Pac-12 Preview
The Pac-12 in 2013 is both very easy and very difficult to
predict. In general, the "levels" of the teams are obvious. Going by division, Oregon
and Stanford are the two best teams in the North and the conference; OSU and
Washington are the underdogs with a chance at upsetting the balance and Cal and
WSU are the bottom-feeders. In the South, ASU and USC are the front-runners but
will face challenges from UCLA and Arizona, while Utah and Colorado bring up
the rear. It’s a simple three-tiered hierarchy in both divisions. The problem, though,
is deciding the exact order how the teams will finish, which is essentially a
question of a few key games.
Once again, I’ve mapped out the entire season for each team,
picking definite wins and losses and “swing” games that could go either way to
determine the range of record the school can reasonably expect to have. The
exact results of that exercise will be revealed at the end of the post. First,
I need to give a few thoughts about each squad, in order of how I predict they’ll
finish.
North Division
Oregon
I said a lot about Oregon in my contenders section, so I’ll
try not to repeat myself too much. Despite losing to Stanford last season, UO
was the best team in the conference, averaging two touchdowns more than the
next closest team and only giving up 21 points per Pac-12 contest. The personnel
losses from that team are significant, but manageable. Michael Clay, Kiko
Alonso and Dion Jordan were excellent linebackers, while no one running back
will equal the production of Kenjon Barner. However, Oregon has talented
players ready to take their places and these are essentially the only
important departures. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is one of the best in the
country and slotback De’Anthony Thomas will continue to work his magic on the
ground, through the air and in the return game. Defensively, 2013 may feature
the best secondary in UO history, which is REALLY saying something, considering
the contributions of the Gang Green crew, Rashad Bauman and company, and 2008’s
“D-Boyz.”
Moreover, the schedule is mighty nice. For the first time in
a decade UO misses USC (the presumed winner in the South) and plays two of its
four conference road games at Colorado and Arizona, which should be easy wins.
Additionally, non-league games against Tennessee and at Virginia are winnable
yet provide the team with a chance to impress the nation on a big stage. The road
does get more treacherous late, with a trip to Stanford and the Civil War
finale (at home), but the truth is the Ducks will be favored in every game.
With the talent on the roster and a very favorable schedule, I have Oregon
running the table.
Stanford
Stanford, as you’ll see by my win/loss range below, could
absolutely do the same. The Cardinal beat the Ducks and won the Pac-12 last
year despite playing without a QB for the first half of the season. LB Chase
Thomas is the only big loss from the conference’s best defense, which
gave up an outrageous 2.3 yards a carry in 2012 (no other team averaged fewer than four). ‘Backers Shave Skov, Trent Murphy and A.J. Tarpley anchor one of
the best units in the country, while ballhawk Ed Reynolds covers things up from
his safety position. On offense, the massive Cardinal front will once again look
to grind opponents into dust and should make things easier for young Kevin Hogan,
who showed great promise – and more importantly, efficiency – once given the
starting job.
However, as I said in my contenders section, there’s
absolutely nothing about the offense that scares anyone. Stanford ranked
seventh last season in yards and points per game. Those numbers are unlikely to
improve considering the losses of both starting tight ends (Zach Ertz and Levine
Toilolo), the two most productive receivers (Drew Terrell and Jamal-Rashad Patterson)
and of course, RB Stepfan Taylor, who only accounted for a third of the team’s
entire offensive production. But the biggest problem for the Cardinal is luck;
the team was extremely fortunate last year to beat Arizona, Oregon State,
Oregon and UCLA (in the Pac-12 Championship). They were outgained in five wins
and in eight games overall. This team will be quite good, but I don’t think another 12
win-season is realistic.
Oregon State
What’s realistic for OSU? With Sean Mannion finally named as
the starting QB, the Beavers should think big. I’m not predicting them to go
12-0, but every game on the schedule is winnable and the team looks to have
its mojo back after going 8-16 in 2010-11. Defensively, ends Scott Crichton and
Dylan Wynn are classic 4-3 pass rushers and D.J. Alexander and Michael Doctor
head a strong LB corps that should continue to move the program back towards
its “West Coast Linebacker U” aspirations. The loss of Jordan Poyer in the secondary
is no doubt a blow, but enough talent remains (Ryan Murphy, Rashaad Reynolds)
that I don’t foresee a massive drop-off.
Oregon State’s offense has long been built on efficiency, not
explosiveness, but that might change somewhat this year. After rushing for an
awful 124 yards per game last year, the Beavs should finally be able to
complement their aerial attack with some consistency on the ground thanks to an
improving and cohesive line. OSU isn’t going to remind anyone of Oregon, but should
be able to top 2012’s paltry 1,617 total yards with ease. The RB’s are a year
older and better, which should also help. Now the question is whether the
passing game can continue to click as it did in the first half of the season.
