good news was the Buckeyes already had a win over Wisconsin; the
bad news was Michigan losing to Penn State. That loss might prove to be Ohio
State’s undoing, given the perception of how weak the Big Ten is this season. 12-0
is very possible, but it might come at the expense of one or even zero ranked
teams. As talented as this squad is I see it as a cut below the top tier.
7) South Carolina
The Gamecocks obliterated Arkansas, righting a whole lot of
tepid play the past month and setting up a fun showdown with Missouri in
Columbia in late October (provided they can get past Tennessee this weekend).
This is a quality team, but you can see the margin of error is smaller for them
than it is for, say, Alabama or LSU. Of course, it’s also important to remember
how the schedule gods paid Carolina back this season, which, coupled with
Georgia’s injuries, could still lead the Gamecocks back to the top of the East.
If they knock off Mizzou, the last four games are at home. I like those odds.
8) Texas A&M
We know what the offense can do. It’s the defense that,
well, look at what I said last week. I didn’t expect Ole Miss to be the team
that came out of nowhere to trip up the Aggies, yet it probably should have
been, save for some atrocious clock management by the Rebels. Fortunately for
A&M Johnny Manziel’s knee seems fine and they now get four straight home
games, three against bad teams, to build on that record. The problem is that
even weak foes can make a game of it against the sieve that is aTm’s D. At some
point the offense is going to wear out from carrying so much of the load.
9) Louisville
With a chance to make a statement against Rutgers on the
national stage the Cardinals fell flat Thursday. It’s nice to get four gift
interceptions and hold a conference rival to ten points, but three of the
Scarlet Knights’ previous four FBS opponents had scored the same or better
against them. In fact, at 27 points per game allowed, the 24-10 loss actually lowered Rutger’s defensive average. UCF
next week is the only team remaining for Louisville worth anything at all, so
they’d better be prepared to do something special. Right now it would take two
losses by every other BCS team to get the Cardinals to the title game.
10) Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes took the week off, though odds are they won’t
need the rest to beat foundering North Carolina. Collisions with Florida State
and Virginia Tech are still three weeks out, so right now all this team has to
do is stay the course to ensure a run at the division crown. I will say this:
Florida’s proved to be no great shakes, so the ‘Canes might be outclassed by
the top teams in the improved ACC. For now they maintain their spot, but the
schedule hasn’t really been that difficult (just one road game to this point).
November will tell us how good Miami really is.
11) UCLA
Even in the 27-point win over Cal I found plenty upon which
UCLA could improve. We know by now the Bears are awful; everyone scores on
them. Comparatively speaking, though, the Bruins’ offense wasn’t great on
Saturday. UCLA settled for way too many field goals and finished with fewer
points than any other FBS team has against Cal. Now, this was offset by the
fact that Utah, who nearly beat UCLA last week, knocked off Stanford. That buys the Bruins a break for the time being. However, with a road trip to
Palo Alto this week, they won’t be able to celebrate for long.
12) Stanford
Well, you can’t say the writing wasn’t on the wall.
Stanford, not an overwhelmingly dominant team at the best of times, ran out of
luck against Utah. The Cardinal played a very un-Stanford-like game, getting
beat at the line and looking a step slow. Make no mistake, the Utes did a nice
job, but Stanford is the better team and didn’t play like it. They’d better
figure some things out – UCLA comes to town this week, with a better offense
than that of Utah. I expect a much more focused effort from the defense, though
the fate of the very average offense is anyone’s guess.
13) Georgia
It’s just one of those seasons for Georgia, whose title hopes
have been dashed in a tidal wave of snapped bones and shredded ligaments. The
defense wasn’t going to be great even if things broke right this year and isn’t
capable of stepping up to relieve the pressure on the undermanned offense. We
can probably count on a few more shootouts this season. Though it’s entirely possible
Aaron Murray can pull out most of them, the only one that matters is the early
November date with Florida. Win, and UGA will likely still make an
improbable run to the SEC Championship.
