And so it begins...

In the immortal words of Angus Young… I’ve been too long, I’m glad to be back. And not a moment too soon. The strange emotional dichotomy that is the end of summer and start of football season will raise its head again in a couple short weeks. While I mourn the loss of all things sweet and summery, the advent of a new year of football goodness tends to soften the blow.

Football’s return does seem to appropriately parallel the bittersweet feeling of the dying season, which, given the nature of the sport, is rather fitting. No other game walks such a precarious line between euphoria and heartbreak in each moment, where a matter of inches here or a few tenths of a second there can make or break a play, a game, a season (Notre Dame’s 2012 campaign attests to that). This season will no doubt feature teams scratching and clawing once again for a chance at the ultimate prize. As Young’s band AC/DC so memorably put it, “It’s a Long Way to the Top (Unless You’re Alabama)”.

Despite a relatively uneventful offseason there’s still much to recap. What’s happened/happening in college football in 2013? Well, there’s Alabama, gearing up for a threepeat (very likely); the Big East officially becoming irrelevant the American Athletic Conference (depressing); Oregon escaping the NCAA with naught but a cheeky smack on the bum (inevitable); Urban Meyer facing heat for his inability to stop Aaron Hernandez from murdering people (somewhat unfair), and potentially a mini-Renaissance in the ACC (about time). With the smoke clearing, only a short time remains until the 2013 season kicks off. We’ve got the same big questions as usual:

1) Who are the National title contenders? 

2) Who will win each conference?

3) Who will win the Heisman Trophy?

4) Which teams will surprise/disappoint?

All these questions and more will be answered in my ensuing posts, though I will refrain from listing top Heisman candidates until at least three weeks into September, when games have actually been played. A year ago Matt Barkley of USC was at the top of everyone’s preseason Heisman list, and had the award been given out in September West Virginia’s Geno Smith would have won in a landslide. Perhaps, not unlike the top 25, it’s better to see some on-field results before making wild predictions.

As I stated last year, it’s been proved that the true BCS Championship contenders hail from a rather small group. Factoring in talent, depth, strength of schedule and luck, between eight and 15 teams every year have a legitimate shot to wind up with the crystal football. My aim is not to predict a winner (because that’s usually ridiculous) but to predict which teams will fall into that special group this year. The following is my list.

Alabama

Need any more be said? Three of the last four (including the past two) titles, a threepeat looming on the horizon and the Saban Train rolls on. The Crimson Tide are overwhelmingly the most talented team in the country and they’re led by one of the best recruiters and coaches in the game. Bama is doing what USC did in the 2000’s, but they’re actually winning titles every year AND doing so in a thriving conference, unlike the down Pac-10 SC dominated. This program is on the verge of an historic run. The SEC is tough, sure, but the schedule this season is pretty tame. The problem with adding too many teams to a league is that you prevent your members from actually, you know, playing each other. Outside of a trip to College Station and a home date with LSU, Alabama will be heavily favored in every contest.

Quarterback A.J. McCarron has officially completed his metamorphosis from game manager to difference-maker, and while he’ll never be confused with some of college football’s historically great QB’s, he has a chance to own something they don’t: three rings. Remember my handwringing last year about the inexperience at the skill positions? All those guys stepped in and produced like veterans… and they’re all back. The line will probably take a minor step back with the loss of three All-Americans, but the players filling those holes are future stars themselves. Unlike several of their conference peers, the Tide also return most everyone on defense, as opposed to last season when they had to break in eight new starters. There are essentially no weaknesses on this team.

I don’t officially predict a BCS Champ, but the smart money is on the Tide.

Oregon

The Ducks’ position would have been stronger had Chip Kelly returned, but a very manageable schedule and a massive influx of young talent over the past two years keeps the team here. While there are still legitimate questions about whether UO’s attack can beat elite (read: SEC) defenses, Alabama’s loss to Texas A&M last season should serve as evidence enough that even great defenses can get flummoxed by the spread. The Pac-12 continues to improve, but Stanford is still the only conference foe capable of staying within a whiff of Oregon.

