Thursday, September 26, 2013

Start of Conference Play signals end of Kentucky's Season

The indomitable spirit of college football willed Week Four into being watchable, thanks to a handful of supposed-pushovers who put up more of a fight than expected and more than a few BCS squads who looked a bit disinterested. It still wasn’t a riveting exhibition of the sport, but at least the 70-0 games were on regional channels and the national matchups were close. Of course, the close games were a result of some surprisingly bad play from a few alleged contenders. Michigan looked strangely vulnerable for the second straight week, costing the Wolverines votes in the polls. It didn’t help that their signature win, Notre Dame, also nearly lost again, this time to an utterly inept Michigan State offense (though the Spartans’ defense is pretty good).

The most surprising score of the day was the 21-21 that flashed on the bottom of TV screens during the third quarter of Georgia’s game with North Texas. However, don’t be fooled by the margin of victory. UGA dominated the contest with a greater-than-2:1 yardage advantage; the Mean Green’s second and third touchdowns came on a kickoff return and a blocked punt that made the game appear much closer than it was. Top contenders Clemson and Alabama also struggled somewhat against mediocre competition and, as with Georgia, shouldn’t be overly penalized for it.

The mega-blowouts administered to Florida International, Savannah State, Louisiana-Monroe and Florida A&M (courtesy of Louisville, Miami (FL), Baylor and Ohio State, respectively) hopefully won’t have any impact on the polls, because playing what amounts to JV teams shouldn’t be rewarded. Running up the score to 70 or more isn’t impressive. The fan response of “we took out our starters” doesn’t hold up under any scrutiny. All four teams put up at least three more TD’s in the second half and only OSU removed its starters immediately. That doesn’t mean they should be punished, but they shouldn’t gain a single vote for their “performances.” Yes, that means Baylor is still unranked, ‘cause Wofford, Buffalo, ULM? Give me a break. There’s some serious West Virginia 2012 potential with this Baylor team. Remember how WVU started 5-0, scoring at will, with Geno Smith all but handed the Heisman? Then the Mountaineers played some real defenses and lost five straight. When Baylor plays a remotely decent team (not until mid-October, sadly), call me.

Fortunately, next week should see the level of competitiveness improve dramatically. Thursday night features a realllllly interesting early ACC game between Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. The weekend begins with the intriguing South Carolina – UCF matchup, then continues with LSU at Georgia and Oklahoma making a return trip to Notre Dame. Good pickings abound as the afternoon goes on, too. Texas A&M goes to Arkansas in the old Southwest Conference rivalry and Alabama hosts Ole Miss in another meeting of SEC West teams. Undefeated Arizona and Washington clash in Seattle, while Stanford takes a dangerous trip to face WSU. In two key divisional showdowns, Wisconsin takes on Ohio State and USC goes to ASU. This is a full docket.

Top 25

There wasn’t a lot of change to be had with the slim pickings of last week. Stanford moved up, but so did Florida State, as both teams benefitted more from Ohio State’s inability to find a decent opponent than anything they did themselves on the field. Notre Dame drops out after another poor showing (and I seriously considered doing the same to Michigan). Next week this list will probably look very different.

1) Clemson

Yeah, Clemson wasn’t that great against NC State, but you know what? Neither was Alabama against CSU. If we’re taking for granted that NCSU is better than Colorado State, which they are, Clemson should remain number one. I’ll take a conference road victory – at a place notoriously difficult for top teams in the recent past – over a sleeper against a mid-major. To be sure, the Tigers will need to shore some things up to continue to hold onto the top spot (my prediction about the defense versus a power run game came true eerily fast), but no matter how you look at it Clemson still has the best win in the country.

2) Alabama

We’re at the point where the offensive line’s struggles are a concern. ‘Bama shouldn’t be gaining fewer than 350 yards against Colorado State at home. This squad is more experienced than last season’s but for some reason seems to be playing more like a group of underclassman now. There’s plenty to time to correct all these concerns (and it’s worth noting that several players saw reduced minutes against the Rams), but it would be nice to see a little fire from the Tide. Just because Nick Saban is a soulless automaton programmed to recruit future NFL first-rounders and win championships doesn’t mean the team has to play like robots. How about a statement against Ole Miss this week, eh?