Mannion was impressive before his injury but regressed afterwards. He needs to
prove he can play a full season of good football before I feel comfortable
picking the Beavers to really challenge for the conference title. Also rough: the
five best opponents are the last five games on the schedule.
Washington
What’s that about QB’s putting together a full season? To be
fair, Keith Price had a marvelous 2011 and tried to do too much last year after
losing a ton of playmakers. He’s not going to come out and win the Pac-12
singlehandedly, but he’ll look better than he did last season. Part of that is
because of the rapport his offense should have with 10 returning starters.
Another is that his skill players are all solid. Bishop Sankey is a good
workhorse at RB and Kasen Williams has become a true number one receiver. Of
course, the Huskies also feature Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who should be
regarded as the top TE in college football. Add that up, and you’ve got an
offensive stew, baby!
The defense is a little more questionable. Coach Steve
Sarkisian has certainly raised the overall talent level of this team since
taking over in 2009, but UW’s defense hasn’t shown the kind of growth it should
have at this point. Losing all-conference CB Desmond Trufant and S Justin Glen
(76 tackles) won’t help. There are some pieces here. S/LB Shaq Thompson more or
less lived up to his very high billing as a freshman, LB’s John Timu and Travis
Feeney will continue to be impressive and S Sean Parker has long anchored the
secondary in Seattle. But there’s not quite enough to predict a huge jump. With
an improved offense, that might not be necessary all the time, but against the
Oregons and Stanfords of the world it probably will. Opening with Boise State
and against Illinois in Chicago (bad team but a long trip) could either
jump-start or cripple this team right from the outset.
Washington State
Wazzu finished a disappointing 3-9 in Mike Leach’s first
year, but there were a couple of encouraging signs. The Cougars’ D, which on
the surface looked as bad as ever, actually finished fourth in the league
against the pass and only gave up 4.2 yards per rush (good for sixth). Those
numbers are atypical of a nine-loss team. WSU once again “Coug-ed” several
games, such as a 35-34 home loss to Colorado and a pair of painful one-score
losses to division winners Stanford and UCLA, whom Wazzu outgained by an average
of 150 yards. This team was not as bad as it looked in 2012.
The killer was pass efficiency defense, as the Cougs allowed
a league-worst 68.5% completion rate. That number should go down as the team
returns nine defensive starters, including star safeties Deone Buchannon and
Casey Locker. Losing rushbacker Travis Long will hurt, but the second year in a
new system will see improved production. The same can probably be said for
Leach’s offense, to which the players have had a year to adjust. QB Connor Halliday
didn’t set the world on fire in his relief appearances last year; he’ll need to
be better to make this attack work. Rushing has never been a primary (or
secondary) concern of the Air Raid, but keeping defenses more honest will be
paramount: WSU rushed for an astounding 349 yards ON THE YEAR in 2012.
Ultimately, I think this team will improve again, but it won’t necessarily be
reflected in the win column.
California
It’s hard to know what to expect for the Golden Bears under
new coach Sonny Dykes. We do know that they’ll throw; Dykes’ offenses have done
that in spades. But Cal isn’t Wazzu. This program has more talent than that and
shouldn’t be satisfied with airing it out as the first, second and third
option. That would be a massive waste of the squad’s athletic resources. With
that said, RB Brendan Bigelow flashed incredible potential last season and
could be a perfect fit for a spread offense. Ka’Deem Carey thrived in a similar
situation at Arizona, but the caveat is that Cal doesn’t have a great QB like
Matt Scott to take the reins. Zach Kline, Jared Goff… whichever player
ultimately takes the most snaps will have to deal with a lot of pressure.
The Bears can’t even lean on what was, until 2012, a strong
and talented defense. Only half the starters return, just like on offense, and
they’ll be moving to a 4-3. As with Washington, there are some good pieces here
– DT Deandre Coleman, S Michael Lowe and LB’s Jalen Jefferson and Nick Forbes
all represent their respective units well – but not enough to significantly
improve the defense or make up for what could be a rough transitional year on
offense. It’s worth noting that last season was a complete meltdown for Cal, so
it’s unlikely every break will go against the team again in 2013. However, that’s
still not enough for me to predict the Bears jumping out of the North cellar,
much less really being a factor in the conference race.
South Division
USC
After a year of abuse from opposing fans and the media, the
Trojans will be ready to make people eat their words. The QB situation will be
different. That’s probably a good thing. For too long SC allowed its “golden
boy” tradition of glorifying signal-callers to overshadow the rest of the
talent in the program. This was evident in how the Trojans increasingly abandoned
the run in each of the past two seasons to pump up the passing stats at the
expense of wins. Perhaps a more measured approach, with a less-capable QB, will
pay off. The weapons are still there: Marqise Lee remains the most dominant
receiver in the game and Nelson Agholor should slide nicely into the hole left
by the departed Robert Woods. Silas Redd, while still not the incredible player
some believe him to be, is more than good enough to put up numbers behind a great O-line.