14) Texas Tech
I’m more than a little nervous after TTU gave up 35 to 1-4
Iowa State, but the Red Raiders survived to move to 3-0 in the wild Big 12 and
still have West Virginia on the sked to iron things out before going to
Oklahoma. Of course, the Sooners might not be that good, so maybe WVU (in
Morgantown) is the bigger threat here. Or maybe it’s Oklahoma State, or Baylor,
or possibly even Texas, lurking at the very end. This league has gotten too
crazy to predict, so for now, I’ll stick with what I know: Tech is tied for the
Big 12 lead a third of the way through the conference season.
15) Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh never seriously threatened, so the 10-point win
is a little better than it looks. Really, that’s an accurate descriptor for
this whole team, which has some offensive… issues… but plays good enough
defense to usually make up for that. Sometimes ya gotta win ugly. With five
straight victories by 10 points or fewer, no one can attest to that more than VaTech.
Against a high-caliber opponent I’m pretty sure these guys would be toast, but
guess what? There aren’t any on the schedule. Miami (FL) is the only ranked foe
left and I’m not even sure the ‘Canes are that good.
16) Nebraska
The Cornhuskers did what they had to – beat down inferior
teams like Illinois and Purdue. The upcoming opposition gets more difficult,
but with an embarrassing eight home games it’s hard to see how Nebraska doesn’t
squeeze at least eight or nine wins out of this schedule. I tend to think the
Blackshirts’ defensive issues have only been hidden by the bad teams they’ve
played the past couple of weeks, but in the Big Ten this team honestly isn’t
likely to see that many offensive juggernauts. With Taylor Martinez on the
mend, Nebraska is still very much in the mix for the Legends title.
17) Oklahoma State
OSU got a week off and now faces reeling TCU and Iowa State
before a huge showdown in Lubbock with Texas Tech. However, if the Cowboys can
notch those first two wins they’ll be in prime position to take down the Red
Raiders, as TTU has to play at Oklahoma the week prior. I’ve been unable to get
a good read on Okie State despite watching them several times; they look like
BCS material one game, then average the next. In the 2013 Big 12, that might be
enough. All they have to do is be good on the right days. That includes versus
TCU this week.
18) Washington
If you believe, as I do, that Oregon is one of the best
teams in the country (and possibly the best, period) Washington can’t be
faulted for losing to the Ducks at home, even by multiple scores. I didn’t see
anything in the game that shocked me. Oregon is just better. That doesn’t mean
UW is bad, or even average. The back half of the schedule is easier, save
two games. One is at Arizona State next week (the other is at UCLA). The
Huskies are the better team and should win, but strange things have been known
to happen in the desert. As long as this team is looking forward, not back,
they should be okay.
19) Florida
The fact that Florida is still holding opponents to 13
points a game with an offense averaging less than 200 yards rushing AND passing
is phenomenal. That’s what makes them worthy of a spot in the top 25. It’s
obvious by now what the Gators are: a team that fights like mad to stay in
games and has to because its offense is horrendous. That isn’t the same thing
as being a bad team overall, though, and it definitely doesn’t mean UF is out
of the SEC race. Mizzou is up next and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see
Florida win on the road and open this division up again.
20) Wisconsin
Yow. I called a Wisconsin win, but I can’t take credit for
that one – I was expecting a two-score game, tops. Instead, Wisky flat-out
embarrassed Northwestern, rolling up 527 yards (and allowing a mere 241) while
holding the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game. The Wildcats have been
unceremoniously booted from the Big Ten race. The Badgers, meanwhile, are still
in it, but not really, given that they would need TWO Ohio State losses to make
the conference championship game. However, with an incredibly winnable final
six games, 10-2 is a distinct possibility.
21) Baylor
I’ll say this for Baylor: they got a win against a
non-garbage opponent. Sadly, “non-garbage” is about is kind as I can get for
Kansas State, who currently sits at 2-4 and 0-3 in the Big 12. The Bears saw
their dominant offense held to less than 450 yards by a defense not ranked in
the top 50 and needed two fourth-quarter scores to pull out the win. Iowa State
and Kansas are bad enough that I’m still predicting a 7-0 start, but when the
schedule gets real Baylor is going to have some problems. Despite what you may
think, some Big 12 teams CAN play D.
