Michigan's folly

National Overview

Mmm-hmm. A person could get used to the filet mignon that was Week 5. The party started Thursday night in Lubbock and didn’t end until late Saturday in Salt Lake City. In between we got a handful of shootouts, a Heisman statement (and a Stanzi statement!) and very nearly saw the nation’s top-ranked team go down. Now that’s some good eating. If October can match what the end of September provided, college football fans will be stuffed long before Thanksgiving.

Texas Tech actually held serve quite impressively against Oklahoma State but for an inexplicable inability to diagnose and defend the Cowboys’ deep ball. OSU quarterback Daxx Garman went nuts with his speedy home run-hitting receivers, completing seven passes of 20 or more yards. Yet the game was still in doubt until Tech QB Davis Webb left the game in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury. Bad news for the Red Raiders, but a strong showing for Okie State to come back after a lifeless first quarter.

The big Pac-12 showdown materialized, then evaporated, in a bizarre game in Tempe behind a flurry of big plays from UCLA. Arizona State held a 17-6 lead early in the second quarter, then was hit by a 42-3 avalanche over the next 20 minutes of game time. The Bruins’ Brett Hundley returned from injury to post perhaps the best game of his career, as the QB tossed four touchdowns without an interception go along with 355 yards through the air. Were the doubters wrong all along? More on this later.

Georgia outlasted Tennessee in a back-and-forth affair that saw RB Todd Gurley’s Heisman hopes revived in a big way, thanks to a career high 208 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs are still hanging around in the SEC (and championship) discussion because of South Carolina’s second conference loss (the Gamecocks just can’t get out of their own way). UGA has too many issues on both sides to be considered a true contender, but in the surprisingly watered-down East this team has a great shot at a return to Atlanta.

Florida State’s second-half rally at North Carolina State – a place the Seminoles have struggled historically, for some reason – was enough to save an undefeated season, but it revealed even larger cracks in FSU’s armor that are getting harder and harder to ignore. I already moved the ‘Noles out of my playoff group last week; with more performances like this it wouldn’t be a surprise to see pollsters do the same. The ACC is not very good and style points are necessary. This is a new era for college football. Slipping by in a weak league is no longer a free ticket to the big game.

Texas A&M also had its closest call to date, coming back from a 14-point deficit to win in overtime. Arkansas closed poorly, but the Aggies really didn’t deserve to win. After witnessing South Carolina’s struggles, it’s looking more and more like this A&M squad is very good but not elite. We’ll see when the Aggies move into the meat of the SEC schedule. The West is a unforgiving minefield and at this point I don’t see any team navigating it unscathed.

Stanford also managed to live another day after a horrendously ugly game at Washington. Neither offense had much success doing anything and the 13-13 halftime score stood until the winning TD at the 4:29 mark of the fourth quarter. While UW’s hopes for much of anything out of the 2014 season are all but dashed, the Cardinal have once again positioned themselves to play the role of tortoise to Oregon’s hare in the Pac-12 race. The North will be very interesting to watch unfold.

In Big Ten news, the conference’s undefeated teams were whittled to one when Penn State got hammered at home by Northwestern, virtually assuring the Nittany Lions will be shut out of the new playoff. 5-0 Nebraska travels to Michigan State this week in a game that will likely serve as an eliminator for the national championship. MSU can’t afford another loss but is otherwise alive and well in the playoff chase, while the Cornhuskers could make a huge statement with a road win over the Spartans. I think MSU is easily the better team, but Nebraska has been tough to pin down over the past several seasons.

Several other big matchups loom as we enter October: Arizona – Oregon on Thursday night is a major trap game for the Ducks; there’s a trio of giant SEC West showdowns in Texas A&M – Mississippi State, Alabama – Ole Miss and LSU – Auburn; TCU opens Big 12 play by hosting Oklahoma; Stanford renews its rivalry with Notre Dame; Arizona State gets a chance at redemption at USC (where QB Taylor Kelly may return), and of course there’s Nebraska and Michigan State. October is upon us.

Playoff Poll

As I explained last week, it feels wrong to write a top 25 when we’re living in a post-BCS world. Instead, I’ll be doing a power poll for the “last four in” or playoff participants, followed by a second and third tier of contenders. It will look similar to how the NCAA Tournament "bubble" is formulated, with an emphasis on recent performances and the body of work in relation to other teams. Here is my first playoff power poll.