The biggest potential problem area for the Ducks is linebacker, where they graduated three of the schools’ all-time greats. Those losses, however, should be offset by exceptional depth (and talent) at the other two levels of the defense. The line has a fortuitous mix of experienced seniors and skilled underclassmen, while the secondary might be the best in the country. Offensively only three of the top six linemen return and RB Kenjon Barner is gone, but considering the team’s recent history with rushers it’s hard to imagine the next guy in (Byron Marshall) won’t be very productive as well.

Increased national exposure greatly boosted Oregon’s profile and recruiting during the Chip Kelly era. Nitpicking aside, this team can and should win a lot of games. The roster is honestly more talented than it was in 2010, when the Ducks played in the title game. That makes UO a contender.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes are an interesting case. On the one hand, their unblemished 2012 campaign was less-than-meets-the-eye: OSU beat a lot of truly awful teams in unquestionably the worst Big Ten in history… and still won five of eight league games by a touchdown or less. By my count (and I watched Ohio State quite a lot), OSU should have lost to: a terrible Cal team, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue and possibly Wisconsin and Michigan. The best win was the blowout of Nebraska, and we saw how much that was worth when the Cornhuskers gave up 115 points in their final two games.

But have you SEEN this schedule? Who is possibly going to beat this team? Who’s even going to challenge them? Assuming OSU is roughly as good as last season – reasonable despite a few key losses on defense – there’s simply nobody in the conference capable of matching the Buckeyes’ talent. Wisconsin and Penn State are at home, with the only slightly risky trips at Michigan and Northwestern. The non-league games, all in September, are against some serious patsies and will only serve as tune-ups. Even if you’re not totally sold on QB Braxton Miller (for the record, I’m not), you’ll be hard-pressed to find a contest on the schedule where OSU won’t be favored.

This ain’t your father’s Big Ten, not by a long shot. The fact is, OSU remains very good and very well coached. In this new-era, watered-down Big Ten, that will probably be enough to go undefeated. Whether that should earn a spot in the BCS Championship is a different question.

Georgia

I’m finally ready to view UGA as a true contender after a strong showing in the postseason last year. Aaron Murray is probably the best QB in the SEC, the ground game will be powered by a talented duo of sophomore backs and the entire O-line returns. That’s a recipe for a whole lot of success. In fact, this might end up as the best offense in the conference. Considering some fans were grumbling before last season that coach Mark Richt should be on the hot seat, that’s not too shabby.

There are questions on the other side of the ball. The Bulldogs lose their top four tacklers from 2013, including all-everything linebackers Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree AND both safeties. Normally, I’d say that was cause enough to downgrade UGA from “true contender” status. However, I’m going against my better instincts and predicting the newcomers will be adequate enough – if not quite as good – to keep this squad in contention. It’s a call that may come back to haunt me, but I think this squad has earned it.

I wouldn’t pick Georgia to beat Alabama, but I don’t have to make that big a leap to say this team will be very good. Fortunately, we’ll know quite early: UGA opens at Clemson and plays South Carolina in Week 2. Nasty.

Clemson

Speaking of… the Tigers lose playmakers Andre Ellington and DeAndre Hopkins, but otherwise return a great deal from their explosive offense. Returning nine of 10 contributing linemen should help QB Tajh Boyd quite a lot as the Heisman candidate prepares his NFL credentials. Boyd has become a complete player, which should negate some of the personnel losses, and hey, he’s still got the crazy-good Sammy Watkins at wideout.

More important, though, is the talent returning on defense. There’s some inexperience in the secondary, but more than a dozen contributing players return in the front seven, which should provide Clemson with some much-needed depth. The Tigers have rumbled through the ACC the past two seasons, but outside of the comeback win over LSU in their bowl last year have faceplanted in non-league play. With these defensive credentials, those days will hopefully be a thing of the past.

As for the schedule… getting Georgia at home in the opener is a huge coup… IF the Tigers can pull off the upset. Win that game and CU will be off and running toward a BCS appearance. FSU also has to travel to Death Valley, so if Clemson can finally stop embarrassing itself against rival South Carolina in the season finale, a special year could be in store.

