After a delightful 5-1 start to the bowl season I found myself sitting at a mere 6-5 thanks to flop artists like UCLA. Hopefully the next few days will be kinder, if Friday's 3-0 mark is any kind of indication. The big news in the past week was Nevada's Chris Ault deciding to call it a career after 28 seasons with the Wolf Pack. Ault is a Hall of Famer and deservedly so; elements of his Pistol offense are now found in football at all levels. It's sad to see such an important figure in the sport leave.
But on to the picks! A time crunch will only allow me to preview this weekend's games. I will edit this post later to account for all the contests through next Friday. For now, you'll have to be satisfied with Saturday's five-game slate. The same criteria apply: all times are Pacific and the matchups are rated on a scale from 1-5.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Rice (6-6) vs. Air Force (6-6)
December 29, 8:45 a.m.
See what I mean? There is no reason for this game to happen. Two .500 mid-majors with zero decent wins between them, and our reaction is, "Boy! Those teams deserve a bowl game!" The Falcons have been their usual selves this season, rushing for a million yards a game in the triple option and passing for almost none. The Owls are much more balanced offensively. Neither squad can play anything resembling respectable defense. To be honest, I don't have any idea which team will win this game. It's not compelling in any way. My instinct is to go with Air Force, even though they lost to Army (Army, for goodness' sake).
Watchability: 1. Maybe.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
West Virginia (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
December 29, 12:15 p.m.
Were this game happening in September, I would have taken WVU by 100. As it stands now, it's tough to say. Was the Mountaineers' 5-0 start really that much of a mirage? Are they really as mediocre as they looked during the Big 12 schedule? Or was it a product of playing in a good conference for the first time? Syracuse limped out of the gates at 1-3 and looked as bad as they have for several years. Then the Orange made a stunning reversal behind QB Ryan Nassib and finished 5-1. Meanwhile, WVU's Geno Smith seemed to lose his ability - and his confidence - as the year wore on. My brain doesn't want to accept that West Virginia is this bad, but I think those are the facts we've been shown. In an previously unthinkable decision, I'm going to go with 'Cuse.
Watchability: 2. Big East teams aren't good. WVU still counts.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Navy (8-4) vs. Arizona State (7-5)
December 29, 1:00 p.m.
Interesting matchup, this. Navy once again claimed the crown of king of the academies (for about the 15th straight season) by running over everyone, but the Midshipmen were average offensively overall. It was a solid 2012, but they didn't really beat anyone. ASU was one defensive stop against UCLA from winning the South and playing for the Rose Bowl in Todd Graham's first year. Even at 7-5, they have to be happy with how the season played out. Frosh quarterback Taylor Kelly was a revelation for the Sun Devils, a player who they hope to build around for years to come. While ASU played somewhat erratically, losing to Missouri and beating Arizona, they are the more talented team in this game. And for once - thanks to ditching Dennis Erickson - they're also quite disciplined. Navy's ground game can be tough to get a handle on, but ASU's Will Sutton is a monster at eating up the option. Arizona State should win.
Watchability: 3. Few teams run the flexbone as well as Navy and ASU is explosive.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Texas (8-4) vs. Oregon State (9-3)
December 29, 3:45 p.m.
This game is a bit of a riddle. No one would argue that Oregon State has been a better team in 2012, leaping out to a 7-0 start and losing only to Oregon, Washington and Stanford. Texas won several games by narrow and lucky margins and was actually fortunate to make a bowl game. However, OSU has traditionally struggled going up against teams with greater talent. There's no denying that the Longhorns have a lot of that. In a worst-case scenario, the Beavers get overwhelmed by UT's speed and athleticism on both sides. However, there are a few things going in OSU's favor. First, there's the matter of that potentially ugly assault case involving two Texas players. Aside from being disturbing, that kind of thing has a knack for really distracting teams. There's also game planning and play calling. If there's one thing I've learned in my years of football obsession, it's that Mack Brown can't coach to save his life. Mike Riley,on the other hand, is outstanding. No coach gets less out of his resources than Brown; few get more from their talent than Riley. If I have to choose between the two, I'll go with Riley 10 times out of 10.
Watchability: 4. We're talking a springboard for 2013 for both teams, as well as Brown possibly coaching for his job.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
TCU (7-5) vs. Michigan State (6-6)
December 29, 7:15 p.m.