3) Oregon

The Ducks could have dropped had any of the other contenders played someone good. The competition to this point has been… spotty, to say the least. At least we know Oregon is considerably better than Florida, thanks to that slopfest the Gators had with Tennessee. Given that UF is a fringe top-25 team right now, though, that’s not overly high praise. What is interesting is how the schedule, once forgiving, now seems a mite tougher. UCLA is going to be a barnburner and the trip to Washington is no longer a gimme by any stretch of the imagination. If the Ducks make it to Pasadena (either for the BCS Championship or the Rose Bowl), they’ll have earned it.

4) LSU

LSU was one of the few teams to come out of last weekend with a legitimate feather in its cap. No, I don’t think Auburn is that good, but that’s exactly how the Bayou Bengals made them look. The box score actually tells less about the game than you’d think: despite a slim edge in yardage, LSU scored the first 21 points and only allowed Auburn on the board after QB Zach Mettenberger (who needs a nickname, because I hate writing “Mettenberger” all the time) tossed his first INT of the year. To be honest, these Tigers have been the most impressive SEC team in 2013… but let’s wait until the showdown with Georgia this Saturday before jumping to too many conclusions.

5) FSU

The Seminoles didn’t crank up the unsportsmanlike scoring like some of their big-school counterparts, but their game with Bethune-Cookman was no less a laugher than those 70-point shellackings. Boston College this week should be a similarly-themed contest, but the next game against Maryland has suddenly become rather interesting. If FSU is the title contender I think they are, they’ll blow the Terrapins away too. Jameis Winston wasn’t his usual brilliant self this week, but it’s unlikely that any team on the ‘Noles schedule other than Clemson has the ability to make him look mortal if he’s on his game.

6) Stanford

For the first three quarters against the comedy of errors that is Arizona State, Stanford looked fantastic. The 21 points allowed in the fourth were a little disappointing, but the game was already over. I’ll certainly give the Cardinal credit for a dominant win. However, as I said last week, I’m thoroughly unconvinced that ASU is very good. They absolutely fulfilled my expectations by making prep-level mistakes, giving up blocked punts and missing tackles left and right. Part of that was Stanford, but part of it was also sheer ineptitude. Moving the Cardinal up one spot seems fair.

7) Ohio State

OSU has to slide because the schedule just hasn’t gotten any better. Until this week against Wisconsin! …Except the Badgers already lost… to a team that just got hammered. Anything short of a blowout Saturday will raise further questions for me about a team that is 16-0 under Urban Meyer but hasn’t faced a single legitimate threat in two years. The Buckeyes are stuck in an unfortunate situation not usually seen in the Big Ten: if they win close, people will say they’re overrated, but if they win big people will call the conference terrible. Louisville has the same problem, but that’s nothing new for a Big East team.

8) Georgia

I’ve already gone over what made the North Texas game appear close, but it’s also possible the Bulldogs were simply looking ahead to LSU. You can hardly fault them for that. With the running game and passing game both clicking for the first time in what seems like an eternity, the Tigers are formidable. Yet I remain strangely confident in this Georgia team despite its flaws. Perhaps it’s because we already know exactly what UGA is – rare for an elite team – because of the two high-profile games to start the season. Good as LSU seems to be, they haven’t faced an opponent on Georgia’s level. An LSU win wouldn’t shock me, but Between the Hedges I feel like this is the Bulldogs’ game to lose.

9) Louisville

I want to like Louisville so much, but every time I look at their schedule I just cringe. The Cardinals follow last week’s 72-0 throttling of FIU with a date at winless Temple, then finally get a smidge of competition in the form of Rutgers and UCF. To this point the Teethed Terrors (seriously, what kind of Cardinal has teeth?!) lead the nation in scoring defense and are averaging exactly 48 points per game… and the country remains entirely unconvinced. As they should. You gotta beat somebody with a pulse to climb higher up the rankings. The same applies to Baylor, but the difference is that Louisville went 11-2 last year and Baylor was 8-5.

