To Zi or not Stanzi

National Overview

Two more down. Baylor and Notre Dame exited the ranks of the unbeaten Saturday, one in a blaze of glory and another in a blaze of... awful defense. It shouldn’t be hard to figure out which team was which. The top five wasn’t the only place to see shakeups, though. Oklahoma – the ostensible Big 12 favorite – was almost assuredly eliminated from playoff contention after a second loss (to Kansas State). Dark horse Oklahoma State suffered a similar fate, getting thrashed by TCU. Stanford was also knocked out of the title chase after another offensive flop, leaving the SEC essentially unchallenged at the top of the polls.

The week started with a bang on Thursday (not counting Tuesday’s Louisiana-Lafayette – Texas State game) when Oregon State took Utah to double-overtime. The Utes are still a wild card in the Pac-12 South with their quarterback situation unsettled but could end up having a huge impact before everything is said and done. Saturday morning saw the two Big 12 upsets, as Baylor wilted in Morgantown and Oklahoma fell apart at home. Alabama annihilated Texas A&M 59-0 to stay relevant, while UCLA kept its slim hopes alive by narrowly edging Cal.

Marshall blasted FIU to remain the only undefeated mid-major. The Thundering Herd will likely finish 12-0 but be left out of the playoff because the schedule strength just isn’t there. Oregon pounded Washington yet again to remain the North’s leader, while Notre Dame fell to FSU in a result that will probably doom the Fighting Irish’s playoff bid. If ND finishes with one loss there’s a chance, but the Irish face a fairly daunting slate in the next month and a half.

The pickings are rather slim this week, considering where we are in the season. Michigan is at Michigan State, but that rivalry has taken a turn for the worse in recent years. West Virginia is at Oklahoma State in a surprisingly meaningful Big 12 contest. We’ll get to see if Ole Miss’ upset of Alabama was a fluke when the Rebels travel to LSU, while Auburn hosts South Carolina in another test for the Tigers. The Pac-12 has a good night lineup, featuring USC at Utah and Arizona State – Washington. Unfortunately, that’s about it.

Playoff Poll

I’m not sure how we got here this fast, but the discussion has already shifted to which one-loss team is the most worthy. The top three teams are easy. It’s where we go from there that makes this confusing.

1) Mississippi State vs. 4) Oregon

2) Florida State vs. 3) Ole Miss

The Mississippi schools are obvious, although I anticipate at least one loss for both of them – at Alabama is the most likely candidate for MSU, while Auburn’s visit to Ole Miss could be the Rebs’ undoing. FSU is probably safe for the remainder of the regular season, considering the dearth of talent in the ACC. Oregon is the tough one, beating out a host of other one-loss schools.

Second Tier

Michigan State

Alabama

Auburn

TCU

The Spartans are still hiding in plain sight, waiting for the smoke to clear. Alabama finally looked like Alabama against Texas A&M. Auburn was off, but TCU made a statement that the collapse against Baylor was a fluke. Oregon beats out these teams by virtue of “best win.”

Third Tier

Notre Dame

Georgia

Kansas State

Baylor

Notre Dame acquitted itself well in Tallahassee and deserves to stay in the conversation, if only peripherally. Georgia has crept back into contention, but I’m skeptical of the Dawgs chances given how much better the SEC West is than the East. Kansas State and Baylor both have one loss and would need to win out to garner any support for the playoff.

Pac-12 Report

I guess I was right about Utah – Oregon State. The Beavers certainly had their chances, holding the Utes to 62 yards passing and still losing in double overtime. You can’t blow opportunities like that in the Pac-12 and expect to have a successful season. Utah is good – the defense, in particular, is powerful – but not elite. OSU’s offensive issues are no longer a matter of “fixing” something that’s broken. The Beavs simply don’t have very many playmakers. To have any chance at a bowl they’ll need to rely on the D, which has been excellent to this point. Without a reprieve from the offense, though, things could spiral out of control quickly.

UCLA managed to survive a back-and-forth affair with Cal to remain relevant in at least the conference title chase, but it wasn’t pretty. Good though the Bears may be offensively, there’s no excuse for a team with the Bruins’ talent to need all 60 minutes to put the game away. There’s something just off about this squad. It’s hard to tell if it’s the coaching, the players or the difficult schedule, but UCLA hasn’t looked right all season. Cal, on the other hand, has looked solid. It’s a shame the remaining schedule is so tough, because this team deserves to go to a bowl.