Louisville

This is a bit of cop-out, in the sense that I don’t think Louisville is in any way on par with the aforementioned teams. However, as last year’s Sugar Bowl showed, they are pretty good, and much more notably, their schedule is a joke. The Cardinals don’t play a conference game until October, likely won’t face a single top-25 team and have an unusual three byes. I questioned whether anyone on Ohio State’s schedule could possibly beat the Buckeyes… I now repeat the question for Louisville, only 10 times louder. Rutgers? Cincinnati? I mean, come on. Three-quarters of the original Big East has flown the coop and no amount of puffed-up former mid-major popinjays raised to BCS status can save the conference.

Still, a team should not wholly be judged by its league (we sure didn’t when Miami (FL) was winning titles) and the fact remains that UL is decent. Better than decent, if you go by the thrashing they laid on Florida in the Sugar Bowl. QB Teddy Bridgewater is a program-changer on the level of Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck, even if his program wasn’t in as dire of straits as those players’ were. His offense’s losses were minor enough that I doubt the Cardinals will miss a beat, plus there’s those 10 returning starters on D that should push this team over the top.

Louisville is a quality team, to be sure – a BCS-level team playing in a decidedly non-BCS conference. It’s just frustrating that they could conceivably not face a ranked opponent until the BCS Championship.

That’s it for the teams I honestly think can win the title. Here’s the rest of the (slightly) more flawed contenders whose names will be bandied about in the media, but are unlikely to actually win the Big Game without help.

Stanford

Stanford’s gotten quite a bit of preseason love. The general theory is that the Cardinal, fresh off a Pac-12 Championship and Rose Bowl victory, can only improve with the superior Kevin Hogan at QB instead of the awful, departed Josh Nunes. It is true that the defense should once again be formidable, as only Chase Thomas and Terrence Brown graduate from 2012’s excellent unit. However, far too little is being made of the significant personnel losses on offense. Stepfan Taylor accounted for 322 of the 409 carries by Stanford’s so-called running back “committee” last year, which either indicates that Cardinal football is the least democratic organization in sports or that someone in Palo Alto doesn’t know what the word “committee” means.

That’s before we even get to the passing game. You know what hurts the development of a young QB like Hogan? Losing receivers who accounted for 80 percent of your receptions and 85 percent of your yards through the air. Oh, and all but a single TD catch. For two years the media beat into fans’ heads that Stanford’s tight ends were the best in the game. Well, now they’ve lost all three members of that talented trio Andrew Luck got to work with. How is the team going to seamlessly move on from that? It’s a fallacy that has yet to be addressed by any sports outlet. No matter how great the offensive line is (and it’s going to be a doozy), you need the skill players to match. This isn’t Oregon or USC, but there still need to be some guys who can make a defense pay. At the start of the 2013 season zero players on Stanford’s roster fit that description.

Because of the defense, Stanford will be in every game. But calling for them to defend their conference title or play for a BCS championship is wildly premature until the team proves it can consistently score on defenses as good as its own.

LSU

In LSU’s defense, the Tigers were middling offensively last season and still lost just three games by a total of 12 points. Les Miles, regardless of his questionable game-management skills, is playing the long game, folks. He may not have the rings like Nick Saban (ok, he’s got one, but he lucked into it with Saban’s players), but he’s built his team the same way: through the lines and defense. The list of highly-touted offensive recruits who have staggered through uninspiring Tiger careers continues to grow, yet LSU keeps winning, to the tune of 10 games a year since Miles took over. That’s directly attributable to the consistent culture of the program. LSU will run the ball. LSU will play brutal defense. Sometimes, LSU will pass a little bit. Rinse, repeat. It’s a grueling, aggravating style that nevertheless creates wins.

The Tigers lose a couple of their talented backs this season, but should keep on rolling in the ground game thanks to very good players up front and a commitment to sharing the load that last year produced more than 2000 yards and 20 TD’s from a combination of five different backs (THIS is what a “committee” looks like, Stanford). QB Zach Mettenberger, like seemingly every LSU signal-caller, was underwhelming in 2012, but I think this may finally be the year the Tigers kick their passing game into gear. Every significant contributing receiver returns, which should really make this offense imposing for the first time in years.

