A fun week for stats doesn’t always translate into great
football. Case in point: the top three teams in the polls put up 45, 49 and 57,
respectively, against patsies. At least Oregon and Clemson went on the road for
conference games, unlike Alabama. Syracuse and Colorado are far from
legitimate threats, but they’re still more respectable than a game against
transitioning FBS member Georgia State. Really Alabama, Chattanooga wasn’t
enough? You needed a second FCS team on the schedule? The Virginia Tech game
only buys you so much leeway.
The question of the week is how to quantify quality wins.
For example, both Ohio State and Stanford beat ranked opponents, but both teams
were clearly better than then their counterparts. Obviously, beating a ranked
team is more impressive than beating an unranked team, but the Buckeyes and
Cardinal were favored – they were expected to win. Ultimately, it comes down
to making the most reasonable, yet still subjective, judgment based on the
facts we already know about other teams and conferences.
For example: the Big Ten is bad. Period. There’s no way around
it. Among BCS conferences, which includes the American this year, it ranks at
least fourth, possibly fifth behind the Big 12 (which has some issues of its
own). We know this is a fact because of the Big Ten’s performance all last
season and the first month of this one in non-conference and bowl games. The
Big 12 has weakened since last season. We also know this to be true because of
the league’s pitiful showing in September compared to the quality it
demonstrated in 2012.
Despite some bumpy contests and noticeable chinks in the
armor the SEC is still the most powerful league. No other conference has as
many legitimate BCS title threats (that would be three – Alabama, Georgia and
LSU) or as strong a second tier (Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida). The
Pac-12 is the clear runner-up. Oregon and Stanford are a very respectable
ruling class, while Washington and UCLA (and possibly Oregon State and ASU)
make up a solid middle.
As such, a Pac-12 win has to count for more than a Big Ten
win when the defeated teams are of a relatively similar standing – as
Washington and Northwestern were. Stanford gets more points this week, even
though their win was at home. The Big Ten hasn’t done enough to earn trust in
that regard. What’s more, we’ve seen this movie before: in 2012 Ohio State
escaped multiple times against mediocre conference foes and ran the table. If
the Big Ten is just as bad as it was last season – which it seems is the case –
then we have to stay skeptical about OSU’s credentials.
Regardless, there was a lot of good football outside of the
scattered blowouts. Both the aforementioned Washington – Stanford and Ohio
State – Northwestern games were a lot of fun (and showed that perhaps the winning
teams have some work to do). Oklahoma State won a wild, back-and-forth affair
with K-State, while Miami (FL) survived a shootout with Georgia Tech. However,
for the second week in a row it was Georgia who played – and won – the most
exciting game in the nation, this time on the road at rival Tennessee in
overtime. The SEC also saw Auburn outlast Ole Miss and Mississippi State throw
a scare into LSU. Big 12 front-runner Oklahoma also barely escaped another
conference opponent in TCU, while Notre Dame, the team the Sooners beat last
week, topped Arizona State in a thriller in Arlington.
As the conference season matures we’ll get a better idea of
how the final standings will shake out. That starts next week with several key
matchups. Rutgers meets Louisville on Thursday night in a game that could
decide the AAC. The Red River Shootout (not letting it die) kicks off Saturday
morning. Florida at LSU headlines the midday slate, which is chock-full of
greatness: Northwestern – Wisconsin, Baylor – Kansas State and Oregon –
Washington. The day ends with some lesser, but still important conference
showdowns in Texas A&M at Ole Miss and Oregon State at Washington State.
The top 25 needs a few adjustments after the most recent
games. Remember that regardless of whether teams keep winning they also have to
show improvement and impress in relation to other teams. That’s why this week
sees the first significant changes in my rankings.
Top 25
1) Clemson
Clemson’s hold on my top spot hasn’t changed, even though the
victory over Virginia Tech is looking more like a quality win every week for
Alabama. The fact that Ole Miss lost again took the air out of that win, but
the main culprit is the Crimson Tide’s own schedule. Clemson’s win over
Syracuse doesn’t go down as a big feather in the Tigers’ cap, but the Orange
are significantly better than the Georgia State team ‘Bama beat. Clemson’s win
over Georgia is still the most valuable victory by any team. They remain on top.