College Football Playoff

1) Oregon vs. 4) Oklahoma

2) Texas A&M vs. 3) Alabama

Oregon retains the top spot (barely) thanks to the best win any team has all year: 46-27 over Michigan State. Texas A&M nearly slipped but has a pair of decent wins: at South Carolina and against Arkansas in Arlington. Alabama has looked very good – though not, perhaps, at the level people expected – and hasn’t played anyone. Oklahoma has been more dominant than Alabama but struggled in its first game against a real team.

Second Tier

Florida State

Auburn

Just two schools for now. Auburn is lucky to be here following that near-loss at Kansas State, while FSU simply cannot be in the top four after playing three underwhelming games against all three of its FBS foes.

Third Tier

Michigan State

Baylor

UCLA

Mississippi State

The Spartans have the potential to run roughshod over the Big Ten and they’ll need to in order to move up. Baylor has a scary ceiling but is more susceptible to a “blown tire” loss than any other contender. UCLA gets credit for that big win at ASU but will need to continue to play like that to keep my trust. Mississippi State is the first real darkhorse after crushing LSU (although the Bulldogs nearly gave the game away late).

Pac-12 Overview

Well, let’s start with the Thursday showdown. UCLA at ASU. Two top-15 teams, albeit one missing its star QB. The Sun Devils had the home-field edge and came out hot. Then the Bruins responded with a 28-0 run that turned a 17-6 deficit into a 34-17 lead. UCLA scored in all three phases and had four TD’s of 80 yards (!) or more. ASU never got closer than 14 the rest of the way. It was a statement for the away team as it flexed its top-10/playoff bona fides. At least, that’s what the media narrative seems to be. It’s not exactly what happened.

Make no mistake, the Bruins turned things around in impressive fashion. ASU looked like the better team in the first quarter and then very suddenly didn’t. But a lot of inadequacies got covered up by a perfect storm of turnovers, situational play and luck. For one, UCLA will go another 50 years before it scores four TD’s of 80 or more yards in a single game. That kind of explosion just doesn’t happen. And yes, UCLA did win by 35 – but the defense gave up 626 yards to an offense helmed by a backup QB making his first start. The Sun Devils had four turnovers to the Bruins’ none, which made a reasonably close game look like a rout. And finally, ASU’s defense, as I explained in the preseason, could be the conference’s worst along with Colorado and Cal’s.

All this doesn’t mean UCLA isn’t good. It just means the praise emanating from the media (who picked the team to be better than it has been, if you recall) are far more self-serving than realistic. The Bruins still face a tough schedule and are by no means a favorite – yet – to make the playoff. Let’s see them win the division before we make grandiose predictions. A strong performance against Utah this week would be a good start and prove this team can be consistent.

Colorado – Cal sure was fun, eh? Seven TD passes on either side (tying an NCAA record), a frantic comeback followed by another frantic comeback and double OT. Not bad for the league’s alleged bottom-feeders. Granted, both defenses are pretty bad. But the Buffaloes and Bears are a combined 5-4 after this week, which doesn’t exactly scream “awful.” Cal, in particular, should be 4-0. I had the Bears pegged for two or three wins this year, but if the D can improve a bit the offense might be good enough to drag this squad into bowl contention.

There’s not much more to be said about Stanford – Washington I didn’t bring up earlier. The Huskies are clearly not ready to take that next step despite upgrading their coaching situation. The offense was abysmal against the Cardinal. Cyler Miles may or may not be the answer at QB, but the problems are much more wide-ranging than that. We now have five games of evidence to prove UW isn’t consistent at all. For the team to have any shot at competing in this conference that has to change. As for Stanford… well, Stanford is as Stanford does. It doesn’t seem to matter how bad QB Kevin Hogan plays. The defense will bail the offense out a half-dozen times. The other team will have at least one big play called back by penalty. And the Cardinal will generally win. So it goes.

Washington State got a season-saving win at Utah Saturday night, coming back from 21-0 and 27-10 holes to upend the previously undefeated Utes 28-27. It was a nice win for the Cougars, who truly deserved to win. Utah’s offense was curiously anemic against WSU’s famously soft D, failing to produce anything on offense outside of one long run. Then the defense collapsed in the fourth, costing the Utes a chance at a 4-0 start. I didn’t expect Utah to be a real player in the South race, but it was possible with a victory. Wazzu has an uphill climb to get back to bowl eligibility, but it’s nip-and-tuck wins like this that will make it happen.

