Fall begins, Notre Dame... wins?

I admit, I really didn’t see Kansas State coming. After watching them win games last year on effort alone, I assumed their talent-deficit roster would once again doom the Wildcats to failure against their more talented Big 12 brethren. Through September, in fact, there’s not actually been any evidence to the contrary. What K-State did Saturday was a shock to the system. A Stoops-coached OU team, losing at home to ranked team? Unheard of. It’s enough that I, like the voters, had to reward the Wildcats for a job well done.

The flip side of this, of course, was that Oklahoma got exposed. This is particularly stinging given how much I believed in the Sooners. But the most obvious problem revealed in Norman wasn’t that OU is a bunch of frauds; that team has the talent to play with anyone. The problem was QB Landry Jones, who has mysteriously regressed since last season. It’s true that losing top target Ryan Broyles to injury was a setback to Jones, but logically he should have adjusted during the long offseason. That hasn’t been the case.

So does that now make West Virginia the favorites in the Big 12? After this week’s game against Maryland, I can’t see it. Geno Smith looked Heisman-worthy, but the overall team performance was poor. The Mountaineers escaped by 10 against a highly inferior opponent at home. I guess that puts KSU at the top of the list, but because of their lack of playmakers I can’t see them going undefeated. For now they get the nod in the polls, though.

By the way, I continue to be impressed with the pollsters. I don’t know if this is the year the voters finally decided to start doing their jobs or if this is a sign of the apocalypse, but once again the results just seem to make too much sense. For the most part, that is. There are still the ridiculous bits here and there, like Nebraska being ranked and UCLA unranked when they have the same record and the Bruins won head-to-head. By and large, though, it’s logical. LSU played a bad game against Auburn and was passed by Oregon and nearly passed by FSU. This makes sense. This is what should be happening.

Both the Seminoles and Ducks passed early-season tests Saturday night, though they came in different situations. Oregon faced a simple skill test: could the sometimes-maligned defense contain Arizona’s explosive attack? The answer was a decided “Yes.” There remain questions about the Ducks’ curious inability to run the ball, but the defense was the story of the game.

Florida State, on the other hand, had a much more difficult question to answer: how tough mentally was the team? As they always seem to do, the ‘Noles got down early against an opponent they should have been able to beat. But where past FSU squads would have quailed at the pressure, this one stepped up and fought back. Down 14 in the third quarter, they went on a 35-3 run that was as masterful a defensive effort as it was an offensive one.

And, because it apparently wouldn’t be a regular week without some Big Ten-bashing, here are the latest woeful results from the proud Legends and Leaders: Wisconsin struggled once again, beating UTEP 37-26; Iowa lost to Central Michigan; Ohio State had to put away UAB late; Michigan State trailed at the half before beating Eastern Michigan; Michigan fell to Notre Dame, and Illinois was blown out by Louisiana Tech. Minnesota and Northwestern are both 4-0. During the middle of the day I realized that, without a doubt, this is the worst Big Ten ever. It truly is the apocalypse.

Looking ahead, it’s another lean week, unless you really think Baylor is a top 25 team and can hang with West Virginia. Ohio State plays Michigan State, which was one of the worst games of last year. We’ll see how bad Wisconsin really is when the Badgers play at Nebraska. Louisiana Tech, 3-0 and averaging 54 points a game, plays at Virginia and will likely beat the Cavaliers. Missouri, fresh off their inaugural SEC spankings, faces a game Central Florida team that may very well beat them. None of the contenders should be challenged. The best contest of the day might be one of the last: newly ranked Oregon State travels to Tucson in a late-night battle against the still-smarting Wildcats. That’s about it.

Top 25

1) Alabama

The Crimson Tide finally ceded some points this week. Oh well. Between their monstrous ground-and-pound attack and their insane 5.3 points allowed per game, I’m ready to proclaim this team number one by a wide margin. The next three opponents are Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee. They might not give up another point until November.

2) Oregon

You just don’t do what the Ducks’ defense did against Arizona: six red-zone possessions, no points? Even mighty ‘Bama would have trouble matching that. The offense is clearly a work in progress, but Oregon fans had to be very relieved by what the “other” side of the team delivered Saturday. Shutouts against conference foes are rare and impressive.

3) Florida State

Based on this week’s results, FSU has to be this high. In the second half, the Seminoles thoroughly beat a team who, by the way, just beat Auburn by more than LSU did. After giving up 37 points, the previously stout defense has to be a little embarrassed. USF is a good team to practice on this week.

4) LSU

The Tigers just never got going against Auburn. It’s early, but you have to be concerned with the way the passing game still hasn’t improved. I guess now we know why Zach Mettenberger didn’t beat out Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee, eh? The defense is top-notch, but you shouldn’t be in danger of losing to a team that barely puts up double digits.

5) Kansas State

I remain skeptical of this team’s long-term title hopes; it just seems cruel to expect too much out of a group that, relatively speaking, has so little to work with. I don’t think there’s much question at this point who the toughest team in the country is. I rank KSU ahead of UGA and Carolina because the Wildcats have actually played, you know, anyone.