10) Texas A&M

Consecutive road games with Arkansas and Ole Miss will really serve to clear the air around this team. Is A&M really good, or just a good offense? The Aggies predictably squashed SMU Saturday, but that does little for me considering Texas Tech did the same. Right now this team is still reaping the benefit of having played Alabama close (and rightfully so). In another couple of weeks they’ll need to start doing some winning of their own against decent squads, provided aTm wants to stay in the rankings. The good news is that after Ole Miss the schedule gets mighty accomodating, with four straight home games.

11) UCLA

It’s a good thing UCLA has that win over Nebraska, because sandwiched around that game are a pair of blowouts that don’t tell us anything about the team. I like Brett Hundley and it would appear the Bruins have taken that proverbial “next step” – yet, I thought that last year, too. With a second bye (already?) before a Thursday night date with Utah, UCLA won’t be going anywhere in the polls this week. I’m still hesitant to commit too heavily to this squad, which has played so efficiently on offense it actually makes me wary of a regression to the mean. Beating the Utes – who aren’t bad, especially at home – would help to assuage my fears.

12) South Carolina

I think Carolina is the better team and should win at UCF this Saturday. Without a doubt, the Gamecocks are more talented. As is always the case, though, the best team isn’t guaranteed of a victory. The Knights are a dangerous non-league foe, probably much more so than SC expected when scheduling this game. Normally I wouldn’t have this kind of trepidation for an SEC contender on the road, but the conference’s average performance so far this year and Carolina’s own sluggishness have created room for caution. Both the offense and defense seem to be less than the sum of their parts.

13) Oklahoma State

The Big 12’s continued horrendousness in non-conference play has the potential to hurt the Cowboys the most, as OSU is the most likely team to run the table. Problem is, if they did so, they’d never win an argument against an undefeated Pac-12 or Big Ten champion. This situation can be demonstrated by West Virginia’s 37-0 defeat at the hands of Maryland last Saturday. Okie State, as WVU’s next opponent, is now in the impossible situation of having to better a massive shutout or get called a fraud. With the ugly way the Big 12 has unfolded, this kind of thing is exactly what the Cowboys didn’t need.

14) Oklahoma

Speaking of teams hurt by WVU’s loss… how about OU? The Sooners beat the Mountaineers 16-7 in Week Two, which at the time looked unimpressive and now looks downright pitiful. Is Oklahoma about to get rocked in South Bend? I’d say yes, but I just remembered how bad Notre Dame has looked the past three weeks. With a bye to prepare, you’d certainly expect the Sooners to be ready to spring some payback on the team that embarrassed them at their own place last year. Then again, I thought similar things in 2012. Show me something, Blake Bell!

15) Washington

Washington’s rise has nothing to do with the 56-0 pasting of Idaho State and everything to do with Michigan’s downward spiral. Still, UW should feel good about their 3-0 start, even if Fresno took the air out of the big win over Boise State. Arizona comes to town this week and I don’t see the Huskies having any trouble. The ‘Cats are decent but have yet to be tested and more importantly have shown no signs of being able to throw the ball. I’m not sure if UW can really compete with Oregon and Stanford, but they’re a top-25 squad and should prove their ranking by winning big.

16) Ole Miss

The Rebel’s ranking is based more on the future than the past, as wins over Texas and Vandy aren’t exactly amazing. I don’t expect Ole Miss to put up a particularly good fight against Alabama this week, either. However, this young team, which will have played three consecutive road games after next week’s trip to Auburn, is extremely talented and should grow considerably as the season goes on. How do I know? Because after facing the Tigers, Mississippi gets an absurd six straight home dates. With a decent QB in Bo Wallace and a group of underclassmen improving each game, the Rebels are in excellent shape. Just probably not this week.

17) UCF

The Knights took a week off to prepare for South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney. Fair enough, although quite frankly Clowney hasn’t looked stellar so far this year. If the minor injuries hampering the Gamecocks’ star are more trouble than the team is letting on, UCF could be in for program-changing upset. I’m very surprised this team isn’t ranked yet considering how it went on the road and beat Penn State. The Nittany Lions aren’t world-beaters, but it’s a more impressive win than most teams can boast to this point. UCF has a balanced offense and an above-average defense. What more could the American Conference have asked for from a new member?