22) Oklahoma
Don’t be fooled by this ranking: OU was spanked by a
seemingly inferior Texas team from start to finish and deserves to fall out of
the top 25 based on Saturday’s performance. That is, if you take for granted
that UT is bad, which I don’t really think is the case. I think it’s much more
likely the Longhorns simply had a couple of terrible games earlier in the year
and were shamed into playing up to their talent level. Oklahoma will still be a
factor in the Big 12 race and has earned a ranking based on their previous body
of work. Unfortunately, like Texas before them, they had a complete meltdown this game.
23) Missouri
You can only play the team in front of you that day, so
credit Missouri for capitalizing on Georgia’s… weaknesses and winning in
Athens. Still, it’s hard to be overly excited about the win considering UGA
significantly outgained the Tigers and had four turnovers to Mizzou’s zero. I’d
be skeptical of the win even if James Franklin hadn’t been injured, and by the
way, he’s out for the year (again). This is a top-15 team with a backup QB? Voters
moving this team up eleven spots is one of the all-time overreactions in poll
history. Florida is an extremely tough out this week.
24) Fresno State
Fresno will beat UNLV this week without incident, don’t let
the records tell you otherwise. As I’ve said before, though, much of this
team’s fate will come down to the defense. It’s terrible, even when playing bad
teams. The Bulldogs will not be able to finish in the top 16 (required for BCS
eligibility) if they can’t convince both the voters and the computers they have
a reasonably good defense. This week would be a great time to start holding
teams to fewer points and looking big-picture. The difference between 55-40 and
42-10 is huge; if Fresno can dial down the scoring a little to help out their
own D it would be very helpful.
25) Oregon State
No, Sean Mannion is not one of the best QB’s in the nation
and no, Brandin Cooks is not the best receiver in the nation. But what they are
is good. Good enough to beat the middling competition OSU has faced to this
point and certainly good enough to tear poor Cal a new one this week. Can you
imagine this passing attack against the Bears’ last-ranked defense? This might
not be suitable for children. Of course, the schedule gets MUCH harder after
this, but give the Beavers credit for doing what they should have done – mostly
– against inferior opposition. Seriously, though, can Storm Woods get some
help?
Pac-12 Report
Not a bad week in the Pac-12 entertainment-wise, although it
was not particularly successful in the way of advancing the conference’s best
interests. Oregon beating Washington convincingly was nice and kept the Ducks
in the title chase, but you know what’s better than one team capable of winning
it all? That’s right, two! Stanford gave us a dud at Rice-Eccles, though, so
we’re realistically down to UO or bust for the Pac-12. That’s got to be a tough one
for some fans to swallow.
Long-term the Utah win was more harmful than helpful to the
conference at large. The same cannot be said of USC’s win over Arizona Thursday
night. That was both a short-term victory to get the team believing again and a
long-term win for the Trojans and the Pac-12. It’s no secret that a good SC
team makes for a stronger league and that’s exactly what the Trojans were,
jumping out to a 38-17 lead before conceding two scores to make the game closer
than it needed to be. The Trojans played fast, loose and aggressive – hardly hallmarks
of the Lane Kiffin era – looking like the clearly superior team. We still have
a lot of football to be played. I’d bet USC will play some kind of role in
determining the South champion yet.
All three of the night games ended up as blowouts, though
Oregon State didn’t pull away until late. Arizona State predictably squashed
Colorado early. There isn’t much to talk about there. UCLA was never really in
trouble against Cal, but the Bruins failed to pull away when they should have.
They’ll need a better effort against Stanford. OSU and WSU played a tight,
back-and-forth game for three quarters that abruptly ended on four consecutive
Cougars turnovers, all of which the Beavers cashed in. That swing made the score
look a little more lopsided than the game was, but I don’t think there’s any
doubt the Beavs were the better team.