6) Georgia

Buffalo, Mizzou, FAU and Vandy, and we’re supposed to be sold that this is a top-five team? Next up is rival Tennessee, which won’t say much either – unless the Bulldogs lose, in which case it’ll say a whole lot. UGA does get South Carolina after that, so we’ll finally get a real test for those two.

7) South Carolina

With a resume similar to Georgia’s and another easy win on the way (Kentucky? Really? Did the SEC plan this? Actually, probably yes), there’s not a lot to say about the Gamecocks. They expectedly thrashed Missouri in the Wildcats’ first conference road game. Connor Shaw rebounded nicely to go an eye-popping 20-21 last game, though his health remains a factor.

8) Stanford

The Cardinal had Saturday off to prepare for their Thursday game at Washington (as if they needed it). This is the first road game of the year, but I doubt it will matter. UW has been massively outclassed in the last two contests. Things to improve for this week: more efficiency in the passing game, less making Matt Barkley sad.

9) Notre Dame

To be completely honest, Michigan and MSU probably aren’t that good. Nevertheless, it’s hard to not get excited about this team. The painful years of getting trashed on the field and by the media (and folks like me!) are being exorcized seemingly every down by this resilient, hard-working bunch.

10) West Virginia

Hmmm. Things I was impressed with: Geno Smith and Tayvon Austin. Things I was not impressed with: everything else. Maryland is way too average to let hang around for four quarters. I’m pretty sure someone in the Big 12 can beat this team. They’ll need the right combination of offense and defense, but it’ll happen.

11) USC

How underwhelming can a 27-9 victory be? When it comes against Cal, very. SC led early and held a huge yardage advantage. By all rights, it should have been over by halftime, yet Cal actually had the ball in the red zone trailing by only eight late in the third quarter. A lot of things still need to get cleaned up.

12) Clemson

For about 34 minutes, everything was going the Tigers’ way. They had Florida State right where they wanted them, having sprung multiple explosion plays that shocked the Seminole defense. Then came the avalanche. It’s unfortunate these teams play in the same division, because a title game rematch would be sweet.

13) Texas

The Longhorns should be able to contain Oklahoma State’s passing attack without too much trouble. Getting an extra week to prepare can only have helped the stingy Texas D. The offense still has questions marks and must prove things on a week-to-week basis; UT hasn’t put together a great scoring performance against a good team in two years.

14) Florida

Shutting out Kentucky does nothing for me. However, the Gators are off this week before hosting LSU. With the way the Tigers just played I might actually take UF in that game. A lot depends on Jeff Driskel – has he really improved as a quarterback, or was it just the result of bad competition. LSU tends to live off bad quarterbacking.

15) Ohio State

Another week, another shaky performance by the Buckeyes. Aside from one outburst keyed by turnovers, OSU showed nothing against (another) vastly inferior opponent. This team could very well go undefeated in the watered-down Big Ten, but it’s a good thing they’re ineligible, because they’d get hammered in a BCS game.

16) TCU

Somewhat sluggish effort by the Horned Frogs. I’d like to see this team put a whole game together for once. If they can, there’s no reason why they couldn’t win the conference. The defense-first approach is certainly more sustainable than WVU’s all-passing philosophy.

17) Oklahoma

Thanks for repaying all my loyalty, Sooners. I’m not sure why a team with OU’s riches can’t figure it out, but they’ve only got one more week to do it. Next week is Texas. The Longhorns have the defensive personnel to make life miserable for a sputtering offense. Oklahoma has the offensive talent to make them pay for trying. They just have to show up.

18) Oregon State

Who would have thought? The Beavers are essentially 3-0 (I’m counting Nicholls State early) with a pair of wins over teams that were ranked at the time. Before the season nobody would have penciled in Wisconsin and UCLA as victories. Now the tough part begins: playing as the favorite (in front of the raucous ‘Zona Zoo, no less).

19) Louisville

Well… that was uninspiring. A week after nearly giving a game away to UNC, the Cardinals only beat FIU by a touchdown. Because of the Big East’s goofy schedule they have another week to hash things out, but this can’t continue. The league badly needs this team to stay undefeated.

20) Michigan State

To be honest, this might be too high. We pretty much know what we have for the season with MSU: a good defense and Le’Veon Bell. The glacial pace of the offense didn’t end up hurting the team against EMU, but it will at some point. There’s just not enough on offense to expect this team to contend.

21) Boise State

As eye-gougers go, last Friday’s BYU-Boise game was fairly entertaining. It makes for great TV when a defensive tackle’s interception wins the game. It’s less humorous for a coach when he scores your team’s only points. BSU might not make it through the Mountain West unscathed.

22) Oklahoma State

Big test this week against Texas, but regardless of the outcome OSU figures to be ranked in the coming weeks anyway: the following two games are Kansas and Iowa State. The important thing is deciding what exactly this team wants to be, a shootout-minded group or one that plays defense.