18) Miami (FL)

Miami had to drop because of how ugly Florida’s win over Tennessee looked. Clearly, the Gators were better than the Vols (as they were versus the ‘Canes), but watching that team is just awful. The giant blowout over Savannah State didn’t do anything for anyone and it’s unlikely this week’s game with a terrible USF team will, either. Thank goodness the Hurricanes start conference play soon. Even with the Florida win, I’m still not sure if this team is for real. They might have just caught the Gators on a bad offensive day (though to be fair, those are pretty common for UF right now) and the other two wins are against patsies.

19) Nebraska

Say it with me: UCLA can’t be top-15 team if Nebraska isn’t ranked. That’s not my rankings, that’s the actual polls. The Bruins’ only quality win is against the Cornhuskers, so a ranked Nebraska team is necessary to justify the UCLA hype. You can argue that the ‘Huskers haven’t beat anybody – though I actually think Wyoming might be pretty good – but neither has Florida or South Carolina, whose presence in the top 25 is noticeable. Heck – Wisconsin and Notre Dame are ranked right now, and neither of their losses is anywhere near the quality of Nebraska’s. This is a confusing situation. What isn’t confusing is whether the Cornhuskers are good.

20) Florida

Aside from Notre “Luckiest Team of All Time” Dame, Florida is probably the most aggravating squad to watch in all of college football. The Gators can’t throw, can’t really run and play a brand of good but not amazing D. Yet they win games like last Saturday’s matchup with Tennessee by simply being less inept than their opponent. I love turnovers as much as anyone, but getting bailed out six times (six!) by the Vols, including a couple that were just laughably dumb, isn’t sustainable by any means. The apparent loss of DE Dominique Easley could be crushing as well. Fortunately, this week the Gators get the cure for what ails you down South: Kentucky!

21) Michigan

Another week, another close win against a bad team, another slide. Was it all just a mirage? Is Notre Dame just terrible? Will Michigan even score on Ohio State this year? All these questions will be answered in due time, but for the moment, wow. The Wolverines had better use the week off to right the ship and get ready for a (currently) undefeated Minnesota team. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s gone wrong. The defense hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations and the offense has been both less productive and less efficient. Devin Gardner has looked lost the past two games after starting the season very strong. Thank goodness for byes.

22) Texas Tech

As one of the hipster TTU fans who can claim liking the team “before they were ranked” I feel vindicated. Wins over Texas State or Kansas (in two weeks) won’t impress anyone, but you know what does? The defense, ranked 15th in points allowed. To put it kindly, let’s just say that’s not what this team is known for. In fact, with Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia on deck, I think it’s pretty safe to call a 7-0 start for this team. Not bad for Kliff Kingsbury’s first coaching gig. The schedule will get tougher down the line, but with a win over a top-25 team under their belt the Red Raiders are essentially bulletproof until late October.

23) Fresno State

Defense? Not necessary. Fresno might end up as one of those 2008 Hawai’i-esque BCS busters who can’t play any D, but hey, they’ll be there. Derek Carr, while not the “best QB in the country” coach Tim DeRuyter claims, is pretty solid, seen by his 460-yard, four-TD performance against Boise State. His receivers Isaiah Burse and Davante Adams are stellar as well. There’s always the issue of the running game, sure, and the defense leaves a lot to be desired. However, with this sked it won’t be a problem. Outside of a tricky November road date with Wyoming I don’t see the Bulldogs getting threatened by any other team.

24) Northwestern

Northwestern, we meet again. Lest week I chastised the pollsters for handing the Wildcats a higher ranking than they deserved based on a lot of fluff wins in 2012. I’ll continue that this week, as NU rose again on the strength of… a 35-21 victory over Maine! Fun fact: the Black Bears outgained the Wildcats in both yards and first downs. The final margin was the result of a pair of pix-sixes; otherwise, Northwestern was played to a draw by an FCS team. Even with a week off to prepare for Ohio State this team has no business staying within three TD’s of the Buckeyes. Even this ranking feels potentially inflated.

25) Maryland

Maryland’s spot is brought to you by the transitive power, which is admittedly dangerous to apply in football. Taken in a vacuum, the Terrapins’ four wins aren’t particularly impressive. When compared to those of other contenders, though, they look a lot better. The Terps’ 11-point win at Connecticut was a lot prettier than the one Michigan just squeaked out, and Oklahoma’s 16-7 victory over WVU can’t compare to the 37-0 thrashing the Mountaineers took from Maryland Saturday. I have doubts – seen by the the Terps' presence at the bottom of my list – but 4-0 and a defense allowing only 10 points a game? I’ll take it.