However, whenever the Trojans have been great – I mean
National title great – it’s been because of defense, not offense. The star-studded
offenses USC fielded in the mid-2000’s would have gone nowhere without elite
defenses to get them the ball. Consider that from 2004 to 2008, SC allowed more
than 300 yards per game only once. Since Lane Kiffin took over, the defense has
averaged 400, 375 and 394 yards per game. The 2013 group should be closer to
the former than the latter. LB Devon Kennard returns from last year’s preseason
torn pectoral and joins with Hayes Pullard and Dion Bailey to form an
intimidating trio. S T.J. McDonald is gone, but with his average cover skills
and penchant for gambling and penalties I honestly don’t think he’ll be missed.
This team is beginning to really feel the impact of the scholarship
restrictions laid down by the NCAA, but with the talent available (if not the
depth), SC should return to the Pac-12 title game.
Arizona State
The Sun Devils broke through last season, shocking the
conference with new coach Todd Graham and frosh QB Taylor Kelly. If not for a
tight loss in a wild shootout with UCLA, it would have been ASU, not the
Bruins, playing in the Pac-12 Championship. The good news is that despite the
loss of RB Cameron Marshall, the ground game shouldn’t miss a beat thanks to
the excellent duo of Marion Grice and D.J. Foster, who both excel rushing and
receiving. There are a few losses along the line and in the receiving corps, but
Kelly’s continued maturation should be enough to nullify those issues. The same
is true for the defense, which loses leading tacklers LB Brandon Magee and S Keelan
Johnson but otherwise returns most of a decent unit that ranked a respectable
fourth in the conference in 2012. DT Will Sutton is a monster capable of
devouring double teams, who strikes fear in the hearts of every line he faces.
His mates along the line aren’t no-names, either: Jaxon Hood, Junior Onyeali and
DE/LB Carl Bradford combine to form a fearsome pass-rushing unit.
The bad news is in the back seven. Although there’s no reason
to think the D will suddenly become a sieve, it’s unlikely ASU will lead the Pac-12
in passing yardage and pass efficiency defense again. Ultimately, I think the
Sun Devils will be more or less as good as last season, but a hidden nugget
about their successful 2012 campaign was that they only beat one team with a
winning record (Navy, in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl). With Wisconsin and Notre
Dame on the non-league schedule and Stanford and OSU out of the North, ASU will have a difficult road to topping last season’s eight wins.
UCLA
The Bruins lived a charmed existence
last year. Like Arizona State, they started a redshirt freshman QB who
immediately made the team relevant. Brett Hundley did all that could be asked
of him and more, but for UCLA to make it back to the Pac-12 title game in 2013 he’ll
need to be even better. I’m not sure that’s realistic. Departed RB Johnathan
Franklin was the heart and soul of the Bruins and his 1,734 yards will be hard
to replace. Losing TE Joe Fauria, a reliable and dominant red-zone target, won’t
help either. The offense won’t completely stall out, but it won’t have the
luxury of playing off a veteran defense anymore.
Anthony Barr, NFL prospect
extraordinaire, decided to return to UCLA for his senior season, so the Bruins did
manage to avoid total catastrophe. Still, the losses here are significant. Datone Jones
was a great, versatile end and Tevin McDonald may have been the league’s
most underrated safety. The secondary must also replace SS Andrew Abbott along
with stalwart CB’s Aaron Hester and Sheldon Price, which makes the Bruins’ pass
defense highly suspect. In the pass-happy, spread-you-out Pac-12, that’s a
recipe for disaster. To make matters worse, talented pass-rusher Owamagbe
Odighizuwe was lost for the season during spring drills. UCLA has improved a
little, but not enough to easily cover up these holes. A slightly down year
seems to be in the cards.
Arizona
Poor Arizona. The Wildcats
snagged a big-name coach whose spread scheme perfectly fit the talent in the
program, including a fantastic dual-threat QB in Matt Scott. The defense, one
of the worst in the nation, can only improve in year two of Rich Rodriguez’s unorthodox
3-3-5. The offense, led by dynamic RB Ka’Deem Carey, could certainly pick up
right where it left off… if only Scott hadn’t graduated. Now, despite Carey’s
prodigious talent, the Cats have significant questions about how the offense
will function without its point man. Call me crazy, but I don’t see Carey repeating
his 1,900 yards in 2012 without Scott to balance the other half of the read option.