2) Alabama
Ole Miss’ loss at Auburn didn’t do much to instill
confidence in the Tide, who continue to give off a very subdued air. I remain
convinced this is the most talented team in the country, but they’re not really
playing like it. Nick Saban would be the first person to say nothing is handed
to anyone, even Alabama. The Tide’s next three opponents are pitiful, so it’s
going to be hard to move them up even with impressive wins. Perhaps ‘Bama
should focus instead on the allegations of illegal benefits to players.
3) Florida State
FSU only has wins over Maryland and Pitt to really boast
about, but it’s how good the Seminoles have looked outside of the stats that
earns them this spot. This team hasn’t been held to fewer than 40 points by any
opponent, sure. They’re third in both scoring and scoring defense, which is great.
However, FSU has simply looked fantastic, like one of the great Seminoles teams of old,
dominating at every level en route to the current 5-0 record. Jameis Winston
has been a revelation, providing a definitive answer to the only significant
question the team had entering the year.
4) Stanford
I don’t think Stanford is the fourth-best team in the
country, but the blowout of Arizona State and win over Washington have to be
rewarded. At the very least those are better teams than any Oregon has
played. Even though the Cardinal haven’t been overly impressive, the schedule
has to count for something. Moving forward, this squad needs to show an ability
to move the ball a little more consistently, something that was a problem
against UW. I don’t expect the trip to Utah this week to be particularly
dangerous, though.
5) Oregon
The Ducks have been the nation’s most impressive team but
have played a very weak set of opponents. As great as UO has been, there’s a
legitimate fear that the dominance won’t continue once the schedule ramps up,
which it will this week at Seattle. Unlike Stanford, the Ducks don’t get all of
their toughest games at home. Trips to Washington and Palo Alto will test the
mettle of this team far more than the meager competition to this point. Now, if
the Huskies are just another blowout, we’ll have something to talk about.
6) Georgia
Whew. Though the Bulldogs did come out ahead on the
scoreboard against Tennessee (thanks to some very timely and fortunate plays),
it’s hard not to look at the rivalry game with the Vols as a net loss. UGA lost
RB Keith Marshall and WR Justin Scott-Wesley for the season after having
already lost multiple other players for significant time. The SEC season might
very well come down to a game of attrition for this team. While I don’t foresee
losses to Mizzou (overrated) or Vandy, just winning the East is going to be a
major task for Georgia.
7) Ohio State
First, congratulations are in order to the Buckeyes. Beating
a top-25 team on the road is no cakewalk. However, the result won’t end up
helping OSU much in the polls. It shouldn’t Everyone saw the same thing in
Evanston: Ohio State played pretty much evenly by a team who should not have
had the horses to keep up. At times the Bucks struggled to move the ball and
most of the game the Wildcats had no trouble shredding the OSU defense. For a
team that’s allegedly one of the nation’s elite, the performance wasn’t
convincing.
8) LSU
Georgia hangover or not, those first three quarters against
Mississippi State were… troubling. The same Bulldogs who managed merely a field
goal against Oklahoma State piled up more than 450 yards and 26 points on the
LSU defense despite a fourth-quarter shutout. It’s good to see the Tigers
racking up the passing yards for once, but come on. This game shouldn’t have been
close. Florida’s defense is a lot better than MSU’s and LSU will need to play a
lot better to beat the Gators this week, even in Death Valley.
9) Louisville
Temple’s terrible, so… 30-7? Eh, I’ll allow it. It wasn’t as
if the Owls were ever capable of really making it a game. To the unending
relief of college football fans, Louisville finally plays an opponent worth
something this Thursday. No, Rutgers (at home) isn’t the same as Alabama or
Oregon coming to town, but at least the Scarlet Knights are better than the
garbage this team has been cleaning up every week. The next game against UCF
might actually prove to be more significant for the AAC standings, though.
10) South Carolina
South Carolina is tough to rank, because I really want to
punish the Gamecocks for winning close against subpar competition. However, the
key word there is “win,” and that’s what this team has been doing. The whole
Jadeveon Clowney situation is a bit strange, but it honestly might not matter
if he is hurt (or not) against upcoming opponents Arkansas, Tennessee, Mizzou
and Mississippi State. Late-season matchups with Florida and Clemson seem a
little ominous at this point, though, so it’d be good for everyone to make nice
while the schedule is still forgiving.