So why isn’t LSU a title contender, if they’re adding a good offense to an elite D? Well, about that defense… here are some of the guys lost from last year: Bennie Logan. Sam Montgomery. Barkevious Mingo. Eric Reid. Kevin Minter. Those aren’t merely household names in Baton Rouge, those are national household names. Unless LSU repeats what Alabama did last season, the defense has to take a step back.

Texas A&M

Hoo boy. I’ll restrict my comments on the Aggies to strictly on-field material until later. Safe to say, I could talk about aTm for a while. Florida, Georgia and South Carolina are conspicuously absent from the schedule, which is a major boost, as are the four home non-league games against patsies. Based on that alone, A&M should get to seven or eight wins. However, there are some significant questions about this team as well. How will the defense – already one of the weaker SEC units, giving up nearly 400 yards a game – fare after losing four of its top six tacklers? What about the offensive line losing the NFL’s second overall pick, left tackle Luke Joeckel? What if the Aggies’ surprising success last year was partially due to SEC teams being unfamiliar with them?

A&M also lost four of its top six receivers, including the most reliable option in Ryan Swope. Those kind of losses are tough for a young QB. As with Stanford, it’s really nice when an inexperienced QB can come in and take control of an offense that already has successful moving parts, but it’s a different story when the veteran weapons leave and the QB has to be the ultimate playmaker. Johnny Manziel certainly made a lot of plays last season, but outside of a great first quarter against Alabama he didn’t do them against any particularly strong defenses. LSU and Florida both shut down the Aggies’ attack. Plus, SEC coaches now have a whole year of film to break down to stop this spread.

None of this is to say that aTm can’t be a quality team in 2013. They’re certainly the biggest mystery on this list, though. I see more than a few parallels with this squad to last year’s USC team, another offensive juggernaut with an average defense who nobody thought could be stopped. Never, ever assume that an offense can just outscore everyone. Not a single BCS title has been won that way.

FSU

Florida State’s revival under Jimbo Fisher should continue into 2013. The Seminoles have gone 31-10 in three years under Fisher after four underwhelming years to end the Bobby Bowden era, culminating in last season’s ACC championship and Orange Bowl win. While they do lose QB E.J. Manuel, who finally realized his potential in 2012, the rest of the offense returns pretty much intact. The line gets four starters back, while all but three of the backs and receivers return. The secondary should also be one of the best in the nation. The schedule is typically ACC-soft: only visits to Clemson and rival Florida should pose too much of a threat.

However, the front seven, and particularly the front line, were ravaged by graduation and the draft. Measuring up to that legacy is far too much to ask, even for the talented young players FSU has. Fortunately, the schedule won’t demand that they do so all the time, but merely being adequate isn’t good enough if this team has BCS aspirations. The Seminoles will need to defend consistently and score consistently. Even with the talent returning offensively, a first-year (likely freshman) QB is a red flag.

FSU should be good again, but I don’t foresee another ACC title. Clemson is too good and even a slight rebuilding year will be enough to allow the Tigers to take the conference back… at least for a season.

Texas

Now, UT is an interesting case. I’ve been calling for Texas to win the Big 12 in 2013 for about a year and a half. I’m not about to change my prediction now. This has clearly been the season the program was building toward ever since hitting “rock bottom” in 2010 with a 5-7 record in the first year A.C. (After Colt McCoy). By the way, when 5-7 is rock bottom, you know your team has high expectations. Still, three years is a very long time for an elite program to rebuild, which sort of underscores the point I’m about to make: Texas is not currently an elite program. The Longhorns remain an elite program in theory, with the best recruiting base and as the America’s most popular college team. With a merely average coach and consistent underachievement on the field, though, it’s hard to make the case for UT being elite right now.

With that said, this might be the year this all changes and the Longhorns return to the uppermost tier of college football. Yes, the defense loses stars Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor, and the offense will undoubtedly miss the outrageously fast Marquise Goodwin. However, when you talk about returning firepower, Texas is among the nation’s most impressive teams. 10 offensive starters are back, including the entire offensive line. Other than Vaccaro and Okafor, the whole starting D returns, along with every important backup. This is a team built to win now and they’ve got the schedule to do it. Dicey non-league games against Ole Miss and at BYU are offset by a strangely cushy Big 12 sked, as three of UT’s five road conference games take place in the state of Texas (at TCU, at Baylor and the neutral site Oklahoma game in Dallas). Oklahoma State, who may end up as the Longhorns’ biggest threat, has to come to Austin.

