Thursday, September 13, 2012

Wherein I lament the lack of any good games


Well, well, well. Look who finally came crawling to the big-boy table. Wednesday’s announcement that Notre Dame would partially join the ACC was, without question, the biggest news of the week. The Fighting Irish will now play five games per year in the ACC with seven independent, but that plan is fooling nobody. Eventually, ND will be a full member.

The news was a huge blow to the Big East, which undoubtedly hoped to retain Notre Dame as a flagship university in football (the Irish currently play all other sports there) to resuscitate its on-lifeline long-term prospects. After the ACC’s grab last season for Pittsburgh and Syracuse, I assumed this would happen – my blog from that week is now eerily prescient – so it can’t have taken the conference completely by surprise. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t devastating. I can’t see any scenario now where the Big East can survive longer than the first few years of the playoff. What school serious about competing for a championship would want to play there?

In other news, there was almost no news. For the first time in 32 weeks there was a total of zero ranked-versus-ranked matchups, a barren slate even less appetizing than week one’s meager fare. The idea of a playoff is wonderful, but if schedules like this are the result... I'm not sure it will be worth it. Everyone assumed a postseason selection committee would force teams to give up games against cupcakes, but what if it has the opposite effect? The early-season returns this year have been pitiful. Very few schools have taken the initiative to schedule real opponents in non-conference play. I hope this isn't where the sport is headed.

To be honest, this week’s schedule doesn’t impress much either. Alabama plays at Arkansas, but given what just happened to the Razorbacks (Huzzah for Louisiana-Monroe!) I don’t have much hope for that one. There is the intriguing Florida-Tennessee matchup, but that rivalry is a lot more fun when both teams are near the top of the polls rather than the bottom. USC also plays at Stanford – I’d be surprised if the Cardinal made a game of it – and, in the most important game of the weekend, Notre Dame goes to Michigan State.

Why is this game so important? For one, Notre Dame could threaten for a BCS berth this year. While the Irish didn’t look the part last week against Purdue, they still boast an undefeated record and their once-daunting schedule might not turn out to be quite as brutal as it initially appeared. If they can get by the Spartans – a perennial thorn in their side – it will go a long way toward locking up a lucrative bowl bid. Michigan State, on the other hand, is the Big 10’s lone unbeaten squad after just two weeks. Any title hopes the conference had now rest on the Spartans. No pressure.

The only truly noteworthy result from last week was the performance of the Pac-12 and Big 10 on the national stage. In three visits out west, the League of Legends and Leaders went a crushing 0-3, watching ranked powerhouses Wisconsin and Nebraska go down along with Illinois at Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona State, respectively. It was a stunning and embarrassing finish for the storied conference, yet where the Big 10 saw infamy, the Pac-12 flourished. Bouncing back from ugly losses by its newcomers Colorado (FCS-level Sacramento State) and Utah (Utah State), the Conference of Champions dropped all three of its Rose Bowl bedfellows and then finished the night off with Arizona’s second-half evisceration of Oklahoma State. Needless to say, it was the Pac-12’s best Saturday in a long time.

Top 25

Many ranked teams have still failed to face any sort of reasonable challenge, which makes picking a top 25 extremely difficult. Going against my instincts, though, I’m going to release a (very) tentative list this week, with the caveat that it may change dramatically as soon as my next post. As such, I’ll only give a short description of my thoughts.

1) Alabama

Have shown enough through two weeks to be the undisputed number one.

2) LSU

Runner-up last year, runner-up this year? Possibly.

3) USC

Unimpressive against Syracuse, but fewer question marks than Oregon.

4) Oregon

Explosiveness is undeniable but injuries are now a big concern.

5) Oklahoma

Looked better against Florida A&M… but who wouldn’t?

6) Florida State

Game against Savannah State called early. Still haven’t learned anything about this team.

7) West Virginia

Idle in week two, but I’ll ride the buzz from their opening win a little longer.

8) Georgia

Closed nicely in Columbia, but Mizzou isn’t top-25 material.

9) Michigan State

Spartans have one of the few good wins to date, even if they were lucky not to fumble it away.

10) Ohio State

So far looking like the class of the Leaders division, though ineligible for postseason.

11) Clemson

Have looked powerful thus far, even without WR Sammy Watkins.

12) South Carolina

Close win in opener said a lot more than blowout over patsy. Vandy is better than ECU.

13) Kansas State

Might be really, really good, but we don’t know how bad Miami (FL) is yet.

14) TCU

With only one game, hard to judge. Horned Frogs’ reputation carries enough weight for a ranking, though.

15) Texas

I’m not blown away by what I’ve seen, but this week’s game at Ole Miss might clear things up.