11) Texas A&M
I remain unconvinced that A&M is an elite team, though
given Ole Miss’ struggles I’m not predicting much trouble with the Rebels this
week. It’s the 30 points per game allowed that worries me; relying on the
offense to bail you out every week is not a sustainable football plan. The fact
that the Aggies are playing a cupcake schedule (eight home games in two
four-week stints) will help. The most likely scenario is still around nine or
ten wins, but with that D playing the way it is I think someone will trip this
team up along the way.
12) Oklahoma
The Sooners probably should have been able to put TCU away a
little earlier. OU dominated the Horned Frogs for much of the game but still
only led by three with two minutes left. If this is the Big 12’s best team the
conference is in potentially disastrous shape. I like the Sooners, but TCU is
playing with a backup quarterback and has been somewhat of a disappointment in
2013. The Red River Shootout is going to be very fun this week given that OU might
be able to get Mack Brown fired. Is that what they really want, though?
13) Miami (FL)
Give credit to the Hurricanes. Down 17-7 after the first
quarter, Miami responded, holding Georgia Tech to only six more points until a
meaningless garbage-time touchdown. This was the kind of performance I needed
to see from the ‘Canes, who couldn’t coast on the Florida win forever. Winning
by double digits despite four turnovers? That’s impressive. The North Carolina
game no longer looks like the showdown it promised to be in the preseason,
though Miami must still keep winning to keep pace with surging Virginia Tech in
the division race.
14) Washington
I was impressed with the Huskies’ performance at Stanford
and not because I think the Cardinal are world-beaters. Independent of the
opposition, Washington looked good, dominating on offense and defense. Ah, but
those special teams. UW got killed in the crucial third phase and lost the game
because of it. I would be surprised to see the Huskies beat Oregon this week
because of the difficulty of playing two top teams in a one-week span.
Nevertheless, Washington appears to clearly be the third-best squad in the
conference.
15) Florida
The trip to LSU this week will probably mark the beginning
of the end for any kind of SEC run. I’d be surprised to see this limited team knock off
the Tigers in Death Valley and even if they did they’d still need to beat
Georgia AND South Carolina in November. There is reason for hope – Georgia did
just struggle to beat the same Tennessee team the Gators already handled – but
with this offense you can’t realistically expect UF to repeat the double-digit
wins they reeled off in 2012. Even overrated Mizzou might give this team
problems.
16) UCLA
The Bruins’ performance at Utah Thursday night was very
disappointing. People with blinders on will point to a road conference win
against a decent foe as a positive, but the reality is this game was anything
but. UCLA looked out of sorts on offense and didn’t really do
anything defensively to engender optimism. The six interceptions were, quite
frankly, a lie: five of them came on fluky deflected balls that went straight
to defenders. Even with the giant turnover margin, the Utes nearly sent the
game to overtime. This team isn’t great.
17) Michigan
A dominant second half against Minnesota has the Wolverines
thinking big once again. They should, as Saturday’s game seemingly got Big Blue
back on a collision course with Ohio State. However, as promising as that game
was, it doesn’t erase memories of the previous two games. Michigan has to earn
its way back into my trust one game at a time, not in one quick (but
impressive) stroke. The Minnesota game was a great start. This week’s road trip
to a maybe-worse-than-we-thought Penn State squad will tell more.
18) Texas Tech
I have to take a bit of a leap of faith with Texas Tech. Everyone
knew the Red Raiders would put up a million on Kansas and they’ll likely have
no trouble with Iowa State or West Virginia. Can they play with Oklahoma,
though? Oklahoma State? That’s the big question for this team. Unfortunately,
we won’t really have any indication until the actual games. The Big 12 is too
much of a mess to make sense of this year. The good news for TTU is that Baker
Mayfield should return at some point, as his injury has not been deemed
season-ending.
19) Virginia Tech
The horrendous offense being played in Blacksburg scares me.
There’s always potential for VT to lay an egg when only one side of the ball is
producing. The Hokies are close to being 3-3 and a completely lost cause. Yet
there’s a method to the madness of Beamerball and it’s worth noting that,
regardless of the close calls, Tech has reeled off five straight after the
opening loss to ‘Bama. This is a legitimate contender for the Coastal Division
in an ACC that has beefed up seemingly overnight. With no Clemson or Florida State
on the schedule, watch out.
20) Nebraska
Virginia Tech’s polar opposite lies in Lincoln, where the
Cornhuskers are all about offense. Nebraska loves all forms of offense, including that
of its opponents, which explains why the ‘Huskers defensive philosophy amounts
to a merry wave as ballcarriers go speeding by. To be fair, the team did play
well versus Illinois last week and should have a decent time this Saturday
against hapless Purdue. After that the sked gets a tad trickier, with
Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan. Taylor Martinez’ health will be critical
as the season moves along.