I'll say this for Michigan State: they're not nearly as bad as you think. That 6-6 record includes a whole lot of close losses. 8-4 was a couple of fortunate bounces away and there's no reason why the Spartans couldn't have won the conference title (hey, they beat Wisconsin). Now for the bad: The offense is atrocious; if "implosive" was a word ascribed to football teams, it would apply to this one. The defense is good, but not as elite as its numbers indicate. Playing in the Big Ten tends to do that. MSU stands a good chance in this game, though, because TCU is fairly similar. The Horned Frogs had to adjust to a mid-season QB change and did it admirably; but it was obvious this was the worst TCU team in about five years. I can easily see this matchup turning into a slow-motion slugfest. Michigan State could win such a game. However, TCU has an advantage in the big-play ability of QB Trevone Boykin, who gives the Horned Frogs a dimension the Spartans simply cannot match. Good though the MSU defense may be, I can't pick a team whose offense is this low-wattage. TCU should win.
Watchability: 2. The teams are decent but the playing style won't be.
December 31, 9:00 a.m.
It killed my soul a little bit to have to type the name of this game. Vanderbilt is average offensively and despite an 8-4 record didn’t defeat a single decent team this year. NCSU features a pretty good QB in Matt Glennon and was the only team to beat Florida State
Watchability: 2. Neither team is particularly interesting, but they’re better than most mid-majors.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
USC (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6)
December 31, 11:00 a.m.
USC will be without QB Matt Barkley, but that’s about all the Yellow Jackets have to pin their hopes on in this one. At 6-7, Tech is fortunate to even be in the postseason. After a hot start with the triple option under Paul Johnson the flexbone has become less and less effective. The Trojans’ defense has been terrible this year, but it should get enough stops here to allow SC’s talented offensive playmakers to outscore whatever Tech comes up with. I’m putting a lot of faith in Lane Kiffin, but I think in this case he’ll come through. There’s no way the Yellow Jacket’s defense should be able to contain Lee, Woods and Co.
Watchability: 2. Barkley was the big draw, although Marqise Lee is always fun to watch.
Autozone Liberty Bowl
December 31, 12:30 p.m.
It’s been a struggle for ISU to run and throw in 2012 (though that’s not exactly a new thing). Tulsa has been its typical offensive machine, but playing in the Conference USA stretches those numbers sometimes. These teams met on the opening weekend this year, which adds a little extra intrigue. Rematches are strange in football, particularly in college. The adage that it’s always harder to beat an opponent a second time will apply. However, the records and stats don’t account for strength of schedule, so what’s lost in this apparent mismatch is how good the Cyclones were this year in the tough Big 12. They very nearly upset a handful of top programs and have become a squad no one wants to see. The Golden Hurricane have gaudy numbers but beat pretty much no one. I’ll take ISU again.
Watchability: 2. When Tulsa is scoring they’re a joy to watch, but ISU is defense-oriented.
Chick-fil-A Bowl
LSU vs. Clemson
December 31, 4:30 p.m.
I like Clemson. Clemson is a good team. Clemson has the best (maybe the three best) offensive player(s) in this game. Tahj Boyd, Sammy Watkins and Andre Ellington are a trio of which most teams in the country are envious. But we’re talking about LSU here. Say what you what about Les Miles and the Tigers – Lord knows I have – but dadgummit if they aren’t lethal in these scenarios. A finesse, spread offense featuring small, quick skill players? Sound familiar? LSU eats those teams alive. It doesn’t matter that they don’t have a QB or an offense with a pulse. The defense will get things done long enough for the offense to make one or two plays. That’s how it always works for the Bayou Bengals in non-conference games. Clemson is no slouch, but the ACC is, and I would never be foolish enough to pick the ACC over the SEC after what we’ve seen out of both leagues, not only in the past but during this season. Don’t trust the ACC. Believe in the SEC. LSU wins.
Watchability: 4. I expect a one-sided game but there will be a lot of talent on the field.
Mississippi State
Georgia (11-2) vs. Nebraska (10-3)
South Carolina (10-2) vs. Michigan (8-4)
Wisconsin (8-5) vs. Stanford (11-2)
Louisville (10-2) vs. Florida (11-1)
Oregon (11-1) vs. Kansas State
Texas A&M (10-2) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)
Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
January 1, 9:00 a.m.