16) Virginia Tech

I’m very confident these guys are frauds. Any struggles with Pitt and we’ll know.

17) Michigan

Wolverines lucky to not be 0-2, but I doubt they’d lose to anybody below them.

18) Notre Dame

Fantastic against Navy, so-so against Purdue. MSU game is absolutely huge.

19) Louisville

If the Cards don’t put on a show against North Carolina, the Big East is in trouble.

20) Stanford

A much better performance than the opener, though I’m still not convinced.

21) UCLA

This feels like a bit of an overreaction… but I’m intrigued to see what these Bruins can do.

22) Arizona

Once again, could be premature, but they were just so good against Okie State.

23) Nebraska

To be honest, they’ve looked better than Michigan. But Alabama > UCLA, so tough luck.

24) Boise State

Opening loss shouldn’t really count against them; Broncos will roll through Mountain West.

25) Florida/Tennessee

The winner this weekend will be deserving of a spot in the rankings.

Pac-12 Thoughts

From Friday evening through Saturday afternoon, the Pac-12 couldn’t have fared much worse. On Friday night QB Jordan Wynn went down against Utah State and took Utah’s season with him. Cal and Wazzu looked average against FCS teams, Colorado actually lost to Sac State and both Oregon and USC wrapped up unimpressive victories. It appeared to be a very disappointing weekend. Then the Oregon State-Wisconsin game went final and everything went crazy. UCLA took down Nebraska in dramatic fashion. ASU hammered visiting Illinois. Arizona dropped 59 on Oklahoma State. As I said before, it was pretty stunning. It was also a major boost to a conference that desperately needed one.

Despite Stanford’s success over the past few seasons, the Pac-12 has mainly had a lone banner-carrier since 2008. Oregon dominated the league, going 25-2 in three seasons. While the Rose Bowl win last year was nice, it didn’t provide the total validation the conference needed in the absence of major non-conference wins (UO over Tennessee in 2010 doesn’t count). Last Saturday changed all that: the Big 10 can say nothing to the Pac-12 for at least one year, national respect shot through the roof and the polls reflect it.

Of course, playing at this level for the rest of season would also be helpful, starting with Cal at Ohio State this weekend (not a chance). But regardless of the outcome of that game, the damage has been done. This was particularly crucial because of how vulnerable USC and Oregon looked this week.

The Ducks’ injury concerns have now reached critical, with senior stars Carson York and John Boyett for the season and Josh Huff sidelined again. On top of that, UO has played terribly inconsistent so far in 2012, outscoring opponents 85-6 early before getting beat 53-14. USC wasn’t great against Syracuse at the Meadowlands, either, holding just a five-point lead in the fourth quarter and sinking to even more ludicrous depths to pad Matt Barkley’s stats (187 yards, six touchdowns? Please). While I would still pick them both to represent their divisions in the conference championship, they could both actually lose a game.

That’s because both divisions suddenly look to have challengers who can truly, well, challenge the Ducks and Trojans. OSU might have thrown off two years of frustration with that win over the Badgers. Stanford looked much better in game two of the post-Luck era. Arizona can apparently score with anybody. Even UCLA, who can generally be relied on to faceplant, scored a big upset. Could the Bruins actually pose a threat to the league's elite? Look out. The Pac-12 just got very interesting.

Random Thoughts and Observations

A lot was made this week of the alleged “evils” of both Oklahoma State and Florida State scheduling hapless FCS foe Savannah State early in the season. Savannah State has just four wins over other FCS teams in the past seven seasons, so the media focus was on how unethical it was for these FBS powerhouses to pay a inferior foe to show up and get annihilated. My reaction was, “Who cares?” Savannah State wanted the money. They scheduled the games, they weren’t forced into it. If that’s how the program wants to make money, they have every right to do so. OSU and FSU shouldn’t be ashamed for doing the same thing as most FBS teams in the country.

In the ridiculous news of the week, I present: pass-happy offenses! Arkansas’ home loss to Louisiana-Monroe was stunning, but the forgotten statistic in the upset was QB Kolton Browning’s 67 pass attempts (he completed 42) that carved up the Arkansas defense. Of course, that was nothing compared to the Houston Cougars, who let new QB David Piland toss the rock an astounding 77 times in their loss to Louisiana Tech. Piland completed 53 attempts for 580 yards. Good god. The NCAA record is 83, by Drew Brees in 1998.

If the Heisman were given out after week one, I opined, it would have gone to West Virginia QB Geno Smith. After week two, it would probably go to UCLA RB Jonathan Franklin, who leads the nation in rushing and has an upset of a ranked team to his name. Obviously this will change as the season progresses, but for now Franklin has been the best player in the country. 

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