The final game of the week was unfortunately a dud, as Oregon State stumbled to a 35-10 defeat in L.A. USC is a better team than the Beavers, but OSU showed a surprising lack of composure. I’m still not convinced the Trojans are that great, and all the Beavs could manage on offense was a field goal. Part of the problem was QB Sean Mannion, who turned in possibly the worst game of his career. However, the overall issue seems to be that OSU just isn’t very good. This team is in about the same place as it was last year, minus a superstar receiver in Brandin Cooks. Seven wins feels about right. SC is definitely one of the South favorites, although we’ll be able to confirm that – or not – this week against ASU.

If Taylor Kelly plays this week everything changes. I like ASU’s offense regardless, but Kelly makes the Sun Devils a whole different beast. It’s not exactly going out on a limb to predict a big day for the Trojans offense. If Kelly is good to go, Sparky can make this a shootout. I don’t know if ASU can win a grind-it-out affair. There’s a reason people still have faith in this SC squad: the Trojans have some athletes the Sun Devils can’t match. At one month into the season, though, this might be when USC’s depth issue (due to sanctions) rears its ugly head. I hope that’s not the case.

The Arizona – Oregon game Thursday is one people have been waiting for. On paper, the Ducks should cruise. ‘Zona’s defense is pretty bad, the offense has been up and down since the opener and the Wildcats are starting a freshman QB at Autzen. That feels like a recipe for disaster. But any honest Oregon fan could point out the biggest problem for UO so far this season: pass defense. The Ducks, whether by accident or design, have been content to drop everyone into soft coverage and let teams carve it up underneath. That’s a problem against the talented UA receivers, who can really make teams pay. Oregon should win, but the huge line (24 points) seems high.

Stanford gets a small chance at revenge for 2012’s Bad Officiating masterpiece when it returns to Notre Dame Stadium. The Cardinal haven’t looked great against quality competition this year, but I’m very hesitant to accept this Fighting Irish team is the real deal. They’re 4-0, but they haven’t played anyone. Stanford absolutely has what it takes to go on the road and get another gritty, ugly win. It’s so hard to trust this team, though. Will Hogan come through, or will the embattled Cardinal QB drop another multiple-turnover dud? Can the D save the offense yet again? Is Notre Dame really that good? We’ll find out Saturday.

Oregon State had better beware – this is not the same Colorado Buffaloes team from last year. Going into Folsom Field isn’t an easy task for any team, especially one playing there for the first time in 50 years. CU has improved substantially over the past couple of seasons and is finally ready to start competing – if not contending – in the Pac-12. OSU has looked shaky thus far. The Beavers are a better team, but if enough goes right for the Buffs early we could see this become a solid game. At the very least, it shouldn’t be a repeat of 2013’s 44-17 laugher in Corvallis.

It will be interesting to see how UCLA responds at home against Utah after notching its biggest win of the season. Utah’s reaction to that heartbreaking loss to WSU will also be intriguing. This was very nearly a matchup of two undefeated (and presumably ranked) teams. Can the Bruins keep the momentum going from that ridiculous outburst against the Sun Devils? They shouldn’t need to in order to win, but the Utes are a feisty bunch and will be smarting from last week’s frustrating finish. I expect Utah to keep it close for a half before falling too far behind… unless UCLA reverts to its early-season form.

The other late game is Cal at WSU, which should give us yet another marvelous reason to watch the Bears. Cal has played back-to-back high-scoring thrillers and there’s no real reason to expect anything different this week. I don’t think the Cougars are any better than Arizona, who the Bears should have beat. This collision of Air Raid attacks should feature roughly 120 passes and could even challenge Cal’s game last week with Colorado in the “TD passes thrown” department. I favor the Cougs at home, but there’s something about this improved Bears squad that I like. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it go either way.

Random Thoughts and Observations

There’s been so much turmoil around the Michigan program it’s hard to know where to begin with this. Let’s start with the facts. The Wolverines are the most successful program in FBS history, with 912 wins. They have the second-highest winning percentage of all time at .731, are third in recognized national championships with 11 and are one of only four teams to hold a winning record versus every conference, including independents (the others are Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee). This is a top-five program all-time any way you look at it. So why does it feel like UM has fallen into an irreparable state of decay? There are several factors, but in my estimation it stems from a toxic combination of arrogance, ignorance and unwillingness to adapt to the changing football landscape.

