The BCS was human after all

National Overview

It’s a little-known fact that Socrates was referring to college football when he said true wisdom comes from admitting one knows nothing. After Week 7 a mere six unbeatens remain: Florida State, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Baylor, Marshall and… Notre Dame. It’s unlikely the four playoff contestants will come exclusively from this group, because four of the six play each other and Marshall won’t have the necessary strength of schedule. Heck, Baylor might not. So what now?

MSU should be the nation’s top team after knocking off LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn in consecutive weeks. Yes, LSU is now unranked and A&M should be, but that’s still a monstrous group to face in less than a month’s time. Florida State and Ole Miss are, in some order, the next teams in line. Things would be more clear had Texas A&M not looked so bad throughout SEC play. That’s not really fair to the Rebels, who had the misfortune of simply playing the Aggies a week later than the Bulldogs, but such is the unforgiving world of college football. The Seminoles have mostly sleepwalked through a garbage ACC schedule and finally get a chance for a big statement against Notre Dame this week.

The Fighting Irish had yet another close call with a bad North Carolina squad but once again survived to keep their playoff hopes alive. Without a conference affiliation and thus no chance for a 13^th game before the postseason, Notre Dame will likely need to go undefeated to make the final four. That can definitely happen, as long as the Irish beat FSU this week. I’m skeptical of that outcome considering the game is in Tallahassee. However, if there’s one thing Notre Dame is it’s opportunistic, and the ‘Noles have clearly taken a step back this year with their sloppy play. Should be a good game.

It seems official that Mississippi State is now the 2014 version of last year’s Auburn team: a fast, athletic group that excels at running the ball and controlling the clock. God help the Bulldogs if they ever have to throw to win a game, but after the Tigers rode that formula to a near-title last season all bets are off. MSU is now the prohibitive favorite to win the West, I guess. It’s still very hard to trust this team with the games still remaining – at Alabama and Ole Miss – and the potential of an upset/letdown in the SEC Championship.

Baylor completed an epic comeback against TCU to stay unbeaten, though the Big 12 has always felt like a two-team league. Oklahoma lost to the Horned Frogs last week, but it still seems overwhelmingly likely the OU – Baylor game will decide the conference title (remember, the 10-team Big 12 is the only power league without a conference championship game). Good for Baylor, but the real test will come in a few weeks after both teams get a couple a weak tune-ups in the meantime.

The other big news from the weekend came from out west, where Oregon effectively ended the charade known as UCLA and USC knocked off an over-ranked Arizona squad to re-take control of the South Division, if only momentarily. The Ducks control their own destiny in the Pac-12 race, but more importantly actually looked like the old UO again. More on this in the Pac-12 section, where I’ll break down the only league more confusing than the SEC.

There’s a very exciting matchup Thursday night, when newly-ranked Utah meets Oregon State in Corvallis. A couple of good Big 12 contests kick off the weekend in Baylor – West Virginia and Kansas State – Oklahoma, while Texas A&M tries to save its season at Alabama. Oklahoma State and TCU complete the biggest week of the season for the Big 12, while Washington – Oregon and Stanford – Arizona State supply this week’s Pac-12 drama. Notre Dame and FSU play in primetime.

Playoff Poll

Once again, a shakeup. At this point I’m as confused anyone. The second and third tiers also see some movement, as we begin to question what we thought we knew about certain contenders.

College Football Playoff

1) Mississippi State vs. 4) Baylor

2) Florida State vs. 3) Ole Miss

MSU is a no brainer, even if I think the Bulldogs will drop one at some point. FSU gets the benefit of the doubt for a week, when the Notre Dame game should largely decide its fate. Ole Miss moves up one slot, while Baylor sneaks in over a group of other contenders.

Second Tier

Oregon

Michigan State

Oklahoma

Now the week-to-week movement becomes more pronounced. Oregon is back on the bubble, logically moving past Michigan State. Oklahoma didn’t look great against Texas, but that rivalry tends to be very close even when the teams are mismatched.

Third Tier

Notre Dame

Alabama

TCU

Notre Dame was in my third tier last week and shouldn’t move up after a close call against North Carolina. TCU is still in the Big 12 mix after the heartbreaking Baylor loss but will need to run the table from here on out. Alabama drops after an ugly win because the Crimson Tide haven’t beaten anyone.

Pac-12 Report

The death knell has nearly sounded for Washington State (though hopefully not for head coach Mike Leach’s time in Pullman). If the opening loss to Rutgers didn’t raise a red flag, the succeeding one to Nevada certainly did and it’s pretty much been downhill from there. Save for a great defensive effort and fourth-quarter comeback against Utah, the Cougars have simply not improved enough in the third year of the Leach era to contend in the Pac-12. Thursday saw WSU fall to 2-5 at Stanford in a depressingly predictable contest, with the Cardinal outgaining the Cougs by more than 200 yards and allowing a mere five of 19 third-down conversions.