As for that D… well, it certainly
can’t get any worse. In fact, with all 11 starters back, it should be much
improved. Shaq Richardson is an excellent cover man at CB and combines with
Jonathan McKnight to form a solid starting duo, while the surprising Jared
Tevis should continue to provide much-needed recovery ability from his safety spot.
More production is needed up front, though, where UA gave up 4.6 yards a rush,
worst of the non-Colorado schools. Slowing down opposing ground games will not
only give the defense a breather, it will force QB’s to make some bad throws. ‘Zona
ranked dead last in the Pac-12( including Colorado!) with just 16 sacks on the year. Another
performance like that won’t do. The Wildcats have a seriously weak
nonconference sked, but draw five Pac-12 road games and must play Oregon from
the North. I don’t think another eight-win season is likely.
Utah
I don’t think Utah should be as
bad as my record prediction will indicate, but I had a tough time picking games
they should (or could) win. Playing both in-state rivals BYU and Utah State isn’t
going to help; both those teams are probably better than the Utes. The team
gets five conference home games, but two of those (Oregon State and Stanford)
are pretty much guaranteed losses, as are the two road trips to Oregon and USC.
It will be interesting to see what Utah does with highly-touted QB Travis
Wilson, who played well at times in emergency situations last year when Jordan
Wynn went down yet again with a serious injury. He does have a nice receiving
corps to work with, particularly WR Dres Anderson and TE Jake Murphy. However,
the most notable thing about this group might be that it’s unusually large –
almost every receiver stands 6’0” or taller.
Unfortunately, the Utes lose 3
starting linemen and workhorse RB John White IV, which means a rushing offense
that managed only 1,600 total yards last year will possibly be even worse in
2013. The defense won’t be able to pick up the slack very easily, either; three
starters are gone in the secondary and the line loses the brilliant Star
Lotulelei. Utah finished in the middle of the pack defensively last season,
which is probably where it's headed again. That won’t be enough to cover for an
offense that will experience some growing pains with young Wilson at the helm.
A bowl is a possibility, but that’s about this squad’s ceiling.
Colorado
Some people thought Wazzu’s run
of ineptitude in the last 2000’s could never be equaled. Sadly, Colorado is
making fools of us all. The Golden Buffaloes (I refuse to drop the “Golden”! It’s
so much cooler!) will likely be the league’s worst team again in 2013 after
finishing last in scoring offense and defense the past year. The good news is
that there are a lot of starters back. The bad news is that those guys aren’t
all that good. If the defense can stay healthy, which hasn’t happened since
Colorado joined the conference, it could be one of the more improved units in
the country. LB Jon Major is the only major loss on that side of the ball, and
the secondary (worst in the country in 2012) will be better. However, “improved”
in this instance means moving into the range of respectability rather than 124th.
It’s much the same situation on
offense, despite a pretty solid group of WR’s. Paul Richardson, whose spring
ACL tear last year robbed the Buffs of their only real weapon, is back. Along
with Nelson Spruce and Tyler McCulloch, Colorado will field a nice 1-2-3 punch
on the perimeter. However, there’s not a single proven QB on the roster to get
them the ball, nor does the anemic ground game inspire confidence in the way of
taking heat off the signal-caller. Even if the line is improved, which it
should be, CU has a long way to go to make defenses sweat. In the end, that’s
pretty much the story everywhere for this team: should be better, but not
enough to make a difference in the loss column. When WSU had to dig its program
out of depths, it first had to start losing games by 10 instead of 40. Colorado
has yet to reach that point, but a good sign of progress would be if the team
was doing that by the end of this season.
So that’s it for each team. As I
said before, after poring over each school’s schedule, I worked out my
predictions for the entire season, marking clear wins and losses to determine
best- and worst-case scenarios. Finally, I made my picks for each of the
questionable “swing” games to reach the records below. Here are the results of
my exhaustive analysis in order of how I believe the teams will finish.
North
Oregon: 10-2 – 12-0 (projected
12-0)
Oregon State: 7-5 – 12-0
(projected 10-2)
Stanford: 6-6 – 12-0 (projected
10-2)
Washington: 4-8 – 10-2 (projected
8-4)
Washington State: 2-10 – 7-5
(projected 4-8)
California: 1-11 – 4-8 (projected
2-10)
South
USC: 7-6 – 13-0 (projected 11-2)
Arizona State: 4-8 – 12-0
(projected 9-3)
UCLA: 5-7 – 11-1 (projected 6-6)
Arizona: 4-8 – 10-2 (projected
7-5)
Utah: 1-11 – 6-6 (projected 2-10)
Colorado: 1-11 – 4-8 (projected
2-10)
Pac-12 Championship game: Oregon over USC
And there you have it. Let the games begin!
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