Now, about Stanford… I kept jumping back to the Cardinal –
Utes matchup expecting a Stanford run. Some kind of long drive that crushed
Utah’s spirits, or a big turnover to swing momentum, perhaps. I thought they had
it on the opening possession of the second half when Travis Wilson made his
only mistake, a pick in the red zone. Surely Stanford would tie the game (21-14
Utah at that point) and take control, right? It never happened. The reality is
this: after the Cardinal scored on their opening possession and ran Utah’s
kickoff back following the tying score, they only put points on the board one
more time. Even that was a likely incompletion out of bounds in the fourth
quarter with the Utes up 13. The offense simply wasn’t there for Stanford.
That’s nothing new if you’ve watched this team at all over
the past two seasons. Stanford generally grinds things out and gets enough good
play from its defense to win games. When they lose the turnover battle (as they
did against Utah, with two fumbles) they have a hard time winning. Where would
the Cardinal be without WR Ty Montgomery this year? He not only has two kickoff
return TD’s in two weeks, he’s the offense’s only decent playmaker, with more
than twice as many catches as the next closest player. Kevin Hogan has proved
to be more game manager than star – which is fine if the defense and ground
game are rolling. But he, and the rest of the Stanford team, will need to find
last season’s spark to challenge for a Pac-12 title.
That’s not to take anything away from Utah, who played a
marvelous game, particularly on defense The Utes held Stanford to just 143
rushing yards, denying the Cardinal the ammunition for their devastating
play-action fakes. The semi-no-huddle Utah employs also gave Stanford problems,
as defenders looked a step slower than usual. It’s obvious that frustrating
close losses to OSU and UCLA to start the conference season pushed this team
over the top in an emotional (and unusual) third consecutive home Pac-12
contest. The next two weeks the Utes visit South rivals Arizona and USC, so
we’ll see if they can continue to be a factor in the division race.
Finally, there’s that Oregon – Washington game (side note:
don’t call this the “Border War.” That’s Kansas – Missouri. Not every rivalry
needs a nickname). First, the positives for UW. The Huskies are better this
season than any other in the Sarkisian era. Past Washington teams would have
folded against this Oregon squad. Keith Price is the best QB they’ve had in
Seattle since Marques Tuiasosopo and, more importantly, the defense is no
longer a liability. In fact, it’s actually pretty good. Offensively, the
decision to copycat the spread trend seems to have been a great one; UW’s
playmakers, while not on the level of Oregon’s, are better than the Ducks’
defense made them look.
However, what Saturday’s result showed was more or less what
I expected from both teams. Despite clear improvement on offense, the Huskies
still don’t have the horses to keep up with Oregon’s relentless pace. Against
an exceptional defense, Washington was hemmed in by UO's superior secondary and
forced to settle for short throws and a steady diet of runs. RB Bishop Sankey
proved his mettle with a thoroughbred-esque effort, but there’s only a handful
of teams Oregon can’t eventually force to the air and UW isn’t one of them.
Defensively, the Dawgs had neither the front-line talent nor the depth to stop
UO from eventually pulling away. Like many good units before them, they held
tight for a half, then got gassed.
For Washington, it means an end to any realistic shot at the
Pac-12 championship. For Oregon, it means the run is just beginning. The Ducks
proved to have a better offense and defense than most analysts suggested
heading into the game, though UW did have success with the power run. That’s
the formula that’s worked against this team in the past and while it didn’t
result in a win this week, that doesn’t mean it can’t in the future. UO also
had some tackling issues that will need to be cleaned up. On the positive side
(other than the win, obviously), Oregon did a great job through the air on both
offense and defense. The Ducks had two receivers reach 100 yards and held the
Huskies to 182 yards passing a week after looking shaky against Colorado. With
a massive yardage edge and timely big plays, Oregon gave a fine performance
overall.
All 12 conference teams are in action again this week,
although this time there are a pair of non-league games. First, there’s
Colorado, who scheduled Charleston Southern as a replacement for the
flooded-out Fresno State contest. When I saw this announcement I just had to
shake my head. Why, why, why would CU pick THIS team? The Buccaneers are 7-0
and ranked 24th in the FCS poll. They could very possibly come into
Boulder and beat the Buffaloes. For a squad as desperate as Colorado is for a
win, this is potentially disastrous. I hope they don’t regret the decision to
play this game.