From a basic schematic perspective, WSU’s struggles with Stanford clearly stem from Leach’s Air Raid system, which, despite its many strengths, is particularly ill-equipped to beat the Cardinal. The rigidity of the Air Raid, such as its insistence on four-receiver sets and near-refusal to run the ball, can work well against many opponents. But Stanford’s dominant front, populated with pass-rushers capable of quickly beating their blockers one-on-one, makes everything much more difficult for the Air Raid. Other spread teams like Oregon (even in losses to the Cardinal) have a great deal more flexibility when the primary offensive focus isn’t working, whereas the Cougars more or less have to try to pass their way out of any problems. The result sometimes isn’t pretty.

Washington – Cal was notable for being the first time all season we’ve seen either team play as expected. UW finally looked like the defensive force it was supposed to be, while the Bears actually looked overmatched for once. The Huskies built a giant lead, capitalized on Cal’s mistakes and bounced back nicely after the bumbling Stanford loss (and bye). We’ve gotten used to seeing the Bears look competent on the field this year, but this could be a potential turning point. The remaining six games are brutal: UCLA, Oregon, at Oregon State, at USC, Stanford and BYU. If only Cal had beaten Arizona! Two more wins to get to bowl eligibility seems like a lot to ask for from that schedule.

Oregon also rebounded nicely from a disappointing loss to throttle UCLA in Pasadena. I’ve been calling for it for a while and I think the national media is finally catching on – UCLA isn’t very good. In theory, there’s loads of talent on the Bruins’ roster, but you wouldn’t know that watching this team. UO smacked UCLA around for three quarters before the backups allowed the final score to look respectable, but make no mistake, this was a beatdown. It bodes well for the Ducks that getting one lineman – left tackle Jake Fisher – back from injury made this much of a difference, but the Bruins are in a world of trouble. My prediction from August that this squad was all hype seems to be coming true.

The last game of the week was Arizona’s upset loss to USC, if you can really call it that. Reactionary rankings happen all the time, but ‘Zona moving from unranked to 10^th in the last poll was especially egregious. Look, the Wildcats are a good team. They played well against Oregon. But that was the first time all year UA had gotten a win of any quality and it came against a team that not only played poorly but was also down FOUR offensive linemen. Simply put, the Wildcats are not great. USC is flat-out better, despite being coached by Steve Sarkisian. The Trojans have the inside track to the title game again, because Arizona State (which holds the tiebreaker over SC) faces a murderer’s row the final seven games.*

*You thought Cal’s slate was nasty? How about Stanford, at Washington, Utah, Notre Dame, at Oregon State, Washington State and at Arizona? Yikes.

So, how about that Utah – Oregon State matchup? This is a very interesting contest that should make for great TV. I like Utah, which should be 5-0 and leading the South. The Utes appear to finally be ready to play for real in the Pac-12. But I also like OSU, a team that isn’t getting nearly enough credit going into this week. Reser Stadium is not an easy place to play and the Beavers defense has been impressively stout so far this year. I very much doubt OSU quarterback Sean Mannion is going to play as badly as he did at USC and the week off could only help the Beavs, a team that has seen a fair amount of injuries already. Moreover, how much do we know about Utes QB Kendal Thompson? He played fantastic against UCLA, taking over for the ineffective Travis Wilson, but that was the first extensive game action of his career. Oregon State could easily win this game.

UCLA is also on upset alert (although is it really an upset at this point?) at Cal. The Bears, as I said previously, badly need to win to keep the dream of a bowl game alive. They could find some traction against the wounded Bruins. To be clear, UCLA is the far more talented side and should win handily. The Bruins have the defensive athleticism to hem in the “Bear Raid” and the offensive firepower to make short work of the talent-strapped Bears D. Strange things can happen in this series, though. The teams have traded home blowouts the past four seasons despite Cal not being all that good… and UCLA won last year in Pasadena.

Colorado at USC is the only conference game this weekend that figures to be a complete dud, as CU – though much improved from the last two seasons – simply doesn’t have the horses (or Buffaloes, I guess) to keep up with SC. I don’t have a lot of faith in the coaching in L.A., but that shouldn’t matter too much against the talented, albeit thin, Trojans. Look for USC to revive the up-tempo attack it showed early in the year. It worked well against inferior competition before, so why not now? The Buffs will need a big game from QB Sefo Liufau to stay competitive and that still might not be enough.

Washington and Oregon renew their contentious rivalry in Eugene, though to be honest the rivalry could use some spicing up. UO has been quiet in victory, UW quiet in defeat these past ten years. As an Oregon fan I certainly don’t want to see anything but a big Ducks victory, sure. But nastiness has given way to respect (at least between the players) during this decade-long streak. The Huskies have the front seven capable of slowing Oregon’s offense to a crawl, which will be crucial because I don’t think the offense can win it alone. UW isn’t dynamic enough to win a shootout, so it will be up to the defense – particularly the line – to ground the Ducks and turn the game into a slugfest. Oregon should win… but the last time this team was a three-touchdown favorite at home, things didn’t go as planned.