MSU followed a familiar pattern of beating up a bunch of patsies to steal a national ranking, then flopped once they started playing good teams. It wasn’t as if the Bulldogs lost close, either: in four of their final five games, MSU lost by at least 17 points. Northwestern had a heartbreaking year that should have ended in a Big Ten championship but was undone by a handful of unlucky breaks. Now, in the past MSU and the SEC have rebounded from underwhelming regular seasons to win these bowl games, but in this case I’m going against historical trends. I like the Wildcats’ playmaking combination of Kain Colter and Venric Mark. Despite Northwestern’s inability to throw the ball, they can make enough plays to beat this overrated Bulldogs squad. MSU crumpled when the spotlight was on this year, while the Wildcats hung with the best teams in the conference even when they didn’t win.
Watchability: 3. About as inadequate as a New Year’s bowl can get.
Heart of Dallas Bowl
Purdue (6-6) vs. Oklahoma State
January 1, 9:00 a.m.
It’s no secret that I’m fond of this Oklahoma State Iowa , Indiana and Illinois to get to bowl eligibility. Okie State
Watchability: 2. Actually, THIS is as bad as New Year's bowls get. OSU will score but the game won’t be close.
Capital One Bowl
January 1, 10:00 a.m.
Before their respective conference championship games, I might have gone with Nebraska . Both teams’ performance in those games, though, changed things significantly. Georgia didn’t beat anyone of value during the regular season, but showed up big-time against Alabama . The Cornhuskers, with a Rose Bowl berth seemingly in their grasp, choked spectacularly against Wisconsin . Nebraska doesn’t play much D, as seen by the 70 the Badgers threw on them. UGA will have a field day running and throwing and I expect them to build a decent lead. When that happens, Nebraska ’s QB-oriented attack will stall out, because dinky play fakes and option runs tend to not fool a defense when it has a multiple-score lead. If the Huskers have to throw, they will lose. Their only hope is to get up on the Bulldogs early, both to protect their own defense and to allow their offense to stay balanced. I don’t see it happening. Georgia will take it.
Watchability: 4. A couple of name programs and a good number of pro prospects in this one.
Outback Bowl
January 1, 10:00 a.m.
Injuries schmin-juries. South Carolina brushed off devastating personnel losses to reach 10 wins despite actually playing some difficult cross-division games in the SEC. Michigan, despite gamely limping to a 8-4 record themselves, proved everything we had assumed about them in their blowout loss to ‘Bama in the opener. The Wolverines were never really in the Big Ten chase and have clearly regressed from 2011. At times this season Big Blue was an absolute mess on offense. The defense was solid, but remember, this is the Big Ten we’re talking about. I don’t care who the Gamecocks trot out on offense, they’re not losing this game. The defense is still scary-good and features a plethora of potential NFL talent. UM won’t score on these guys. It’s possible that Carolina ’s crippled offense may have some problems of its own, but in the end the SEC team will be able to make the plays to win this game.
Watchability: 3. Michigan shouldn’t be playing on New Year’s Day.
Rose Bowl
January 1, 2:00 p.m.
On paper, Stanford should be able to mow down this Badgers team. However, I’ve got a feeling, much like I did before the Big Ten Championship, that Wisconsin is going to surprise us. Before that game I outlined why the Badgers were underrated, an argument that noted how many close games the team had unluckily lost. Question: which of these teams has the better offense? If you said Wisconsin , you’re right. The Badgers are superior in both yards and scoring. The defenses are roughly comparable. Both squads rely on running the ball down the opposition’s throat and squeezing them inside defensively. The Cardinal have the better passing attack, which would seem to give them more options regardless of what type of game this turns out to be. But anyone who has watched Stanford this year knows that regardless of what the stats say, this is not a team comfortable throwing the ball. There are a number of other factors that loom in Wisconsin ’s favor: the motivation to not lose a third straight Rose Bowl, the opportunity to silence critics who believe they shouldn’t be there and the chance to send Montee Ball out right. On top of that, there’s the nagging issue of the Pac-12’s atrocious performance so far this bowl season, which has made me highly suspicious of the conference’s overall quality. What the heck, I’ll go for it: Wisconsin in an upset.
Watchability: 4. The only thing keeping this from a top rating is the extremely boring style of both teams.
Discover Orange Bowl
Northern Illinois (12-1) vs. Florida State
January 1, 5:30 p.m.