The other non-conference game is USC at Notre Dame in the
annual matchup of two disappointing teams. It’s very hard to know what to make
of this game or the Trojans and Fighting Irish in general. We know Notre Dame isn’t that
good – they lost to Michigan and Oklahoma and nearly went down to Purdue. Then
again, the Irish did manage to beat both Michigan State’s great defense and
Arizona State’s great offense. Notre Dame this year seems to be an amorphous
jack-of-all-trades, capable of playing with most opponents but also always
close to defeat. And which USC team will show up? The one embarrassed by WSU’s
defense and ASU’s offense, or the one looking like a squad on the rebound after
a coaching change? I could believe either side winning close or in a blowout.
The three games I feel reasonably comfortable picking is the
trio of night matchups: Utah at Arizona, Washington State at Oregon and Oregon
State at Cal. Arizona’s not horrible, but after watching Utah finally break
through this week it’s hard to go against the Utes, even in Tucson. Zona has
one of the nation’s best rushing attacks but is inept passing and won’t be able
to simply run the ball down Utah’s throat all game. Although statistically the
Wildcats have the superior defense the numbers are deceptive, as the Utes’ have
come against one of the nation’s toughest schedules to date. Arizona has lost
both games it played against moderately competent teams. The visitors should
take this one.
Wazzu shouldn’t have lost to Oregon State by four scores,
but that’s the risk you run when you play a style as aggressive as the one Mike Leach
favors. Expect more of the same this week against the Ducks, who boast a
stronger secondary (and overall defense) than the Beavers and get the benefit
of playing at home. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cougars’
defense hang in there for a quarter or two; this unit is much improved and wasn’t
to blame for the avalanche of poor field position the WSU offense put them in
last week. Oregon will win the game handily, but Wazzu will put some points up.
Oregon State has to play a red-eye game for the second straight
week on the road. Fortunately for the Beavs, it’s against Cal, so there’s not
too much to be worried about. I have sneaking suspicion Sean Mannion’s
school-record performance against Wazzu is going to last for all of one week,
as this game matches the country’s number one passing attack with its worst
scoring defense. Something’s gotta give. It’s not OSU. With their own strong
passing game the Bears could conceivably keep this close into the fourth
quarter like WSU did, but you have to remember that Cal’s defense is so much
worse than the Cougars’. Oregon State should have this in hand fairly quickly.
The two afternoon games are the ones you need to keep an eye
on. UCLA versus Stanford should make for great viewing, but don’t sleep on
Washington at ASU. Arizona State is the only unranked team of the four and with
a win, the Sun Devils would assuredly leap back into the top 25. So first, to
Palo Alto. Stanford is rightfully bemoaning the missed opportunities they had
that would have stolen a second straight conference win. However, with the way
this team plays, such a slip-up was inevitable. By margin of close games,
Stanford was the luckiest team in the country last year. Eventually that luck
was going to run out. Back at home against a UCLA team I’m pretty sure
is very overrated, though, I’m going with the Cardinal.
UCLA is tricky because of what the Bruins’ final scores have
looked like. When you’re routinely putting up 35+ and holding opponents to less
than 20 everyone thinks you’re world-beaters. But have you actually seen this team play?
The scoring has dipped since entering conference play and the offensive line,
while adequate to this point, is going to get devoured by a quality front seven
(hello, Stanford). The skill players are also far less imposing than last year,
when the likes of Joe Fauria and Johnathan Franklin roamed the sideline. The
catalyst has been the excellent Brett Hundley, but as good as he is he won’t
win games by himself in this league. While the defensive front has been stout,
the secondary is highly questionable. Any QB worth his salt – remember, this is
the Pac-12 – is going to have a field day with them.