21) Oklahoma State
You can make the argument that Okie State is a bad game
against West Virginia from being undefeated… but that would leave out the other
side of the coin, last Saturday's great escape from Kansas State. Honestly, OSU
hasn’t been great either of the past two weeks. The only difference was the
venue; playing the Wildcats at home versus the Mountaineers in faraway
Morgantown makes for a striking change. This is a very good week for the
Cowboys to be idle and address some issues, such as why a QB is leading the
team in rushing.
22) Northwestern
Give the Wildcats credit for nearly beating Ohio State, but
even though the 10-point margin wasn’t indicative of the competitiveness of the
contest it was quite clear which team had the edge in talent. The Buckeyes
self-destructed with critical mistakes, fumbled in both red zones and still had
enough to pull out the victory. While I’ll keep Northwestern in my rankings, I
don’t this this game showed the Wildcats are near OSU’s elite level; instead,
it showed Ohio State is actually a lot closer to Northwestern than we thought.
More on this fallacy later.
23) Fresno State
For the first time in 2013 the Bulldogs managed to hold a
giant lead. Granted, it was against Idaho, but a small victory is still a
victory. The rap on Fresno is that it’s an air-it-out all-the-time offense, but
that’s not really accurate: the team averages a respectable 164 yards per game
on the ground. The only major weakness – which I’ve mentioned before – is the
D, ranked in the bottom quarter of the country even after holding the Vandals
to 14 points. The road trips to San Diego State and Wyoming (in particular) are
the biggest stumbling blocks remaining.
In all honesty, no other teams deserve to be ranked. To fill
out the last two spots in my top 25, I offer this melting pot of awfulness:
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish generally manage to win games, even when
they shouldn’t. Close victories over Purdue, Michigan State and ASU attest to that.
The argument in favor of the Irish is that both their losses (Michigan,
Oklahoma) came to good teams. The argument against is that none of the teams
they’ve beaten is good. MSU has a great defense and ASU a solid offense,
but neither is close to a complete squad. The best praise I can give is that I
would take ND over the rest of the teams here, because they would find a way to
win.
Baylor
Baylor is one of the greatest teams in the history of
college football. The Bears are leading the country in scoring and passing and
are second in rushing, while the defense is 14th in points allowed. QB
Bryce Petty and RB Lache Seastrunk are both going to win the Heisman and it’s
likely Baylor will go undefeated. Now, for reality: Baylor has played three FBS
teams. They haven’t faced a top-75 offense or a top-85 defense (West Virginia:
79th in offense, 89th in defense; Louisiana-Monroe: 99th
in offense, 93 in defense; Buffalo: 101st in offense, 101st
in defense). Ouch.
Oregon State
The Beavers continue to find new ways to subvert
expectations. I’m not saying this is a great team, because it clearly isn’t.
The running game is still atrocious and the defense is less than a work in
progress. And yet… I kind of like them to go into Pullman and beat WSU, then
beat Cal and have a six-game winning streak when Stanford rolls into town.
Don’t tell me it wouldn’t be just like the Beavs to kill the Pac-12 by
upsetting the Cardinal and losing to USC the next week. Curse you, Riley! Curse
youuuuuuuu!
Wisconsin
The winner of the Northwestern showdown in Madison will
likely emerge as the only ranked team of the two. The Badgers are in decent shape, thanks
to a week off to prepare and a style the Wildcats haven’t seen all season.
While people will talk about Wisconsin’s problems defending the fast spread, I
think the bigger question is whether Northwestern will be able to handle
Bucky’s power. Remember, this team already saw a spread in Ohio State that
features much better players than the Wildcats can boast – and the Badgers
outgained the Buckeyes.
Auburn
It doesn’t feel quite right to say this, but… Auburn… isn’t…
bad. There’s not much of a passing game, but the Tigers run the ball well and
play decent defense. I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into Saturday’s victory over
Ole Miss, but it’s more than most teams have accomplished. Wazzu isn’t terrible
either, so the opening win counts for something. What’s more, the LSU loss
(35-21) was respectable. With eight home games (SEC scheduling: Wheeeeeeee!), Auburn
could be one big upset away from actually becoming a player in the West race.