23) UCLA

UCLA should probably fall out of the rankings for at least a week, but I still want to rank Nebraska so the Bruins stay. Despite the frustrating loss to Oregon State when the team clearly thought it had turned a corner, there’s a lot to be happy about. I still think I’d rather be a UCLA fan than a USC fan right now.

24) Nebraska

By all rights, Nebraska should be the favorite in the Big Ten at this point. Now they need to prove it by beating Wisconsin this week. The division road isn’t easy with Michigan State and Michigan on the horizon, but this is the year to do it. Winning the conference opener at home is a crucial piece of the puzzle.

25) Michigan

Hanging on. Just barely. I don’t think any of the other fringe candidates (Rutgers, Mississippi State) could handle the Wolverines. After turning the ball over six times against Notre Dame, Michigan only has itself to blame. The good news is that conference play is now starting in the soft Big Ten.

Pac-12 Thoughts

While much of the focus is on Oregon (rightfully so) for their 49-0 pasting of Arizona, the bigger story this week is Oregon State. I always assumed the Ducks would win, I just didn’t know how many points they would allow. The Beavers are a different story. The underdog in both their games so far, they’ve come out swinging in a way unseen in the Mike Riley era.

Even when OSU had good seasons in the past, it was a combination of great late-season play and pointed improvement from the beginning of the year that led to their success. Now Oregon State has opened the year with great defense and (largely) mistake-free offense, trademarks of the halcyon Riley seasons but noticeably absent of late. The Beavers have never (2000 notwithstanding) really put together a full year of great performances; they generally turn it on after September and go from there. What can they do if they play 12 games like this?

To be the voice of reason, I must note that UCLA is good but not elite and Wisconsin is undoubtedly bad. OSU still lacks the talent to beat Oregon and Stanford and a lot can happen injury-wise the rest of the way. However, the Beavers have lost to even average teams in the past in early-season flops, so just getting to 2-0 (really, 3-0) is so important. Before the year I thought 6-6 was probably the ceiling for this team. Now, who knows?

As impressive as Oregon’s defense was in blanking ‘Zona, there were a ton of questions raised about the offense. The 3-3-5 seemed to completely stymie the Ducks’ line. This can’t keep happening if the team wants to be a serious BCS title contender. Everything UO does is predicated through their strong running game; without it, there’s no play-action or uncertainty for the defense. Everything depends on the line, which has frankly been substandard to this point.

It’s worth noting that Cal ran a 3-3-5 two years ago in Berkeley the night they nearly upset the undefeated Ducks, 15-13. No other team in the Pac-12 runs this style of defense, but after seeing this game they might try it. We know teams have been searching for how to stop this offense for three years to no avail.

USC wasn’t great against Cal on Saturday, but there’s not a lot more to say about that game. Cal is a mess and the Trojans should be better than they’re playing. A more surprising finish was Colorado’s comeback against Wazzu. Neither of those teams is any good, though, so it won’t really have an impact on the league.

The most surprising result in the conference was actually the other late game, ASU versus Utah. The Utes were coming off an excellent performance against a ranked BYU team and figured to lock down the Sun Devils defensively. Instead, they got their doors blown off. Where was that Arizona State team against Missouri? For whatever reason, ASU plays much better at home. The problem? The next game is on the road. Granted, it’s Cal, but this is exactly the kind of game the Devils have dropped in the past.

This weekend we have both potential blowouts and good games. The heavyweights, Oregon and Stanford, should handle the Washington schools fairly easily. UCLA, coming off a frustrating defeat, should likewise have no trouble with Colorado. But ASU-Cal and OSU-Arizona are hard to pick. Both visitors should be confident, maybe overconfident, after this week. Both home teams will be angry. Should make for some great TV.

Heisman Watch

The frontrunner remains Geno Smith, who has put together the best numbers to date. Jonathan Franklin’s hopes took a major hit when Oregon State shut him down last week; he’ll need to put up huge stats and keep winning to have a shot. De’Anthony Thomas dropped a little because he failed to score against Arizona, but there’s a larger margin of error for him than there is for Franklin. Braxton Miller might actually be second at this point, because imagining Ohio State without him is scary.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In case you missed it, the Miami (FL) - Georgia Tech game was insane. I've never seen a football game flip momentum so drastically so many times. The 'Canes dropped 19 in the first quarter and looked headed for a blowout. Then Tech scored 36 straight over the next quarter and a half. Miami, not to be denied, scored the final 17 of regulation, tying the game with 27 seconds left. Then they stuffed the Yellow Jackets on fourth and one and scored in two plays to win in overtime. I have no idea how this happened.

The only tidbit from this week I found very interesting was the news that Taylor Heinicke of Old Dominion broke the Division I passing record with 730 yards against New Hampshire. Heinicke surpassed the 22-year-old record set by the legendary David Klingler of Houston, whose 716 yards against ASU in 1990 remain the FBS record. That is absolutely ridiculous.