Washington at ASU is more difficult to pick. The Huskies and
Sun Devils are both significantly better at home and Tempe isn’t an easy
place to play under any circumstances. With a 3:00 p.m. local kickoff and the
forecast in the 80’s, the job gets even harder. I don’t think there’s any doubt
UW is the better team. After all, the Huskies just went toe-to-toe with the two
best teams in the conference and didn’t get embarrassed. However, as I’ve said
before, the better team doesn’t always win, something ASU knows all about. The
Sun Devils should have beaten Notre Dame and probably should have lost to
Wisconsin this year. So how will this play out?
It’s fair to say U-Dub will be focused and angry after
losing to the Cardinal and Ducks. What’s more, this is essentially the season
for this team – lose three straight in league play and you can say goodbye to a
quality bowl. With Oregon State and UCLA still on the schedule, Washington
simply cannot afford to lose this game. ASU’s position is much more enviable:
at 2-1, with Stanford already out of the way and no Oregon on the menu, the Sun
Devils can lose this game and still control their destiny in the South. In
fact, by winning out ASU would almost be assured of a spot in the Pac-12
Championship, unless you think UCLA is going to beat both Stanford AND Oregon
on the road. Safe to say, there’s a lot more riding on this for the Dawgs.
In the end, I think UW is simply the better team. ASU scores
more, but the offenses are basically a push and Washington’s defense is far
better. After facing Oregon’s spread last week, ASU should feel like the JV. It’s
not a lock by any means, but the Huskies are due to finally break through with
a big road win. They’ve had home success under Sarkisian, now it’s time for it
to extend out of Seattle. This team has a toughness we’ve not seen out of Washington
squads in recent years and I’ll take UW in this game.
Heisman Watch
We’re still only halfway through the season, so it feels
wrong to be tossing names out who may fizzle by year’s end. Still… here are the
best candidates thus far for college football’s top honor. Keep an eye on the
ACC showdown. It may end up deciding a league, a national title AND a Heisman.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Mariota delivered in the first test for Oregon in 2013. His
numbers are superb, but he makes out even better on the eye test.
Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson
Don’t pin Clemson’s anemic effort against Boston College on
him. Boyd went 30-44 for 344 yards and didn’t throw a pick.
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Winston has completed 90 of his first 123 collegiate pass
attempts (73 percent) with 17 TD’s and just two INT’s.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Given that we’ve now seen a wonderful seven weeks of
football, it seemed fitting to go back and evaluate how accurate my big predictions
or smaller feelings about the season have been. Some of these are still a work
in progress, but I’ll look for as many as possible. I’ll start with my worst
predictions and work up to the best ones.
My biggest miscalculation was assuming that FSU would be in
(slight) rebuild mode with the loss of QB E.J. Manuel. I thought the Seminoles
would be in for a rough time with a first-year player behind center. That
clearly hasn’t been the case, as Jameis Winston has taken the country by storm.
I also missed out on UCLA and Utah. I predicted both teams would be worse to
some degree and said USC would win the Pac-12 South. That may still come true
(and UCLA still could be overrated), but right now it seems less likely.
Staying in the Pac-12, I had Oregon State and Washington
flipped. I expected OSU to pick up where they left off last year and they haven’t;
UW has been the clear leader of the conference’s second-tier. It’s not a huge
error considering I had the Beavers third and the Huskies fourth (in the
division), but I was off. I had similar luck with LSU, whom I proclaimed a cut
below the truly elite teams in the country. Once again I was close: LSU definitely
IS an elite team, but their defense is not, which is what I thought would cost
them a shot at the BCS title.
I said Stanford would be a good but not elite squad, which
as of last weekend seems to be true. However, there’s still a lot of games left
and the Cardinal may prove me wrong. My strangest call was picking Texas to win
the Big 12 but lose multiple games. A few weeks ago the Longhorns looked ready
to fire their coach and collapse. After the Red River upset, they’re leading
the conference at 3-0. Who cares about those losses to Ole Miss and BYU now?!
Finally, my best call was that Florida would not be a
contender. They wouldn’t have been even with Jeff Driskel still at QB, as the
offense has been just atrocious. The Gators are ranked outside the top 100 in
passing and are only in the middle of the pack in rushing. If not for their
continued superb defense, this team would be in real trouble. My skepticism of
the preseason top-15 ranking has been validated.