Pac-12 Report
Hey hey! First the first time in 2013 we get all twelve
conference teams playing a league opponent in the same week. Colorado at
Arizona State! Cal at UCLA! Okay, those aren’t that exciting. But still: Stanford
at Utah isn’t bad, OSU at WSU could be entertaining and Arizona at USC (Thursday) promises to be very interesting. The big one is Oregon at Washington,
but we’ll get to the upcoming games in a moment. First, a rewind.
I’ll reiterate what I said earlier: UCLA’s win was very
disappointing. You can point to the 13 penalties and the fact that it was a
midweek game in a hostile environment, but that’s no excuse for turning six
interceptions (including five in the second half) into just 17 points. After
going up 14-7 the Utes looked dead in the water, but the Bruins never put the
game away. I was actually hoping for overtime to teach the team a lesson. As
for Travis Wilson, the Utah QB should actually be given a break. It sounds
crazy, but of his six picks only one or maybe two was his fault. UCLA got some
bizarre tips and deflections, including at least one that went straight off a receiver’s
hands. The Utes are probably feeling very frustrated starting 0-2 in conference
play, but they shouldn’t be ashamed of their performance against UCLA or Oregon
State.
I don’t want to waste time on how ASU managed to blow the
Notre Dame game – did I call that or what? – so let’s quickly recap the least
competitive game of the week. Oregon gave up several big pass plays early
against Colorado, then dominated the rest of the way. As good as the final
margin was, the defense in the first quarter was alarming. UO should not feel
satisfied with that kind of effort against an overmatched opponent. Other teams
(for example, Washington) can and will exploit those lapses far more
effectively than the Buffaloes. The Ducks have to play better this week.
Wazzu at Cal was an interesting, competitive game with a
deceiving score. Neither team could run the ball whatsoever, but neither cared,
so the result was a 1000-yard combined passing effort by the two Air Raid
offenses. It’s easy to look at the 22-point win and assume WSU won going away, but that's not the case. Cal outgained the Cougars and
had five turnovers, including a pair of awful first-quarter fumbles on the goal
line. There’s definitely not a huge gap between the teams, best seen in their
collective failure to run the ball with any competency in short-yardage
situations. It’s great to be able to throw it all over the place, but at times
you need to be able to pick up a couple yards here and there on the ground. Neither
the Bears nor Cougs are at that point yet.
The UW – Stanford game was a thing to behold, even if only
one offense showed up. It’s actually pretty amazing to think about where
Stanford would have been in this game had Washington not allowed a complete
meltdown on special teams. That’s not to take away from the win – special teams
are as vital as offense and defense – but it needs to be said that UW probably
should have won the game. Now, just because they should have won doesn’t make
the Huskies the better team. I still think the Cardinal are more talented and
match up better against Oregon. What I do think this game showed, though, is
that Stanford is closer to Washington that we thought – not the other way
around. More on that later.
The easy pick in the Thursday game is USC over Arizona.
Teams usually play better in their first game after being “liberated” from a
coach and SC’s defense had been superb up until that second-half collapse in
Tempe. I’m still not sure the rest of the Trojans’ team is any good at all,
however, those fears are negated by the knowledge that Arizona is terrible. At
least, their passing game is, which is what the Wildcats will need to stop the
Trojans from literally putting all eleven defenders in the box and daring B.J.
Denker to complete a pass longer than five yards. Pssst! He can’t!
Surprisingly, the Oregon – Washington showdown is the first
Pac-12 game on Saturday. The Ducks are currently favored by two TD’s, which
seems high. I certainly have much more respect for UW than I have in a long
time. The Huskies offense finally seems to have both competent skill players
AND linemen, while the ugly defense has been radically improved under Justin
Wilcox (traitor!). The improved recruiting since the Dark Days of Tyrone
Willingham has also obviously ratcheted up the talent level of the program,
creating defensive depth and allowing UW to competently run an up-tempo offense
in 2013. However… I believe UO is still the superior team and find it
exceedingly unlikely that the Ducks will lose to a team that is essentially a
lower-octane version of themselves. Throw in the fact that Washington is coming
off a difficult, emotional game with Stanford and it makes more sense to take Oregon
by a couple scores.