Since longtime coach Lloyd Carr (a disciple of legendary head man Bo Schembechler) was forced into retirement following the 2007 season, the Wolverines have taken a wild ride on the coaching carousel. At the time, Carr was viewed as a man who had seen the game pass him by, unable to respond to the new up-tempo spread attacks taking over the sport. This notion undoubtedly gained traction following the 2006 regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, when the previously stout Wolverines D was shredded by the Buckeyes’ spread offense. It was then bolstered after the stunning loss to Appalachian State to start the 2007 season and subsequent blowout defeat at the hands of Oregon, both of which ran fast-paced, futuristic spreads. Carr was said to be a coach who didn’t use his program’s talent to the best of its ability.

The move was not without controversy. Carr, after all, had led the team to the 1997 national title. More importantly, he was a “Michigan Man,” a nebulous term used in Ann Arbor for decades to describe players and coaches who did things the Right Way, from academics to sportsmanship to – above all – loyalty to the university. Carr had served under Schembechler, the ultimate Michigan Man, who is revered to this day by the Wolverine faithful. However, ultimately disappointment over how the 2007 season (with sky-high expectations) ended won out. Carr was gone.

Enter Rich Rodriguez. One of the early architects of the spread and zone-read, Rodriguez had built a minor dynasty at West Virginia. His teams led the now-defunct Big East out of the dark period that followed the defections of Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College to the ACC (the move that triggered the chain reaction of all conference realignment since) and reshaped the entire conference with style and substance, including a massive 2005 Sugar Bowl upset of SEC champion Georgia. Michigan, naturally, figured the best way to beat the spread was to hire a master of it. Unfortunately for all parties, this was destined to look like a knee-jerk reaction.

Rodriguez, for all his faults (which we’ll get to), was placed in a no-win situation. From the start, his tenure was marred by a not-insignificant faction of Michigan boosters and supporters who viewed their new coach with suspicion, if not downright disdain. Rodriguez was not a Michigan Man. He was a country bumpkin, born and raised in West Virginia. What right did he have to lead the great Michigan Wolverines? To make matters worse, Rodriguez wanted to change the entire identity of Michigan football, moving the team into a multiple-receiver offense that emphasized speed over power.

Never mind that this was exactly what the administration had in mind when Rodriguez was hired. It was a flagrant violation of the Michigan Way, of time-honored Big Ten principles such as running the ball downhill and bludgeoning opposing defenses into submission. The new offense was viewed as a fad, a gimmick, one that couldn’t possibly succeed in a “real” conference. Many players even bought into this and left the program. In this regard, Rodriguez was doomed from the start.

History has proved those doubters wrong. Even while Rodriguez posted middling records during his three-year tenure, Michigan’s offense was superb, going from 20 points per game in his first season to nearly 33 in his last. Moreover, the success nationwide of spread tactics has shown the “three yards and a cloud of dust” crowd to be woefully behind the times. The spread is here to stay. However, Rodriguez’s 15-22 record (largely due to his poor defenses) convinced the old guard they were right all along about this charlatan who didn’t play “big-boy football.” Rodriguez was fired in 2010.

All of this is not to say Rodriguez was blameless. He was, and remains, a mediocre defensive coach. The lack of progress made by his third season was not promising. NCAA sanctions regarding unauthorized extra practices were a black eye for the program. Yet there is little doubt he knows how to design quality offenses. His success at West Virginia and now Arizona speaks to that. Rodriguez’s ignominious time in Ann Arbor illustrates the importance of cohesion between an athletic department, a coach and a fan base. He was set up to fail, and he did.

However, the worst part of Rodriguez’s legacy at Michigan is the errant philosophical mindset he engendered among Wolverines boosters and higher-ups. Here was all the proof they had ever needed that spread offenses were nothing but smoke and mirrors. What the team needed in order to turn around was a return to Michigan football: running the ball from the I-formation and playing defense. That was what had worked for decades and what would still work now. With that in mind, UM hired Brady Hoke in 2011.

Hoke is an interesting case. Prior to his arrival at Michigan he was viewed as something of a defensive mastermind. He had only ever coached at mid-major schools, but spent time at UM as an assistant, so he qualified as a Michigan Man. The national narrative was that he would return the Wolverines to their roots with pro-style offensive formations and tough-minded D – just what Michigan wanted. And lo and behold, it worked: in Hoke’s first season UM won 11 games and upset Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Hosannas rang out in Ann Arbor, for Michigan was surely “back.”

