National
Overview
Another contender goes down. I can’t say I’m shocked
Ole Miss lost – the Rebels have looked ripe for an upset ever since that opener
against Boise State. You can point to the Alabama win all you want, but history
proves victories like that over the Crimson Tide are far more reliant on luck
than skill. Bo Wallace, a remarkably average quarterback, was stellar against ‘Bama,
throwing for three touchdowns and no picks. His performance eerily echoed that
of South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia in 2010, when the Gamecocks’ QB completed 19
of 20 passes in an upset of the defending champs.
Saturday, we got the real Wallace – mediocre throughout
the night at Death Valley, then blowing the game with a gross duck into
double coverage. The Rebels’ defense is still dominant, but Ole Miss had no
business winning that game. LSU turned the ball over four times and won 10-7.
If the Rebs were really a top-five squad those turnovers would have led to an
easy victory. However, the team will get a shot at redemption this week against
Auburn, so let’s not bury Ole Miss just yet.
Mississippi State also got a scare, although getting
pushed by Kentucky is a lot worse than falling in a dogfight (or catfight) to
LSU. MSU remains No. 1, but the defensive flaws have become glaringly obvious.
The Bulldogs are going to lose a game, almost certainly at Alabama in a couple
of weeks. This may be our 2014 Cinderella, but I doubt MSU will enjoy the same
kind of charmed existence last year’s Auburn team did. It’s really just a
matter of time.
In a less-watched but highly-significant
development, West Virginia won at Oklahoma State, knocking the Cowboys out of
Big 12 contention and moving the surprising Mountaineers to 6-2, 4-1 in league
play. WVU’s rise is critical because it boosts Alabama’s non-conference resume
AND gives the Big 12 another legitimate power. The ‘Eers still have to play Kansas
State and TCU and could win the conference – or fall by the wayside, giving the
Horned Frogs or Wildcats another quality win.
USC was eliminated from the playoff hunt with a
close loss at Utah, a result that means the Utes still control their destiny.
With one loss, it’s conceivable Utah could make the field, but running the table
the rest of the way is a tall order. Not only do the Utes still have to play
fellow South leaders Arizona and ASU, they also get Oregon AND Stanford in the
regular season before facing one of them in the Pac-12 title game (were they to
advance). I don’t see that happening.
Next week: Florida State is at Louisville, which is
somehow ranked, on Thursday. Don’t get your hopes up there. TCU is at West Virginia
in a huge Big 12 elimination game, Stanford is at Oregon and Ole Miss plays at
Auburn in a de facto national quarterfinal. Late, Arizona get a shot to finally
knock out UCLA in Pasadena and ASU tries to match its rival at home against
Utah. Another good slate all around.
Playoff
Poll
I don’t know that much really changed this week. Yes,
Ole Miss lost, but because of the nature of the SEC West the Rebels will have
their opportunity to climb back into the playoff. It’s unlikely more than one
team from the same conference will qualify unless there’s some real chaos. And
there just might be, but it hasn’t happened yet.
College Football Playoff
1) Mississippi State vs. 4) TCU
2) Florida State vs. 3) Oregon
The top two are easy. Oregon is currently most
deserving one-loss team, as I stated last week. The No. 4 spot came down to a
very tight decision between the Horned Frogs and the leading schools in the second
tier, but I went with TCU because of how good the team looks right now. It took
a collapse to lose to Baylor and TCU should be undefeated.
Second Tier
Michigan State
Ole Miss
Alabama
Auburn
The glut of SEC teams is intriguing, but the fact
that they only have one quality win between them (Auburn at Kansas State, a game
the Tigers should have lost) hurts their respective arguments. Ole Miss beating
Alabama doesn’t count; the Crimson Tide don’t have any quality wins of their
own. Michigan State is going to be let down by its schedule eventually, but as
things currently sit the Spartans are just outside the top four.
Third Tier
Notre Dame
Georgia
Kansas State
Baylor
Notre Dame has the best loss of any team in the
country but zero good wins. Georgia has a bad loss (South Carolina) and no good
wins but has looked very good in recent weeks. Kansas State should be
undefeated and has a victory over Oklahoma, but has yet to face the meat of its
league schedule. Baylor’s West Virginia stumble looked bad, but could turn out
to be respectable. All of these teams will have opportunities to improve their
position in the coming weeks.
Pac-12
Report
It’s time to face facts: UCLA isn’t very good. The
Bruins led by double-digits and still couldn’t prevent Colorado, the worst team
in the conference, from forcing overtime. UCLA survived because it’s vastly
more talented, but come on. This has gotten ridiculous. Arizona visits this
week in a make-or-break game for this team. The Bruins have one last shot for
relevance; this is their moment.