Stanford and Utah makes for a fun matchup of teams opening
up their offenses this season. The Cardinal have started tossing the ball
downfield consistently for the first time in several seasons (Andrew Luck doesn’t
count, his WR’s were awful), while the Utes have finally found a triggerman who
can stay healthy for their spread. I like this Utah team, which is a couple of
bad breaks from being 5-0, but Stanford is too imposing to pick against, even
on the road. Although several of the turnovers against UCLA were fluky, at some
point you make your own luck. Stanford’s D is much better than UCLA’s. It’s
going to take some major mistakes by the Cardinal (something they usually excel
at avoiding) for Utah to pull the upset.
Colorado at ASU is relegated to an evening kick-off on the
Pac-12 Network because, let’s face it, no one wants to see this game. Arizona
State is better than CU, but not in a very impressive or entertaining way. The
Sun Devils have also been very sloppy this season, as opposed to the clean and
efficient way they started the Todd Graham era. As I predicted before the
season, Colorado is improved, but not so much that it really shows on the
scoreboard. I don’t have a lot of faith in ASU right now, but I have even less
in the Buffaloes. In Tempe this should be a comfortable win for the Fork.
Cal and UCLA is another late game, although for some reason
it's taking place on the ESPN family of networks (presumably because East Coast
insomniacs love bad football). After last week’s semi-exposing, I’m tempted to
say the Bruins are on upset alert. But Cal is so bad. I can’t do it. I do
expect the Golden Bears to be able to move the ball after watching Utah do so
fairly regularly, but the question is whether Cal will turn it over like the
Utes did last week (and they themselves did versus WSU). In the end, it’s
doubtful the Bears' defense will be able to slow down UCLA for too long. Despite
some nagging questions from the Utah game, UCLA is a safe bet.
The final night game sees Oregon State take on WSU in
Pullman for the first time since 2009. The matchup features a battle of the 121st
(OSU) and 122nd (WSU) rushing attacks in major college football, so
get ready for around 150 pass attempts Saturday. Mike Leach has done a
nice job improving the Cougars in a short time frame, particularly the woeful
defense. Still, I’m surprised to see Wazzu favored in this game. I have a
healthy respect for the nastiness of the Palouse and the game will likely be played
in near-freezing temperatures, but… Oregon State, despite the rocky start to
the season, is simply better. The Beavers are getting a few guys back from
injury, are rested after a bye and generally play THIS kind of spread very
well. Cougs QB Connor Halliday doesn’t scare anyone with his feet, so the OSU
kryptonite isn’t in play here. I don’t expect Wazzu to be shut out, but I’ll go
with Oregon State.
Heisman Watch
With a dearth of dominant, game-changing defensive linemen
and versatile, every-down backs, this list has unfortunately become a roll call of
power-program QB’s. I have to call it like I see it. On that note, I think it’s
best if I leave Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel out this season, not because
he’s not going to produce, but because there’s just no way the Heisman voters
are going to let him near the award again. Fair or not, those folks are
sticklers about certain things. I want to be realistic about this.
Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson
Boyd’s numbers against Syracuse: 20-27, 455 yards, five
TD’s. He threw two picks, but dang.
Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia
Given how decimated UGA’s offense is, Murray might be the
most deserving player by the end of the year.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Mariota threw five TD passes, ran for two more and hasn’t
turned the ball over this season. Incredible.
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
My choice for the Heisman to this point, Winston has
actually outperformed his outlandish hype.
Random Thoughts and Observations
We’ll start with the Stanzis this week.
Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion
Opponent: Liberty
Performance: Two INT, led game-winning TD drive
Braxton Miller, Ohio State
Opponent: Northwestern
Performance: Two FUM, one INT, led game-winning TD drive
Brett Hundley, UCLA
Opponent: Utah
Performance: One INT (for TD), one FUM (recovered himself),
ran for game-winning TD
(As with Justin Worley last week, Hundley’s performance
wasn’t a “true” Stanzi in that he recovered his own fumble. However, he was
called for grounding on a play that turned a potential clinching TD into a FG
and threw a horrendous pick-six that tied the game late. He deserves to be on
the list.)