However, I’ve still got reservations about this team, as seen by their inclusion on this list. David Ash and Case McCoy (Colt’s little bro!) make up a decent 1-2 punch at the QB position, but neither has set the world on fire the past couple of years (to put it lightly). The starter (Ash?) will need to be a difference-maker, not just a game manager. Texas will also be dealing with the favorite role after getting to play under the radar since 2010. Ultimately, despite their talent, I see the Longhorns dropping a game or two.

Florida

The Gators were one meltdown against Georgia from playing in the SEC Championship, yet it’s hard to feel optimistic about a team that last season couldn’t top 2,000 total yards passing and outgained its opponents by an average of less than 50 yards per game. How did Florida win 11 games? Well, they shouldn’t have. Despite a superb defense, the Gators were outgained in yards, first downs or both in half their contests. They benefitted from a sizable positive turnover margin, including a high number of what I deem “critical turnovers” by their opponents. Critical turnovers can be defined as turnovers deep in a team’s own territory, or in crucial situations like goal-to-go downs or – perhaps worst of all – on special teams. More on critical turnovers and mistakes in a future post.

Pundits seem to believe the exceedingly mediocre Jeff Driskel will dramatically improve on his 2012 numbers with a solid outing at QB this fall. Ok, I’ll play along. Let’s say Driskel does in fact get a lot better with another year in the offense. Who’s he going to turn to to make plays? This is Florida, so athletic ability is always in stock, but a whole lot of receivers just left Gainesville. Four of the top six, in fact, including Jordan Reed and his team-leading 45 catches and 559 yards. So perhaps Driskel will lean on the running game? Oh wait, RB Mike Gillislee is gone too, so the team’s leading returning rusher is, in fact, Driskel himself with a mighty 413 yards.

Well, at least the Gators have their great defense to fall back on, right? …I’ve got some bad news on that front, too. UF lost a ton of playmakers on that side of the ball: five of the top six tacklers, plus oft-injured star LB Jelani Jenkins. There’s no way this D will be as good in 2013. Toss in games against South Carolina, Georgia, LSU and rival FSU, and the writing on the wall becomes rather clear.

South Carolina

I’m much more optimistic about South Carolina than Florida, but there are still a few issues that will prevent the Gamecocks from reaching upper-elite status. Connor Shaw is more consistent and simply better than Driskel, if perhaps not quite the same athlete. Though Shaw’s numbers (and injury history) don’t awe, he’s more than good enough to win a championship at this level. Additionally, playing without RB Marcus Lattimore for significant chunks of the past two seasons should have softened the blow of losing him to the NFL. Enough of the receiving core also returns to ensure the passing game will be a threat and just one starting lineman from 2012 is gone.

Like LSU and Florida, though, there are questions about the defense. DE Jadeveon Clowney is fantastic, yes, but what about the losses in the back seven? S D.J. Swearinger is gone, along with talented LB’s Shaq Wilson, Reginald Bowens and DeVonte Holloman. There are only five returning defensive starters; that’s a lot of production to make up. Now, the schedule does favor the Gamecocks. If they can get by Georgia (in Athens) in week two, look out: the remaining road trips are cakewalks and Carolina gets its last four opponents at home. However, I don’t see this team beating UGA. Not only is the game on the road, the Bulldogs will be out for blood after last season’s 35-7 pasting (not to mention that Georgia’s seniors have never tasted victory against SC).

South Carolina should be very good, but Georgia is better and Alabama is certainly better. Even with a couple of gimmes, the SEC is rough. While this team may match 2012’s 11-win total, I think they’ll fall short of the ultimate BCS prize.

So there’s the group of teams that will play for, and win, the national championship. Who will it be? I say Alabama, but I’ve been wrong before. Once. Tomorrow’s post will include my predictions for each conference.