Washington State’s chance has already come and gone;
the Cougars desperately needed a home win against Arizona last week to turn
things around. The South leaders didn’t cooperate and WSU finds itself sitting
at 2-6 with exactly zero guaranteed wins remaining. The Cougs could still
qualify for a bowl by winning out, but the chances of that seem pretty remote.
The defense simply isn’t good enough and the offense, though explosive, is
one-dimensional to the point of being predictable.
The Oregon – Cal game played out more or less as I
expected, with the Bears giving a decent effort but ultimately falling in a
shootout. The Ducks’ defense is what it is – not that bad, but frustratingly
erratic – which doesn’t make the 58-41 final that surprising (though UO did
lead 52-28 midway through the third). The real test is obviously this week,
when Stanford comes to town to try to ruin Oregon’s season for the third year
in a row. The Cardinal have some problems of their own, making the outcome
significantly murkier.
The disappointments of the weekend were Oregon State
and Washington, which both fell in largely noncompetitive losses to Stanford
and Arizona State, respectively. It’s hard to say if those results were the
product of great performances by the Cardinal and Sun Devils, or if the Beavers and
Huskies just aren’t that good. I lean toward the latter. OSU and UW have both
been pretty anemic offensively this year and I don’t know that either will
improve much as the season winds down.
The biggest winner was Utah, which edged USC in Salt
Lake City thanks to a tiny bit of a pick play. The Utes are one fourth-quarter
collapse (against WSU, of all teams) from being 7-0 and ranked in the top 10.
Now the schedule gets nasty: Utah faces ASU, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona in consecutive
weeks before the finale with Colorado. If the Utes run the table, they’re
golden, but that’s asking quite a lot, especially now that their best player
(receiver Dres Anderson) is out for the year.
The intrigue continues this week, when the North
will (likely) be decided by Stanford’s visit to Oregon. The Cardinal aren’t what
they have been the past few years thanks to a less dominant offensive line and
an even larger dearth of playmakers at the skill positions. But the defense is
still elite, and there’s the rub. Can UO, after getting ground to a halt the
last two meetings, flip the script and return to the blowouts of 2010-11? The
Ducks’ runaway victory of Michigan State this season would seem to indicate
that, but Stanford knows Oregon better than the Spartans. It’s a game that has
far-reaching implications.
Washington will look to end its two-game slide at
Colorado, where the Buffaloes gave UCLA a fright one week ahead of schedule.
You’d think the Huskies could similarly fix what ails them with a comfortable
win over the league’s worst team, but that’s probably what the Bruins thought,
too. CU has managed to battle several of the Pac-12’s middle class members
admirably this year and owns a not-insignificant home-field advantage. UW
should take this matchup seriously.
USC is at Washington State in what amounts to a
last-gasp effort for the Cougars to save their season. I don’t see it
happening; SC’s struggles have come against teams that could A) run the ball
and B) out-physical them. WSU can do neither of those things, and while the
Cougars will probably throw for 400 yards yet again, will it mean anything if
they give up 50 points? Crazy things have been known to happen on the Palouse,
but this feels like the end of the line for the Cougs in 2014.
Cal – Oregon State is another crossroads game, as
neither side can afford another loss in the quest for bowl eligibility. OSU has
a slightly easier road (and one more game remaining), but this is still pretty
much a must-win for the Beavers. Given the teams’ similar records, this contest
could also decide bowl pecking order. While Cal would be delighted to just be
playing in the postseason, OSU fans would be more than a little miffed by
another Vegas Bowl-type appearance. I think Cal’s explosive offensive will win
the matchup with OSU’s strong D, forcing the Beavs into a shootout their
offense can’t sustain.
The Arizona schools feature heavily in the nightcap,
with Arizona at UCLA and Utah at ASU. The surprising Wildcats sit at 6-1 but
outside the top 10, an indication voters and the playoff committee aren’t
convinced the Oregon win was anything but a fluke. ‘Zona gets a chance to prove
the doubters wrong this week by officially turning UCLA’s season from “disappointing”
to “nightmarish.” UCLA has more next-level talent and could, in theory, still
turn things around. But the ‘Cats 3-3-5 defense tends to give spread offenses
fits (see Ducks, Oregon), and the Bruins are far less explosive than UO. Unless UCLA
rediscovers its running attack, Arizona should win this game.
