The Natty: it's here

Well, here we are. It’s been a long time coming. The bowl slate is essentially over, and Auburn and Oregon comprise the last remaining watchable contest of the season. So what can fans expect to see in this most exciting matchup?

This game could act as a window to the future of sorts, with old maxims being replaced. As everyone is aware by this point, neither team resembles many of the college football champions of old. The Ducks and Tigers play fast and loose on offense, taking risks with what would have been considered gadget plays a generation ago, and running most snaps from the shotgun. The defenses are fast and aggressive, but neither is consistent or dominant enough to be considered anything close to elite. In fact, both teams have a noticeable lack of NFL talent relative to past champions.

The SEC has used superior size and speed to win the last four national championships. Speed won’t be an advantage against Oregon. Commentators have gushed over the last few years about the speed of the Ducks’ offense, and this season the defense has caught up. Auburn won’t be able to run away from Oregon; in fact, Oregon may actually be able to out-pace Auburn. Size, though, is a different matter.

While the Tigers’ offensive line is not the largest the Ducks have faced this year, they are still quite powerful and dominant. Just look at the time Cam Newton gets to throw. Auburn’s size isn’t just relegated to the O-line, either. The Tigers’ defensive front seven is all quite large as well. The difference between them and Oregon’s other competition is that Auburn’s linebackers and ends are both big and fast, rather than one or the other.

However, there’s a reason that Auburn’s defense was so bad this year: the Tigers’ defense isn’t regular SEC-caliber. Auburn’s starters are pretty solid, excluding the secondary, but the defense lacks the depth typical of a Southern team. The Tigers are good up front (10^th in the country against the run) and mediocre everywhere else. Oregon should have the advantage on offense.

The same applies for Auburn, though. Although Oregon’s defense is underrated, they do have a noticeable lack of size, particularly on the line. Can the Tigers mash the Ducks the way the last two teams to beat Oregon (Stanford and Ohio State) did? The formula to beat UO in the past two seasons has been essentially the same for every team: overpower the Ducks at the line, control and clock and keep Oregon’s offense off the field. Auburn has the potential to do just that. However, it’s worth noting that Stanford tried the same thing this year and failed.

Defensively, the teams that have slowed Oregon’s spread (and spread offenses in general) have gotten great penetration into the backfield to disrupt the Duck’s timing and rhythm. This also applies to Auburn’s offense, but the Tigers’ big D-line is better suited to accomplish this than Oregon’s. Fortunately for the Ducks, though, defensive penetration is often based on gambling against the abilities of the opposing passer, and Darron Thomas has provided a welcome upgrade in that area in 2010.

Comparing the teams by position, I think that Auburn has the advantage on the offensive line and in Cam Newton. Oregon’s offensive line is good enough that their matchup with Auburn’s front should be a wash, and Oregon’s receivers are a little better than Auburn’s, mostly because of their excellent blocking ability. Oregon’s backs are certainly superior. But what matters most is the matchups each of the groups will get against their counterparts.

Oregon’s receivers are only a little better than Auburn’s receivers. But they’ll be going against a fairly weak Tiger secondary. On the other hand, Auburn’s pretty good receivers will be going against a very high-level defensive backfield. Advantage, Ducks. In short, Oregon appears to stack up better at the skill positions and Auburn looks stronger along the lines. Line play tends to decide games.

Then, of course, there’s the final aspect – special teams. The kicking games are more or less even, but Oregon holds a huge edge in the return game. It would be surprising to see the game decided by a special teams play, but this is the most glaring mismatch of the entire contest so it should be noted.

In the end, what do I think will happen? It’s been extremely tough to make up my mind. I recall thinking just before the Oregon-Stanford game in October that the Ducks could really be in trouble, and it looked like they were. I also thought Alabama would be able to handle Auburn, and it looked like the Tigers were dead in the water early. But both teams rallied on those occasions, scoring their most impressive victories of the season to get here. The Ducks and Tigers have both shown a bizarre propensity to play opponents close until they blow them out in the second half. Oregon was slightly more dominant in the regular season, Auburn played a slightly tougher schedule.

I’ve gone back and forth on this game several times since the matchup was finalized on December 4^th. If the game had been played the next week, Auburn was on enough of a roll that I have almost no doubt the Tigers would have won. However, this massive layoff has allowed me to think and afforded the teams time to rest and prepare. I feel that, with the motivation and experience from last year’s Rose Bowl failure, Oregon will have a much better idea of how to play in this game. Auburn has had over a month of collecting awards and hearing about the media making them the favorite. I’ve decided to go with Oregon. After this season, how could I not?