The superb Husky offense meets the outstanding Seminole D. I like this NIU team a lot and defended them vociferously after their BCS selection, which I felt they deserved. Jordan Lynch is as good a player as the mid-majors can offer and the defense is ranked in the top 20 in scoring. However, it’s probably true that FSU will overwhelm them in this game. It’s not because the Huskies are bad; it’s much more a matter of matchups, and the truth is that the Seminoles are a terrible team for NIU to play. What defeats the spread option and dual threat QB’s like Lynch? Fast, athletic defenses with size and speed. The ‘Noles have that in spades. For a team that rushes for as many yards as NIU does, they’re remarkably small. That bodes ill against the monstrous (and quick) FSU front. On the perimeter the matchups may be even worse. Florida State
Watchability: 3. It’s the Orange Bowl, but this might be one-sided.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
January 2, 5:30 p.m.
Look, the Big East is awful. We know that. But this truly may be a beatdown for the ages. Florida was one grossly unlucky fumble away from going undefeated. Even if the offense is sickeningly bad, the Gators are good enough defensively to make up for almost anything. Louisville is a feel-good team but one that just didn’t do anything impressive during the regular season, even against a very weak schedule. They only averaged 31 points and gave up about one touchdown less per game. I’m positive they’re not as good as Northern Illinois . Florida ’s offensive numbers are worse than the Cardinals’, yes, but that comes from playing in a league where defense is more than just an urban legend. This game distinctly reminds me of the 2009 Cincinnati-Florida matchup, when the high-scoring Big East champs were throttled by the Gators. The difference this time is that while UF’s D is just as good, Louisville is much worse on offense than that Cincy team. This could get really ugly.
Watchability: 3… if you like sacks and interceptions.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
January 3, 5:30 p.m.
Ah, fate. But for a few lost hours on the night of November 17, this matchup might be taking place a few days later in the National Championship. Alas, it was not to be. At least we’ll always know who WOULD have won that game. Both defenses are solid units that have given up too many big plays at times this season. The biggest advantage appears to be the Oregon offense; the Ducks average 550 yards and 50 points a game. K-State is no slouch themselves, scoring over 40 per contest, but UO is in another stratosphere. The catalyst for this has been Oregon ’s young QB Marcus Mariota, who coolly guided a young offense with 30 TD passes and an unflappable demeanor. Of course, when it comes to unflappable signal-callers, even Mariota has to bow to KSU’s Collin Klein, who has dragged the Wildcats to 21 wins in their last 24 games seemingly through sheer force of will. He’s not fast or a great passer, but he makes plays in crunch time. Oregon has struggled some with dual-threat QB’s in the past, but seemed to turn a corner in the 2010 BCS Championship with a stellar effort against Auburn ’s Cam Newton. Since then UO has been quite good at scheming away what opposing offenses want to do. Kansas State Oregon won’t stop the Wildcats’ offense, but they’ll attack their bread-and-butter ground game and force KSU to throw more than they want. If the Ducks get up and keep scoring, I don’t see Kansas State Oregon should win.
Watchability: 5. There will be scoring and these are two high-quality squads.
AT&T Cotton Bowl
January 4, 5:00 p.m.
What a matchup this is. While neither the Sooners’ nor the Aggies’ defense is anything to sneer at, the story here is offense. Offense offense offense. Both teams average 500+ yards a game and can explode at a moment’s notice. Give the edge through the air to OU for their talented receivers and the advantage on the ground to option-friendly A&M, but both attacks are versatile enough to go either way. For the Sooners, it’s a question of consistency. Can this team bring enough defensive intensity to contain Johnny Football and avoid the offensive mistakes that have plagued them in their confounding losses? A&M is on a roll and boasts the Heisman winner, although that’s historically been a footnote rather than an exclamation point. Oklahoma should be seething at being left out of the BCS and ready to prove that they belonged there. I’d imagine both of these teams, so familiar with each other, would also like to strike a blow for conference bragging rights. I want to pick OU, but I’ve just been burned too many times in big games by these guys. Until the Sooners can prove that they deserve my respect in high-profile showdowns like this, I’m not taking them again. Texas A&M beats the Heisman Curse and wins.
Watchability: 5. Historic powerhouses in what is essentially a BCS game.
So that’s it through Friday. There are only three games next week, after which we will celebrate the looming one-year death-day of the BCS. Onward, to victory! And a playoff that works for the people, by the people!
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