Whilst scouring the internet for fan reactions to Saturday’s
results (always an important exercise to understand how teams are REALLY
viewed), I came across many Washington fans whose position was that, because
Stanford had lost to Utah, their close loss to the Cardinal the week before was
invalidated. This is the kind of incorrect logic that is all too common in
football. Teams don’t have a numerical value of quality that is the end-all in
determining whether they win or lose. If that was the case Alabama would never
lose. Matchups are far more important than people seem to realize. They explain
why Oregon could beat Washington by 21 when Stanford beat them by three, or how
Auburn could score 30 on Ole Miss when Alabama scored only 25. Auburn’s not
better than Alabama. We know that.
What’s more, games don’t happen in a vacuum week-to-week.
Washington’s close loss the week before exposed weaknesses in the Cardinal’s
game and more than likely gave Utah’s coaches ideas for how to best attack
Stanford. It’s no surprise the Utes capitalized on the same issues UW did.
They had the benefit of a home crowd and useful game film to draw from. To
assume Washington is a fraud because the team they softened up lost the next
week is a fallacy. Stanford is better than both Washington and Utah, but not so
much that they couldn’t have lost to either of them. That’s what we’ve seen the
last couple of Saturdays. Stanford’s loss does not mean Washington is a bad
team or that UW got “exposed” by affiliation. That argument doesn't bear out.
I apologize for teasing this in the headline and saving it for last, but the Stanzis were flying hot and fast this week! Week Seven had the most individual Stanzis in a single week to date as well as a sighting
of the rare, nigh-impossible Double Stanzi! To clarify: a Double Stanzi doesn’t mean both
QB’s get one, as the rules clearly state a player must win the game to be
eligible. What it does signify is a contest in which both QB’s play poorly
enough to be awarded a Stanzi, even though only one can win. That was the case
when the Wolverines’ Devin Gardner (Two INT’s, one FUM) and the Nittany Lions’ Christian
Hackenberg (Two INT) went toe-to-toe in Happy Valley. What a day for college
football! I think I can die happy now. Here are all this week’s winners.
Trevone Boykin, TCU
Opponent: Kansas
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), led FG drive to put game
out of reach
A.J. Doyle, Massachusetts
Opponent: Miami (OH)
Performance: Two INT, threw game-winning TD
Keith Wenning, Ball State
Opponent: Kent State
Performance: Two INT (one on goal line, one returned to
1-yard line), threw game-winning TD
Terrel Hunt, Syracuse
Opponent: North Carolina State
Performance: Two INT, led two fourth-quarter TD drives
Corey Robinson, Troy
Opponent: Georgia State
Performance: Two INT (one on goal line, one in red zone),
threw game-winning TD
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
Opponent: Michigan
Performance: Two INT, led tying drive to send game to OT,
this
Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
Opponent: Ole Miss
Performance: One INT (in end zone), one FUM, led
game-winning FG drive
2013 Stanzi Awards
Devin Gardner, Michigan: 2
Keith Wenning, Ball State: 2
Connor Wood, Colorado: 1
Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech: 1
Braxton Miller, Ohio State: 1
Corey Robinson, Troy: 1
Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M: 1
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1
Jake Heaps, Kansas: 1
Gary Nova, Rutgers: 1
Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1
Brett Hundley, UCLA: 1
Connor Halliday, WSU: 1
A.J. Doyle, Massachusetts: 1
Justin Worley, Tennessee: 1
Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion: 1
Terrel Hunt, Syracuse: 1
Keith Wenning of Ball State has made his move! Gardner was
oh-so-close to taking the lead again with his third award, but was turned back
thanks to the determined effort of Hackenberg. I can’t wait to see what next
week brings.
Speaking of, here’s what to watch: UCF – Louisville (Friday),
Minnesota – Northwestern, Texas Tech – West Virginia, Florida – Mizzou, UCLA –
Stanford, Indiana – Michigan, Auburn – Texas A&M, Washington – ASU, USC –
Notre Dame and of course, Florida State – Clemson. That'll be a doozy.
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