Finally, we have Utah – ASU. The Utes have lived a
charmed existence this year, outside of that fourth quarter with Washington
State. The trouble now is sustaining it, something I don’t think they’re
capable of doing. The biggest issue for Utah this season has been QB play and
now the biggest playmaker for this team is gone for the season. This is going
to look like Stanford East: all defense and running game. The Sun Devils have
been more competent defensively than they were supposed to be and still boast a
very dangerous dual-threat attack. The QB situation is a bit unsettled, but
both Taylor Kelly and Mike Bercovici have proved they can win games. I think
ASU probably has the edge at home.
Heisman
Watch
With the news that Georgia RB Todd Gurley has
officially been suspended four games, his campaign is over. Reigning winner
Jameis Winston has recused himself both for his off-field antics and his
mediocre on-field performance (16 TD’s, nine interceptions). That leaves
precious few players with a reasonable shot.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Here we are again, facing Stanford, with the
conference title and a Heisman trophy on the line. If Oregon keeps winning and
Mariota plays well, he will win the award. Period.
Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
Prescott means a whole lot to MSU and has gradually
improved as a passer throughout his career. In the unlikely event the Bulldogs
go undefeated he could become the favorite.
Everett Golson, QB, Notre Dame
Golson’s got his chances to move up against ASU and
USC, but it might take a fall from one of the other candidates to really make
him a contender.
Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU
Dude threw seven TD’s against Texas Tech. Boykin has
really matured as a passer and while he’s not as accurate as some of his peers
his yards-per-attempt is outrageous.
Random
Thoughts and Observations
A pair of Pac-12 passers make the news this week. First,
Washington State QB Connor Halliday, who sits exactly 2,000 yards short of the
NCAA FBS single-season passing record of 5,833 (5,336 in the 12-game regular season)
set by Texas Tech’s B.J. Symons in 2003. Barring injury, Halliday will
assuredly surpass at least the latter figure, and he has an outside shot at the
overall record. But will it be an empty accomplishment? Just as with his
single-game record of 734 against Cal earlier this year, Halliday’s numbers
could come largely in defeat. The Cougars sit at 2-6 and will probably miss a bowl
(which would make the 5,833 mark much more difficult to match). Symons at least
went 8-5 during his campaign – how much would Halliday’s record be worth if it
came during a 4-8 season? It’s not his fault the WSU defense is terrible, but
it’s still a question worth pondering.
Oregon State’s Sean Mannion will likely set a new
record this very week against Cal. The Beavers’ signal-caller needs a mere 195
yards to become the Pac-10/12’s all-time leading passer. Going up against the
worst pass defense in the conference, he could have that by halftime. It’s nice
for fans that Mannion will do it at home, but once again I question the
validity of the record. Mannion started nearly all of his disastrous 3-9 freshman
season in 2011, tossing 16 TD’s to 18 INT’s but padding his career total with 3,328
yards because OSU was always behind. His sophomore season he started hot, got
hurt and wasn’t the same after, throwing for 2,446 with 15 TD’s and 13 INT’s.
This season, Mannion’s numbers have again been pedestrian – 1,698 yards, seven
TD’s and five INT’s to this point – leaving us with one year, 2013, when he
actually put up impressive totals.
Last season, with the Beavers force-feeding future
first-round NFL pick Brandin Cooks the ball (128 catches, 1730 yards, 16 TD’s)
and OSU devoid of any type of running game, Mannion threw for 4,662 yards, 37
scores and 15 picks. That’s an pretty resume, and he probably should have
capitalized on it by declaring for the draft. But people who have watched
Mannion’s entire career see a different player, a guy a who has an outlier season
that looks great and otherwise boasts a 38-36 TD-to-INT ratio. He’ll
get the record. But he won’t really deserve to be mentioned with the greats the
Pac-12 has seen at the position.
Stanzi
Watch
It’s time to cut the list to just the finalists, AKA
the multiple-time winners. Everett Golson is no longer the unquestioned leader,
as Logan Woodside has made yet another push toward the coveted Stanzi. Who will
notch one this week? Here are Week 9’s winners and the finalists.
Logan Woodside, Toledo
Opponent: Massachusetts
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan
Opponent: Buffalo
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by six
Cole Stoudt, Clemson
Opponent: Syracuse
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 10
Anthony Jennings, LSU
Opponent: Ole Miss
Performance: Two INT, won by 3
J.T. Barrett, Ohio State
Opponent: Penn State
Performance: Two INT, won in overtime
Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3
Logan Woodside, Toledo: 3
Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2
Justin Holman, UCF: 2
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2
Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2
Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2
Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2
Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2
C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2
And there you have it. We’re approaching the end of
it all, but there’s no end in sight to the fun! Week 10 will surely provide
more of the same.
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