The picture is a little grimmer now. After riding Rodriguez’s excellent classes (he did recruit well) to that sterling record in 2011, the Wolverines stumbled to 8-5 and 7-6 finishes the next two years and have started 2014 2-3. The defense has declined each of the past two seasons. To make matters worse, Michigan had an ugly and embarrassing episode last week when Hoke allowed QB Shane Morris to return to the field following a concussion, then compounded that error by claiming Morris “said he was fine.” Not only did this fly in the face of any injury protocol (let alone for concussions), it made Hoke look confused and oblivious to player safety. The rally on campus Tuesday to oust Hoke and athletic director Dave Brandon looked even worse.

So what happened? Did Hoke forget how to coach? Going back through his previous stops, the answer seems a little more obvious. Hoke spent six season at Ball State, going 4-8, 2-9, 4-7, 5-7, 7-6 and 12-1. Which season seems like the outlier? Nevertheless, it was enough for San Diego State to hire him before the Cardinals’ bowl game in 2008. Hoke promptly went 4-8, then 9-4 before moving on to Michigan. Once again, a program decided one good year was enough to qualify him as a great coach.

Combined with his in-progress numbers at UM, Hoke is 75-66 overall in 11-plus seasons as a head coach. His best years at each school are marked by one very specific thing: exceptional QB play. In 2008, Hoke’s middling tenure at Ball State was jolted to life by a 12-0 regular season, led by Nate Davis, the school’s all-time leading passer (at the time). Hoke parlayed that into a new job, where, after a 4-8 debut, he went 9-4, thanks to Ryan Lindley, who would finish his career as that school’s all-time leading passer. Once again, Hoke got a new gig. In his first year on the job, Michigan’s Denard Robinson – definitely an up-and-down player, but inarguably the most electric QB the Wolverines have ever had – posted a career-best 36 TD’s. What’s the common denominator here?

I don’t think Hoke is a bad coach, but it seems apparent he’s an average one who capitalized on some good fortune to move to a job above his station. I don’t blame him, but the on-field results speak for themselves. I doubt he makes it out of this season as the Wolverines’ head coach, and after this concussion incident, he shouldn’t. That would send the team right back to where it was not just four years ago, but seven; except this time, the old methods have failed. Michigan is not viewed as favorably as a coaching destination as it was when Carr left. The spread didn’t work. The old-school approach didn’t work. UM is 1-9 against Ohio State the last decade. It’s a dark time for the Wolverines. But after going through the events that led to this point, it’s hard to argue the program didn’t bring it upon itself.

Stanzi Watch

There were a couple of Stanzis this week I didn’t feel good about handing out because the players who earned them otherwise played so well. But rules are rules. I can’t go easy on guys because they also threw for a couple of scores. Turnovers are the biggest controllable factor for QB’s. As such, Week 5 saw the most weekly Stanzi winners ever, as an astounding 12 signal-callers picked up close wins despite handing the ball to the opposition. We also got out first two-time Stanzi-er of the season. Here are this week’s winners and the overall standings.

Daxx Garman, Oklahoma State

Opponent: Texas Tech

Performance: Two INT, held on for 10-point win

Hutson Mason, Georgia

Opponent: Tennessee

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Patrick Towles, Kentucky

Opponent: Vanderbilt

Performance: One INT (for TD), three FUM (lost two), won by 10

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State

Opponent: Boston College

Performance: Two INT, won by 3

James Knapke, Bowling Green

Opponent: Massachusetts

Performance: Three INT, won by five

Jameis Winston, Florida State

Opponent: North Carolina State

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 15

Reggie Bonnafon, Louisville

Opponent: Wake Forest

Performance: Two FUM (one for TD), won by 10

Jared Goff, California

Opponent: Colorado

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Kevin Hogan, Stanford

Opponent: Washington

Performance: One INT, two FUM, won by seven

Logan Woodside, Toledo

Opponent: Central Michigan

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 14

Everett Golson, Notre Dame

Opponent: Syracuse

Performance: Two INT, three FUM (lost two), won by 16

Connor Halliday, Washington State

Opponent: Utah

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), one FUM, won by one

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State: 1

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufau, Colorado: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 1

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 1

The real season has begun. Thank goodness.