Pac-12 Report

The league unfolded essentially as I expected in Week Four, with UW, WSU and UCLA notching massive blowouts, USC struggling with Utah State and Stanford putting ASU in their place. The outlier was Oregon State, who came away with a way-closer-than-it-should-have-been win over San Diego State. Utah also won a hard-fought game with rival BYU, which isn’t particularly noteworthy but serves as justification for showing this. See, BYU? This is why no one likes you.

The cupcake stompings don’t really need any analysis, so I’ll go straight to OSU. The time has come to admit that this Beavers team isn’t that good. The season is one-third over. Enough with the platitudes about growing pains and “sticking with” the run game. This team has an average offensive line with several players injured. That’s just a fact. It’s hard to consistently run the ball under those circumstances. While the passing game has been clicking, there will come a time when it doesn’t, either because of the lack of respect defenses will pay to the rushing attack or the fact that OSU hasn’t yet faced a D in the top 70. Meanwhile, as the Eastern Washington game showed, sometimes you can’t outscore everyone. The Beavs’ defense has also been very poor and appears overmatched against the top offenses in the conference.

As I said before, I’m not overwhelmed with Stanford, even though the ASU win was easily the Cardinal’s best performance of the year. The blowout was impressive, but the Sun Devils really aren’t. I’ve never seen a group of D-1 receivers drop as many balls as ASU’s did versus Wisconsin and Stanford, the special teams are a joke and the defense is decidedly mediocre. So while Stanford looked great… I’m questioning whether Arizona State is really a contender in the South this year. To be sure, the top-25 ranking was silly (and strange, given how voters normally don’t reward teams who benefit from bad calls).

Fortunately, this week is (finally) the first full slate of conference games. We’ll get some real answers for the first time in 2013, even though UCLA and Utah aren’t playing. Saturday begins with an intriguing matchup, Colorado at Oregon State. Now, regardless of whatever struggles the Beavs are having, OSU should have no trouble with the Buffs. However, CU has had two weeks to get ready for this game because of the flooding that postponed their visit from Fresno and the team has to be excited about the prospect of entering October undefeated for the first time in nearly a decade. The Buffaloes are seventh in the nation in passing and face an OSU defense allowing 35 points per game. Losing to Colorado at home would be a rock bottom I don’t expect the Beavers to hit, but I also doubt CU is going to go away quietly.

The Pac-12 won’t pick up a lot of East Coast viewers this week with three games concluding after midnight EST, but the one other game on at a reasonable hour should be a doozy. Arizona travels to Washington for a sweet showdown of 3-0 teams both putting up a ton of points and allowing very few in return. Despite the records, though, I feel this will be a fairly easy win for Washington. Unlike the Wildcats, the Huskies have already had both a home (Boise State) and road (Illinois) test and are moving the ball both on the ground and through the air. ‘Zona is getting production pretty much exclusively from the running game and has played much weaker competition. As an added bonus, the Wildcats have played all three of their games in Arizona and Nevada. The forecast for Saturday’s date in Seattle? 60 and raining.

The first game in the three-headed nightcap is a sleeper. Stanford was vastly outplayed and nearly lost to Wazzu in 2012 and now must travel to Seattle for a night game with a Cougars team that should be 4-0. WSU has begun to resemble the team people thought it might when Mike Leach took over and would certainly love nothing better than to shock the Cardinal. Sorry, guys. My soft spot for the Cougs aside, I expect Stanford to play better than they did last year, knowing this is not a team to be taken lightly. WSU’s crowd (always an underrated factor) may help the team jump out to an early lead, maybe even one they’ll hold at halftime. But the Cardinal are a bad matchup for Wazzu – too sound defensively, too ball-control heavy to allow enough scoring possessions. Eventually they’ll grind the Cougars down.