2013 Stanzi Awards
Devin Gardner, Michigan: 2
Connor Wood, Colorado: 1
Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech: 1
Braxton Miller, Ohio State: 1
Keith Wenning, Ball State: 1
Jake Heaps, Kansas: 1
Gary Nova, Rutgers: 1
Brett Hundley, UCLA: 1
Connor Halliday, WSU: 1
Justin Worley, Tennessee: 1
Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion: 1
It was looking like a banner week for the maligned Pac-12
refs through most of the weekend’s games. Faced with several tough calls in the
UCLA – Utah game, the crew (I can’t find out which one it was) unflinchingly
upheld a couple of wacky interceptions and a crucial onside kick. The rest of
the weekend passed by without incident until… the incompletion that ended the
Washington – Stanford game. It was a hard call, no question. I personally thought
the ball did hit the ground. However, for a pass that was ruled a completion on
the field, the replays shown certainly did not provide conclusive evidence that
the call should have been overturned. It was the one sour note in an otherwise very
good weekend for Pac-12 refs. Try again next week, guys.
An interesting part of the SEC’s recent run of dominance has
been the league’s de facto classes, which have divided the conference into
tiers that all help it maintain its reputation. The SEC has seen an unusually
long period with a distinct lower class, one of the secrets to its success. This
is represented by teams like Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Ole Miss and (usually)
Mississippi State. These squads are not just bad; they’ve also served as
punching bags for the rest of the teams. It helps a conference immensely when
three or four teams every year don’t have a single league win outside of their
own weak group. This allows the middle tier of the conference to load up on
cheap wins while still losing, in turn, to the upper class, which carries the
reputation of the league. It’s no shock that when the Pac-12 became the second-best
conference last season, it featured a trio of teams – Colorado, Cal and Wazzu –
that went a combined 1-22 against the rest of the league. You want your
conference to be strong, but the truth is that the best-case scenario is
actually to have a class of terrible teams for everyone else to beat up. The SEC's run has been buoyed by a strangely consistent bottom tier for the past several seasons.
There's a logical fallacy based on assumption that tends to pervade college football. This was never more evident than this weekend, when
Washington played at Stanford and Ohio State went to Northwestern. The belief
is that Ohio State and Stanford are both elite teams, therefore Washington and
Northwestern must also be very good for competing so closely with them.
However, this quickly becomes a circular argument: Team A is good because it
lost a close game to Team B, and Team B is good because it beat Team A. What if
neither team is good? That’s the scary thing for which the polls cannot account.
We have zero evidence that the Buckeyes and Cardinal are great teams – though they
very well might be – so we can’t know the Huskies and Wildcats are, either. The
problem is that the wins all four schools accumulated to this point were
essentially in a vacuum, as none of them has a win (prior to this week) against
a currently ranked opponent. I’m less skeptical of the Pac-12 duo because the Pac-12
is simply a better conference, but there’s still the possibility that all four
schools are overrated.
After hearing Washington coach Steve Sarkisian complain that
Stanford was faking injuries, Cardinal coach David Shaw fired back with some
fightin’ words: “We don’t fake injuries. We never have and we never will.” All right,
maybe “fighting” was too strong a term. It does seem like the start of a delightful
new rivalry in the Pac-12; fans of both schools are well on their way to crackin’ wise about each other's mommas. In general, I dislike coaches
criticizing other teams, but Sark does have history on his side in this case. I
don’t think Stanford should be getting the benefit of the doubt on this
subject, regardless of how indignant Shaw gets.
However, the “fake injury” epidemic is merely a side effect
of the NCAA’s failure to properly monitor such activities. My favorite response
to faking injury is the one not seen in the Oregon clip above: immediately
after Thomas returned to the game, Stanford was hit with a mysterious 15-yard
penalty. The refs never explained who the foul was on. The NCAA could mandate
that a player who has to leave the game due to injury must sit out the rest of
the series. This would be a very fair way to ensure the cheating (because that’s
what it is) tactic of faking injuries stops AND would promote player safety for
the coaches who say the no-huddle causes injuries (still waiting for a shred of
proof on that one). Forcing an injured player to sit out would solve both
problems at once, but of course, that’s not what the coaches who dislike the
no-huddle are actually after. They want the rules of the game changed to suit
their style, a pathetically transparent ploy that, fortunately, the NCAA has
seen through.
Next week: The Ohio State – Northwestern – Wisconsin muddle will
be figured out, as will the question of whether Washington is “back.” More
importantly, though, we’ll get some clarity on how close the AAC is to becoming
the worst BCS conference of all time! Current record against non-AAC teams:
18-19. Current record against other BCS teams: 3-12, with wins over Purdue,
Kentucky and Penn State (the big one!). Current record against the FCS: 5-3. I
knew it was bad, but I didn’t know it was THIS bad.
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