As expected, USC crushed Colorado, knocking the Buffaloes down to 0-4 in conference play. It’s no surprise CU is still the doormat of the South, but the performance since the 2-2 start is a little troubling. The Trojans, meanwhile, have moved to 4-1 and sit atop the division, at least until Arizona State wins again. Could that Hail Mary be the difference between a Pac-12 title and a second-place South finish? Gulp. SC is still in good shape, but not controlling one’s own destiny is a little scary.

Oregon clobbered Washington yet again in a series that has increasingly begun to look routine. UO has beaten the spread each of the last 11 meetings and won by an average of just more than 25 points – exactly what the difference was Saturday. It doesn’t seem to matter where the game is played or even if the Huskies have advantages (such as their great defensive front this year), the result is the same. At 1-2 with losses to Oregon and Stanford, UW is firmly out of the North race for the time being. The Ducks appeared to be back in form… but we’ll only know for sure if they can keep this up.

Lastly, there was the oddity that was Stanford – ASU. It never felt like the Cardinal were particularly engaged with the game or even really in it, but they weren’t mathematically eliminated until the final minutes. The defense, at least, is still mostly there. The offense is another story. Stanford has been so bad it’s surprising there haven’t been more calls for a quarterback change, although I’m not sure anyone could move the ball with the way the O-line has been playing. ASU is trending up, Stanford down.

Oregon and Cal play Friday in Santa Clara to start the Pac-12’s weekend off. There should be points in this one. UO looked good against Washington’s anemic attack but the Bears are a different story. Fortunately for the Ducks, Cal’s defense is so terrible one or two stops should do it. I don’t see the Bears holding Oregon to less than 40, and even with some of UO’s defensive concerns it’s hard to imagine the Ducks giving up that many points. It may take a while to pull away, but it’ll happen.

Surely UCLA wouldn’t continue to struggle at Colorado, right? This has the feel of the perfect kind of get-right game the Bruins could desperately use. If not… nearly losing to Cal was bad enough. The voters put their trust in you, UCLA! You’re back in the top 25! Don’t let those good* people down. The Buffs have a shot if they return to the scrappy play that defined them in September, but I’m not optimistic. UCLA will finally put together a complete game in Boulder and look like the team that got so much hype in the preseason.

*Debatable

Oregon State is at Stanford in an increasingly tight series that has seen its past two games go down to the wire. The argument can be made that the Beavers should have won both of the last two years and they’ll surely be out for some revenge. Unfortunately, OSU’s offense might make that a bit difficult. Unless the Beavs can find some magic solution this week, the Cardinal’s stout defense figures to make like miserable for QB Sean Mannion again. Of course, the same could be said of Stanford’s offense, and the OSU defense is no slouch either. This contest has the potential to be very, very ugly.

Arizona is at WSU in what I would have absolutely called a trap game had the Wildcats not fallen to USC last week. The Cougars can play with almost anyone – it’s just the winning thing they have trouble with – and that will be true against UA. The Air Raid should do its Air Raid-y thing at home, which could lead to a shootout. Wazzu has struggled against good offenses but is still very dangerous. The ‘Cats had better beware. I’ll take Arizona, but it’s not a lock.

Raise your hand if you thought Utah would be ranked higher than USC when the teams met in Salt Lake City. I’m thinking no one saw that coming. The Utes have impressed so far, playing great defense and moving within one fourth-quarter collapse of a 6-0 start. They have to be considered a South player. However… I think SC wins. The Trojans typically do well when matched up with similarly pro-styled teams (like Stanford) and the Utes’ QB situation is beyond a mess. This feels like a “take back the power” game for the visitors.

The second half of the nightcap features Arizona State at Washington in a huge game for both sides. ASU needs to stay ahead of USC and can’t afford to stumble in one of its easier remaining games (crazy, but true). UW has already lost to the two presumed North heavyweights and has to win to have any faint hope of a backdoor division title. The Sun Devils romped in Tempe last season, but both teams have seen enough turnover to make that fairly irrelevant. ASU is probably just the better squad, but like Oregon has the potential to struggle when its spread gets disrupted by a dominant front. Washington can win here. I’m not sure they will.

Heisman Watch

It’s still pretty much a two- or three-man race at this point. Off-field troubles are going to exclude at least two expected finalists, so the field isn’t particularly compelling. If the unbeatens are eliminated, we’ll see things get interesting.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Mariota is on another long interception-free streak and has been his usual stellar self all year. It would take a lot – like a couple more losses and poor play – to knock him out of the running.

Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State

Once again, Prescott is a very nice college player that has absolutely no hope of succeeding at the next level. As a Heisman candidate, though, he’s practically perfect. The QB of the top-ranked team is always a favorite.

Everett Golson, QB, Notre Dame

Golson acquitted himself well in the FSU loss. If the Fighting Irish run the table the rest of the way and move back into playoff contention, odds are Golson will end up in New York.

Trevone Boykin, QB,TCU

He’ll have his shot against Kansas State and West Virginia. Voters are probably a little reticent about Boykin at the moment given his spotty history, but he definitely has the ability to put together some great numbers.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Brian Kelly can complain about the offensive interference penalty that ended the FSU game all he wants. It doesn’t change the fact that it was absolutely the right call. “Pick” plays, which have become increasing common during the rise of the spread, are shady territory at best and quite often completely illegal. The degree to which receivers turn to actually look for a pass is tantamount to the success of the play; it has to at least appear that the WR’s are running routes.

That wasn’t the case at all on the overturned touchdown. Two Notre Dame receivers clearly blocked defenders out of the play before the ball was thrown. That’s the definition of offensive pass interference. Kelly has come out with two bizarre statements on the call, saying that officials “changed their mind” about the player who committed the penalty and that the Irish “ran the same play earlier” and the officials didn’t call it. It doesn’t matter which player was flagged – they were both committing the same infraction. Additionally, the idea that because the team cheated before to score, it should allowed to do so again is ludicrous. Kelly should be happy it was only called once.

Baylor’s flop on the road at West Virginia wasn’t exactly unprecedented. The Bears had a similar performance to end an undefeated season last year at Oklahoma State. What was surprising was how much better the Mountaineers looked. WVU outgained Baylor 456-318, held the Bears to a paltry 95 yards rushing on 42 carries and actually lost the turnover battle 3-0. To still win by double-digits implies some pretty impressive domination on both sides of the ball. As a bonus, the two teams combined for 32 penalties for an outrageous 353 yards, including a Big 12-record 215 for Baylor.

Special recognition needs to be made for Missouri, which napalmed Florida at the Swamp 42-13 (in a game that was 42-0 in the third quarter). Mizzou scored on a kickoff return TD to start the game and a punt return TD, sack/fumble TD AND interception return TD in the third quarter. The Tigers should be happy. Such a feat probably won’t be duplicated for decades in Columbia. Will Muschamp should be looking for a new job. This has gotten out of hand.

Stanzi Watch

In either one or two weeks’ time, depending on how the weekly awards shake out, I’ll apply the multi-winner cutoff. Players will still be able to leap onto the semifinalist board, but I won’t waste space listing each of the one-time winners. This past week saw another great crop of Stanzi performances, including a remarkable five players (out of eight) who notched their second award of the season. Stunningly, none of them was our two leaders. Here are this week’s winners and the standings:

Chad Voytik, Pittsburgh

Opponent: Virginia Tech

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by four

Kendal Thompson, Utah

Opponent: Oregon State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won* in double-OT

*Note: Thompson was benched after his second turnover and thus doesn’t really fit the Stanzi criteria… but he was bad enough I think he should get one anyway

Justin Holman, UCF

Opponent: Tulane

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Clint Trickett, West Virginia

Opponent: Baylor

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 14

C.J. Brown, Maryland

Opponent: Iowa

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Brett Hundley, UCLA

Opponent: Cal

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by two

Davis Webb, Texas Tech

Opponent: Kansas

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 13

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss

Opponent: North Texas

Performance: Two INT, won by 10

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2

Justin Holman, UCF: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 2

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Connor Halliday, Washington State: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane: 1

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1

Reggie Bonnafon, Louisville: 1

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 1

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Jared Goff, Cal: 1

Bryce Petty, Baylor: 1

Chad Voytik, Pittsburgh: 1

Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 1

Clint Trickett, West Virginia: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Hutson Mason: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufau, Colorado: 1

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 1

Brian Burell, Fresno State: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Kendal Thompson, Utah: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

That’s 10 multi-Stanzi guys! 10! Through eight weeks of action! I can’t imagine how this could possibly get any more entertaining – which is why it will, of course. We’re starting to hit attrition season, when teams’ depth exposes who they really are. Should be fun.