The second late game should be the most competitive as USC and Arizona State meet in the desert. Lost in the hubbub over SC’s horrendous offense is the secret of the Trojans’ D, which is allowing just 11 points per game. Considering the offense it works with, that’s amazing. After the first two weeks I would have said ASU, at home, would win this game going away. In the words of the immortal Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!” The Sun Devils have been atrocious defensively the past two weeks and committed a crazy amount of critical mistakes in all three phases. Who can out-inept who in this game? It sounds ridiculous even to me, but I’m sticking with my preseason pick, the Trojans. ASU should be the better team but has been too sloppy lately to trust.

The final night contest is Cal at Oregon, which should be an interesting exercise for both defenses. Cal has been atrocious this year, ranking in the bottom 25 in passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, pass efficiency defense and total defense. Oregon has a potentially special unit, especially in the secondary, but one that has yet to be tested by a competent passing offense. That’s the one thing the Bears have: true freshman Jared Goff leads the second-best air attack in the nation, throwing to a group of talented young receivers. However, Goff has yet to leave the friendly confines of Strawberry Canyon and he’ll be in for a nasty time at Autzen Stadium. Playing catch-up all game against Oregon’s speedy offense won’t help, either.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Several commentators made references to Florida’s season potentially being “lost” due to QB Jeff Driskel’s broken leg. Things like that are the reason I write this blog. You realize Driskel is terrible, right? In his entire career, he’s got 14 TD passes to 10 interceptions. If you’re thinking his running ability makes up for it, he averages three yards per carry for his career. If anything, Florida can potentially be much better without Driskel. His injury is unfortunate, but let’s have some perspective.

Driskel’s injury does continue a troubling trend of serious injuries among college players. In recent years there has been a steady rise in not only concussions but season-ending knee injuries. In both cases the NCAA is at fault for not mandating proper safety equipment. Players still wear decades-old helmet designs that are criminally unsafe and players are not forced to wear mouthguards – the most important part of concussion prevention – despite their mandatory use in youth football. For knee and leg injuries, the biggest problem is that most skill players don’t wear knee (or thigh) pads, vital to stopping blown knees. If the NCAA actually cared about players, it would require these types of basic safety equipment.

Stanzi Watch Update: Still no Heisman talk, but we’ve got movement on the Stanzi front! Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas, always a Stanzi threat, has claimed his first trophy of the year. But Michigan’s Devin Gardner has taken a commanding lead as the only player with two Stanzis to this point. There were quite a few near-misses as well, but here are Week Four’s winners:

Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
Opponent: Marshall
Performance: Two INT, one FUM (recovered himself), scored game-winning TD in OT

Jake Heaps, Kansas
Opponent: Louisiana Tech
Performance: Two INT (one late in game), led game-winning drive

Gary Nova, Rutgers
Opponent: Arkansas
Performance: Two lost FUM, one INT (for TD), led team back from 17-point deficit

Devin Gardner, Michigan
Opponent: Connecticut
Performance: Two INT, two FUM (one for TD, one recovered himself), led team back from 14-point deficit

After four weeks our leader is Gardner, who has two Stanzis to several players’ one. It’s a long season, but things have started to get interesting, especially with Thomas throwing his hat into the ring. Here are the Stanzi Standings so far (with severity of performance the tiebreaker):

2013 Stanzi Awards

Devin Gardner, Michigan: 2
Connor Wood, Colorado: 1
Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech: 1
Jake Heaps, Kansas: 1
Gary Nova, Rutgers: 1
Connor Halliday, WSU: 1

I loved seeing the fight Eastern Illinois put up against Northern Illinois. Why don’t more FCS teams play like this in those big-money games? Here’s how Saturday’s game started: EIU drove 75 yards in less than three minutes, scoring a TD and then going for two (they failed). Undaunted, the Panthers promptly tried and recovered an onside kick, then scored on a 43-yard pass the next play. After an NIU three-and-out, they came right back down the field and took a 20-0 lead halfway through the first quarter. The defense eventually couldn’t hold up and the Huskies won 43-39, but that kind of aggressiveness is rare from an FCS team and deserves to be lauded.

Next week: Finally, enough data for Heisman talk? Also, what does it mean that players who a few years ago would have been derided as “system” QB’s are now praised as the best signal-callers in the land? The fate of the zone-read in the NFL might play a large role.

No comments:

Post a Comment