The nightcap is Stanford at Arizona State, a matchup the Cardinal dominated in two meetings last year. ASU’s explosive but small offense had no answer for the monstrous Cardinal front, which forced the Sun Devils into short gains and miscues time and time again. The teams aren’t exactly the same this year. Stanford’s offense has, if anything, gotten worse. The same is true for the ASU D. However, in the end I expect this contest to end in similar fashion as in 2013 – with the Cardinal grinding things out, bleeding the clock and containing the Sun Devils’ big-play ability. Kevin Hogan not playing like garbage at QB would help.

Heisman Watch

The Heisman list is usually crowded at this point in the season. Not so this year. Surprisingly, upsets and off-field incidents have sapped the field of several contenders. FSU QB Jameis Winston is assuredly out. Georgia running back Todd Gurley might be suspended for the year. Baylor QB Bryce Petty weathered an early injury and has to play catch-up. Right now, these are the only guys worthy of consideration.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Mariota is almost certainly the best player in the country and proves it every time he doesn’t have to play with three backup offensive linemen.

Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State

Prescott isn’t nearly the QB Mariota is, but he’s the type of gritty runner-passer who often garners Heisman buzz – especially on an undefeated team.

Evertt Golson, QB, Notre Dame

Golson has been inconsistent lately but was much improved at the start of the season and voters would love to see another winner from Notre Dame.

Random Thoughts and Observations

It’s time to re-evaluate the SEC West. Before the year started it looked like a three-team race between perennial heavyweights Alabama, LSU and Auburn, with Ole Miss as a potential dark horse. Two weeks into the season, Texas A&M had thrown its hat into the ring as well, creating a five-team minefield. When Mississippi State upset LSU in Week 5, it appeared nearly the entire division was playoff-worthy (and it’s not as if Arkansas is some patsy, either).

Now? The picture is somewhat less rosy. LSU has proved to be a pretender, with whispers that this is the worst Tigers defense under Les Miles. The same is true of Texas A&M, which got throttled in back-to-back weeks by the Mississippi schools. Ole Miss and MSU have been great, but Alabama and Auburn have been surprisingly pedestrian in many ways. Auburn should have lost to Kansas State and got beat by the first really good team it played, while Alabama… well, look at the Crimson Tide’s schedule and tell me exactly why this team has earned a top-ten poll spot.

The problem has been the domino effect, which has reared its head in several seasons of late. It all began this year with South Carolina, which has proved to be a mediocre squad. But in the preseason, the Gamecocks were ninth, which made Texas A&M’s blowout of SC on opening day highly impressive. The Aggies rode that “big” win to a No. 6 national ranking before getting exposed by the Mississippi schools. Mississippi State, in particular, benefitted from knocking off a “powerhouse” in A&M. Now, despite losing back-to-back games in decisive fashion, the Aggies are still ranked, because the teams that beat them are so good. What was a major contributing factor to Ole Miss and MSU being highly ranked? Beating A&M. There’s a problem here…

That’s not to say the SEC West isn’t a very tough division. It is. But despite the circuitous logic of the polls, it also clearly isn’t quite as dominant as September seemed to indicate. This is important to remember heading forward as the playoff committee begins to hash out the teams it thinks should get priority. Unless a very specific set of circumstances unfold, there’s no way a single division should get two teams into the playoff. That’s what the regular season of college football has always been about – weeding out teams in “one-game playoff” scenarios. The danger of moving to a true playoff has always been the potential of cheapening what is routinely called the greatest regular season in sports. The committee needs to ensure this doesn’t happen.

Speaking of the polls, well, even in the twilight of the BCS they’re proving just how fallible human voters are. This week, both the media and coaches’ polls have Michigan State above Oregon and Oklahoma over TCU. How does this pass the most basic logic test? All four teams have exactly one loss. Oregon beat Michigan State and TCU beat Oklahoma. On what planet does it make sense to have the Spartans and Sooners ranked ahead of the Ducks and Horned Frogs? For all the frustration with the BCS computers, it’s sobering to see that it was the human element that skewed the process all along.

Stanzi Watch

A three-time winner? Everett Golson may have this thing wrapped up before Halloween. Last season we didn’t get a single player with more than a pair of weekly Stanzis. Golson just notched his third in six games and there are already more two-time winners than all of last year. More proof that 2014 is turning into 2007, Part II. Here are this week’s winners and the updated standings.

Justin Holman, UCF

Opponent: BYU

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won in overtime

Everett Golson, Notre Dame

Opponent: North Carolina

Performance: One INT (for TD), two FUM, won by seven

Bryce Petty, Baylor

Opponent: TCU

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by three

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State

Opponent: Auburn

Performance: Two INT, won by 15

Daxx Garman, Oklahoma State

Opponent: Kansas

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston

Opponent: Memphis

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by four

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 2

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State:1

Justin Holman, UCF: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Conner Halliday, WSU: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane:1

Trevone, Boykin, TCU: 1

Reggie Bannafon, Louisville: 1

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 1

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Jared Goff, California: 1

Bryce Petty, Baylor: 1

Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Hutson Mason, Georgia: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufau, Colorado: 1

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Brian Burrell, Fresno State: 1

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

The Stanzi list will need to be cut soon, to make room for those serious about winning. There will be no one-time winners here, no sir! My money is on Golson, but that's the fun thing about this game: you never know until the final whistle blows.